Race

The next race on the IM calendar is coming up soon: IM South Africa will be held on April 10th. I’ve put together a preview for this race, based on the pro list (from early March) from their website at http://www.triangle.cc/event/default.asp?micrositeid=2. This list is almost a month old, so some changes are to be expected.

The Course

IM South Africa is medium fast race  with a course rating of 10:31. It is 8 1/2 minutes faster than IM Hawaii (course rating of 1:53), but more than 15 minutes slower than Challenge Roth (course rating of 27:41). The last few years, however, were pretty quick (race handicaps of 17 to 22 minutes), so if the conditions are right, the race can be fast (comparable to typical results at IM Arizona).

The Male Field

Here are the predictions for the male pros (for more infos, see my IM South Africa details):

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Marino Vanhoenacker	BEL	08:17:19	08:33:38	8
2	Tom Lowe	GBR	08:18:43	08:35:04	9
3	Michael Goehner	GER	08:24:32	08:41:05	15
4	Eduardo Sturla	ARG	08:27:37	08:44:16	21
5	Rutger Beke	BEL	08:27:49	08:44:28	22
6	Raynard Tissink	SAF	08:28:56	08:45:37	23
7	Uwe Widmann	GER	08:31:00	08:47:45	29
8	Swen Sundberg	GER	08:39:35	08:56:37	47
9	Jason Shortis	AUS	08:39:38	08:56:40	48
10	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	08:46:24	09:03:40	74
11	James Cunnama	ZAF	08:48:05	09:05:24	81
12	Luke Bell	AUS	08:48:52	09:06:13	84
13	Sergio Marques	PRT	08:50:18	09:07:41	87
14	Bert Jammaer	BEL	08:59:28	09:17:10	110
15	Patrick Wallimann	SWI	09:01:03	09:18:48	123
16	Mike Schifferle	SWI	09:07:32	09:25:29	161
17	Andreas Bocherer	GER	09:12:47	09:30:55	184
18	Toby Radcliffe	GBR	09:17:32	09:35:49	206
19	Heinrich Sickl	AUT	09:28:26	09:47:05	253

Some interesting things:

• it’ll be interesting to see the race between the established Marino Vanhoenacker (with excellent results over the last 6 seasons) and the newcomer Tom Lowe (whose single results from IM Arizona last November would be good enough for a spot on the TOP 10).
• If both of them race, look for the pair of Rutger Beke and Rayard Tissink. Rutger hasn’t had too many good IM results lately, while Raynard has had a great IM Hawaii and is always racing strong in his home race. (However, Raynard is rumored to consider dropping out of the race.)

The Female Pro Field

I’ve got some predictions for the women’s field as well (again, for some previous race results, see my IM South Africa details post):

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Chrissie Wellington	GBR	08:40:49	08:57:54	1
2	Natascha Badmann	SWI	09:11:38	09:29:43	5
3	Rachel Joyce	GBR	09:24:11	09:42:41	16
4	Belinda Granger	AUS	09:28:48	09:47:27	23
5	Eva Dollinger	AUT	09:34:54	09:53:45	35
6	Martina Dogana	ITA	09:40:48	09:59:51	43
7	Yvette Grice	GBR	10:15:17	10:35:28	122
8	Nicole Woysch	GER	10:37:44	10:58:39	153
9	Simone Benz	SWI	10:55:57	11:17:28	171

Some things of note here:

• The real question for the women’s race is probably not if Chrissie is going to win but how far up in the men’s field she’s going to end up. Based on the ratings, I’m calling a TOP 10 finish, but not much higher up if the people from the pro list actually show up.
• I’m quite interested in how Natascha Badmann is going to perform: Her last posted race is more than four years ago, and she’s had some up and down years in between. If she has a solid race, she should be able to finish runner-up.
• However, Rachel Joyce and Belinda Granger are solid racers that are not too far off – and they will try to make the race for TOP3 interesting.

This Saturday, Cameron Brown won IM New Zealand for an amazing 10th time. The women’s race was an unexpected win by Sam Warriner.

(Photos from news article at Ironman website.)

Here is a closer look at the results.

Conditions

The conditions on race day sounded really bad – there was a lot of rain, probably also pretty cold weather. While these horrible sounding conditions are sometimes actually quite good for fast racing, this was not the case for New Zealand:

• Course Rating prior to race: 18:39
• Adjustment for 2011 race: 7:06

This means that New Zealand is usually about a quarter hour faster than IM Hawaii (which has a course rating of 2:50), but this year was about 11:30 minutes slower than usual. This is pretty much in line with the horrible race conditions.

Men’s Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Cameron Brown	NZL	08:31:07	08:29:55
2	Terenzo Bozzone	NZL	08:41:54	08:34:29
3	Mathias Hecht	SWI	08:45:36	08:39:17
4	Keegan Williams	NZL	08:49:34	08:47:01
5	Scott Curry	CAN	08:50:44	09:32:03
6	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	08:58:30	09:00:44
7	Tuukka Miettinen	FIN	09:12:16	09:20:32
8	Gavin Scott	NZL	09:15:10	n/a
9	Hiroyuki Nishiuchi	JPN	09:25:39	09:15:47
10	James Bowstead	NZL	09:39:38	09:42:59
11	Brent Foster	NZL	09:46:45	09:33:27
12	Scott McGregor	NZL	09:52:32	n/a
13	Kerry Weeks	NZL	10:04:24	n/a
14	Rich Munro	AUS	10:53:20	09:33:45

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions.

Among the top athletes, Cameron was the one that was least affected by the conditions and landed a really convincing win. Petr Vabrousek was also even better than his expected time, but was passed by Scott Curry who really improved on his prior results.

Women’s Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Samantha Warriner	NZL	09:28:24	n/a
2	Mirinda Carfrae	AUS	09:31:33	09:00:22
3	Joanna Lawn	NZL	09:31:53	09:28:29
4	Kate Bevilaqua	AUS	09:40:01	10:06:56
5	Belinda Harper	NZL	09:40:33	n/a
6	Kirsten Molloy	AUS	09:49:02	n/a
7	Michelle Mitchell	AUS	09:50:04	n/a
8	Renee Lane	AUS	10:01:59	n/a
9	Maki Nishiuchi	JPN	10:16:48	10:19:06
10	Jo Carrel	NZL	10:54:31	10:50:28

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions.

Previously unrated Sam Warriner pulled off a surprise win. Her first rated race would put her into a Top10 spot in the rankings (but I require a minimum of two rated races). (I think I read somewhere that she has done a previous IM-distance race. Does anyone know where? Please let me know in the comments.)

Top rated Mirinda Carfrae had two flats on the bike, and she just edged out Jo Lawn. Kate Bevilaqua and the the other previously unrated women also performed well, posting solid times and provided some close racing.

Since my last post, I’ve worked a bit more on the results and ratings I have on file for IM New Zealand. Here is the full data!

Male Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Rating	Rank
1	Cameron Brown	NZL	08:37:51	10
2	Terenzo Bozzone	NZL	08:42:44	15
3	Mathias Hecht	SWI	08:46:24	25
4	Keegan Williams	NZL	08:55:41	39
5	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	09:04:30	67
6	Hiroyuki Nishiuchi	JPN	09:24:17	126
7	Tuukka Miettinen	FIN	09:27:59	139
8	Scott Curry	CAN	09:40:52	191
9	Brent Foster	NZL	09:43:01	196
10	Rich Munro	AUS	09:43:11	197
11	Heinrich Sickl	AUT	09:46:31	213
12	James Bowstead	NZL	09:52:15	238
13	John Carey	AUS	09:59:37	269
14	Kerry Weeks	NZL	unrated	n/a
15	Scott McGregor	NZL	unrated	n/a
16	Gavin Scott	NZL	unrated	n/a
17	Matt Burgess	NZL	unrated	n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Rating	Rank
1	Mirinda Carfrae	AUS	09:08:06	2
2	Joanna Lawn	NZL	09:38:39	11
3	Sarah Pollett	AUS	10:03:11	45
4	Britta Martin	NZL	10:13:15	58
5	Kate Bevilaqua	AUS	10:16:25	66
6	Maki Nishiuchi	JPN	10:26:58	85
7	Donna Phelan	USA	10:30:50	92
8	Desiree Ficker	USA	10:51:22	121
9	Amanda Balding	USA	11:22:07	142
10	Jo Carrel	NZL	unrated	n/a
11	Laura-Clare Whelan	NZL	unrated	n/a
12	Michelle Mitchell	AUS	unrated	n/a
13	Samantha Warriner	NZL	unrated	n/a
14	Hannah Lawrence	NZL	unrated	n/a
15	Kirsten Molloy	AUS	unrated	n/a
16	Michelle Bremer	NZL	unrated	n/a
17	Renee Lane	AUS	unrated	n/a
18	Belinda Harper	NZL	unrated	n/a

Results for Cameron Brown (NZL)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	08:34:10	08:42:00	08:37:51	17
IM New Zealand	2010-03-06	08:21:52	08:36:49	08:37:08	1
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	08:53:41	08:49:28	08:37:11	22
IM New Zealand	2009-03-07	08:18:05	08:40:39	08:34:38	1
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	08:26:17	08:28:44	08:33:14	5
IM New Zealand	2008-03-01	08:24:49	08:47:00	08:34:30	1
IM New Zealand	2007-03-03	08:26:33	08:43:20	08:30:16	1
IM Hawaii	2006-10-21	08:25:22	08:29:12	08:25:01	8
IM Hawaii	2005-10-15	08:19:36	08:24:31	08:22:28	2
IM New Zealand	2005-05-03	08:20:15	08:20:15	08:20:15	1

Results for Terenzo Bozzone (NZL)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	08:38:23	08:46:17	08:42:44	20
IM New Zealand	2010-03-06	08:30:00	08:45:12	08:41:20	2
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	08:34:45	08:30:41	08:39:10	11
IM New Zealand	2009-03-07	08:25:37	08:48:31	08:48:31	2

Results for Mathias Hecht (SWI)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	08:37:29	08:33:24	08:46:24	13
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	08:34:02	08:36:32	08:52:05	8
IM Lake Placid	2008-07-20	08:56:33	09:03:31	09:01:17	3
IM Hawaii	2006-10-21	08:54:16	08:58:19	08:58:19	34

Results for Keegan Williams (NZL)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM New Zealand	2010-03-06	08:40:11	08:55:41	08:55:41	4

Results for Petr Vabrousek (CZE)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Florida	2010-11-06	08:29:59	08:55:03	09:04:30	7
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	08:56:26	09:04:37	09:05:16	41
IM Canada	2010-08-29	08:39:16	08:55:00	09:05:19	4
IM Lake Placid	2010-07-25	08:46:33	08:56:37	09:06:17	2
IM Arizona	2009-11-22	08:37:45	09:04:34	09:07:15	10
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	09:23:03	09:18:36	09:07:31	50
IM Lake Placid	2009-07-26	09:10:24	09:07:45	09:06:19	6
IM Arizona	2008-11-23	08:28:09	08:46:39	09:06:09	8
IM Florida	2008-11-01	08:23:00	08:51:26	09:08:26	3
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	09:04:42	09:07:20	09:10:39	33
IM Lake Placid	2008-07-20	08:55:20	09:02:17	09:11:09	2
IM Florida	2007-11-03	08:53:05	09:18:46	09:12:37	21
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	09:42:26	09:49:54	09:11:33	71
IM Arizona	2007-04-15	08:41:59	09:00:01	09:03:30	4
IM Hawaii	2006-10-21	09:10:45	09:14:56	09:04:20	54
IM Lake Placid	2006-07-23	09:03:12	08:56:42	09:01:19	7
IM Arizona	2006-04-09	08:44:54	09:00:48	09:03:03	8
IM Hawaii	2005-10-15	09:12:17	09:17:43	09:04:20	54
IM Arizona	2005-04-09	08:49:46	08:49:46	08:49:46	4

Results for Hiroyuki Nishiuchi (JPN)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	09:11:43	09:20:08	09:24:17	48
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	09:23:13	09:18:46	09:25:39	51
IM Canada	2008-08-24	09:13:56	09:35:20	09:28:20	20
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	09:18:41	09:25:50	09:24:58	48
IM Hawaii	2005-10-15	09:17:17	09:22:46	09:24:20	62
IM New Zealand	2005-05-03	09:26:02	09:26:02	09:26:02	21

Results for Tuukka Miettinen (FIN)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Coeur d’Alene	2009-06-21	09:02:49	09:27:59	09:27:59	5

Results for Scott Curry (CAN)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	09:19:39	09:28:11	09:40:52	52
IM Canada	2010-08-29	08:48:57	09:04:59	09:42:53	9
IM Canada	2009-08-30	09:20:09	09:31:30	09:49:55	16
IM Coeur d’Alene	2009-06-21	09:04:45	09:30:00	09:53:21	7
IM Canada	2008-08-24	08:52:36	09:13:10	09:58:31	11
IM Coeur d’Alene	2008-06-22	09:18:50	09:36:59	10:09:23	8
IM Florida	2007-11-03	10:30:03	11:00:24	10:19:15	51
IM Canada	2007-08-26	11:32:04	11:47:59	10:03:41	30
IM Florida	2006-11-04	08:45:12	09:03:14	09:03:19	5
IM Canada	2006-08-27	08:55:57	09:03:24	09:03:24	5

Results for Brent Foster (NZL)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM New Zealand	2009-03-07	10:15:13	10:43:05	09:43:01	22
IM Arizona	2006-04-09	09:02:10	09:18:35	09:08:39	15
IM Hawaii	2005-10-15	08:54:41	08:59:56	09:03:09	34
IM Coeur d’Alene	2005-06-26	08:52:35	09:06:31	09:06:31	5

Results for Rich Munro (AUS)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM New Zealand	2010-03-06	09:26:18	09:43:11	09:43:11	8

Results for Heinrich Sickl (AUT)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	09:01:31	09:27:12	09:46:31	16
IM Arizona	2008-11-23	09:32:21	09:53:11	09:53:28	32
IM Canada	2008-08-24	09:16:53	09:38:24	09:53:34	21
IM Florida	2006-11-04	09:56:35	10:17:04	10:01:19	34
IM Florida	2005-11-05	09:21:53	09:44:23	09:51:37	20
IM Arizona	2005-04-09	09:59:34	09:59:34	09:59:34	25

Results for James Bowstead (NZL)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM New Zealand	2010-03-06	09:02:46	09:18:56	09:52:15	5
IM New Zealand	2008-03-01	10:06:43	10:33:22	10:17:13	22
IM New Zealand	2007-03-03	09:39:03	09:58:14	09:58:14	14

Results for John Carey (AUS)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM New Zealand	2010-03-06	09:42:16	09:59:37	09:59:37	10

Results for Kerry Weeks (NZL)

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Results for Scott McGregor (NZL)

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Results for Gavin Scott (NZL)

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Results for Matt Burgess (NZL)

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Results for Mirinda Carfrae (AUS)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	08:58:36	09:06:49	09:08:06	1
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	09:13:59	09:09:37	09:09:37	2

Results for Joanna Lawn (NZL)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	09:43:08	09:52:01	09:38:39	20
IM New Zealand	2010-03-06	09:14:35	09:31:07	09:36:35	1
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	09:34:45	09:30:13	09:37:28	7
IM New Zealand	2009-03-07	09:23:08	09:48:38	09:38:47	2
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	09:45:33	09:48:23	09:36:51	14
IM New Zealand	2008-03-01	09:16:00	09:40:26	09:34:15	1
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	09:26:47	09:34:03	09:32:40	4
IM New Zealand	2007-03-03	09:20:02	09:38:35	09:32:14	1
IM Hawaii	2006-10-21	09:32:48	09:37:09	09:29:40	7
IM Hawaii	2005-10-15	09:14:53	09:20:20	09:25:06	4
IM New Zealand	2005-05-03	09:30:14	09:30:14	09:30:14	1

Results for Sarah Pollett (AUS)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM New Zealand	2010-03-06	09:45:44	10:03:11	10:03:11	4

Results for Britta Martin (NZL)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM New Zealand	2010-03-06	09:47:11	10:04:41	10:13:15	5
IM New Zealand	2009-03-07	09:56:18	10:23:19	10:23:19	8

Results for Kate Bevilaqua (AUS)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	10:19:31	10:28:58	10:16:25	34
IM Lake Placid	2010-07-25	09:53:39	10:04:59	10:13:18	4
IM New Zealand	2010-03-06	10:18:12	10:36:37	10:15:56	7
IM New Zealand	2008-03-01	09:20:06	09:44:43	10:07:09	2
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	10:00:56	10:08:38	10:17:03	25
IM Hawaii	2005-10-15	10:07:42	10:13:41	10:23:00	31
IM Coeur d’Alene	2005-06-26	10:16:40	10:32:48	10:32:48	2

Results for Maki Nishiuchi (JPN)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	10:31:57	10:26:58	10:26:58	35

Results for Donna Phelan (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	10:19:20	10:28:46	10:30:50	33
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	10:30:38	10:33:41	10:33:41	35

Results for Desiree Ficker (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	11:07:48	11:11:02	10:51:22	42
IM Canada	2008-08-24	09:56:09	10:19:11	10:47:42	6
IM Lake Placid	2008-07-20	11:09:30	11:18:12	10:54:05	7
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	10:40:43	10:48:55	10:47:15	47
IM Hawaii	2006-10-21	09:24:02	09:28:19	10:46:42	2
IM Arizona	2006-04-09	09:44:56	10:02:39	11:17:53	4
IM Lake Placid	2005-07-24	14:01:55	14:07:39	12:01:06	20
IM Arizona	2005-04-09	09:48:26	09:48:26	09:48:26	2

Results for Amanda Balding (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Florida	2008-11-01	10:09:38	10:44:06	11:22:07	9
IM Canada	2008-08-24	11:13:05	11:39:05	11:32:53	16
IM New Zealand	2008-03-01	10:53:05	11:21:47	11:30:32	13
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	11:49:33	11:58:38	11:35:14	56
IM Canada	2007-08-26	10:56:14	11:11:20	11:11:20	18

Results for Jo Carrel (NZL)

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Results for Laura-Clare Whelan (NZL)

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Results for Michelle Mitchell (AUS)

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Results for Samantha Warriner (NZL)

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Results for Hannah Lawrence (NZL)

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Results for Kirsten Molloy (AUS)

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Results for Michelle Bremer (NZL)

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Results for Renee Lane (AUS)

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Results for Belinda Harper (NZL)

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