Race

Next up on the IM calendar is one of the newest races: IM St. George in Utah. After the small pro field at IM Australia, we’ve got a few more participants on the start list. Here is an overview of the predictions, each athlete’s results can be found in the IM St. George details post.

Previous Results

Last year was the first IM race in St. George.

Here are the top 3 pros:

Rank	Name	Nation	Time
1	Michael Weiss	AUT	08:40:08
2	Ben Hoffman	USA	08:52:54
3	Chris McDonald	AUS	08:54:42

 

Rank	Name	Nation	Time
1	Heather Wurtele	CAN	09:35:26
2	Meredith Kessler	USA	09:46:58
3	Caitlin Snow	USA	10:07:26

The race was really slow, it resulted in an adjustment of –2:55 (yes, negative 2:55!). I’ve got a handful of such  slow races in the database, but one thing is sure: Don’t expect a quick race next Saturday!

Men’s Predictions

There are nearly 30 men on the start list:

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Michael Weiss	AUT	08:44:11	08:41:22	15
2	Maik Twelsiek	GER	08:49:54	08:47:03	27
3	Mathias Hecht	SWI	08:55:39	08:52:46	39
4	Ben Hoffman	USA	09:03:35	09:00:40	64
5	Mike Aigroz	SWI	09:04:12	09:01:17	69
6	Balazs Csoke	HUN	09:06:35	09:03:39	76
7	Bevan Mckinnon	NZL	09:07:48	09:04:52	83
8	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	09:07:57	09:05:01	85
9	TJ Tollakson	USA	09:09:20	09:06:23	88
10	Joe Mcdaniel	USA	09:11:55	09:08:57	92
11	Ernst Moser	AUT	09:16:00	09:13:01	105
12	Christian Brader	GER	09:19:13	09:16:13	109
13	Bruno Clerbout	BEL	09:21:14	09:18:13	117
14	Markus Strini	AUT	09:24:34	09:21:32	132
15	Paul Ambrose	AUS	09:24:47	09:21:45	135
16	Billy Edwards	USA	09:38:35	09:35:29	210
17	Scott Defilippis	USA	09:42:06	09:38:59	224
18	Kevin Everett	USA	09:45:01	09:41:53	239
19	Craig Howie	USA	09:56:12	09:53:00	295
20	Heath Thurston	USA	10:15:00	10:11:42	383
21	Dantley Young	USA	10:21:54	10:18:34	410
22	Luke Way	CAN	10:40:27	10:37:01	479
23	Daniel MacDonald	CAN	12:54:22	12:50:13	575
24	Cedric Largajolli		n/a	unrated	n/a
25	Jeff Paul		n/a	unrated	n/a
26	Matt Burgess	NZL	n/a	unrated	n/a
27	Chris Wichert		n/a	unrated	n/a
28	Alexandro Santamaria		n/a	unrated	n/a

Last year’s winner is back (and the top rated athlete), but last year’s second Ben Hoffmann has been displaced by better rated Maik Twlsiek (my personal favorite athlete!) and Mathias Hecht for the podium spots in the prediction. There is a ton of pretty closely rated athletes, so it looks like it’s going to be an interesting race.

Women’s Predictions

As with the men, last year’s winner Heather Wurtele is back and tops the predictions:

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Heather Wurtele	CAN	09:50:25	09:47:15	21
2	Meredith Kessler	USA	09:54:33	09:51:22	29
3	Tamara Kozulina	UKR	09:57:19	09:54:07	35
4	Dede Griesbauer	USA	10:08:04	10:04:48	52
5	Uli Bromme	USA	10:12:33	10:09:16	63
6	Andrea Steinbecher	GER	10:21:18	10:17:58	85
7	Kelly Liljeblad	USA	10:27:50	10:24:28	99
8	Irene Kinnegim	NLD	10:38:17	10:34:51	130
9	Miranda Alldritt	CAN	11:15:04	11:11:27	182
10	Liis Toomingas		n/a	unrated	n/a
11	Jodie Swallo		n/a	unrated	n/a
12	Jackie Arendt		n/a	unrated	n/a
13	Amber Ferreira		n/a	unrated	n/a

As for the men’s race, it promises to be quite interesting with a nice number of similarly rated athletes. I’m keeping my fingers crossed for my country woman Andrea Steinbecher, who won IM Germany a few years back under her maiden name of Andrea Brede and has had a few struggling years.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Michael Weiss	AUT	08:44:11	08:41:22	15
2	Maik Twelsiek	GER	08:49:54	08:47:03	27
3	Mathias Hecht	SWI	08:55:39	08:52:46	39
4	Ben Hoffman	USA	09:03:35	09:00:40	64
5	Mike Aigroz	SWI	09:04:12	09:01:17	69
6	Balazs Csoke	HUN	09:06:35	09:03:39	76
7	Bevan Mckinnon	NZL	09:07:48	09:04:52	83
8	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	09:07:57	09:05:01	85
9	TJ Tollakson	USA	09:09:20	09:06:23	88
10	Joe Mcdaniel	USA	09:11:55	09:08:57	92
11	Ernst Moser	AUT	09:16:00	09:13:01	105
12	Christian Brader	GER	09:19:13	09:16:13	109
13	Bruno Clerbout	BEL	09:21:14	09:18:13	117
14	Markus Strini	AUT	09:24:34	09:21:32	132
15	Paul Ambrose	AUS	09:24:47	09:21:45	135
16	Billy Edwards	USA	09:38:35	09:35:29	210
17	Scott Defilippis	USA	09:42:06	09:38:59	224
18	Kevin Everett	USA	09:45:01	09:41:53	239
19	Craig Howie	USA	09:56:12	09:53:00	295
20	Heath Thurston	USA	10:15:00	10:11:42	383
21	Dantley Young	USA	10:21:54	10:18:34	410
22	Luke Way	CAN	10:40:27	10:37:01	479
23	Daniel MacDonald	CAN	12:54:22	12:50:13	575
24	Cedric Largajolli		n/a	unrated	n/a
25	Jeff Paul		n/a	unrated	n/a
26	Matt Burgess	NZL	n/a	unrated	n/a
27	Chris Wichert		n/a	unrated	n/a
28	Alexandro Santamaria		n/a	unrated	n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Heather Wurtele	CAN	09:50:25	09:47:15	21
2	Meredith Kessler	USA	09:54:33	09:51:22	29
3	Tamara Kozulina	UKR	09:57:19	09:54:07	35
4	Dede Griesbauer	USA	10:08:04	10:04:48	52
5	Uli Bromme	USA	10:12:33	10:09:16	63
6	Andrea Steinbecher	GER	10:21:18	10:17:58	85
7	Kelly Liljeblad	USA	10:27:50	10:24:28	99
8	Irene Kinnegim	NLD	10:38:17	10:34:51	130
9	Miranda Alldritt	CAN	11:15:04	11:11:27	182
10	Liis Toomingas		n/a	unrated	n/a
11	Jodie Swallo		n/a	unrated	n/a
12	Jackie Arendt		n/a	unrated	n/a
13	Amber Ferreira		n/a	unrated	n/a

Results for Michael Weiss (AUT)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	08:29:15	08:35:59	08:41:22	13
IM St. George	2010-05-01	08:40:08	08:37:20	08:44:23	1
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	08:55:54	08:52:06	08:52:06	25

Results for Maik Twelsiek (GER)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	08:27:02	08:33:44	08:47:03	12
IM Lake Placid	2010-07-25	08:48:33	09:00:51	08:49:09	3
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	08:35:10	08:31:31	08:47:03	12
IM Lake Placid	2009-07-26	08:36:37	08:35:22	08:49:59	1
IM Australia	2009-04-05	08:34:10	08:46:37	08:53:15	5
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	08:48:37	08:49:46	08:55:03	14
IM Wisconsin	2007-09-09	08:52:49	09:06:21	08:56:49	1
Challenge Roth	2007-06-24	08:17:03	08:46:55	08:53:07	6
Challenge Roth	2006-06-24	08:31:53	08:57:21	08:56:50	9
IM South Africa	2006-03-18	09:02:19	08:56:18	08:56:18	9

Results for Mathias Hecht (SWI)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM New Zealand	2011-03-05	08:45:36	08:55:28	08:52:46	3
IM South Africa	2010-04-25	08:28:53	08:45:52	08:52:13	2
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	08:37:29	08:33:49	08:53:36	13
IM Australia	2009-04-05	09:08:03	09:21:20	08:58:34	12
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	08:34:02	08:35:09	08:51:44	8
IM Lake Placid	2008-07-20	08:56:33	09:01:20	08:58:06	3
IM Australia	2008-04-06	08:42:47	08:54:21	08:56:12	3
IM Hawaii	2006-10-21	08:54:16	08:58:32	08:58:32	34

Results for Ben Hoffman (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	09:03:29	09:10:40	09:00:40	42
IM Lake Placid	2010-07-25	08:39:34	08:51:40	08:57:48	1
IM St. George	2010-05-01	08:52:54	08:50:01	09:00:10	2
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	09:29:54	09:25:52	09:06:07	58
IM Arizona	2008-11-23	08:24:13	08:43:19	08:43:19	6

Results for Mike Aigroz (SWI)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	09:18:34	09:14:37	09:01:17	46
IM Canada	2009-08-30	08:40:17	08:47:42	08:47:42	2

Results for Balazs Csoke (HUN)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM South Africa	2011-04-10	08:43:06	09:03:39	09:03:39	10

Results for Bevan Mckinnon (NZL)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka	2011-01-01	09:07:37	08:52:02	09:04:52	3
IM New Zealand	2009-03-07	09:01:14	09:22:07	09:22:07	9

Results for Petr Vabrousek (CZE)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM South Africa	2011-04-10	08:40:36	09:01:03	09:05:01	8
IM New Zealand	2011-03-05	08:58:30	09:08:36	09:05:12	6
Challenge Wanaka	2011-01-01	09:27:44	09:11:34	09:05:02	5
IM Florida	2010-11-06	08:29:59	08:55:05	09:04:43	7
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	08:56:26	09:03:32	09:05:12	41
IM Canada	2010-08-29	08:39:16	08:57:57	09:05:17	4
IM Lake Placid	2010-07-25	08:46:33	08:58:49	09:05:41	2
IM St. George	2010-05-01	09:09:43	09:06:45	09:06:05	6
Challenge Wanaka	2010-01-16	09:00:08	09:16:06	09:06:03	4
IM Arizona	2009-11-22	08:37:45	09:08:55	09:05:27	10
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	09:23:03	09:19:04	09:05:14	50
IM Wisconsin	2009-09-13	09:08:26	09:14:25	09:04:22	7
IM Lake Placid	2009-07-26	09:10:24	09:09:04	09:03:42	6
Challenge Roth	2009-07-12	08:15:03	08:47:53	09:03:19	10
IM South Africa	2009-04-05	08:36:07	08:54:04	09:04:28	3
Challenge Wanaka	2009-01-01	08:44:38	09:00:03	09:05:16	2
IM Arizona	2008-11-23	08:28:09	08:47:24	09:05:41	8
IM Florida	2008-11-01	08:23:00	08:51:00	09:07:15	3
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	09:04:42	09:05:53	09:15:21	33
IM Lake Placid	2008-07-20	08:55:20	09:00:06	09:16:15	2
IM Australia	2008-04-06	09:11:11	09:23:23	09:17:52	11
Challenge Wanaka	2008-01-19	09:09:36	09:22:43	09:17:17	7
IM Florida	2007-11-03	08:53:05	09:20:00	09:16:40	21
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	09:42:26	09:47:02	09:16:15	71
IM Arizona	2007-04-15	08:41:59	08:59:57	08:58:22	4
IM South Africa	2007-03-18	08:48:19	08:50:40	09:13:44	4
IM Hawaii	2006-10-21	09:10:45	09:15:09	09:17:40	54
IM Lake Placid	2006-07-23	09:03:12	09:02:15	09:18:09	7
IM Arizona	2006-04-09	08:44:54	08:59:16	09:21:43	8
IM South Africa	2006-03-18	08:38:52	08:33:07	09:27:49	3
IM Hawaii	2005-10-15	09:12:17	09:15:48	09:47:59	54
IM Wisconsin	2005-09-11	11:19:03	11:15:00	10:04:53	22
IM Arizona	2005-04-09	08:49:46	08:49:46	08:49:46	4

Results for TJ Tollakson (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	08:54:00	09:01:04	09:06:23	38
IM Arizona	2009-11-22	08:20:22	08:50:29	09:07:34	2
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	09:06:20	09:02:28	09:11:36	32
IM Coeur d’Alene	2009-06-21	08:42:03	09:02:02	09:14:22	2
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	09:53:43	09:55:00	09:19:21	68
IM Arizona	2008-04-13	08:34:36	08:51:44	08:59:14	2
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	09:03:05	09:07:22	09:07:22	29

Results for Joe Mcdaniel (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	08:43:23	09:08:57	09:08:57	9

Results for Ernst Moser (AUT)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Canada	2010-08-29	08:53:49	09:13:01	09:13:01	11

Results for Christian Brader (GER)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	08:33:43	08:40:31	09:16:13	16
IM Canada	2010-08-29	08:32:41	08:51:08	09:20:44	2
Challenge Roth	2010-07-18	10:23:03	10:50:40	09:24:56	23
IM St. George	2010-05-01	09:14:42	09:11:42	09:11:03	8
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	08:57:39	08:53:50	09:10:55	26
IM Lake Placid	2009-07-26	08:56:35	08:55:17	09:14:25	2
IM Australia	2009-04-05	10:03:56	10:18:34	09:19:07	19
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	08:50:08	08:51:17	09:00:57	19
IM Lake Placid	2008-07-20	08:58:10	09:02:58	09:04:45	4
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	09:06:16	09:10:35	09:05:51	35
IM Hawaii	2006-10-21	08:56:01	09:00:18	09:00:18	37

Results for Bruno Clerbout (BEL)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	09:13:33	09:40:36	09:18:13	23
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	08:55:11	08:51:24	08:51:24	24

Results for Markus Strini (AUT)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Florida	2010-11-06	09:03:21	09:30:05	09:21:32	20
IM St. George	2010-05-01	09:25:50	09:22:47	09:19:58	11
IM Wisconsin	2009-09-13	09:20:37	09:26:44	09:19:23	12
IM Lake Placid	2009-07-26	09:23:08	09:21:46	09:17:44	10
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	09:04:31	09:05:42	09:16:35	32
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	09:16:10	09:20:33	09:20:12	44
IM Australia	2007-04-08	09:07:22	09:17:03	09:20:03	8
IM Wisconsin	2006-09-10	09:32:38	09:20:13	09:21:46	4
IM Arizona	2006-04-09	09:08:24	09:23:25	09:23:25	18

Results for Paul Ambrose (AUS)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Australia	2010-03-28	08:38:24	08:54:10	09:21:45	5
IM Arizona	2009-11-22	08:24:54	08:55:17	09:37:31	5
IM Arizona	2008-11-23	10:04:18	10:27:11	10:27:11	43

Results for Billy Edwards (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid	2010-07-25	09:45:55	09:59:34	09:35:29	17
IM Coeur d’Alene	2010-06-27	09:14:42	09:36:58	09:31:52	11
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	09:59:30	09:55:15	09:30:59	72
IM Lake Placid	2009-07-26	09:12:09	09:10:49	09:26:33	7
IM Arizona	2008-11-23	09:17:02	09:38:08	09:29:55	27
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	09:24:34	09:29:01	09:27:58	55
IM Coeur d’Alene	2007-06-23	09:16:09	09:20:35	09:27:42	10
IM Hawaii	2006-10-21	09:22:27	09:26:57	09:29:54	68
IM Canada	2006-08-27	09:21:48	09:24:48	09:31:03	12
IM Hawaii	2005-10-15	09:36:45	09:40:25	09:34:47	72
IM Arizona	2005-04-09	09:28:40	09:28:40	09:28:40	18

Results for Scott Defilippis (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Florida	2010-11-06	08:43:35	09:09:21	09:38:59	12
IM St. George	2010-05-01	09:53:07	09:49:55	09:55:44	17
IM Florida	2009-11-07	09:31:53	10:02:02	10:02:02	17

Results for Kevin Everett (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	09:14:47	09:41:53	09:41:53	24

Results for Craig Howie (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid	2010-07-25	09:50:22	10:04:07	09:53:00	19
IM St. George	2010-05-01	09:48:38	09:45:27	09:49:15	16
IM Wisconsin	2009-09-13	09:55:17	10:01:47	09:51:04	16
IM Lake Placid	2007-07-22	09:25:25	09:29:32	09:42:49	3
IM Coeur d’Alene	2006-06-25	09:54:54	09:58:38	09:58:38	5

Results for Heath Thurston (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Canada	2009-08-30	10:08:42	10:17:22	10:11:42	30
IM Arizona	2008-11-23	09:57:00	10:19:37	10:08:14	41
IM Florida	2007-11-03	09:26:07	09:54:42	09:54:42	37

Results for Dantley Young (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Australia	2009-04-05	10:30:41	10:45:58	10:18:34	21
IM Canada	2008-08-24	09:19:31	09:38:47	10:02:59	23
IM Arizona	2008-04-13	10:08:24	10:28:39	10:28:39	18

Results for Luke Way (CAN)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Coeur d’Alene	2008-06-22	10:15:39	10:37:01	10:37:01	16

Results for Daniel MacDonald (CAN)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Canada	2010-08-29	11:48:23	12:13:52	12:50:13	29
IM Canada	2008-08-24	13:59:42	14:28:37	13:17:27	39
IM Canada	2007-08-26	11:36:13	11:53:46	11:53:46	31

Results for Cedric Largajolli ( )

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Results for Jeff Paul ( )

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Results for Matt Burgess (NZL)

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Results for Chris Wichert ( )

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Results for Alexandro Santamaria ( )

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Results for Heather Wurtele (CAN)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	09:19:10	09:46:29	09:47:15	5
IM Canada	2010-08-29	09:17:17	09:37:20	09:47:27	2
IM St. George	2010-05-01	09:35:26	09:32:20	09:50:37	1
IM Coeur d’Alene	2009-06-21	09:34:24	09:56:23	09:58:19	3
IM Canada	2008-08-24	09:39:51	09:59:49	09:59:27	3
IM Coeur d’Alene	2008-06-22	09:38:58	09:59:04	09:59:04	1

Results for Meredith Kessler (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	09:15:01	09:42:08	09:51:22	4
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	10:04:02	10:12:01	09:53:21	26
IM Canada	2010-08-29	09:13:46	09:33:41	09:48:21	1
IM Coeur d’Alene	2010-06-27	09:23:52	09:46:30	09:53:35	2
IM St. George	2010-05-01	09:46:58	09:43:48	09:57:21	2
IM Arizona	2009-11-22	09:37:09	10:11:53	10:11:53	7

Results for Tamara Kozulina (UKR)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Florida	2010-11-06	09:28:43	09:56:42	09:54:07	5
IM Florida	2009-11-07	09:12:47	09:41:56	09:53:41	2
IM Lake Placid	2009-07-26	09:56:24	09:54:58	09:55:35	4
IM Florida	2008-11-01	09:14:15	09:45:06	09:55:42	2
IM Arizona	2008-04-13	09:34:18	09:53:25	09:57:45	4
IM Florida	2007-11-03	09:20:10	09:48:27	09:58:40	5
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	09:56:16	10:00:58	10:01:13	20
IM Florida	2006-11-04	09:41:50	10:02:18	10:01:18	4
IM Coeur d’Alene	2006-06-25	10:10:46	10:14:36	10:00:54	9
IM Hawaii	2005-10-15	09:43:50	09:47:33	09:52:55	13
IM Arizona	2005-04-09	09:58:46	09:58:46	09:58:46	4

Results for Dede Griesbauer (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	10:40:14	10:48:42	10:04:48	37
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	09:40:59	09:36:52	09:52:33	9
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	09:39:53	09:41:08	09:57:26	10
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	09:33:34	09:38:06	10:03:17	7
IM Hawaii	2006-10-21	10:14:22	10:19:16	10:14:22	35
IM Hawaii	2005-10-15	09:54:34	09:58:21	10:11:25	18
IM Lake Placid	2005-07-24	10:20:44	10:24:58	10:24:58	8

Results for Uli Bromme (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	09:31:22	09:59:17	10:09:16	9
IM Canada	2010-08-29	09:46:19	10:07:24	10:14:46	7
IM Arizona	2009-11-22	09:47:44	10:23:07	10:23:07	10

Results for Andrea Steinbecher (GER)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Canada	2010-08-29	10:18:08	10:40:22	10:17:58	12
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	10:17:00	10:12:38	10:06:27	29
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	09:56:10	10:00:52	10:01:30	19
IM Hawaii	2005-10-15	09:58:35	10:02:23	10:02:23	22

Results for Kelly Liljeblad (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid	2010-07-25	09:59:54	10:13:52	10:24:28	5
IM Coeur d’Alene	2009-06-21	10:08:31	10:31:48	10:31:46	9
IM Lake Placid	2007-07-22	10:27:09	10:31:43	10:31:43	10

Results for Irene Kinnegim (NLD)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	10:03:33	10:11:32	10:34:51	25
IM Wisconsin	2009-09-13	10:01:34	10:08:08	10:39:31	2
IM Australia	2009-04-05	10:27:23	10:42:35	10:45:51	10
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	10:10:38	10:11:57	10:46:36	23
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	10:45:17	10:50:23	10:56:02	49
IM Lake Placid	2007-07-22	10:31:48	10:36:24	10:57:44	11
IM Hawaii	2006-10-21	10:28:03	10:33:04	11:06:27	45
IM Arizona	2006-04-09	10:45:33	11:03:13	11:25:21	15
IM Hawaii	2005-10-15	11:44:49	11:49:18	11:49:18	58

Results for Miranda Alldritt (CAN)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Canada	2010-08-29	12:47:12	13:14:48	11:11:27	18
IM St. George	2010-05-01	10:40:59	10:37:31	10:58:48	7
IM Arizona	2009-11-22	09:53:01	10:28:43	11:01:05	12
IM Coeur d’Alene	2009-06-21	13:39:19	14:10:41	11:04:42	14
IM New Zealand	2009-03-07	10:18:02	10:41:53	11:04:42	10
IM Arizona	2008-11-23	10:06:24	10:29:22	11:07:13	12
IM Wisconsin	2008-09-07	10:54:52	11:09:52	11:11:39	12
IM Canada	2008-08-24	11:21:23	11:44:51	11:11:53	17
IM Coeur d’Alene	2008-06-22	10:18:14	10:39:41	11:07:05	8
IM Arizona	2008-04-13	10:21:42	10:42:24	11:11:36	13
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	10:43:58	10:49:03	11:17:11	48
IM Arizona	2007-04-15	10:16:31	10:37:44	11:23:11	5
IM Canada	2006-08-27	11:15:34	11:19:11	11:34:20	17
IM Coeur d’Alene	2006-06-25	11:22:19	11:26:36	11:38:38	19
IM Hawaii	2005-10-15	11:27:13	11:31:35	11:43:14	55
IM Canada	2005-08-29	11:19:15	11:37:43	11:49:15	14
IM Coeur d’Alene	2005-06-26	11:42:45	12:01:08	12:01:08	5

Results for Liis Toomingas ( )

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Results for Jodie Swallo ( )

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Results for Jackie Arendt ( )

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Results for Amber Ferreira ( )

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Race Conditions

The reports from IM Australia indicated that the conditions were quite hard, with a heavy wind making the bike and run pretty hard when having to attack it head-on. This is borne out by the race results. Before the race, the course was rated 12:14 (i.e. 12:14 faster than a normalized course). This year’s results resulted in an adjustment of 9:30, so conditions were about 3 minutes slower than usually in Australia.

Male Results

The men’s field was not very deep, but after Craig Alexander’s cancellation a few days before the race the race was wide open. It even seemed possible that Patrick Vernay might be able to continue his winning streak. In the end, however, it was Pete Jacobs who scored his first IM win:

Rank	Name	Nation	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Pete Jacobs	AUS	08:29:28	08:37:27
2	Patrick Vernay	NCL	08:35:50	08:28:31
3	Jason Shortis	AUS	08:46:07	08:47:39
4	Scott Neyedli	GBR	08:47:16	08:55:25
5	Courtney Ogden	AUS	08:49:56	08:44:37
6	Luke Whitmore		08:54:57	n/a
7	Scott Curry	CAN	09:06:31	09:15:25
8	Chris Dmitrieff	AUS	09:39:26	09:02:06
9	Adam Holborow	AUS	09:40:49	09:12:55

Pete Jacobs continued his streak of strong race results, Patrick Vernay was just a little bit off but managed a 2nd place. 40-year old Jason Shortis almost exactly raced according to predictions and held off Scott Neyedli, whose good time wasn’t quite good enough for the podium.

The most interesting consequence of the race may be the changes to Crowie’s future race plans: He has to finish one Ironman to validate his Hawaii spot, and my prediction is that he will do an early race as soon as he is over his infection. Maybe he’ll be a late addition to IM Texas? (IM China may be good conditions for him – i.e. hot -  but probably “too hard” for what he is trying to achieve.)

Female Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Caroline Steffen	SWI	09:29:54	09:28:45
2	Amelia Pearson	AUS	09:38:23	10:03:08
3	Nicole Ward	AUS	09:49:23	10:08:16
4	Kirsten Molloy	AUS	09:53:55	10:08:46
5	Erin Spitler		10:08:33	n/a

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions.

I don’t think there ever was any doubt that Caroline Steffen would win this race as long as she finishes. She seemed to have some issues during the race, but finished right where I expected her. If she can enjoy a good Hawaii prep, she is certainly a contender for a podium finish, even if she seems to be not quite on the same level of Chrissie or Rinnie.

The next race on the IM calendar is Ironman Australia. Here is a look IM Australia and the upcoming race. Some additional details on the athletes can be found in the previous post.

Previous Results

Last year’s IM Australia results on Ironman.com and the race’s site are a bit of a mess, so here is “cleaned up” version of the pro results (at least to the best of what I was able to do looking at race results and press releases – please let me know if there’s anything wring) :

Male Race Results 2010

Rank	Name	Nation	Time
1	Patrick Vernay	NCL	08:23:54
2	Scott Neyedli	GBR	08:27:58
3	Courtney Ogden	AUS	08:35:54
4	Matt White	AUS	08:36:39
5	Paul Ambrose	AUS	08:38:24
6	Tim Berkel	AUS	08:40:46
7	Adam Holborow	AUS	08:48:36
8	David Meade	AUS	08:56:14
9	Adrian Cominotto		09:28:28
10	Nathan Fitzakerley		09:32:23
11	Joshua Rix		09:58:11

Female Race Results 2010

Rank	Name	Nation	Actual
1	Carrie Lester	AUS	09:23:46
2	Rebekah Keat	AUS	09:33:10
3	Amelia Pearson	AUS	09:46:09
4	Diana Riesler	GER	09:57:04
5	Kirsten Molloy	AUS	09:59:10
6	Conny Dauben	GER	10:46:03
7	Desiree Ficker	USA	11:14:54

Course Rating

Overall, IM Australia is about as fast as IM South Africa or IM Canada with a course rating of 12:41 (compared to 2:46 for IM Hawaii as the slowest course and 29:30 for Challenge Roth as the quickest course).

Having added the previous IM Australia results (generously supplied by Athlinks), there were some new results for Chris McCormack (winner in 2005 and 2006) and for Craig Alexander (3rd in 2007). As this was Crowie’s first IM race, he approached it cautiously and posted his slowest IM time. This resulted in Crowie dropping to the 3rd spot in the ratings (Macca still being No. 1). Andreas Raelert picked up one spot and is now 2nd – but he’s got some slower results in IM Germany (which is up for processing before the early July race).

Men’s Predictions

Here’s a look at my predictions for the men’s pro race:

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Craig Alexander	AUS	08:09:21	08:24:42	3
2	Patrick Vernay	NCL	08:21:53	08:37:38	10
3	Pete Jacobs	AUS	08:30:43	08:46:44	24
4	Courtney Ogden	AUS	08:37:55	08:54:10	40
5	Jason Shortis	AUS	08:40:46	08:57:06	48
6	Scott Neyedli	GBR	08:48:25	09:05:00	82
7	Chris Dmitrieff	AUS	08:55:01	09:11:48	100
8	Adam Holborow	AUS	09:05:42	09:22:49	144
9	Nathan Stewart	AUS	09:07:09	09:24:19	151
10	Scott Curry	CAN	09:08:11	09:25:23	164
11	Gavin Scott	NZL	09:08:23	09:25:35	165

Craig Alexander is the overall favorite, and should be able to post a finishing time close to 8 hours. I’m quite interested in Pete Jacobs performance, he seems to be on a pretty good development (posting the fastest run split in Kona), and if he has a good day, he might be one to give Craig a bit of a scare. Behind the TOP3 there are another 3 good, solid athletes that will try to take a spot on the podium – and I’m sure that 6th ranked Scott Neyedli will try to defend his 2nd spot from last year.

Women’s Predictions

As in the men’s race, there is a clear pre-race favorite:

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Caroline Steffen	SWI	09:21:22	09:38:59	12
2	Amelia Pearson	AUS	09:55:15	10:13:56	74
3	Nicole Ward	AUS	10:00:32	10:19:23	85
4	Kirsten Molloy	AUS	10:00:49	10:19:40	86

Chrissie Wellington had another amazing race in South Africa – this is what most triathlon new sites are reporting. Here’s a closer look at the statistical outcome of this race.

Race Adjustment

IM South Africa is usually a medium quick race (course handicap around 10 minutes), but in the last few years has been a bit faster – not sure what has caused this, but there might have been some course changes before the 2008 race. Compared to these years, the 2011 race was typical with an adjustment of 17:27. (To recap, the adjustment is the average difference between the participant’s ratings and their actual race time.) Conditions have been reported to be quite nice, but maybe a bit hot during the run. This may have contributed to quite a few big names dropping out, for example the pre-race favorite Marino Vanhoenacker, Luke Bell, Rutger Beke, Jason Shortis, Michael Göhner, Bert Jammaer and Natascha Badmann. Tom Lowe didn’t even start the race, but I haven’t heard anything of why that was the case.

Female Results

As noted above, the big result this weekend was Chrissie Wellington’s quick time, so I’ll start with the females:

Rank	Name	Nation	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Chrissie Wellington	GBR	08:33:56	08:40:32
2	Rachel Joyce	GBR	09:08:23	09:23:52
3	Diana Riesler	GER	09:20:37	n/a
4	Silvia Felt	GER	09:24:31	n/a
5	Amanda Stevens	USA	09:25:50	n/a
6	Belinda Granger	AUS	09:28:59	09:28:29
7	Simone Benz	SWI	09:31:21	10:55:35
8	Martina Dogana	ITA	09:47:47	09:40:28
9	Yvette Grice	GBR	09:59:28	10:14:56
10	Eva Dollinger	AUT	10:00:24	09:34:34
11	Claire Horner	SAF	10:11:55	10:47:25
12	Helen Buley	SAF	10:26:29	10:17:14
13	Caroline Koll	SAF	10:37:39	10:17:59

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions.

Chrissie posted a quicker time than her 8:36 at IM Arizona time from last November. (I find it a bit silly to call it an “IM world record” knowing that she posted an 8:19 in Roth 2010.)  Looking at the statistics, the TOP4 best results ever are from Chrissie – and all on different courses!

Rank	Name	Adjusted Result	Actual Result	Race
1	Wellington, Chrissie	08:40:26	08:19:13	Challenge Roth on 2010-07-18
2	Wellington, Chrissie	08:48:59	08:54:02	IM Hawaii on 2009-10-10
3	Wellington, Chrissie	08:50:32	08:33:56	IM South Africa on 2011-04-10
4	Wellington, Chrissie	09:00:42	08:36:13	IM Arizona on 2010-11-21

Simply amazing – for me that’s about as impressive as the fact that Chrissie posted the overall best run split. The sky seems to be the limit for her.

Behind Chrissie, Rachel Joyce had another great race, but her excellent 9:03 – twenty minutes quicker than expected – pales in comparison with Chrissie’s performance. With Natascha not finishing, I predicted Belinda Granger to round out the TOP3, but even with her solid 9:28 (almost exactly as predicted) it was a trio of three unrated pros coming in before her and Diana Riesler getting the third spot.

Male Results

On the male side, there was quite a bit back and forth at the top of the race, and finally home favorite Raynard Tissink was able to defend his title from last year. All the athletes that were much better rated than him dropped out (most notably Marino Vanhoenacker who was right in the mix), but it was a hard-fought win and he had to post a new course record of 8:05, more than 20 minutes quicker than expected. A really great performance from such an established athlete!

Rank	Name	Nation	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Raynard Tissink	SAF	08:05:36	08:28:38
2	Andreas Bocherer	GER	08:08:36	09:12:29
3	James Cunnama	ZAF	08:13:18	08:47:47
4	Daniel Fontana	ITA	08:18:51	08:33:00
5	Cyril Viennot	FRA	08:30:42	n/a
6	Eduardo Sturla	ARG	08:32:52	08:27:20
7	Uwe Widmann	GER	08:33:39	08:30:42
8	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	08:40:36	08:46:06
9	Trevor Delsaut	FRA	08:41:57	n/a
10	Balazs Csoke	HUN	08:43:06	n/a
11	Dominik Berger	AUT	08:52:24	n/a
12	Kent Horner	SAF	08:58:39	09:18:39
13	Toby Radcliffe	GBR	09:01:17	09:17:13
14	Mike Schifferle	SWI	09:04:02	09:07:13
15	Sergio Marques	PRT	09:09:30	08:50:00
16	Craig Twigg	GBR	09:10:01	n/a
17	Gilad Rotem	ISR	09:12:06	n/a
18	Erik-Simon Strijk	NDL	09:16:32	n/a
19	Bryn Freeman	SAF	09:23:29	09:27:21
20	Erich Felbabel	FRA	09:23:36	n/a
21	Marcel Bischof	GER	09:32:47	n/a
22	Heinrich Sickl	AUT	10:08:14	09:28:07
23	Freddy Lampret	SAF	10:46:11	09:38:47

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions. 

After Raynard, my young countryman Andy Böcherer had a great result and came in second – more than one hour quicker than expected! (Then again, I just had one race in my database for him, probably one of his slower results.) Another South African, James Cunnama, managed to snag the last spot on the podium, he was also more than half an hour quicker than expected. A lot of people had told me that Cunnama was underrated before the race, so I’ll have a look at my methodology before my next round of predictions for IM Australia …