70.3 World Championship in Mooloolaba (Sept 4th) – Predictions

703ChLogoThis is my first post with predictions for a 70.3 race. Some data might still be a bit wonky, but I think it gives a good view of the field’s strengths and weaknesses and how close the race is probably going to be – or how far ahead of the field Daniela’s results have been.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2006 Craig Alexander (AUS) 03:45:37 Samantha McGlone (CAN) 04:12:58
2007 Andy Potts (USA) 03:42:33 Mirinda Carfrae (AUS) 04:07:25
2008 Terenzo Bozzone (NZL) 03:40:10 Joanna Zeiger (USA) 04:02:48
2009 Michael Raelert (GER) 03:34:04 Julie Dibens (GBR) 03:59:33
2010 Michael Raelert (GER) 03:41:19 Jodie Swallow (GBR) 04:06:28
2011 Craig Alexander (AUS) 03:54:48 Melissa Hauschildt (AUS) 04:20:55
2012 Sebastian Kienle (GER) 03:54:35 Leanda Cave (GBR) 04:28:05
2013 Sebastian Kienle (GER) 03:54:02 Melissa Hauschildt (AUS) 04:20:07
2014 Javier Gomez (ESP) 03:41:30 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 04:09:19
2015 Jan Frodeno (GER) 03:51:19 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 04:11:34

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jan Frodeno GER 00:22:14 02:09:04 01:16:32 03:51:19
2 Sebastian Kienle GER 00:24:04 02:09:54 01:15:22 03:52:48
3 Javier Gomez ESP 00:22:12 02:13:38 01:15:35 03:55:05

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:23:46 02:21:10 01:22:51 04:11:34
2 Heather Wurtele CAN 00:26:33 02:27:39 01:24:56 04:23:07
3 Anja Beranek GER 00:24:32 02:24:18 01:31:17 04:24:10

KPR points and Prize Money

70.3 World Championship is a P-3000 race. It has a total prize purse of 250.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 3 Lionel Sanders CAN 03:51:49 03:53:16 00:26:10 02:05:57 01:14:42 1
2 2 Sebastian Kienle GER 03:52:39 03:56:05 00:24:02 02:07:07 01:16:30 2
3 9 Tim Don GBR 03:52:39 03:59:27 00:22:49 02:09:56 01:14:54 16
4 17 Joe Gambles AUS 03:54:29 03:56:07 00:22:58 02:08:59 01:17:31 3
5 32 Tyler Butterfield BMU 03:54:47 03:56:58 00:23:44 02:08:56 01:17:07 7
6 6 Tim Reed AUS 03:54:48 03:56:39 00:22:56 02:09:38 01:17:13 5
7 8 Andreas Dreitz GER 03:55:36 03:59:48 00:23:46 02:07:30 01:19:20 20
8 21 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 03:55:48 03:58:24 00:22:40 02:09:12 01:18:55 11
9 15 Sam Appleton AUS 03:55:58 03:59:39 00:22:42 02:09:12 01:19:03 18
10 20 Brent McMahon CAN 03:56:50 03:59:47 00:22:18 02:10:09 01:19:22 19
11 11 Trevor Wurtele CAN 03:57:18 04:00:19 00:24:26 02:09:52 01:18:00 25
12 10 Craig Alexander AUS 03:57:40 03:58:35 00:23:01 02:11:39 01:18:00 13
13 4 Ruedi Wild SUI 03:57:48 04:05:05 00:22:52 02:12:08 01:17:48 60
14 18 Josh Amberger AUS 03:58:27 04:03:25 00:21:50 02:07:57 01:23:40 38
15 23 Jan Van Berkel SUI 03:59:03 04:05:06 00:22:57 02:12:08 01:18:58 62
16 41 Mark Bowstead NZL 04:00:08 04:03:33 00:23:26 02:10:54 01:20:49 44
17 16 Taylor Reid CAN 04:00:23 04:04:31 00:24:17 02:11:15 01:19:51 56
18 24 Maurice Clavel GER 04:01:36 04:03:51 00:22:53 02:14:22 01:19:21 47
19 36 Igor Amorelli BRA 04:01:46 04:08:09 00:22:51 02:09:54 01:24:01 98
20 12 Jake Montgomery AUS 04:01:49 04:03:29 00:22:31 02:11:32 01:22:46 41
21 42 Brad Kahlefeldt AUS 04:02:08 04:03:22 00:22:40 02:15:40 01:18:48 37
22 27 Mike Phillips NZL 04:02:52 04:04:18 00:23:06 02:12:10 01:22:36 54
23 38 Nick Kastelein AUS 04:03:30 04:10:25 00:22:51 02:16:23 01:19:16 123
24 30 Braden Currie NZL 04:04:06 04:06:52 00:23:09 02:15:41 01:20:16 85
25 43 Graham O’Grady NZL 04:04:15 04:06:05 00:22:40 02:12:03 01:24:32 75
26 35 Luke McKenzie AUS 04:04:27 04:07:54 00:23:53 02:11:24 01:24:10 96
27 29 Matthew Pellow AUS 04:04:59 04:09:26 00:23:25 02:13:34 01:23:00 112
28 5 Antony Costes FRA 04:05:01 04:09:01 00:22:52 02:13:07 01:24:02 110
29 46 Tim George AUS 04:05:27 04:12:01 00:23:54 02:16:26 01:20:07 (144)
30 26 Mitchell Robins AUS 04:06:43 04:11:23 00:23:53 02:15:51 01:21:58 136
31 50 Daniel Fontana ITA 04:07:28 04:06:30 00:22:47 02:15:49 01:23:52 81
32 28 David Mainwaring AUS 04:07:44 04:09:47 00:24:18 02:17:07 01:21:19 118
33 25 Casey Munro AUS 04:08:29 04:10:29 00:22:42 02:15:38 01:25:08 124
34 45 Adam Gordon AUS 04:09:07 04:14:19 00:26:27 02:14:44 01:22:55 171
35 40 Peter Kerr AUS 04:09:26 04:14:28 00:22:21 02:21:16 01:20:49 174
36 39 David Breuer GER 04:10:13 04:12:53 00:23:26 02:17:29 01:24:18 152
37 31 Paulo Roberto Maciel da Silva BRA 04:10:19 04:12:15 00:22:58 02:18:49 01:23:32 147
38 37 Guy Crawford NZL 04:10:55 04:13:43 00:23:45 02:16:01 01:26:10 162
39 22 Christian Hoerper GER 04:11:26 04:15:27 00:25:05 02:20:58 01:20:23 185
40 53 Paul Schuster GER 04:11:42 04:13:21 00:23:30 02:20:15 01:22:57 156
41 34 Milosz Sowinski POL 04:12:04 04:16:08 00:24:32 02:18:03 01:24:29 195
42 49 Mitchell Kibby AUS 04:13:28 04:15:00 00:23:51 02:19:47 01:24:51 179
43 55 Mauro Baertsch SUI 04:13:31 04:18:37 00:25:06 02:20:12 01:23:12 230
44 44 Nick Baldwin SEY 04:14:27 04:17:13 00:25:03 02:18:34 01:25:50 207
45 33 Rodrigo Acevedo COL 04:15:06 04:20:20 00:26:12 02:18:05 01:25:49 256
46 52 Roberto Rivera CHI 04:15:42 04:18:16 00:24:23 02:19:08 01:27:10 224
47 48 Brad Williams USA 04:17:14 04:20:02 00:27:07 02:16:45 01:28:22 251
48 54 Matt Franklin NZL 04:21:07 04:25:00 00:22:53 02:16:04 01:37:09 299
49 47 Michael Davidson ZAF 04:22:48 04:28:53 00:26:31 02:27:44 01:23:34 331

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 101 Daniela Ryf SUI 04:12:35 04:18:10 00:23:56 02:20:22 01:23:17 1
2 102 Heather Wurtele CAN 04:17:33 04:18:50 00:26:10 02:22:15 01:24:08 2
3 110 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 04:19:04 04:23:38 00:26:58 02:22:48 01:24:17 8
4 107 Holly Lawrence GBR 04:19:13 04:22:24 00:24:10 02:21:50 01:28:13 4
5 105 Caroline Steffen SUI 04:22:06 04:22:07 00:24:56 02:26:39 01:25:31 3
6 104 Magali Tisseyre CAN 04:22:07 04:26:29 00:25:19 02:24:32 01:27:17 11
7 106 Annabel Luxford AUS 04:22:54 04:27:15 00:24:25 02:25:32 01:27:57 14
8 115 Alicia Kaye USA 04:24:33 04:29:56 00:24:18 02:24:37 01:30:38 22
9 124 Ellie Salthouse AUS 04:24:55 04:26:44 00:24:44 02:27:09 01:28:02 12
10 112 Radka Vodickova CZE 04:25:13 04:30:05 00:24:11 02:29:26 01:26:36 24
11 108 Lauren Barnett USA 04:26:13 04:32:01 00:27:10 02:27:33 01:26:31 32
12 127 Laura Philipp GER 04:29:14 04:31:51 00:27:22 02:29:30 01:27:21 30
13 111 Leanda Cave GBR 04:29:53 04:32:10 00:24:42 02:30:26 01:29:45 35
14 119 Linsey Corbin USA 04:30:30 04:35:17 00:27:10 02:29:09 01:29:11 48
15 120 Laura Siddall GBR 04:32:04 04:38:41 00:28:15 02:30:01 01:28:48 63
16 118 Sarah Crowley AUS 04:33:27 04:39:13 00:27:11 02:32:27 01:28:49 66
17 125 Lauren Brandon USA 04:33:55 04:38:26 00:23:07 02:26:05 01:39:44 61
18 128 Kirsty Jahn CAN 04:34:15 04:39:45 00:28:52 02:34:12 01:26:11 71
19 117 Ricarda Lisk GER 04:34:28 04:44:07 00:25:22 02:35:50 01:28:16 111
20 114 Alexandra Tondeur BEL 04:34:45 04:39:17 00:28:07 02:33:54 01:27:44 67
21 133 Kate Pedley AUS 04:35:25 04:37:41 00:29:22 02:33:51 01:27:13 56
22 109 Natascha Schmitt GER 04:35:43 04:40:29 00:26:28 02:34:26 01:29:49 74
23 123 Andrea Forrest AUS 04:36:03 04:38:53 00:26:07 02:34:19 01:30:36 64
24 116 Heather Lendway USA 04:36:19 04:40:53 00:23:58 02:30:06 01:37:15 79
25 130 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 04:37:08 04:38:16 00:28:33 02:31:02 01:32:33 60
26 129 Katey Gibb AUS 04:37:24 04:40:46 00:26:21 02:34:09 01:31:53 77
27 121 Astrid Stienen GER 04:38:22 04:39:18 00:28:53 02:34:43 01:29:45 68
28 126 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 04:41:06 04:42:24 00:26:40 02:35:33 01:33:53 98
29 134 Jessica Mitchell AUS 04:42:16 04:44:32 00:29:41 02:33:04 01:34:31 114
30 122 Nikki Bartlett GBR 04:43:16 04:45:52 00:29:13 02:36:04 01:32:59 127
31 132 Caroline Livesey GBR 04:45:14 04:49:44 00:28:24 02:36:06 01:35:44 160
32 139 Kym Coogan AUS 04:46:16 04:48:30 00:27:10 02:38:47 01:35:19 144
33 137 Renee Baker AUS 04:50:03 04:52:03 00:27:16 02:35:59 01:41:48 179
34 138 Erika Simon ARG 04:56:55 04:58:55 00:30:01 02:38:48 01:43:05 208

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Lionel Sanders: 33% (2-1)
  • Sebastian Kienle: 13% (7-1)
  • Joe Gambles: 13% (7-1)
  • Josh Amberger: 9% (10-1)
  • Tyler Butterfield: 7% (13-1)
  • Tim Don: 6% (15-1)
  • Sam Appleton: 5% (18-1)
  • Tim Reed: 4% (23-1)
  • Terenzo Bozzone: 3% (28-1)
  • Andreas Dreitz: 3% (37-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Daniela Ryf: 49% (1-1)
  • Holly Lawrence: 24% (3-1)
  • Heather Wurtele: 14% (6-1)
  • Melissa Hauschildt: 6% (16-1)
  • Caroline Steffen: 3% (37-1)
  • Magali Tisseyre: 3% (38-1)

How the Race Might Unfold

Based on the previous results and “raw data” and putting aside race dynamics, here’s a look at how the races might unfold. The graphs below show at various points in the race who’s probably in the lead and how far back the other athletes are going to be. Of course this is just speculation and “the real race” still has to be run!

Male Race

As usual the men’s race is going to be very close and hard to predict. Nonetheless, here is my best “guess” at how the men’s race could develop:

703Men

The main points of the race:

  • Josh Amberger is likely to lead after the swim, and he may well hold on that lead on the bike. However, the other athletes will try to close the gap as soon as possible on the bike, so he may get some company. For a Top 10 result Josh would need a much stronger run than he’s been able to show in the past, but if he’s injury free maybe he can show his potential.
  • Sebastian Kienle is likely to loose around two minutes in the swim, and he will work hard to make up the difference on the bike. At minimum he should be near the front of the chase group (maybe teaming up with countryman and bike powerhouse Andy Dreitz?) and take the lead in the early part of the run. It’s going to be very interesting to see if an improved run allows him to hold on the leading position in the second half of the run.
  • Lionel Sanders has been winning almost every 70.3 race this season. Even after losing more than four minutes in the swim, he should make up enough time on the bike for his fantastic run to win the race. In St. George he quickly closed the gap to Sebastian Kienle and they started the run together – Lionel put more than two minutes into Sebi to win there. Here even a gap of a minute or so to Sebi in T2 should still allow him to catch Sebi and win the race. 
  • There will be a large group of podium contenders pretty close together in T2. Tim Don has proven to be the fastest runner of them in the last couple of years – based on the data he’ll be in a statistical dead heat with Sebastian Kienle.  But with a group of strong athletes such as Joe Gambles, Ty Butterfield, Tim Reed, Andy Dreitz, Terenzo Bozzone, Sam Appleton, Brent McMahon, Trevor Wurtele or Craig Alexander, there is going to be at least one athlete that will have a cracker day and is going to change things up. Interesting racing to look forward to for sure!

Female Race

Based on the data, the female race is probably going to be less exciting than the male race .. but a few athletes will not agree with this and will do their best to make Daniela work hard for the win!

703Women

Some key points:

  • Lauren Brandon is likely to lead the race into T1, and she’ll stay close to the front up on the bike. She’ll be loosing more ground once the run starts.
  • Daniela Ryf will be in a bigger group about one minute back in T1. She’s the best bike rider in the field and will start to build a solid lead into T2 (close to two minutes) that she should be able to extend on the run. With a “statistical gap” of almost five minutes to the next athlete something extraordinary would have to happen for her not to defend her title.
  • For a long time Holly Lawrence should be the athlete closest to Daniela. She’ll likely swim a similar time and not loose to much time on the bike. For a podium finish she’ll need a strong run.
  • Heather Wurtele and Mel Hauschildt will likely be further behind after the swim – three minutes to Lauren Brandon for  Heather and four minutes for Mel. They have similar strong bike and run capabilities and should finish on the podium, but they are not likely to make up time to Daniela.
  • Behind the Top 4, there is a large group of athletes with very similar capabilities. On a good day, Caroline Steffen, Magali Tisseyre, Annabel Luxford, Alicia Kaye, Ellie Malthouse or Radka Vodickova are able to contend for a podium spot.
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