Archive | IM Hawaii

Kona 2017 – How the Female Race Unfolded

Here are the results of the top finishers and the athletes that had an influence on the outcome of the FPRO race:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp.
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:53:10 04:53:10 03:00:02 08:50:47 -07:01
2 Lucy Charles GBR 00:48:48 04:58:19 03:08:09 08:59:38 -25:22
3 Sarah Crowley AUS 00:53:07 04:57:51 03:05:36 09:01:38 -27:23
4 Heather Jackson USA 00:57:58 04:53:54 03:06:19 09:02:29 -17:13
5 Kaisa Sali FIN 00:57:53 04:59:50 03:01:33 09:04:40 -12:11
6 Susie Cheetham GBR 00:57:54 05:03:27 03:09:25 09:16:00 -06:53
7 Carrie Lester AUS 00:57:51 05:00:31 03:16:35 09:19:49 -05:33
8 Elizabeth Lyles USA 01:00:08 05:04:10 03:11:21 09:20:31 -10:48
9 Annabel Luxford AUS 00:53:02 04:59:15 03:24:06 09:20:58 -15:10
10 Jocelyn McCauley USA 00:54:31 05:04:34 03:16:41 09:21:08 -20:02
11 Mareen Hufe GER 00:59:04 04:58:06 03:21:17 09:23:11 -14:12
26 Lauren Brandon USA 00:48:53 04:58:53 04:03:26 09:56:03 20:42

Here’s the Race Development Graph for these athletes:

WPRO Major

Race Development

The race at the front can be divided into three distinct phases:

Start to Bike Mile 90

In the swim, Lucy Charles builds a lead of 4.5 minutes and more to the rest of the field. After the swim, Lucy continues to hold on to that lead, with Lauren Brandon in close pursuit. For most of the bike Daniela Ryf (blue line) is closely followed by Sarah Crowley (green line) – their lines overlap and are almost impossible to distinguish. By mile 90 they trail Lucy and Lauren by just over five minutes. Heather Jackson (violet line) is 9 minutes back after the swim and for the first 40 miles of the bike, but then she’s able to make up time to the front. By mile 90 she has closed the gap to Lucy to 6 minutes and is riding just over one minute behind Daniela and Sarah.

Rest of the Bike and Early Run

With about 40k left on the bike (about 25 miles), Daniela decides to take a risk and rides hard for the remainder of the bike. She quickly starts to eat into Lucy’s lead and drops Sarah. At about that time Lucy seems to have a bad patch: Almost everyone in the field is making up time on her between miles 100 and 110. But the fastest athlete in this part of the bike is clearly Daniela, and within the last hour of the bike she turns a 5-minute deficit into a 30 second lead in T2. Once in front, Daniela starts to build her lead – it’s obvious that she’s running faster than Lucy (by mile 5 she has put another two minutes into Lucy) and everyone else is already more than six minutes behind after the early miles of the run.

Last 20 Miles of the Run

After the early part of the run, Daniela has asserted herself as the clear leader of the race, and for the rest of the marathon she just extends her lead. (In the end, she also posts the fastest run split.) Lucy is losing time to the faster runners behind her, but with a new marathon PR of 3:08 she’s able to hold on to second place. Sarah and Heather are within a few seconds of each other for most of the marathon, in the end Sarah claims third place with a gap of only 51 seconds to Heather.

Let’s have a closer look at the Top 11 finishers.

Winner: Daniela Ryf

Once again, Daniela Ryf was able to defend her Kona title – she is now a three-time Kona champion.

2017Daniela

But compared to the last two races, this year was a lot tighter: She won by eight minutes (last year the gap was 24 minutes), and as discussed before she took the lead just before T2 instead of early in the bike as in previous years. Her finish-line demeanour also showed how hard the race was for her: Last year she still had a lot of energy and bounced around, this year she had to lie down and take a breath after crossing the line:

FLOWS Daniela

In the after-race interviews she said that with 40k left on the bike, she felt she needed to take a risk and put out a big bike effort. She said before the race that she trusts her run and is prepared to win the race on the run, and if we take this year’s data, she would have won the race even without the big effort in the last 40k of the bike and the six minutes she was faster than the other top finishers in that part of the race.

So why did she feel the need to take a risk by putting out such a huge effort? I think there are two factors: One is that she wanted to assert herself in the race and start to eat into the lead that has been hovering around five minutes for the whole bike ride, she wanted to show both to herself and others that even though her day was far from perfect she was still the odds-on favorite to win the race. The second – and in my opinion bigger reason – was the number of athletes that were still “racing for the win” that late in the race: Lucy and Lauren were more than five minutes in front of her, she was riding with Sarah Crowley and Annabel Luxford, Heather Jackson was closing the gap to her and was only a minute back, possibly even a strong runner like Kaisa Sali might still have a chance with just four minutes behind. So at this point you probably have five or six athletes other than Daniela with a chance to win the race. Daniela would be the clear favorite in any of these one-on-one matches, but it would take only one of the athletes mentioned to have a magical day to beat Daniela. That would be quite unlikely if it had been just one athlete, but with five or six the chance for that was much much larger.

So Daniela decided to put in a surge, and what a surge it was. Basically she was riding the last 40k of the bike at least six minutes quicker than everyone else in the field. At the start of the run, she had taken the lead over Lucy Charles and put more than five between herself and Sarah Crowley and Heather Jackson – and by then the race was firmly back in Daniela’s control with only a total breakdown as a scenario for her not to win the race. But she did much better: She even posted the fastest run split of the female field, and won her third Kona title in a row.

Second Place: Lucy Charles

Lucy had a great day in Kona – always either leading the race or being in second place:

2017Lucy

It was pretty much expected that Lucy would lead the swim and build a lead to the rest of the female field, she even managed to swim into the second bike male pack. In the FLOWS photo below you can see Lucy in T1 and Sebastian Kienle in the background:

FLOWS Lucy T1

However, it was a surprise to see Lucy ride very strong and hold on to her lead for most of the bike. It took a big effort by Daniela to relegate Lucy to second place in T2, right around the time when Lucy probably had a bad patch (most of the field was making up time on her around mile 110). At the start of the run she had a lead of less than five minutes to Sarah Crowley and Heather Jackson,  and she said herself that she didn’t know if she’d be able to run well when she hit T2. But she ran extremely well, posting another personal best in the marathon (3:08 after running 3:18 in Lanzarote and 3:13 in Frankfurt earlier this year). She hardly lost any time to Sarah and Heather on Ali’i Drive, and less than two minutes in the rest of the marathon, claiming second place in her Kona debut.

Third and Fourth Place: Sarah Crowley and Heather Jackson

Sarah and Heather had a close fight for the last podium spot:

2017SarahHeather

After the swim, Sarah was with the Daniela group, and she continued to ride with Daniela even as the group was dwindling in size. Even a crash after 35 miles wasn’t able to stop her. (She took a short tumble when she was hit by a gust of wind during a bottle grab.) She was only dropping back from Daniela when Dani stepped on the gas at mile 90, after riding with her for a bit she scaled her efforts back a little bit. Heather had a slower swim, but a sub-58 was still an IM swim PR for her, and she was only five minutes back to Daniela (in her first Kona in 2015 it was more than eight minutes). She was also riding strong, and by mile 90 had almost closed the gap to Daniela and her group. By T2 she had ridden up to Sarah and both started the run within seconds of each other – in the following FLOWS picture of Heather at the start of the run you can see Sarah in the background:

FLOWS Heather Run Start

For the first part of the run Sarah said she was still trying to listen to her body if there were any adverse effects of the crash, but she was okay and took the chance to follow Heather while making sure she was well hydrated and fueled. When they entered the Energy Lab, Sarah ran up to Heather and for a while they ran side by side. Heather said after the race that this was her first Ironman that she was racing person-to-person, almost like an Olympic Distance or 70.3 race. Sarah had prepared for the last ten k of the run and started to slightly move ahead of Heather at the top of the Energy Lab, but the gap was never larger than 30 or 40 seconds. Even in the last k Sarah had to push the pace to stay ahead of Heather and was jubilant crossing the finish line in third place.

FLOWS Sarah Finish

Fifth Place: Kaisa Sali

As last year, fifth place went to Kaisa Lehtonen:

2017Kaisa

After the swim Kaisa was in a better position than last year: The gap to Daniela was under five minutes (compared to more than six last year,), but she was also in a better position in the field, just outside of the Top 10. She was also riding really well, hardly losing any more time to Daniela while moving ahead in the field:

FLOWS Kaisa Bike BW

At the start of the run Kaisa was part of a group of four females, about in eighth place, compared to 12th last year. She had a strong start of the run, posting the fastest first half-marathon in the female field, clearly moving onto fifth place shortly after Palani and steadily closing the gap to those in front of her – by mile 20 she was within two minutes of a podium finish. But at that point Sarah and Heather started their fight for a podium finish and held the distance to Kaisa. Kaisa had built a solid gap to sixth place (almost ten minutes at the end of the Energy Lab) and she was probably worked extra hard for a podium finish, but in the end remained in fifth place.

Sixth to Eleventh Place: Susie Cheetham, Carrie Lester, Liz Lyles, Annabel Luxford, Jocelyn McCauley and Mareen Hufe

As usual, the final positions in the Top 10 were close contested (only 3.5 minutes between seventh and eleventh!), with lots of position changes even in the last 15 minutes of racing:

Top6 11

Annabel Luxford (green line) was riding with Daniela and Sarah for most of the bike:

FLOWS Bella Bike

She only started to drop back from the front pack when Daniela put in her effort towards the end of the bike. She was caught by Heather Jackson before T2 but gained one position early in the run when Lauren didn’t have a good run. Bella was running in fifth place, losing time to the front of the race but also to the faster runners behind her. But she fought hard and was still running in sixth at the turnaround in the Energy Lab. In the end she finished ninth, barely holding off tenth place finisher Jocelyn McCauley by ten seconds.

The best runner in the second group of athletes was Susie Cheetham, and she claimed sixth place. Susie had an even race, coming out of the water just ten minutes back and not loosing much more time on the bike. In T2 she was just outside of the Top 10, after five miles of the run on Ali’i Drive she had already gained three spots. Even though she wasn’t running as fast as the Top 5, she continued to move forward in the field, and at the top the Energy Lab (10k to go) she was in sixth place. By then she was ten minutes behind fifth place so a better placing seemed far-fetched, but just two to four minutes ahead of seventh to tenth place. Susie continued to run strong and defended sixth place until the finish, probably satisfied with a successful return to the Top 10 in Kona.

Carrie Lester was among those that finished the bike in front Susie. Carrie was off the bike in ninth place, and while she was running better than many of the athletes starting the run close to her, she wasn’t able to make up many positions and ended up in seventh place, having to fight hard to stay ahead of three athletes finishing less than 80 seconds behind her.

Liz Lyles was closest to Carrie, working hard until crossing the finish line in eighth place, just 42 seconds behind Carrie:

LizLyles

Liz managed to stay in very close proximity to Susie on the bike, starting the run just 2.5 minutes behind in 15th place. Even though Liz had raced (and won!) IM Chattanooga just three weeks before Kona, she was running well (only slightly slower than Susie), climbing all the way into eighth. She gained two spots in the final miles and finished ahead of Bella and Jocelyn by 27 and 37 seconds. She’s also the “first Super-Mom in Kona” (other mothers who finished are Jocelyn in tenth, Rachel Joyce in 20th and Sonja Tajsich in 21st) and the first Pro athlete to secure her Kona 2018 slot.

Jocelyn McCauley finished in tenth place. She said she didn’t have the race she was looking for and felt sluggish most of the day. It’s a testament to her determination that even though she didn’t feel good she continued to race hard and kept herself in the battle for a Top 10 finish. It was only in the final two miles of the run that she loosened up and was able to move into tenth place, barely missing overtaking a few more athletes with her strong finish.

The first female to finish outside the money was Mareen Hufe. Mareen had a great race: Her swim was more than six minutes faster than in her last Kona race in 2015, and her 4:58 bike split was only beaten by Daniela, Heather and Sarah. In T2 she had moved into sixth place, but a couple of faster runners were not too far behind and it was clear that she’d be dropping back. She fought hard for a finish in the money, but two miles before the finish she lost tenth place to Jocelyn. Still, Mareen was the top German female, and eleventh place is her best Kona finish so far.

Photo Credits: Thanks to my friends Ana Borba, Jacques Rangel and Romulo Cruz from FLOWS Journal for allowing me to use their photos. They have a lot more great shots in their Kona gallery. The photo of Liz is by Etienne Van Rensburg. All photos used with permission. Please respect their great work by not reusing the photos without their consent.

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Ironman Hawaii 2017 – Results Analyis

IMHawaii_Logo

Race Conditions

As expected, the swim this year was as quick as in 2016 – an adjustment of -1:04 was almost the same as -1:01 as last year and an indication that the fast swim times from last year weren’t just a fluke. Josh Amberger was pretty close to breaking the 1998 swim record (his 47:09 was 28 seconds off Lars Jorgensen’s time), and Lucy Charles was even closer: She needed another five seconds to equal the 1999 time by Jodi Jackson.

The bike was really fast – the adjustment of 5:16 is one of the quickest ever in Kona and roughly three minutes quicker than the average in Kona. Cameron Wurf was able to set a new bike course record, his 4:12:54 finally broke the 2006 4:18 by Normann Stadler. Lionel Sanders and Sebastian Kienle were also under the old record.

Run conditions were pretty normal for Kona, still Patrick Lange was able to get very close to his own run course record, he missed it by 14 seconds. Patrick also set a new overall course record, his winning time of 8:01:40 was better than 2:16 than Crowie’s time from 2011.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Patrick Lange GER 00:48:45 04:28:53 02:39:59 08:01:40 -09:05 US$ 120,000 8000
2 Lionel Sanders CAN 00:53:41 04:14:19 02:51:53 08:04:07 -29:28 US$ 60,000 7200
3 David McNamee GBR 00:48:40 04:28:55 02:45:30 08:07:11 -22:36 US$ 40,000 6480
4 Sebastian Kienle GER 00:53:44 04:14:57 02:57:11 08:09:59 -03:15 US$ 22,500 5835
5 James Cunnama ZAF 00:49:09 04:21:02 02:56:46 08:11:24 -19:53 US$ 19,000 5250
6 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 00:48:41 04:26:20 02:53:47 08:13:06 -18:35 US$ 16,000 4725
7 Andy Potts USA 00:49:01 04:31:02 02:50:26 08:14:43 -12:23 US$ 14,000 4250
8 Patrik Nilsson SWE 00:48:34 04:29:02 02:55:51 08:18:21 00:19 US$ 12,500 3825
9 Ben Hoffman USA 00:48:52 04:22:00 03:04:16 08:19:26 -08:50 US$ 11,000 3445
10 Boris Stein GER 00:53:48 04:23:59 03:00:42 08:22:24 -09:11 US$ 10,000 3100
11 Ivan Rana ESP 00:48:41 04:39:15 02:52:35 08:24:53 -12:22 2635
12 Bart Aernouts BEL 00:56:19 05:28:53 02:52:57 08:26:28 00:49 2240
13 Thiago Vinhal BRA 00:49:00 04:37:00 02:55:58 08:27:24 -31:31 1900
14 Igor Amorelli BRA 00:48:38 04:25:16 03:08:27 08:27:26 -16:17 1620
15 Tim Van Berkel AUS 00:51:23 04:37:24 02:55:07 08:28:05 -02:12 1375
16 Ruedi Wild SUI 00:51:27 04:37:30 02:54:47 08:28:27 -06:01 1100
17 Cameron Wurf AUS 00:53:49 04:12:54 03:19:28 08:30:29 -10:26 880
18 Marc Duelsen GER 00:51:30 04:39:00 02:58:50 08:33:20 -09:53 705
19 Timothy O’Donnell USA 00:48:38 04:25:10 03:15:55 08:33:53 07:05 565
20 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 00:53:44 04:40:14 02:56:43 08:35:25 00:25 450
21 Harry Wiltshire GBR 00:48:32 04:40:33 03:02:44 08:35:41 -22:02 340
22 Jan Van Berkel SUI 00:50:14 04:38:33 03:05:48 08:38:48 -05:18 340
23 Tim Reed AUS 00:49:02 04:39:38 03:06:54 08:40:11 03:05 340
24 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:49:12 04:36:22 03:10:30 08:40:52 06:17 340
25 Marko Albert EST 00:48:30 04:36:15 03:12:43 08:41:28 06:54 340
26 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:53:09 04:50:12 02:56:15 08:44:09 04:37 340
27 Jesse Thomas USA 00:53:45 04:33:15 03:12:34 08:44:40 13:41 340
28 Giulio Molinari ITA 00:48:47 04:36:51 03:15:48 08:46:38 12:24 340
29 Josh Amberger AUS 00:47:09 04:30:39 03:25:55 08:48:13 08:20 340
30 Braden Currie NZL 00:48:41 04:41:29 03:15:19 08:50:05 18:42 340
31 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:53:47 04:36:28 03:15:47 08:50:30 18:01 235
32 Denis Chevrot FRA 00:48:48 04:36:48 03:22:33 08:52:40 13:27 235
33 Michael Fox AUS 00:48:42 04:53:39 03:11:40 08:57:50 16:44 235
34 Matt Hanson USA 00:51:22 04:40:45 03:23:58 09:02:04 26:54 235
35 Jan Frodeno GER 00:48:27 04:20:59 04:01:57 09:15:44 1:02:53 235
36 Tyler Butterfield BMU 00:48:54 04:35:10 03:56:18 09:27:22 48:00 235
37 Chris McDonald AUS 00:55:43 04:47:02 03:39:35 09:27:22 35:31 235
38 Reinaldo Colucci BRA 00:48:45 04:41:07 04:03:42 09:38:30 55:02 235
39 Patrick Evoe USA 00:56:29 04:36:59 04:00:01 09:38:51 37:22 235
40 Markus Fachbach GER 00:52:03 04:53:22 04:22:25 10:14:34 1:32:01 235
41 Kaito Tohara JPN 01:19:49 06:16:51 04:42:39 12:30:16 3:27:24 155
Nils Frommhold GER 00:48:56 04:21:46 DNF
Frederik Van Lierde BEL 00:48:52 04:29:56 DNF
Michael Weiss AUT 00:58:19 04:31:18 DNF
Ivan Tutukin RUS 00:48:45 04:50:32 DNF
David Plese SLO 00:56:26 04:47:06 DNF
Nick Kastelein AUS 00:48:29 DNF
Pete Jacobs AUS 00:48:39 DNF
Brent McMahon CAN 00:48:43 DNF
Joe Gambles AUS 00:48:57 DNF
David Dellow AUS 00:48:58 DNF
Cyril Viennot FRA 00:49:08 DNF
Matthew Russell USA 00:53:44 DNF
Kirill Kotshegarov EST 00:56:32 DNF

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:53:10 04:53:10 03:00:02 08:50:47 -07:01 US$ 120,000 8000
2 Lucy Charles GBR 00:48:48 04:58:19 03:08:09 08:59:38 -25:22 US$ 60,000 7200
3 Sarah Crowley AUS 00:53:07 04:57:51 03:05:36 09:01:38 -27:23 US$ 40,000 6480
4 Heather Jackson USA 00:57:58 04:53:54 03:06:19 09:02:29 -17:13 US$ 22,500 5835
5 Kaisa Sali FIN 00:57:53 04:59:50 03:01:33 09:04:40 -12:11 US$ 19,000 5250
6 Susie Cheetham GBR 00:57:54 05:03:27 03:09:25 09:16:00 -06:53 US$ 16,000 4725
7 Carrie Lester AUS 00:57:51 05:00:31 03:16:35 09:19:49 -05:33 US$ 14,000 4250
8 Elizabeth Lyles USA 01:00:08 05:04:10 03:11:21 09:20:31 -10:48 US$ 12,500 3825
9 Annabel Luxford AUS 00:53:02 04:59:15 03:24:06 09:20:58 -15:10 US$ 11,000 3445
10 Jocelyn McCauley USA 00:54:31 05:04:34 03:16:41 09:21:08 -20:02 US$ 10,000 3100
11 Mareen Hufe GER 00:59:04 04:58:06 03:21:17 09:23:11 -14:12 2635
12 Maja Stage Nielsen DEN 01:00:10 05:08:10 03:12:51 09:25:38 -07:20 2240
13 Linsey Corbin USA 01:00:07 05:07:38 03:13:10 09:26:12 -02:21 1900
14 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 00:58:45 05:07:29 03:16:51 09:28:40 04:49 1620
15 Laura Siddall GBR 00:57:55 05:02:57 03:24:17 09:29:51 -00:55 1375
16 Corinne Abraham GBR 01:04:09 05:05:31 03:16:50 09:30:37 01:18 1100
17 Asa Lundstroem SWE 01:04:54 05:02:35 03:22:32 09:34:37 00:37 880
18 Haley Chura USA 00:52:03 05:10:47 03:29:21 09:37:31 02:15 705
19 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 00:57:56 05:12:21 03:25:34 09:40:46 06:56 565
20 Rachel Joyce GBR 00:53:15 05:07:46 03:36:14 09:42:12 16:26 450
21 Sonja Tajsich GER 01:05:00 05:17:47 03:14:50 09:43:26 09:15 340
22 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 01:04:58 05:19:03 03:15:57 09:45:51 -02:06 340
23 Celine Schaerer SUI 00:53:01 05:20:48 03:29:42 09:48:45 03:56 340
24 Astrid Stienen GER 01:00:10 05:16:59 03:31:48 09:53:58 17:50 340
25 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 01:00:18 05:12:28 03:36:41 09:54:20 06:48 340
26 Lauren Brandon USA 00:48:53 04:58:53 04:03:26 09:56:03 20:42 340
27 Alexandra Tondeur BEL 01:00:17 05:18:31 03:40:39 10:04:47 23:23 340
28 Katharina Grohmann GER 01:13:50 05:06:49 03:53:55 10:19:03 18:45 340
Anja Beranek GER 00:57:00 05:04:36 DNF
Leanda Cave GBR 00:53:18 05:19:39 DNF
Nikki Bartlett GBR 00:58:03 05:17:40 DNF
Sarah Piampiano USA 01:04:57 05:13:20 DNF
Alicia Kaye USA 00:53:04 05:28:06 DNF
Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:57:01 05:24:14 DNF
Jodie Robertson USA 01:04:56 05:19:24 DNF
Jeanne Collonge FRA 01:05:05 05:26:52 DNF
Diana Riesler GER 01:03:25 05:30:10 DNF
Camilla Pedersen DEN 00:53:13 DNF

Results of the 2017 Ho’ala Swim

The Ho’ala swim is held exactly one week before the Kona race on the swim course. It is used by a lot of athletes as an excellent open-water training session, the table below shows just the Kona Pros that I have been able to identify in the results, comparing their times in this year’s swim, their expected swim times for this years Ironman race (plus the difference, usually faster) and the same results (as long as they are available) for last year’s Ho’ala swim and Ironman Hawaii swim.

Some observations:

  • Last year’s swim times were considerably faster than what was normal for Kona, apparently because the buoys marking the turnaround point have been re-positioned. This year’s Ho’ala swim times are comparable to those we have seen last year, so we can expect some fast swim times again for this year.
  • While most athletes swam faster than their seeding times (not surprising for the shorter event), some went considerably quicker: Lionel Sanders, Patrick Evoe, Heather Jackson, Astrid Stienen, Mareen Hufe, Dimity-Lee Duke and Sarah Piampiano were more five minutes quicker than their seed times – great confidence boost for their Kona race!
  • Eneko Llanos, Camilla Pedersen, Michi Herlbauer and Dimity-Lee Duke were more than one minute quicker than last year’s Ho’ala swim – certainly a good indicator for their swim form!
  • A number of athletes also swam faster than in their Kona race last year – most notably Lionel Sanders who was four minutes quicker and Dimity-Lee Duke who was three minutes quicker. But some of the female favorites (Heather Jackson, Kaisa Sali, Sarah Piampiano) also put up great times .. lots of new fodder for speculations!
Athlete Swim Swim Seeding Faster By 2016 Ho’ala Swim Kona 2016 Swim
Harry Wiltshire 00:48:44 00:50:37 01:53 00:48:00
Lucy Charles 00:48:48 00:51:11 02:23 00:48:55
Tim Don 00:48:55 00:50:43 01:48 00:49:33 00:48:15
Igor Amorelli 00:48:57 00:50:49 01:52 00:49:23 00:48:08
Eneko Llanos 00:49:02 00:51:44 02:42 00:50:28 00:48:56
Daniel Fontana 00:49:06 00:52:02 02:56
Thiago Vinhal 00:49:47 00:52:54 03:07
Camilla Pedersen 00:52:13 00:55:11 02:58 00:53:48 00:52:50
Alicia Kaye 00:52:17 00:55:16 02:59 00:52:49
Marc Duelsen 00:52:20 00:54:42 02:22
Matt Hanson 00:52:23 00:55:33 03:10
Kyle Buckingham 00:52:26 00:52:56 00:30 00:52:17
Lionel Sanders 00:52:37 00:58:35 05:58 00:56:41
Matthew Russell 00:53:39 00:58:00 04:21 00:53:43 00:54:02
Patrick Evoe 00:53:42 00:59:02 05:20
Michael Weiss 00:55:36 00:58:04 02:28 00:54:07 00:54:03
Jocelyn McCauley 00:55:41 01:00:10 04:29
Michaela Herlbauer 00:55:49 01:00:10 04:21 00:57:26 00:58:22
Kaisa Sali 00:56:04 01:00:16 04:12 00:58:55
David Plese 00:56:05 00:55:53 -00:12 00:52:33
Heather Jackson 00:56:06 01:01:48 05:42 00:58:56
Melissa Hauschildt 00:57:38 00:59:46 02:08 00:58:54
Astrid Stienen 00:57:52 01:03:15 05:23
Mareen Hufe 00:58:28 01:04:17 05:49
Dimity-Lee Duke 00:58:48 01:03:51 05:03 01:00:07 01:01:49
Linsey Corbin 00:59:55 01:02:30 02:35 01:01:52
Sarah Piampiano 01:00:07 01:06:32 06:25 01:00:56 01:02:42

Kona Heatmaps

I’m using a five-level system to show an athlete’s strength and weaknesses compared to the best athletes in the field. Here is compact way to look at the data, showing the whole field in a “heatmap”. In these graphs, a darker red corresponds to more stars (faster/better chances), white is equal to no stars. This post contains three different heat maps each for the men and women: Sorted by bib numbers, sorted by expected swim and sorted by expected time in T2. This gives you a quick look at where the favorites are expected at the different points in the race and if swim or T2 leaders are likely to play a big role in the final results.

Each of the heatmaps is “clickable”, this will give you access to higher-res version of the heatmaps.

Men

Sorted by Bib Number:

Sorted by Expected Swim:

Sorted by Expected T2 Time:

Women

Sorted by Bib Number:

Sorted by Expected Swim:

Sorted by Expected T2 Time:

Ironman Hawaii 2017 (Oct 14th) – Seedings

IMHawaii_LogoThis is an excerpt from my “Kona Rating Report“, a 120+ page with tons of information about the race, all Professional participants and their chances on October 14th. Get some more information about the report in this post or go straight to download your copy here (donations appreciated).

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:14:17 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:09:30
2006 Normann Stadler (GER) 08:11:56 Michellie Jones (AUS) 09:18:31
2007 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:15:34 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 09:08:45
2008 Craig Alexander (AUS) 08:17:45 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 09:06:23
2009 Craig Alexander (AUS) 08:20:21 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:54:02
2010 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:10:37 Mirinda Carfrae (AUS) 08:58:36
2011 Craig Alexander (AUS) 08:03:56 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:55:08
2012 Pete Jacobs (AUS) 08:18:37 Leanda Cave (GBR) 09:15:54
2013 Frederik Van Lierde (BEL) 08:12:29 Mirinda Carfrae (AUS) 08:52:14
2014 Sebastian Kienle (GER) 08:14:18 Mirinda Carfrae (AUS) 09:00:55
2015 Jan Frodeno (GER) 08:14:40 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 08:57:57
2016 Jan Frodeno (GER) 08:06:30 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 08:46:46

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jan Frodeno GER 00:48:02 04:29:00 02:45:34 08:06:30
2 Sebastian Kienle GER 00:52:27 04:23:55 02:49:03 08:10:02
3 Patrick Lange GER 00:48:57 04:37:49 02:39:45 08:11:14

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:52:50 04:52:26 02:56:51 08:46:46
2 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 00:56:44 05:10:54 02:58:20 09:10:30
3 Heather Jackson USA 00:58:56 05:00:31 03:07:48 09:11:32

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:03:56 Craig Alexander 2011-10-15
Swim overall 00:46:41 Lars Jorgensen 1998-10-03
Bike overall 04:18:23 Normann Stadler 2006-10-21
Run overall 02:39:45 Patrick Lange 2016-10-08
Total female 08:46:46 Daniela Ryf 2016-10-08
Swim female 00:48:43 Jodi Jackson 1999-10-16
Bike female 04:44:19 Karin Thuerig 2011-10-15
Run female 02:50:26 Mirinda Carfrae 2014-10-11

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Hawaii is – 02:33.

Race Adjustments for IM Hawaii

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 05:05 -04:16 05:49 -02:33 119 of 135 05:05 -04:16 05:49 -02:33
2006 01:06 -05:02 04:39 -03:50 118 of 138 03:06 -04:39 05:14 -03:12
2007 02:52 -03:28 00:49 01:23 110 of 134 03:01 -04:15 03:45 -01:40
2008 -00:16 -03:21 -00:15 -00:04 109 of 145 02:12 -04:02 02:45 -01:16
2009 -10:29 -03:21 -00:13 -06:33 114 of 148 -00:20 -03:54 02:10 -02:20
2010 00:34 -03:36 02:51 -01:44 95 of 113 -00:11 -03:51 02:17 -02:14
2011 00:48 -04:15 05:47 -00:18 61 of 82 -00:03 -03:54 02:47 -01:57
2012 -08:56 -04:32 -01:46 00:43 65 of 83 -01:09 -03:59 02:13 -01:37
2013 00:46 -03:12 04:11 -00:44 68 of 85 -00:57 -03:54 02:26 -01:31
2014 -03:28 -04:15 01:53 00:06 68 of 88 -01:12 -03:56 02:23 -01:22
2015 -11:57 -04:13 03:39 -06:29 64 of 94 -02:10 -03:57 02:30 -01:49
2016 -06:47 -01:01 01:07 -03:25 79 of 99 -02:33 -03:43 02:23 -01:57

As you can see, the 2016 swim adjustment of -1:01 is considerably faster (or maybe “less slow”) than the overall swim rating of -3:43. Apparently, this was caused by moving the turnaround markers which have have shifted over the years. Therefore, it is likely that this year’s swim times will be a bit faster than in previous years and that most athletes will swim faster than the expected times (which are based on the slower swim rating).

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Hawaii is a P-8000 race. It has a total prize purse of 650.000 US$, paying ten deep.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 101% of a typical Kona field.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. T2 Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Jan Frodeno GER 08:05:06 07:58:16 00:49:36 04:25:03 05:19:40 02:45:26 100% +0% -0% (3) 1
2 2 Sebastian Kienle GER 08:08:57 08:04:24 00:53:37 04:19:41 05:18:17 02:50:40 100% +0% -0% (5) 2
3 5 Patrick Lange GER 08:09:21 08:08:50 00:50:43 04:32:07 05:27:50 02:41:31 100% +0% -0% (1) (3)
4 26 Patrik Nilsson SWE 08:12:30 08:15:57 00:51:09 04:31:13 05:27:22 02:45:08 n/a (no Kona Pro race) 5
5 6 Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:15:03 08:19:34 00:50:25 04:27:43 05:23:08 02:51:55 15% +67% -18% (6) 8
6 3 Ben Hoffman USA 08:16:17 08:21:15 00:51:19 04:27:32 05:23:51 02:52:26 11% +58% -30% (7) 11
7 9 Tim Don GBR 08:16:53 08:18:42 00:50:43 04:27:09 05:22:52 02:54:01 38% +0% -62% (2) 7
8 31 Brent McMahon CAN 08:18:28 08:14:28 00:50:36 04:29:27 05:25:03 02:53:25 38% +0% -62% (2) 4
9 18 Bart Aernouts BEL 08:19:05 08:18:32 00:55:48 04:30:23 05:31:11 02:47:54 74% +0% -26% (5) 6
10 25 Nils Frommhold GER 08:19:11 08:21:03 00:51:12 04:28:14 05:24:26 02:54:45 38% +0% -62% (2) 10
11 14 Andy Potts USA 08:19:47 08:20:09 00:50:00 04:31:52 05:26:52 02:52:55 100% +0% -0% (8) 9
12 10 Boris Stein GER 08:20:11 08:24:31 00:56:40 04:25:06 05:26:46 02:53:25 49% +51% -0% (3) 21
13 7 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:21:30 08:22:02 00:50:58 04:29:17 05:25:15 02:56:15 72% +0% -28% (9) 13
14 28 Tyler Butterfield BMU 08:21:58 08:36:30 00:51:32 04:29:50 05:26:21 02:55:37 10% +29% -61% (5) 66
15 19 James Cunnama ZAF 08:22:24 08:24:22 00:51:52 04:29:29 05:26:22 02:56:02 78% +0% -22% (4) 19
16 15 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 08:22:53 08:24:45 00:50:24 04:29:00 05:24:24 02:58:29 3% +2% -95% (4) 22
17 16 David McNamee GBR 08:23:38 08:22:56 00:50:44 04:40:27 05:36:12 02:47:26 100% +0% -0% (2) 14
18 20 Nick Kastelein AUS 08:23:47 08:24:27 00:50:53 04:32:59 05:28:52 02:54:55 n/a (no Kona Pro race) 20
19 12 Matt Hanson USA 08:24:06 08:27:33 00:55:33 04:35:57 05:36:30 02:47:36 0% +0% -100% (1) 31
20 45 Ivan Rana ESP 08:24:13 08:30:09 00:50:55 04:39:33 05:35:28 02:48:45 100% +0% -0% (4) 40
21 22 Braden Currie NZL 08:24:23 08:28:58 00:50:32 04:37:03 05:32:35 02:51:48 n/a (no Kona Pro race) 37
22 23 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:25:34 08:30:04 00:55:45 04:32:35 05:33:21 02:52:13 63% +1% -36% (11) 39
23 21 Josh Amberger AUS 08:26:08 08:42:45 00:49:31 04:28:15 05:22:45 03:03:23 n/a (no Kona Pro race) (84)
24 32 Ivan Tutukin RUS 08:26:19 08:27:03 00:51:09 04:46:12 05:42:22 02:43:57 n/a (no Kona Pro race) (27)
25 30 Lionel Sanders CAN 08:26:47 08:26:47 00:58:35 04:25:37 05:29:12 02:57:35 100% +0% -0% (2) 25
26 38 Tim Van Berkel AUS 08:26:51 08:23:08 00:50:56 04:38:32 05:34:28 02:52:23 69% +0% -31% (3) 15
27 51 Jesse Thomas USA 08:27:09 08:23:36 00:54:39 04:32:45 05:32:24 02:54:45 100% +0% -0% (1) 16
28 34 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:27:21 08:28:36 00:53:36 04:33:36 05:32:12 02:55:09 60% +40% -0% (6) 36
29 27 Joe Gambles AUS 08:27:51 08:28:22 00:51:52 04:36:08 05:33:00 02:54:51 14% +0% -86% (3) 34
30 33 David Dellow AUS 08:28:04 08:24:12 00:50:58 04:34:47 05:30:46 02:57:18 100% +0% -0% (2) 18
31 36 Marko Albert EST 08:28:32 08:27:14 00:49:47 04:33:31 05:28:19 03:00:13 93% +0% -7% (5) 28
32 17 Matthew Russell USA 08:28:38 08:36:31 00:58:00 04:32:10 05:35:09 02:53:29 20% +80% -0% (5) 67
33 59 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:28:45 08:27:16 00:51:44 04:29:00 05:25:44 03:03:01 77% +0% -23% (11) 29
34 37 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 08:31:00 08:32:50 00:54:13 04:41:33 05:40:47 02:50:13 100% +0% -0% (1) 51
35 46 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 08:31:19 08:32:03 00:57:05 04:31:30 05:33:36 02:57:43 96% +0% -4% (2) 46
36 24 Tim Reed AUS 08:31:22 08:29:47 00:51:58 04:34:14 05:31:13 03:00:09 -0% +27% -73% (2) 38
37 35 Michael Weiss AUT 08:31:35 08:32:45 00:58:04 04:26:57 05:30:02 03:01:33 96% +0% -4% (6) 50
38 29 Ruedi Wild SUI 08:32:06 08:27:19 00:51:31 04:37:43 05:34:14 02:57:52 100% +0% -0% (1) 30
39 41 David Plese SLO 08:32:21 08:33:49 00:55:53 04:34:10 05:35:03 02:57:18 63% +0% -37% (3) 53
40 11 Pete Jacobs AUS 08:32:52 08:54:22 00:50:14 04:37:06 05:32:19 03:00:33 -0% +33% -67% (8) 129
41 53 Giulio Molinari ITA 08:33:40 08:31:54 00:52:20 04:31:29 05:28:49 03:04:51 n/a (no Kona Pro race) 45
42 54 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:33:43 08:31:44 00:50:14 04:40:13 05:35:27 02:58:16 62% +0% -38% (2) 44
43 49 Cameron Wurf AUS 08:34:07 08:38:52 00:53:23 04:23:55 05:22:18 03:11:49 n/a (no Kona Pro race) 74
44 8 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:34:24 08:32:10 00:52:56 04:37:00 05:34:57 02:59:27 0% +0% -100% (3) 47
45 55 Michael Fox AUS 08:35:07 08:38:40 00:50:30 04:40:09 05:35:38 02:59:29 n/a (no Kona Pro race) 72
46 52 Markus Fachbach GER 08:35:25 08:33:55 00:53:05 04:36:45 05:34:51 03:00:34 18% +0% -82% (2) 54
47 44 Jan Van Berkel SUI 08:35:46 08:36:48 00:52:06 04:36:47 05:33:53 03:01:53 0% +0% -100% (2) 69
48 39 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:37:30 08:36:35 00:50:49 04:34:45 05:30:34 03:06:56 27% +0% -73% (4) 68
49 47 Reinaldo Colucci BRA 08:37:31 08:35:20 00:50:48 04:38:24 05:34:12 03:03:19 100% +0% -0% (1) 60
50 50 Daniel Fontana ITA 08:37:33 08:35:48 00:52:02 04:40:25 05:37:27 03:00:06 13% +0% -87% (4) 62
51 42 Marc Duelsen GER 08:38:35 08:41:09 00:54:42 04:40:16 05:39:59 02:58:36 n/a (no Kona Pro race) 80
52 58 Chris McDonald AUS 08:43:40 08:49:06 00:55:58 04:38:46 05:39:44 03:03:56 11% +0% -89% (2) 99
53 43 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:49:29 08:55:46 00:50:37 04:47:51 05:43:28 03:06:01 27% +0% -73% (2) 136
54 40 Thiago Vinhal BRA 08:49:33 08:57:06 00:52:54 04:51:33 05:49:26 03:00:07 n/a (no Kona Pro race) 141
55 56 Kaito Tohara JPN 08:51:37 09:03:02 00:57:06 04:53:06 05:55:11 02:56:26 n/a (no Kona Pro race) 162
56 48 Patrick Evoe USA 08:53:58 08:53:21 00:59:02 04:41:16 05:45:19 03:08:39 0% +0% -100% (1) 125

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 96% of a typical Kona field.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. T2 Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 101 Daniela Ryf SUI 08:49:21 08:42:55 00:55:03 04:49:17 05:49:19 03:00:02 100% +0% -0% (3) 1
2 113 Rachel Joyce GBR 09:09:10 09:17:35 00:55:39 05:01:53 06:02:32 03:06:38 90% +10% -0% (7) 10
3 105 Heather Jackson USA 09:10:43 09:12:04 01:01:48 04:57:45 06:04:33 03:06:10 62% +38% -0% (2) 4
4 103 Kaisa Sali FIN 09:11:30 09:09:12 01:00:16 05:04:08 06:09:24 03:02:06 100% +0% -0% (1) 3
5 108 Anja Beranek GER 09:15:54 09:22:06 00:55:12 04:57:20 05:57:32 03:18:22 74% +0% -26% (3) 22
6 133 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 09:16:12 09:15:51 00:59:46 05:02:51 06:07:37 03:08:35 0% +0% -100% (1) 8
7 107 Susie Cheetham GBR 09:16:39 09:15:04 00:57:26 05:08:07 06:10:33 03:06:06 38% +0% -62% (2) 7
8 118 Lucy Charles GBR 09:18:10 09:22:59 00:51:11 05:01:50 05:58:01 03:20:09 n/a (no Kona Pro race) 23
9 106 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:18:16 09:20:01 00:55:28 05:02:51 06:03:19 03:14:57 91% +9% -0% (5) 13
10 117 Carrie Lester AUS 09:18:56 09:17:30 00:58:02 05:03:46 06:06:48 03:12:08 100% +0% -0% (2) 9
11 104 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:20:28 09:22:04 01:06:32 05:03:13 06:14:45 03:05:43 65% +35% -0% (3) 21
12 121 Camilla Pedersen DEN 09:22:20 09:20:16 00:55:11 05:03:44 06:03:55 03:18:25 100% +0% -0% (2) 14
13 102 Sarah Crowley AUS 09:23:03 09:21:24 01:00:17 05:02:34 06:07:52 03:15:11 100% +0% -0% (1) 18
14 122 Asa Lundstroem SWE 09:23:11 09:25:55 01:04:24 05:04:34 06:13:58 03:09:13 100% +0% -0% (3) 28
15 115 Laura Siddall GBR 09:23:25 09:28:23 01:01:33 05:00:50 06:07:23 03:16:02 n/a (no Kona Pro race) 36
16 110 Linsey Corbin USA 09:23:40 09:20:35 01:02:30 05:07:33 06:15:03 03:08:37 99% +1% -1% (10) 16
17 123 Corinne Abraham GBR 09:24:04 09:21:18 01:03:10 05:07:01 06:15:11 03:08:53 100% +0% -0% (1) 17
18 136 Jocelyn McCauley USA 09:24:18 09:39:01 01:00:10 05:11:06 06:16:16 03:08:02 n/a (no Kona Pro race) 49
19 132 Diana Riesler GER 09:25:15 09:26:00 01:01:47 05:00:51 06:07:38 03:17:37 0% +0% -100% (1) 31
20 112 Elizabeth Lyles USA 09:25:23 09:23:26 01:00:30 05:09:12 06:14:42 03:10:41 54% +0% -46% (4) 24
21 126 Sonja Tajsich GER 09:27:13 09:25:59 01:06:21 05:04:42 06:16:04 03:11:09 57% +0% -43% (5) 30
22 114 Annabel Luxford AUS 09:27:52 09:28:15 00:54:51 05:03:10 06:03:01 03:24:51 38% +0% -62% (2) 35
23 119 Astrid Stienen GER 09:28:42 09:27:47 01:03:15 05:03:26 06:11:42 03:17:00 0% +0% -100% (1) 34
24 124 Maja Stage Nielsen DEN 09:29:04 09:36:23 01:03:16 05:06:28 06:14:44 03:14:20 n/a (no Kona Pro race) (45)
25 138 Haley Chura USA 09:30:15 09:27:09 00:53:45 05:11:41 06:10:26 03:19:49 27% +0% -73% (2) 33
26 109 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 09:30:33 09:25:40 01:00:10 05:12:39 06:17:49 03:12:44 100% +0% -0% (1) 27
27 111 Leanda Cave GBR 09:31:04 09:31:04 00:54:50 05:09:06 06:08:56 03:22:08 30% +5% -65% (10) 38
28 128 Mareen Hufe GER 09:31:42 09:29:28 01:04:17 05:00:45 06:10:02 03:21:40 77% +0% -23% (3) 37
29 130 Lauren Brandon USA 09:32:25 09:32:38 00:51:22 05:08:34 06:04:56 03:27:29 n/a (no Kona Pro race) 40
30 116 Jodie Robertson USA 09:33:48 09:32:45 01:06:48 05:11:52 06:23:40 03:10:08 100% +0% -0% (1) (41)
31 120 Alexandra Tondeur BEL 09:36:34 09:32:54 01:03:55 05:14:28 06:23:23 03:13:11 100% +0% -0% (1) 41
32 134 Celine Schaerer SUI 09:40:00 09:42:18 00:54:46 05:18:04 06:17:50 03:22:10 n/a (no Kona Pro race) 57
33 127 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 09:40:11 09:39:11 01:03:51 05:11:55 06:20:46 03:19:25 100% +0% -0% (2) 50
34 131 Alicia Kaye USA 09:41:20 09:37:25 00:55:16 05:12:00 06:12:15 03:29:05 100% +0% -0% (1) 47
35 125 Kristin Moeller GER 09:41:46 09:41:10 01:07:55 05:24:54 06:37:49 03:03:57 100% +0% -0% (4) 56
36 129 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 09:44:08 09:39:43 01:04:50 05:16:01 06:25:52 03:18:16 0% +0% -100% (1) 53
37 140 Jeanne Collonge FRA 09:45:30 09:54:08 01:03:16 05:10:12 06:18:28 03:27:02 n/a (no Kona Pro race) 78
38 139 Nikki Bartlett GBR 09:46:49 09:48:22 01:04:44 05:10:53 06:20:37 03:26:12 n/a (no Kona Pro race) 70
39 135 Katharina Grohmann GER 09:52:30 09:57:31 01:15:38 05:15:43 06:36:20 03:16:10 n/a (no Kona Pro race) 81

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