Archive | IM Arizona

Ironman Arizona 2019 – Analyzing Results

IMArizona LogoCourse Conditions

Once again Arizona was a quick course (adjustment of 13:39, leading to a new course rating of 14:41), allowing two sub-9 finishes for the women Pros. It’s the bike leg that makes Arizona quick (bike adjustment of 15:08). However there have been years with faster conditions, and no new course records were set this year.

Kona Qualifying

There were two female Kona Pro slots on the line in Arizona, these go to

  • Heather Jackson
    and
  • Meredith Kessler.

In addition winner Sarah Crowley already had an Automatic Qualifier slot from finishing third in Kona which she validated.

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money
1 Sarah Crowley AUS 00:55:09 04:45:01 03:03:36 08:49:37 03:10 US$ 20,000
2 Heather Jackson USA 01:01:06 04:44:41 03:04:08 08:55:49 04:25 US$ 10,000
3 Meredith Kessler USA 00:53:44 04:54:38 03:10:19 09:05:35 -05:33 US$ 6,500
4 Melanie McQuaid CAN 00:59:29 04:53:26 03:19:25 09:20:00 -21:00 US$ 4,000
5 Lauren Brandon USA 00:49:58 04:51:38 03:39:09 09:27:27 08:46 US$ 3,000
6 Mareen Hufe GER 01:01:09 04:50:42 03:31:11 09:30:04 18:25 US$ 2,000
7 Ashley Paulson USA 01:11:53 05:18:36 02:57:45 09:34:55 -18:33 US$ 1,500
8 Erin Green USA 01:01:14 05:03:55 03:27:35 09:41:16 -10:22 US$ 1,250
9 Kyra Wiens USA 00:59:20 05:06:36 03:36:29 09:48:44 -07:48 US$ 1,000
10 Palmira Alvarez MEX 01:09:53 05:03:55 03:32:45 09:54:01 -09:58 US$ 750
11 Zuzana Trnovcova SVK 01:06:07 05:02:11 03:37:34 09:55:21 -12:00
12 Kristin Lie NOR 01:06:01 05:24:58 03:32:16 10:11:55 -01:22
13 Kristin Louderback USA 01:06:24 05:27:30 03:36:15 10:17:58 -21:40
14 Janien Lubben NED 01:11:50 05:04:54 04:00:07 10:24:26 11:31
Amanda Wendorff USA 01:02:04 04:58:52 DNF
Linsey Corbin USA 01:01:08 05:03:19 DNF
Melanie Baumann SUI 01:10:56 05:17:28 DNF
Jennifer Clark USA 01:08:36 DNF

Ironman Arizona 2019 (WPRO-only, Nov 24th) – Seedings

IMArizona LogoPrevious Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:25:42 Kate Major (AUS) 09:44:02
2006 Michael Lovato (USA) 08:20:56 Michellie Jones (AUS) 09:12:53
2007 Rutger Beke (BEL) 08:21:14 Heather Gollnick (USA) 09:36:40
2008 Jozsef Major (HUN) 08:34:19 Erika Csomor (HUN) 09:14:49
2008 Andreas Raelert (GER) 08:14:16 Heleen Bij De Vaate (NED) 09:21:06
2009 Jordan Rapp (USA) 08:13:35 Samantha McGlone (CAN) 09:09:19
2010 Timo Bracht (GER) 08:07:16 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:36:13
2011 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 07:59:38 Leanda Cave (GBR) 08:49:00
2012 Nils Frommhold (GER) 08:03:13 Linsey Corbin (USA) 09:01:41
2013 Victor Del Corral (ESP) 08:02:00 Julia Gajer (GER) 08:52:49
2014 Brent McMahon (CAN) 07:55:48 Meredith Kessler (USA) 08:50:41
2015 Lionel Sanders (CAN) 07:58:22 Meredith Kessler (USA) 08:44:00
2016 Lionel Sanders (CAN) 07:44:29 Meredith Kessler (USA) 08:48:23
2017 Lionel Sanders (CAN) 07:54:10 Kaisa Sali (FIN) 08:51:54
2018 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:04:24 Heather Jackson (USA) 08:39:18

Last Race’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:49:48 04:21:52 02:47:31 08:04:24
2 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 00:49:52 04:21:18 02:51:14 08:08:41
3 TJ Tollakson USA 00:51:53 04:14:38 02:58:16 08:09:53

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Heather Jackson USA 00:57:33 04:35:25 03:00:48 08:39:18
2 Carrie Lester AUS 00:53:06 04:37:42 03:07:40 08:44:13
3 Jen Annett CAN 01:03:49 04:35:13 03:07:35 08:51:29

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:44:29 Lionel Sanders 2016-11-20
Swim overall 00:45:31 Rafael Goncalves 2016-11-20
Bike overall 04:03:35 Andrew Starykowicz 2015-11-15
Run overall 02:40:17 Brent McMahon 2016-11-20
Total female 08:36:13 Chrissie Wellington 2010-11-21
Swim female 00:48:13 Leanda Cave 2008-11-23
Bike female 04:35:13 Jen Annett 2018-11-18
Run female 02:52:56 Chrissie Wellington 2010-11-21

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Arizona is 14:45.

Race Adjustments for IM Arizona

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 08:56 00:47 09:48 -01:38 44 08:56 00:47 09:48 -01:38
2007 08:46 00:34 04:12 04:00 30 08:51 00:40 07:01 01:11
2008 09:59 01:09 08:24 00:28 40 09:14 00:50 07:28 00:56
2008 14:13 01:43 10:39 01:51 66 10:28 01:03 08:16 01:10
2009 17:36 00:04 15:15 02:18 45 11:54 00:51 09:40 01:24
2010 14:31 00:16 12:00 02:16 54 12:20 00:45 10:03 01:32
2011 16:49 -00:39 15:39 01:50 67 12:59 00:33 10:51 01:35
2012 13:35 -01:55 15:01 00:30 60 13:03 00:15 11:22 01:27
2013 20:51 -00:20 19:56 01:15 75 of 86 13:55 00:11 12:18 01:26
2014 09:25 -00:52 09:38 00:41 49 of 67 13:28 00:05 12:02 01:21
2015 21:47 00:19 19:01 02:27 56 of 75 14:14 00:06 12:40 01:27
2016 22:57 -00:15 19:24 03:49 63 of 70 14:57 00:05 13:14 01:39
2017 12:19 -00:13 12:24 00:10 36 of 47 14:45 00:03 13:10 01:32
2018 14:47 -01:57 17:10 -00:26 38 of 48 14:45 -00:05 13:27 01:24

Kona slots and Prize Money

IM Arizona has 2 Pro Kona slot(s). It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$, paying 10 deep.

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 28% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 2 Sarah Crowley (AQ) AUS 08:44:11 08:59:51 00:52:47 04:43:23 05:41:10 03:03:01 72% +28% -0% (11) 4
2 1 Heather Jackson USA 08:44:58 09:04:57 00:56:38 04:40:47 05:42:25 03:02:33 93% +5% -2% (13) 6
3 3 Linsey Corbin (KQ) USA 08:56:01 09:12:12 00:57:23 04:51:15 05:53:38 03:02:23 98% +2% -0% (30) 13
4 6 Meredith Kessler USA 09:03:21 09:30:01 00:50:28 04:53:14 05:48:41 03:14:40 51% +2% -48% (33) 41
5 7 Mareen Hufe * GER 09:08:55 09:26:04 00:58:24 04:48:37 05:52:01 03:16:54 85% +12% -3% (31) 30
6 4 Lauren Brandon USA 09:13:45 09:35:53 00:47:51 04:51:50 05:44:42 03:29:03 45% +11% -44% (10) 49
7 5 Annah Watkinson * ZAF 09:14:18 09:30:07 00:57:57 05:01:06 06:04:03 03:10:15 68% +0% -32% (9) 42
8 13 Lenny Ramsey * NED 09:18:40 09:41:34 01:04:44 05:04:53 06:14:37 03:04:03 54% +21% -25% (5) 55
9 15 Melanie McQuaid CAN 09:20:46 10:01:07 00:56:57 04:57:05 05:59:02 03:21:44 34% +28% -38% (7) 76
10 10 Laurel Wassner * USA 09:27:50 09:49:59 00:55:16 05:06:11 06:06:27 03:21:23 71% +7% -22% (14) (65)
11 12 Jessica Smith USA 09:48:36 10:24:57 00:55:15 05:13:26 06:13:41 03:34:55 54% +0% -46% (9) (113)
12 14 Ashley Paulson * USA 09:48:38 10:14:05 01:12:56 05:19:59 06:37:54 03:10:44 58% +10% -32% (10) 99
13 19 Erin Green USA 09:48:49 10:12:23 01:02:06 05:13:03 06:20:10 03:28:39 95% +5% -0% (9) 97
14 8 Kyra Wiens USA 09:52:13 10:17:32 00:59:16 05:14:49 06:19:05 03:33:08 100% +0% -0% (3) 104
15 9 Amanda Wendorff USA 09:52:59 10:19:23 00:59:55 05:00:06 06:05:01 03:47:58 40% +0% -60% (4) (107)
16 21 Holly Benner USA 09:54:02 10:26:06 00:55:04 05:13:29 06:13:33 03:40:29 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (114)
17 23 Melanie Baumann SUI 09:57:05 10:23:11 01:13:24 05:14:13 06:32:37 03:24:28 62% +23% -14% (5) 110
18 24 Palmira Alvarez MEX 10:02:06 10:25:11 01:07:27 05:09:23 06:21:50 03:40:16 64% +4% -31% (11) 113
19 11 Zuzana Trnovcova SVK 10:03:35 10:34:55 01:06:18 05:08:28 06:19:46 03:43:49 48% +0% -52% (2) (117)
20 18 Kristin Lie NOR 10:04:27 10:35:03 01:11:29 05:14:38 06:31:07 03:33:20 75% +0% -25% (18) 117
21 16 Janien Lubben NED 10:10:11 10:41:22 01:11:26 05:09:32 06:25:58 03:44:13 48% +52% -0% (2) (119)
22 20 Jennifer Clark USA 10:20:47 10:55:55 01:06:15 05:26:28 06:37:44 03:43:03 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (123)
23 17 Kristin Louderback USA 10:40:32 11:15:07 01:04:53 05:36:57 06:46:50 03:53:42 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (125)
22 Lisa Becharas USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Winning Odds

Female Race Participants

  • Heather Jackson: 48% (1-1)
  • Sarah Crowley: 43% (1-1)
  • Linsey Corbin: 7% (13-1)

Ironman Arizona (WPRO-only, Nov 24th) – Entry List

Updates:

  • November 2nd: Added Janien Lubben and Ashley Paulson. Danielle Mack is no longer on the list.
  • October 25th: Added Lisa Becharas, Lauren Brandon, Kristin Lie, Kristin Louderback, Annah Watkinson, Amanda Wendorff. Carrie Lester is no longer on the list.
  • October 7th: Added Palmira Alvarez, Sarah Crowley, Kyra Wiens;
    Angela Naeth and Natasha Van der Merwe are no longer on the latest list.
  • September 17th: Added Erin Green, Melanie McQuaid and Lenny Ramsey
  • September 2nd: Added Carrie Lester
  • August 25th: Added Gurutze Frades Larralde, Mareen Hufe, Angela Naeth and Zuzana Trnovcova

Kona Slots and Prize Money

IM Arizona has 2 Pro Kona slots. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$, paying 10 deep.

Female Race Participants

Name Nation
Palmira Alvarez MEX
Melanie Baumann SUI
Lisa Becharas USA
Holly Benner USA
Lauren Brandon USA
Jennifer Clark USA
Linsey Corbin (KQ) USA
Sarah Crowley (AQ) AUS
Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP
Erin Green USA
Mareen Hufe GER
Heather Jackson USA
Meredith Kessler USA
Jennifer Lentzke CAN
Carrie Lester AUS
Kristin Lie NOR
Kristin Louderback USA
Janien Lubben NED
Danielle Mack USA
Melanie McQuaid CAN
Skye Moench USA
Angela Naeth (KQ) CAN
Ashley Paulson USA
Lenny Ramsey NED
Jessica Smith USA
Zuzana Trnovcova SVK
Natasha Van der Merwe USA
Annah Watkinson ZAF
Amanda Wendorff USA
Kyra Wiens USA

Kona Pro Slots – Part 2: Different Approaches

The current algorithm applied by Ironman to allocate Pro slots between and women (see my previous post “Kona Pro Slots – Part 1: Reverse Engineering The Assignment Algorithm“) is working based on the size of the field. This post describes two different approaches: Strength of the Field and Performance. I’ll discuss the Pros and Cons of these approaches in my next post.

Strength of Field

Measuring Strength of the Field

Measuring the quality of a field isn’t straightforward: I have tried a number of approaches that either didn’t work or were too complicated before settling on a relatively simple “points” system when showing in my seedings how good a field is. (The details can be found in my March 2017 “Strength of Field” post.) The base approach is to look at which starters have been racing Kona in the two previous years. As we’re looking for a system to determine how many athletes in each category to qualify for Kona, this seems to be a reasonable approach for assigning slots.

Basically, the points system determines how many “Kona athletes” are in the current race. Here’s how the system works:

  • 1 point for each athlete that has raced the previous Kona race (so for the current 2019 qualifying season athletes that have raced Kona 2018),
  • 0.5 points for each athlete that hasn’t raced the previous Kona race but the year before (athletes that haven’t raced Kona 2018 but Kona 2017),
  • 1 bonus point for each athlete that has won Kona in the past,
  • 0.5 bonus points for each athlete that has finished on the podium in Kona before

If you apply these numbers to the male and female fields, you get two numbers that you can then use as the base for the Jefferson Method as determined in the previous post. Please note that this system still favors the male athletes (as the male Pro field in Kona has been larger and there are therefore more male Kona Pros that can contribute points).

Example 1: IM Arizona

First, let’s have a look at the female field in Arizona:

  • Kona 2018 athletes: Annett, Jackson, Kessler, Lester, Robertson, Smith (6 points)
  • No Kona 2017 athletes that haven’t also raced in 2018 (no points)
  • No previous Kona winners (no points)
  • Kona podium: Jackson (0.5 bonus points)

This means the female fields “scores” 6.5 points. Next up, the men’s field:

  • Kona 2018 athletes: Dreitz, Plese, Skipper (3 points)
  • Kona 2017: Llanos (0.5 points)
  • No previous Kona winners (no points)
  • Kona podium: Llanos (0.5 bonus points)

The men’s field has a strength of 4 points. Running these number through the Jefferson Method (for unassigned slots), we get the following grid:

Arizona Strength 1 2
Male 4 4 2
Female 6.5 6.5 3.25
Total   2 slots

The result would have been an even split of slots.

Example 2: IM Mar del Plata

Here’s the strength of the female Pro field in Mar del Plata:

  • Kona 2018 athletes: Carfrae, Cheetham, Crowley, Lundstroem, Piampiano (5 points)
  • No Kona 2017 athletes that haven’t also raced in 2018 (no points)
  • Previous Kona winner: Carfrae (1 bonus point)
  • Kona podium: Carfrae, Crowley (1 bonus point)

This means the female fields “scores” 7 points. The men’s field:

  • Kona 2018 athletes: Chrabot, Hanson, O’Donnell, Potts, Weiss (5 points)
  • No additional Kona 2017 athletes (no points)
  • No previous Kona winners (no points)
  • Kona podium: O’Donnell (0.5 bonus points)

The men’s field has a strength of 5.5 points. Here’s the resulting grid for these numbers, taking into account the extra slots:

Mar del Plata Strength 1 2 3
Male 5.5 Auto 2.75 1.5
Female 7 Auto 3.5 2.33
Total   4 slots (1 each minimum)

Once again, we’d get even slots.

Performance

On the “If We Were Riding” podcast, Kelly O’Mara suggested to not “fix” the number of slot assignment before the race but to use the performance on race day. While her full blown version of “qualifying standards” is much more complicated and probably not workable given the differences between courses and conditions on race day, here is a suggestion on how to compare the performances between the male and female Pros in a given race.

Comparing Finishing Times

When looking at the best finishing times between the men and women, a conversion factor can be calculated. As a start, the average Top 10 finishing time of the male Pros in Kona this year was 8:04:02, the average Top 10 time for the females was 8:48:05. Dividing the female average by the male average, we get a factor of 91.66% that can be used to convert the female times into male equivalents and thus compare their performance. (Obviously, this factor will need to take more races into account if this approach is going to be used, but it seems to reasonable to calculate a factor after each Kona race and then use it for the remainder of the qualifying season.)

Example 1: IM Arizona

When applying the conversion factor to the female times, we get the following order of performances:

  1. 7:55:59 Heather Jackson (8:39:18 * 91.66%)
  2. 8:00:29 Carrie Lester
  3. 8:04:24 Eneko Llanos (no change to his finish time)
  4. 8:07:09 Jen Annett
  5. 8:08:41 Clemente Alonso

As we have four slots available, three would go to the women (Heather, Carrie and Jen) and only one to the men. (This would also “observe” the minimum of one slot for each gender.)

Example 2: IM Western Australia

For Western Australia we get the following performance order:

  1. 7:56:00 Terenzo Bozzone
  2. 7:57:40 Cameron Wurf
  3. 8:05:34 Caroline Steffen
  4. 8:07:18 Matt Burton
  5. 8:09:43 Luke McKenzie

IM WA also has four slots, in this case they would be assigned to three men and one woman.

Example 3: IM Mar del Plata

The conversion for Mar del Plata gives the following ranking:

  1. 7:30:23 Michael Weiss (already qualified)
  2. 7:38:33 Sarah Crowley
  3. 7:39:47 Matt Hanson
  4. 7:41:39 Susie Cheetham
  5. 7:42:22 Mario de Elias
  6. 7:46:30 Minna Koistinen
  7. 7:46:39 Jesper Svensson (already qualified)
  8. 7:48:09 Lukas Kraemer

With six available slots, we’d have an even split with three male and three female slots. (In addition, Mirinda Carfrae validates her Kona Winner slot.)

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