Kona Odds

Last updated: End of 2016

After Kona 2016 and the first qualifiers for the 2017 season, speculation about the chances for Kona 2017 is already starting. Can Jan Frodeno be the first male winner to three-peat since the times of “Mark & Dave”? Will Daniela have another dominating win and win for the third time in a row?

Male Race Participants

Using my models, I currently calculate the following probabilities for a Kona win:

  • Jan Frodeno: 61% (1-1)
  • Sebastian Kienle: 18% (5-1)
  • Lionel Sanders: 4% (23-1)
  • Terenzo Bozzone: 3% (31-1)
  • Brent McMahon: 3% (31-1)
  • Patrick Lange: 3% (31-1)

After his great results in the 2016 season, Frodo is the clear favorite to win in 2016. A winning chance of 61% percent means that it’s more likely for him to defend his title than not. He is followed by Sebastian Kienle who will be working hard to put more pressure in Frodo in October. These two are clearly in front of the rest, who all have less than 5% winning chances, but the 2017 races will change their odds. My US friends will look for a US athlete in the top picks – however the US athlete with the best statistical winning chances is Ben Hoffman at roughly 1%.

Female Race Participants

Here are the statistical odds for the female race:

  • Daniela Ryf: 72% (1-1)
  • Mirinda Carfrae: 15% (5-1)
  • Heather Jackson: 3% (31-1)
  • Angela Naeth: 3% (34-1)
  • Carrie Lester: 2% (42-1)

Daniela is an even clearer favorite than Frodo on the men’s side – and it’s unlikely to change much during the season. Rinny is still her closest competitor, and it’ll be interesting to see how Rinny approaches her 2016 season: Is she going to put all her eggs in the Kona basket or will she want to deliver a good performance before that? As for the men, the rest of the women is behind “the big two”, there’ll be a couple of more names to consider as athletes that didn’t race in 2016 will return to Ironman racing and will need some results to qualify.

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