Ironman Canada 2016 (July 24th) – Predictions

Update July 20th: In the latest startlist a few names have been removed. I have crossed them out in the predictions table below.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2013	Trevor Wurtele (CAN)	08:39:33	Uli Bromme (USA)	09:28:13
2014	Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL)	08:16:10	Bree Wee (USA)	09:46:58
2015	Viktor Zyemtsev (USA)	08:49:46	Danielle Mack (USA)	09:46:19

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Viktor Zyemtsev	USA	00:53:03	04:58:32	02:54:28	08:49:46
2	Kyle Buckingham	ZAF	00:48:40	04:56:18	03:01:24	08:50:30
3	Justin Daerr	USA	00:53:02	04:58:35	02:59:13	08:54:45

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Danielle Mack	USA	01:01:49	05:23:53	03:16:09	09:46:19
2	Melanie McQuaid	CAN	00:57:47	05:22:43	03:23:44	09:48:23
3	Jen Annett	CAN	01:02:01	05:32:14	03:16:03	09:55:06

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:16:10	Marino Vanhoenacker	2014-07-27
Swim	overall	00:48:22	Barrett Brandon	2015-07-26
Bike	overall	04:31:34	Marino Vanhoenacker	2014-07-27
Run	overall	02:40:34	Jeff Symonds	2014-07-27
Total	female	09:28:13	Uli Bromme	2013-08-25
Swim	female	00:53:09	Anna Cleaver	2014-07-27
Bike	female	05:13:51	Uli Bromme	2013-08-25
Run	female	03:06:53	Uli Bromme	2013-08-25

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Canada is – 03:36.

Race Adjustments for IM Canada

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2013	01:25	00:02	-00:39	02:59	24	01:25	00:02	-00:39	02:59
2014	03:08	-00:04	-03:19	-00:21	15 of 17	02:17	-00:01	-01:59	01:19
2015	-15:22	-00:06	-14:14	-03:02	23 of 33	-03:36	-00:03	-06:04	-00:08

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Canada is a P-2000 race. It will be an MPRO-only race and has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	3	Andy Potts	USA	08:25:41	08:22:46	00:46:43	04:42:27	02:51:31	100% +0% -0% (13)	8
2	9	Callum Millward	NZL	08:33:00	08:26:16	00:48:15	04:46:39	02:53:07	74% +0% -26% (4)	17
3	7	Michael Weiss	AUT	08:33:15	08:32:02	00:53:45	04:35:52	02:58:37	91% +9% -0% (14)	25
4	1	Viktor Zyemtsev	USA	08:35:14	08:33:02	00:50:44	04:49:21	02:50:08	80% +0% -20% (19)	29
5	6	Maik Twelsiek	GER	08:41:28	08:37:34	00:50:18	04:36:47	03:09:23	78% +8% -14% (29)	50
6	2	Trevor Wurtele	CAN	08:42:50	08:52:03	00:52:43	04:44:58	03:00:09	41% +36% -23% (17)	96
7	5	Paul Ambrose	AUS	08:43:16	09:00:17	00:49:47	04:44:44	03:03:46	41% +4% -56% (20)	127
8	4	Justin Daerr	USA	08:45:37	08:50:23	00:52:35	04:50:17	02:57:44	56% +13% -31% (28)	90
9	13	Pedro Gomes	POR	08:45:56	08:40:43	00:51:54	04:52:24	02:56:39	65% +5% -30% (22)	57
10	14	Mike Aigroz	SUI	08:49:43	08:50:54	00:48:23	04:51:44	03:04:36	51% +3% -46% (21)	93
11	28	Jonathan Shearon	USA	08:54:27	08:55:08	00:53:24	04:48:45	03:07:18	57% +12% -31% (13)	103
12	10	Ben Collins	USA	08:56:19	08:58:11	00:48:49	04:53:35	03:08:56	100% +0% -0% (2)	(118)
13	19	Derek Garcia	USA	08:58:26	09:04:39	00:53:09	04:50:54	03:09:23	81% +7% -12% (10)	151
14	11	Stephen Kilshaw	CAN	08:58:31	09:11:37	00:54:08	04:56:28	03:02:55	59% +40% -1% (8)	171
15	8	Swen Sundberg	GER	09:02:41	08:59:02	00:52:45	04:54:07	03:10:49	55% +1% -44% (17)	121
16	16	Simon Billeau	FRA	09:06:47	09:03:29	00:54:28	04:49:49	03:17:29	43% +0% -57% (17)	142
17	12	Elliot Holtham	CAN	09:07:02	09:13:36	00:53:10	05:00:01	03:08:50	22% +42% -37% (6)	181
18	29	Nathan Champness	CAN	09:21:08	09:24:56	00:56:58	04:55:39	03:23:32	100% +0% -0% (2)	(212)
19	27	Anthony Toth	CAN	09:28:35	09:29:45	00:57:39	05:08:38	03:17:18	20% +11% -69% (17)	226
20	26	Matthew Sheeks	USA	09:30:24	09:38:11	00:52:40	04:26:37	04:06:07	22% +4% -74% (9)	247
21	17	Scott Bradley	USA	09:30:47	09:34:57	01:02:02	05:01:11	03:22:34	100% +0% -0% (2)	(241)
22	20	Dylan Gleeson	CAN	09:31:06	09:36:24	00:54:45	05:05:58	03:25:23	47% +53% -0% (2)	(244)
23	24	Adam O’Meara	CAN	09:32:26	09:37:12	00:54:35	05:16:01	03:16:50	45% +26% -29% (14)	244
24	22	Andrew Langfield	USA	09:48:21	09:56:12	00:57:27	05:25:59	03:19:55	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(275)
25	21	Elmar Heger	GER	09:51:49	10:03:02	00:56:25	05:09:20	03:41:04	44% +23% -33% (6)	284
26	25	Matt Shanks	USA	09:55:35	09:57:46	00:59:29	05:22:56	03:28:09	100% +0% -0% (2)	(279)
27	18	Andrew Fast	USA	10:28:50	10:38:34	00:58:13	05:22:42	04:02:55	19% +28% -52% (4)	(297)
	23	Jeff Manson	CAN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Andy Potts is the clear favorite, he has always been racing well in his summer Ironman races. Behind him it’s unclear who will race, some have already secured their Kona slots or are very close and may skip Whistler to prepare for Kona:

• Andy Potts: 52% (1-1)
• Viktor Zyemtsev: 22% (4-1)
• Michael Weiss: 9% (10-1)
• Callum Millward: 7% (14-1)
• Justin Daerr: 4% (26-1)

KPR Situation

Andy Potts still needs his validation race, while Michael Weiss (not shown) is already safe and unlikely to race.