This is my first post with predictions for a 70.3 race. Some data might still be a bit wonky, but I think it gives a good view of the field’s strengths and weaknesses and how close the race is probably going to be – or how far ahead of the field Daniela’s results have been.
Previous Winners
| Year | Male Winner | Time | Female Winner | Time |
| 2006 | Craig Alexander (AUS) | 03:45:37 | Samantha McGlone (CAN) | 04:12:58 |
| 2007 | Andy Potts (USA) | 03:42:33 | Mirinda Carfrae (AUS) | 04:07:25 |
| 2008 | Terenzo Bozzone (NZL) | 03:40:10 | Joanna Zeiger (USA) | 04:02:48 |
| 2009 | Michael Raelert (GER) | 03:34:04 | Julie Dibens (GBR) | 03:59:33 |
| 2010 | Michael Raelert (GER) | 03:41:19 | Jodie Swallow (GBR) | 04:06:28 |
| 2011 | Craig Alexander (AUS) | 03:54:48 | Melissa Hauschildt (AUS) | 04:20:55 |
| 2012 | Sebastian Kienle (GER) | 03:54:35 | Leanda Cave (GBR) | 04:28:05 |
| 2013 | Sebastian Kienle (GER) | 03:54:02 | Melissa Hauschildt (AUS) | 04:20:07 |
| 2014 | Javier Gomez (ESP) | 03:41:30 | Daniela Ryf (SUI) | 04:09:19 |
| 2015 | Jan Frodeno (GER) | 03:51:19 | Daniela Ryf (SUI) | 04:11:34 |
Last Year’s TOP 3
Male Race Results
| Rank | Name | Nation | Swim | Bike | Run | Time |
| 1 | Jan Frodeno | GER | 00:22:14 | 02:09:04 | 01:16:32 | 03:51:19 |
| 2 | Sebastian Kienle | GER | 00:24:04 | 02:09:54 | 01:15:22 | 03:52:48 |
| 3 | Javier Gomez | ESP | 00:22:12 | 02:13:38 | 01:15:35 | 03:55:05 |
Female Race Results
| Rank | Name | Nation | Swim | Bike | Run | Time |
| 1 | Daniela Ryf | SUI | 00:23:46 | 02:21:10 | 01:22:51 | 04:11:34 |
| 2 | Heather Wurtele | CAN | 00:26:33 | 02:27:39 | 01:24:56 | 04:23:07 |
| 3 | Anja Beranek | GER | 00:24:32 | 02:24:18 | 01:31:17 | 04:24:10 |
KPR points and Prize Money
70.3 World Championship is a P-3000 race. It has a total prize purse of 250.000 US$.
Male Race Participants
| Rank | Bib | Name | Nation | Expected Time | Rating | Exp. Swim | Exp. Bike | Exp. Run | Overall |
| 1 | 3 | Lionel Sanders | CAN | 03:51:49 | 03:53:16 | 00:26:10 | 02:05:57 | 01:14:42 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sebastian Kienle | GER | 03:52:39 | 03:56:05 | 00:24:02 | 02:07:07 | 01:16:30 | 2 |
| 3 | 9 | Tim Don | GBR | 03:52:39 | 03:59:27 | 00:22:49 | 02:09:56 | 01:14:54 | 16 |
| 4 | 17 | Joe Gambles | AUS | 03:54:29 | 03:56:07 | 00:22:58 | 02:08:59 | 01:17:31 | 3 |
| 5 | 32 | Tyler Butterfield | BMU | 03:54:47 | 03:56:58 | 00:23:44 | 02:08:56 | 01:17:07 | 7 |
| 6 | 6 | Tim Reed | AUS | 03:54:48 | 03:56:39 | 00:22:56 | 02:09:38 | 01:17:13 | 5 |
| 7 | 8 | Andreas Dreitz | GER | 03:55:36 | 03:59:48 | 00:23:46 | 02:07:30 | 01:19:20 | 20 |
| 8 | 21 | Terenzo Bozzone | NZL | 03:55:48 | 03:58:24 | 00:22:40 | 02:09:12 | 01:18:55 | 11 |
| 9 | 15 | Sam Appleton | AUS | 03:55:58 | 03:59:39 | 00:22:42 | 02:09:12 | 01:19:03 | 18 |
| 10 | 20 | Brent McMahon | CAN | 03:56:50 | 03:59:47 | 00:22:18 | 02:10:09 | 01:19:22 | 19 |
| 11 | 11 | Trevor Wurtele | CAN | 03:57:18 | 04:00:19 | 00:24:26 | 02:09:52 | 01:18:00 | 25 |
| 12 | 10 | Craig Alexander | AUS | 03:57:40 | 03:58:35 | 00:23:01 | 02:11:39 | 01:18:00 | 13 |
| 13 | 4 | Ruedi Wild | SUI | 03:57:48 | 04:05:05 | 00:22:52 | 02:12:08 | 01:17:48 | 60 |
| 14 | 18 | Josh Amberger | AUS | 03:58:27 | 04:03:25 | 00:21:50 | 02:07:57 | 01:23:40 | 38 |
| 15 | 23 | Jan Van Berkel | SUI | 03:59:03 | 04:05:06 | 00:22:57 | 02:12:08 | 01:18:58 | 62 |
| 16 | 41 | Mark Bowstead | NZL | 04:00:08 | 04:03:33 | 00:23:26 | 02:10:54 | 01:20:49 | 44 |
| 17 | 16 | Taylor Reid | CAN | 04:00:23 | 04:04:31 | 00:24:17 | 02:11:15 | 01:19:51 | 56 |
| 18 | 24 | Maurice Clavel | GER | 04:01:36 | 04:03:51 | 00:22:53 | 02:14:22 | 01:19:21 | 47 |
| 19 | 36 | Igor Amorelli | BRA | 04:01:46 | 04:08:09 | 00:22:51 | 02:09:54 | 01:24:01 | 98 |
| 20 | 12 | Jake Montgomery | AUS | 04:01:49 | 04:03:29 | 00:22:31 | 02:11:32 | 01:22:46 | 41 |
| 21 | 42 | Brad Kahlefeldt | AUS | 04:02:08 | 04:03:22 | 00:22:40 | 02:15:40 | 01:18:48 | 37 |
| 22 | 27 | Mike Phillips | NZL | 04:02:52 | 04:04:18 | 00:23:06 | 02:12:10 | 01:22:36 | 54 |
| 23 | 38 | Nick Kastelein | AUS | 04:03:30 | 04:10:25 | 00:22:51 | 02:16:23 | 01:19:16 | 123 |
| 24 | 30 | Braden Currie | NZL | 04:04:06 | 04:06:52 | 00:23:09 | 02:15:41 | 01:20:16 | 85 |
| 25 | 43 | Graham O’Grady | NZL | 04:04:15 | 04:06:05 | 00:22:40 | 02:12:03 | 01:24:32 | 75 |
| 26 | 35 | Luke McKenzie | AUS | 04:04:27 | 04:07:54 | 00:23:53 | 02:11:24 | 01:24:10 | 96 |
| 27 | 29 | Matthew Pellow | AUS | 04:04:59 | 04:09:26 | 00:23:25 | 02:13:34 | 01:23:00 | 112 |
| 28 | 5 | Antony Costes | FRA | 04:05:01 | 04:09:01 | 00:22:52 | 02:13:07 | 01:24:02 | 110 |
| 29 | 46 | Tim George | AUS | 04:05:27 | 04:12:01 | 00:23:54 | 02:16:26 | 01:20:07 | (144) |
| 30 | 26 | Mitchell Robins | AUS | 04:06:43 | 04:11:23 | 00:23:53 | 02:15:51 | 01:21:58 | 136 |
| 31 | 50 | Daniel Fontana | ITA | 04:07:28 | 04:06:30 | 00:22:47 | 02:15:49 | 01:23:52 | 81 |
| 32 | 28 | David Mainwaring | AUS | 04:07:44 | 04:09:47 | 00:24:18 | 02:17:07 | 01:21:19 | 118 |
| 33 | 25 | Casey Munro | AUS | 04:08:29 | 04:10:29 | 00:22:42 | 02:15:38 | 01:25:08 | 124 |
| 34 | 45 | Adam Gordon | AUS | 04:09:07 | 04:14:19 | 00:26:27 | 02:14:44 | 01:22:55 | 171 |
| 35 | 40 | Peter Kerr | AUS | 04:09:26 | 04:14:28 | 00:22:21 | 02:21:16 | 01:20:49 | 174 |
| 36 | 39 | David Breuer | GER | 04:10:13 | 04:12:53 | 00:23:26 | 02:17:29 | 01:24:18 | 152 |
| 37 | 31 | Paulo Roberto Maciel da Silva | BRA | 04:10:19 | 04:12:15 | 00:22:58 | 02:18:49 | 01:23:32 | 147 |
| 38 | 37 | Guy Crawford | NZL | 04:10:55 | 04:13:43 | 00:23:45 | 02:16:01 | 01:26:10 | 162 |
| 39 | 22 | Christian Hoerper | GER | 04:11:26 | 04:15:27 | 00:25:05 | 02:20:58 | 01:20:23 | 185 |
| 40 | 53 | Paul Schuster | GER | 04:11:42 | 04:13:21 | 00:23:30 | 02:20:15 | 01:22:57 | 156 |
| 41 | 34 | Milosz Sowinski | POL | 04:12:04 | 04:16:08 | 00:24:32 | 02:18:03 | 01:24:29 | 195 |
| 42 | 49 | Mitchell Kibby | AUS | 04:13:28 | 04:15:00 | 00:23:51 | 02:19:47 | 01:24:51 | 179 |
| 43 | 55 | Mauro Baertsch | SUI | 04:13:31 | 04:18:37 | 00:25:06 | 02:20:12 | 01:23:12 | 230 |
| 44 | 44 | Nick Baldwin | SEY | 04:14:27 | 04:17:13 | 00:25:03 | 02:18:34 | 01:25:50 | 207 |
| 45 | 33 | Rodrigo Acevedo | COL | 04:15:06 | 04:20:20 | 00:26:12 | 02:18:05 | 01:25:49 | 256 |
| 46 | 52 | Roberto Rivera | CHI | 04:15:42 | 04:18:16 | 00:24:23 | 02:19:08 | 01:27:10 | 224 |
| 47 | 48 | Brad Williams | USA | 04:17:14 | 04:20:02 | 00:27:07 | 02:16:45 | 01:28:22 | 251 |
| 48 | 54 | Matt Franklin | NZL | 04:21:07 | 04:25:00 | 00:22:53 | 02:16:04 | 01:37:09 | 299 |
| 49 | 47 | Michael Davidson | ZAF | 04:22:48 | 04:28:53 | 00:26:31 | 02:27:44 | 01:23:34 | 331 |
Female Race Participants
| Rank | Bib | Name | Nation | Expected Time | Rating | Exp. Swim | Exp. Bike | Exp. Run | Overall |
| 1 | 101 | Daniela Ryf | SUI | 04:12:35 | 04:18:10 | 00:23:56 | 02:20:22 | 01:23:17 | 1 |
| 2 | 102 | Heather Wurtele | CAN | 04:17:33 | 04:18:50 | 00:26:10 | 02:22:15 | 01:24:08 | 2 |
| 3 | 110 | Melissa Hauschildt | AUS | 04:19:04 | 04:23:38 | 00:26:58 | 02:22:48 | 01:24:17 | 8 |
| 4 | 107 | Holly Lawrence | GBR | 04:19:13 | 04:22:24 | 00:24:10 | 02:21:50 | 01:28:13 | 4 |
| 5 | 105 | Caroline Steffen | SUI | 04:22:06 | 04:22:07 | 00:24:56 | 02:26:39 | 01:25:31 | 3 |
| 6 | 104 | Magali Tisseyre | CAN | 04:22:07 | 04:26:29 | 00:25:19 | 02:24:32 | 01:27:17 | 11 |
| 7 | 106 | Annabel Luxford | AUS | 04:22:54 | 04:27:15 | 00:24:25 | 02:25:32 | 01:27:57 | 14 |
| 8 | 115 | Alicia Kaye | USA | 04:24:33 | 04:29:56 | 00:24:18 | 02:24:37 | 01:30:38 | 22 |
| 9 | 124 | Ellie Salthouse | AUS | 04:24:55 | 04:26:44 | 00:24:44 | 02:27:09 | 01:28:02 | 12 |
| 10 | 112 | Radka Vodickova | CZE | 04:25:13 | 04:30:05 | 00:24:11 | 02:29:26 | 01:26:36 | 24 |
| 11 | 108 | Lauren Barnett | USA | 04:26:13 | 04:32:01 | 00:27:10 | 02:27:33 | 01:26:31 | 32 |
| 12 | 127 | Laura Philipp | GER | 04:29:14 | 04:31:51 | 00:27:22 | 02:29:30 | 01:27:21 | 30 |
| 13 | 111 | Leanda Cave | GBR | 04:29:53 | 04:32:10 | 00:24:42 | 02:30:26 | 01:29:45 | 35 |
| 14 | 119 | Linsey Corbin | USA | 04:30:30 | 04:35:17 | 00:27:10 | 02:29:09 | 01:29:11 | 48 |
| 15 | 120 | Laura Siddall | GBR | 04:32:04 | 04:38:41 | 00:28:15 | 02:30:01 | 01:28:48 | 63 |
| 16 | 118 | Sarah Crowley | AUS | 04:33:27 | 04:39:13 | 00:27:11 | 02:32:27 | 01:28:49 | 66 |
| 17 | 125 | Lauren Brandon | USA | 04:33:55 | 04:38:26 | 00:23:07 | 02:26:05 | 01:39:44 | 61 |
| 18 | 128 | Kirsty Jahn | CAN | 04:34:15 | 04:39:45 | 00:28:52 | 02:34:12 | 01:26:11 | 71 |
| 19 | 117 | Ricarda Lisk | GER | 04:34:28 | 04:44:07 | 00:25:22 | 02:35:50 | 01:28:16 | 111 |
| 20 | 114 | Alexandra Tondeur | BEL | 04:34:45 | 04:39:17 | 00:28:07 | 02:33:54 | 01:27:44 | 67 |
| 21 | 133 | Kate Pedley | AUS | 04:35:25 | 04:37:41 | 00:29:22 | 02:33:51 | 01:27:13 | 56 |
| 22 | 109 | Natascha Schmitt | GER | 04:35:43 | 04:40:29 | 00:26:28 | 02:34:26 | 01:29:49 | 74 |
| 23 | 123 | Andrea Forrest | AUS | 04:36:03 | 04:38:53 | 00:26:07 | 02:34:19 | 01:30:36 | 64 |
| 24 | 116 | Heather Lendway | USA | 04:36:19 | 04:40:53 | 00:23:58 | 02:30:06 | 01:37:15 | 79 |
| 25 | 130 | Dimity-Lee Duke | AUS | 04:37:08 | 04:38:16 | 00:28:33 | 02:31:02 | 01:32:33 | 60 |
| 26 | 129 | Katey Gibb | AUS | 04:37:24 | 04:40:46 | 00:26:21 | 02:34:09 | 01:31:53 | 77 |
| 27 | 121 | Astrid Stienen | GER | 04:38:22 | 04:39:18 | 00:28:53 | 02:34:43 | 01:29:45 | 68 |
| 28 | 126 | Kate Bevilaqua | AUS | 04:41:06 | 04:42:24 | 00:26:40 | 02:35:33 | 01:33:53 | 98 |
| 29 | 134 | Jessica Mitchell | AUS | 04:42:16 | 04:44:32 | 00:29:41 | 02:33:04 | 01:34:31 | 114 |
| 30 | 122 | Nikki Bartlett | GBR | 04:43:16 | 04:45:52 | 00:29:13 | 02:36:04 | 01:32:59 | 127 |
| 31 | 132 | Caroline Livesey | GBR | 04:45:14 | 04:49:44 | 00:28:24 | 02:36:06 | 01:35:44 | 160 |
| 32 | 139 | Kym Coogan | AUS | 04:46:16 | 04:48:30 | 00:27:10 | 02:38:47 | 01:35:19 | 144 |
| 33 | 137 | Renee Baker | AUS | 04:50:03 | 04:52:03 | 00:27:16 | 02:35:59 | 01:41:48 | 179 |
| 34 | 138 | Erika Simon | ARG | 04:56:55 | 04:58:55 | 00:30:01 | 02:38:48 | 01:43:05 | 208 |
Winning Odds
Male Race Participants
- Lionel Sanders: 33% (2-1)
- Sebastian Kienle: 13% (7-1)
- Joe Gambles: 13% (7-1)
- Josh Amberger: 9% (10-1)
- Tyler Butterfield: 7% (13-1)
- Tim Don: 6% (15-1)
- Sam Appleton: 5% (18-1)
- Tim Reed: 4% (23-1)
- Terenzo Bozzone: 3% (28-1)
- Andreas Dreitz: 3% (37-1)
Female Race Participants
- Daniela Ryf: 49% (1-1)
- Holly Lawrence: 24% (3-1)
- Heather Wurtele: 14% (6-1)
- Melissa Hauschildt: 6% (16-1)
- Caroline Steffen: 3% (37-1)
- Magali Tisseyre: 3% (38-1)
How the Race Might Unfold
Based on the previous results and “raw data” and putting aside race dynamics, here’s a look at how the races might unfold. The graphs below show at various points in the race who’s probably in the lead and how far back the other athletes are going to be. Of course this is just speculation and “the real race” still has to be run!
Male Race
As usual the men’s race is going to be very close and hard to predict. Nonetheless, here is my best “guess” at how the men’s race could develop:
The main points of the race:
- Josh Amberger is likely to lead after the swim, and he may well hold on that lead on the bike. However, the other athletes will try to close the gap as soon as possible on the bike, so he may get some company. For a Top 10 result Josh would need a much stronger run than he’s been able to show in the past, but if he’s injury free maybe he can show his potential.
- Sebastian Kienle is likely to loose around two minutes in the swim, and he will work hard to make up the difference on the bike. At minimum he should be near the front of the chase group (maybe teaming up with countryman and bike powerhouse Andy Dreitz?) and take the lead in the early part of the run. It’s going to be very interesting to see if an improved run allows him to hold on the leading position in the second half of the run.
- Lionel Sanders has been winning almost every 70.3 race this season. Even after losing more than four minutes in the swim, he should make up enough time on the bike for his fantastic run to win the race. In St. George he quickly closed the gap to Sebastian Kienle and they started the run together – Lionel put more than two minutes into Sebi to win there. Here even a gap of a minute or so to Sebi in T2 should still allow him to catch Sebi and win the race.
- There will be a large group of podium contenders pretty close together in T2. Tim Don has proven to be the fastest runner of them in the last couple of years – based on the data he’ll be in a statistical dead heat with Sebastian Kienle. But with a group of strong athletes such as Joe Gambles, Ty Butterfield, Tim Reed, Andy Dreitz, Terenzo Bozzone, Sam Appleton, Brent McMahon, Trevor Wurtele or Craig Alexander, there is going to be at least one athlete that will have a cracker day and is going to change things up. Interesting racing to look forward to for sure!
Female Race
Based on the data, the female race is probably going to be less exciting than the male race .. but a few athletes will not agree with this and will do their best to make Daniela work hard for the win!
Some key points:
- Lauren Brandon is likely to lead the race into T1, and she’ll stay close to the front up on the bike. She’ll be loosing more ground once the run starts.
- Daniela Ryf will be in a bigger group about one minute back in T1. She’s the best bike rider in the field and will start to build a solid lead into T2 (close to two minutes) that she should be able to extend on the run. With a “statistical gap” of almost five minutes to the next athlete something extraordinary would have to happen for her not to defend her title.
- For a long time Holly Lawrence should be the athlete closest to Daniela. She’ll likely swim a similar time and not loose to much time on the bike. For a podium finish she’ll need a strong run.
- Heather Wurtele and Mel Hauschildt will likely be further behind after the swim – three minutes to Lauren Brandon for Heather and four minutes for Mel. They have similar strong bike and run capabilities and should finish on the podium, but they are not likely to make up time to Daniela.
- Behind the Top 4, there is a large group of athletes with very similar capabilities. On a good day, Caroline Steffen, Magali Tisseyre, Annabel Luxford, Alicia Kaye, Ellie Malthouse or Radka Vodickova are able to contend for a podium spot.