Ironman Wales 2016 (Sept 18th) – Predictions

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2011	Jeremy Jurkiewicz (FRA)	09:04:21	Kristin Moeller (GER)	10:01:19
2012	Sylvain Rota (FRA)	08:52:43	Regula Rohrbach (SUI)	09:45:09
2013	Scott Neyedli (GBR)	09:09:10	Lucy Gossage (GBR)	09:51:21
2014	Matt Trautman (ZAF)	09:07:28	Amy Forshaw (GBR)	10:57:26
2015	Jesse Thomas (USA)	08:57:33	Anja Beranek (GER)	09:56:31

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Jesse Thomas	USA	00:54:20	05:03:28	02:52:19	08:57:33
2	Andrej Vistica	CRO	00:57:00	05:05:46	02:52:18	09:03:09
3	Markus Thomschke	GER	00:57:01	04:57:14	03:12:54	09:14:52

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Anja Beranek	GER	00:54:26	05:30:15	03:23:16	09:56:31
2	Tineke Van den Berg	NED	01:09:13	05:45:44	03:22:42	10:28:22
3	Katja Konschak	GER	00:56:54	06:06:34	03:13:50	10:29:55

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:52:43	Sylvain Rota	2012-09-16
Swim	overall	00:44:07	Daniel Halksworth	2012-09-16
Swim	overall	00:44:07	Harry Wiltshire	2012-09-16
Bike	overall	04:57:14	Markus Thomschke	2015-09-13
Run	overall	02:48:01	Jeremy Jurkiewicz	2011-09-11
Total	female	09:45:09	Regula Rohrbach	2012-09-16
Swim	female	00:47:55	Anja Beranek	2011-09-11
Bike	female	05:30:15	Anja Beranek	2015-09-13
Run	female	03:02:28	Kristin Moeller	2011-09-11

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Wales is – 27:21.

Race Adjustments for IM Wales

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2011	-26:47	04:25	-25:00	01:30	22	-26:47	04:25	-25:00	01:30
2012	-01:01	04:46	-23:15	17:14	25	-13:54	04:36	-24:07	09:22
2013	-30:00	00:57	-28:24	-01:27	22	-19:16	03:23	-25:33	05:46
2014	-45:23	-03:51	-28:24	-05:49	14 of 16	-25:48	01:34	-26:16	02:52
2015	-33:32	-03:54	-27:05	04:01	22 of 26	-27:21	00:29	-26:26	03:06

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Wales is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 25.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	21	Alberto Casadei	ITA	09:03:27	08:43:16	00:47:48	05:16:08	02:54:31	30% +34% -36% (8)	68
2	27	Fraser Cartmell	GBR	09:07:01	08:58:43	00:48:28	05:07:44	03:05:49	33% +8% -59% (11)	122
3	23	Marc Duelsen	GER	09:08:56	08:42:26	00:52:55	05:11:32	02:59:28	78% +0% -22% (8)	67
4	26	Ritchie Nicholls	GBR	09:13:44	08:58:34	00:50:19	05:27:16	02:51:09	47% +0% -53% (4)	(121)
5	28	Erik-Simon Strijk	NED	09:18:43	08:53:46	00:52:59	05:17:30	03:03:13	96% +4% -0% (7)	101
6	25	Karl-Johan Danielsson	SWE	09:21:47	09:00:33	00:51:29	05:09:57	03:15:22	48% +25% -27% (10)	130
7	22	Nick Baldwin	SEY	09:22:19	09:02:31	00:52:26	05:15:48	03:09:06	60% +0% -40% (16)	135
8	42	Philip Graves	GBR	09:24:18	08:52:21	00:47:38	05:11:03	03:20:37	100% +0% -0% (5)	(98)
9	36	Swen Sundberg	GER	09:25:02	08:59:02	00:53:05	05:18:12	03:08:46	55% +1% -44% (17)	(123)
10	24	Mike Schifferle	SUI	09:27:28	09:03:07	00:59:48	05:17:53	03:04:47	89% +8% -3% (60)	137
11	47	Daniel Niederreiter	AUT	09:27:51	09:08:47	00:51:36	05:23:49	03:07:26	47% +0% -53% (13)	(160)
12	46	Karol Dzalaj	SVK	09:29:39	09:13:24	00:53:49	05:18:27	03:12:24	70% +11% -18% (13)	(178)
13	32	Cedric Lassonde	FRA	09:33:48	09:08:16	00:55:10	05:22:54	03:10:45	80% +0% -20% (7)	158
14	33	Graeme Stewart	GBR	09:37:58	09:17:51	00:54:16	05:28:21	03:10:21	41% +7% -52% (13)	188
15	45	Herve Banti	MCO	09:41:19	09:26:06	00:51:58	05:21:04	03:23:17	22% +0% -78% (6)	(211)
16	31	Felipe De Oliveira Manente	BRA	09:45:49	09:37:20	00:53:07	05:35:16	03:12:27	18% +7% -75% (8)	238
17	30	Oliver Simon	GBR	09:47:33	09:38:53	00:48:27	05:24:35	03:29:31	55% +0% -45% (12)	241
18	35	David Jilek	CZE	10:02:26	09:39:13	00:58:14	05:34:05	03:25:07	64% +21% -15% (7)	242
19	34	Eneko Elosegui	ESP	10:07:10	09:41:45	00:59:04	05:31:09	03:31:57	62% +12% -25% (16)	249
20	38	Rafael Espinar Puig	ESP	10:17:22	09:48:59	01:05:52	05:55:31	03:10:59	68% +0% -32% (6)	259
21	39	Gilian Oriet	SUI	10:25:10	10:13:57	00:57:48	05:41:55	03:40:27	17% +8% -75% (12)	282
22	29	Robbie Wade	IRL	10:35:29	10:23:11	00:58:44	05:44:17	03:47:28	39% +0% -61% (2)	(288)
23	37	David Krupicka	CZE	11:25:31	10:59:26	01:05:05	06:00:39	04:14:48	100% +0% -0% (2)	(298)
	40	Brennan Townshend	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	41	Kevin Rundstadler	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	0% +0% -100% (3)	(n/a)
	43	Hannes Vandermoere	BEL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	44	Dominic Rohan-Gates	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	0% +0% -100% (2)	(n/a)
	48	Matthias Epping	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	2	Diana Riesler	GER	09:58:17	09:31:45	00:57:52	05:35:03	03:20:21	46% +14% -40% (18)	31
2	11	Darbi Roberts	USA	10:14:13	09:58:31	00:52:45	05:53:01	03:23:27	37% +0% -63% (5)	85
3	7	Jeanne Collonge	FRA	10:19:14	10:09:20	00:57:59	05:48:34	03:27:40	37% +16% -47% (9)	(103)
4	6	Lucy Charles	GBR	10:19:38	10:01:38	00:47:15	05:58:25	03:28:59	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(91)
5	3	Katharina Grohmann	GER	10:27:40	10:03:46	01:10:59	05:54:48	03:16:53	100% +0% -0% (12)	94
6	8	Leslie DiMichele Miller	USA	10:29:09	10:00:27	00:59:07	06:03:35	03:21:27	100% +0% -0% (3)	89
7	10	Kate Comber	GBR	10:30:39	10:06:14	00:53:57	06:02:32	03:29:11	100% +0% -0% (2)	(98)
8	4	Caroline Livesey	GBR	10:36:08	10:07:05	01:01:26	05:57:57	03:31:45	68% +0% -32% (7)	98
9	9	Kristin Lie	NOR	10:41:33	10:14:01	01:12:18	05:53:43	03:30:32	82% +0% -18% (13)	(110)
	5	Nikki Bartlett	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• Alberto Casadei: 37% (2-1)
• Marc Duelsen: 27% (3-1)
• Fraser Cartmell: 18% (5-1)
• Ritchie Nicholls: 6% (16-1)
• Erik-Simon Strijk: 5% (17-1)
• Mike Schifferle: 2% (42-1)
• Nick Baldwin: 2% (60-1)

Female Race Participants

• Diana Riesler: 48% (1-1)
• Jeanne Collonge: 13% (7-1)
• Katharina Grohmann: 13% (7-1)
• Darbi Roberts: 10% (9-1)
• Leslie DiMichele Miller: 8% (11-1)
• Lucy Charles: 4% (25-1)
• Kate Comber: 2% (46-1)
• Caroline Livesey: 2% (62-1)