IM Philippines – TriRating

Ironman Philippines 2018 – Analyzing Results

June 3, 2018

Course Conditions

As expected, IM Philippines was a tough course, taking a lot out of the athletes. Especially the run was extremely slow, the adjustment of -4:25 was even harder than Kona.

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to exp.	Prize Money	KPR Points
1	Nick Baldwin	SEY	00:55:07	04:45:43	03:03:47	08:50:13	-09:12	US$ 5,000	2000
2	Cameron Brown	NZL	00:55:48	04:53:38	03:01:49	08:56:49	31:54	US$ 2,750	1600
3	Simon Cochrane	NZL	00:51:14	04:54:00	03:07:11	08:58:58	10:21	US$ 1,750	1280
4	Eneko Elosegui	ESP	01:00:00	04:57:41	03:32:02	09:35:38	-01:19	US$ 1,250	960
5	August Benedicto	PHI	01:08:49	05:07:37	03:27:03	09:48:46	n/a	US$ 1,000	720
6	Freddy Lampret	ZAF	00:55:12	04:59:33	03:50:33	09:51:21	-02:02	US$ 750	540
7	Benjamin Rana	PHI	01:04:52	05:14:57	03:46:39	10:13:01	n/a		405
8	Philip Duenas	PHI	01:17:24	05:46:48	03:16:37	10:27:34	n/a		305
9	Jonard Saim	PHI	01:00:09	05:30:07	04:40:52	11:17:49	n/a		230
10	Arland Macasieb	PHI	01:06:40	06:04:03	04:35:28	12:03:30	1:25:44		170

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to exp.	Prize Money	KPR Points
1	Liz Blatchford	AUS	00:53:01	05:03:45	03:19:17	09:22:22	05:31	US$ 5,000	2000
2	Dimity-Lee Duke	AUS	01:00:22	05:05:47	03:23:21	09:40:45	00:08	US$ 2,750	1600
3	Simone Maier	GER	01:07:02	05:02:04	03:31:18	09:47:39	-09:17	US$ 1,750	1280
4	Julia Grant	NZL	01:01:00	05:25:01	03:25:05	09:57:09	-12:47	US$ 1,250	960
5	Alise Selsmark	AUS	00:56:16	05:36:16	03:34:24	10:13:48	19:03	US$ 1,000	720
6	Jana Candrova	CZE	01:08:32	05:47:56	04:13:50	11:19:29	42:04	US$ 750	540
7	Erin Furness	NZL	01:04:01	05:42:58	04:28:04	11:21:30	55:47		405
8	Alexandra Ganzon	PHL	01:11:21	05:41:06	04:19:58	11:21:30	n/a		305

Kona Qualifying Implications

Here are where the top finishers now are with regards to Kona qualifying:

Safe (for a July slot): Cameron Brown (but unclear if he will take the slot)
Close (but more points needed – cutoff projected at 4.400 for the females and 3.500 for the males):
Liz Blatchford (3.535), Simon Cochrane (3.105), Nick Baldwin (2.720)

Among the female athletes further back, Dimity-Lee Duke has the most points (2.660 from four races), she probably needs another 2.000 points result to be in the running for a slot.

Ironman Philippines 2018 (June 3rd) – Seedings

May 16, 2018

IMPHI_Logo This is the first race on this course.

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Philippines is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 25.000 US$, paying 6 deep.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 2% of a typical Kona field.

#	Bib	Name	Nat	Expected	Rating	ESwim	EBike	ET2	ERun	Consistency	Overall
1	12	Mike Phillips	NZL	08:22:03	08:27:21	00:49:33	04:33:06	05:27:38	02:54:25	66% +34% -0% (3)	33
2	1	Cameron Brown	NZL	08:24:38	08:23:48	00:51:02	04:40:57	05:37:00	02:47:38	70% +7% -23% (36)	24
3	15	Fredrik Croneborg	SWE	08:34:15	08:37:09	00:51:05	04:43:41	05:39:46	02:54:29	64% +14% -22% (14)	70
4	8	Daniil Sapunov *	UKR	08:42:14	08:48:22	00:48:35	04:49:30	05:43:05	02:59:09	68% +7% -25% (10)	108
5	3	Simon Cochrane	NZL	08:45:43	08:52:45	00:50:21	04:47:14	05:42:35	03:03:08	55% +26% -19% (22)	125
6	4	Guy Crawford	NZL	08:58:02	09:10:21	00:50:05	04:39:15	05:34:19	03:23:43	43% +25% -32% (16)	184
7	2	Nick Baldwin	SEY	08:59:44	09:03:42	00:53:09	04:48:58	05:47:07	03:12:37	58% +0% -42% (21)	163
8	14	Freddy Lampret	ZAF	09:32:39	09:58:05	00:54:20	05:01:10	06:00:31	03:32:08	21% +9% -71% (13)	279
9	5	Eneko Elosegui	ESP	09:34:22	09:41:30	01:00:39	04:59:32	06:05:11	03:29:11	71% +7% -22% (20)	264
10	7	Arland Macasieb	PHI	10:25:17	10:48:23	01:05:42	05:28:44	06:39:26	03:45:51	23% +0% -77% (12)	(300)
11	6	Aleksander Kochetkov *	LTU	10:55:28	11:11:58	01:09:07	05:43:54	06:58:01	03:57:27	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(302)
12	11	Daniel Brown	AUS	11:00:25	11:16:56	01:05:18	05:47:53	06:58:10	04:02:15	45% +0% -55% (4)	302
13	13	Marek Nemcik	SVK	11:17:25	11:56:30	01:13:25	05:37:40	06:56:05	04:21:20	32% +24% -44% (45)	305

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 9% of a typical Kona field.

#	Bib	Name	Nat	Expected	Rating	ESwim	EBike	ET2	ERun	Consistency	Overall
1	37	Liz Blatchford *	AUS	09:16:02	09:15:41	00:51:47	05:12:20	06:09:07	03:06:55	93% +7% -0% (9)	(8)
2	33	Dimity-Lee Duke	AUS	09:40:24	09:45:12	00:59:50	05:15:07	06:19:58	03:20:26	65% +8% -27% (15)	53
3	32	Laurel Wassner	USA	09:42:19	09:50:28	00:54:44	05:22:10	06:21:54	03:20:25	64% +9% -28% (13)	71
4	38	Camilla Lindholm Borg *	SWE	09:42:26	09:48:08	01:06:51	05:13:54	06:25:45	03:16:41	74% +10% -16% (19)	60
5	34	Saleta Castro Nogueira *	ESP	09:48:17	09:49:07	00:55:43	05:29:33	06:30:16	03:18:01	78% +15% -6% (16)	67
6	31	Alise Selsmark *	AUS	09:56:26	10:11:27	00:53:57	05:31:28	06:30:24	03:26:02	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(105)
7	30	Simone Maier	GER	09:58:02	10:01:39	01:06:15	05:19:41	06:30:56	03:27:06	75% +3% -22% (9)	(85)
8	36	Julia Grant	NZL	10:04:41	10:14:46	01:00:01	05:32:10	06:37:11	03:27:30	52% +31% -17% (9)	110
9	39	Shiao-yu Li	TWN	10:05:34	10:11:47	01:05:45	05:28:26	06:39:10	03:26:24	55% +8% -36% (17)	106
10	28	Kate Bevilaqua	AUS	10:12:32	10:18:17	00:56:32	05:28:19	06:29:52	03:42:40	29% +3% -68% (31)	114
11	29	Erin Furness	NZL	10:22:14	10:30:33	01:03:13	05:38:16	06:46:29	03:35:45	75% +7% -18% (7)	(131)
12	35	Jana Candrova	CZE	10:33:55	10:45:34	01:07:01	05:39:54	06:51:55	03:42:00	72% +0% -28% (19)	145

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

This race looks like a duel between the New Zealanders Cam Brown and Mile Philipps, but Frederik Croneborg is often racing well in the tough Asian heat and humidity.

Cameron Brown: 42% (1-1)
Mike Phillips: 39% (2-1)
Fredrik Croneborg: 14% (6-1)

Female Race Participants

Based on her previous results, Liz Blatchford has to be considered the clear favorite, even if this would be her first Ironman after giving birth to daughter Mahli.

Liz Blatchford: 82% (1-1)
Laurel Wassner: 5% (18-1)
Dimity-Lee Duke: 5% (21-1)
Camilla Lindholm Borg: 4% (22-1)
Saleta Castro Nogueira: 3% (36-1)