Ironman Cairns 2018 (June 10th) – Seedings

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2011	Chris McCormack (AUS)	08:15:56	Rebekah Keat (AUS)	09:26:31
2012	David Dellow (AUS)	08:15:04	Carrie Lester (AUS)	09:21:00
2013	Luke McKenzie (AUS)	08:17:43	Liz Blatchford (AUS)	09:19:51
2014	Cameron Brown (NZL)	08:20:15	Liz Blatchford (AUS)	09:16:58
2015	Luke McKenzie (AUS)	08:18:01	Liz Blatchford (AUS)	09:11:49
2016	Tim Van Berkel (AUS)	08:15:03	Jodie Cunnama (GBR)	09:06:18
2017	Josh Amberger (AUS)	08:02:17	Sarah Crowley (AUS)	08:58:14

Last Year’s TOP 3

Here’s the link to the full results and my analysis of IM Cairns 2017.

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Josh Amberger	AUS	00:47:15	04:17:29	02:53:26	08:02:17
2	Joe Gambles	AUS	00:50:02	04:25:19	02:44:30	08:04:03
3	Braden Currie	NZL	00:49:46	04:26:12	02:47:56	08:07:46

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Sarah Crowley	AUS	00:57:06	04:50:00	03:06:01	08:58:14
2	Sarah Piampiano	USA	01:05:38	04:52:58	03:02:49	09:08:20
3	Kristin Moeller	GER	01:05:22	05:00:50	03:03:29	09:14:08

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:02:17	Josh Amberger	2017-06-11
Swim	overall	00:43:48	Clayton Fettell	2011-06-05
Bike	overall	04:15:13	Cameron Wurf	2017-06-11
Run	overall	02:44:24	Tim Van Berkel	2013-06-01
Total	female	08:58:14	Sarah Crowley	2017-06-11
Swim	female	00:49:06	Jodie Cunnama	2016-06-12
Bike	female	04:50:00	Sarah Crowley	2017-06-11
Run	female	03:02:01	Linsey Corbin	2016-06-12

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Cairns is 05:10.

Race Adjustments for IM Cairns

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2011	06:26	01:41	03:54	01:36	16	06:26	01:41	03:54	01:36
2012	06:49	-00:44	08:11	-01:50	22	06:37	00:28	06:02	-00:07
2013	02:58	-01:34	08:26	-05:54	16	05:24	-00:12	06:50	-02:03
2014	04:15	-02:18	03:33	02:35	16 of 21	05:07	-00:44	06:01	-00:53
2015	06:14	01:44	04:18	00:00	16 of 19	05:20	-00:14	05:40	-00:43
2016	-02:45	-00:12	03:18	03:15	28 of 36	03:59	-00:14	05:17	-00:03
2017	12:14	-01:01	15:23	04:00	29 of 40	05:10	-00:21	06:43	00:32

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Cairns is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$, paying 10 deep.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 35% of a typical Kona field.

#	Bib	Name	Nat	Expected	Rating	ESwim	EBike	ET2	ERun	Consistency	Overall
1	4	Terenzo Bozzone	NZL	08:10:58	08:18:54	00:48:34	04:25:11	05:18:45	02:52:13	61% +27% -13% (16)	13
2	6	Tim Van Berkel	AUS	08:14:05	08:20:52	00:48:20	04:31:19	05:24:39	02:49:26	84% +9% -7% (24)	16
3	5	Timothy O’Donnell	USA	08:14:08	08:22:07	00:47:51	04:26:35	05:19:26	02:54:42	48% +31% -21% (16)	20
4	11	David Dellow	AUS	08:17:00	08:29:15	00:47:58	04:31:25	05:24:23	02:52:37	58% +1% -41% (19)	41
5	15	Mike Phillips *	NZL	08:17:15	08:27:21	00:50:01	04:27:44	05:22:45	02:54:30	66% +34% -0% (3)	33
6	3	Braden Currie	NZL	08:17:59	08:34:51	00:48:16	04:32:53	05:26:10	02:51:49	27% +18% -55% (5)	63
7	2	Luke McKenzie	AUS	08:20:08	08:28:06	00:48:33	04:26:20	05:19:54	03:00:14	61% +11% -27% (31)	36
8	10	Cameron Wurf	AUS	08:22:23	08:30:41	00:50:10	04:17:58	05:13:08	03:09:15	53% +36% -10% (10)	50
9	8	Kyle Buckingham	ZAF	08:23:17	08:28:16	00:50:00	04:34:08	05:29:08	02:54:09	71% +10% -19% (15)	37
10	19	Michael Fox	AUS	08:24:40	08:42:16	00:48:12	04:35:06	05:28:19	02:56:21	66% +9% -25% (7)	84
11	9	Eneko Llanos	ESP	08:26:04	08:29:59	00:49:18	04:29:00	05:23:18	03:02:46	87% +0% -13% (34)	45
12	7	Tim Reed	AUS	08:26:19	08:30:49	00:49:07	04:33:32	05:27:40	02:58:39	54% +19% -27% (7)	52
13	22	David Plese	SLO	08:27:48	08:30:01	00:53:30	04:35:01	05:33:30	02:54:18	79% +7% -13% (24)	46
14	14	Callum Millward	NZL	08:28:58	08:34:25	00:49:45	04:36:14	05:30:59	02:57:59	77% +0% -23% (10)	62
15	17	Denis Chevrot	FRA	08:30:17	08:39:15	00:47:52	04:38:29	05:31:22	02:58:55	65% +4% -32% (14)	78
16	28	Thiago Vinhal	BRA	08:32:14	08:45:36	00:49:15	04:42:28	05:36:43	02:55:31	47% +47% -6% (14)	92
17	12	Daniil Sapunov *	UKR	08:33:30	08:48:22	00:48:58	04:42:32	05:36:31	02:56:59	68% +7% -25% (10)	108
18	16	Clayton Fettell	AUS	08:36:53	08:42:17	00:46:14	04:32:18	05:23:31	03:13:22	60% +10% -30% (12)	85
19	27	Casey Munro	AUS	08:42:16	09:25:12	00:47:30	04:35:52	05:28:22	03:13:54	11% +0% -89% (8)	(225)
20	18	Balazs Csoke	HUN	08:59:51	09:18:39	00:48:31	04:53:50	05:47:21	03:12:30	30% +8% -63% (29)	205
21	24	Lachlan Kerin	AUS	09:08:21	09:41:56	00:53:13	04:50:29	05:48:43	03:19:38	7% +23% -70% (5)	(263)
22	21	Leigh Stabryla	AUS	09:08:59	09:27:39	00:50:03	05:11:47	06:06:50	03:02:09	37% +0% -63% (5)	232
23	29	Ryan Palazzi	AUS	09:24:22	09:58:53	00:50:48	04:49:21	05:45:09	03:39:13	26% +0% -74% (3)	(278)
24	26	Bryce McMaster	NZL	10:34:26	11:11:42	00:52:52	05:49:14	06:47:06	03:47:20	33% +0% -67% (2)	(300)
25	30	Aleksander Kochetkov *	LTU	10:49:11	11:11:58	01:09:44	05:37:00	06:51:44	03:57:27	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(300)
	1	Javier Gomez	ESP	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	20	Jason Hall	NZL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	23	Blake Kappler	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	25	David Mainwaring	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 26% of a typical Kona field.

Sarah Crowley is already training in Switzerland and will race IM Frankfurt to validate her Kona slot.

#	Bib	Name	Nat	Expected	Rating	ESwim	EBike	ET2	ERun	Consistency	Overall
1	32	Mirinda Carfrae	AUS	08:57:08	09:01:36	00:56:09	05:00:53	06:02:02	02:55:06	59% +12% -29% (15)	(2)
2	31	Sarah Crowley	AUS	09:05:00	09:17:13	00:55:31	04:56:03	05:56:34	03:08:26	35% +65% -0% (6)	9
3	40	Teresa Adam	NZL	09:12:51	09:32:15	00:50:49	05:04:05	05:59:54	03:12:57	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(36)
4	39	Beth McKenzie	USA	09:16:21	09:28:03	01:00:34	05:09:53	06:15:27	03:00:54	38% +50% -11% (13)	(32)
5	37	Anja Beranek	GER	09:18:33	09:23:56	00:52:35	04:56:31	05:54:06	03:24:27	68% +4% -27% (12)	23
6	33	Asa Lundstroem	SWE	09:21:44	09:27:02	01:01:51	05:01:08	06:07:59	03:13:45	98% +2% -0% (18)	29
7	34	Lauren Brandon	USA	09:32:02	09:36:33	00:48:19	05:03:33	05:56:52	03:35:10	46% +0% -54% (6)	41
8	36	Gurutze Frades Larralde	ESP	09:32:22	09:39:43	01:01:29	05:11:57	06:18:26	03:13:56	76% +14% -10% (11)	50
9	38	Sue Huse	CAN	09:35:00	09:55:10	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(79)
10	35	Melanie Burke	NZL	09:36:57	09:48:12	01:04:44	05:08:33	06:18:16	03:18:41	86% +8% -6% (12)	63
11	41	Jessica Mitchell	AUS	09:47:21	10:11:29	01:04:06	05:13:21	06:22:26	03:24:55	68% +32% -0% (6)	107
12	42	Alise Selsmark *	AUS	09:50:44	10:11:27	00:54:29	05:25:04	06:24:33	03:26:11	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(107)
	43	Amanda Wilson	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• Terenzo Bozzone: 41% (1-1)
• Tim Van Berkel: 17% (5-1)
• Timothy O’Donnell: 14% (6-1)
• Luke McKenzie: 8% (11-1)
• Mike Phillips: 6% (15-1)
• Braden Currie: 4% (22-1)
• David Dellow: 4% (23-1)

In addition to these established athletes, there is Javier Gomez who will race in his first Ironman-distance race who has also to be considered for the win. (I have tried to come up with a data-based guess for a possible Cairns finish time for him in my post “Trying to Predict Ironman Times from 70.3 Ratings“. The result was a range of times between 8:00 and 8:30.)

Female Race Participants

• Mirinda Carfrae: 40% (1-1)
• Sarah Crowley: 39% (2-1)
• Beth McKenzie: 13% (6-1)
• Asa Lundstroem: 4% (27-1)
• Anja Beranek: 2% (43-1)