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Race Conditions

The conditions in Louisville were pretty fast this year: I’ve calculated a race adjustment of 6:10 while the new course rating is at 0:19. The bike was pretty typical, but both the swim and the bike were quicker than in the past years.

Male Race Results

Chris McDonald won the race in a new course record. He was close to the lead on the swim, then posted a new bike course record and also the fastest run of the day. Last year’s winner Patrick Evoe and Thomas Gerlach were close together for most of the day, then Patrick pulled away to secure the runner up spot. The same podium as last year, just in a slightly different order.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected
1	Chris McDonald	AUS	00:48:56	04:29:14	02:57:56	08:21:34	-20:26
2	Patrick Evoe	USA	00:51:57	04:36:29	03:00:48	08:34:16	-18:46
3	Thomas Gerlach	USA	00:51:52	04:36:28	03:07:12	08:41:11	-09:01
4	Jonathan Shearon	USA	00:48:58	04:40:19	03:07:30	08:43:24	-20:59
5	Ryan Bates	USA	00:48:47	04:45:10	03:17:52	08:57:38	n/a
6	Mike Hermanson	USA	00:50:44	04:54:15	03:13:53	09:05:01	-14:39
7	Devon Palmer	USA	00:48:59	04:45:54	03:35:39	09:16:21	06:11
8	Andrew Hodges	USA	00:48:17	05:18:41	03:24:08	09:38:28	-18:25
9	Jesse Vondracek	USA	00:51:50	05:06:17	03:35:46	09:38:58	13:45
10	Peter Kotland	USA	00:52:35	05:29:28	03:48:45	10:20:01	34:17
11	Ed Donner	USA	00:55:04	05:10:11	04:13:43	10:25:39	n/a

Female Race Results

On the female side, Kate Bevilaqua had a great race, posting better than expected times in all three legs. She was in the lead (or within just a minute or so) for the whole day, but it seemed she never have a comfortable enough lead to relax for a minute. She didn’t have the best time for any of the legs, but won by more than four minutes.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected
1	Kate Bevilaqua	AUS	00:49:03	05:13:32	03:20:29	09:29:02	-24:46
2	Brooke Brown	CAN	00:59:59	05:13:15	03:15:39	09:33:46	n/a
3	Whitney Garcia	USA	00:55:00	05:08:09	03:24:30	09:34:21	-20:19
4	Nina Kraft	GER	00:48:52	05:17:53	03:25:30	09:38:45	09:35
5	April Gellatly	USA	00:52:29	05:15:25	03:26:06	09:39:40	-27:50
6	Rachel Jastrebsky	USA	00:55:16	05:23:39	03:31:56	09:56:24	n/a
7	Svetlana Blazevic	SCG	00:48:44	05:20:21	03:43:03	09:58:08	-11:50
8	Cindy Lewis	CAN	00:58:37	05:34:34	03:33:20	10:12:48	00:51
9	Caroline Gregory	USA	00:52:31	05:39:50	03:51:33	10:28:53	14:11
10	Tami Ritchie	USA	00:48:58	06:06:52	03:36:23	10:38:22	06:29

IM Canada has moved locations: Last year it was held in its “traditional” venue in Penticton. However, the town felt the race was neglected by WTC (evidenced by the race being on the lowest level of KPR points – P-1000 – and prize money – 25.000 US$) and decided to have the race organized under the Challenge banner. (They will hold their race on the same weekend.) WTC then quickly announced a new location for IM Canada in Whistler – giving the race an improved status by designating it a P-2000 race with a prize purse of 75.000 US$.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

As mentioned above, last year’s IM Canada was held in Penticton on a different course.

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Matthew Russell	USA	01:03:04	04:48:41	02:53:34	08:48:30
2	Olly Piggin	CAN	00:56:51	04:48:43	03:05:25	08:54:17
3	Christian Brader	GER	00:57:29	04:48:19	03:09:52	08:58:59

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Gillian Clayton	CAN	01:08:32	05:16:51	03:17:08	09:46:07
2	Karen Thibodeau	CAN	00:55:41	05:30:09	03:21:43	09:50:52
3	Janelle Morrison	CAN	01:06:46	05:16:47	03:25:57	09:53:20

Course Records and Rating

As this is the first race on this course, there are no course records and the course is unrated so far.

KPR points and Price Money

IM Canada has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total price purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

There are a lot of names on this list that have raced last week in Mont Tremblant. Expect to see a few withdrawals.

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	Paul Amey	GBR	n/a	08:42:53	00:50:13	04:48:26	03:02:53	51
2	Daniel Halksworth	GBR	n/a	08:47:12	00:47:34	04:47:34	03:07:42	68
3	Jonathan Caron	CAN	n/a	08:56:09	00:49:47	04:57:04	03:06:33	99
4	Matthew Russell	USA	n/a	08:56:32	01:02:53	04:49:21	02:59:26	100
5	Bruno Clerbout	BEL	n/a	08:57:13	00:51:04	04:58:49	02:59:31	103
6	Dominik Berger	AUT	n/a	09:00:09	00:48:20	04:50:12	03:20:53	117
7	Mike Schifferle	SUI	n/a	09:03:05	01:00:25	04:51:21	03:06:57	127
8	Nigel Gray	CAN	n/a	09:09:05	00:55:29	04:50:27	03:18:36	141
9	Trevor Wurtele	CAN	n/a	09:09:05	00:54:49	04:52:27	03:17:52	141
10	Matthew Sheeks	USA	n/a	09:11:08	01:03:24	05:04:13	02:57:38	150
11	Bryan Rhodes	NZL	n/a	09:14:05	00:47:47	04:53:59	03:22:41	162
12	Matt Lieto	USA	n/a	09:17:47	00:52:07	04:46:42	03:31:28	168
13	Paul Hawkins	GBR	n/a	09:20:04	00:58:30	05:28:53	03:20:25	171
14	Thomas Maliszewski	USA	n/a	09:34:03	01:03:35	05:11:04	03:06:05	214
15	Jim Lubinski	USA	n/a	09:43:49	01:01:29	05:12:24	03:24:58	250
16	Nathan Birdsall	USA	n/a	10:01:16	01:06:43	04:54:29	03:52:59	301
17	Stephen Kilshaw	CAN	n/a	10:02:25	00:54:17	05:08:53	03:53:39	303
18	Brendan Naef	CAN	n/a	10:39:39	00:58:02	05:15:02	03:20:43	352
	Dan Litwora	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	Andrew Russell	CAN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	Lisa Ribes	USA	n/a	09:46:02	01:04:38	05:20:06	03:17:14	51
2	Keiko Tanaka	JAP	n/a	09:49:00	00:54:20	05:27:02	03:23:36	59
3	Gillian Moody	CAN	n/a	09:49:34	00:55:06	05:27:42	03:23:14	60
4	Christine Anderson	USA	n/a	09:59:23	00:54:45	05:29:06	03:33:12	77
5	Uli Bromme	USA	n/a	10:00:27	01:02:55	05:23:34	03:29:26	80
6	Olesya Prystayko	UKR	n/a	10:13:34	00:59:34	05:32:14	03:39:50	98
7	Annett Kamenz	GER	n/a	10:24:47	01:04:04	05:46:24	03:36:42	120
8	Christine Fletcher	CAN	n/a	10:26:57	00:59:12	05:31:45	03:47:37	121
	Sarah Baker	CAN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	Martina Wan	CAN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	Kristyn Tobey	BMU	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	Julie Van Veelen	CAN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	Christina Jackson	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• Paul Amey: 27% (3-1)
• Daniel Halksworth: 23% (3-1)
• Trevor Wurtele: 19% (4-1)
• Matthew Russell: 10% (9-1)
• Bruno Clerbout: 9% (10-1)
• Jonathan Caron: 5% (18-1)
• Dominik Berger: 3% (28-1)
• Bryan Rhodes: 3% (37-1)

Female Race Participants

• Lisa Ribes: 37% (2-1)
• Uli Bromme: 23% (3-1)
• Gillian Moody: 16% (5-1)
• Annett Kamenz: 8% (11-1)
• Christine Anderson: 7% (14-1)
• Keiko Tanaka: 6% (15-1)
• Olesya Prystayko: 2% (59-1)

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Patrick Evoe	USA	00:58:15	04:33:31	03:06:01	08:42:44
2	Chris McDonald	AUS	00:56:26	04:47:28	03:04:09	08:52:59
3	Thomas Gerlach	USA	00:56:19	04:39:52	03:21:33	09:02:42

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Bree Wee	USA	00:56:21	05:12:18	03:22:03	09:36:27
2	Jackie Arendt	USA	00:56:18	05:15:47	03:20:12	09:38:14
3	Terra Castro	USA	00:58:18	05:23:22	03:25:57	09:53:27

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:25:27	Victor Zyemtsev	2009-08-28
Swim	overall	00:44:54	John Flanagan	2009-08-28
Bike	overall	04:31:36	Paul Ambrose	2010-08-29
Run	overall	02:43:48	Victor Zyemtsev	2009-08-28
Total	female	09:20:21	Nina Kraft	2009-08-28
Swim	female	00:48:52	Nina Kraft	2007-08-26
Swim	female	00:48:52	Carole Sharpless	2007-08-26
Bike	female	05:02:24	Lisbeth Kristensen	2009-08-28
Run	female	03:05:07	Kim Loeffler	2009-08-28

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Louisville is – 00:39.

Race Adjustments for IM Louisville

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2007	-07:32	00:25	00:27	-06:52	21	-07:32	00:25	00:27	-06:52
2008	-08:51	-02:37	01:50	-06:48	26	-08:11	-01:06	01:09	-06:50
2009	02:07	-01:43	01:42	04:20	33	-04:45	-01:18	01:20	-03:07
2010	-03:45	-00:58	03:26	-08:19	18	-04:30	-01:13	01:51	-04:25
2011	09:09	01:13	04:47	04:37	16	-01:46	-00:44	02:27	-02:36
2012	04:57	-02:38	04:27	-03:16	12	-00:39	-01:03	02:47	-02:43

KPR points and Price Money

IM Louisville has 1000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total price purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

The Top3 from last year are back and will race again .. hard to pick a favorite:

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	Chris McDonald	AUS	08:48:30	08:47:52	00:52:52	04:44:53	03:04:53	71
2	Thomas Gerlach	USA	08:56:59	08:56:20	00:54:52	04:45:25	03:13:01	99
3	Patrick Evoe	USA	08:59:35	08:58:56	00:55:41	04:46:21	03:11:18	110
4	Jonathan Shearon	USA	09:11:05	09:10:25	00:54:28	04:49:37	03:26:45	145
5	Guy Crawford	AUS	09:13:34	09:12:54	00:49:04	04:47:04	03:37:45	156
6	Devon Palmer	USA	09:17:13	09:16:33	00:52:33	04:49:31	03:27:53	167
7	Jesse Vondracek	USA	09:32:33	09:31:51	00:55:50	05:12:34	03:19:58	204
8	Kyle Pawlaczyk	USA	09:37:37	09:36:55	00:54:53	05:12:13	03:28:37	226
9	Tom Wood	USA	09:39:09	09:38:27	00:56:57	05:16:16	03:17:03	232
10	John Hirsch	USA	09:45:16	09:44:34	00:55:38	05:15:29	03:25:11	253
11	Peter Kotland	USA	09:53:35	09:52:52	00:58:10	05:14:58	03:30:04	276
12	Andrew Hodges	USA	10:04:20	10:03:36	00:50:33	05:34:08	03:35:25	304
13	Mike Hermanson	USA	10:26:42	10:25:57	00:55:16	05:23:09	03:55:03	348
	Ryan Bates	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	Ed Donner	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	Nina Kraft	GER	09:36:30	09:35:48	00:50:52	05:22:20	03:18:36	31
2	Kate Bevilaqua	AUS	10:00:36	09:59:52	00:56:52	05:21:59	03:36:52	79
3	Whitney Garcia	USA	10:02:00	10:01:16	00:59:21	05:32:55	03:30:28	82
4	April Gellatly	USA	10:15:06	10:14:21	00:56:48	05:30:07	03:40:56	102
5	Svetlana Blazevic	SCG	10:17:21	10:16:36	00:51:44	05:38:16	03:43:45	107
6	Cindy Lewis	CAN	10:19:49	10:19:04	01:04:09	05:32:41	03:37:07	112
7	Caroline Gregory	USA	10:22:34	10:21:49	00:58:30	05:45:29	03:39:06	118
8	Tami Ritchie	USA	10:39:59	10:39:13	00:51:29	06:02:37	03:48:49	125
	Rachel Jastrebsky	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	Brooke Brown	CAN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• Patrick Evoe: 46% (1-1)
• Chris McDonald: 36% (2-1)
• Thomas Gerlach: 10% (9-1)
• Guy Crawford: 4% (23-1)
• Jonathan Shearon: 2% (54-1)

Female Race Participants

• Nina Kraft: 47% (1-1)
• Kate Bevilaqua: 22% (4-1)
• Whitney Garcia: 13% (7-1)
• April Gellatly: 6% (15-1)
• Cindy Lewis: 4% (23-1)
• Svetlana Blazevic: 4% (23-1)
• Caroline Gregory: 3% (34-1)

Results for Chris McDonald (AUS)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Coeur d’Alene	2013-06-23	00:53:07	04:56:24	02:49:09	08:42:10	08:45:30	08:47:52	5
IM Louisville	2012-08-26	00:56:26	04:47:28	03:04:09	08:52:59	08:57:52	08:48:08	2
IM New York	2012-08-11	00:43:34	04:40:37	03:13:39	08:41:30	08:48:23	08:47:09	10
IM Louisville	2011-08-28	00:51:47	04:35:45	02:55:22	08:27:36	08:36:12	08:47:00	1
IM Brasil	2011-05-29				08:24:34	08:45:54	08:48:01	5
IM Florida	2010-11-06	00:51:29	04:33:01	03:03:02	08:32:37	08:43:23	08:48:13	9
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	00:57:53	04:44:30	03:05:16	08:52:04	08:51:37	08:48:39	35
Challenge Roth	2010-07-18	00:54:42	04:35:17	03:04:39	08:37:22	08:53:00	08:48:22	10
IM Coeur d’Alene	2010-06-27	00:55:47	04:42:39	03:07:01	08:48:30	08:55:34	08:47:55	5
IM St. George	2010-05-01	00:51:20	04:54:02	03:06:25	08:54:42	08:45:56	08:47:06	3
IM Wisconsin	2009-09-13	00:54:21	04:43:14	03:13:05	08:56:47	08:57:16	08:47:14	5
Challenge Roth	2009-07-12	00:50:30	04:22:31	03:01:39	08:17:39	08:37:51	08:46:12	11
Challenge Wanaka	2009-01-01				08:37:41	08:43:27	08:47:06	1
IM Arizona	2008-11-23	00:50:25	04:33:54	03:31:02	08:58:59	09:09:09	08:47:29	17
IM Wisconsin	2008-09-07	00:51:52	04:48:41	02:56:40	08:43:29	08:44:39	08:45:04	1
IM Louisville	2008-08-27	00:54:53	04:36:13	03:19:48	08:54:54	08:46:08	08:45:07	2
Challenge Roth	2008-07-13	00:50:02	04:29:38	02:58:25	08:20:59	08:38:56	08:44:59	4
Challenge Wanaka	2008-01-19				08:49:37	08:44:52	08:45:52	2
IM Western Australia	2007-12-01	00:52:17	04:26:53	03:02:02	08:21:12	08:43:33	08:46:00	8
IM Louisville	2007-08-26	00:51:54	04:39:58	03:00:34	08:38:40	08:31:26	08:46:24	1
Challenge Roth	2007-06-24	00:51:27	04:31:27	02:57:54	08:24:42	08:45:20	08:49:04	9
IM Western Australia	2006-12-03	00:51:59	04:32:27	03:11:34	08:36:00	08:50:52	08:49:49	4
IM Wisconsin	2006-09-10	00:57:33	04:55:17	03:13:02	09:12:35	08:52:07	08:49:36	2
IM Lake Placid	2006-07-23	00:52:35	05:01:32	03:08:54	09:07:55	08:50:41	08:48:59	9
IM Australia	2006-05-11	00:50:01	04:55:16	03:11:54	08:57:11	08:57:53	08:48:28	8
IM Western Australia	2005-11-27	00:55:10	04:38:00	03:04:28	08:37:38	08:39:27	08:44:37	6
Challenge Canada	2005-08-29	00:54:58	04:42:31	03:06:13	08:47:10	08:48:13	08:47:31	5
IM New Zealand	2005-05-03	00:52:38	04:49:55	02:59:38	08:46:45	08:46:45	08:46:45	5

Results for Thomas Gerlach (USA)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Coeur d’Alene	2013-06-23	00:58:04	04:47:31	03:10:35	09:00:02	09:03:29	08:56:20	7
IM Los Cabos	2013-03-17	00:58:30	04:41:51	03:03:02	08:47:46	08:44:44	08:55:03	7
IM Arizona	2012-11-18	00:54:29	04:28:54	03:08:49	08:36:05	08:46:32	08:57:07	10
IM Florida	2012-11-03	00:57:45	04:15:57	03:14:54	08:33:26	08:48:55	08:59:29	11
IM Wisconsin	2012-09-09	00:54:42	04:45:21	03:12:19	08:58:20	08:54:04	09:02:29	6
IM Louisville	2012-08-26	00:56:19	04:39:52	03:21:33	09:02:42	09:07:40	09:05:37	3
IM St. George	2012-04-29	00:59:19	05:33:54	03:12:14	09:49:00	08:59:04	09:04:26	4
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	00:57:04	04:43:37	03:12:27	08:57:00	09:10:31	09:10:31	27

Results for Patrick Evoe (USA)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Australia	2013-05-05	00:53:20	04:51:16	02:54:58	08:42:58	08:54:57	08:58:56	2
IM Cozumel	2012-11-25	00:58:00	04:38:02	04:03:03	09:42:47	09:48:38	08:59:38	24
IM Louisville	2012-08-26	00:58:15	04:33:31	03:06:01	08:42:44	08:47:31	08:50:36	1
IM Cozumel	2011-11-27	00:53:02	04:24:09	02:59:23	08:30:36	08:40:22	08:51:14	2
IM Louisville	2011-08-28	00:54:16	04:39:10	02:52:26	08:30:35	08:39:14	08:53:25	2
IM Texas	2011-05-21	00:58:30	04:30:26	02:59:28	08:32:29	08:41:18	08:56:40	8
IM Cozumel	2010-11-28				08:35:27	08:44:45	09:00:49	7
IM Louisville	2010-08-29	00:56:07	04:48:06	03:03:40	08:53:14	08:49:32	09:05:44	4
IM Coeur d’Alene	2010-06-27	01:00:55	04:51:38	02:56:10	08:52:05	08:59:11	09:12:13	7
IM Cozumel	2009-11-29	00:51:00	04:45:52	05:28:43	11:09:12	11:14:09	09:59:15	12
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	01:03:30	05:19:23	03:29:10	09:56:43	09:48:47	09:20:14	60
IM Lake Placid	2008-07-20	00:57:48	04:57:50	03:12:49	09:14:18	09:11:45	09:03:02	9
IM Louisville	2007-08-26	00:59:09	04:49:47	03:03:55	08:59:16	08:51:44	08:51:44	5

Results for Jonathan Shearon (USA)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin	2012-09-09	00:54:41	04:51:17	03:36:02	09:28:54	09:24:24	09:10:25	13
IM Texas	2012-05-19	00:56:55	04:34:20	03:10:12	08:46:37	08:55:07	08:55:07	11

Results for Guy Crawford (AUS)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
Challenge Taiwan	2013-05-04	00:52:55	04:35:37	03:12:51	08:46:07	08:53:21	09:12:54	6
IM Coeur d’Alene	2012-06-24	00:51:28	04:50:17	04:02:10	09:47:12	09:47:25	09:22:56	11
IM Western Australia	2011-12-04	00:49:33	04:32:55	03:44:06	09:10:50	09:14:03	09:06:32	13
IM Western Australia	2010-12-05	00:49:06	04:43:12	03:15:14	08:50:28	08:56:31	08:56:31	9

Results for Devon Palmer (USA)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Florida	2011-11-05	00:54:01	04:35:18	03:18:47	08:55:37	09:16:33	09:16:33	16
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	00:51:24	04:40:05	03:28:09	09:04:49	09:16:33	09:16:33	16

Results for Jesse Vondracek (USA)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Cozumel	2012-11-25	00:57:36	05:14:18	03:12:31	09:28:13	09:33:55	09:31:51	22
IM Wisconsin	2012-09-09	00:58:48	05:22:50	03:15:53	09:43:54	09:39:17	09:31:32	16
IM St. George	2012-04-29	00:58:47	06:06:57	03:20:21	10:29:36	09:36:14	09:30:12	8
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	00:56:59	04:45:21	03:07:28	08:53:56	09:07:22	09:29:05	26
IM Florida	2011-11-05	00:55:06	04:39:22	03:06:01	08:45:27	09:05:59	09:33:17	14
IM Wisconsin	2011-09-11	00:58:27	05:13:34	04:12:18	10:30:44	10:22:20	09:39:45	13
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	00:56:40	05:06:13	03:17:17	09:24:08	09:36:17	09:27:16	25
IM Louisville	2010-08-29	00:57:26	05:08:05	03:15:03	09:25:52	09:21:56	09:24:32	7
IM Lake Placid	2010-07-25	00:57:33	05:08:33	03:07:00	09:18:10	09:21:36	09:25:33	9
IM Arizona	2009-11-22	00:59:01	05:00:52	03:19:21	09:23:27	09:36:18	09:28:02	24
IM Louisville	2009-08-28	00:59:43	05:05:04	03:07:14	09:17:01	09:19:12	09:19:12	13

Results for Kyle Pawlaczyk (USA)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Florida	2012-11-03	00:58:00	04:56:04	05:23:13	11:23:06	11:43:42	09:36:55	27
IM Coeur d’Alene	2011-06-26	00:57:42	05:07:00	03:10:43	09:19:50	09:20:37	09:36:55	8
IM Florida	2010-11-06	00:55:02	04:48:51	03:51:14	09:40:43	09:52:55	09:47:06	26
IM Lake Placid	2010-07-25	00:57:31	05:19:18	03:14:24	09:37:13	09:40:47	09:40:47	16

Results for Tom Wood (USA)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid	2013-07-28	00:56:49	05:22:59	03:15:02	09:40:44	09:38:27	09:38:27	13

Results for John Hirsch (USA)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid	2013-07-28	00:54:46	05:25:02	03:22:46	09:48:49	09:46:30	09:44:34	16
IM Lake Placid	2011-07-24	00:57:35	05:20:51	03:22:43	09:45:50	09:47:33	09:43:37	10
IM Lake Placid	2010-07-25	00:58:22	05:18:44	03:14:22	09:36:33	09:40:06	09:42:09	15
IM Louisville	2009-08-28	00:57:42	05:13:39	03:33:37	09:49:48	09:52:07	09:42:57	22
IM Louisville	2008-08-27	00:59:28	05:09:52	03:23:59	09:37:03	09:27:36	09:39:02	10
IM Louisville	2007-08-26	00:56:02	05:09:31	03:31:32	09:44:15	09:36:06	09:44:26	15
IM Lake Placid	2006-07-23	00:54:10	05:23:33	03:21:55	09:45:26	09:27:02	09:49:00	20
IM Florida	2005-11-05	00:57:07	04:56:06	03:30:38	09:32:03	09:46:28	10:03:35	23
IM Arizona	2005-04-09	00:59:53	05:32:47	03:46:17	10:23:47	10:23:47	10:23:47	23

Results for Peter Kotland (USA)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid	2013-07-28	01:00:25	05:29:33	03:54:55	10:32:46	10:30:16	09:52:52	20
IM Louisville	2009-08-28	00:57:52	05:07:20	03:06:48	09:20:28	09:22:40	09:29:30	14
IM Louisville	2008-08-27	00:59:33	05:06:11	03:19:39	09:32:51	09:23:28	09:31:14	9
IM Florida	2007-11-03	00:57:40	04:48:56	03:11:30	09:04:44	09:24:26	09:33:03	27
IM Louisville	2007-08-26	00:56:07	05:04:01	03:11:53	09:22:20	09:14:29	09:35:01	13
IM Coeur d’Alene	2007-06-23	01:00:26	05:30:22	03:09:33	09:45:34	09:47:46	09:40:41	19
IM Florida	2006-11-04	00:58:29	05:06:36	03:08:18	09:22:25	09:35:25	09:38:10	20
IM Wisconsin	2006-09-10	01:01:27	05:38:46	03:24:27	10:18:42	09:55:47	09:39:20	13
IM Florida	2005-11-05	00:57:40	04:50:07	03:13:25	09:08:36	09:22:25	09:28:11	14
IM Brasil	2005-05-28	00:57:35	05:16:44	03:20:22	09:34:43	09:34:43	09:34:43	12

Results for Andrew Hodges (USA)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Texas	2013-05-18	00:51:52	05:06:39	03:29:26	09:33:42	09:41:29	10:03:36	16
IM Louisville	2012-08-26	00:53:10	05:43:14	03:42:23	10:25:07	10:30:51	10:30:51	9

Results for Mike Hermanson (USA)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Louisville	2012-08-26	00:57:48	05:18:11	03:58:45	10:20:16	10:25:57	10:25:57	8

Results for Ryan Bates (USA)

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Results for Ed Donner (USA)

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Results for Nina Kraft (GER)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Louisville	2011-08-28	00:50:14	05:22:47	03:19:17	09:38:14	09:48:02	09:35:48	1
IM Louisville	2009-08-28	00:52:56	05:14:29	03:07:32	09:20:21	09:22:33	09:27:40	1
IM Florida	2007-11-03	00:50:43	04:59:22	03:11:12	09:05:35	09:25:19	09:30:44	1
IM Louisville	2007-08-26	00:48:52	05:28:43	03:27:18	09:51:56	09:43:40	09:33:41	2
IM Brasil	2007-05-27	00:50:39	05:07:49	03:14:12	09:12:40	09:22:58	09:22:58	1

Results for Kate Bevilaqua (AUS)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
Challenge Taiwan	2013-05-04	00:56:26	05:24:00	03:39:14	10:05:09	10:13:29	09:59:52	3
Challenge Wanaka	2013-01-19	01:00:42	05:33:58	03:43:11	10:22:49	10:17:01	09:57:44	6
IM Western Australia	2011-12-04	00:57:00	05:05:56	03:36:14	09:43:37	09:47:01	09:54:27	6
IM Korea	2011-07-03	00:55:08	05:04:49	03:35:28	09:39:44	09:45:27	09:55:30	1
IM New Zealand	2011-03-05	00:58:28	05:11:55	03:23:55	09:40:01	09:36:38	09:56:55	4
IM Western Australia	2010-12-05	01:01:43	04:53:52	03:20:42	09:19:44	09:26:07	09:59:55	1
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	01:01:45	05:26:59	03:45:54	10:19:31	10:19:00	10:05:18	34
IM Lake Placid	2010-07-25	00:57:27	05:27:02	03:23:12	09:53:39	09:57:19	10:02:50	4
IM Lanzarote	2010-05-22	00:57:53	05:34:47	03:39:36	10:19:45	10:11:47	10:03:58	5
IM New Zealand	2010-03-06	00:57:11	05:12:47	04:02:19	10:18:12	10:26:26	10:02:05	7
IM Western Australia	2009-12-05	01:03:22	05:02:57	03:39:33	09:45:53	09:59:10	09:54:57	5
IM New Zealand	2008-03-01	00:55:01	05:06:56	03:12:39	09:20:06	09:26:03	09:53:22	2
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	01:03:05	05:33:42	03:17:07	10:00:56	09:58:32	10:01:20	24
IM Australia	2007-04-08	00:55:19	05:22:03	03:19:40	09:37:02	09:39:28	10:02:19	4
IM Western Australia	2006-12-03	00:55:29	05:05:57	03:25:39	09:27:05	09:43:26	10:12:20	4
IM Lanzarote	2006-05-20	00:55:17	06:18:00	03:31:22	10:51:14	10:42:45	10:31:23	5
IM Coeur d’Alene	2005-06-26	00:56:45	05:35:38	03:37:24	10:16:40	10:16:40	10:16:40	2

Results for Whitney Garcia (USA)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin	2012-09-09	01:01:24	05:33:04	03:32:24	10:14:32	10:09:40	10:01:16	7
IM Coeur d’Alene	2012-06-24	01:01:56	05:32:47	03:20:18	10:01:46	10:01:59	09:57:53	3
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	00:58:23	05:06:28	03:29:10	09:40:22	09:54:58	09:55:23	13
IM Wisconsin	2011-09-11	01:00:39	05:24:18	03:29:33	10:03:53	09:55:50	10:54:06	3
IM Cozumel	2009-11-29	00:55:46	06:16:22	04:57:20	12:25:53	12:31:24	12:31:24	11

Results for April Gellatly (USA)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Coeur d’Alene	2013-06-23	00:56:32	05:35:57	03:52:41	10:30:45	10:34:47	10:14:21	11
IM Texas	2013-05-18	00:59:01	05:22:36	03:34:11	10:01:54	10:10:04	10:10:15	7
IM Los Cabos	2013-03-17	00:56:39	05:26:08	03:24:21	09:52:36	09:49:12	10:10:18	8
IM Cozumel	2012-11-25	01:03:38	05:16:01	03:33:10	09:57:59	10:03:59	10:16:38	17
IM Louisville	2012-08-26	00:59:33	05:12:42	03:50:39	10:09:45	10:15:20	10:21:25	5
IM Lake Placid	2010-07-25	01:01:31	05:40:46	03:41:02	10:28:52	10:32:45	10:24:44	12
IM Cozumel	2009-11-29	00:50:59	05:34:51	03:30:39	10:01:40	10:06:07	10:21:20	6
IM Louisville	2009-08-28	00:59:55	05:29:09	03:45:24	10:20:00	10:22:26	10:29:37	8
IM Lake Placid	2009-07-26	00:56:49	05:45:14	03:50:54	10:38:05	10:37:00	10:37:00	10
IM Arizona	2008-11-23	00:57:54	05:25:42	07:07:21	13:38:21	13:53:47	13:53:47	16

Results for Svetlana Blazevic (SCG)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM South Africa	2013-04-14	00:52:50	05:22:13	03:48:07	10:08:42	10:15:02	10:16:36	10
IM Austria	2011-07-03	00:50:48	05:20:30	03:12:31	09:30:15	09:56:53	10:18:20	9
IM Australia	2009-04-05	00:52:40	06:04:51	03:59:01	10:56:33	10:59:13	10:59:13	10

Results for Cindy Lewis (CAN)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2012-11-18	01:07:21	05:15:03	03:28:49	09:57:08	10:09:14	10:19:04	17
IM Louisville	2011-08-28	01:02:18	05:25:47	03:29:48	10:04:14	10:14:28	10:24:16	6
Challenge Roth	2011-07-10	01:00:10	05:09:30	03:32:09	09:45:56	10:11:30	10:30:04	8
IM Lake Placid	2008-07-20	01:04:29	05:52:17	03:46:38	10:53:06	10:50:06	10:54:43	8
Challenge Canada	2007-08-26	01:09:23	05:54:42	03:45:20	10:56:42	11:00:41	11:00:41	20

Results for Caroline Gregory (USA)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM South Africa	2013-04-14	00:57:55	05:39:31	03:56:56	10:38:17	10:44:55	10:21:49	13
IM Texas	2012-05-19	01:02:55	05:29:01	03:31:32	10:07:47	10:17:35	10:10:28	8
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	00:58:32	05:22:17	03:25:44	09:50:44	10:05:36	10:06:08	19
IM Coeur d’Alene	2011-06-26	01:02:25	05:42:26	03:16:49	10:05:53	10:06:44	10:06:44	4

Results for Tami Ritchie (USA)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Texas	2012-05-19	00:53:33	05:48:25	03:42:19	10:30:05	10:40:15	10:39:13	10
IM Cozumel	2011-11-27	00:48:53	05:43:56	03:49:29	10:26:04	10:38:02	10:38:02	12

Results for Rachel Jastrebsky (USA)

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Results for Brooke Brown (CAN)

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It is always good to know that I’m not the only one spending time analyzing Ironman results. My analysis is focused on finishing times – John Levison from TRI247.COM has used an analysis of Kona positions to come up with a potential winners for the men’s race in Kona 2012. He’s got the same five names that are at the top of my predictions: Crowie, Macca, Andreas, Marino, and Pete.

Check out his interesting discussion of these and some other athletes at Pro Men: how to win in Kona…and the five men that can WIN in 2012.

Update: John has done a similar analysis for the women’s field and identified four women that can WIN in 2012.

 

The recent discussion on IM Talk about the Kona ranking prompted John Newsom to ask me for my Top 10 ratings. I’m not totally happy with the races that I have evaluated (most notable, Austria and Switzerland are missing which may lead to some shifting around), but I think the general TOP10 look quite stable, so I’ve decided to take the bait and publish the rankings and a little discussion. If you want to have a more detailed look at the individual race results, choose “Top 10 Ratings” from the menu or follow the link.

Male Athletes

Here is a table with “my” TOP 10 male pros:

Rank	Name	Rating	Last Race	# Races
1	Raelert, Andreas	08:19:58	IM Hawaii on 2010-10-09	5
2	McCormack, Chris	08:20:38	IM Hawaii on 2010-10-09	13
3	Alexander, Craig	08:22:44	IM Hawaii on 2010-10-09	5
4	Llanos, Eneko	08:27:07	IM Texas on 2011-05-21	13
5	Bracht, Timo	08:27:19	IM Lanzarote on 2011-05-21	13
6	Henning, Rasmus	08:28:21	IM Arizona on 2010-11-21	4
7	Vanhoenacker, Marino	08:29:18	IM Hawaii on 2010-10-09	6
8	Al-Sultan, Faris	08:31:27	IM Hawaii on 2010-10-09	10
9	Bockel, Dirk	08:33:29	IM Florida on 2010-11-06	4
10	Brown, Cameron	08:33:32	IM New Zealand on 2011-03-05	15

The top 3 athletes (Andreas, Macca and Crowie) stand a bit above the rest of the athletes. Between Andreas and Macca it is pretty even, but adding the results from IM Germany gave Andreas a little edge (he was just a few seconds slower than Macca in 2009, but beat him by more than 9 minutes in 2010). Statistically, Andreas is a little bit ahead, but the difference is so small that any new race could change things and I’d not really venture a guess if they actually ended up racing each other again.

After the Top 3, you have a group of very solid racers, each of which could win Hawaii without causing too much surprise. Eneko and Timo have raced quite a lot (and are the top athletes to look pretty solid for Hawaii) , Marino had to drop out of a few races lately, and Rasmus (also a lock-down for a Hawaii slot) may just have built enough experience to be in the running for a podium in Kona. Dirk Bockel is in  a similar point in his career.

Then we also have Faris Al Sultan (who is just a very solid racer, no big surprises on either side of the spectrum) and Cameron Brown (coming off another great win in New Zealand) – both of which “belong” in the Top 10, but are probably not in real contention for winning Kona.

Female Athletes

On the female side, here are my picks for the Top 10:

Rank	Name	Rating	Last Race	# Races	Total Rank
1	Wellington, Chrissie	08:57:24	IM South Africa on 2011-04-10	10	81
2	Carfrae, Mirinda	09:18:38	IM New Zealand on 2011-03-05	3	179
3	Van Vlerken, Yvonne	09:22:54	IM Hawaii on 2010-10-09	6	211
4	Keat, Rebekah	09:30:19	Challenge Roth on 2010-07-18	9	259
5	Steffen, Caroline	09:31:08	IM Australia on 2011-05-01	6	263
6	Thuerig, Karin	09:33:25	IM Hawaii on 2010-10-09	3	275
7	Morrison, Catriona	09:33:38	IM Texas on 2011-05-21	4	277
8	Wallenhorst, Sandra	09:34:38	IM Germany on 2010-07-04	5	282
9	McGlone, Samantha	09:34:45	IM Hawaii on 2010-10-09	5	283
10	Marsh, Amy	09:35:27	IM Brazil on 2011-05-29	4	285

No surprises on the first two spots: Chrissie and Mirinda are just heads above all the other girls.

The rest of the Top 10 is an interesting mix between athletes still improving (Caroline Steffen, Cat Morrison, Amy Marsh), established solid racers (Yvonne Van Vlerken, Sandra Wallenhorst, Sam McGlone) and some “wildcards” – Bek Keat with great results on fast courses such as Roth, but never quite on top of her form in Kona and Karin Thuerig who can’t decide if she wants to be a cyclist or a triathlete. A very interesting mix for sure, but it seems that the top 2 spots are just out of reach for anyone not names Chrissie or Rinnie.

Comparing Thorsten’s Tri Rating to WTC’s Kona Pro Rankings

There are a few differences between the Kona Pro Rankings by WTC (used to determine the Kona qualifiers) and Thorsten’s Tri Rating:

• TTR is time based, KPR is points based
• KPR is limited to just one year, TTR uses all results of an athletes in a weighted fashion (i.e. old results count, but not as much as a new race)
• KPR weights races (indeed, quite heavily so – with races such as Texas or Germany being six times more important than New Zealand or Australia), for TTR a fast time in New Zealand is as important as anywhere else (TTR tries to “normalize” results, so a fast time on a slow course results in the same adjusted time as on a fast course)
• KPR also uses points from 70.3 races, TTR only uses Ironman-distance races (even a few non-WTC results such as Challenge Wanaka and Challenge Roth)

Of course, this leads to different TOP 10 rankings. Here’s a look at some notable Top10 athletes from the KPR that are missing from the TTR Top 10:

• Men’s KPR leader Tim O’Donnell only has one result (so he’s not eligible for a Top10 ranking yet. His Texas result would put him right along Crowie.
• Raynard Tissink (KPR#3) and Luke Bell (KPR#5) are rated 15th and 53rd. Luke is “hurt” by his attempts of breaking through – his results are either 8:30ish or 9:30ish.
• Peter Vabrousek (KPR#10) is racing a million times. His results (and rating) of around 9 hours are good enough to collect a lot of points – but racing often in about the same time does not improve your rating.
• On the women’s side we see similar issues, but the differences are not that large. Most of the athletes that are in the KPR Top 10 but not in the TTR Top 10 are ranked between 11 and 25.

All in all, I’m quite confident that the fields that you’d get from TTR and those you will get using KPR will be very similar. There is however one requirement that WTC has put up for Kona qualification that might turn out to be very interesting (at least for the men): The requirement to have at least one IM outside of Kona. Currently, only 5 of my Top10 (and only 5 of the Top 10 Kona finishers from 2010) have fulfilled that requirement, and the Top3 athletes haven’t and will probably struggle a bit (Andreas Raelert is rumored to race Challenge Roth, Macca prefers to shoot for the Olympics, and Crowie is still MIA after being sick for Australia).