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An Early Short List of 2024 Ironman World Championships Favorites

Even though the 2024 Ironman World Championships in Nice and Kona are still months away and we have a full season of racing in front of us, maybe now is a good time to start discussing the “statistical favorites” for the races. After all, the “short list” is typically built from previous winners and last year’s podium – this is what the first section on “Past Winners” looks at. Then we apply this historical data on the September and October races to see who should be in the mix – and who may be overlooked by this simple way of building a short list.

Of course we still have a lot of racing left before Kona 2024, but I’m still giving “baseline odds” based on 2023 racing and the historical data. Of course, these odds are likely to change before the fall Championships.

Data on Past Winners

When looking at the past winners of the Ironman World Championships, most of them have placed well in the previous year. To put it another way: The best indication for winning Kona is previous success in Kona. Here is the distribution of how the Kona winners after 1990 did before their wins:

Some more details on the categories:

  • Winner: In the 66 races since 1990 (33 men and 33 women), the winner has also won the year before (8 men, 12 women). Interestingly, the last title defenses were already five years ago in 2018 when Patrick Lange and Daniela Ryf retained their 2017 titles.
  • Second & Third: The other athletes on the previous year’s podium have won 24% (second place the year before) and 14% (third place). Both 2023 winners, Sam Laidlow and Lucy Charles-Barclay were second in October 2022.
  • Another common scenario is a previous champion (who maybe had to a bad race the year before or sometimes haven’t been racing at all), this has happened about 16% of the time. Recent examples are Jan Frodeno (who won 2019 after not racing in 2018 with an injury) and Daniela Ryf (who won May 2022 after finishing 13th in the previous race which was in 1999).
  • Winning on Debut is quite rare: It has happened about 8% since 1990 which corresponds to 5 instances: For the men, it was Luc Van Lierde (1996), Kristian Blummenfelt (May 2022) and Gustav Iden (October 2022), for the women we have Chrissie Wellington (2007) and Chelsea Sodaro (October 2022).
  • This leaves only a few “Other” occurrences, all of which have been quite a while ago: Greg Welch (won 1994 but didn’t race in 1993), Peter Reid (won 1998 and was fourth in 1997), Normann Stadler (won 2004 and was fourth in 2003), Heather Fuhr (won 1997 but was seventh the year before) and Natascha Badmann (won 1998 but DNF’d the year before).

A final note about the cutoff date: Going all the way back through Ironman history mainly increases the “Debut” category – not a big surprise since all but one of the first nine champions won on debut! (The exception is John Howard who won 1981 after finishing third the year before.) Before 1990, there have only been another four “Other” winners: Scott Molina (won 1988 after not racing in 1987), Mark Allen (won 1989 after fifth the year before), Joanne Ernst (winning 1985 after fourth the year before) and Erin Baker (winning 1987 after a DNF in 1986).


Nice 2024 – Women

The following graph shows “baseline odds” for the women’s racing in Nice on September 22nd:

2024 will be the first time that the women’s World Championships will be held on the tough bike course in Nice. As we’ve seen in the men’s 2023 race, this may put an extra emphasis on a strong bike leg.

Lucy Charles-Barclay – DNS

As the defending Champion, Lucy would likely be the pre-race favorite. However, she has announced that she will not be racing Nice this year, instead focusing on the T100 Tour. Unless that changes, I have to take her out of the Nice odds.

Anne Haug – 25%

Anne has always raced well in big races – she won the Ironman Championship title in 2019 and was on the podium in all her starts. Her run strength forces the other athletes to take some extra risks on the bike, hoping to create a gap that’s too big even for Anne to run down. This has worked in the three most recent Championship races when others were able to have a career day. But Anne only needs a slightly better day herself .. and maybe a small improvement on the bike. Will racing the T100 Series help her reach T2 after the tough bike course in Nice with a smaller gap to the leader, and will she still be able to then run through the field?

Laura Philipp – 15%

With her third place in Kona 2023, Laura has been able to join the statistical “short list” – in previous years she was almost there after two fourth places in 2019 and 2022. Can she be in the mix in the final hour of Nice 2024? She will likely need a better swim so she doesn’t have to play catch up in the first part of the bike as in Kona 2023. Racing the T100 Tour might help her build resilience in deep swim fields, and then the tough bike course in Nice should suit her strengths and give her a lot of tactical options. As she is also one of the strongest runners on the full distance, she might be the next German World Champion winning after placing third the year before. Can she join the group of Faris Al-Sultan, Sebastian Kienle, Jan Frodeno, Patrick Lange and Anne Haug?

Daniela Ryf – 20%

Daniela will be the athlete with the most World Championships on the Nice startline, and she’s also the athlete who won the race the last time it was held outside of Kona: She won St. George after putting seven minutes into Kat Matthews and twelve minutes and more into the rest of the field on the bike. Can she deliver a similarly dominating bike performance in Nice and then also run well? Sam has shown in the men’s 2023 race that a lead of six minutes will be hard to overcome. Can Daniela win her final Ironman World Championship and reinforce her position as one of the greatest Ironman athletes? 

Chelsea Sodaro – 15%

When Chelsea won the 2022 Kona title, she had a strong bike leg, starting the run about two minutes ahead of Anne and then posting the fastest marathon. In Kona 2023, she struggled on the bike but then also had a good marathon, the second-fastest of the day but still four minutes slower than Anne. How strong will Chelsea bike in the French mountains – and how strong can she run in September 2024? If she can put together three solid legs, she will be at least a strong podium contender.

Who’s Missing? 25%

There are a few more names who will be discussed as Nice favorites. Skye Moench might be one of the athletes who will try to be in the mix, but her tactics might be calibrated for a spot on the podium. Taylor Knibb has impressed in her Ironman debut in Kona 2023, but she’ll be focused on the Olympic Games and it’s not clear if she can validate her slot from winning 70.3 Worlds and then also build for Nice which probably suits her bike strength. Another athlete with a strong bike leg is Kat Matthews who has been on the podium in St. George in 2022. Can either of these become the first female Champion from the “Other” category since Natascha Badmann in 1998?

Kona 2024 – Men

Here are “baseline odds” for the October race in Kona after 2023 racing:

Let’s have a closer look at the athletes on the short list!

Sam Laidlow – 25%

The “easy pick” is always last year’s winner. Sam has delivered two great performances in the last two Ironman World Championship races – second in Kona 2022 and winner in Nice 2023. There is very little reason not to have him as a strong contender for 2024 as well. In both recent years, he’s had a fair mix of ups and downs, and he may arrive in Kona 2024 without having shown his “Championship form” in any of the upcoming races. Even then, he’ll have to be taken seriously as he’s always racing for the win and has shown that he can deliver. 

Patrick Lange – 15%

Without any doubt, Patrick has been the best long-course runner in recent years – he seems to be chasing course records and possibly also the first 2:30 marathon. While that is unlikely in the heat and humidity of Kona, he’ll be looking to reclaim the run course record which was taken over by Gustav Iden with a 2:36:14 as part of his 2022 win. In Nice 2023, Patrick ran seven minutes and more into anyone likely to start the run ahead of him, and nine minutes into Sam. If Patrick wants to win another big title, he can’t give up more time than that into T2, likely forcing him to bike a bit harder – and still run at a similar level. Are we going to see any indication of an improvement on the bike in his 2024 races before Kona?

Magnus Ditlev – 15%

Magnus has shown that he has the necessary tools to win big races – especially a very strong bike leg. His third place in Nice 2023 was his first Ironman World Championship podium, and often that is a necessary step on the way to the title. For the last two years, Magnus had his best performance in the summer, winning Challenge Roth with fast times, and maybe he was already a bit “battle-weary” by fall for the Championship races. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s quiet for the first two-thirds of the year, even if he will be tempted to race the T100 Tour and defend his Roth title. What season plan will he choose for 2024 and will that allow him to race his best in October? 

Kristian Blummenfelt – 15%

For the first half of the season, Kristian will be focused on July 30th – the Olympic Games in Paris and a chance to defend his Gold medal from Tokyo. After that, he plans to shift to Ironman racing and Kona. This leaves the question of how he intends to validate his slot. If he wants to avoid doing a full-distance Ironman, he’d have to finish two Ironman 70.3s before July, i.e. as part of his Paris prep. The alternative would be to do an Ironman after Paris – but then his only option before the validation period closes is Ironman Frankfurt on August 18th. Let’s see where he’s going to show up for validation! And how competitive can he be in Kona after almost two full seasons focused on shorter distances?

Gustav Iden – 15%

Gustav has had a crappy 2023 season, and he starts 2024 with an Achilles injury that keeps him from doing proper run training. Hopefully, he can quickly get back to full health, and hopefully he can then train and race with a clear head. Will he still try to qualify for Paris, or is he going to put his full focus on long-distance racing for 2024? And would that require a change in his training environment as his training buddy Kristian will be focused on Paris? Among all the contenders discussed so far, Gustav is likely to be the first athlete with an indication of where things may go for 2024 and if he can be back to racing competitively. If he can get things back to his 2021 and 2022 level, he’ll be a top contender for Kona 2024 – and he and Sam can argue about who will be the “real defending champion” for Kona 2024.

Who’s missing?

This early in the season, there are a lot of questions “the usual suspects” have to answer before Kona. In addition, 2024 racing could add another name or two to the “Kona short list”. Which changes in the early odds shown above are going to develop during the season?

Women’s Ironman World Championship 2023 – How the Race Unfolded

Here are the Top 10 finishers from the women’s 2023 Ironman World Championship in Kona and a few others who played an important role as the race progressed:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money
1 Lucy Charles-Barclay GBR 00:49:36 (1) 04:32:29 (1) 02:57:38 (4) 08:24:31 -13:42 US$ 125,000
2 Anne Haug GER 00:54:10 (18) 04:40:23 (10) 02:48:23 (1) 08:27:33 -06:13 US$ 65,000
3 Laura Philipp GER 00:56:49 (26) 04:35:52 (3) 02:55:24 (3) 08:32:55 -04:23 US$ 45,000
4 Taylor Knibb USA 00:51:16 (7) 04:34:00 (2) 03:05:13 (10) 08:35:56 n/a US$ 25,000
5 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:54:11 (19) 04:38:34 (4) 03:02:11 (7) 08:40:34 02:06 US$ 20,000
6 Chelsea Sodaro USA 00:54:00 (12) 04:50:35 (23) 02:53:02 (2) 08:42:25 07:34 US$ 18,000
7 Skye Moench USA 00:56:47 (24) 04:38:44 (6) 03:02:40 (8) 08:43:34 -07:59 US$ 15,000
8 Sarah True USA 00:54:02 (14) 04:46:15 (14) 03:02:09 (6) 08:47:06 -00:27 US$ 13,000
9 Lisa Norden SWE 00:54:08 (17) 04:38:36 (5) 03:11:18 (16) 08:49:36 -02:31 US$ 12,000
10 Jocelyn McCauley USA 00:54:04 (15) 04:38:53 (7) 03:12:56 (19) 08:50:39 -09:40 US$ 11,000
11 Hannah Berry NZL 00:53:39 (10) 04:46:31 (15) 03:08:39 (13) 08:53:45 -11:46 US$ 8,000
12 Ruth Astle GBR 00:59:39 (31) 04:39:03 (8) 03:11:54 (18) 08:55:35 -02:49 US$ 6,000
13 Penny Slater AUS 00:56:52 (28) 04:47:17 (17) 03:08:08 (12) 08:57:17 -18:41 US$ 5,000
14 Svenja Thoes GER 00:56:51 (27) 04:55:12 (30) 03:01:07 (5) 08:58:30 -09:28 US$ 4,000
15 Els Visser NED 00:56:48 (25) 04:43:53 (12) 03:14:02 (22) 08:59:16 -04:16 US$ 3,000
16 Laura Siddall GBR 00:59:55 (37) 04:43:17 (11) 03:11:19 (17) 08:59:51 -05:51
Katrina Matthews GBR 00:54:06 (16) DNF

You can find the full results in my Kona Results post.

The following graph shows how the race developed (click for a hi-res version):

Top10 Women.

Here’s a short summary of the race:

  • Lucy Charles-Barclay took control of the race in the swim – and never surrendered her first position. Posting the fastest bike leg and a strong 2:57 marathon, she won her first Ironman World Championship after finishing in second place four times.
  • Behind Lucy, Ironman rookie Taylor Knibb was in second place for most of the day before losing two spots after the Energy Lab and crossing the finish line in fourth place.
  • There were a lot of small shifts behind Lucy and Taylor but no big time gaps were created on the bike. On the run, Anne Haug had the fastest marathon of the day and ran herself into second place.
  • Laura Philipp overcame a small swim deficit in the first part of the bike, then also ran well to overtake Taylor in the final miles, claiming her first full-distance World Championship podium.

0 IMHawaii2023-Podium.

(All photos are kindly supplied by Marcel Hilger.)

Let’s have a closer look at each of the top finishers.

Ironman World Champion: Lucy Charles-Barclay

Leading from start to finish, Lucy won her first Kona title and also set a new course record:

Lucy erased any doubts about how aggressive she would swim and gapped the rest of the field very early. Until the turn, her lead was relatively small, but then she grew the gap on the way back, reaching T1 90 seconds ahead of Haley Chura, Lauren Brandon and a few more strong swimmers. Once on the bike, only Taylor Knibb rode at a similar pace to Lucy. Their pace in the first half was off-the-charts: Both rode the first 59.5 miles to the turn in Hawi with exactly the same split of 2:23:02 – five(!) minutes quicker than Daniela Ryf in 2018 when she set the bike course record.

1 IMHawaii2023-LucyBike.

Behind Taylor, everyone else fell further behind, and by T2 Lucy had a gap of almost eleven minutes to third place. Daniela had ridden the return leg in 2018 exceptionally well and the conditions were not quite as fast in 2023. Even if Lucy’s 2023 bike split of 4:32 was six minutes slower than Daniela’s 4:26, Lucy had the fastest bike split, in the second half she put another two minutes and more into the rest of the field. Even though Lucy struggled with a painful calf tear, she was running well and there was only the occasional misstep that showed she was racing on the edge. Outwardly, there was never any doubt about her win, and she posted a fourth-best 2:57 marathon, a new run PR. She also set a new Kona course record, two minutes quicker than Daniela in the calm 2018 conditions.

Second Place: Anne Haug

With her second place, Anne now has a full set of Ironman World Championship medals (after winning in 2019 and third places in 2018 and 2022):

Anne’s day started with a solid swim, about 4:30 back in a bigger group with most of the favorites. Even with a few slower swimmers catching up, that group was getting smaller in the early miles on the bike. Anne didn’t seem too happy with the on-and-off pace in the group and she let them ride away in the climb to Hawi. On balance, riding at her own pace seemed to be a good decision: She lost more time to Lucy at the front and some time to those she let go, but a lot of others fell back and Anne was riding well in the Top 10. In previous years, Anne struggled a bit in the last hour of the bike – this year she was the fastest athlete in that section, almost catching the first big chase group with Laura and others. She started the run in seventh place just over 12 minutes behind Lucy – when she won in 2019 she was over eight minutes behind.

2 IMHawaii2023-AnneRun.

Once again, Anne was clearly the fastest runner in the field, climbing into fourth place in the first few miles, then catching and overtaking Laura after the climb on Palani after mile 10. At that point she had already halved the gap to Taylor who was running in second place, eventually catching her in the Energy Lab. Even if Lucy seemed out of reach, Anne kept up the pace, set a new run course record and finished in second place.

Third Place: Laura Philipp

After two fourth places in 2019 and 2022, Laura Philipp improved one spot to claim her first podium result:

Laura was probably looking for a swim as in Roth earlier this year, close to Anne and her other main competitors, but she lost contact with them early in the swim and had to settle for leading the group behind them. She entered T1 seven minutes behind Lucy and almost three minutes behind the group around Anne. But she was not discouraged and started the bike riding hard. Only Els Visser was able to ride a similar pace to her, and they quickly gained ground to the Anne group: In the first 25 miles, they had closed the gap to just a few remaining seconds. Laura had overcome her swim deficit and now had a chance to recover from a hard first hour on the bike.

3 IMHawaii2023-LauraBike.

After Kawaihae (about mile 45), she moved forward in the group which quickly shattered in the climb up to the turn in Hawi. After Hawi, she was riding in a small group with Lisa Norden and Jocelyn McCauley – with only Lucy and Taylor in front of them. But after mile 80, their pace slowed down slightly: Lucy and Taylor started to increase their lead over them and others behind them were able to make up a bit of time to them. Laura’s small group had been able to ride away from Daniela and Anne, but Anne had been able to close the gap to them from over three minutes at mile 80 down to about 90 seconds in T2. By then, Laura was also more than ten minutes behind Lucy and six and a half behind Taylor.

On the run, she quickly asserted that she was the fastest runner in her little group, but it also quickly became obvious that Anne was running faster and should be able to catch her. Laura seemed to struggle a bit with the heat running up Palani, and soon after Anne caught and overtook her, quickly putting time between them. Coming out of the Energy Lab at about mile 21, Laura was in fourth place, two minutes behind Taylor. Her husband and coach Philipp Seipp gave her some extra encouragement for another push in the final 10k. Laura continued to run well but the gap to Taylor didn’t shrink fast enough. But after mile 24, Taylor ran a bit out of steam, and within the last 5k Laura was able to run almost five minutes into Taylor. With the third-best marathon of the day, Laura claimed third place.

Fourth Place: Taylor Knibb

Taylor didn’t disappoint at all in her first Ironman, making the race more interesting and finishing in fourth place:

As Taylor had received her Kona slot based on her win at the 2022 70.3 World Championships and had never raced a full Ironman race, there was a lot of discussion before the race about her chances, how aggressive she should race in her first Ironman race and what decisions she would make on race day. Once the gun went off, it quickly became apparent that this race would start differently to the two head-to-heads between Lucy and Taylor in 2022 when Taylor was just a few seconds behind Lucy after the swim. In Kona 2023, Taylor reached T1 in seventh place, 100 seconds behind Lucy. Taylor rode well at the start of the bike and overtook everyone who swam with her.

4 IMHawaii2023-TaylorBike.

After 20 miles, Taylor was alone in no-man’s land – one and a half minutes behind Lucy but also about four minutes ahead of the other favorites. Taylor stayed calm and rode her own pace, not making up time to Lucy but still putting more time into the chasers. At the turn in Hawi, Lucy was two minutes ahead but the next athlete behind Taylor was Daniela who was five minutes behind.

With the camera on Taylor, you could see her lose a couple of water bottles from her behind-the-saddle cage. Before the race, Ironman had announced that they would more strongly enforce the no-litter-rule and that referees would give out one-minute penalties for unintentional littering. After about four hours in the race, Taylor dropped another bottle and she was given a penalty. She wasn’t able to serve the penalty before T2: The penalty tent at mile 28 – on the way towards Hawi on the northern side of the road – becomes the penalty tent at mile 85 – on the way back to town on the southern side of the road – by moving the tent across the road. However, that is only viable when all athletes have already passed the penalty tent on the way out – and Taylor reached mile 85 before the tent was no longer needed at mile 28. Therefore she had to continue past the tent and ride on until shortly before T2. As she was told before mile 85 that she had to continue she did not lose any time for this organizational issue and it probably didn’t impact her race.

After a short stop at the tent half a mile before T2 to finally serve her penalty, Taylor started the run two minutes behind Lucy and ran at a similar pace to her. In the Energy Lab, she needed a quick bathroom break and was about to be overtaken by Anne. Somewhere around mile 24, it seems that Taylor ran out of energy and had to slow down a bit, giving Laura a chance to catch and overtake her. Still, Taylor was about five minutes ahead of fifth place and could cruise to finish in fourth place.

Fifth Place: Daniela Ryf

Daniela tried a few things early on in the bike to push the pace but never quite got into contention for the win. Still, she ran well to finish fifth:

Daniela’s race started with a typical swim for her with most of the favorites, starting the bike about four and a half minutes behind Lucy. Her first hour on the bike was also typical: She gained a few spots in the field but there were no big changes in the race situation. But then after about 30 miles, Daniela started to move away from the other athletes she was riding with, quickly building a lead of about a minute to Anne and others.

5a IMHawaii2023-DanielaBike2.

But Daniela was still losing time to Lucy, by the turn in Hawi she was seven minutes behind and the gap to the athletes behind also started to get smaller. By mile 70, she was caught by Laura, Lisa and Jocelyn and wasn’t able to stay with them for long, quickly falling a minute behind them. But that also wasn’t a decisive change, the gap stayed about the same for the next 30 miles and then even started to shrink in the last half hour on the bike.

By T2, Daniela had almost ridden up to them, starting the run in sixth place eleven minutes behind Lucy but only 25 seconds behind the podium ranks. In the first few miles of the run, Daniela gained two spots by overtaking Lisa and Jocelyn but then also lost one spot to Anne who was clearly running faster. At the run turn on the Queen K after 6k, Daniela was in fifth place and nothing would change for Daniela in the remaining two and a half hours of the race. Daniela was running a solid marathon just over three hours – those in front of her were putting time into her while she was running faster than those behind her. Even running on her own, she was able to keep her mind engaged, probably knowing that it was her final Kona race. (She made an official announcement after the race.) She had a much better marathon than last year when she ran a 3:22 to finish eighth. This year, she ran a 3:02 to finish fifth and when Chelsea was getting closer, she was even able to pick up the pace at the end.

Sixth Place: Chelsea Sodaro

The defending champion fell out of contention after the first third of the bike and lost a lot of time, then had the second-fastest marathon to run into sixth place:

In the swim, Chelsea was only a few more seconds behind Lucy as last year (4:23 vs. 3:50 in 2022), but last year she had been able to swim slightly quicker than most of the other favorites while this year Anne, Daniela, Lisa and others were within seconds of her at the start of the bike. That was more or less the group Chelsea was riding with for the first 45 miles until the climb up to Hawi started and Chelsea lost contact to them. After the race she revealed that a hip injury made it hard for her to ride hard. When others forced the pace, Chelsea fell further and further back.

6 IMHawaii2023-ChelseaBike.

By T2, she was 21st, more than 22 minutes behind Lucy and ten minutes behind Anne. It would have been easy to call it a day, but Chelsea felt she had more to give – and what a marathon she delivered! The second-best marathon of the day saw her move back into the Top 10 by mile 15, and after 40k of the run and eight and a half hours of racing, she climbed into sixth place, showing remarkable persistence in making the best of a bad bike ride and proving once again that she is one of the best runners in women’s triathlon.

Seventh Place: Skye Moench

After losing time in the swim, Skye ran her own race and finished seventh:

Among the Top 10 contenders, Skye probably had one of the slower swims, starting the bike with Laura over seven minutes behind Lucy in 24th place – while she probably would have liked to be with Anne and others who were two and a half minutes ahead. But that almost didn’t seem to matter to her, she was riding her own pace and not losing any additional time to the chase group. For the first 50 miles, not much had changed but when things started to get hard on the climb to Hawi Skye quickly climbed the ranks.

7 IMHawaii2023-SkyeBike.

By T2 Skye was in eighth place, still only two and a half minutes behind Lisa Norden or Jocelyn McCauley who she should be able to catch on the run. By mile 12, Skye had caught both of them and was running in sixth place. Around mile 15, she had to slow down a bit and her forward progress in the field didn’t continue. In the last miles, Skye was caught by a much faster-running Chelsea and had to settle for seventh place. Still, being the first finisher behind the six title contenders ahead of her and after a sub-standard swim is a very respectable result for Skye.

Eighth Place: Sarah True

A solid day for Sarah True saw her finish in eighth place:

Sarah was able to swim in the first big chase group with most of the top favorites, and she was also able to ride with them for the first 45 miles. Just like Chelsea, she had to drop back once the race for the podium started for real. After the turn, Sarah was able to move away from Chelsea in the first half of the bike and in the final miles caught a few athletes who had ridden too hard. She reached T2 in tenth place but the gaps to the slower runners ahead of her were quite big. In the end, a 3:02 marathon was the sixth-best of the day and enough to climb into eighth place.

8 IMHawaii2023-SarahT.

Ninth Place: Lisa Norden & Tenth Place: Jocelyn McCauley

Once again, Lisa and Jocelyn used their strong bike legs to claim Kona Top 10 finishes:

09 Lisa 10 Jocelyn.

After swimming in the main chase group with Anne and Daniela, Lisa and Jocelyn took their time before playing the “bike card”.

9 IMHawaii2023-LisaBike.

On the climb to Hawi, they teamed up with Laura and started to put time into the rest of the contenders. But they weren’t able to close the gap to the front and also started to fade a bit towards the end of the bike, allowing Daniela and Anne to get back most of the time they had lost earlier.

10 IMHawaii2023-JocelynBike.

Out of T2, Jocelyn was slightly faster but then Lisa moved ahead, and for the whole run course they were never more than two minutes apart. Both are not known as strong runners and they were overtaken by Anne, Daniela, Skye, Sarah and Chelsea – but their 3:11 and 3:12 marathons were still good enough to claim the last two spots in the Top 10.

Eleventh to Sixteenth Place .. and a DNF

Here’s a look at a few more interesting athletes at Kona:

For the first three hours of the race, Hannah Berry was in a good position in the big chase group with most of the favorites. But when the pace picked up in the climb to Hawi, she started to fall back and by T2 had lost six minutes to Anne. Starting the run in 11th place, she ran well but wasn’t able to make up any ground and also finished in 11th.

Ruth Astle had struggled with a run injury for most of the season so it wasn’t clear what she’d be able to do after finishing the bike in ninth place. With a 3:11, she lost three spots to finish in twelfth, still well inside the money ranks.

Penny Slater‘s race went well for the first two hours before she received a penalty and instead of riding in the second chase group she fell back into 31st place. By T2 she had worked herself back into 20th, and with a solid 3:08 marathon she gained a few more spots on the run to finish thirteenth.

After a good swim in the chase group, Svenja Thoes was losing time on the bike, and she started the tun in 28th place. It took a fifth-best 3:01 marathon to climb into the money ranks.

After Els Visser lost some time in the swim, she rode with Laura back into the chase group. Then she stayed with Anne but started to fall back in the final bike miles. At the end of the marathon, she won the fight with Laura for the last money spot.

Laura Siddall had received a wild card for Kona and was able to show that she deserved it: It was only in the last few miles that she fell out of the money ranks, finishing 16th just 35 seconds behind Els.

Before the race, Kat Matthews was considered one of the top favorites. However, she fell behind the chase group on the climb to Hawi and was forced to end her race when she was weaving across the road.

Ironman Hawaii 2023 (WPRO-only) – Analyzing Results

Kona23 MedalI will add a look at the course conditions later. Qualifying slots for next year’s World Championship will go to the podium (Lucy, Anne and Laura). (The next three are also qualified, either as previous Kona Champions or as current 70.3 Champion.)

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money
1 Lucy Charles-Barclay GBR 00:49:36 (1) 04:32:29 (1) 02:57:38 (4) 08:24:31 -13:42 US$ 125,000
2 Anne Haug GER 00:54:10 (18) 04:40:23 (10) 02:48:23 (1) 08:27:33 -06:13 US$ 65,000
3 Laura Philipp GER 00:56:49 (26) 04:35:52 (3) 02:55:24 (3) 08:32:55 -04:23 US$ 45,000
4 Taylor Knibb USA 00:51:16 (7) 04:34:00 (2) 03:05:13 (10) 08:35:56 n/a US$ 25,000
5 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:54:11 (19) 04:38:34 (4) 03:02:11 (7) 08:40:34 02:06 US$ 20,000
6 Chelsea Sodaro USA 00:54:00 (12) 04:50:35 (23) 02:53:02 (2) 08:42:25 07:34 US$ 18,000
7 Skye Moench USA 00:56:47 (24) 04:38:44 (6) 03:02:40 (8) 08:43:34 -07:59 US$ 15,000
8 Sarah True USA 00:54:02 (14) 04:46:15 (14) 03:02:09 (6) 08:47:06 -00:27 US$ 13,000
9 Lisa Norden SWE 00:54:08 (17) 04:38:36 (5) 03:11:18 (16) 08:49:36 -02:31 US$ 12,000
10 Jocelyn McCauley USA 00:54:04 (15) 04:38:53 (7) 03:12:56 (19) 08:50:39 -09:40 US$ 11,000
11 Hannah Berry NZL 00:53:39 (10) 04:46:31 (15) 03:08:39 (13) 08:53:45 -11:46 US$ 8,000
12 Ruth Astle GBR 00:59:39 (31) 04:39:03 (8) 03:11:54 (18) 08:55:35 -02:49 US$ 6,000
13 Penny Slater AUS 00:56:52 (28) 04:47:17 (17) 03:08:08 (12) 08:57:17 -18:41 US$ 5,000
14 Svenja Thoes GER 00:56:51 (27) 04:55:12 (30) 03:01:07 (5) 08:58:30 -09:28 US$ 4,000
15 Els Visser NED 00:56:48 (25) 04:43:53 (12) 03:14:02 (22) 08:59:16 -04:16 US$ 3,000
16 Laura Siddall GBR 00:59:55 (37) 04:43:17 (11) 03:11:19 (17) 08:59:51 -05:51  
17 Haley Chura USA 00:51:06 (2) 04:50:28 (22) 03:14:47 (24) 09:01:10 -18:01  
18 Radka Kahlefeldt AUS 00:54:01 (13) 04:50:00 (21) 03:14:14 (23) 09:03:07 -04:27  
19 Laura Jansen GER 00:59:37 (30) 04:52:44 (28) 03:06:14 (11) 09:03:14 03:41  
20 Rebecca Clarke NZL 00:51:11 (4) 04:49:29 (19) 03:18:08 (25) 09:04:00 -08:13  
21 Maja Stage Nielsen DEN 00:56:43 (22) 04:49:36 (20) 03:13:28 (21) 09:04:26 06:15  
22 Laura Zimmermann GER 01:02:02 (41) 04:50:42 (24) 03:08:49 (14) 09:07:45 -04:58  
23 Jen Annett CAN 01:06:43 (45) 04:46:40 (16) 03:10:16 (15) 09:08:35 -09:32  
24 Leonie Konczalla GER 01:07:53 (47) 04:51:27 (27) 03:03:31 (9) 09:09:02 -00:26  
25 Rachel Zilinskas USA 00:51:15 (6) 05:01:00 (37) 03:13:20 (20) 09:10:46 -07:32  
26 Lotte Wilms NED 00:51:13 (5) 04:53:01 (29) 03:24:28 (32) 09:15:09 18:48  
27 Sara Svensk SWE 00:59:34 (29) 04:39:49 (9) 03:32:40 (39) 09:17:55 20:11  
28 Pamella Oliveira BRA 00:52:01 (9) 04:56:44 (32) 03:24:25 (31) 09:18:40 10:37  
29 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:56:43 (22) 04:48:49 (18) 03:28:50 (37) 09:19:44 05:43  
30 Fenella Langridge GBR 00:53:58 (11) 04:58:31 (36) 03:24:48 (33) 09:22:16 32:00  
31 Mariana Andrade BRA 01:02:03 (42) 04:50:55 (25) 03:27:50 (34) 09:26:19 -03:29  
32 Jeanne Collonge FRA 00:59:56 (38) 04:57:54 (34) 03:24:08 (28) 09:27:41 -01:34  
33 Daniela Bleymehl GER 00:59:43 (32) 04:45:08 (13) 03:38:03 (41) 09:27:42 33:00  
34 Chloe Lane AUS 00:54:14 (21) 04:58:07 (35) 03:30:13 (38) 09:28:31 06:07  
35 Sarah Crowley AUS 00:52:00 (8) 04:51:09 (26) 03:45:43 (42) 09:35:11 31:45  
36 Carla Dahan FRA 00:59:46 (34) 05:07:02 (40) 03:24:12 (30) 09:36:42 -10:08  
37 Agnieszka Jerzyk POL 00:59:44 (33) 05:13:32 (44) 03:20:50 (26) 09:38:53 40:41  
38 Kate Gillespie-Jones AUS 01:06:33 (44) 04:56:56 (33) 03:33:17 (40) 09:43:05 18:46  
39 Laura Brown AUS 01:06:47 (46) 05:12:43 (43) 03:22:07 (27) 09:48:01 06:46  
40 Lauren Brandon USA 00:51:09 (3) 04:55:25 (31) 03:58:11 (45) 09:50:28 33:41  
41 Alexandra Watt USA 00:59:59 (39) 05:18:20 (45) 03:28:06 (35) 09:52:54 -01:54  
42 Sarah Thomas AUS 01:07:58 (48) 05:22:13 (46) 03:28:32 (36) 10:04:10 02:55  
43 Melanie McQuaid CAN 00:59:50 (35) 05:10:10 (42) 03:48:20 (43) 10:04:51 42:16  
44 Fiona Moriarty IRL 01:01:58 (40) 05:05:16 (38) 03:57:50 (44) 10:10:51 30:25  
45 Jodie Robertson USA 00:59:54 (36) 05:08:00 (41) 04:02:46 (46) 10:18:05 1:06:11  
46 Hilary Hughes IRL 01:16:34 (49) 05:32:37 (47) 03:24:11 (29) 10:22:29 33:47  
  Danielle Lewis USA 01:02:58 (43) 05:06:29 (39)   DNF    
  Katrina Matthews GBR 00:54:06 (16)     DNF    
  Justine Mathieux FRA 00:54:11 (19)     DNF    

Ironman Hawaii 2023 (WPRO, Oct 14th) – Seedings

Kona23 MedalKona slots and Prize Money

IM World Championships has 3 Pro Kona slot(s). It has a total prize purse of 375.000 US$, paying 15 deep.

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 70% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency
1 1 Chelsea Sodaro USA 08:42:55 00:55:36 04:47:39 05:48:15 02:54:40 0% +100% -0% (1)
2 3 Anne Haug GER 08:43:34 00:57:38 04:47:08 05:49:47 02:53:47 79% +21% -0% (3)
3 4 Daniela Ryf SUI 08:43:51 00:56:03 04:39:54 05:40:57 03:02:54 68% +14% -18% (7)
(4) 5 Taylor Knibb USA 08:43:59 00:51:51 04:46:37 05:43:28 03:00:31 n/a (no Kona Pro race)
5 2 Lucy Charles-Barclay GBR 08:46:10 00:50:55 04:48:18 05:44:14 03:01:56 23% +77% -0% (4)
6 6 Laura Philipp GER 08:46:21 00:58:14 04:48:03 05:51:16 02:55:05 100% +0% -0% (2)
7 12 Katrina Matthews GBR 08:46:42 00:57:38 04:48:07 05:50:45 02:55:57 n/a (no Kona Pro race)
8 14 Sarah True USA 08:55:40 00:54:09 04:56:26 05:55:35 03:00:05 -0% +21% -79% (3)
9 10 Skye Moench USA 08:56:46 00:57:01 04:49:36 05:51:37 03:05:09 100% +0% -0% (1)
10 8 Fenella Langridge GBR 08:59:24 00:52:52 04:50:27 05:48:19 03:11:05 100% +0% -0% (1)
11 7 Lisa Norden SWE 09:00:49 00:55:14 04:46:05 05:46:20 03:14:29 100% +0% -0% (1)
12 31 Daniela Bleymehl GER 09:06:10 01:01:00 04:47:05 05:53:05 03:13:05 29% +0% -71% (3)
13 9 Sarah Crowley AUS 09:07:25 00:55:35 04:57:09 05:57:44 03:09:41 71% +29% -0% (5)
14   Barbara Riveros CHI 09:08:14 00:56:15 04:57:30 05:58:45 03:09:29 n/a (no Kona Pro race)
15 18 Ruth Astle GBR 09:08:40 01:01:57 04:51:05 05:58:03 03:10:37 100% +0% -0% (1)
16 45 Sara Svensk SWE 09:09:22 01:01:11 04:52:22 05:58:33 03:10:49 0% +0% -100% (2)
17 25 Maja Stage Nielsen DEN 09:09:48 00:57:33 04:58:23 06:00:56 03:08:52 100% +0% -0% (4)
18 17 Lotte Wilms NED 09:11:19 00:52:59 05:01:28 05:59:26 03:11:53 n/a (no Kona Pro race)
19 11 Laura Siddall GBR 09:11:37 01:00:26 04:52:12 05:57:38 03:13:59 77% +0% -23% (4)
20 16 Kylie Simpson AUS 09:12:15 01:13:59 04:52:52 06:11:51 03:00:24 100% +0% -0% (1)
21 15 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 09:12:43 01:03:46 05:07:11 06:15:56 02:56:47 90% +0% -10% (5)
22 24 Jocelyn McCauley USA 09:12:51 00:55:51 04:52:22 05:53:13 03:19:38 0% +15% -85% (4)
23 36 Agnieszka Jerzyk POL 09:13:25 00:59:21 04:55:22 05:59:42 03:13:43 n/a (no Kona Pro race)
24   Susie Cheetham GBR 09:13:58 00:58:59 04:58:00 06:01:58 03:12:00 75% +0% -25% (6)
25 19 Els Visser NED 09:15:18 01:00:38 04:54:29 06:00:07 03:15:11 100% +0% -0% (1)
26 38 Laura Jansen GER 09:15:19 01:02:06 05:00:46 06:07:52 03:07:27 n/a (no Kona Pro race)
27 21 Pamella Oliveira BRA 09:16:19 00:53:37 05:04:10 06:02:47 03:13:32 0% +0% -100% (1)
28   Gabriele Maria Obmann AUT 09:17:51 01:04:07 05:00:02 06:09:09 03:08:42 n/a (no Kona Pro race)
29 26 Danielle Lewis USA 09:18:06 01:04:22 05:02:18 06:11:40 03:06:26 n/a (no Kona Pro race)
30 29 Svenja Thoes GER 09:19:15 01:01:18 05:04:12 06:10:29 03:08:46 0% +0% -100% (1)
31 30 Radka Kahlefeldt AUS 09:20:08 00:56:12 05:03:59 06:05:10 03:14:58 n/a (no Kona Pro race)
32 39 Hannah Berry NZL 09:21:06 00:55:24 05:01:56 06:02:21 03:18:45 n/a (no Kona Pro race)
33 35 Lauren Brandon USA 09:21:15 00:51:02 05:00:16 05:56:18 03:24:57 0% +0% -100% (4)
34 54 Manon Genet FRA 09:22:34 00:58:14 05:03:40 06:06:55 03:15:39 0% +0% -100% (2)
35 27 Rebecca Clarke NZL 09:24:00 00:52:32 05:05:07 06:02:40 03:21:20 100% +0% -0% (1)
36 47 Justine Mathieux FRA 09:24:05 00:59:33 05:02:23 06:06:56 03:17:09 100% +0% -0% (1)
37 20 Jodie Robertson USA 09:24:19 01:03:35 05:05:17 06:13:52 03:10:27 84% +0% -16% (4)
38 43 Leonie Konczalla GER 09:24:40 01:09:17 04:56:34 06:10:52 03:13:48 n/a (no Kona Pro race)
39 55 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:25:37 00:58:29 04:58:54 06:02:23 03:23:14 71% +8% -20% (7)
40   Alice Alberts USA 09:25:57 01:01:25 05:04:11 06:10:36 03:15:21 n/a (no Kona Pro race)
41 28 Haley Chura USA 09:26:14 00:53:55 05:08:36 06:07:31 03:18:43 28% +60% -13% (4)
42 37 Laura Zimmermann GER 09:26:55 01:05:26 05:01:47 06:12:14 03:14:41 100% +0% -0% (1)
43   Meredith Kessler USA 09:27:03 00:55:36 05:05:54 06:06:30 03:20:33 7% +0% -93% (8)
44 22 Rachel Zilinskas USA 09:29:10 00:52:51 05:12:54 06:10:46 03:18:24 n/a (no Kona Pro race)
45 41 Jen Annett CAN 09:29:16 01:05:00 05:00:57 06:10:57 03:18:19 73% +0% -27% (3)
46 33 Penny Slater AUS 09:30:29 01:00:04 05:03:42 06:08:46 03:21:43 100% +0% -0% (1)
47 23 Chloe Lane AUS 09:32:39 00:58:03 05:10:41 06:13:44 03:18:55 n/a (no Kona Pro race)
48 42 Melanie McQuaid CAN 09:37:33 00:59:13 05:06:41 06:10:54 03:26:39 n/a (no Kona Pro race)
49 50 Mariana Andrade BRA 09:39:46 00:59:09 05:10:13 06:14:22 03:25:24 n/a (no Kona Pro race)
50 46 Kate Gillespie-Jones AUS 09:41:05 01:04:03 05:04:11 06:13:14 03:27:51 n/a (no Kona Pro race)
51 40 Jeanne Collonge FRA 09:43:36 01:02:15 05:07:53 06:15:08 03:28:28 0% +0% -100% (1)
52 44 Fiona Moriarty IRL 09:52:24 01:05:04 05:15:30 06:25:34 03:26:50 n/a (no Kona Pro race)
53 52 Laura Brown AUS 09:56:48 01:04:15 05:24:27 06:33:42 03:23:06 n/a (no Kona Pro race)
54 53 Carla Dahan FRA 10:02:59 01:03:53 05:23:28 06:32:20 03:30:39 n/a (no Kona Pro race)
55 51 Hilary Hughes IRL 10:04:47 01:13:41 05:22:22 06:41:02 03:23:45 n/a (no Kona Pro race)
56 48 Alexandra Watt USA 10:05:33 01:04:48 05:29:13 06:39:01 03:26:32 n/a (no Kona Pro race)
57 49 Sarah Thomas AUS 10:16:56 01:09:37 05:35:42 06:50:18 03:26:38 n/a (no Kona Pro race)

Kona 2023 Resources

Here is a list of resources for the WPRO race in Kona 2023 (Saturday, October 14th) (click on the thumbnails):

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