Analyzing IM St. George 2011 results

Race Conditions

IM St. George is one of the slowest courses on the IM calendar. This year was not much different with an adjustment of  negative 0:27 and also with a number of good athletes (almost all “names” on the female side) dropping out of the race. However, this year’s results are a bit strange – the top of the field posted solid results, usually quite a bit faster than their expected time (look for the “green names” in the results further down). In contrast to that, the bottom half of the field was a lot slower than expected. I’m not sure why that would be the case – maybe the hot temperatures took a while to build up and then hit the “slower” racers much harder than the quick ones. Another theory is that those athletes accustomed to hot and dry weather were able to race well, but those not acclimatized ran into big problems and ended up on the bottom of the field. Hard to tell ..

As a result of this, I’m a bit torn on how to rate this race – and as long as I’m not sure of that, it’s tricky to figure out how to do the proper calculation of the adjustment. I’ll probably add in a max difference in a single result that forms the basis of the calculation in the next version of the methodology.

Male Results

Last year winner and pre-race favorite Michael Weiss had to drop out of the race after the bike, and there was a big battle between the other top rated athletes – with Mathias Hecht barely edging out Maik Twelsiek for the win. In another close fight, TJ Tollakson took the third podium spot – apparently after almost dropping out after feeling not-so-good after the first part of the run, but then running down Ben Hofman and Mike Aigroz.

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Mathias Hecht SWI 08:32:03 08:49:57
2 Maik Twelsiek GER 08:33:46 08:43:40
3 TJ Tollakson USA 08:40:20 09:01:51
4 Ben Hoffman USA 08:41:39 08:56:52
5 Mike Aigroz SWI 08:42:06 09:00:51
6 Paul Ambrose AUS 08:51:41 09:12:23
7 Alexandro Santamaria   09:04:38 n/a
8 Christian Brader GER 09:08:19 09:13:50
9 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:11:11 09:00:20
10 Bevan McKinnon NZL 09:12:37 09:02:02
11 Ernst Moser AUT 09:14:35 09:06:21
12 Joe McDaniel USA 09:26:27 08:59:42
13 Luke Way CAN 09:34:50 10:25:26
14 Bruno Clerbout BEL 09:37:12 09:13:13
15 Scott Defilippis USA 09:58:05 09:31:40
16 Heath Thurston USA 10:09:18 10:05:35
17 Markus Strini AUT 10:10:48 09:18:30

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions.

Female Results

Heather Wurtele managed to defend her title. She was the only one of the “big names” who completed the race The other podium contenders dropped out and she won by 36 minutes and was the only one in the women’s field to race quicker than her expected time.

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Heather Wurtele CAN 09:30:33 09:39:56
2 Jackie Arendt   10:06:36 n/a
3 Uli Bromme USA 10:10:48 09:59:12
4 Liis Toomingas   10:36:36 n/a
5 Tamara Kozulina UKR 10:43:37 09:48:38
6 Kelly Liljeblad USA 11:01:10 10:17:03
7 Amber Ferreira   11:36:03 n/a
8 Miranda Alldritt CAN 11:51:45 11:04:34

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions.

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