PTO 2020 Championship at Challenge Daytona (December 6th)

PTOChampionship

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Daytona

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2018 Pieter Heemeryck (BEL) 02:27:45 Sarah Haskins (USA) 02:42:52
2019 Lionel Sanders (CAN) 02:23:02 Paula Findlay (CAN) 02:38:47

Last Race’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Lionel Sanders CAN 00:23:15 01:14:54 00:42:51 02:23:02
2 Pablo Dapena Gonzalez ESP 00:20:44 01:17:22 00:43:31 02:23:32
3 Jason West USA 00:20:46 01:21:26 00:43:19 02:27:32

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Paula Findlay CAN 00:22:49 01:25:01 00:48:52 02:38:47
2 Lucy Charles-Barclay GBR 00:21:40 01:26:14 00:49:50 02:39:48
3 Lisa Norden SWE 00:22:50 01:25:01 00:53:45 02:43:50

Prize Money

Challenge Daytona has a total prize purse of 1.115.000 US$, paying 60 deep.

Estimated Time Plan

The following table shows the time plan for the race start and the estimated times for the first athlete in the transition zones or across the finish line. The estimates are based on the local start time and my time estimates, these times can change based on how fast or slow the race ends up:

What Est. Racetime Est. Local Time
Female Pro Start 10:00 am
First Female in T1 00:23:23 10:23 am
First Female in T2 02:23:53 12:23 pm
Female Winner 03:34:48 1:34 pm
Male Pro Start 2:00 pm
First Male in T1 00:25:32 2:25 pm
First Male in T2 02:09:23 4:09 pm
Male Winner 03:10:07 5:10 pm

Daytona is on Eastern Standard Time, 5 hours behind of UTC. Here are the conversions to a few other time zones:

  • + 14 hours: Melbourne (AEDT), races start on Monday at 2am and 6am
  • +5 hours: United Kingdom (GMT), races start at 3pm and 7pm
  • + 6 hours: Central Europe (CET), races start at 4pm and 8 pm
  • +/- 0 hours: US East Coast (EST), races start at 10am and and 2pm
  • – 3 hours: US West Coast (PST), races start at 7am and 11 am

A “Technical Note” on Predicted Times

In previous years, Challenge Daytona was contested on a distance of 1.6k swim, 60k bike, and 13k run. Obviously, this is very different from the normal 70.3 distances, but even so it is obvious that the course is very fast. Take for example the bike time of Lionel Sanders: Scaling up his 1:14:54 (from a 60k bike) to a “normal” 70.3 distance of 90k, you get a 1:52:21 – a few minutes faster than the fastest times on “legitimate” 70.3 courses or about the same as the fastest bike time on the known-to-be-somewhat-short 70.3 Dubai. Similarly, Paula Findley and Lisa Norden rode a 1:25:01 last year which equals a 2:07:31. (For comparison, Imogen Simmonds rode a 2:06:58 when she won in Dubai.)

But it’s tricky to transfer the times from last year to this year’s PTO Championship which will be a 2k swim, 80k bike, and 18k run. The swim and run times can probably just be linearly scaled from the regular distances, but what about the bike? As discussed above, the flat, fast Daytona course is likely to have a big impact on the bike times. Continuing to use Lionel as an example, scaling down his 70.3 bike rating (2:07:48) to 80k, we’d get a 1:53 while his 2019 time (scaled to 80k = 1:40) is only 90% of that. Of course there will be some speed differences between riding 60k, 80k and 90k, but coming up with an exact number is next to impossible with the limited amount of data there is. (For those interested, I’m speeding up the scaled 80k bike times to 92% which gives Lionel an expected bike time of 1:43:29.)

All of this goes to show that the times shown in the seedings below have to be taken with an even larger grain of salt than for other races. But I think they still provide some value in that the order of the athletes and – probably as important – the time difference between the athletes should be pretty stable (at least for those with a decent number of 70.3s) and give a good indication of how the race might unfold when everyone is racing with their “paper form”. For example, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Magnus Ditlev to ride through the field on the bike. Even then, numbers can’t predict what is going to happen when he rides past Alistair Brownlee or Gustav Iden and if Ali is going to stay with him (or trust his much better run). Similarly, on the women’s side Holly Lawrence should ride away from the rest of the field on the bike, possibly building a large enough lead for the run. But there are a few ladies in the field who have raced well in 2020 – for example Lisa Norden has posted the fastest bike split in all her 2020 races (and consistently outperformed my predictions), and at IM Florida four weeks before Daytona, Renee Kiley, Ruth Astle, Skye Moench and Kat Matthews have ridden splits of 4:32 to 4:36 over a flat 180k bike course – even if they don’t ride at a much faster speed they’d be under the two-hour-mark in Daytona.

Male Race Participants

# Bib Name Nat Expected ESwim EBike ET2 ERun
1 54 Gustav Iden NOR 03:11:13 00:25:39 01:44:48 02:12:27 00:58:46
2 1 Alistair Brownlee GBR 03:12:50 00:24:27 01:45:30 02:11:57 01:00:53
3 3 Lionel Sanders CAN 03:14:31 00:27:43 01:43:29 02:13:12 01:01:19
4 7 Javier Gomez ESP 03:15:31 00:24:06 01:48:46 02:14:52 01:00:39
5 53 Magnus Elbaek Ditlev DEN 03:16:37 00:25:59 01:43:24 02:11:23 01:05:14
6 5 Rudy Von Berg USA 03:16:56 00:25:05 01:46:54 02:13:59 01:02:57
7 2 Sebastian Kienle GER 03:16:59 00:27:17 01:45:06 02:14:23 01:02:36
8 14 Sam Appleton AUS 03:17:18 00:24:56 01:45:50 02:12:46 01:04:32
9 9 Pieter Heemeryck BEL 03:18:12 00:25:14 01:47:13 02:14:27 01:03:45
10 18 Daniel Baekkegard DEN 03:18:58 00:24:29 01:49:15 02:15:44 01:03:14
11 17 Florian Angert GER 03:19:01 00:24:47 01:47:40 02:14:27 01:04:34
12 8 Timothy O’Donnell USA 03:19:09 00:24:58 01:47:14 02:14:12 01:04:57
13 16 Maurice Clavel GER 03:19:10 00:25:19 01:47:22 02:14:41 01:04:29
14 56 Henri Schoeman ZAF 03:19:16 00:23:23 01:48:58 02:14:21 01:04:55
15 24 Igor Amorelli BRA 03:19:28 00:25:15 01:45:03 02:12:18 01:07:10
16 26 Ben Kanute USA 03:19:41 00:24:38 01:47:19 02:13:57 01:05:44
17 32 Sam Long USA 03:19:53 00:28:16 01:45:08 02:15:24 01:04:29
18 34 Adam Bowden GBR 03:20:09 00:24:43 01:51:26 02:18:09 01:02:00
19 25 Andi Boecherer GER 03:20:10 00:25:40 01:47:04 02:14:44 01:05:26
20 10 Andreas Dreitz GER 03:20:29 00:26:35 01:46:29 02:15:04 01:05:25
21 29 Bradley Weiss ZAF 03:20:42 00:25:48 01:49:42 02:17:30 01:03:12
22 27 Frederic Funk GER 03:20:43 00:25:20 01:47:36 02:14:56 01:05:47
23 36 Ruedi Wild SUI 03:20:46 00:25:20 01:49:54 02:17:14 01:03:32
24 4 Ben Hoffman USA 03:20:47 00:26:08 01:48:12 02:16:20 01:04:27
25 11 Michael Weiss AUT 03:20:58 00:28:42 01:47:20 02:18:02 01:02:56
26 49 Chris Leiferman USA 03:21:01 00:27:28 01:46:58 02:16:26 01:04:35
27 13 Matt Hanson USA 03:21:04 00:28:29 01:44:45 02:15:14 01:05:50
28 44 Tim Don GBR 03:21:07 00:25:32 01:48:43 02:16:15 01:04:52
29 28 Andy Potts USA 03:21:13 00:25:04 01:49:30 02:16:34 01:04:39
30 40 Joe Gambles AUS 03:21:13 00:26:08 01:48:28 02:16:36 01:04:37
31 35 Jackson Laundry CAN 03:21:15 00:26:48 01:47:50 02:16:38 01:04:37
32 31 George Goodwin GBR 03:21:24 00:26:04 01:50:31 02:18:35 01:02:49
33 50 James Cunnama ZAF 03:21:33 00:27:00 01:48:44 02:17:44 01:03:49
34 12 Bart Aernouts BEL 03:21:40 00:28:37 01:47:31 02:18:08 01:03:32
35 52 Jason West USA 03:21:42 00:25:39 01:50:49 02:18:28 01:03:14
36 39 Thomas Steger AUT 03:22:14 00:26:34 01:50:37 02:19:11 01:03:03
37 41 Boris Stein GER 03:22:29 00:27:54 01:47:31 02:17:25 01:05:04
38 15 Cody Beals CAN 03:22:37 00:26:54 01:48:48 02:17:42 01:04:55
39 43 Eric Lagerstrom USA 03:22:44 00:24:48 01:49:28 02:16:16 01:06:28
40 42 Thomas Davis GBR 03:22:48 00:24:43 01:51:28 02:18:11 01:04:37
41 20 Andrew Starykowicz USA 03:23:17 00:26:07 01:46:42 02:14:49 01:08:28
42 Cameron Wurf AUS 03:23:38 00:27:27 01:46:17 02:15:44 01:07:54
43 30 Eneko Llanos ESP 03:23:54 00:25:33 01:52:19 02:19:52 01:04:02
44 37 Nils Frommhold GER 03:24:32 00:25:27 01:48:21 02:15:48 01:08:44
45 48 Justin Metzler USA 03:24:35 00:25:54 01:51:04 02:18:58 01:05:37
46 23 Matthew Russell USA 03:26:01 00:29:15 01:48:07 02:19:22 01:06:39
47 33 Kristian Hogenhaug DEN 03:26:31 00:26:33 01:47:38 02:16:11 01:10:20
48 45 Taylor Reid CAN 03:26:39 00:26:51 01:51:17 02:20:08 01:06:31
49 46 Jesper Svensson SWE 03:27:27 00:25:02 01:51:34 02:18:36 01:08:51
50 51 Andre Lopes BRA 03:27:54 00:26:47 01:52:00 02:20:47 01:07:07
51 22 Philipp Koutny SUI 03:28:05 00:26:48 01:52:18 02:21:06 01:06:59
52 38 David Plese SLO 03:28:10 00:27:53 01:51:45 02:21:38 01:06:32
53 55 Kieran Lindars GBR 03:30:31 00:24:42 01:56:30 02:23:12 01:07:19
54 59 Andrea Salvisberg SUI 04:05:05 unrated unrated unrated unrated
57 Jonathan Brownlee GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated
58 Vincent Luis FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated
60 Morgan Pearson USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated
61 Matthew McElroy USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated

Female Race Participants

# Bib Name Nat Expected ESwim EBike ET2 ERun
1 102 Holly Lawrence GBR 03:35:44 00:26:19 01:57:34 02:25:53 01:09:51
2 101 Anne Haug GER 03:37:46 00:28:29 02:02:28 02:32:57 01:04:49
3 150 Jodie Stimpson GBR 03:39:02 00:25:57 02:00:07 02:28:04 01:10:58
4 108 Paula Findlay CAN 03:41:23 00:27:27 02:00:19 02:29:46 01:11:37
5 100 Sarah Crowley AUS 03:41:31 00:28:39 01:59:58 02:30:37 01:10:54
6 105 Laura Philipp GER 03:41:59 00:29:42 02:00:51 02:32:33 01:09:26
7 110 Amelia Watkinson NZL 03:42:02 00:27:57 02:00:08 02:30:05 01:11:57
8 152 Nicola Spirig SUI 03:42:05 00:27:25 02:05:21 02:34:46 01:07:19
9 111 Jackie Hering USA 03:42:42 00:29:02 02:03:30 02:34:32 01:08:10
10 104 Heather Jackson USA 03:43:20 00:30:12 01:59:43 02:31:55 01:11:25
11 115 Emma Pallant GBR 03:43:23 00:29:21 02:03:15 02:34:36 01:08:47
12 112 Jeanni Seymour ZAF 03:43:50 00:27:47 02:02:43 02:32:30 01:11:20
13 106 Skye Moench USA 03:43:52 00:29:42 02:00:27 02:32:09 01:11:43
14 130 Katrina Matthews GBR 03:44:29 00:29:20 02:02:32 02:33:52 01:10:37
15 153 Anneke Jenkins NZL 03:44:40 00:27:38 02:04:55 02:34:33 01:10:07
16 127 India Lee GBR 03:44:49 00:27:25 02:02:13 02:31:38 01:13:11
17 113 Sara Svensk SWE 03:45:18 00:31:07 02:01:44 02:34:51 01:10:27
18 119 Lesley Smith USA 03:45:30 00:29:13 02:04:51 02:36:04 01:09:26
19 117 Meredith Kessler USA 03:45:58 00:27:29 02:03:33 02:33:02 01:12:56
20 129 Pamella Oliveira BRA 03:46:08 00:26:54 02:02:11 02:31:05 01:15:03
21 135 Lisa Norden SWE 03:47:10 00:27:58 01:59:18 02:29:16 01:17:54
22 103 Carrie Lester AUS 03:47:16 00:28:25 02:02:29 02:32:54 01:14:22
23 123 Manon Genet FRA 03:47:26 00:30:09 02:03:05 02:35:14 01:12:12
24 137 Alissa Doehla USA 03:47:40 00:29:48 02:03:21 02:35:09 01:12:31
25 131 Fenella Langridge GBR 03:47:45 00:27:48 02:05:19 02:35:07 01:12:38
26 118 Agnieszka Jerzyk POL 03:48:54 00:28:44 02:03:57 02:34:41 01:14:13
27 138 Nikki Bartlett GBR 03:48:54 00:30:39 02:03:11 02:35:50 01:13:04
28 121 Kimberley Morrison GBR 03:49:05 00:29:29 02:00:11 02:31:40 01:17:25
29 116 Judith Corachan Vaquera ESP 03:49:44 00:28:41 02:05:31 02:36:12 01:13:32
30 133 Angela Naeth CAN 03:49:48 00:31:32 02:00:37 02:34:09 01:15:39
31 144 Lucy Hall GBR 03:49:51 00:25:32 02:04:12 02:31:44 01:18:07
32 140 Jennifer Spieldenner USA 03:50:14 00:27:02 02:05:54 02:34:56 01:15:18
33 141 Elisabetta Curridori ITA 03:50:31 00:29:55 02:05:44 02:37:39 01:12:52
34 134 Rach McBride CAN 03:50:51 00:28:43 02:02:58 02:33:41 01:17:10
35 139 Emma Bilham SUI 03:51:24 00:28:38 02:06:10 02:36:48 01:14:36
36 154 Ruth Astle GBR 03:51:47 00:32:18 02:04:17 02:38:35 01:13:12
37 128 Lauren Brandon USA 03:52:00 00:25:41 02:02:37 02:30:18 01:21:42
38 142 Kelsey Withrow USA 03:52:18 00:27:56 02:05:42 02:35:38 01:16:40
39 145 Danielle Lewis USA 03:53:45 00:36:33 02:02:06 02:40:39 01:13:06
40 120 Carolin Lehrieder GER 03:53:59 00:28:59 02:07:07 02:38:06 01:15:53
41 114 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 03:55:13 00:34:26 02:08:15 02:44:41 01:10:32
42 146 Renee Kiley AUS 03:56:06 00:30:42 02:02:50 02:35:32 01:20:34
43 125 Michelle Vesterby DEN 03:56:50 00:28:11 02:07:11 02:37:22 01:19:28
44 126 Lisa Roberts USA 03:57:41 00:33:24 02:08:24 02:43:48 01:13:53
45 147 Lisa Becharas USA 03:57:41 00:32:36 02:04:37 02:39:13 01:18:28
46 132 Kristin Liepold GER 04:01:00 00:36:17 02:13:11 02:51:28 01:09:32
155 Amelie Kretz CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Gustav Iden: 42% (1-1)
  • Alistair Brownlee: 29% (3-1)
  • Lionel Sanders: 13% (6-1)
  • Sam Long: 5% (20-1)
  • Javier Gomez: 3% (29-1)
  • Pieter Heemeryck: 3% (30-1)
  • Rudy Von Berg: 2% (62-1)

In addition to these rated athletes, you also have to consider Vincent Luis and Jonathan Brownlee (who haven’t raced on the 70.3 distance before) as potential winners for the race – I expect at least one of them to finish on the podium in Daytona.

Female Race Participants

  • Holly Lawrence: 53% (1-1)
  • Anne Haug: 15% (5-1)
  • Amelia Watkinson: 9% (10-1)
  • Sarah Crowley: 6% (15-1)
  • Laura Philipp: 4% (23-1)
  • Paula Findlay: 4% (27-1)
  • Nicola Spirig: 3% (30-1)
  • Skye Moench: 3% (31-1)

3 Responses to PTO 2020 Championship at Challenge Daytona (December 6th)

  1. Ryan November 25, 2020 at 10:33 pm #

    Interesting to see if Starky will be racing considering he’s currently been banned due to an invalid TUE

    https://www.usada.org/sanction/andrew-starykowicz-tue-appeal-denied-cas-arbitrator/

  2. Thomas December 3, 2020 at 10:10 am #

    Hi Thorsten,

    I love your ratings and mostly I agree to your results. However how can you prepare a list for Daytona and mention Vincent Luis and the end of the list as unrated. Daytona won’t be a long distance triathlon and ITU guys need to be taken into account. Vincent Luis has been absolutely dominating the last ITU races. He played with Alistair like cat with a mouse and I would be surprised, if wouldn’t finish near of on podium.
    Is there a way to integrate ITU results into your calculation? I think to have a race where ITU and long distance athletes can battle is a very cool idea. But then it would be also cool to reflect this in your rating (and maybe also in the PTO ranking)

    Mit sportlichen Grüßen
    Thomas

    • Thorsten December 3, 2020 at 12:10 pm #

      Hello Thomas,
      thank you for your comment.
      I totally agree that Vincent Luis is likely going to play a big role in Daytona. But my rankings are based on results on the same distance (at least more or less), and Vincent has never raced longer than Olympic Distance. Therefore, I can’t “data predict” how he’s going to do in Daytona.
      In my Rankings, I build separate lists for half and full distance, based on the results in races of these groups. For Olympic Distance, time is less important than “place” and therefore a different system would be needed if I wanted to produce a third category.
      As for the PTO Rankings, only results from races longer than Olympic Distance are considered and I don’t see this change in the near future.
      Cheers
      Thorsten

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