Skip to content

Analysis

Updated TOP 10 Ratings

After all the races in June and July, it was time to update my TOP 10 Ratings page.

Here is a brief look at the changes:

  • After Andreas Raelert’s sub-par (for him) result in Frankfurt, his rating dropped to 8:16:50. This allowed Crowie to move into the first spot with his rating of 8:15:01. Andreas is still second.
  • Dirk Bockel moved up one spot based on his winning result in Regensburg.
  • Julie Dibens hasn’t raced an IM for more than a year, so she dropped out of my ratings. (I still have Chrissie and Karin Thürig in there, their last races were Kona 2011, so they’ll drop out in October.)
  • Similarly, Yvonne van Vlercken hasn’t posted an IM result – she had a number of DNFs. She also dropped out of the ratings.
  • The two “vacated” spots were taken up by Sonja Tajsich (now 8th with a rating of 9:26:20 after racing Challenge Roth) and Linsey Corbin (10th with 9:27:51 after IM Austria).
  • Rebekah Keat moved up a few spots with an improved rating of 9:24:34 – this is a result of adding the Challenge Copenhagen results from 2010 and 2011 (two races she won).

Kona 2012 – First Round (July) Qualifiers

The first round of qualifiers for Kona 2012 has been decided and will probably be announced by WTC in the next few days. But as there are no more races that hand out points, so we can already have a closer look.

My basis is the KPR standings and for the men, some additional well known athletes. I’ve annotated the WTC list with some more information:

  • Q – “Q”  if the athlete is a July qualifier
  • Validated – “no” if the athlete has not raced and IM
  • Raced Kona 2011 – “no” if the athlete wasn’t on the Kona start list

It remains to be seen if all athletes accept their slots (their were some declines last year). There will be second round of qualifiers at the end of August: 10 more for the men, and 5 more for the women.

Men

Q KPR rank Name Ctry KPR points Validated? Raced Kona 2011? Comment
Q 1. Craig Alexander AUS 13.970 automatic qualifier
Q 2. Andreas Raelert DEU 8.360
Q 3. Pete Jacobs AUS 7.305
Q 4. Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 7.230
Q 5. Cameron Brown NZL 6.840
Q 6. Sebastian Kienle DEU 6.590 no
Q 7. Timo Bracht DEU 6.000
Q 8. Marko Albert EST 5.640
Q 9. Faris Al-sultan DEU 5.490
Q 10. Frederik Van Lierde BEL 5.480
Q 11. Dirk Bockel LUX 5.450
Q 12. Mike Aigroz CHE 5.360
Q 13. Daniel Fontana ITA 5.280
Q 14. Petr Vabrousek CZE 5.260
Q 15. Clemente Alonso-McKernan ESP 5.120 no
Q 16. Ronnie Schildknecht CHE 5.100
Q 17. David Dellow AUS 5.000 no
Q 18. Raynard Tissink ZAF 4.910
Q 19. Joe Gambles AUS 4.830
Q 20. Viktor Zyemtsev UKR 4.810 no
Q 21. Eneko Llanos ESP 4.800
Q 22. Paul Matthews AUS 4.725 no
Q 23. Jérémy Jurkiewicz FRA 4.720 no
Q 24. Mike Schifferle CHE 4.700
Q 25. Paul Amey GBR 4.690
Q 26. Timothy Odonnell USA 4.645
Q 27. Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 4.610 no
Q 28. Luke Mckenzie AUS 4.570
Q 29. Romain Guillaume FRA 4.560 no
Q 30. Trevor Delsaut FRA 4.420 no
Q 31. Rasmus Henning DNK 4.380
Q 32. Cyril Viennot FRA 4.205
Q 33. Matthew Russell USA 4.180
Q 34. Tom Lowe GBR 4.110
Q 35. Joshua Rix AUS 4.095 no
Q 36. Luke Bell AUS 4.070
Q 37. Bruno Clerbout BEL 3.965 no
Q 38. Michael Lovato USA 3.925
Q 39. Alejandro Santamaria ESP 3.920 no
Q 40. Sergio Marques PRT 3.880
Q 41. Andy Potts USA 3.840
Q? 42. Michael Raelert DEU 3.830
43. Jason Shortis AUS 3.820 no
44. Aaron Farlow AUS 3.760 no
45. Tim Reed AUS 3.705
46. Andi Boecherer DEU 3.650 no was injured, plans to race Sweden
47. Leon Griffin AUS 3.645 no
48. Axel Zeebroek BEL 3.605
49. Clayton Fettell AUS 3.510 no
50. Bart Aernouts BEL 3.510 no
51. Ezequiel Morales ARG 3.400 no
52. Stefan Schmid DEU 3.360 no
53. Chris Lieto USA 3.310 no run injury, focuses on Las Vegas 70.3
54. Stephane Poulat FRA 3.160 no
55. Mathias Hecht CHE 3.120
56. Jozsef Major HUN 3.080
57. Brandon Marsh USA 3.080
58. Justin Daerr USA 3.020 no
59. Richie Cunningham USA 2.860 no no
60. Paul Ambrose GBR 2.840 no plans to race New York
63. Jan Raphael DEU 2.800
64. Balazs Csoke HUN 2.705
71. Maik Twelsiek DEU 2.430 plans to race New York
72. Ben Hoffman USA 2.415
73. Michael Goehner DEU 2.370
76. Lance Armstrong USA 2.305 no can’t race in WTC events because under doping investigation
Q 77. Greg Bennet USA 2.260 no automatic qualifier
79. Trevor Wurtele CAN 2.220
80. Matty Reed USA 2.215 no
84. Michael Weiss AUT 2.160 serving a two-year doping suspension
91. Ian Mikelson USA 2.050
96. Jordan Rapp USA 2.000 no plans to race New York and Canada
97. Matthew White AUS 1.980
100. Terenzo Bozzone NZL 1.940 no
Q 103. Chris McCormack AUS 1.880 no automatic qualifier
120. Bert Jammaer BEL 1.580
129. Torsten Abel DEU 1.400
130. Tj Tollakson USA 1.325 no plans to race New York
153. Courtney Ogden AUS 1.100
168. Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 1.000
337. Georg Potrebitsch DEU 300 no
n/a James Cunnama ZAF no no
n/a Torsten Abel DEU no no
n/a Tim Berkel AUS no no
n/a Konstantin Bachor GER no no

Update: Raynard Tissink was missing on the official WTC list, instead Michael Raelert was assigned a July spot. There were some rumors that Raynard Tissink stopped racing professionally, but I’m still trying to find out some more info. Greg Bennet was also not listed as an automatic qualifier, not sure why that would be the case.

Women

Q KPR rank Name Ctry KPR points Validated? Raced Kona 2011? Comment
Q 1. Caroline Steffen CHE 13.320
Q 2. Mirinda Carfrae AUS 9.995 automatic qualifier
Q 3. Leanda Cave GBR 9.250
Q 4. Rachel Joyce GBR 8.910
Q 5. Meredith Kessler USA 7.440 no
Q 6. Linsey Corbin USA 6.820
Q 7. Joanna Lawn NZL 6.545
Q 8. Heather Wurtele CAN 6.540
Q 9. Kelly Williamson USA 6.470
Q 10. Gina Crawford NZL 6.335 no
Q 11. Carrie Lester AUS 6.230 no
Q 12. Simone Brandli CHE 6.160 no
Q 13. Natascha Badmann CHE 6.005
14. Chrissie Wellington GBR 6.000 no not racing IMs this year
Q 15. Jessica Jacobs USA 5.980
Q 16. Caitlin Snow USA 5.960
Q 17. Anja Beranek DEU 5.865 no
Q 18. Sofie Goos BEL 5.810
Q 19. Tine Deckers BEL 5.725
Q 20. Kristin Moeller DEU 5.700 no
Q 21. Amanda Stevens USA 5.560
Q 22. Susan Dietrich DEU 5.530 no
Q 23. Sonja Tajsich DEU 5.385
24. Karin Thuerig CHE 5.300 no ended her career
Q 25. Erika Csomor HUN 5.200 no
26. Melissa Rollison AUS 5.160 no no was injured, would have been an automatic qualifier
Q 27. Mary Beth Ellis USA 5.160 on the start list for New York
Q 28. Michelle Vesterby DNK 4.880 no
Q 29. Corinne Abraham GBR 4.830 no
30. Sara Gross CAN 4.415 no plans to race New York
31. Mareen Hufe DEU 4.400 no
32. Belinda Granger AUS 4.330 no
33. Kate Bevilaqua AUS 3.990 plans to race New York
34. Sarah Piampiano USA 3.745 no
35. Virginia Berasategui ESP 3.620
36. Amy Marsh USA 3.495 plans to race New York
37. Jessie Donavan USA 3.480 no
38. Emi Sakai JPN 3.480 no
39. Anne Basso FRA 3.350 no plans to race New York
40. Hillary Biscay USA 3.340 no plans to race New York
41. Maki Nishiuchi JPN 3.320 plans to race New York
42. Rebekah Keat AUS 3.110 no plans to race New York
54. Samantha Warriner NZL 2.545 no just had a new baby
63. Catriona Morrison GBR 2.300 no was injured, is slowly starting to build up
78. Heleen Bij De Vaate NLD 1.960 plans to race New York
84. Uli Bromme USA 1.860
88. Yvonne Van Vlerken NLD 1.760 no
119. Lucie Zelenkova CZE 1.340 no
178. Jackie Arendt USA 700 no
207. Tyler Stewart USA 500 no is focusing on ultra running
218. Miranda Alldritt CAN 400 no
220. Silvia Felt DEU 400 no

Ages of Kona winners

On the recent IM Talk podcast episode, Bevan and John started a discussion about how old athletes are when they win IM Hawaii. John gave me my next research project …

So, here is the data:

image

The female winners ages are the red squares, the male winners are blue dots.

I’ve highlighted some notable athletes:

  • Sylviane Puntous is the youngest winner (age 22 in 1983).
  • The youngest male winner was Scott Tinley in 1982 (age 25 in 1982).
  • Dave Scott’s first win came at the age of 26 (in 1980). Thomas Hellriegel was also 26 when he won in 1997.
  • Mark Allen’s six wins also stand out.
  • Paula Newby-Fraser’s 8 wins occurred over a span of 10 years (1986 to 1996).
  • Natascha Badmann took 6 wins over 7 years, her reign was broken twice by Lori Bowden.
  • The progression of the recent men’s winners looks like another dynasty, in fact it’s three different athletes (Stadler, McCormack and Alexander) that are almost the same age. Crowie is also the oldest male winner (38 in 2011) – so is it time for the younger generation?
  • The youngest recent winners were Faris Al-Sultan (27 in 2005) and Mirinda Carefrae (29 in 2010).

I couldn’t find the exact birth dates of some of the earlier winners, so if you can help me out, please let me know. Specifically I have no information on Robin Beck, Linda Sweeney and Kathleen McCartney, and only rough information on Gordon Haller, Tom Warren and Joanne Ernst.

Kona 2012 Odds: April Changes

In February, I started a series of posts on the Kona 2012 odds. This is the April update, after IM Melbourne and IM South Africa. You can always see the latest odds by clicking “Kona 2012 Odds” in the main menu.

Men

The current odds are as follows:

  • Craig Alexander: 34%
  • Chris McCormack, Andreas Raelert, Marino Vanhoenacker: 12% each
  • Pete Jacobs: 7%
  • Eneko Llanos, Cameron Brown: 6%
  • Paul Amey: 2%

And a look at the changes over time:

image

Here’s where the last set of changes are coming from:

  • I’ve added Chris McCormack back into the mix. With WTC “buying” the Cairns race and turning it into an “official” IM race with qualifying points and Chris being committed to race there (as he did last year when it was a Challenge race), his “validation” issue has been resolved and as long as he finishes he gets a spot on the Kona start list. He may still qulify for the Olympics, but even the he might show up in Kona to race. And once he’s in the race, he will have an influence on the dynamics of the race.
  • With Macca back in the race, almost everyone’s odds are going down.
  • Even with Macca in the field, Crowie’s great performance n Melbourne improved his odds to win again in Kona. He will be able to take his time to prepare for Kona and he seems to be on a completely different level of confidence since winning in Las Vegas and Kona.
  • After pushing Crowie to a sub-8 finish and delivering his career best performance, Cam Brown´s odds have grown to much more than a statistical blip.

Women

The current odds are as follows:

  • Mirinda Carfrae: 31%
  • Caroline Steffen: 19%
  • Leanda Cave: 14%
  • Rachel Joyce: 14%
  • Mary Beth Ellis: 7%
  • Catriona Morrison: 4%

The changes over the season:

image_thumb[7]

Here’s where the last set of changes are coming from:

  • The odds for Caroline Steffen and Rachel Joyce have improved after their great performances in Melbourne.
  • Rinnie’s odds have decreased after Melbourne, but she is still the clear favorite. However, I’m not worried about her for Kona – her Melbourne performance was better than her race in New Zealand last year.
  • For the rest of the athletes, there were no noticeable changes compared to February.

When will Chrissie beat the male Ironman-distance World Record?

Gary Fagan asked the following question for the IM Talk podcast “end of year” show:

Based on current improvements, when will the women become faster than the men?

Let’s get a few things out of the way first: I find the wording question of world record vs. world best not very interesting – these are just word games. Also I don’t care whether the time was set in an “official” Ironman (organized  by WTC) or not (such as Challenge Roth). One reason is that most of the records were set in Roth – and I can’t see why a 1997 race (when it was an official WTC event) would count, but a 2012 (when it was run by Challenge) on pretty much the same course should not. When discussing these fast times, the issue that always comes up is that these courses are short. Unless triathlon organizations come up with a protocol for measuring  courses (which I think would be a very good idea), we won’t really know. Then again, as most records were set in Roth and that course has basically been unchanged, the old records from the 90s are comparable to the times from this year – at least the impact of the course changes do not play a major factor in the improved times.

World best times

Before discussing the question asked by Gary, let’s have a look at the data first.

Male world records

Here is how the male world record developed over the last years:

Date Athlete Course Time
July 1997 Luc van Lierde Roth 7:50:27
July 3rd 2011 Marino Vanhoenacker Austria 7:45:58
July 10th 2011 Andreas Raelert Roth 7:41:33

Not very exciting – Luc van Lierde’s record stood for quite a while – 14 years. From what I heard, it must have been a great race with quite a few people pushing the pace for the whole distance. Compared to that, Marino and Andreas were pretty much racing on their own to break the record.

Female world records

There was a bit more movement on the women’ side:

Date Athlete Course Time
July 1994 Paula Newby-Fraser Roth 8:50:53
July 13th 2008 Sandra Wallenhorst Austria 8:47:26
July 13th 2008 Yvonne van Vlercken Roth 8:45:48
July 12th 2009 Chrissie Wellington Roth 8:31:59
July 18th 2010 Chrissie Wellington Roth 8:19:13
July 10th 2011 Chrissie Wellington Roth 8:18:13

It took the females 14 years to break the old record as well, when Sandra Wallenhorst and Yvonne van Vlercken broke the record on the same day but on two different courses. (In fact, even with the slower time, Sandra completed her race before Yvonne as Sandra’s Austria start time was before Yvonne started in Roth – but Sandra had the record for less than an hour.) Since Chrissie took the record there has been a lot of improvement – it’s interesting to speculate if we are going to see some more records on the men’s side now that the old record has been broken.

Looking forward

If we want to extrapolate from these few data points, we can work with an average improvement for the women of 115 seconds per year on the women’s side (22:40 minutes in 17 years). (A little side note: The best linear approximation would give a progress of “only” 98 seconds, so the number I’ll be using is probably a best-case scenario.) If this average rate of improvement continues, it will take the women  about 19 years to catch up to current men’s record. But then the men’s record may improved as well – their improvement was at a rate of 38 seconds per year, so the women are catching up at a  rate of 77 seconds per year. Based on that, it’ll take more than 28 years to catch up to the men’s record.

Looking at these results (even putting aside all the objections one should raise when mechanically projecting progress forward), it does not look as if the women will be catching up to the men in the foreseeable future. Maybe a more interesting speculation may be when the women will be able to break 8 hours: If the rate of improvement continues, it seems feasible to go sub-8 within the next ten years. (A similar question for the men: When will they break 7:30? This is “just” another 11 1/2 minutes – but as their progress has been slower, that would take about 18 years.) This might be a good “discussion of the week” for a future IMTalk podcast

Select your currency
EUR Euro

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close