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Unofficial KPR & 2017 Kona Pro Slot Allocation for August Cutoff

2017 TitlePage Kona Report ThumbHere is my calculation of the KPR at the end of August, deciding the final 10 male and 7 female slots (in addition to the July slots). You’ll always find all Kona Pros in my “Always Up-to-date Kona 2017 Startlist“.

My results are unofficial, the official results will be posted on the Ironman website at http://eu.ironman.com/triathlon/triathlon-rankings/points-system.aspx (but as far as I can tell will show the same data).

There is still going to be some time before all slots have been accepted or maybe rolled down to the next athletes. Athletes with rankings shown in brackets (such as “(11)”) are out of the slot positions and have to hope for a rolldown slot. For now there is some speculation whether Marino Vanhoenacker and Chris McDonald would accept their slots.

Once the field has been finalized, I will work on this year’s version of the Kona Rating Report, looking at the field and each athlete’s chances for a good result. The free report will be released in time before the Kona race, you can already pre-order your copy.

Male KPR Rankings

Rank Name Points
DECL Vanhoenacker, Marino 4.555
1 Weiss, Michael 4.430
2 Wiltshire, Harry 3.765
3 Wurf, Cameron 3.485
4 Fachbach, Markus 3.400
5 Molinari, Giulio 3.395
6 Chevrot, Denis 3.390
7 Fox, Michael 3.355
8 Tohara, Kaito 3.330
9 López Diaz, Carlos 3.175
10 McDonald, Chris 3.048
(11) Llanos, Eneko 2.975
(12) Croneborg, Fredrik 2.820

Update Aug 22nd: All Top 10 males except for Marino have accepted their slots.

Update Aug 26th: Marino has declined his slot, and Chris McDonald accepted the rolldown. This means that all August slots have been decided.

Female KPR Rankings

Rank Athlete Points
1 Joyce, Rachel 5.880
2 Moeller, Kristin 5.120
3 McCauley, Jocelyn 4.415
4 Holst, Tine 4.295
Decl Kessler, Meredith 4.265
5 Chura, Haley 4.180
6 Bartlett, Nikki 4.055
7 Collonge, Jeanne 3.910
(8) Wutti, Eva 3.820
(9) Mack, Danielle 3.820

Nominally, Meredith Kessler would receive a slot but she’s pregnant and so is extremely likely to decline. I assume she will still be asked (and the rolldown procedure to take a while), but Jeanne Collonge should receive a rolldown slot. (Update Aug 21st: Jeanne has posted on her Facebook page that she has received an invitation.) In case more slots roll down, Eva Wutti would be the next in line, she has the better tie-breaking score than Danielle Mack who has the same number of points.

Update Aug 22nd: All slots on the female side have settled. As expected Meredith declined, and all slots (including Jeanne’s) have been accepted.

Kona Qualifying – One Week before the August Cutoff

The race for the Professional Kona slots is almost over: The second and final qualifying period ends on August 20th. The first qualifying period had the majority of slots, but there are another ten slots for the male and seven for female Pros. The final order will be decided in two more Ironman races: The Scandinavian duo of IM Sweden (MPRO) and IM Copenhagen (WPRO), and IM Mont Tremblant. There are also two more 70.3s (70.3 Dublin and 70.3 Indonesia), but as they have fewer points their impact will be smaller, but there are some athletes for whom Dublin can make the difference of qualifying or not. This post looks at the situation before the last races, who’s currently in and who looks to make a jump in the rankings.As soon as the races are over I will post my “Unofficial KPR Rankings and August Slot Assignments”.

Update Aug 15th: Justin Daerr has announced he won’t be racing in Sweden, instead focusing on IM Wisconsin and 2018 qualifying.

Update Aug 16th: A few other athletes have indicated that they won’t be racing IM Sweden.

Update Aug 19th: Situation after the completion of IM Sweden.

Update Aug 20th: Slight update on the men’s side after 70.3 Dublin.

Women

There are seven female slots available this weekend. Meredith Kessler is currently placed in the middle of the qualifying spots, but as she is pregnant she is extremely unlikely to accept her slot. (I assume she will still be asked, so the rolldown procedure might take some time.) Here’s a table of the athletes currently in the qualifying ranks and those that still have a chance to pass Jeanne Collonge who would currently get the last slot:

Rank Athlete Points Races Race Plan Needed
1 Moeller, Kristin 5.120 3+1 (515/435)
2 McCauley, Jocelyn 4.415 3+1 (385/30)
3 Holst, Tine 4.295 3+1 (960/400)
Kessler, Meredith 4.265 3+1 (235/750)  pregnant
4 Chura, Haley 4.180 1+2 (2890/540)
5 Joyce, Rachel 4.100 2+2 (960/220) IM Mont Tremblant 8th
6 Bartlett, Nikki 4.055 3+1 (855/640)
7 Collonge, Jeanne 3.910 3+1 (960/280) IM Copenhagen 3rd
Brown, Brooke 3.445 3+1 (540/345) IM Mont Tremblant 3rd
Tastets, Pamela 3.425 3+1 (855/540) IM Copenhagen 2nd
Roberts, Darbi 2.755 3+0 (215/-) IM Mont Tremblant 2nd
Tisseyre, Magali 2.390 1+2 (685/540) IM Mont Tremblant 2nd

(“Needed” is the minimum result needed for qualifying or improving the total, however it does not assure a slot when others add points as well.)

Here’s my best guess at who is going to receive the August slots:

  • Kristin Moeller and Jocelyn McCauley are safe for a slot – there are just not enough athletes racing that can still overtake them. (Slots #1 and #2)
  • Tine Holst and Haley Chura should also remain in the top qualifying spots, but there is still a chance for others to overtake them. (Slots #3 and #4)
  • Rachel Joyce has indicated that she is going to race IM Mont Tremblant. She only needs an 8th place to improve her position, and she should be able to finally secure a slot. (Slot #5)
  • Slot #6 comes down to Nikki Bartlett or one of the contenders from IM Copenhagen. Given the strong competition in Copenhagen (e.g. Michelle Vesterby and Corinne Abraham) and the requirements to place well, Nikki seems to have the best chances.
  • The last slot (slot #7) should be decided in Mont Tremblant between Brooke Brown, Darbi Roberts and Magali Tisseyre.
The athletes just missing slots will have to hope for a rolldown.

Men

There are ten more male slots available at the end of August. Here’s a table looking at the athletes on the bubble and those that still have a chance to pass Kaito Tohara who is currently in the last qualifying spot:

Rank Athlete Points Races Race Plan Needed
1 Weiss, Michael 4.430 3+1 (720/750)
2 Wiltshire, Harry 3.765 3+1 (305/500)
3 Wurf, Cameron 3.485 3+1 (515/35)
4 Fachbach, Markus 3.400 2+2 (1280/240)
5 Molinari, Giulio 3.395 3+1 (720/750)
6 Chevrot, Denis 3.390 2+2 (720/640)
7 Fox, Michael 3.355 3+1 (405/320)
8 Tohara, Kaito 3.330 3+1 (230/220)
9 López Diaz, Carlos 3.175 3+0 (215/-) 70.3 Dublin (DNS)
10 Llanos, Eneko 2.975 3+1 (340/75) 70.3 Dublin (finished 8th)
11 Croneborg, Fredrik 2.820 1+2 (2000/320) 70.3 Indonesia (DNS?)
Vanhoenacker, Marino 2.555 1+2 (2000/55) IM Mont Tremblant 7th
McDonald, Chris 1.448 2+1 IM Mont Tremblant 2nd

(“Needed” is the minimum result needed for qualifying or improving the total points, however it does not assure a slot when others add points as well.)

Rank Athlete Points Races Race Plan Needed/Actual
 14 Sapunov, Daniil 2.745 3+1 (720/345) IM Sweden 4th – / 5th
 17 Hovgaard, Esben 2.600 3+1 (540/240) IM Sweden 2nd / 3rd
Baldwin, Nick 2.235 3+1 (230/320) IM Sweden 4th / DNS
Daerr, Justin 2.105 2+2 (720/30) IM Sweden 4th / DNS
Lassonde, Cedric 1.305 2+2 (305/100) IM Sweden Win / DNS

Based on the available start lists, here’s my best guess at who is going to receive one of the August slots:

  • Michael Weiss, Harry Wiltshire and Markus Fachbach will remain in the Top 10 (slots #1, #2 and #3).
  • Giulio Molinari, Denis Chevrot and Michael Fox should remain in the qualifying ranks as well, though if they don’t score there is still a relatively small chance for them to fall back too far (slots #4, #5 and #6).
  • The list for Sweden is still “crowded” by athletes unlikely to race there, but I would guess that we will see two athletes placing well there grabbing a slot (slots #7 and #8). Only Cameron Wurf was able to secure a slot at IM Sweden, practically making Kaito Tohara safe.
  • Considering Marino Vanhoenacker is unlikely to accept a slot even if he is well placed, I can only see one slot being assigned in Mont Tremblant – but for that Chris McDonald has to finish second or better so it’s not assured by any means (slot #9).
  • The last slot would then be decided between the two Spanish athletes that might race in Dublin, Carlos Lopez Diaz (just having raced IM Hamburg, probably not racing) and Eneko Llanos – or maybe Kaito Tohara (slot #10).

There are so many different scenarios that it’s still possible for any of the athletes in the above table to get a slot – it’ll be exciting racing on Sunday! As soon as the races are over I will post my “Unofficial KPR Rankings and August slot assignments”.

Unofficial KPR & 2017 Kona Pro Slot Allocation for July Cutoff

2017 TitlePage Kona Report ThumbHere is my calculation of the KPR at the end of July, deciding 40 male and 28 female slots (in addition to the Automatic Qualifiers). My results are unofficial, the official results will be posted on the Ironman website at http://eu.ironman.com/triathlon/triathlon-rankings/points-system.aspx (but as far as I can tell will show the same data). I do not count AQs and athletes that haven’t validated in my rankings, therefore it is a bit easier to determine the Top 40 male and Top 28 females. I will update this post with new information regarding declined slots and rolldown.

There is going to be another cutoff in August, adding another 10 male and 7 female slots. Once the field has been completed, I will work on this year’s version of the Kona Rating Report, looking at the field and each athlete’s chances for a good result. The free report will be released in time before the Kona race, you can already pre-order your copy.

July 29th: For now, the tables below contain the athletes that I consider safe for a July slot. The remaining races will decide the final spots, check out the geeky details about who’s currently in and who can still make in this post (“Kona Qualifying Before the Last July Races“). I will update this post as soon as each of the races are over with the implications.

July 30th: The Male Rankings are finalized, including the results from both IM Switzerland and 70. Ecuador. Athletes with rankings shown in brackets (such as “(41)”) are out of the slot positions and have to hope for a rolldown slot. For the women, Ironman Canada is likely still changing the rankings, therefore the table for now only shows the athletes that are safe for a July slot.

July 31st: With the big points at IM Canada decided, the female ranking is now also finalized in the points slots. As for the men, the athletes shown in brackets (such as “(30)”) are out of the slot positions and have to hope for a rolldown slot. With an expected rolldown from Lucy Gossage, Corinne Abraham would receive a slot even though she’s in #29 and technically just outside the required ranking.

August 6th: The anticipated rolldown on the female side has happened: Lucy Gossage has declined her slot which Corinne Abraham accepted. Not all athletes have accepted their slot yet, but there is no other known rolldown.

August 7th: On the Ironman website Camilla Pedersen and David Plese are still not shown with a Q, but both have indicated on Instagram that they have accepted their slots. This means that for now there will be no additional rolldown slots.

Male KPR Rankings

Rank  Name Nation Points Races
AQ Kienle, Sebastian GER 14985 2+2 (4000/1085)
AQ Frodeno, Jan GER 10750 2+1
AQ Hoffman, Ben USA 10655 2+2 (4000/280)
1 Boecherer, Andi GER 10565 2+2 (3400/640)
2 Lange, Patrick GER 8150 2+0
3 O’Donnell, Timothy USA 7665 2+2 (2000/400)
AQ Van Lierde, Frederik BEL 7535 3+1 (2000/435)
AQ Don, Tim GBR 6515 1+2 (4000/920)
4 Buckingham, Kyle ZAF 6450 2+2 (2455/55)
5 Potts, Andy USA 6335 3+1 (1600/500)
6 Bozzone, Terenzo NZL 6225 2+2 (540/1500)
AQ Hanson, Matt USA 6210 2+2 (960/500)
7 Russell, Matthew USA 6010 3+1 (1600/500)
8 Stein, Boris GER 5920 2+0
9 Aernouts, Bart BEL 5825 2+0
10 Kastelein, Nick AUS 5690 2+2 (1280/640)
AQ Amberger, Josh AUS 5660 2+2 (70/750)
11 Currie, Braden NZL 5640 2+1
12 McNamee, David GBR 5540 2+1
13 Schildknecht, Ronnie SUI 5450 2+2 (1375/135)
14 Reed, Tim AUS 5240 1+2 (1600/640)
15 Frommhold, Nils GER 5235 1+2 (3400/750)
16 Nilsson, Patrik SWE 5070 2+1
17 Gambles, Joe AUS 4985 2+2 (405/540)
18 Butterfield, Tyler BMU 4915 1+2 (2890/750)
19 Wild, Ruedi SUI 4910 2+2 (340/540)
20 Sanders, Lionel CAN 4905 2+2 (340/1275)
21 McMahon, Brent CAN 4830 2+2 (1600/605)
22 Tutukin, Ivan RUS 4730 2+2 (1600/500)
23 Clarke, Will GBR 4645 3+1 (155/435)
24 Dellow, David AUS 4610 3+1 (340/180)
25 Viennot, Cyril FRA 4485 3+1 (705/500)
26 Albert, Marko EST 4415 3+1 (960/500)
27 Degasperi, Alessandro ITA 4290 3+1 (450/640)
28 Cunnama, James ZAF 4180 2+2 (685/400)
29 Van Berkel, Tim AUS 3955 2+2 (565/435)
30 Amorelli, Igor BRA 3933 2+2 (3/500)
31 Vinhal, Thiago BRA 3920 2+2 (1600/50)
32 Plese, David SLO 3775 3+1 (960/785)
33 Duelsen, Marc GER 3765 3+1 (540/540)
34 Van Berkel, Jan SUI 3755 2+2 (1280/145)
35 Rana, Ivan ESP 3740 2+2 (30/45)
36 Kotshegarov, Kirill EST 3710 3+0 (340/0)
37 Colucci, Reinaldo BRA 3705 1+2 (2455/500)
38 Evoe, Patrick USA 3500 2+2 (1280/345)
39 Fontana, Daniel ITA 3445 3+1 (515/210)
40 Thomas, Jesse USA 3420 2+2 (1100/400)
(41) Molinari, Giulio ITA 3395 3+1 (720/750)
(42) Chevrot, Denis FRA 3390 2+2 (720/640)
(43) Fox, Michael AUS 3355 3+1 (405/320)
(44) Tohara, Kaito JPN 3330 3+1 (230/220)
(45) Wiltshire, Harry GBR 3085 2+2 (305/280)
AQ Jacobs, Pete AUS 10 1

Female KPR Rankings

Rank  Name Nation Points Races
AQ Ryf, Daniela SUI 14935 2+2 (4000/750)
AQ Crowley, Sarah AUS 10875 3+1 (1375/1500)
1 Sali, Kaisa FIN 10275 2+2 (3400/540)
2 Piampiano, Sarah USA 9570 3+1 (1280/640)
3 Jackson, Heather USA 9080 2+2 (1600/500)
4 Vesterby, Michelle DEN 8005 3+0 (1280/0)
AQ Cheetham, Susie GBR 7930 2+2 (2890/400)
5 DECL Gossage, Lucy GBR 7475 3+1 (1280/750)
NV Carfrae, Mirinda AUS 7200 1+0
6 Beranek, Anja GER 6905 2+0
7 Herlbauer, Michaela AUT 6595 3+1 (705/400)
8 Corbin, Linsey USA 6405 3+1 (1900/415)
9 Lyles, Elizabeth USA 6270 2+2 (2000/540)
10 Luxford, Annabel AUS 5830 2+2 (960/1500)
11 Siddall, Laura GBR 5720 3+1 (1280/840)
12 Lester, Carrie AUS 5535 2+1
13 Charles, Lucy GBR 5515 2+1
14 Stienen, Astrid GER 5495 2+2 (2000/435)
NV Wurtele, Heather CAN 5420 1+2 (2240/750)
15 Tondeur, Alexandra BEL 5290 3+1 (565/500)
16 Pedersen, Camilla DEN 5235 2+2 (1280/400)
17 Lundstroem, Asa SWE 5205 2+2 (960/180)
AQ Robertson, Jodie USA 5110 2+2 (450/20)
18 Tajsich, Sonja GER 5070 2+0
19 Duke, Dimity-Lee AUS 5070 3+1 (880/400)
20 Hufe, Mareen GER 5050 3+1 (1600/180)
21 Stage Nielsen, Maja DEN 4925 2+2 (1600/180)
22 Frades Larralde, Gurutze ESP 4915 3+1 (235/135)
23 Kaye, Alicia USA 4870 2+2 (340/640)
24 Riesler, Diana GER 4785 2+2 (1600/400)
25 Hauschildt, Melissa AUS 4700 1+1
NV Lawrence, Holly GBR 4500 0+2 (0/1500)
26 Schaerer, Celine SUI 4485 3+1 (540/345)
27 Grohmann, Katharina GER 4470 3+1 (960/140)
28 Brandon, Lauren USA 4425 2+2 (1600/515)
29 Abraham, Corinne GBR 4400 3+1 (960/240)
(30) McCauley, Jocelyn USA 4385 3+0 (385/0)
(31) Holst, Tine DEN 4295 3+1 (960/400)
(32*) Kessler, Meredith USA 4265 3+1 (235/750)
(33) Moeller, Kristin GER 4180 3+1 (340/435)
(34) Chura, Haley USA 4180 1+2 (2890/540)
(35) Joyce, Rachel GBR 4100 2+2 (960/220)
AQ Cave, Leanda GBR 2100 2+2 (340/500)

Lucy Gossage has said multiple times that she is going to decline her slot, so it’s very likely that Corinne Abraham will receive a rolldown slot in the next few days. (Therefore, I have not put Corinne’s 29 into brackets.)

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