Archive | Collins Cup

Collins Cup (August 28th) – Seedings

Here’s a detailed look at the matches that make up the inaugural Collins Cup on August 28th in Samorin, Slovakia. I’ve scaled down the times from the typical half distance to the Collins Cup distances of 2k swim, 80k bike and 18k run (total distance 100k), also taking into account that most of the bike will be on a fast, mildly rolling motorway. Without any previous races on the course it is difficult to come up with “exact times”, however the differences between the athletes are much more solid and should give you a good indication of who is likely to swim faster than the others etc.

Another aspect that is hard to account for is the unique format of the Collins Cup with only three athletes in the race. This is likely making it easier to break away from the others as there are fewer athletes who will put in extra work to close gaps. In addition, everyone is not only racing for themselves but also for the team – so even athletes falling behind are likely to be working extra hard for the team, to avoid losing too much time and to prevent the others teams from earning bonus points. 

As always, the numbers shown in this “Seedings” post should not be considered “the last word” – the intention is to serve as starting points for conversations. So please feel free to add your observations and opinions to my data-centric analysis below when entering your picks for the PTO Fantasy Game for the Collins Cup!

Each of the matches below has its interesting aspects. Here are a few extra caveats on the data below:

  • The US wildcards on the women’s side, Taylor Kibb and Katie Zaferes are very hard to predict – Taylor has had only one race on the half distance, Katie none so far. Obviously, with the limited amount of data points you can’t put too much faith in the expected times shown below – giving a lot of room for speculations!
  • Some athletes were forced to take a break to deal with injuries. For example, Teresa’s last race was in January, and Sebi was dealing with an injury that kept him from starting a race since May. Will they be able to race at almost 100% in their first race back?
  • It’s hard to properly account for recent travel and racing stress. A lot of athletes have had intercontinental travel to make it to Samorin and might still be adjusting to time zone changes. Some athletes have been racing a lot in recent weeks on a number of distances – e.g. in WTCS races (Taylor, Katie), Escape from Alcatraz (Emma, Ben), some even in a long-distance race (Jocelyn at IM Finland, Lionel at IM Copenhagen). What will this mean when they will need their absolute best in their matches?

Match 1: Daniela Ryf vs. Teresa Adam vs. Taylor Knibb

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Name Team ESwim EBike ET2 Run EFinish
Daniela Ryf EUR 00:28:14 01:52:02 02:25:16 01:09:06 03:34:22
Teresa Adam Int’l 00:28:02 01:51:54 02:24:56 01:16:59 03:41:55
Taylor Knibb USA 00:28:08 01:56:32 02:29:40 01:09:33 03:39:13

Winning Chances:

  • Daniela Ryf: 70%
  • Taylor Knibb: 15%
  • Teresa Adam: 15%

Match 2: Lucy Charles-Barclay vs. Paula Findlay vs. Katie Zaferes

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Name Team ESwim EBike ET2 Run EFinish
Lucy Charles-Barclay EUR 00:26:15 01:54:52 02:26:07 01:08:46 03:34:53
Paula Findlay Int’l 00:28:08 01:55:21 02:28:29 01:09:53 03:38:22
Katie Zaferes USA 00:27:38 01:56:12 02:28:50 01:09:10 03:38:00

Winning Chances:

  • Lucy Charles-Barclay: 60%
  • Paula Findlay: 25%
  • Katie Zaferes: 15%

Match 3: Annie Haug vs. Jeannie Metzler vs. Jackie Hering

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Name Team ESwim EBike ET2 Run EFinish
Anne Haug EUR 00:29:52 01:58:06 02:32:58 01:04:50 03:37:48
Jeanni Metzler Int’l 00:28:31 01:57:58 02:31:29 01:09:13 03:40:42
Jackie Hering USA 00:30:01 01:59:16 02:34:17 01:09:18 03:43:35

Winning Chances:

  • Anne Haug: 65%
  • Jeanni Metzler: 20% 
  • Jackie Hering: 15%

Match 4: Holly Lawrence vs. Ellie Salthouse vs. Skye Moench

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Name Team ESwim EBike ET2 Run EFinish
Holly Lawrence EUR 00:27:32 01:55:01 02:27:33 01:09:41 03:37:14
Ellie Salthouse Int’l 00:28:32 01:57:40 02:31:12 01:11:09 03:42:21
Skye Moench USA 00:30:15 01:55:27 02:30:42 01:10:57 03:41:39

Winning Chances:

  • Holly Lawrence: 50%
  • Ellie Salthouse: 25%
  • Skye Moench: 25%

Match 5: Emma Pallant-Browne vs. Sarah Crowley vs. Chelsea Sodaro

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Name Team ESwim EBike ET2 Run EFinish
Emma Pallant-Browne EUR 00:29:44 01:56:51 02:31:35 01:08:33 03:40:08
Sarah Crowley Int’l 00:29:22 01:58:15 02:32:37 01:11:56 03:44:33
Chelsea Sodaro USA 00:29:26 01:56:51 02:31:17 01:09:16 03:40:33

Winning Chances:

  • Chelsea Sodaro: 40%
  • Emma Pallant-Browne: 40%
  • Sarah Crowley: 20%

Match 6: Katrina Matthews vs. Carrie Lester vs. Jocelyn McCauley

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Name Team ESwim EBike ET2 Run EFinish
Katrina Matthews EUR 00:30:22 01:58:46 02:34:08 01:10:03 03:44:11
Carrie Lester Int’l 00:29:20 01:58:09 02:32:29 01:14:02 03:46:31
Jocelyn McCauley USA 00:29:41 01:57:29 02:32:10 01:17:01 03:49:11

Winning Chances:

  • Katrina Matthews: 60%
  • Carrie Lester: 30%
  • Jocelyn McCauley: 10%

Match 7: Jan Frodeno vs. Sam Appleton vs. Sam Long

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Name Team ESwim EBike ET2 Run EFinish
Jan Frodeno EUR 00:25:19 01:43:25 02:13:44 00:59:54 03:13:38
Sam Appleton Int’l 00:25:42 01:42:14 02:12:56 01:04:35 03:17:31
Sam Long USA 00:29:17 01:40:22 02:14:39 01:02:09 03:16:48

Winning Chances:

  • Jan Frodeno: 50%
  • Sam Long: 30%
  • Sam Appleton: 20%

Match 8: Gustav Iden vs. Kyle Smith vs. Colin Chartier

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Name Team ESwim EBike ET2 Run EFinish
Gustav Iden EUR 00:26:25 01:41:50 02:13:15 00:58:00 03:11:15
Kyle Smith Int’l 00:25:24 01:43:40 02:14:04 01:04:24 03:18:28
Collin Chartier USA 00:26:12 01:44:33 02:15:45 01:03:40 03:19:25

Winning Chances:

  • Gustav Iden: 70%
  • Kyle Smith: 20%
  • Collin Chartier: 10%

Match 9: Sebastian Kienle vs. Lionel Sanders vs. Andrew Starykowicz

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Name Team ESwim EBike ET2 Run EFinish
Sebastian Kienle EUR 00:27:59 01:42:06 02:15:05 01:01:45 03:16:50
Lionel Sanders Int’l 00:28:21 01:39:43 02:13:04 01:00:19 03:13:23
Andrew Starykowicz USA 00:27:06 01:40:32 02:10:29 01:07:44 03:20:13

Winning Chances:

  • Lionel Sanders: 60%
  • Sebastian Kienle: 25%
  • Andrew Starykowicz: 15%

Note: This match is probably the hardest to predict as there are recent developments that did not play a role in the seed times above. The most obvious one is that Lionel has completed IM Copenhagen just 6 days before this race, and no one really knows how well he’s recovered and how hard he’ll be able to race. In addition, Sebastian Kienle was forced to take an injury break after racing in May, and this will be his first race back. You can be pretty sure that Andrew Starykowicz would love to beat my numbers and win his match. 

Match 10: Daniel Baekkegard vs. Max Neumann vs. Ben Kanute

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Name Team ESwim EBike ET2 Run EFinish
Daniel Baekkegard EUR 00:25:26 01:45:50 02:16:16 01:02:15 03:18:31
Max Neumann Int’l 00:25:23 01:46:27 02:16:50 01:04:00 03:20:50
Ben Kanute USA 00:25:25 01:43:33 02:13:58 01:05:34 03:19:32

Winning Chances:

  • Daniel Baekkegard: 45%
  • Ben Kanute: 35%
  • Max Neumann: 20%

Match 11: Patrick Lange vs. Braden Currie vs. Matt Hanson

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Name Team ESwim EBike ET2 Run EFinish
Patrick Lange EUR 00:26:13 01:46:32 02:17:45 01:00:58 03:18:43
Braden Currie Int’l 00:26:02 01:46:09 02:17:11 01:02:30 03:19:41
Matt Hanson USA 00:27:49 01:45:19 02:18:08 01:00:53 03:19:01

Winning Chances:

  • Patrick Lange: 45%
  • Matt Hanson: 30% 
  • Braden Currie: 25%

Match 12: Joe Skipper vs. Jackson Laundry vs. Justin Metzler

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Name Team ESwim EBike ET2 Run EFinish
Joe Skipper EUR 00:29:27 01:46:14 02:20:41 01:08:08 03:28:49
Jackson Laundry Int’l 00:27:31 01:44:59 02:17:30 01:02:45 03:20:15
Justin Metzler USA 00:26:44 01:46:43 02:18:27 01:04:44 03:23:11

Winning Chances:

  • Jackson Laundry: 60%
  • Justin Metzler: 30%
  • Joe Skipper: 10%

The Collins Cup 2021 (Aug 28th) – Team List

The first edition of the Collins Cup will be held on August 28th in Samorin. The Collins Cup will be a team event, in 12 matches one athlete from each of the three teams will race each other. The winner of each match scores 3 points, 2nd place 2 points and 1 point for 3rd, plus some bonus points for being far ahead. The winner of the Collins Cup will be the team that scores the most points in each of the matches.

Course details have not been announced yet, for now I have listed athletes with their course-neutral “70.3 Ratings”. But the distances are expected to be 2k swim, 80k bike and 18k run, so the times will be considerably faster than below. I plan to update the expected times closer to the race.

Updates:

  • August 24th: The US had some last minutes changes, Heather Jackson has been replaced by Jocelyn McCauley and Chris Leiferman by Andrew Starykowicz.

Male Race Participants

# Name Nat Team 70.3 Rating Swim Bike T2 Run
1 Gustav Iden NOR Europe 03:44:55 00:24:14 02:08:06 02:35:50 01:09:01
2 Jan Frodeno GER Europe 03:47:25 00:23:14 02:10:03 02:36:47 01:11:16
3 Lionel Sanders CAN Internationals 03:47:10 00:26:10 02:06:16 02:35:56 01:12:23
4 Sam Long USA USA 03:51:11 00:26:55 02:06:29 02:36:55 01:14:06
5 Rudy Von Berg USA USA 03:50:00 00:23:54 02:09:28 02:36:52 01:14:34
6 Sam Appleton AUS Internationals 03:51:54 00:23:41 02:09:02 02:36:12 01:16:36
7 Sebastian Kienle GER Europe 03:52:48 00:25:59 02:09:56 02:39:26 01:14:15
8 Daniel Baekkegard DEN Europe 03:52:49 00:23:20 02:13:06 02:39:56 01:14:05
9 Matt Hanson USA USA 03:53:09 00:25:32 02:12:30 02:41:32 01:12:29
10 Kyle Smith NZL Internationals 03:53:02 00:23:19 02:10:30 02:37:19 01:16:42
11 Patrick Lange GER Europe 03:53:42 00:24:03 02:13:58 02:41:30 01:12:32
12 Chris Leiferman USA USA 03:56:50 00:26:18 02:11:08 02:40:56 01:14:17
13 Braden Currie NZL Internationals 03:54:35 00:23:53 02:13:31 02:40:55 01:14:23
14 Ben Kanute USA USA 03:55:30 00:23:34 02:10:43 02:37:47 01:17:44
15 Jackson Laundry CAN Internationals 03:54:27 00:25:16 02:12:08 02:40:54 01:14:44
Andrew Starykowicz USA USA 03:54:48 00:24:56 02:06:35 02:35:01 01:20:48
16 Max Neumann AUS Internationals 03:56:47 00:23:35 02:13:56 02:41:01 01:16:44
17 Justin Metzler USA USA 03:58:13 00:24:32 02:14:18 02:42:21 01:17:05
18 Joe Skipper GBR Europe 04:03:30 00:26:48 02:12:28 02:42:47 01:22:53

Female Race Participants

# Name Nat Team 70.3 Rating Swim Bike T2 Run
1 Daniela Ryf SUI Europe 04:11:59 00:25:55 02:21:02 02:50:27 01:22:18
2 Lucy Charles-Barclay GBR Europe 04:18:02 00:24:19 02:25:41 02:53:29 01:22:50
3 Holly Lawrence GBR Europe 04:15:30 00:25:15 02:24:42 02:53:27 01:22:57
4 Anne Haug GER Europe 04:17:14 00:27:29 02:29:05 03:00:04 01:17:26
5 Paula Findlay CAN Internationals 04:18:04 00:25:49 02:25:09 02:54:28 01:23:12
6 Taylor Knibb USA USA 04:17:40 00:25:24 02:23:55 02:54:03 01:23:37
7 Chelsea Sodaro USA USA 04:18:54 00:27:01 02:27:01 02:57:33 01:22:28
8 Jeanni Metzler ZAF Internationals 04:20:15 00:26:09 02:28:22 02:58:01 01:22:22
9 Emma Pallant-Browne GBR Europe 04:20:05 00:27:25 02:27:48 02:58:43 01:22:03
10 Skye Moench USA USA 04:19:54 00:27:47 02:25:21 02:56:38 01:24:32
11 Teresa Adam NZL Internationals 04:22:44 00:25:47 02:21:04 02:50:21 01:31:50
12 Ellie Salthouse AUS Internationals 04:23:16 00:26:16 02:28:13 02:57:59 01:24:38
13 Jackie Hering USA USA 04:22:12 00:27:32 02:30:01 03:01:03 01:22:28
14 Katrina Matthews GBR Europe 04:23:54 00:27:52 02:29:26 03:00:49 01:23:23
15 Heather Jackson USA USA 04:23:42 00:29:02 02:26:34 02:59:06 01:25:44
16 Sarah Crowley AUS Internationals 04:24:21 00:26:58 02:28:48 02:59:16 01:25:39
17 Carrie Lester AUS Internationals 04:27:04 00:26:56 02:28:45 02:59:11 01:28:12
Jocelyn McCauley (KQ) USA USA 04:31:22 00:27:16 02:28:01 02:58:47 01:31:48
18 Katie Zaferes USA USA unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated

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