Ironman France 2016 (June 5th) – Predictions

IMFranceLogo Update May 27th: Michael Raelert announced on his Facebook page that he suffers from an infection with the Epstein-Barr virus and won’t be able to race in France.

Update May 31st: Kristin Möller has said that France was just a backup for Brasil where she finished fifth and won’t be racing in Nice.

Update June 4th: After Pros signing in, a few expected DNSs have been confirmed.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Herve Faure (FRA) 08:49:06 Mariska Kramer-Postma (NED) 10:12:29
2006 Marcel Zamora (ESP) 08:33:56 Edith Niederfriniger (ITA) 09:56:32
2007 Marcel Zamora (ESP) 08:38:45 Alexandra Louison (FRA) 09:49:11
2008 Marcel Zamora (ESP) 08:34:03 Martina Dogana (ITA) 09:35:29
2009 Marcel Zamora (ESP) 08:30:06 Tine Deckers (BEL) 09:30:29
2010 Marcel Zamora (ESP) 08:25:28 Tine Deckers (BEL) 09:21:29
2011 Frederik Van Lierde (BEL) 08:28:30 Silvia Felt (GER) 09:34:31
2012 Frederik Van Lierde (BEL) 08:21:51 Tine Deckers (BEL) 09:16:05
2013 Frederik Van Lierde (BEL) 08:08:59 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 09:12:54
2014 Bart Aernouts (BEL) 08:33:22 Tine Deckers (BEL) 09:12:21
2015 Boris Stein (GER) 08:27:32 Caitlin Snow (USA) 09:24:50

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Boris Stein GER 00:56:58 04:41:18 02:44:20 08:27:32
2 Victor Del Corral ESP 00:58:11 04:44:40 02:42:04 08:30:00
3 Romain Guillaume FRA 00:50:46 04:39:01 03:00:01 08:34:44

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Caitlin Snow USA 00:57:43 05:21:59 02:58:26 09:24:50
2 Lisa Roberts USA 01:03:40 05:21:07 02:54:45 09:26:00
3 Emma Pooley GBR 01:06:40 05:16:34 03:12:35 09:43:48

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:08:59 Frederik Van Lierde 2013-06-23
Swim overall 00:44:18 Gilles Reboul 2006-06-24
Bike overall 04:33:29 Frederik Van Lierde 2013-06-23
Run overall 02:37:01 Bart Aernouts 2013-06-23
Total female 09:12:21 Tine Deckers 2014-06-29
Swim female 00:48:59 Edith Niederfriniger 2006-06-24
Bike female 05:05:22 Christel Robin 2009-06-28
Run female 02:52:26 Caitlin Snow 2014-06-29

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM France is 03:58.

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 08:54 06:08 -01:00 03:29 34 08:54 06:08 -01:00 03:29
2007 07:24 00:21 00:29 07:03 39 08:09 03:14 -00:15 05:16
2008 01:09 -00:39 -01:39 00:38 41 05:49 01:56 -00:43 03:43
2009 03:17 -01:44 00:41 05:34 36 05:11 01:01 -00:22 04:11
2010 10:00 -01:59 -01:27 05:38 32 06:09 00:25 -00:35 04:29
2011 03:18 -00:12 -02:38 02:47 29 05:40 00:19 -00:56 04:12
2012 00:46 00:10 -03:49 04:07 23 04:58 00:18 -01:20 04:11
2013 06:17 00:07 -02:08 09:47 20 05:08 00:16 -01:26 04:53
2014 -02:55 -01:50 -04:52 04:08 26 of 34 04:14 00:02 -01:49 04:48
2015 01:27 -01:36 -05:47 05:00 25 of 34 03:58 -00:08 -02:13 04:49

KPR points and Prize Money

IM France is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 75.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:11:44 08:20:27 00:47:33 04:29:40 02:49:32 60% +21% -19% (17) 5
2 4 James Cunnama ZAF 08:28:52 08:39:20 00:49:26 04:42:11 02:52:15 40% +14% -46% (21) 44
3 38 Stefan Schmid GER 08:28:55 08:37:19 00:52:29 04:38:48 02:52:39 44% +56% -0% (11) 37
4 2 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:29:12 08:35:18 00:55:36 04:43:45 02:44:51 63% +0% -37% (12) 30
5 3 Michael Raelert GER 08:34:57 08:47:45 00:47:47 04:46:16 02:55:55 11% +20% -69% (4) (63)
6 10 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 08:37:10 08:37:29 00:49:20 04:54:25 02:48:25 92% +8% -0% (12) 39
7 6 Andrej Vistica CRO 08:38:55 08:51:13 00:53:05 04:43:44 02:57:06 69% +0% -31% (9) 69
8 12 Herve Faure FRA 08:40:43 08:45:36 00:50:55 04:47:37 02:57:10 45% +0% -55% (8) (58)
9 11 Gwenael Ouilleres FRA 08:46:46 08:56:00 00:51:21 04:57:14 02:53:11 38% +62% -0% (2) 86
10 8 Bertrand Billard FRA 08:47:18 09:03:13 00:48:38 04:42:54 03:10:46 13% +23% -64% (6) 106
11 17 Christian Brader GER 08:48:23 08:54:06 00:56:50 04:53:11 02:53:22 82% +7% -12% (31) 77
12 14 Simon Billeau FRA 08:52:56 08:55:59 00:54:15 04:44:59 03:08:42 52% +0% -48% (16) 85
13 29 Carlos Lopez Diaz ESP 08:53:19 09:05:29 00:47:36 04:53:36 03:07:08 26% +13% -61% (6) 121
14 50 Antony Costes FRA 08:54:54 09:09:41 00:48:21 04:44:02 03:17:30 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (134)
15 16 Olivier Marceau SUI 08:58:22 09:08:47 00:51:21 04:56:02 03:05:59 91% +9% -0% (4) (130)
16 26 Cedric Lassonde FRA 09:03:31 09:11:20 00:55:31 04:54:15 03:08:45 74% +0% -26% (6) 140
17 13 Herve Banti MCO 09:05:51 09:22:19 00:51:37 04:51:35 03:17:38 34% +0% -66% (5) (165)
18 44 Rafael Wyss SUI 09:07:53 09:15:08 00:59:34 04:56:10 03:07:09 87% +13% -0% (16) 154
19 32 Wouter Monchy BEL 09:16:58 09:38:32 00:51:06 05:00:54 03:19:58 48% +52% -0% (2) (210)
20 47 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 09:20:01 09:31:50 00:53:28 05:06:17 03:15:15 23% +9% -68% (7) 192
21 40 Yu Shinozaki JPN 09:24:30 10:05:44 00:56:20 04:54:58 03:28:12 17% +28% -55% (9) 244
22 46 Frederic Garcia FRA 09:25:22 09:40:59 00:56:50 05:12:45 03:10:47 51% +0% -49% (2) (214)
23 15 Guillaume Jeannin FRA 09:28:56 09:44:40 00:51:05 05:01:49 03:31:03 36% +0% -64% (3) (217)
24 24 Ivan Jezko SVK 09:33:05 09:53:53 00:59:07 05:03:58 03:25:01 49% +16% -35% (8) 229
25 39 Matt Shanks USA 09:36:10 09:52:06 01:00:43 05:17:27 03:13:00 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (226)
26 19 Pierre-Yves Facomprez FRA 09:46:18 10:02:30 01:02:55 05:13:25 03:24:57 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (241)
27 28 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 09:51:56 10:13:02 01:01:05 05:24:43 03:21:09 49% +6% -45% (17) 249
28 43 Remmert Wielinga NED 10:00:43 10:43:37 01:12:04 05:05:57 03:37:42 9% +16% -75% (5) (258)
29 20 Christian Funk GER 10:57:58 11:16:33 01:24:14 05:49:22 03:39:23 38% +0% -62% (4) 265
30 22 German Garrote Borrull ESP 11:05:21 11:32:24 00:57:51 05:36:21 04:26:09 38% +62% -0% (2) (266)
31 34 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:40:06 12:16:25 01:12:22 05:52:40 04:30:04 32% +23% -45% (32) 267
5 Timothy Van Houtem BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
9 Albert Moreno ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
18 Santiago Abad de Agueda ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
21 Romain Garcin FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
23 Felix Haupt GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
25 Jerome Joussemet FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
27 Geert Lauryssen BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
30 Julien Marcq FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
31 Martin Charles FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
33 Jeremy Morel FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
35 Seppe Odeyn BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
36 Robin Pasteur FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
37 Kevin Rundstadler FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
42 Sven Van Luyck BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
45 Arnaud Guilloux FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
48 Alain Djouad-Guibert MOR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 51 Tine Deckers BEL 09:15:26 09:34:55 00:58:07 05:06:30 03:05:49 48% +11% -41% (17) 37
2 52 Leanda Cave GBR 09:16:14 09:21:19 00:51:02 05:10:38 03:09:34 71% +10% -19% (18) 16
3 68 Kristin Moeller GER 09:28:40 09:33:47 01:03:14 05:22:15 02:58:10 79% +19% -2% (16) 36
4 67 Natascha Badmann SUI 09:33:47 09:33:35 01:01:50 05:10:02 03:16:55 51% +0% -49% (16) 34
5 66 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 09:40:21 09:56:03 01:01:59 05:29:18 03:04:05 23% +77% -0% (5) 75
6 65 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:50:05 09:57:49 00:53:51 05:30:40 03:20:34 49% +0% -51% (9) 81
7 56 Tine Holst DEN 09:50:51 10:02:39 01:04:01 05:19:58 03:21:52 72% +28% -0% (11) 88
8 64 Erin Spitler USA 09:51:17 10:18:46 01:06:12 05:18:09 03:21:56 21% +41% -38% (6) 117
9 57 Tineke Van den Berg NED 09:51:25 10:08:47 01:05:22 05:17:16 03:23:48 45% +20% -36% (4) 101
10 58 Kate Comber GBR 09:55:34 10:12:02 00:55:18 05:32:18 03:22:59 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (106)
11 60 Corina Hengartner SUI 09:56:42 10:21:23 01:02:08 05:25:49 03:23:46 32% +38% -30% (3) (126)
12 54 Caroline Livesey GBR 09:57:26 10:02:35 01:00:36 05:26:31 03:25:19 79% +0% -21% (5) 86
13 59 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 09:59:51 10:11:01 00:59:29 05:33:54 03:21:28 100% +0% -0% (2) (102)
14 62 Stephanie Reymond FRA 10:02:52 10:19:54 01:05:02 05:27:16 03:25:33 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (123)
15 63 Maggie Rusch USA 10:07:47 10:25:00 01:01:40 05:30:39 03:30:28 43% +27% -30% (4) 141
16 55 Nicole Woysch GER 10:19:42 10:54:32 00:58:52 05:32:56 03:42:53 22% +3% -75% (21) (163)
61 Michaela Renner-Schneck GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
69 Emma Bilham SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
70 Petra Krejcova CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Frederik Van Lierde has had great results in France and has won the race three times. He’s the clear favorite based on the numbers, but his season so far hasn’t been going well: He finished 70.3 Puerto Rico in 10th place and crashed at Challenge Fuerteventura, breaking his collar-bone. He’s recovered enough to start in France but it’s unclear how good his form will be. He’s followed by a number of athletes looking for Kona points: Stefan Schmid (3.280, but also on the list for IM Brasil), James Cunnama (3.225) and Michael Raelert (3.220) are close to the projected cutoff and should be fine with Top6 finish. Victor Del Corral has been injured and had to withdraw from racing Kona and his recent 70.3 results have not yet shown the fantastic runner that he was in 2013.

  • Frederik Van Lierde: 53% (1-1)
  • Stefan Schmid: 17% (5-1)
  • James Cunnama: 13% (7-1)
  • Victor Del Corral: 9% (10-1)
  • Michael Raelert: 3% (30-1)

Female Race Participants

Tine Deckers is going for her fifth win in France, she’s had some great results at the start of the year by winning 70.3s in Puerto Rico and Pays d’Aix. She faces strong competition by Leanda Cave who wants to erase the memory of her DQ when she didn’t have her bib number during the bike ride. As Kristin Möller is racing IM Brasil she is unlikely to start in Nice, Gurutze Frades is on the Brasil list as well. If both won’t start, then the likeliest candidate for the third podium spot is Natascha Badmann who’d love to race Kona as a 49-year old Pro. She would need a second place finish to secure a slot.

  • Leanda Cave: 46% (1-1)
  • Tine Deckers: 31% (2-1)
  • Kristin Moeller: 14% (6-1)
  • Natascha Badmann: 4% (21-1)
  • Gurutze Frades Larralde: 3% (36-1)

Emma Bilham races her first Ironman race, as part of her prep she won 70.3 Barcelona with a dominating bike split.

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