PTO Championship

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to exp.	Prize Money
1	Paula Findlay	CAN	00:25:01	01:51:13	01:06:25	03:24:55	-14:56	US$ 100,000
2	Anne Haug	GER	00:25:55	01:54:26	01:05:01	03:27:32	-08:08	US$ 70,000
3	Laura Philipp	GER	00:26:55	01:53:11	01:07:23	03:30:00	-07:22	US$ 50,000
4	Holly Lawrence	GBR	00:24:58	01:55:38	01:08:26	03:31:09	-00:16	US$ 35,000
5	Amelia Watkinson	NZL	00:25:57	01:55:06	01:08:38	03:31:50	-08:02	US$ 30,000
6	Skye Moench	USA	00:26:04	01:54:18	01:09:44	03:32:30	-05:41	US$ 25,000
7	Fenella Langridge	GBR	00:24:54	01:55:17	01:11:10	03:33:42	-10:52	US$ 23,000
8	Sara Svensk	SWE	00:26:52	01:54:10	01:11:06	03:35:00	-07:41	US$ 20,000
9	Elisabetta Curridori	ITA	00:27:43	01:56:32	01:08:17	03:35:07	-14:24	US$ 18,000
10	Nicola Spirig	SUI	00:24:59	01:59:42	01:08:23	03:35:11	-04:50	US$ 17,000
11	Alissa Doehla	USA	00:26:10	01:58:35	01:07:33	03:35:17	-09:15	US$ 15,000
12	Emma Pallant	GBR	00:25:59	01:57:01	01:09:51	03:35:47	-03:23	US$ 13,000
13	Kimberley Morrison	GBR	00:26:53	01:51:24	01:15:55	03:36:31	-10:11	US$ 11,000
14	Manon Genet	FRA	00:27:15	01:56:54	01:10:01	03:36:35	-07:05	US$ 10,000
15	Jodie Stimpson	GBR	00:24:59	02:00:39	01:08:48	03:36:38	02:20	US$ 9,000
16	Nikki Bartlett	GBR	00:27:47	01:54:14	01:12:47	03:37:14	-08:15	US$ 8,000
17	Jeanni Seymour	ZAF	00:25:00	01:58:43	01:11:18	03:37:23	-02:56	US$ 7,000
18	India Lee	GBR	00:25:29	01:56:15	01:13:49	03:37:58	-02:42	US$ 6,000
19	Jackie Hering	USA	00:26:49	01:55:58	01:12:51	03:38:19	00:26	US$ 5,000
20	Heather Jackson	USA	00:29:11	01:55:51	01:11:35	03:38:41	00:27	US$ 4,000
21	Judith Corachan Vaquera	ESP	00:26:14	01:57:20	01:12:44	03:38:46	-06:58	US$ 2,500
22	Lesley Smith	USA	00:27:21	02:02:16	01:06:39	03:39:20	-02:03	US$ 2,500
23	Carrie Lester	AUS	00:26:03	01:55:38	01:14:37	03:39:42	-03:47	US$ 2,500
24	Sarah Crowley	AUS	00:26:02	01:56:57	01:14:56	03:40:33	04:58	US$ 2,500
25	Emma Bilham	SUI	00:26:24	01:59:02	01:12:50	03:41:00	-07:10	US$ 2,500
26	Pamella Oliveira	BRA	00:25:03	01:54:40	01:19:02	03:41:05	-00:44	US$ 2,500
27	Lauren Brandon	USA	00:24:24	01:55:32	01:18:49	03:41:17	-10:42	US$ 2,500
28	Lucy Hall	GBR	00:24:16	01:55:07	01:20:45	03:42:18	-05:12	US$ 2,500
29	Danielle Lewis	USA	00:32:20	01:55:19	01:13:13	03:43:08	-06:32	US$ 2,500
30	Gurutze Frades Larralde	ESP	00:31:10	01:59:06	01:10:17	03:43:28	-06:52	US$ 2,500
31	Renee Kiley	AUS	00:29:12	01:54:21	01:17:58	03:44:40	-10:57	US$ 2,500
32	Rach McBride	CAN	00:27:43	01:56:52	01:17:26	03:44:58	-01:00	US$ 2,500
33	Amelie Kretz	CAN	00:25:25	02:01:52	01:16:37	03:46:07	n/a	US$ 2,500
34	Lisa Becharas	USA	00:27:47	01:57:14	01:19:00	03:46:52	-07:44	US$ 2,500
35	Jennifer Spieldenner	USA	00:25:23	02:01:02	01:19:13	03:48:12	02:28	US$ 2,500
36	Michelle Vesterby	DEN	00:26:55	01:58:52	01:19:59	03:48:47	-03:30	US$ 2,500
37	Kelsey Withrow	USA	00:25:56	02:00:24	01:19:37	03:48:47	00:01	US$ 2,500
38	Agnieszka Jerzyk	POL	00:26:57	02:04:15	01:17:50	03:51:24	08:19	US$ 2,500
39	Kristin Liepold	GER	00:35:22	02:08:23	01:09:20	03:57:24	03:18	US$ 2,500
40	Angela Naeth	CAN	00:30:57	01:59:42	01:24:56	03:58:21	16:22	US$ 2,500
	Lisa Norden	SWE	00:25:02	01:51:04		DNF
	Carolin Lehrieder	GER	00:26:00			DNF
	Katrina Matthews	GBR	00:27:45			DNF
	Ruth Astle	GBR	00:30:24			DNF

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to exp.	Prize Money
1	Gustav Iden	NOR	00:23:44	01:41:02	00:58:16	03:05:06	-03:25	US$ 100,000
2	Matt Hanson	USA	00:24:40	01:41:44	00:57:21	03:05:57	-12:29	US$ 70,000
3	George Goodwin	GBR	00:24:47	01:39:34	00:59:29	03:06:09	-12:53	US$ 50,000
4	Lionel Sanders	CAN	00:25:54	01:38:30	00:59:46	03:06:16	-04:06	US$ 35,000
5	Rudy Von Berg	USA	00:23:41	01:39:31	01:01:27	03:06:41	-06:33	US$ 30,000
6	Sam Appleton	AUS	00:23:14	01:39:58	01:01:34	03:06:58	-07:35	US$ 25,000
7	Henri Schoeman	ZAF	00:22:25	01:42:15	01:00:30	03:07:16	-09:36	US$ 23,000
8	Vincent Luis	FRA	00:22:28	01:41:53	01:01:05	03:07:21	n/a	US$ 20,000
9	Sam Long	USA	00:25:55	01:38:23	01:01:05	03:07:28	-10:40	US$ 18,000
10	Andreas Dreitz	GER	00:24:42	01:39:18	01:01:23	03:07:45	-09:14	US$ 17,000
11	Javier Gomez	ESP	00:22:30	01:44:31	00:58:49	03:07:51	-05:09	US$ 15,000
12	Thomas Davis	GBR	00:22:35	01:40:57	01:02:18	03:07:57	-14:19	US$ 13,000
13	Florian Angert	GER	00:22:42	01:40:41	01:02:42	03:08:14	-07:41	US$ 11,000
14	Magnus Elbaek Ditlev	DEN	00:24:54	01:38:12	01:03:29	03:08:57	-04:04	US$ 10,000
15	Adam Bowden	GBR	00:22:38	01:43:02	01:01:16	03:09:16	-08:14	US$ 9,000
16	Timothy O’Donnell	USA	00:23:17	01:40:14	01:04:48	03:10:15	-05:42	US$ 8,000
17	Frederic Funk	GER	00:23:47	01:40:17	01:04:04	03:10:34	-07:09	US$ 7,000
18	Pieter Heemeryck	BEL	00:24:03	01:41:08	01:03:38	03:10:45	-03:48	US$ 6,000
19	Chris Leiferman	USA	00:25:51	01:42:46	01:00:13	03:10:58	-07:12	US$ 5,000
20	Ben Kanute	USA	00:22:33	01:42:02	01:04:47	03:11:21	-05:29	US$ 4,000
21	Cody Beals	CAN	00:24:59	01:43:39	01:00:52	03:11:42	-08:57	US$ 2,500
22	Andy Potts	USA	00:23:20	01:42:05	01:04:35	03:12:28	-06:18	US$ 2,500
23	Ruedi Wild	SUI	00:24:05	01:45:21	01:01:06	03:13:03	-04:01	US$ 2,500
24	Jackson Laundry	CAN	00:24:51	01:45:28	01:00:44	03:13:17	-03:30	US$ 2,500
25	Boris Stein	GER	00:25:07	01:39:35	01:06:28	03:13:24	-05:04	US$ 2,500
26	Joe Gambles	AUS	00:23:50	01:44:38	01:03:00	03:13:47	-03:42	US$ 2,500
27	Thomas Steger	AUT	00:24:02	01:44:12	01:03:07	03:13:56	-04:40	US$ 2,500
28	Michael Weiss	AUT	00:26:33	01:42:09	01:02:47	03:14:26	-01:52	US$ 2,500
29	Jason West	USA	00:23:19	01:47:57	01:01:21	03:14:52	-03:05	US$ 2,500
30	Jonathan Brownlee	GBR	00:22:30	01:43:05	01:07:47	03:15:12	n/a	US$ 2,500
31	Eneko Llanos	ESP	00:25:04	01:45:27	01:02:38	03:15:41	-07:01	US$ 2,500
32	David Plese	SLO	00:25:12	01:46:31	01:02:03	03:16:29	-08:02	US$ 2,500
33	Justin Metzler	USA	00:23:58	01:46:12	01:04:20	03:16:41	-05:00	US$ 2,500
34	James Cunnama	ZAF	00:25:57	01:43:05	01:05:53	03:17:13	00:02	US$ 2,500
35	Bradley Weiss	ZAF	00:24:45	01:45:55	01:05:12	03:18:18	01:17	US$ 2,500
36	Igor Amorelli	BRA	00:24:40	01:46:10	01:08:03	03:21:16	07:21	US$ 2,500
37	Matthew Russell	USA	00:29:49	01:41:57	01:07:21	03:21:51	00:57	US$ 2,500
38	Ben Hoffman	USA	00:24:55	01:51:34	01:05:30	03:24:37	10:29	US$ 2,500
39	Eric Lagerstrom	USA	00:23:16	01:49:03	01:11:26	03:26:08	08:59	US$ 2,500
40	Nils Frommhold	GER	00:23:20	01:53:16	01:07:31	03:26:38	07:06	US$ 2,500
41	Kieran Lindars	GBR	00:24:38	01:55:40	01:05:41	03:29:13	03:36	US$ 2,500
42	Taylor Reid	CAN	00:24:44	01:46:54	01:15:09	03:29:17	07:09	US$ 2,500
43	Philipp Koutny	SUI	00:25:06	01:47:58	01:13:59	03:29:29	06:55	US$ 2,500
44	Kristian Hogenhaug	DEN	00:25:02	01:40:09	01:27:58	03:35:50	17:04	US$ 2,500
45	Andre Lopes	BRA	00:23:50	02:07:19	01:05:51	03:39:29	18:48	US$ 2,500
46	Jesper Svensson	SWE	00:22:53	02:03:39	01:11:30	03:40:25	19:39	US$ 2,500
	Alistair Brownlee	GBR	00:22:29	01:40:58		DNF
	Andrea Salvisberg	SUI	00:22:27			DNF
	Morgan Pearson	USA	00:22:31			DNF
	Matthew McElroy	USA	00:22:34			DNF
	Daniel Baekkegard	DEN	00:22:40			DNF
	Sebastian Kienle	GER	00:24:51			DNF
	Tim Don	GBR	00:24:53			DNF
	Andi Boecherer	GER	00:25:00			DNF

For this Sunday’s races in Daytona I’ve put together a one-page “Daytona Cheat Sheet” about who and what to look for during the race.

Based on my seedings for Daytona, it’s interesting to have a look at how the race might unfold and what to look for at various points of the coverage.

Of course all data-based predictions have some limitations: First of all, some athletes have never raced at the half-distance – so even if Vincent Luis and Jonny Brownlee are likely going to play big roles in the race, I can’t really data-predict how they will be able to do in Daytona. Next, the data predictions don’t take into account how race dynamics will impact an athlete’s behavior in the race. With small differences, athletes will probably stay together, usually because some athletes swim, ride or run just slightly faster to stay with someone else. Then, especially some young athletes have made lots of progress from season to season and it’s difficult to properly assess their current capability. And of course there is also a “2020-special factor” when a lot of athletes had to take a long break because of Covid, and some of them haven’t raced at all in 2020 before Daytona.

So even with all these caveats and the “limited time and space” meaning we can’t discuss the chances of every athlete on the Daytona start line, I hope that the following discussion gives you a good indication of what to look for during the race .. and to quickly spot when something unexpected happens.

Women’s Race

Here’s the expected race development graph for most of the female contenders (click on the graph for a hi-res version):

Swim

• Lucy Hall and Lauren Brandon are two very strong swimmers in the field who will likely battle for the lead into T1. On paper, I have Lucy ahead by nine seconds – which is of course too close to make a solid prediction. Maybe Jodie Stimpson will be able to hold on to the feet of Lucy and Lauren.
• Among the rest of the field, Holly Lawrence is probably the strongest swimmer, and it’ll be interesting to see if she is able to swim away from the other contenders, maybe even staying with the front group.
• The rest of the contenders will do their best not to let Holly get a gap from the start. With Pamella Oliveira, Jen Spieldenner, Nicola Spirig, India Lee, Paula Findlay and Meredith Kessler there are quite a few experienced women who usually come out at the front of other races. They will probably try to stay with Holly, probably meaning that the swim pace will be “on” from the gun. On paper, this group would lose about 2 minutes to the swim leaders.
• When the athletes enter T1, look how much time the strong bike riders such as Lisa Norden, Sarah Crowley (based on seed times about 2 1/2 to 3 minutes slower in the swim) and maybe Heather Jackson (4 1/2 minutes) are behind – a good swim with a smaller gap to the front can boost their chances for a good result. Another interesting athlete to look for after the swim is Kona winner Anne Haug: She will mainly shine on the run, but a good swim (on paper 3 minutes behind in T1) and catching a good bike group will be part of her plan.

Early Bike

• The main question at the front of the race will be how long it’s going to take Holly to work her way into the lead and who can stay with her. Last year, Lisa Norden and Paula Findlay rode hard at the start of the bike to catch up to swim leader Lucy Charles (unfortunately not racing this year). After they caught up to her the group of three were watching each other and stayed together – maybe this year Holly will be able to break away from the others?
• Behind the lead group, will there be a “chase group” and who will be in that group? Or will the 20-meter draft rule in Daytona lead to a splintered field?

Into T2

• On paper, Holly should be the strongest athlete on the bike, so the question will be if she can ride away from the other good swimmers and if any of the strong bike riders will be able to make up time to her.
• If a “chase group” forms, will Nicola Spirig or Jackie Hering (slower bike riders on paper) be able to stay with them? Will Heather Jackson be able to make up time and ride up to them?
• Here’s a look at some of the main contenders and their bike capabilities (without any tactical considerations and group dynamics):
  • baseline: Holly Lawrence (well under 2 hours, probably around 1:57 for the 80k bike course)
  • + 1minute: Lisa Norden
  • + 2 minutes: Heather Jackson, Sarah Crowley, Amelia Watkinson, Paula Findley, maybe Jodie Stimpson
    (with just one 70.3 race – a second place at 70.3 Bahrain 2019 behind Holly – it’s difficult to predict how Jodie is going to perform in Daytona)
  • + 3 minutes: Skye Moench, Laura Philipp
  • + 5 minutes: Anne Haug, Lauren Brandon
  • + 7 minutes: Lucy Hall
  • + 8 minutes: Nicola Spirig
    (Nicola will be an interesting one, I wouldn’t be surprised to see her ride much faster than in her previous races where she didn’t race a field of the Daytona caliber)

Run

• If things go according to plan for Holly, she should already have a solid gap in T2. Except for Anne Haug, no one should be able to put more than two minutes into her on the run. Anne would need to be within five minutes of Holly to still have a shot at winning, but even if she’s further back she’ll still be running for a podium finish.
• The strong swim/bikers such as Lucy Hall, Lauren Brandon, or Lisa Norden will need a great day to not be overtaken by the faster runners.
• Here’s a look at the run capabilities of the main contenders:
  • – 5 minutes: Anne Haug
  • – 2 minutes: Nicola Spirig, Jackie Hering
  • baseline: Holly Lawrence, Laura Philipp (probably around 1:10 for the 18k run course)
  • + 1 minute: Sarah Crowley, Jodie Stimpson
  • + 2 minutes: Heather Jackson, Paula Findlay, Amelia Watkinson
  • + 9 minutes (and more): Lisa Norden, Lucy Hall, Lauren Brandon

Men’s Race

Here’s the expected race development graph for a selection of the male contenders (click on the graph for a hi-res version):

Swim

• The swim is probably going to be dominated by the fast ITU athletes racing Daytona, most notably Henri Schoeman. He’s often leading the swims in ITU races, and if he goes hard in the swim he should be able to put at least a few seconds into other Olympic Distance racers such as Jonny Brownlee or Vincent Luis (who are racing their first longer race and are therefore “unseeded”) and probably a bit more into the ones moving “back and forth” between distances, such Ali Brownlee, Javier Gomez or Ben Kanute.
• The longer-distance athletes such as Sam Appleton, Rudy Von Berg or Pieter Heemeryck are probably going to be around 90 seconds behind after the swim.
• A few more notable athletes are going to be further back: Gustav Iden and Magnus Ditlev will lose a bit more time (probably just over two minutes), but the field could be deep enough for just one large group.
• As is typical for them, Sebastian Kienle and Lionel Sanders will start “from behind” after the swim, according to the seedings they will have to make up around four minutes on the bike.

Early Bike

• Even if there are going to be a few seconds between the fastest swimmers, we will likely see a bigger “lead group” with Henri Schoeman, Alistair Brownlee, Javier Gomez, Sam Appleton, Ben Kanute, probably also Vincent Luis and Jonny Brownlee and maybe a few others. Who will set the pace in that group, and who will struggle to stay with the group?
• There are two more athletes that you should follow in the early parts of the bike: Gustav Iden and Magnus Ditlev might be able to make up time to the front group. Will they also drag other athletes with them?
• Lionel Sanders and Sebastian Kienle will also want to ride up to the front group – but their larger gap after the swim means that it’ll take them a good while longer to close the gap. Sam Long could be another athlete that starts to make up ground after losing some time in the swim.

Into T2

• Will someone such as Magnus Ditlev be able to ride away from the lead group? Or will Ali Brownlee and the others keep the group more or less together? With the flat and fast bike course in Daytona it is unlikely that there are going to be multiple bike groups such as on the mountain course at 70.3 Worlds in Nice last year.
• How well will the ITU athletes be able to ride on the longer distance? The flat course in Daytona will demand them to ride in the aero position for most of the 80k bike – a position that they might not be as accustomed to as the athletes with more experience on the longer distances. Watch for signs of being uncomfortable in the aero position, such as moving around on the saddle.
• You can expect some hard efforts to drop athletes in the last quarter of the bike ride when maybe their concentration starts to slip a bit. If Lionel and/or Sebi are able to ride up to the front group, watch for the pace to pick up even more when they work their way through the group.
• Here’s a look at some of the main contenders and their bike capabilities (without any tactical considerations and group dynamics):
  • – 2 minutes: Magnus Ditlev, Lionel Sanders
  • – 1 minute: Gustav Iden, Sebastian Kienle
  • baseline: Alistair Brownlee, Sam Appleton (around 1:45)
  • +1 minute: Rudy Von Berg, Pieter Heemeryck
  • + 3 minutes: Javier Gomez, Henri Schoeman
  • (Please note that Vincent Luis and Jonny Brownlee are unseeded as they haven’t yet raced longer than Olympic Distance.)

Run

• Even if it’s hard to predict who is going to run well in Daytona, you can expect the pace to be extra-hard coming out of T2. Everyone will want to impress with their run speed. Gustav Iden would like to show that Daytona is going to be a repeat of his win at 70.3 Worlds in Nice, while Javier and Ali will want to show that they can run faster than in Nice or South Africa 2018 (when Jan Frodeno was able to gap them). I expect the winner to run under an hour for the 18k run course in Daytona.
• Where are the ITU athletes at the start of the run, and how well will they be able to run, especially beyond the 10k mark? It won’t be a surprise to see “unseeded” Vincent Luis and Jonny Brownlee fight for the win or finish on the podium.
• Which athletes from the bike lead group will be able to run well? Some of the 70.3 specialists such as Rudy Von Berg or Pieter Heemeryck would love to battle it out with “the ITU group” at the front but will likely lose some time to them.
• What will Lionel and Sebi be able to do on the run? Sebi has run well in Nice (second fastest run split behind Gustav) and Lionel is always ready to work extra hard on the run – as evidenced by his run duel with Pablo Dapena in last year’s Daytona race.
• Here’s a look at the run capabilities of the main contenders:
  • – 2 minutes: Gustav Iden
  •  baseline: Alistair Brownlee, Javier Gomez, Lionel Sanders (around 1:02)
  • + 1:30 minutes: Sebastian Kienle, Rudy Von Berg
  • + 2:30 minutes: Pieter Heemeryck, Sam Appleton
  • + 4 minutes: Magnus Ditlev
  • (Please note that Vincent Luis and Jonny Brownlee are unseeded as they haven’t yet raced longer than Olympic Distance.)

If you want to follow the race, you can get more details and sign up for the live stream.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2018	Pieter Heemeryck (BEL)	02:27:45	Sarah Haskins (USA)	02:42:52
2019	Lionel Sanders (CAN)	02:23:02	Paula Findlay (CAN)	02:38:47

Last Race’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Lionel Sanders	CAN	00:23:15	01:14:54	00:42:51	02:23:02
2	Pablo Dapena Gonzalez	ESP	00:20:44	01:17:22	00:43:31	02:23:32
3	Jason West	USA	00:20:46	01:21:26	00:43:19	02:27:32

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Paula Findlay	CAN	00:22:49	01:25:01	00:48:52	02:38:47
2	Lucy Charles-Barclay	GBR	00:21:40	01:26:14	00:49:50	02:39:48
3	Lisa Norden	SWE	00:22:50	01:25:01	00:53:45	02:43:50

Prize Money

Challenge Daytona has a total prize purse of 1.115.000 US$, paying 60 deep.

Estimated Time Plan

The following table shows the time plan for the race start and the estimated times for the first athlete in the transition zones or across the finish line. The estimates are based on the local start time and my time estimates, these times can change based on how fast or slow the race ends up:

What	Est. Racetime	Est. Local Time
Female Pro Start		10:00 am
First Female in T1	00:23:23	10:23 am
First Female in T2	02:23:53	12:23 pm
Female Winner	03:34:48	1:34 pm
Male Pro Start		2:00 pm
First Male in T1	00:25:32	2:25 pm
First Male in T2	02:09:23	4:09 pm
Male Winner	03:10:07	5:10 pm

Daytona is on Eastern Standard Time, 5 hours behind of UTC. Here are the conversions to a few other time zones:

• + 14 hours: Melbourne (AEDT), races start on Monday at 2am and 6am
• +5 hours: United Kingdom (GMT), races start at 3pm and 7pm
• + 6 hours: Central Europe (CET), races start at 4pm and 8 pm
• +/- 0 hours: US East Coast (EST), races start at 10am and and 2pm
• – 3 hours: US West Coast (PST), races start at 7am and 11 am

A “Technical Note” on Predicted Times

In previous years, Challenge Daytona was contested on a distance of 1.6k swim, 60k bike, and 13k run. Obviously, this is very different from the normal 70.3 distances, but even so it is obvious that the course is very fast. Take for example the bike time of Lionel Sanders: Scaling up his 1:14:54 (from a 60k bike) to a “normal” 70.3 distance of 90k, you get a 1:52:21 – a few minutes faster than the fastest times on “legitimate” 70.3 courses or about the same as the fastest bike time on the known-to-be-somewhat-short 70.3 Dubai. Similarly, Paula Findley and Lisa Norden rode a 1:25:01 last year which equals a 2:07:31. (For comparison, Imogen Simmonds rode a 2:06:58 when she won in Dubai.)

But it’s tricky to transfer the times from last year to this year’s PTO Championship which will be a 2k swim, 80k bike, and 18k run. The swim and run times can probably just be linearly scaled from the regular distances, but what about the bike? As discussed above, the flat, fast Daytona course is likely to have a big impact on the bike times. Continuing to use Lionel as an example, scaling down his 70.3 bike rating (2:07:48) to 80k, we’d get a 1:53 while his 2019 time (scaled to 80k = 1:40) is only 90% of that. Of course there will be some speed differences between riding 60k, 80k and 90k, but coming up with an exact number is next to impossible with the limited amount of data there is. (For those interested, I’m speeding up the scaled 80k bike times to 92% which gives Lionel an expected bike time of 1:43:29.)

All of this goes to show that the times shown in the seedings below have to be taken with an even larger grain of salt than for other races. But I think they still provide some value in that the order of the athletes and – probably as important – the time difference between the athletes should be pretty stable (at least for those with a decent number of 70.3s) and give a good indication of how the race might unfold when everyone is racing with their “paper form”. For example, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Magnus Ditlev to ride through the field on the bike. Even then, numbers can’t predict what is going to happen when he rides past Alistair Brownlee or Gustav Iden and if Ali is going to stay with him (or trust his much better run). Similarly, on the women’s side Holly Lawrence should ride away from the rest of the field on the bike, possibly building a large enough lead for the run. But there are a few ladies in the field who have raced well in 2020 – for example Lisa Norden has posted the fastest bike split in all her 2020 races (and consistently outperformed my predictions), and at IM Florida four weeks before Daytona, Renee Kiley, Ruth Astle, Skye Moench and Kat Matthews have ridden splits of 4:32 to 4:36 over a flat 180k bike course – even if they don’t ride at a much faster speed they’d be under the two-hour-mark in Daytona.

Male Race Participants

#	Bib	Name	Nat	Expected	ESwim	EBike	ET2	ERun
1	54	Gustav Iden	NOR	03:11:13	00:25:39	01:44:48	02:12:27	00:58:46
2	1	Alistair Brownlee	GBR	03:12:50	00:24:27	01:45:30	02:11:57	01:00:53
3	3	Lionel Sanders	CAN	03:14:31	00:27:43	01:43:29	02:13:12	01:01:19
4	7	Javier Gomez	ESP	03:15:31	00:24:06	01:48:46	02:14:52	01:00:39
5	53	Magnus Elbaek Ditlev	DEN	03:16:37	00:25:59	01:43:24	02:11:23	01:05:14
6	5	Rudy Von Berg	USA	03:16:56	00:25:05	01:46:54	02:13:59	01:02:57
7	2	Sebastian Kienle	GER	03:16:59	00:27:17	01:45:06	02:14:23	01:02:36
8	14	Sam Appleton	AUS	03:17:18	00:24:56	01:45:50	02:12:46	01:04:32
9	9	Pieter Heemeryck	BEL	03:18:12	00:25:14	01:47:13	02:14:27	01:03:45
10	18	Daniel Baekkegard	DEN	03:18:58	00:24:29	01:49:15	02:15:44	01:03:14
11	17	Florian Angert	GER	03:19:01	00:24:47	01:47:40	02:14:27	01:04:34
12	8	Timothy O’Donnell	USA	03:19:09	00:24:58	01:47:14	02:14:12	01:04:57
13	16	Maurice Clavel	GER	03:19:10	00:25:19	01:47:22	02:14:41	01:04:29
14	56	Henri Schoeman	ZAF	03:19:16	00:23:23	01:48:58	02:14:21	01:04:55
15	24	Igor Amorelli	BRA	03:19:28	00:25:15	01:45:03	02:12:18	01:07:10
16	26	Ben Kanute	USA	03:19:41	00:24:38	01:47:19	02:13:57	01:05:44
17	32	Sam Long	USA	03:19:53	00:28:16	01:45:08	02:15:24	01:04:29
18	34	Adam Bowden	GBR	03:20:09	00:24:43	01:51:26	02:18:09	01:02:00
19	25	Andi Boecherer	GER	03:20:10	00:25:40	01:47:04	02:14:44	01:05:26
20	10	Andreas Dreitz	GER	03:20:29	00:26:35	01:46:29	02:15:04	01:05:25
21	29	Bradley Weiss	ZAF	03:20:42	00:25:48	01:49:42	02:17:30	01:03:12
22	27	Frederic Funk	GER	03:20:43	00:25:20	01:47:36	02:14:56	01:05:47
23	36	Ruedi Wild	SUI	03:20:46	00:25:20	01:49:54	02:17:14	01:03:32
24	4	Ben Hoffman	USA	03:20:47	00:26:08	01:48:12	02:16:20	01:04:27
25	11	Michael Weiss	AUT	03:20:58	00:28:42	01:47:20	02:18:02	01:02:56
26	49	Chris Leiferman	USA	03:21:01	00:27:28	01:46:58	02:16:26	01:04:35
27	13	Matt Hanson	USA	03:21:04	00:28:29	01:44:45	02:15:14	01:05:50
28	44	Tim Don	GBR	03:21:07	00:25:32	01:48:43	02:16:15	01:04:52
29	28	Andy Potts	USA	03:21:13	00:25:04	01:49:30	02:16:34	01:04:39
30	40	Joe Gambles	AUS	03:21:13	00:26:08	01:48:28	02:16:36	01:04:37
31	35	Jackson Laundry	CAN	03:21:15	00:26:48	01:47:50	02:16:38	01:04:37
32	31	George Goodwin	GBR	03:21:24	00:26:04	01:50:31	02:18:35	01:02:49
33	50	James Cunnama	ZAF	03:21:33	00:27:00	01:48:44	02:17:44	01:03:49
34	12	Bart Aernouts	BEL	03:21:40	00:28:37	01:47:31	02:18:08	01:03:32
35	52	Jason West	USA	03:21:42	00:25:39	01:50:49	02:18:28	01:03:14
36	39	Thomas Steger	AUT	03:22:14	00:26:34	01:50:37	02:19:11	01:03:03
37	41	Boris Stein	GER	03:22:29	00:27:54	01:47:31	02:17:25	01:05:04
38	15	Cody Beals	CAN	03:22:37	00:26:54	01:48:48	02:17:42	01:04:55
39	43	Eric Lagerstrom	USA	03:22:44	00:24:48	01:49:28	02:16:16	01:06:28
40	42	Thomas Davis	GBR	03:22:48	00:24:43	01:51:28	02:18:11	01:04:37
41	20	Andrew Starykowicz	USA	03:23:17	00:26:07	01:46:42	02:14:49	01:08:28
42		Cameron Wurf	AUS	03:23:38	00:27:27	01:46:17	02:15:44	01:07:54
43	30	Eneko Llanos	ESP	03:23:54	00:25:33	01:52:19	02:19:52	01:04:02
44	37	Nils Frommhold	GER	03:24:32	00:25:27	01:48:21	02:15:48	01:08:44
45	48	Justin Metzler	USA	03:24:35	00:25:54	01:51:04	02:18:58	01:05:37
46	23	Matthew Russell	USA	03:26:01	00:29:15	01:48:07	02:19:22	01:06:39
47	33	Kristian Hogenhaug	DEN	03:26:31	00:26:33	01:47:38	02:16:11	01:10:20
48	45	Taylor Reid	CAN	03:26:39	00:26:51	01:51:17	02:20:08	01:06:31
49	46	Jesper Svensson	SWE	03:27:27	00:25:02	01:51:34	02:18:36	01:08:51
50	51	Andre Lopes	BRA	03:27:54	00:26:47	01:52:00	02:20:47	01:07:07
51	22	Philipp Koutny	SUI	03:28:05	00:26:48	01:52:18	02:21:06	01:06:59
52	38	David Plese	SLO	03:28:10	00:27:53	01:51:45	02:21:38	01:06:32
53	55	Kieran Lindars	GBR	03:30:31	00:24:42	01:56:30	02:23:12	01:07:19
54	59	Andrea Salvisberg	SUI	04:05:05	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated
	57	Jonathan Brownlee	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated
	58	Vincent Luis	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated
	60	Morgan Pearson	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated
	61	Matthew McElroy	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated

Female Race Participants

#	Bib	Name	Nat	Expected	ESwim	EBike	ET2	ERun
1	102	Holly Lawrence	GBR	03:35:44	00:26:19	01:57:34	02:25:53	01:09:51
2	101	Anne Haug	GER	03:37:46	00:28:29	02:02:28	02:32:57	01:04:49
3	150	Jodie Stimpson	GBR	03:39:02	00:25:57	02:00:07	02:28:04	01:10:58
4	108	Paula Findlay	CAN	03:41:23	00:27:27	02:00:19	02:29:46	01:11:37
5	100	Sarah Crowley	AUS	03:41:31	00:28:39	01:59:58	02:30:37	01:10:54
6	105	Laura Philipp	GER	03:41:59	00:29:42	02:00:51	02:32:33	01:09:26
7	110	Amelia Watkinson	NZL	03:42:02	00:27:57	02:00:08	02:30:05	01:11:57
8	152	Nicola Spirig	SUI	03:42:05	00:27:25	02:05:21	02:34:46	01:07:19
9	111	Jackie Hering	USA	03:42:42	00:29:02	02:03:30	02:34:32	01:08:10
10	104	Heather Jackson	USA	03:43:20	00:30:12	01:59:43	02:31:55	01:11:25
11	115	Emma Pallant	GBR	03:43:23	00:29:21	02:03:15	02:34:36	01:08:47
12	112	Jeanni Seymour	ZAF	03:43:50	00:27:47	02:02:43	02:32:30	01:11:20
13	106	Skye Moench	USA	03:43:52	00:29:42	02:00:27	02:32:09	01:11:43
14	130	Katrina Matthews	GBR	03:44:29	00:29:20	02:02:32	02:33:52	01:10:37
15	153	Anneke Jenkins	NZL	03:44:40	00:27:38	02:04:55	02:34:33	01:10:07
16	127	India Lee	GBR	03:44:49	00:27:25	02:02:13	02:31:38	01:13:11
17	113	Sara Svensk	SWE	03:45:18	00:31:07	02:01:44	02:34:51	01:10:27
18	119	Lesley Smith	USA	03:45:30	00:29:13	02:04:51	02:36:04	01:09:26
19	117	Meredith Kessler	USA	03:45:58	00:27:29	02:03:33	02:33:02	01:12:56
20	129	Pamella Oliveira	BRA	03:46:08	00:26:54	02:02:11	02:31:05	01:15:03
21	135	Lisa Norden	SWE	03:47:10	00:27:58	01:59:18	02:29:16	01:17:54
22	103	Carrie Lester	AUS	03:47:16	00:28:25	02:02:29	02:32:54	01:14:22
23	123	Manon Genet	FRA	03:47:26	00:30:09	02:03:05	02:35:14	01:12:12
24	137	Alissa Doehla	USA	03:47:40	00:29:48	02:03:21	02:35:09	01:12:31
25	131	Fenella Langridge	GBR	03:47:45	00:27:48	02:05:19	02:35:07	01:12:38
26	118	Agnieszka Jerzyk	POL	03:48:54	00:28:44	02:03:57	02:34:41	01:14:13
27	138	Nikki Bartlett	GBR	03:48:54	00:30:39	02:03:11	02:35:50	01:13:04
28	121	Kimberley Morrison	GBR	03:49:05	00:29:29	02:00:11	02:31:40	01:17:25
29	116	Judith Corachan Vaquera	ESP	03:49:44	00:28:41	02:05:31	02:36:12	01:13:32
30	133	Angela Naeth	CAN	03:49:48	00:31:32	02:00:37	02:34:09	01:15:39
31	144	Lucy Hall	GBR	03:49:51	00:25:32	02:04:12	02:31:44	01:18:07
32	140	Jennifer Spieldenner	USA	03:50:14	00:27:02	02:05:54	02:34:56	01:15:18
33	141	Elisabetta Curridori	ITA	03:50:31	00:29:55	02:05:44	02:37:39	01:12:52
34	134	Rach McBride	CAN	03:50:51	00:28:43	02:02:58	02:33:41	01:17:10
35	139	Emma Bilham	SUI	03:51:24	00:28:38	02:06:10	02:36:48	01:14:36
36	154	Ruth Astle	GBR	03:51:47	00:32:18	02:04:17	02:38:35	01:13:12
37	128	Lauren Brandon	USA	03:52:00	00:25:41	02:02:37	02:30:18	01:21:42
38	142	Kelsey Withrow	USA	03:52:18	00:27:56	02:05:42	02:35:38	01:16:40
39	145	Danielle Lewis	USA	03:53:45	00:36:33	02:02:06	02:40:39	01:13:06
40	120	Carolin Lehrieder	GER	03:53:59	00:28:59	02:07:07	02:38:06	01:15:53
41	114	Gurutze Frades Larralde	ESP	03:55:13	00:34:26	02:08:15	02:44:41	01:10:32
42	146	Renee Kiley	AUS	03:56:06	00:30:42	02:02:50	02:35:32	01:20:34
43	125	Michelle Vesterby	DEN	03:56:50	00:28:11	02:07:11	02:37:22	01:19:28
44	126	Lisa Roberts	USA	03:57:41	00:33:24	02:08:24	02:43:48	01:13:53
45	147	Lisa Becharas	USA	03:57:41	00:32:36	02:04:37	02:39:13	01:18:28
46	132	Kristin Liepold	GER	04:01:00	00:36:17	02:13:11	02:51:28	01:09:32
	155	Amelie Kretz	CAN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• Gustav Iden: 42% (1-1)
• Alistair Brownlee: 29% (3-1)
• Lionel Sanders: 13% (6-1)
• Sam Long: 5% (20-1)
• Javier Gomez: 3% (29-1)
• Pieter Heemeryck: 3% (30-1)
• Rudy Von Berg: 2% (62-1)

In addition to these rated athletes, you also have to consider Vincent Luis and Jonathan Brownlee (who haven’t raced on the 70.3 distance before) as potential winners for the race – I expect at least one of them to finish on the podium in Daytona.

Female Race Participants

• Holly Lawrence: 53% (1-1)
• Anne Haug: 15% (5-1)
• Amelia Watkinson: 9% (10-1)
• Sarah Crowley: 6% (15-1)
• Laura Philipp: 4% (23-1)
• Paula Findlay: 4% (27-1)
• Nicola Spirig: 3% (30-1)
• Skye Moench: 3% (31-1)