Ironman Western Australia 2016 (Dec 4th) – Predictions

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	Mitchell Anderson (AUS)	08:27:35	Charlotte Paul (AUS)	09:47:27
2006	Jason Shortis (AUS)	08:03:55	Lisbeth Kristensen (DEN)	09:10:00
2007	Patrick Vernay (NCL)	08:05:58	Charlotte Paul (AUS)	09:00:54
2008	Tim Van Berkel (AUS)	08:07:06	Gina Crawford (NZL)	08:59:24
2009	Patrick Vernay (NCL)	08:13:59	Gina Crawford (NZL)	09:16:52
2010	Courtney Ogden (AUS)	08:14:01	Kate Bevilaqua (AUS)	09:19:44
2011	Timo Bracht (GER)	08:12:39	Michelle Bremer (NZL)	09:25:38
2012	Jimmy Johnsen (DEN)	08:29:06	Britta Martin (NZL)	09:13:00
2013	Jeremy Jurkiewicz (FRA)	08:08:16	Elizabeth Lyles (USA)	08:59:44
2014	Denis Chevrot (FRA)	08:05:58	Britta Martin (NZL)	08:56:34
2015	Luke McKenzie (AUS)	07:55:58	Sarah Piampiano (USA)	09:03:47

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Luke McKenzie	AUS	00:50:31	04:08:12	02:52:29	07:55:58
2	Denis Chevrot	FRA	00:48:45	04:28:58	02:54:49	08:16:24
3	Per Bittner	GER	00:50:56	04:27:33	02:56:37	08:19:15

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Sarah Piampiano	USA	01:06:49	04:50:46	03:01:18	09:03:47
2	Mareen Hufe	GER	01:06:52	04:47:38	03:10:18	09:09:16
3	Yvonne Van Vlerken	NED	01:02:53	04:49:09	03:15:50	09:12:07

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	07:55:58	Luke McKenzie	2015-12-06
Swim	overall	00:44:42	Pete Jacobs	2007-12-01
Bike	overall	04:08:12	Luke McKenzie	2015-12-06
Run	overall	02:43:48	Robert Thomas	2007-12-01
Total	female	08:56:34	Britta Martin	2014-12-07
Swim	female	00:48:25	Tereza Macel	2007-12-01
Bike	female	04:44:16	Mareen Hufe	2014-12-07
Run	female	02:58:17	Beth Gerdes	2014-12-07

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Western Australia is 13:37.

Race Adjustments for IM Western Australia

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2005	01:54	-02:58	01:52	-02:32	27	01:54	-02:58	01:52	-02:32
2006	16:01	00:31	15:04	02:55	31	08:57	-01:14	08:28	00:12
2007	23:57	00:43	13:40	04:29	47	13:57	-00:35	10:12	01:37
2008	15:30	-00:07	15:24	00:34	39	14:20	-00:28	11:30	01:22
2009	14:55	01:15	14:35	-04:00	25	14:27	-00:07	12:07	00:17
2010	09:38	00:10	10:09	02:05	24	13:39	-00:04	11:48	00:35
2011	03:58	-00:22	09:00	02:33	27	12:16	-00:07	11:24	00:52
2012	13:06	-01:22	08:48	02:36	26	12:22	-00:16	11:04	01:05
2013	19:46	00:06	15:19	06:32	22 of 30	13:12	-00:14	11:33	01:41
2014	16:05	00:57	17:24	04:16	32 of 48	13:29	-00:07	12:08	01:57
2015	14:58	-02:36	14:05	06:34	15 of 22	13:37	-00:20	12:18	02:22

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Western Australia is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	2	Melissa Hauschildt	AUS	09:04:53	09:29:07	00:57:00	04:56:07	03:06:46	44% +17% -38% (4)	21
2	1	Sarah Piampiano	USA	09:07:36	09:29:36	01:03:02	04:53:07	03:06:28	58% +33% -9% (16)	23
3	4	Asa Lundstroem	SWE	09:12:21	09:29:28	01:00:18	04:56:37	03:10:27	89% +11% -0% (15)	22
4	3	Mareen Hufe	GER	09:13:06	09:34:51	01:00:59	04:50:12	03:16:55	86% +5% -9% (22)	35
5	6	Laura Siddall	GBR	09:14:33	09:37:36	00:58:10	04:53:55	03:17:28	46% +44% -10% (8)	39
6	9	Elisabeth Gruber	AUT	09:20:05	09:36:46	01:02:46	05:03:40	03:08:39	100% +0% -0% (7)	36
7	5	Lisa Roberts	USA	09:20:32	09:32:49	01:04:35	05:06:29	03:04:28	80% +3% -18% (17)	30
8	11	Vanessa Murray	NZL	09:41:20	10:02:21	00:55:25	05:16:07	03:24:48	100% +0% -0% (2)	(77)
9	8	Kym Coogan	AUS	09:43:43	10:07:34	00:57:09	05:08:13	03:33:21	61% +0% -39% (4)	86
10	7	Rahel Bellinga	NED	10:08:07	10:31:32	01:05:26	05:07:01	03:50:41	46% +30% -25% (6)	127
11	14	Emi Sakai	JPN	10:11:47	10:34:10	01:07:23	05:19:05	03:40:19	46% +4% -50% (10)	128
12	10	Tracy Morrison	AUS	10:14:51	10:37:22	01:02:48	05:33:59	03:33:04	100% +0% -0% (2)	(132)
	12	Lauren Parker	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	0% +0% -100% (2)	(n/a)
	15	Alise Selsmark	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	16	Georgia Stott	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	22	Andy Potts	USA	08:11:34	08:22:32	00:47:30	04:25:53	02:53:12	100% +0% -0% (15)	8
2	39	Nick Kastelein	AUS	08:15:02	08:38:03	00:48:13	04:22:52	02:58:57	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(51)
3	20	Denis Chevrot	FRA	08:16:31	08:35:24	00:46:46	04:30:08	02:54:37	58% +8% -35% (10)	38
4	24	Jeff Symonds	CAN	08:19:48	08:30:38	00:51:26	04:37:59	02:45:24	72% +13% -15% (8)	27
5	25	Clayton Fettell	AUS	08:20:09	08:44:53	00:45:55	04:22:30	03:06:45	10% +24% -66% (8)	74
6	21	Terenzo Bozzone	NZL	08:23:35	08:38:21	00:48:38	04:31:26	02:58:31	54% +1% -45% (11)	52
7	47	Courtney Ogden	AUS	08:25:51	08:48:47	00:50:40	04:33:06	02:57:05	53% +2% -45% (20)	(88)
8	26	Michael Fox	AUS	08:26:05	08:49:04	00:47:26	04:33:24	03:00:15	35% +65% -0% (2)	(89)
9	23	Jens Petersen-Bach	DEN	08:26:33	08:47:09	00:50:40	04:37:08	02:53:45	58% +0% -42% (16)	83
10	31	Alberto Casadei	ITA	08:27:53	08:47:20	00:48:19	04:39:09	02:55:25	24% +27% -49% (9)	85
11	56	Jan Van Berkel	SUI	08:29:19	08:50:39	00:49:22	04:28:57	03:06:00	49% +16% -35% (13)	94
12	46	Ritchie Nicholls	GBR	08:32:01	08:49:51	00:51:35	04:44:32	02:50:54	48% +0% -52% (6)	91
13	27	Konstantin Bachor	GER	08:32:21	08:46:29	00:50:36	04:26:57	03:09:48	34% +6% -59% (11)	81
14	29	Matt Burton	AUS	08:35:24	09:15:10	00:54:12	04:28:35	03:07:38	21% +0% -79% (6)	(172)
15	37	Esben Hovgaard	DEN	08:37:12	08:55:55	00:53:44	04:34:18	03:04:11	54% +18% -28% (10)	110
16	51	Jonathan Shearon	USA	08:37:52	09:00:05	00:53:55	04:32:21	03:06:36	54% +9% -38% (15)	126
17	57	Thiago Vinhal	BRA	08:40:49	09:00:42	00:50:01	04:47:07	02:58:41	72% +18% -10% (12)	131
18	28	Simon Billeau	FRA	08:42:30	09:08:55	00:53:52	04:30:12	03:13:26	36% +0% -64% (18)	155
19	36	Patrick Evoe	USA	08:46:18	08:56:44	00:56:00	04:35:40	03:09:38	91% +3% -6% (24)	113
20	35	Karol Dzalaj	SVK	08:46:26	09:13:24	00:53:51	04:35:58	03:11:38	70% +11% -18% (13)	(167)
21	49	Carl Read	NZL	08:47:14	09:05:19	00:53:05	04:49:36	02:59:32	56% +14% -31% (9)	(147)
22	41	Luke Martin	AUS	08:47:33	09:07:59	00:52:50	04:44:04	03:05:39	71% +0% -29% (4)	(151)
23	55	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	08:49:07	09:04:10	00:56:32	04:41:51	03:05:44	66% +1% -33% (95)	145
24	54	Graeme Stewart	GBR	08:49:43	09:13:37	00:54:24	04:41:46	03:08:33	33% +25% -42% (14)	168
25	52	Pavel Simko	SVK	08:51:06	09:24:30	00:52:17	04:34:25	03:19:24	47% +0% -53% (2)	(196)
26	42	Levi Maxwell	AUS	08:56:09	09:21:04	00:54:06	04:48:08	03:08:55	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(187)
27	50	Till Schramm	GER	09:01:00	09:24:15	00:56:06	04:43:02	03:16:52	5% +54% -41% (7)	194
28	38	Darren Jenkins	AUS	09:03:56	09:29:17	01:05:53	04:49:15	03:03:49	42% +0% -58% (10)	208
29	48	Matthew Pellow	AUS	09:06:37	09:32:01	00:47:05	04:41:53	03:32:39	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(211)
30	40	Michael Louys	BEL	09:09:45	09:40:34	01:03:37	04:45:24	03:15:44	52% +8% -41% (11)	229
31	53	Leigh Stabryla	AUS	09:09:54	09:35:27	00:52:28	05:08:57	03:03:29	51% +0% -49% (2)	(219)
32	30	Allister Caird	AUS	09:19:17	09:48:03	00:56:36	04:46:23	03:31:18	31% +0% -69% (3)	(245)
33	34	Vincent Depuiset	FRA	09:31:43	09:55:40	01:08:32	04:59:27	03:18:45	57% +20% -23% (11)	255
34	45	Marek Nemcik	SVK	11:28:24	12:01:54	01:12:38	05:41:26	04:29:21	30% +25% -45% (39)	284
	32	Giles Clayton	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	33	Derek Cross	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	43	Bryce McMaster	NZL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Female Race Participants

• Sarah Piampiano: 38% (2-1)
• Melissa Hauschildt: 33% (2-1)
• Asa Lundstroem: 15% (6-1)
• Mareen Hufe: 8% (11-1)
• Laura Siddall: 5% (19-1)

Male Race Participants

• Andy Potts: 69% (1-1)
• Denis Chevrot: 10% (9-1)
• Jeff Symonds: 10% (9-1)
• Jan Van Berkel: 5% (19-1)
• Clayton Fettell: 3% (36-1)