Collins Cup

Here are the results from the Collins Cup as if it had been one big race. You can find the overall points and match-by-match results here.

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Kristian Blummenfelt	NOR	00:24:13	01:43:27	00:59:03	03:09:18
2	Gustav Iden	NOR	00:25:06	01:44:30	00:59:29	03:11:31
3	Lionel Sanders	CAN	00:27:03	01:41:19	01:01:20	03:12:24
4	Sam Long	USA	00:27:03	01:41:12	01:01:30	03:12:26
5	Magnus Elbaek Ditlev	DEN	00:24:09	01:44:11	01:02:06	03:13:30
6	Daniel Baekkegard	DEN	00:24:04	01:45:26	01:01:14	03:13:51
7	Hayden Wilde	NZL	00:24:09	01:48:25	01:02:34	03:17:54
8	Matt Hanson	USA	00:25:07	01:49:20	01:02:19	03:19:18
9	Aaron Royle	AUS	00:22:55	01:49:16	01:04:34	03:19:41
10	Rudy Von Berg	USA	00:24:05	01:48:28	01:05:36	03:20:50
11	Ben Kanute	USA	00:24:08	01:45:27	01:09:15	03:21:16
12	Braden Currie	NZL	00:24:46	01:50:18	01:03:48	03:21:40
13	Jason West	USA	00:25:19	01:53:17	01:03:20	03:24:33
14	Chris Leiferman	USA	00:26:54	01:52:04	01:02:52	03:24:41
15	Max Neumann	AUS	00:24:02	01:57:42	01:00:28	03:24:51
16	Patrick Lange	GER	00:25:17	01:51:49	01:06:11	03:26:06
17	Jackson Laundry	CAN	00:26:33	01:52:03	01:11:26	03:32:48
18	Sam Laidlow	FRA	00:23:46	01:44:36	01:30:31	03:41:35

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Daniela Ryf	SUI	00:25:57	01:51:48	01:08:01	03:28:49
2	Ashleigh Gentle	AUS	00:26:13	01:55:49	01:06:08	03:30:50
3	Paula Findlay	CAN	00:26:52	01:52:56	01:08:23	03:31:09
4	Nicola Spirig	SUI	00:26:07	01:54:18	01:09:35	03:32:43
5	Holly Lawrence	GBR	00:25:53	01:54:45	01:09:37	03:33:09
6	Laura Philipp	GER	00:27:16	01:53:46	01:09:15	03:33:23
7	Anne Haug	GER	00:28:29	01:57:46	01:04:36	03:33:56
8	Tamara Jewett	CAN	00:28:28	01:58:01	01:06:06	03:35:41
9	Flora Duffy	BMU	00:25:32	01:57:58	01:09:22	03:35:47
10	Jocelyn McCauley	USA	00:26:54	01:53:46	01:13:39	03:37:42
11	Katrina Matthews	GBR	00:27:12	01:57:43	01:09:46	03:37:56
12	Skye Moench	USA	00:27:46	01:56:12	01:11:31	03:38:40
13	Jackie Hering	USA	00:28:31	01:57:53	01:09:46	03:39:20
14	Sarah True	USA	00:26:02	01:58:30	01:12:31	03:40:19
15	Chelsea Sodaro	USA	00:27:17	02:03:35	01:12:04	03:46:22
16	Ellie Salthouse	AUS	00:25:59	01:59:34	01:17:45	03:46:27
17	Vittoria Lopes	BRA	00:25:41	02:02:53	01:17:52	03:49:16
	Sophie Watts	USA	00:27:44	01:57:09		DNF

Even with Collins Cup taking up most of time this weekend, here are seedings for the matches. Rather than looking at specific finishing times (which are tricky as it’s going to be on a different course and some athletes have very little data to work with), the table below has “winning odds” for each athlete in their match. This way you can get a good indication for how the Collins Cup is going to play out. Make sure to follow the race because it’s unlikely things are going to develop exactly as indicated below.

Match	Starts	Bib	Athlete	Odds	EUR	USA	INT
F1	13:00	1A	Daniela Ryf	40%	3
F1	13:00	2A	Sarah True	30%		1
F1	13:00	3A	Flora Duffy	30%			2
F2	13:10	4B	Laura Philipp	40%	3
F2	13:10	5B	Chelsea Sodaro	35%		2
F2	13:10	6B	Ashleigh Gentle	25%			1
F3	13:20	7C	Katrina Matthews	35%	2
F3	13:20	8C	Skye Moench	10%		1
F3	13:20	9C	Paula Findlay	50%			3
F4	13:30	10D	Nicola Spirig	45%	3
F4	13:30	11D	Sophie Watts	30%		2
F4	13:30	12D	Vittoria Lopes	25%			1
F5	13:40	14E	Holly Lawrence	45%	3
F5	13:40	15E	Jocelyn McCauley	20%		1
F5	13:40	16E	Ellie Salthouse	35%			2
F6	13:50	17F	Anne Haug	50%	3
F6	13:50	18F	Jackie Hering	40%		2
F6	13:50	19F	Tamara Jewett	10%			1
			Sum Women		17	9	10
M1	14:20	20G	Kristian Blummenfelt	50%	3
M1	14:20	21G	Ben Kanute	25%		1
M1	14:20	22G	Hayden Wilde	25%			2
M2	14:30	23H	Sam Laidlow	15%	1
M2	14:30	24H	Sam Long	40%		2
M2	14:30	25H	Lionel Sanders	45%			3
M3	14:40	26I	Magnus Elbaek Ditlev	40%	2
M3	14:40	27I	Rudy Von Berg	45%		3
M3	14:40	28I	Max Neumann	15%			1
M4	14:50	29J	Patrick Lange	25%	1
M4	14:50	30J	Jason West	35%		2
M4	14:50	31J	Aaron Royle	40%			3
M5	15:00	32K	Gustav Iden	75%	3
M5	15:00	33K	Matt Hanson	10%		1
M5	15:00	34K	Jackson Laundry	15%			2
M6	15:10	35L	Daniel Baekkegard	75%	3
M6	15:10	36L	Chris Leiferman	10%		1
M6	15:10	37L	Braden Currie	15%			2
			Sum Men		13	10	13
			Sum Overall (before extra points)		30	19	23

In addition to the points shown here, an extra half point will be awarded for beating another athlete by more than two, four or six minutes. So the winner can score up to 6 points, and extra points can make a difference to the final standings.

Here’s a detailed look at the matches that make up the inaugural Collins Cup on August 28th in Samorin, Slovakia. I’ve scaled down the times from the typical half distance to the Collins Cup distances of 2k swim, 80k bike and 18k run (total distance 100k), also taking into account that most of the bike will be on a fast, mildly rolling motorway. Without any previous races on the course it is difficult to come up with “exact times”, however the differences between the athletes are much more solid and should give you a good indication of who is likely to swim faster than the others etc.

Another aspect that is hard to account for is the unique format of the Collins Cup with only three athletes in the race. This is likely making it easier to break away from the others as there are fewer athletes who will put in extra work to close gaps. In addition, everyone is not only racing for themselves but also for the team – so even athletes falling behind are likely to be working extra hard for the team, to avoid losing too much time and to prevent the others teams from earning bonus points. 

As always, the numbers shown in this “Seedings” post should not be considered “the last word” – the intention is to serve as starting points for conversations. So please feel free to add your observations and opinions to my data-centric analysis below when entering your picks for the PTO Fantasy Game for the Collins Cup!

Each of the matches below has its interesting aspects. Here are a few extra caveats on the data below:

• The US wildcards on the women’s side, Taylor Kibb and Katie Zaferes are very hard to predict – Taylor has had only one race on the half distance, Katie none so far. Obviously, with the limited amount of data points you can’t put too much faith in the expected times shown below – giving a lot of room for speculations!
• Some athletes were forced to take a break to deal with injuries. For example, Teresa’s last race was in January, and Sebi was dealing with an injury that kept him from starting a race since May. Will they be able to race at almost 100% in their first race back?
• It’s hard to properly account for recent travel and racing stress. A lot of athletes have had intercontinental travel to make it to Samorin and might still be adjusting to time zone changes. Some athletes have been racing a lot in recent weeks on a number of distances – e.g. in WTCS races (Taylor, Katie), Escape from Alcatraz (Emma, Ben), some even in a long-distance race (Jocelyn at IM Finland, Lionel at IM Copenhagen). What will this mean when they will need their absolute best in their matches?

Match 1: Daniela Ryf vs. Teresa Adam vs. Taylor Knibb

Name	Team	ESwim	EBike	ET2	Run	EFinish
Daniela Ryf	EUR	00:28:14	01:52:02	02:25:16	01:09:06	03:34:22
Teresa Adam	Int’l	00:28:02	01:51:54	02:24:56	01:16:59	03:41:55
Taylor Knibb	USA	00:28:08	01:56:32	02:29:40	01:09:33	03:39:13

Winning Chances:

• Daniela Ryf: 70%
• Taylor Knibb: 15%
• Teresa Adam: 15%

Match 2: Lucy Charles-Barclay vs. Paula Findlay vs. Katie Zaferes

Name	Team	ESwim	EBike	ET2	Run	EFinish
Lucy Charles-Barclay	EUR	00:26:15	01:54:52	02:26:07	01:08:46	03:34:53
Paula Findlay	Int’l	00:28:08	01:55:21	02:28:29	01:09:53	03:38:22
Katie Zaferes	USA	00:27:38	01:56:12	02:28:50	01:09:10	03:38:00

Winning Chances:

• Lucy Charles-Barclay: 60%
• Paula Findlay: 25%
• Katie Zaferes: 15%

Match 3: Annie Haug vs. Jeannie Metzler vs. Jackie Hering

Name	Team	ESwim	EBike	ET2	Run	EFinish
Anne Haug	EUR	00:29:52	01:58:06	02:32:58	01:04:50	03:37:48
Jeanni Metzler	Int’l	00:28:31	01:57:58	02:31:29	01:09:13	03:40:42
Jackie Hering	USA	00:30:01	01:59:16	02:34:17	01:09:18	03:43:35

Winning Chances:

• Anne Haug: 65%
• Jeanni Metzler: 20% 
• Jackie Hering: 15%

Match 4: Holly Lawrence vs. Ellie Salthouse vs. Skye Moench

Name	Team	ESwim	EBike	ET2	Run	EFinish
Holly Lawrence	EUR	00:27:32	01:55:01	02:27:33	01:09:41	03:37:14
Ellie Salthouse	Int’l	00:28:32	01:57:40	02:31:12	01:11:09	03:42:21
Skye Moench	USA	00:30:15	01:55:27	02:30:42	01:10:57	03:41:39

Winning Chances:

• Holly Lawrence: 50%
• Ellie Salthouse: 25%
• Skye Moench: 25%

Match 5: Emma Pallant-Browne vs. Sarah Crowley vs. Chelsea Sodaro

Name	Team	ESwim	EBike	ET2	Run	EFinish
Emma Pallant-Browne	EUR	00:29:44	01:56:51	02:31:35	01:08:33	03:40:08
Sarah Crowley	Int’l	00:29:22	01:58:15	02:32:37	01:11:56	03:44:33
Chelsea Sodaro	USA	00:29:26	01:56:51	02:31:17	01:09:16	03:40:33

Winning Chances:

• Chelsea Sodaro: 40%
• Emma Pallant-Browne: 40%
• Sarah Crowley: 20%

Match 6: Katrina Matthews vs. Carrie Lester vs. Jocelyn McCauley

Name	Team	ESwim	EBike	ET2	Run	EFinish
Katrina Matthews	EUR	00:30:22	01:58:46	02:34:08	01:10:03	03:44:11
Carrie Lester	Int’l	00:29:20	01:58:09	02:32:29	01:14:02	03:46:31
Jocelyn McCauley	USA	00:29:41	01:57:29	02:32:10	01:17:01	03:49:11

Winning Chances:

• Katrina Matthews: 60%
• Carrie Lester: 30%
• Jocelyn McCauley: 10%

Match 7: Jan Frodeno vs. Sam Appleton vs. Sam Long

Name	Team	ESwim	EBike	ET2	Run	EFinish
Jan Frodeno	EUR	00:25:19	01:43:25	02:13:44	00:59:54	03:13:38
Sam Appleton	Int’l	00:25:42	01:42:14	02:12:56	01:04:35	03:17:31
Sam Long	USA	00:29:17	01:40:22	02:14:39	01:02:09	03:16:48

Winning Chances:

• Jan Frodeno: 50%
• Sam Long: 30%
• Sam Appleton: 20%

Match 8: Gustav Iden vs. Kyle Smith vs. Colin Chartier

Name	Team	ESwim	EBike	ET2	Run	EFinish
Gustav Iden	EUR	00:26:25	01:41:50	02:13:15	00:58:00	03:11:15
Kyle Smith	Int’l	00:25:24	01:43:40	02:14:04	01:04:24	03:18:28
Collin Chartier	USA	00:26:12	01:44:33	02:15:45	01:03:40	03:19:25

Winning Chances:

• Gustav Iden: 70%
• Kyle Smith: 20%
• Collin Chartier: 10%

Match 9: Sebastian Kienle vs. Lionel Sanders vs. Andrew Starykowicz

Name	Team	ESwim	EBike	ET2	Run	EFinish
Sebastian Kienle	EUR	00:27:59	01:42:06	02:15:05	01:01:45	03:16:50
Lionel Sanders	Int’l	00:28:21	01:39:43	02:13:04	01:00:19	03:13:23
Andrew Starykowicz	USA	00:27:06	01:40:32	02:10:29	01:07:44	03:20:13

Winning Chances:

• Lionel Sanders: 60%
• Sebastian Kienle: 25%
• Andrew Starykowicz: 15%

Note: This match is probably the hardest to predict as there are recent developments that did not play a role in the seed times above. The most obvious one is that Lionel has completed IM Copenhagen just 6 days before this race, and no one really knows how well he’s recovered and how hard he’ll be able to race. In addition, Sebastian Kienle was forced to take an injury break after racing in May, and this will be his first race back. You can be pretty sure that Andrew Starykowicz would love to beat my numbers and win his match. 

Match 10: Daniel Baekkegard vs. Max Neumann vs. Ben Kanute

Name	Team	ESwim	EBike	ET2	Run	EFinish
Daniel Baekkegard	EUR	00:25:26	01:45:50	02:16:16	01:02:15	03:18:31
Max Neumann	Int’l	00:25:23	01:46:27	02:16:50	01:04:00	03:20:50
Ben Kanute	USA	00:25:25	01:43:33	02:13:58	01:05:34	03:19:32

Winning Chances:

• Daniel Baekkegard: 45%
• Ben Kanute: 35%
• Max Neumann: 20%

Match 11: Patrick Lange vs. Braden Currie vs. Matt Hanson

Name	Team	ESwim	EBike	ET2	Run	EFinish
Patrick Lange	EUR	00:26:13	01:46:32	02:17:45	01:00:58	03:18:43
Braden Currie	Int’l	00:26:02	01:46:09	02:17:11	01:02:30	03:19:41
Matt Hanson	USA	00:27:49	01:45:19	02:18:08	01:00:53	03:19:01

Winning Chances:

• Patrick Lange: 45%
• Matt Hanson: 30% 
• Braden Currie: 25%

Match 12: Joe Skipper vs. Jackson Laundry vs. Justin Metzler

Name	Team	ESwim	EBike	ET2	Run	EFinish
Joe Skipper	EUR	00:29:27	01:46:14	02:20:41	01:08:08	03:28:49
Jackson Laundry	Int’l	00:27:31	01:44:59	02:17:30	01:02:45	03:20:15
Justin Metzler	USA	00:26:44	01:46:43	02:18:27	01:04:44	03:23:11

Winning Chances:

• Jackson Laundry: 60%
• Justin Metzler: 30%
• Joe Skipper: 10%

The first edition of the Collins Cup will be held on August 28th in Samorin. The Collins Cup will be a team event, in 12 matches one athlete from each of the three teams will race each other. The winner of each match scores 3 points, 2nd place 2 points and 1 point for 3rd, plus some bonus points for being far ahead. The winner of the Collins Cup will be the team that scores the most points in each of the matches.

Course details have not been announced yet, for now I have listed athletes with their course-neutral “70.3 Ratings”. But the distances are expected to be 2k swim, 80k bike and 18k run, so the times will be considerably faster than below. I plan to update the expected times closer to the race.

Updates:

• August 24th: The US had some last minutes changes, Heather Jackson has been replaced by Jocelyn McCauley and Chris Leiferman by Andrew Starykowicz.

Male Race Participants

#	Name	Nat	Team	70.3 Rating	Swim	Bike	T2	Run
1	Gustav Iden	NOR	Europe	03:44:55	00:24:14	02:08:06	02:35:50	01:09:01
2	Jan Frodeno	GER	Europe	03:47:25	00:23:14	02:10:03	02:36:47	01:11:16
3	Lionel Sanders	CAN	Internationals	03:47:10	00:26:10	02:06:16	02:35:56	01:12:23
4	Sam Long	USA	USA	03:51:11	00:26:55	02:06:29	02:36:55	01:14:06
5	Rudy Von Berg	USA	USA	03:50:00	00:23:54	02:09:28	02:36:52	01:14:34
6	Sam Appleton	AUS	Internationals	03:51:54	00:23:41	02:09:02	02:36:12	01:16:36
7	Sebastian Kienle	GER	Europe	03:52:48	00:25:59	02:09:56	02:39:26	01:14:15
8	Daniel Baekkegard	DEN	Europe	03:52:49	00:23:20	02:13:06	02:39:56	01:14:05
9	Matt Hanson	USA	USA	03:53:09	00:25:32	02:12:30	02:41:32	01:12:29
10	Kyle Smith	NZL	Internationals	03:53:02	00:23:19	02:10:30	02:37:19	01:16:42
11	Patrick Lange	GER	Europe	03:53:42	00:24:03	02:13:58	02:41:30	01:12:32
12	Chris Leiferman	USA	USA	03:56:50	00:26:18	02:11:08	02:40:56	01:14:17
13	Braden Currie	NZL	Internationals	03:54:35	00:23:53	02:13:31	02:40:55	01:14:23
14	Ben Kanute	USA	USA	03:55:30	00:23:34	02:10:43	02:37:47	01:17:44
15	Jackson Laundry	CAN	Internationals	03:54:27	00:25:16	02:12:08	02:40:54	01:14:44
	Andrew Starykowicz	USA	USA	03:54:48	00:24:56	02:06:35	02:35:01	01:20:48
16	Max Neumann	AUS	Internationals	03:56:47	00:23:35	02:13:56	02:41:01	01:16:44
17	Justin Metzler	USA	USA	03:58:13	00:24:32	02:14:18	02:42:21	01:17:05
18	Joe Skipper	GBR	Europe	04:03:30	00:26:48	02:12:28	02:42:47	01:22:53

Female Race Participants

#	Name	Nat	Team	70.3 Rating	Swim	Bike	T2	Run
1	Daniela Ryf	SUI	Europe	04:11:59	00:25:55	02:21:02	02:50:27	01:22:18
2	Lucy Charles-Barclay	GBR	Europe	04:18:02	00:24:19	02:25:41	02:53:29	01:22:50
3	Holly Lawrence	GBR	Europe	04:15:30	00:25:15	02:24:42	02:53:27	01:22:57
4	Anne Haug	GER	Europe	04:17:14	00:27:29	02:29:05	03:00:04	01:17:26
5	Paula Findlay	CAN	Internationals	04:18:04	00:25:49	02:25:09	02:54:28	01:23:12
6	Taylor Knibb	USA	USA	04:17:40	00:25:24	02:23:55	02:54:03	01:23:37
7	Chelsea Sodaro	USA	USA	04:18:54	00:27:01	02:27:01	02:57:33	01:22:28
8	Jeanni Metzler	ZAF	Internationals	04:20:15	00:26:09	02:28:22	02:58:01	01:22:22
9	Emma Pallant-Browne	GBR	Europe	04:20:05	00:27:25	02:27:48	02:58:43	01:22:03
10	Skye Moench	USA	USA	04:19:54	00:27:47	02:25:21	02:56:38	01:24:32
11	Teresa Adam	NZL	Internationals	04:22:44	00:25:47	02:21:04	02:50:21	01:31:50
12	Ellie Salthouse	AUS	Internationals	04:23:16	00:26:16	02:28:13	02:57:59	01:24:38
13	Jackie Hering	USA	USA	04:22:12	00:27:32	02:30:01	03:01:03	01:22:28
14	Katrina Matthews	GBR	Europe	04:23:54	00:27:52	02:29:26	03:00:49	01:23:23
15	Heather Jackson	USA	USA	04:23:42	00:29:02	02:26:34	02:59:06	01:25:44
16	Sarah Crowley	AUS	Internationals	04:24:21	00:26:58	02:28:48	02:59:16	01:25:39
17	Carrie Lester	AUS	Internationals	04:27:04	00:26:56	02:28:45	02:59:11	01:28:12
	Jocelyn McCauley (KQ)	USA	USA	04:31:22	00:27:16	02:28:01	02:58:47	01:31:48
18	Katie Zaferes	USA	USA	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated