PTO 2020 Championship at Challenge Daytona (December 6th)

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Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2018	Pieter Heemeryck (BEL)	02:27:45	Sarah Haskins (USA)	02:42:52
2019	Lionel Sanders (CAN)	02:23:02	Paula Findlay (CAN)	02:38:47

Last Race’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Lionel Sanders	CAN	00:23:15	01:14:54	00:42:51	02:23:02
2	Pablo Dapena Gonzalez	ESP	00:20:44	01:17:22	00:43:31	02:23:32
3	Jason West	USA	00:20:46	01:21:26	00:43:19	02:27:32

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Paula Findlay	CAN	00:22:49	01:25:01	00:48:52	02:38:47
2	Lucy Charles-Barclay	GBR	00:21:40	01:26:14	00:49:50	02:39:48
3	Lisa Norden	SWE	00:22:50	01:25:01	00:53:45	02:43:50

Prize Money

Challenge Daytona has a total prize purse of 1.115.000 US$, paying 60 deep.

Estimated Time Plan

The following table shows the time plan for the race start and the estimated times for the first athlete in the transition zones or across the finish line. The estimates are based on the local start time and my time estimates, these times can change based on how fast or slow the race ends up:

What	Est. Racetime	Est. Local Time
Female Pro Start		10:00 am
First Female in T1	00:23:23	10:23 am
First Female in T2	02:23:53	12:23 pm
Female Winner	03:34:48	1:34 pm
Male Pro Start		2:00 pm
First Male in T1	00:25:32	2:25 pm
First Male in T2	02:09:23	4:09 pm
Male Winner	03:10:07	5:10 pm

Daytona is on Eastern Standard Time, 5 hours behind of UTC. Here are the conversions to a few other time zones:

• + 14 hours: Melbourne (AEDT), races start on Monday at 2am and 6am
• +5 hours: United Kingdom (GMT), races start at 3pm and 7pm
• + 6 hours: Central Europe (CET), races start at 4pm and 8 pm
• +/- 0 hours: US East Coast (EST), races start at 10am and and 2pm
• – 3 hours: US West Coast (PST), races start at 7am and 11 am

A “Technical Note” on Predicted Times

In previous years, Challenge Daytona was contested on a distance of 1.6k swim, 60k bike, and 13k run. Obviously, this is very different from the normal 70.3 distances, but even so it is obvious that the course is very fast. Take for example the bike time of Lionel Sanders: Scaling up his 1:14:54 (from a 60k bike) to a “normal” 70.3 distance of 90k, you get a 1:52:21 – a few minutes faster than the fastest times on “legitimate” 70.3 courses or about the same as the fastest bike time on the known-to-be-somewhat-short 70.3 Dubai. Similarly, Paula Findley and Lisa Norden rode a 1:25:01 last year which equals a 2:07:31. (For comparison, Imogen Simmonds rode a 2:06:58 when she won in Dubai.)

But it’s tricky to transfer the times from last year to this year’s PTO Championship which will be a 2k swim, 80k bike, and 18k run. The swim and run times can probably just be linearly scaled from the regular distances, but what about the bike? As discussed above, the flat, fast Daytona course is likely to have a big impact on the bike times. Continuing to use Lionel as an example, scaling down his 70.3 bike rating (2:07:48) to 80k, we’d get a 1:53 while his 2019 time (scaled to 80k = 1:40) is only 90% of that. Of course there will be some speed differences between riding 60k, 80k and 90k, but coming up with an exact number is next to impossible with the limited amount of data there is. (For those interested, I’m speeding up the scaled 80k bike times to 92% which gives Lionel an expected bike time of 1:43:29.)

All of this goes to show that the times shown in the seedings below have to be taken with an even larger grain of salt than for other races. But I think they still provide some value in that the order of the athletes and – probably as important – the time difference between the athletes should be pretty stable (at least for those with a decent number of 70.3s) and give a good indication of how the race might unfold when everyone is racing with their “paper form”. For example, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Magnus Ditlev to ride through the field on the bike. Even then, numbers can’t predict what is going to happen when he rides past Alistair Brownlee or Gustav Iden and if Ali is going to stay with him (or trust his much better run). Similarly, on the women’s side Holly Lawrence should ride away from the rest of the field on the bike, possibly building a large enough lead for the run. But there are a few ladies in the field who have raced well in 2020 – for example Lisa Norden has posted the fastest bike split in all her 2020 races (and consistently outperformed my predictions), and at IM Florida four weeks before Daytona, Renee Kiley, Ruth Astle, Skye Moench and Kat Matthews have ridden splits of 4:32 to 4:36 over a flat 180k bike course – even if they don’t ride at a much faster speed they’d be under the two-hour-mark in Daytona.

Male Race Participants

#	Bib	Name	Nat	Expected	ESwim	EBike	ET2	ERun
1	54	Gustav Iden	NOR	03:11:13	00:25:39	01:44:48	02:12:27	00:58:46
2	1	Alistair Brownlee	GBR	03:12:50	00:24:27	01:45:30	02:11:57	01:00:53
3	3	Lionel Sanders	CAN	03:14:31	00:27:43	01:43:29	02:13:12	01:01:19
4	7	Javier Gomez	ESP	03:15:31	00:24:06	01:48:46	02:14:52	01:00:39
5	53	Magnus Elbaek Ditlev	DEN	03:16:37	00:25:59	01:43:24	02:11:23	01:05:14
6	5	Rudy Von Berg	USA	03:16:56	00:25:05	01:46:54	02:13:59	01:02:57
7	2	Sebastian Kienle	GER	03:16:59	00:27:17	01:45:06	02:14:23	01:02:36
8	14	Sam Appleton	AUS	03:17:18	00:24:56	01:45:50	02:12:46	01:04:32
9	9	Pieter Heemeryck	BEL	03:18:12	00:25:14	01:47:13	02:14:27	01:03:45
10	18	Daniel Baekkegard	DEN	03:18:58	00:24:29	01:49:15	02:15:44	01:03:14
11	17	Florian Angert	GER	03:19:01	00:24:47	01:47:40	02:14:27	01:04:34
12	8	Timothy O’Donnell	USA	03:19:09	00:24:58	01:47:14	02:14:12	01:04:57
13	16	Maurice Clavel	GER	03:19:10	00:25:19	01:47:22	02:14:41	01:04:29
14	56	Henri Schoeman	ZAF	03:19:16	00:23:23	01:48:58	02:14:21	01:04:55
15	24	Igor Amorelli	BRA	03:19:28	00:25:15	01:45:03	02:12:18	01:07:10
16	26	Ben Kanute	USA	03:19:41	00:24:38	01:47:19	02:13:57	01:05:44
17	32	Sam Long	USA	03:19:53	00:28:16	01:45:08	02:15:24	01:04:29
18	34	Adam Bowden	GBR	03:20:09	00:24:43	01:51:26	02:18:09	01:02:00
19	25	Andi Boecherer	GER	03:20:10	00:25:40	01:47:04	02:14:44	01:05:26
20	10	Andreas Dreitz	GER	03:20:29	00:26:35	01:46:29	02:15:04	01:05:25
21	29	Bradley Weiss	ZAF	03:20:42	00:25:48	01:49:42	02:17:30	01:03:12
22	27	Frederic Funk	GER	03:20:43	00:25:20	01:47:36	02:14:56	01:05:47
23	36	Ruedi Wild	SUI	03:20:46	00:25:20	01:49:54	02:17:14	01:03:32
24	4	Ben Hoffman	USA	03:20:47	00:26:08	01:48:12	02:16:20	01:04:27
25	11	Michael Weiss	AUT	03:20:58	00:28:42	01:47:20	02:18:02	01:02:56
26	49	Chris Leiferman	USA	03:21:01	00:27:28	01:46:58	02:16:26	01:04:35
27	13	Matt Hanson	USA	03:21:04	00:28:29	01:44:45	02:15:14	01:05:50
28	44	Tim Don	GBR	03:21:07	00:25:32	01:48:43	02:16:15	01:04:52
29	28	Andy Potts	USA	03:21:13	00:25:04	01:49:30	02:16:34	01:04:39
30	40	Joe Gambles	AUS	03:21:13	00:26:08	01:48:28	02:16:36	01:04:37
31	35	Jackson Laundry	CAN	03:21:15	00:26:48	01:47:50	02:16:38	01:04:37
32	31	George Goodwin	GBR	03:21:24	00:26:04	01:50:31	02:18:35	01:02:49
33	50	James Cunnama	ZAF	03:21:33	00:27:00	01:48:44	02:17:44	01:03:49
34	12	Bart Aernouts	BEL	03:21:40	00:28:37	01:47:31	02:18:08	01:03:32
35	52	Jason West	USA	03:21:42	00:25:39	01:50:49	02:18:28	01:03:14
36	39	Thomas Steger	AUT	03:22:14	00:26:34	01:50:37	02:19:11	01:03:03
37	41	Boris Stein	GER	03:22:29	00:27:54	01:47:31	02:17:25	01:05:04
38	15	Cody Beals	CAN	03:22:37	00:26:54	01:48:48	02:17:42	01:04:55
39	43	Eric Lagerstrom	USA	03:22:44	00:24:48	01:49:28	02:16:16	01:06:28
40	42	Thomas Davis	GBR	03:22:48	00:24:43	01:51:28	02:18:11	01:04:37
41	20	Andrew Starykowicz	USA	03:23:17	00:26:07	01:46:42	02:14:49	01:08:28
42		Cameron Wurf	AUS	03:23:38	00:27:27	01:46:17	02:15:44	01:07:54
43	30	Eneko Llanos	ESP	03:23:54	00:25:33	01:52:19	02:19:52	01:04:02
44	37	Nils Frommhold	GER	03:24:32	00:25:27	01:48:21	02:15:48	01:08:44
45	48	Justin Metzler	USA	03:24:35	00:25:54	01:51:04	02:18:58	01:05:37
46	23	Matthew Russell	USA	03:26:01	00:29:15	01:48:07	02:19:22	01:06:39
47	33	Kristian Hogenhaug	DEN	03:26:31	00:26:33	01:47:38	02:16:11	01:10:20
48	45	Taylor Reid	CAN	03:26:39	00:26:51	01:51:17	02:20:08	01:06:31
49	46	Jesper Svensson	SWE	03:27:27	00:25:02	01:51:34	02:18:36	01:08:51
50	51	Andre Lopes	BRA	03:27:54	00:26:47	01:52:00	02:20:47	01:07:07
51	22	Philipp Koutny	SUI	03:28:05	00:26:48	01:52:18	02:21:06	01:06:59
52	38	David Plese	SLO	03:28:10	00:27:53	01:51:45	02:21:38	01:06:32
53	55	Kieran Lindars	GBR	03:30:31	00:24:42	01:56:30	02:23:12	01:07:19
54	59	Andrea Salvisberg	SUI	04:05:05	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated
	57	Jonathan Brownlee	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated
	58	Vincent Luis	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated
	60	Morgan Pearson	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated
	61	Matthew McElroy	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated

Female Race Participants

#	Bib	Name	Nat	Expected	ESwim	EBike	ET2	ERun
1	102	Holly Lawrence	GBR	03:35:44	00:26:19	01:57:34	02:25:53	01:09:51
2	101	Anne Haug	GER	03:37:46	00:28:29	02:02:28	02:32:57	01:04:49
3	150	Jodie Stimpson	GBR	03:39:02	00:25:57	02:00:07	02:28:04	01:10:58
4	108	Paula Findlay	CAN	03:41:23	00:27:27	02:00:19	02:29:46	01:11:37
5	100	Sarah Crowley	AUS	03:41:31	00:28:39	01:59:58	02:30:37	01:10:54
6	105	Laura Philipp	GER	03:41:59	00:29:42	02:00:51	02:32:33	01:09:26
7	110	Amelia Watkinson	NZL	03:42:02	00:27:57	02:00:08	02:30:05	01:11:57
8	152	Nicola Spirig	SUI	03:42:05	00:27:25	02:05:21	02:34:46	01:07:19
9	111	Jackie Hering	USA	03:42:42	00:29:02	02:03:30	02:34:32	01:08:10
10	104	Heather Jackson	USA	03:43:20	00:30:12	01:59:43	02:31:55	01:11:25
11	115	Emma Pallant	GBR	03:43:23	00:29:21	02:03:15	02:34:36	01:08:47
12	112	Jeanni Seymour	ZAF	03:43:50	00:27:47	02:02:43	02:32:30	01:11:20
13	106	Skye Moench	USA	03:43:52	00:29:42	02:00:27	02:32:09	01:11:43
14	130	Katrina Matthews	GBR	03:44:29	00:29:20	02:02:32	02:33:52	01:10:37
15	153	Anneke Jenkins	NZL	03:44:40	00:27:38	02:04:55	02:34:33	01:10:07
16	127	India Lee	GBR	03:44:49	00:27:25	02:02:13	02:31:38	01:13:11
17	113	Sara Svensk	SWE	03:45:18	00:31:07	02:01:44	02:34:51	01:10:27
18	119	Lesley Smith	USA	03:45:30	00:29:13	02:04:51	02:36:04	01:09:26
19	117	Meredith Kessler	USA	03:45:58	00:27:29	02:03:33	02:33:02	01:12:56
20	129	Pamella Oliveira	BRA	03:46:08	00:26:54	02:02:11	02:31:05	01:15:03
21	135	Lisa Norden	SWE	03:47:10	00:27:58	01:59:18	02:29:16	01:17:54
22	103	Carrie Lester	AUS	03:47:16	00:28:25	02:02:29	02:32:54	01:14:22
23	123	Manon Genet	FRA	03:47:26	00:30:09	02:03:05	02:35:14	01:12:12
24	137	Alissa Doehla	USA	03:47:40	00:29:48	02:03:21	02:35:09	01:12:31
25	131	Fenella Langridge	GBR	03:47:45	00:27:48	02:05:19	02:35:07	01:12:38
26	118	Agnieszka Jerzyk	POL	03:48:54	00:28:44	02:03:57	02:34:41	01:14:13
27	138	Nikki Bartlett	GBR	03:48:54	00:30:39	02:03:11	02:35:50	01:13:04
28	121	Kimberley Morrison	GBR	03:49:05	00:29:29	02:00:11	02:31:40	01:17:25
29	116	Judith Corachan Vaquera	ESP	03:49:44	00:28:41	02:05:31	02:36:12	01:13:32
30	133	Angela Naeth	CAN	03:49:48	00:31:32	02:00:37	02:34:09	01:15:39
31	144	Lucy Hall	GBR	03:49:51	00:25:32	02:04:12	02:31:44	01:18:07
32	140	Jennifer Spieldenner	USA	03:50:14	00:27:02	02:05:54	02:34:56	01:15:18
33	141	Elisabetta Curridori	ITA	03:50:31	00:29:55	02:05:44	02:37:39	01:12:52
34	134	Rach McBride	CAN	03:50:51	00:28:43	02:02:58	02:33:41	01:17:10
35	139	Emma Bilham	SUI	03:51:24	00:28:38	02:06:10	02:36:48	01:14:36
36	154	Ruth Astle	GBR	03:51:47	00:32:18	02:04:17	02:38:35	01:13:12
37	128	Lauren Brandon	USA	03:52:00	00:25:41	02:02:37	02:30:18	01:21:42
38	142	Kelsey Withrow	USA	03:52:18	00:27:56	02:05:42	02:35:38	01:16:40
39	145	Danielle Lewis	USA	03:53:45	00:36:33	02:02:06	02:40:39	01:13:06
40	120	Carolin Lehrieder	GER	03:53:59	00:28:59	02:07:07	02:38:06	01:15:53
41	114	Gurutze Frades Larralde	ESP	03:55:13	00:34:26	02:08:15	02:44:41	01:10:32
42	146	Renee Kiley	AUS	03:56:06	00:30:42	02:02:50	02:35:32	01:20:34
43	125	Michelle Vesterby	DEN	03:56:50	00:28:11	02:07:11	02:37:22	01:19:28
44	126	Lisa Roberts	USA	03:57:41	00:33:24	02:08:24	02:43:48	01:13:53
45	147	Lisa Becharas	USA	03:57:41	00:32:36	02:04:37	02:39:13	01:18:28
46	132	Kristin Liepold	GER	04:01:00	00:36:17	02:13:11	02:51:28	01:09:32
	155	Amelie Kretz	CAN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• Gustav Iden: 42% (1-1)
• Alistair Brownlee: 29% (3-1)
• Lionel Sanders: 13% (6-1)
• Sam Long: 5% (20-1)
• Javier Gomez: 3% (29-1)
• Pieter Heemeryck: 3% (30-1)
• Rudy Von Berg: 2% (62-1)

In addition to these rated athletes, you also have to consider Vincent Luis and Jonathan Brownlee (who haven’t raced on the 70.3 distance before) as potential winners for the race – I expect at least one of them to finish on the podium in Daytona.

Female Race Participants

• Holly Lawrence: 53% (1-1)
• Anne Haug: 15% (5-1)
• Amelia Watkinson: 9% (10-1)
• Sarah Crowley: 6% (15-1)
• Laura Philipp: 4% (23-1)
• Paula Findlay: 4% (27-1)
• Nicola Spirig: 3% (30-1)
• Skye Moench: 3% (31-1)