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Click on the race name to get to the post with the latest details about the race. Read more about the types of posts and the data in them here.

Last changes:

  • March 9th: Added Results for Miami T100
  • March 7th: Added Seedings for Miami T100
  • March 2nd: Added Results for IM New Zealand
  • February 14th: Added Seedings for IM New Zealand
  • December 3rd: Added Results for IM Western Australia
  • November 19th: Added Results for IM Cozumel

Miami T100 – Analyzing Results

MiamiT100

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money
1 Magnus Ditlev DEN 00:24:28 (15) 01:41:45 (1) 01:00:55 (5) 03:09:08 -03:58 US$ 25,000
2 Sam Long USA 00:26:55 (18) 01:42:10 (2) 00:58:44 (2) 03:09:43 -02:40 US$ 16,000
3 Mathis Margirier FRA 00:23:44 (7) 01:42:30 (3) 01:01:59 (6) 03:10:08 -03:03 US$ 12,000
4 Youri Keulen NED 00:23:45 (9) 01:45:01 (7) 01:00:12 (4) 03:10:47 -05:03 US$ 9,000
5 Alistair Brownlee GBR 00:23:39 (4) 01:42:39 (5) 01:03:38 (9) 03:11:43 -01:48 US$ 8,000
6 Menno Koolhaas NED 00:23:41 (6) 01:47:08 (10) 00:59:29 (3) 03:11:55 -04:34 US$ 7,000
7 Jason West USA 00:23:46 (10) 01:49:56 (12) 00:57:54 (1) 03:13:15 00:39 US$ 6,500
8 Daniel Baekkegard DEN 00:23:44 (7) 01:44:47 (6) 01:03:15 (8) 03:13:51 01:03 US$ 6,000
9 Sam Laidlow FRA 00:23:36 (3) 01:42:30 (3) 01:06:39 (12) 03:14:36 -02:13 US$ 5,500
10 Aaron Royle AUS 00:23:33 (2) 01:47:42 (11) 01:03:47 (10) 03:16:54 03:31 US$ 5,000
11 Rudy von Berg USA 00:24:24 (13) 01:45:38 (9) 01:06:14 (11) 03:18:02 03:26 US$ 2,500
12 Rico Bogen GER 00:23:30 (1) 01:45:05 (8) 01:11:06 (13) 03:21:32 04:58 US$ 2,500
13 Leon Chevalier FRA 00:26:57 (19) 01:52:20 (15) 01:02:39 (7) 03:24:03 07:15 US$ 2,500
14 Ben Kanute USA 00:23:40 (5) 01:50:27 (13) 01:11:20 (14) 03:27:14 12:25 US$ 2,500
  Gregory Barnaby ITA 00:23:47 (11) 01:51:44 (14)   DNF    
  David McNamee GBR 00:23:49 (12) 01:55:31 (16)   DNF    
  Clement Mignon FRA 00:24:24 (13)     DNF    
  Pieter Heemeryck BEL 00:24:29 (16)     DNF    
  Bradley Weiss ZAF 00:25:15 (17)     DNF    
  Arthur Horseau FRA 00:26:59 (20)     DNF    

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money
1 India Lee GBR 00:25:52 (5) 01:53:09 (1) 01:06:05 (1) 03:27:12 -18:21 US$ 25,000
2 Lucy Charles-Barclay GBR 00:24:52 (1) 01:54:11 (2) 01:06:43 (3) 03:27:42 -06:03 US$ 16,000
3 Holly Lawrence GBR 00:25:50 (4) 01:56:03 (8) 01:06:41 (2) 03:30:36 -05:52 US$ 12,000
4 Paula Findlay CAN 00:26:01 (9) 01:55:52 (7) 01:07:39 (4) 03:31:39 -02:37 US$ 9,000
5 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:27:17 (12) 01:55:05 (5) 01:08:10 (5) 03:32:29 -02:58 US$ 8,000
6 Lucy Byram GBR 00:27:09 (10) 01:54:38 (3) 01:09:42 (8) 03:33:22 -11:36 US$ 7,000
7 Haley Chura USA 00:25:58 (8) 01:57:47 (9) 01:08:26 (7) 03:34:16 -13:25 US$ 6,500
8 Skye Moench USA 00:29:52 (17) 01:55:40 (6) 01:08:10 (5) 03:36:10 -02:39 US$ 6,000
9 Pamella Oliveira BRA 00:25:56 (7) 02:00:19 (12) 01:09:52 (9) 03:38:08 -09:24 US$ 5,500
10 Kaidi Kivioja EST 00:28:57 (15) 01:58:58 (10) 01:10:27 (10) 03:40:15 -06:26 US$ 5,000
11 Marta Sanchez ESP 00:25:54 (6) 02:01:26 (14) 01:11:49 (11) 03:41:11 -05:51 US$ 2,500
12 Diede Diederiks NED 00:29:52 (17) 01:58:59 (11) 01:13:02 (13) 03:43:51 -00:38 US$ 2,500
13 Jackie Hering USA 00:28:58 (16) 02:01:23 (13) 01:11:50 (12) 03:45:09 05:52 US$ 2,500
  Katrina Matthews GBR 00:27:12 (11) 01:54:42 (4)   DNF    
  Lucy Buckingham GBR 00:24:54 (2)     DNF    
  Sara Perez Sala ESP 00:25:49 (3)     DNF    
  Emma Pallant-Browne GBR 00:27:20 (13)     DNF    
  Tamara Jewett CAN 00:27:25 (14)     DNF    
  Giorgia Priarone ITA       DQ    

Miami T100 (March 9th) – Seedings

MiamiT100Prize Money

Miami T100 has a total prize purse of 250.000 US$, paying 20 deep.

Male Race Participants

# Bib Name Nat Expected ESwim EBike ET2 ERun
1 1 Magnus Ditlev DEN 03:19:49 00:26:34 01:47:24 02:16:58 01:02:51
2 8 Mathis Margirier FRA 03:20:13 00:25:55 01:47:46 02:16:41 01:03:32
3 2 Jason West USA 03:20:16 00:26:16 01:52:17 02:21:33 00:58:43
4 3 Sam Long USA 03:20:30 00:28:32 01:46:41 02:18:13 01:02:17
5 7 Daniel Baekkegard DEN 03:20:55 00:25:35 01:50:11 02:18:46 01:02:09
6 17 Alistair Brownlee GBR 03:20:59 00:25:32 01:48:51 02:17:23 01:03:36
7 6 Sam Laidlow FRA 03:21:20 00:25:37 01:48:21 02:16:58 01:04:22
8 16 Rico Bogen GER 03:21:21 00:25:30 01:49:08 02:17:38 01:03:43
9 14 Aaron Royle AUS 03:21:45 00:25:06 01:50:11 02:18:17 01:03:28
10 4 Pieter Heemeryck BEL 03:22:00 00:26:13 01:50:04 02:19:17 01:02:43
11 18 Youri Keulen NED 03:22:21 00:26:23 01:50:36 02:19:59 01:02:22
12 9 Rudy von Berg USA 03:23:23 00:26:15 01:50:32 02:19:47 01:03:36
13 19 Menno Koolhaas NED 03:23:44 00:25:26 01:53:43 02:22:09 01:01:35
14 12 Clement Mignon FRA 03:24:14 00:26:37 01:51:17 02:20:54 01:03:20
15 5 Ben Kanute USA 03:24:20 00:25:34 01:50:24 02:18:58 01:05:22
16 15 David McNamee GBR 03:24:20 00:26:09 01:52:43 02:21:52 01:02:28
17 11 Bradley Weiss ZAF 03:25:03 00:27:01 01:52:11 02:22:12 01:02:51
18 20 Gregory Barnaby ITA 03:25:10 00:26:09 01:52:52 02:22:01 01:03:09
19 10 Leon Chevalier FRA 03:25:45 00:28:43 01:51:11 02:22:54 01:02:51
20 21 Arthur Horseau FRA 03:28:57 00:28:20 01:52:40 02:24:00 01:04:57

Female Race Participants

# Bib Name Nat Expected ESwim EBike ET2 ERun
1 30 Lucy Charles-Barclay GBR 03:41:19 00:26:47 02:03:16 02:33:03 01:08:16
2 35 Katrina Matthews GBR 03:43:24 00:29:44 02:02:35 02:35:19 01:08:05
3 31 Paula Findlay CAN 03:43:35 00:28:50 02:01:50 02:33:40 01:09:55
4 34 Holly Lawrence GBR 03:44:10 00:27:56 02:03:04 02:34:00 01:10:10
5 33 Daniela Ryf SUI 03:44:13 00:28:40 02:01:17 02:32:57 01:11:16
6 32 Emma Pallant-Browne GBR 03:46:24 00:29:37 02:05:16 02:37:53 01:08:31
7 37 Tamara Jewett CAN 03:46:47 00:30:24 02:07:59 02:41:23 01:05:24
8 36 Skye Moench USA 03:47:53 00:30:28 02:03:20 02:36:48 01:11:05
9 40 Sara Perez Sala ESP 03:49:17 00:27:21 02:04:28 02:34:49 01:14:28
10 44 Jackie Hering USA 03:49:32 00:30:11 02:06:47 02:39:58 01:09:34
11 42 Lucy Buckingham GBR 03:50:28 00:26:47 02:04:22 02:34:09 01:16:19
12 38 India Lee GBR 03:50:37 00:28:26 02:05:18 02:36:44 01:13:53
13 39 Lucy Byram GBR 03:50:53 00:29:17 02:05:25 02:37:42 01:13:11
14 41 Haley Chura USA 03:52:37 00:27:40 02:09:47 02:40:27 01:12:10
15 45 Kaidi Kivioja EST 03:53:55 00:30:18 02:07:05 02:40:23 01:13:32
16 46 Diede Diederiks NED 03:53:57 00:33:05 02:05:48 02:41:53 01:12:04
17 48 Marta Sanchez ESP 03:53:57 00:28:17 02:07:49 02:39:06 01:14:51
18 49 Jodie Stimpson GBR 03:54:20 00:28:08 02:08:22 02:39:30 01:14:50
19 47 Pamella Oliveira BRA 03:54:29 00:27:59 02:07:28 02:38:27 01:16:02
20 43 Giorgia Priarone ITA 03:56:03 00:31:35 02:09:39 02:44:14 01:11:49

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Magnus Ditlev: 25% (3-1)
  • Jason West: 20% (4-1)
  • Mathis Margirier: 10% (9-1)
  • Sam Long: 5% (20-1)
  • Rico Bogen: 5% (20-1)
  • Pieter Heemeryck: 5% (20-1)
  • Sam Laidlow: 4% (24-1)
  • Youri Keulen: 3% (35-1)
  • Alistair Brownlee: 3% (35-1)
  • Ben Kanute: 3% (39-1)
  • Daniel Baekkegard: 3% (39-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Lucy Charles-Barclay: 25% (3-1)
  • Paula Findlay: 20% (4-1)
  • Daniela Ryf: 20% (4-1)
  • Katrina Matthews: 15% (6-1)
  • Holly Lawrence: 6% (15-1)
  • Tamara Jewett: 5% (19-1)

Ironman New Zealand 2024 – Analyzing Results

IMNZ 2024Course Conditions

Based on the numbers, conditions in Taupo have been normal – the adjustment of 5:46 was almost exactly the pre-race course rating of 6:19. This was a little bit different for the individual legs where the swim was four minutes slower than in the past, with a faster bike  leg making up most of the time “lost” in the swim.

This year’s performance highlight was Chelsea Sodaro running a sub-2:50 marathon, improving Kristin Liepold’s run course record from 2019 by more than five minutes. This also allowed Chelsea to set a new course record, improving the 2020 time by Teresa Adam by 22 seconds. 

Nice and Kona Qualifying

IM New Zealand offered three slots each, these will be offered to:

  • Els Visser, Regan Hollioake, and Amelia Watkinson for the women (Nice)
    and
  • Steven McKenna, Niek Heldoorn and Ben Hamilton for men (Kona).

In addition, Chelsea Sodaro validated her AQ slot. The list above assumes that Jocelyn McCauley will turn down her slot for Nice as she has posted before the race (and already done at IM Florida). 

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money
1 Steven McKenna AUS 00:52:09 (3) 04:20:40 (2) 02:43:31 (1) 08:01:13 -07:05 US$ 15,000
2 Niek Heldoorn NED 00:52:09 (3) 04:20:41 (3) 02:46:02 (2) 08:03:46 -02:16 US$ 9,000
3 Ben Hamilton NZL 00:54:26 (5) 04:21:34 (5) 02:47:00 (3) 08:08:13 -32:09 US$ 7,000
4 Mike Phillips NZL 00:54:31 (7) 04:15:53 (1) 02:55:41 (5) 08:10:58 00:23 US$ 5,000
5 Colin Szuch USA 00:58:02 (10) 04:25:51 (6) 02:49:13 (4) 08:18:40 n/a US$ 4,000
6 Matt Kerr NZL 00:55:50 (9) 04:31:38 (8) 02:56:23 (6) 08:30:04 -03:52 US$ 3,000
7 Scott Harpham NZL 01:00:57 (15) 04:28:13 (7) 02:57:48 (8) 08:33:32 -50:13 US$ 2,500
8 Simon Cochrane NZL 00:54:35 (8) 04:42:16 (9) 02:57:01 (7) 08:39:11 02:56 US$ 2,000
9 Mike Tong NZL 01:00:23 (14) 04:42:48 (10) 03:05:28 (10) 08:53:22 -19:07 US$ 1,500
10 Justin Metzler USA 00:52:07 (1) 04:21:27 (4) 03:44:30 (12) 09:02:49 34:42 US$ 1,000
11 Michael Boult AUS 00:52:07 (1) 05:09:34 (14) 03:05:10 (9) 09:11:50 n/a  
12 James Hayes USA 00:54:29 (6) 04:44:31 (12) 03:39:54 (11) 09:24:58 -03:13  
13 Jesper Nybo Riis DEN 01:09:37 (16) 04:44:02 (11) 04:38:16 (13) 10:38:30 1:54:52  
  Albert Askengren SWE 00:58:04 (11) 04:58:21 (13)   DNF    
  Levi Hauwert AUS 00:58:11 (12) 05:19:37 (15)   DNF    
  Mark Radziejewski AUS 01:00:13 (13)     DNF    

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money
1 Chelsea Sodaro USA 00:55:55 (4) 04:48:54 (3) 02:49:59 (1) 08:40:07 -01:51 US$ 15,000
2 Els Visser NED 01:01:11 (7) 04:47:46 (2) 03:03:29 (3) 08:57:34 -09:59 US$ 9,000
3 Jocelyn McCauley USA 00:55:51 (1) 04:46:04 (1) 03:11:10 (6) 08:58:23 -00:55 US$ 7,000
4 Regan Hollioake AUS 00:55:53 (2) 04:52:42 (4) 03:05:03 (4) 08:59:19 n/a US$ 5,000
5 Amelia Watkinson NZL 01:01:08 (6) 04:54:57 (5) 03:11:53 (7) 09:14:02 -02:39 US$ 4,000
6 Meredith Kessler USA 00:55:54 (3) 04:58:01 (7) 03:23:10 (10) 09:22:44 -00:23 US$ 3,000
7 Laura Siddall GBR 01:06:09 (10) 05:00:57 (8) 03:09:42 (5) 09:23:07 16:27 US$ 2,500
8 Kate Gillespie-Jones AUS 01:06:07 (9) 04:56:26 (6) 03:17:50 (9) 09:27:21 -11:22 US$ 2,000
9 Barbara Riveros CHI 00:55:58 (5) 05:11:46 (9) 03:14:19 (8) 09:27:38 27:17 US$ 1,500
10 Ai Ueda JPN 01:07:58 (11) 05:29:57 (11) 02:58:58 (2) 09:44:07 07:41 US$ 1,000
11 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 01:03:29 (8) 05:21:09 (10) 03:40:27 (12) 10:12:07 03:39  
12 Sarah Thomas AUS 01:12:05 (12) 05:39:15 (12) 03:25:17 (11) 10:23:09 16:59  

Ironman New Zealand 2024 (March 2nd) – Seedings

IMNZ 2024Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
1999 Timothy DeBoom (USA) 08:32:41 Melissa Spooner (CAN) 09:20:14
2000 Thomas Hellriegel (GER) 08:22:46 Lisa Bentley (CAN) 09:28:14
2001 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:24:28 Lisa Bentley (CAN) 09:36:17
2002 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:32:54 Karyn Ballance (NZL) 09:27:33
2003 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:22:05 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 09:17:56
2004 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:30:30 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 09:22:24
2005 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:20:15 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 09:30:14
2006 Ain-Alar Juhanson (EST) 03:31:05 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 04:10:32
2007 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:26:33 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 09:20:02
2008 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:24:49 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 09:16:00
2009 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:18:05 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:18:26
2010 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:21:52 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 09:14:35
2011 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:31:07 Samantha Warriner (NZL) 09:28:24
2012 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 03:55:03 Meredith Kessler (USA) 04:22:46
2013 Bevan Docherty (NZL) 08:15:35 Meredith Kessler (USA) 09:17:10
2014 Marko Albert (EST) 08:17:33 Meredith Kessler (USA) 09:08:46
2015 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:22:13 Meredith Kessler (USA) 09:05:45
2016 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:07:58 Meredith Kessler (USA) 08:56:08
2017 Braden Currie (NZL) 08:20:58 Jocelyn McCauley (USA) 09:09:47
2018 Terenzo Bozzone (NZL) 07:59:56 Laura Siddall (GBR) 09:00:44
2019 Mike Phillips (NZL) 08:05:08 Jocelyn McCauley (USA) 08:53:10
2020 Joe Skipper (GBR) 07:54:17 Teresa Adam (NZL) 08:40:29
2021 Braden Currie (NZL) 07:57:12 Hannah Berry (NZL) 09:01:49
2023 Mike Phillips (NZL) 07:56:04 Els Visser (NED) 09:05:43

Last Race’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Mike Phillips NZL 00:48:07 04:15:41 02:47:34 07:56:04
2 Braden Currie NZL 00:48:01 04:18:30 02:47:48 07:59:16
3 Jan van Berkel SUI 00:50:29 04:32:54 02:41:59 08:10:21

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Els Visser NED 00:57:01 04:50:20 03:13:20 09:05:43
2 Hannah Berry NZL 00:51:45 04:56:23 03:15:13 09:08:32
3 Rebecca Clarke NZL 00:50:34 04:57:33 03:16:37 09:10:10

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:54:17 Joe Skipper 2020-03-07
Swim overall 00:44:26 Dylan McNeice 2015-03-07
Bike overall 04:12:07 Andrew Starykowicz 2019-03-02
Run overall 02:40:04 Mike Phillips 2019-03-02
Total female 08:40:29 Teresa Adam 2020-03-07
Swim female 00:46:30 Monica Byrn 2005-05-03
Bike female 04:36:11 Teresa Adam 2020-03-07
Run female 02:55:34 Kristin Liepold 2019-03-02

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM New Zealand is 06:19.

Race Adjustments for IM New Zealand

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2007 13:54 01:31 05:44 05:53 24 13:54 02:18 05:44 05:53
2008 11:35 02:08 05:10 04:09 36 12:45 02:17 05:27 05:01
2009 10:19 00:33 06:19 03:15 38 11:56 01:47 05:44 04:26
2010 09:23 01:37 03:24 04:18 22 11:18 01:45 05:09 04:24
2011 -04:07 00:50 -01:15 -03:11 24 08:13 01:28 03:52 02:53
2013 00:00 01:14 01:05 -01:50 24 06:51 01:21 03:24 02:06
2014 05:40 01:27 01:16 02:55 31 of 41 06:41 01:22 03:06 02:13
2015 05:53 01:32 01:24 03:24 22 of 27 06:35 01:20 02:53 02:22
2016 06:05 02:21 04:25 00:15 37 of 49 06:31 01:21 03:03 02:08
2017 -04:07 -02:45 -01:21 00:13 27 of 40 05:27 00:55 02:37 01:56
2018 09:43 01:15 06:59 02:12 28 of 34 05:51 00:53 03:00 01:58
2019 04:16 00:33 00:12 04:12 25 of 28 05:43 00:48 02:46 02:09
2020 08:51 00:24 08:11 00:53 27 of 30 05:57 00:43 03:11 02:03
2021 11:05 01:10 08:31 01:53 11 06:19 00:43 03:34 02:02
2023 06:16 00:02 05:47 00:55 20 of 21 06:19 00:38 03:43 01:58

Kona slots and Prize Money

IM New Zealand has 3m+3f Pro Kona slot(s). It has a total prize purse of 100.000 US$, paying 10 deep.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 5% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency
1 17 Niek Heldoorn NED 07:58:07 08:11:12 00:46:53 04:20:24 05:12:17 02:45:50 48% +52% -0% (4)
2 2 Braden Currie NZL 07:58:59 08:04:46 00:46:37 04:23:05 05:14:43 02:44:16 83% +2% -15% (19)
3 1 Mike Phillips NZL 08:01:58 08:20:48 00:47:18 04:21:14 05:13:32 02:48:26 44% +24% -32% (15)
4 3 Steven McKenna AUS 08:08:17 08:18:23 00:46:45 04:28:26 05:20:10 02:48:07 79% +16% -5% (7)
5 4 Justin Metzler USA 08:25:09 08:33:55 00:48:30 04:34:06 05:27:36 02:57:33 31% +36% -33% (9)
6 6 Matt Kerr NZL 08:30:57 08:49:50 00:49:31 04:38:35 05:33:06 02:57:51 100% +0% -0% (2)
7 10 Simon Cochrane NZL 08:31:47 08:41:48 00:49:06 04:41:31 05:35:36 02:56:11 91% +5% -4% (29)
8 12 Ben Hamilton NZL 08:42:02 09:01:31 00:54:52 04:44:02 05:43:54 02:58:08 n/a (no IM Pro race)
9 19 Domenico Passuello ITA 08:43:33 09:06:19 00:55:45 04:37:15 05:38:00 03:05:33 24% +2% -74% (14)
10 20 Mark Radziejewski AUS 08:44:25 09:03:59 00:55:30 04:46:02 05:46:32 02:57:53 n/a (1 IM Pro race)
11 18 Jesper Nybo Riis DEN 08:44:53 09:01:06 00:59:14 04:42:57 05:47:11 02:57:42 69% +0% -31% (11)
12 7 Matt Lewis AUS 08:45:50 09:00:01 00:52:22 04:45:46 05:43:09 03:02:41 100% +0% -0% (2)
13 15 Levi Hauwert AUS 09:00:07 09:18:08 00:53:49 04:52:21 05:51:10 03:08:57 51% +16% -33% (6)
14 11 Guy Crawford NZL 09:03:52 09:23:15 00:48:26 04:39:37 05:33:02 03:30:50 60% +18% -22% (17)
15 8 Albert Askengren SWE 09:04:44 09:25:04 00:54:42 04:55:25 05:55:07 03:09:37 n/a (1 IM Pro race)
16 16 James Hayes USA 09:14:02 09:39:57 00:51:19 04:47:37 05:43:56 03:30:06 14% +26% -59% (5)
17 21 Mike Tong NZL 09:15:08 09:29:24 00:54:56 04:58:29 05:58:25 03:16:43 46% +54% -0% (2)
18 22 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:15:15 09:31:37 01:01:44 04:52:53 05:59:37 03:15:38 28% +12% -59% (31)
19 14 Scott Harpham NZL 09:25:23 09:46:29 00:58:15 04:43:37 05:46:52 03:38:31 52% +0% -48% (2)
  5 Colin Szuch USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race)
  9 Michael Boult AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race)

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 24% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency
1 32 Chelsea Sodaro (AQ) USA 08:40:04 08:47:31 00:52:37 04:51:10 05:48:47 02:51:17 51% +20% -29% (4)
2 34 Jocelyn McCauley USA 08:53:39 09:05:03 00:52:29 04:46:52 05:44:22 03:09:17 51% +17% -32% (25)
3 38 Barbara Riveros CHI 08:58:48 09:17:24 00:52:48 04:55:57 05:53:45 03:05:03 12% +88% -0% (2)
4 36 Laura Siddall GBR 09:04:49 09:12:41 00:57:28 04:53:16 05:55:44 03:09:05 78% +2% -20% (28)
5 31 Els Visser NED 09:06:20 09:13:18 00:56:49 04:53:14 05:55:03 03:11:17 90% +10% -0% (14)
6 33 Rebecca Clarke NZL 09:11:39 09:20:39 00:49:22 05:00:45 05:55:07 03:16:32 82% +15% -3% (10)
7 35 Amelia Watkinson NZL 09:16:56 09:28:13 00:53:48 05:01:36 06:00:24 03:16:32 100% +0% -0% (3)
8 37 Meredith Kessler USA 09:17:37 09:29:08 00:52:16 05:05:35 06:02:52 03:14:45 74% +5% -21% (39)
9 40 Ai Ueda JPN 09:36:05 09:48:30 00:55:55 05:28:51 06:29:46 03:06:19 79% +21% -0% (6)
10 43 Kate Gillespie-Jones AUS 09:38:33 09:50:38 01:02:01 05:04:17 06:11:17 03:27:16 100% +0% -0% (2)
11 45 Emily Donker AUS 09:41:30 10:18:24 00:57:06 05:20:35 06:22:41 03:18:49 37% +63% -0% (2)
12 41 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 10:03:42 10:15:00 00:57:42 05:23:39 06:26:21 03:37:21 25% +27% -48% (35)
13 39 Sarah Thomas AUS 10:07:20 10:12:50 01:05:31 05:33:35 06:44:06 03:23:14 89% +0% -11% (8)
14 47 Laura Wood NZL 10:23:54 10:48:48 00:53:49 05:30:51 06:29:40 03:54:14 n/a (1 IM Pro race)
  42 Fiona Gallagher NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race)
  44 Laura Dennis AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (3)
  46 Regan Hollioake AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Braden Currie: 39% (2-1)
  • Mike Phillips: 30% (2-1)
  • Niek Heldoorn: 23% (3-1)
  • Steven McKenna: 8% (12-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Jocelyn McCauley: 39% (2-1)
  • Chelsea Sodaro: 35% (2-1)
  • Els Visser: 15% (6-1)
  • Barbara Riveros: 5% (18-1)
  • Laura Siddall: 4% (24-1)

An Early Short List of 2024 Ironman World Championships Favorites

Even though the 2024 Ironman World Championships in Nice and Kona are still months away and we have a full season of racing in front of us, maybe now is a good time to start discussing the “statistical favorites” for the races. After all, the “short list” is typically built from previous winners and last year’s podium – this is what the first section on “Past Winners” looks at. Then we apply this historical data on the September and October races to see who should be in the mix – and who may be overlooked by this simple way of building a short list.

Of course we still have a lot of racing left before Kona 2024, but I’m still giving “baseline odds” based on 2023 racing and the historical data. Of course, these odds are likely to change before the fall Championships.

Data on Past Winners

When looking at the past winners of the Ironman World Championships, most of them have placed well in the previous year. To put it another way: The best indication for winning Kona is previous success in Kona. Here is the distribution of how the Kona winners after 1990 did before their wins:

Some more details on the categories:

  • Winner: In the 66 races since 1990 (33 men and 33 women), the winner has also won the year before (8 men, 12 women). Interestingly, the last title defenses were already five years ago in 2018 when Patrick Lange and Daniela Ryf retained their 2017 titles.
  • Second & Third: The other athletes on the previous year’s podium have won 24% (second place the year before) and 14% (third place). Both 2023 winners, Sam Laidlow and Lucy Charles-Barclay were second in October 2022.
  • Another common scenario is a previous champion (who maybe had to a bad race the year before or sometimes haven’t been racing at all), this has happened about 16% of the time. Recent examples are Jan Frodeno (who won 2019 after not racing in 2018 with an injury) and Daniela Ryf (who won May 2022 after finishing 13th in the previous race which was in 1999).
  • Winning on Debut is quite rare: It has happened about 8% since 1990 which corresponds to 5 instances: For the men, it was Luc Van Lierde (1996), Kristian Blummenfelt (May 2022) and Gustav Iden (October 2022), for the women we have Chrissie Wellington (2007) and Chelsea Sodaro (October 2022).
  • This leaves only a few “Other” occurrences, all of which have been quite a while ago: Greg Welch (won 1994 but didn’t race in 1993), Peter Reid (won 1998 and was fourth in 1997), Normann Stadler (won 2004 and was fourth in 2003), Heather Fuhr (won 1997 but was seventh the year before) and Natascha Badmann (won 1998 but DNF’d the year before).

A final note about the cutoff date: Going all the way back through Ironman history mainly increases the “Debut” category – not a big surprise since all but one of the first nine champions won on debut! (The exception is John Howard who won 1981 after finishing third the year before.) Before 1990, there have only been another four “Other” winners: Scott Molina (won 1988 after not racing in 1987), Mark Allen (won 1989 after fifth the year before), Joanne Ernst (winning 1985 after fourth the year before) and Erin Baker (winning 1987 after a DNF in 1986).

 

Nice 2024 – Women

The following graph shows “baseline odds” for the women’s racing in Nice on September 22nd:

2024 will be the first time that the women’s World Championships will be held on the tough bike course in Nice. As we’ve seen in the men’s 2023 race, this may put an extra emphasis on a strong bike leg.

Lucy Charles-Barclay – DNS

As the defending Champion, Lucy would likely be the pre-race favorite. However, she has announced that she will not be racing Nice this year, instead focusing on the T100 Tour. Unless that changes, I have to take her out of the Nice odds.

Anne Haug – 25%

Anne has always raced well in big races – she won the Ironman Championship title in 2019 and was on the podium in all her starts. Her run strength forces the other athletes to take some extra risks on the bike, hoping to create a gap that’s too big even for Anne to run down. This has worked in the three most recent Championship races when others were able to have a career day. But Anne only needs a slightly better day herself .. and maybe a small improvement on the bike. Will racing the T100 Series help her reach T2 after the tough bike course in Nice with a smaller gap to the leader, and will she still be able to then run through the field?

Laura Philipp – 15%

With her third place in Kona 2023, Laura has been able to join the statistical “short list” – in previous years she was almost there after two fourth places in 2019 and 2022. Can she be in the mix in the final hour of Nice 2024? She will likely need a better swim so she doesn’t have to play catch up in the first part of the bike as in Kona 2023. Racing the T100 Tour might help her build resilience in deep swim fields, and then the tough bike course in Nice should suit her strengths and give her a lot of tactical options. As she is also one of the strongest runners on the full distance, she might be the next German World Champion winning after placing third the year before. Can she join the group of Faris Al-Sultan, Sebastian Kienle, Jan Frodeno, Patrick Lange and Anne Haug?

Daniela Ryf – 20%

Daniela will be the athlete with the most World Championships on the Nice startline, and she’s also the athlete who won the race the last time it was held outside of Kona: She won St. George after putting seven minutes into Kat Matthews and twelve minutes and more into the rest of the field on the bike. Can she deliver a similarly dominating bike performance in Nice and then also run well? Sam has shown in the men’s 2023 race that a lead of six minutes will be hard to overcome. Can Daniela win her final Ironman World Championship and reinforce her position as one of the greatest Ironman athletes? 

Chelsea Sodaro – 15%

When Chelsea won the 2022 Kona title, she had a strong bike leg, starting the run about two minutes ahead of Anne and then posting the fastest marathon. In Kona 2023, she struggled on the bike but then also had a good marathon, the second-fastest of the day but still four minutes slower than Anne. How strong will Chelsea bike in the French mountains – and how strong can she run in September 2024? If she can put together three solid legs, she will be at least a strong podium contender.

Who’s Missing? 25%

There are a few more names who will be discussed as Nice favorites. Skye Moench might be one of the athletes who will try to be in the mix, but her tactics might be calibrated for a spot on the podium. Taylor Knibb has impressed in her Ironman debut in Kona 2023, but she’ll be focused on the Olympic Games and it’s not clear if she can validate her slot from winning 70.3 Worlds and then also build for Nice which probably suits her bike strength. Another athlete with a strong bike leg is Kat Matthews who has been on the podium in St. George in 2022. Can either of these become the first female Champion from the “Other” category since Natascha Badmann in 1998?

Kona 2024 – Men

Here are “baseline odds” for the October race in Kona after 2023 racing:

Let’s have a closer look at the athletes on the short list!

Sam Laidlow – 25%

The “easy pick” is always last year’s winner. Sam has delivered two great performances in the last two Ironman World Championship races – second in Kona 2022 and winner in Nice 2023. There is very little reason not to have him as a strong contender for 2024 as well. In both recent years, he’s had a fair mix of ups and downs, and he may arrive in Kona 2024 without having shown his “Championship form” in any of the upcoming races. Even then, he’ll have to be taken seriously as he’s always racing for the win and has shown that he can deliver. 

Patrick Lange – 15%

Without any doubt, Patrick has been the best long-course runner in recent years – he seems to be chasing course records and possibly also the first 2:30 marathon. While that is unlikely in the heat and humidity of Kona, he’ll be looking to reclaim the run course record which was taken over by Gustav Iden with a 2:36:14 as part of his 2022 win. In Nice 2023, Patrick ran seven minutes and more into anyone likely to start the run ahead of him, and nine minutes into Sam. If Patrick wants to win another big title, he can’t give up more time than that into T2, likely forcing him to bike a bit harder – and still run at a similar level. Are we going to see any indication of an improvement on the bike in his 2024 races before Kona?

Magnus Ditlev – 15%

Magnus has shown that he has the necessary tools to win big races – especially a very strong bike leg. His third place in Nice 2023 was his first Ironman World Championship podium, and often that is a necessary step on the way to the title. For the last two years, Magnus had his best performance in the summer, winning Challenge Roth with fast times, and maybe he was already a bit “battle-weary” by fall for the Championship races. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s quiet for the first two-thirds of the year, even if he will be tempted to race the T100 Tour and defend his Roth title. What season plan will he choose for 2024 and will that allow him to race his best in October? 

Kristian Blummenfelt – 15%

For the first half of the season, Kristian will be focused on July 30th – the Olympic Games in Paris and a chance to defend his Gold medal from Tokyo. After that, he plans to shift to Ironman racing and Kona. This leaves the question of how he intends to validate his slot. If he wants to avoid doing a full-distance Ironman, he’d have to finish two Ironman 70.3s before July, i.e. as part of his Paris prep. The alternative would be to do an Ironman after Paris – but then his only option before the validation period closes is Ironman Frankfurt on August 18th. Let’s see where he’s going to show up for validation! And how competitive can he be in Kona after almost two full seasons focused on shorter distances?

Gustav Iden – 15%

Gustav has had a crappy 2023 season, and he starts 2024 with an Achilles injury that keeps him from doing proper run training. Hopefully, he can quickly get back to full health, and hopefully he can then train and race with a clear head. Will he still try to qualify for Paris, or is he going to put his full focus on long-distance racing for 2024? And would that require a change in his training environment as his training buddy Kristian will be focused on Paris? Among all the contenders discussed so far, Gustav is likely to be the first athlete with an indication of where things may go for 2024 and if he can be back to racing competitively. If he can get things back to his 2021 and 2022 level, he’ll be a top contender for Kona 2024 – and he and Sam can argue about who will be the “real defending champion” for Kona 2024.

Who’s missing?

This early in the season, there are a lot of questions “the usual suspects” have to answer before Kona. In addition, 2024 racing could add another name or two to the “Kona short list”. Which changes in the early odds shown above are going to develop during the season?

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