Ironman Hawaii 2015 (October 10th) – Predictions

For more about Kona check out my free “Kona Rating Report” – 150+ pages with tons of information about the Pro race!

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Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:14:17 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:09:30
2006 Normann Stadler (GER) 08:11:56 Michellie Jones (AUS) 09:18:31
2007 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:15:34 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 09:08:45
2008 Craig Alexander (AUS) 08:17:45 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 09:06:23
2009 Craig Alexander (AUS) 08:20:21 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:54:02
2010 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:10:37 Mirinda Carfrae (AUS) 08:58:36
2011 Craig Alexander (AUS) 08:03:56 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:55:08
2012 Pete Jacobs (AUS) 08:18:37 Leanda Cave (GBR) 09:15:54
2013 Frederik Van Lierde (BEL) 08:12:29 Mirinda Carfrae (AUS) 08:52:14
2014 Sebastian Kienle (GER) 08:14:18 Mirinda Carfrae (AUS) 09:00:55

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Sebastian Kienle GER 00:54:38 04:20:46 02:54:36 08:14:18
2 Ben Hoffman USA 00:51:20 04:32:20 02:51:25 08:19:23
3 Jan Frodeno GER 00:50:56 04:37:19 02:47:46 08:20:32

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 01:00:14 05:05:48 02:50:26 09:00:55
2 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:56:55 04:54:33 03:07:00 09:02:57
3 Rachel Joyce GBR 00:56:47 04:56:49 03:06:27 09:04:23

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:03:56 Craig Alexander 2011-10-15
Swim overall 00:46:41 Lars Jorgensen 1998-10-03
Bike overall 04:18:23 Normann Stadler 2006-10-21
Run overall 02:40:04 Mark Allen 1989-10-11
Total female 08:52:14 Mirinda Carfrae 2013-10-12
Swim female 00:48:43 Jodi Jackson 1999-10-16
Bike female 04:44:19 Karin Thuerig 2011-10-15
Run female 02:50:26 Mirinda Carfrae 2014-10-11

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Hawaii is a P-8000 race. It has a total prize purse of 650.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 2 Jan Frodeno GER 08:13:40 08:08:18 00:50:07 04:29:00 02:49:33 1
2 1 Sebastian Kienle GER 08:16:52 08:08:50 00:54:16 04:21:53 02:55:43 2
3 3 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:18:09 08:15:48 00:51:09 04:28:02 02:53:58 4
4 14 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 08:19:04 08:19:10 00:52:45 04:25:03 02:56:16 5
5 18 Brent McMahon CAN 08:19:26 08:20:26 00:50:53 04:33:11 02:50:23 (7)
6 35 Andreas Raelert GER 08:21:18 08:20:03 00:52:42 04:32:15 02:51:20 6
7 6 Nils Frommhold GER 08:22:14 08:15:11 00:51:24 04:28:50 02:57:00 3
8 34 Andi Boecherer GER 08:23:26 08:30:03 00:50:39 04:26:24 03:01:22 18
9 5 Andy Potts USA 08:24:53 08:24:37 00:50:10 04:36:45 02:52:58 11
10 42 Jordan Rapp USA 08:27:19 08:25:35 00:55:43 04:28:27 02:58:09 16
11 20 Bas Diederen NED 08:27:27 08:23:30 00:51:32 04:35:06 02:55:49 9
12 24 Ivan Rana ESP 08:27:43 08:24:54 00:51:32 04:41:43 02:49:28 13
13 30 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 08:28:09 08:25:34 00:51:12 04:38:34 02:53:24 15
14 27 Michael Weiss AUT 08:28:47 08:30:23 00:58:19 04:27:54 02:57:35 20
15 10 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:29:18 08:25:26 00:55:34 04:34:48 02:53:56 14
16 28 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:29:26 08:23:47 00:51:51 04:33:08 02:59:27 10
17 8 Bart Aernouts BEL 08:29:30 08:24:43 00:55:59 04:37:54 02:50:37 12
18 21 Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:29:33 08:31:54 00:50:48 04:36:11 02:57:34 25
19 4 Ben Hoffman USA 08:29:52 08:32:50 00:51:47 04:35:20 02:57:46 28
20 7 Tim Van Berkel AUS 08:30:56 08:31:26 00:52:21 04:40:12 02:53:23 24
21 32 Brad Kahlefeldt AUS 08:31:52 08:37:12 00:49:53 04:45:15 02:51:44 (39)
22 43 Christian Kramer GER 08:32:20 08:32:39 00:51:34 04:38:40 02:57:05 27
23 36 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:33:13 08:37:19 00:52:29 04:31:54 03:03:51 40
24 29 Tyler Butterfield BMU 08:33:17 08:31:10 00:52:31 04:34:34 03:01:12 23
25 23 Cameron Brown NZL 08:34:07 08:30:17 00:54:51 04:40:23 02:53:53 19
26 16 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:34:09 08:36:07 00:54:34 04:37:00 02:57:36 38
27 19 Matt Trautman ZAF 08:34:53 08:30:45 00:54:43 04:39:09 02:56:00 21
28 50 Maik Twelsiek GER 08:35:22 08:38:14 00:53:43 04:27:49 03:08:51 43
29 15 Jeff Symonds CAN 08:35:39 08:39:21 00:54:57 04:45:27 02:50:15 48
30 22 Romain Guillaume FRA 08:37:48 08:43:23 00:51:36 04:35:57 03:05:15 61
31 47 Viktor Zyemtsev USA 08:38:10 08:35:16 00:54:49 04:43:30 02:54:51 36
32 40 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:38:22 08:34:44 00:51:01 04:38:59 03:03:23 34
33 46 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 08:38:40 08:34:45 00:51:27 04:41:53 03:00:20 35
34 12 Matt Hanson USA 08:38:55 08:42:12 00:58:23 04:47:02 02:48:30 56
35 33 David McNamee GBR 08:39:18 08:39:30 00:52:02 04:45:00 02:57:16 (49)
36 31 Callum Millward NZL 08:40:04 08:40:26 00:52:20 04:44:25 02:58:19 (54)
37 37 Boris Stein GER 08:40:48 08:34:09 01:00:43 04:38:05 02:57:00 32
38 48 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:41:34 08:33:13 00:53:10 04:40:19 03:03:05 30
39 57 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 08:42:07 08:38:59 00:51:11 04:48:22 02:57:34 46
40 56 Matt Chrabot USA 08:42:39 08:38:27 00:50:47 04:44:03 03:02:48 44
41 41 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:43:17 08:43:53 00:51:28 04:47:40 02:59:10 66
42 58 Justin Daerr USA 08:43:56 08:42:49 00:56:43 04:43:41 02:58:32 59
43 45 Pedro Gomes POR 08:44:13 08:42:19 00:54:50 04:44:18 03:00:06 57
44 52 Fraser Cartmell GBR 08:44:30 08:44:22 00:52:19 04:39:31 03:07:40 67
45 49 Jan Van Berkel SUI 08:44:33 08:48:03 00:52:13 04:39:10 03:08:09 84
46 26 Joe Skipper GBR 08:45:04 08:43:23 00:58:47 04:40:42 03:00:35 61
47 25 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:45:06 08:48:56 00:53:50 04:44:17 03:01:59 85
48 54 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 08:45:46 08:42:51 00:53:09 04:53:26 02:54:11 60
49 17 Tim Don GBR 08:46:53 08:52:21 00:51:43 04:53:09 02:57:01 (97)
50 53 Daniel Bretscher USA 08:47:04 08:47:10 00:56:21 04:47:08 02:58:34 (80)
51 55 Luke Bell AUS 08:48:11 08:53:55 00:51:12 04:41:39 03:10:20 106
52 9 Lionel Sanders CAN 08:49:36 08:51:24 01:00:46 04:36:23 03:07:27 (96)
53 39 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 08:49:50 08:47:53 00:56:24 04:51:38 02:56:48 83
54 38 Dylan McNeice NZL 08:50:20 08:51:12 00:49:35 04:51:33 03:04:12 95
55 44 Paul Ambrose AUS 08:51:33 08:44:27 00:53:39 04:42:53 03:10:00 68

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 101 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 09:03:59 08:57:08 00:59:03 05:05:00 02:54:57 1
2 105 Rachel Joyce GBR 09:07:22 09:07:58 00:55:27 04:59:17 03:07:38 3
3 102 Daniela Ryf SUI 09:08:15 09:03:14 00:56:26 04:56:39 03:10:09 2
4 104 Caroline Steffen SUI 09:13:04 09:11:03 00:56:07 05:00:03 03:11:54 4
5 103 Jodie Swallow GBR 09:15:50 09:14:13 00:52:58 05:03:07 03:14:45 5
6 109 Meredith Kessler USA 09:17:45 09:20:23 00:53:50 05:02:51 03:16:04 14
7 119 Eva Wutti AUT 09:19:14 09:16:23 01:01:18 05:03:36 03:09:21 8
8 115 Liz Blatchford AUS 09:20:28 09:17:07 00:55:07 05:09:55 03:10:26 10
9 106 Julia Gajer GER 09:20:33 09:15:15 00:58:08 05:09:20 03:08:06 7
10 110 Leanda Cave GBR 09:21:20 09:21:41 00:54:41 05:06:29 03:15:09 15
11 107 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:21:45 09:17:03 00:54:47 05:02:36 03:19:23 9
12 112 Angela Naeth CAN 09:22:52 09:26:31 01:02:54 04:59:52 03:15:05 21
13 111 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 09:23:11 09:32:28 00:59:54 05:06:06 03:12:11 (31)
14 108 Gina Crawford NZL 09:24:58 09:23:49 00:55:48 05:12:36 03:11:34 18
15 117 Lucy Gossage GBR 09:25:35 09:18:15 01:02:49 05:07:00 03:10:46 11
16 122 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:25:48 09:23:14 00:55:41 05:06:09 03:18:58 16
17 114 Elizabeth Lyles USA 09:26:39 09:28:00 01:00:49 05:12:52 03:07:59 22
18 118 Camilla Pedersen DEN 09:29:07 09:24:46 00:55:42 05:08:08 03:20:17 20
19 121 Susie Cheetham GBR 09:30:02 09:30:41 01:01:25 05:13:18 03:10:18 (28)
20 140 Caitlin Snow USA 09:30:20 09:32:40 00:59:44 05:20:00 03:05:36 31
21 120 Diana Riesler GER 09:30:54 09:32:41 01:02:27 05:02:37 03:20:50 32
22 131 Kelly Williamson USA 09:31:36 09:29:00 00:57:15 05:27:15 03:02:07 23
23 136 Tine Deckers BEL 09:31:38 09:29:01 01:03:09 05:05:49 03:17:40 24
24 125 Heather Jackson USA 09:32:25 09:34:28 01:03:14 05:06:06 03:18:05 38
25 116 Heather Wurtele CAN 09:33:09 09:30:01 00:59:04 05:07:32 03:21:32 25
26 130 Annabel Luxford AUS 09:33:50 09:39:48 00:56:25 05:02:53 03:29:32 (46)
27 126 Britta Martin NZL 09:34:14 09:30:53 01:03:41 05:13:34 03:12:00 28
28 124 Beth Gerdes USA 09:34:41 09:42:34 01:05:42 05:18:29 03:05:31 50
29 123 Amanda Stevens USA 09:35:11 09:33:26 00:54:28 05:12:19 03:23:24 35
30 141 Sofie Goos BEL 09:35:29 09:35:53 01:00:56 05:11:14 03:18:20 40
31 139 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:37:34 09:43:05 01:06:13 05:10:39 03:15:41 52
32 128 Mareen Hufe GER 09:37:35 09:36:01 01:04:26 05:05:06 03:23:03 41
33 127 Ruth Brennan Morrey USA 09:37:58 09:38:19 01:10:01 05:17:22 03:05:34 (46)
34 137 Asa Lundstroem SWE 09:38:18 09:34:18 01:05:20 05:09:58 03:18:01 37
35 129 Haley Chura USA 09:38:20 09:37:19 00:53:04 05:18:09 03:22:08 44
36 132 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:41:42 09:55:09 00:56:51 05:11:43 03:28:08 79
37 133 Astrid Stienen GER 09:41:59 09:40:27 01:03:47 05:09:29 03:23:43 48
38 113 Ariane Monticeli BRA 09:44:24 09:49:02 01:07:20 05:22:42 03:09:23 62
39 142 Laurel Wassner USA 09:50:30 09:48:21 00:58:46 05:29:16 03:17:29 61
40 134 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 09:51:34 09:50:56 01:06:49 05:19:53 03:19:52 69
41 138 Shiao-yu Li TWN 10:05:50 10:02:37 01:13:44 05:29:24 03:17:41 95

For more about Kona check out my free “Kona Rating Report” – 150+ pages with tons of information about the Pro race!

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