KPR

The race for the Professional Kona slots is almost over: The second and final qualifying period ends on August 20th. The first qualifying period had the majority of slots, but there are another ten slots for the male and seven for female Pros. The final order will be decided in two more Ironman races: The Scandinavian duo of IM Sweden (MPRO) and IM Copenhagen (WPRO), and IM Mont Tremblant. There are also two more 70.3s (70.3 Dublin and 70.3 Indonesia), but as they have fewer points their impact will be smaller, but there are some athletes for whom Dublin can make the difference of qualifying or not. This post looks at the situation before the last races, who’s currently in and who looks to make a jump in the rankings.As soon as the races are over I will post my “Unofficial KPR Rankings and August Slot Assignments”.

Update Aug 15th: Justin Daerr has announced he won’t be racing in Sweden, instead focusing on IM Wisconsin and 2018 qualifying.

Update Aug 16th: A few other athletes have indicated that they won’t be racing IM Sweden.

Update Aug 19th: Situation after the completion of IM Sweden.

Update Aug 20th: Slight update on the men’s side after 70.3 Dublin.

Women

There are seven female slots available this weekend. Meredith Kessler is currently placed in the middle of the qualifying spots, but as she is pregnant she is extremely unlikely to accept her slot. (I assume she will still be asked, so the rolldown procedure might take some time.) Here’s a table of the athletes currently in the qualifying ranks and those that still have a chance to pass Jeanne Collonge who would currently get the last slot:

(“Needed” is the minimum result needed for qualifying or improving the total, however it does not assure a slot when others add points as well.)

Here’s my best guess at who is going to receive the August slots:

• Kristin Moeller and Jocelyn McCauley are safe for a slot – there are just not enough athletes racing that can still overtake them. (Slots #1 and #2)
• Tine Holst and Haley Chura should also remain in the top qualifying spots, but there is still a chance for others to overtake them. (Slots #3 and #4)
• Rachel Joyce has indicated that she is going to race IM Mont Tremblant. She only needs an 8th place to improve her position, and she should be able to finally secure a slot. (Slot #5)
• Slot #6 comes down to Nikki Bartlett or one of the contenders from IM Copenhagen. Given the strong competition in Copenhagen (e.g. Michelle Vesterby and Corinne Abraham) and the requirements to place well, Nikki seems to have the best chances.
• The last slot (slot #7) should be decided in Mont Tremblant between Brooke Brown, Darbi Roberts and Magali Tisseyre.

Men

There are ten more male slots available at the end of August. Here’s a table looking at the athletes on the bubble and those that still have a chance to pass Kaito Tohara who is currently in the last qualifying spot:

(“Needed” is the minimum result needed for qualifying or improving the total points, however it does not assure a slot when others add points as well.)

Based on the available start lists, here’s my best guess at who is going to receive one of the August slots:

• Michael Weiss, Harry Wiltshire and Markus Fachbach will remain in the Top 10 (slots #1, #2 and #3).
• Giulio Molinari, Denis Chevrot and Michael Fox should remain in the qualifying ranks as well, though if they don’t score there is still a relatively small chance for them to fall back too far (slots #4, #5 and #6).
• The list for Sweden is still “crowded” by athletes unlikely to race there, but I would guess that we will see two athletes placing well there grabbing a slot (slots #7 and #8). Only Cameron Wurf was able to secure a slot at IM Sweden, practically making Kaito Tohara safe.
• Considering Marino Vanhoenacker is unlikely to accept a slot even if he is well placed, I can only see one slot being assigned in Mont Tremblant – but for that Chris McDonald has to finish second or better so it’s not assured by any means (slot #9).
• The last slot would then be decided between the two Spanish athletes that might race in Dublin, Carlos Lopez Diaz (just having raced IM Hamburg, probably not racing) and Eneko Llanos – or maybe Kaito Tohara (slot #10).

There are so many different scenarios that it’s still possible for any of the athletes in the above table to get a slot – it’ll be exciting racing on Sunday! As soon as the races are over I will post my “Unofficial KPR Rankings and August slot assignments”.

Here is my calculation of the KPR at the end of July, deciding 40 male and 28 female slots (in addition to the Automatic Qualifiers). My results are unofficial, the official results will be posted on the Ironman website at http://eu.ironman.com/triathlon/triathlon-rankings/points-system.aspx (but as far as I can tell will show the same data). I do not count AQs and athletes that haven’t validated in my rankings, therefore it is a bit easier to determine the Top 40 male and Top 28 females. I will update this post with new information regarding declined slots and rolldown.

There is going to be another cutoff in August, adding another 10 male and 7 female slots. Once the field has been completed, I will work on this year’s version of the Kona Rating Report, looking at the field and each athlete’s chances for a good result. The free report will be released in time before the Kona race, you can already pre-order your copy.

July 29th: For now, the tables below contain the athletes that I consider safe for a July slot. The remaining races will decide the final spots, check out the geeky details about who’s currently in and who can still make in this post (“Kona Qualifying Before the Last July Races“). I will update this post as soon as each of the races are over with the implications.

July 30th: The Male Rankings are finalized, including the results from both IM Switzerland and 70. Ecuador. Athletes with rankings shown in brackets (such as “(41)”) are out of the slot positions and have to hope for a rolldown slot. For the women, Ironman Canada is likely still changing the rankings, therefore the table for now only shows the athletes that are safe for a July slot.

July 31st: With the big points at IM Canada decided, the female ranking is now also finalized in the points slots. As for the men, the athletes shown in brackets (such as “(30)”) are out of the slot positions and have to hope for a rolldown slot. With an expected rolldown from Lucy Gossage, Corinne Abraham would receive a slot even though she’s in #29 and technically just outside the required ranking.

August 6th: The anticipated rolldown on the female side has happened: Lucy Gossage has declined her slot which Corinne Abraham accepted. Not all athletes have accepted their slot yet, but there is no other known rolldown.

August 7th: On the Ironman website Camilla Pedersen and David Plese are still not shown with a Q, but both have indicated on Instagram that they have accepted their slots. This means that for now there will be no additional rolldown slots.

Male KPR Rankings

Female KPR Rankings

Lucy Gossage has said multiple times that she is going to decline her slot, so it’s very likely that Corinne Abraham will receive a rolldown slot in the next few days. (Therefore, I have not put Corinne’s 29 into brackets.)