Ironman Mallorca 2016 (Sept 24th) – Predictions

Thanks to Jocelyn McCauley, here’s the sign-in sheet from the Pro Meeting:

This is not necessarily complete, but those that signed will definitely want to race on Sunday. (However, Till Schramm and Diana Riesler are no longer on the sign-in sheet so I crossed them out in the lists below.)

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2014	Tim Don (GBR)	08:34:02	Eimear Mullan (IRL)	09:24:17
2015	Timo Bracht (GER)	08:17:22	Daniela Saemmler (GER)	09:24:48

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Timo Bracht	GER	00:49:57	04:32:16	02:50:59	08:17:22
2	James Cunnama	ZAF	00:49:54	04:34:14	02:50:52	08:19:36
3	Alessandro Degasperi	ITA	00:51:43	04:37:40	02:49:41	08:23:56

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Daniela Saemmler	GER	00:57:29	05:06:28	03:14:44	09:24:48
2	Emma-Kate Lidbury	GBR	00:55:11	05:09:30	03:21:11	09:31:49
3	Alexandra Tondeur	BEL	00:58:47	05:14:35	03:14:17	09:34:32

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:17:22	Timo Bracht	2015-09-26
Swim	overall	00:44:46	Manuel Kueng	2014-09-27
Bike	overall	04:32:16	Timo Bracht	2015-09-26
Run	overall	02:47:30	Miquel Blanchart Tinto	2014-09-27
Total	female	09:24:17	Eimear Mullan	2014-09-27
Swim	female	00:49:52	Mette Pettersen Moe	2014-09-27
Bike	female	05:04:52	Nina Kuhn	2014-09-27
Run	female	03:10:26	Eimear Mullan	2014-09-27

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Mallorca is 05:31.

Race Adjustments for IM Mallorca

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2014	02:50	02:33	01:02	03:10	44 of 58	02:50	02:33	01:02	03:10
2015	08:13	-01:13	08:32	02:31	26 of 39	05:31	00:40	04:47	02:50

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Mallorca is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	2	Markus Fachbach	GER	08:32:10	08:42:16	00:49:16	04:37:28	03:00:25	61% +0% -39% (18)	(66)
2	7	Konstantin Bachor	GER	08:32:36	08:50:22	00:49:05	04:31:08	03:07:24	49% +9% -42% (10)	(95)
3	29	Horst Reichel	GER	08:34:45	09:05:54	00:48:23	04:40:45	03:00:37	6% +16% -79% (16)	(153)
4	1	Marcel Zamora	ESP	08:38:17	08:40:55	00:51:05	04:46:45	02:55:28	97% +0% -3% (13)	(59)
5	42	Ritchie Nicholls	GBR	08:38:19	08:58:34	00:50:11	04:53:31	02:49:37	47% +0% -53% (4)	(121)
6	48	Trevor Delsaut	FRA	08:40:57	08:46:42	00:53:12	04:46:33	02:56:13	47% +9% -44% (23)	83
7	14	Herve Faure	FRA	08:41:59	08:50:23	00:50:53	04:43:17	03:02:49	45% +0% -55% (8)	(95)
8	12	Roman Deisenhofer	GER	08:43:21	08:59:36	00:52:25	04:37:36	03:08:20	27% +73% -0% (5)	125
9	30	Michael Ruenz	GER	08:45:09	08:53:01	00:54:59	04:48:51	02:56:19	63% +0% -37% (8)	100
10	26	Matic Modic	SLO	08:45:58	08:58:03	00:54:47	04:49:17	02:56:53	49% +43% -8% (8)	120
11	3	Carlos Lopez Diaz	ESP	08:46:16	09:05:53	00:46:51	04:46:15	03:08:10	26% +13% -61% (6)	152
12	34	Erik-Simon Strijk	NED	08:46:20	08:53:46	00:52:39	04:45:47	03:02:55	96% +4% -0% (7)	101
13	32	Alexander Schilling	GER	08:47:10	09:03:20	00:46:39	04:49:44	03:05:48	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(138)
14	36	Darby Thomas	FIN	08:47:35	08:56:34	00:58:33	04:44:41	02:59:21	48% +7% -45% (8)	114
15	44	Samuel Huerzeler	SUI	08:54:52	09:08:50	00:52:29	04:54:02	03:03:21	68% +32% -0% (6)	160
16	43	Mike Schifferle	SUI	08:56:40	09:03:07	00:59:35	04:47:20	03:04:45	89% +8% -3% (60)	137
17	25	Tomas Mika	CZE	08:59:16	09:09:20	00:54:00	05:00:23	02:59:52	89% +11% -0% (6)	163
18	4	Michael Van Cleven	BEL	09:01:42	09:18:18	00:49:35	04:37:22	03:29:46	61% +0% -39% (2)	(190)
19	18	Mikita Hryhoryeu	POL	09:03:21	09:15:27	00:51:26	05:00:14	03:06:41	100% +0% -0% (2)	(185)
20	9	Bart Borghs	BEL	09:03:26	09:20:05	01:00:33	04:58:17	02:59:36	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(196)
21	8	Herve Banti	MCO	09:07:39	09:26:06	00:51:33	04:48:31	03:22:35	22% +0% -78% (6)	(211)
22	45	Johan Kaerner	SWE	09:10:44	09:33:18	00:58:48	04:52:04	03:14:53	38% +0% -62% (2)	(229)
23	33	Till Schramm	GER	09:12:26	09:30:19	00:56:25	04:55:14	03:15:47	7% +38% -55% (6)	222
24	50	Gustavo Rodriguez	ESP	09:14:30	09:26:09	00:53:37	04:58:06	03:17:47	100% +0% -0% (2)	(212)
25	24	Michael Louys	BEL	09:16:49	09:40:34	01:02:17	04:53:39	03:15:53	52% +8% -41% (11)	245
26	10	Thomas Bosch	GER	09:22:43	09:48:40	00:58:51	05:03:34	03:15:18	40% +0% -60% (2)	(258)
27	40	Urs Mueller	SUI	09:23:09	09:34:41	00:56:13	04:59:00	03:22:55	65% +0% -35% (3)	(231)
28	37	Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen	BEL	09:24:12	09:33:06	00:57:00	05:01:21	03:20:51	43% +0% -57% (5)	(229)
29	49	Guillaume Jeannin	FRA	09:27:20	09:50:34	00:50:39	04:56:47	03:34:54	23% +0% -77% (4)	(262)
30	19	David Jilek	CZE	09:27:32	09:39:13	00:57:46	05:00:17	03:24:28	64% +21% -15% (7)	242
31	28	Sebastian Pedraza	ITA	09:33:59	09:23:42	00:55:42	05:00:07	03:33:11	13% +4% -84% (14)	202
32	47	Vincent Depuiset	FRA	09:35:52	09:52:53	01:07:21	05:06:48	03:16:44	60% +28% -12% (9)	264
33	13	Rafael Espinar Puig	ESP	09:36:56	09:48:59	01:05:33	05:17:33	03:08:49	68% +0% -32% (6)	259
34	41	Alfred Rahm	GER	09:41:34	09:56:49	01:03:44	05:08:01	03:24:49	43% +0% -56% (18)	269
35	17	Jan Hron	CZE	09:49:04	10:01:13	01:01:29	05:23:49	03:18:46	100% +0% -0% (2)	(275)
36	23	Ludovic Le Guellec	FRA	09:57:09	10:15:29	01:00:21	05:22:38	03:29:10	59% +4% -38% (21)	283
37	6	Santiago Abad de Agueda	ESP	10:30:50	10:56:40	01:03:04	05:24:02	03:58:45	49% +0% -51% (2)	(298)
38	11	Simon Brierley	SEY	10:42:47	10:49:37	00:59:11	05:25:50	04:12:46	100% +0% -0% (3)	295
39	22	David Krupicka	CZE	10:45:48	10:59:26	01:04:22	05:23:12	04:13:14	100% +0% -0% (2)	(298)
40	27	Marek Nemcik	SVK	11:38:17	12:16:37	01:11:57	05:51:22	04:29:58	30% +23% -47% (36)	302
	5	Joan Nadal Clar	ESP	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	15	Francisco Fernandez Cortes	ESP	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	16	Erik Holmberg	SWE	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	20	Philipp Koutny	SUI	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	21	Alen Kralj	SVN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	31	Kevin Rundstadler	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	0% +0% -100% (3)	(n/a)
	35	Tomas Swift-Metcalfe	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	38	Chris Walker	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	39	Richard Westover	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	46	Hannes Bonami	BEL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	53	Diana Riesler	GER	09:23:37	09:31:45	00:57:27	05:01:20	03:19:50	46% +14% -40% (18)	31
2	54	Emma Bilham	SUI	09:26:59	09:38:59	00:53:57	05:11:41	03:16:21	100% +0% -0% (2)	(49)
3	51	Natascha Schmitt	GER	09:30:14	09:52:58	00:53:19	05:08:44	03:23:10	25% +42% -33% (6)	72
4	60	Leslie DiMichele Miller	USA	09:52:21	10:00:27	00:58:50	05:28:41	03:19:50	100% +0% -0% (3)	89
5	66	Tineke Van den Berg	NED	09:56:01	10:10:14	01:04:07	05:14:07	03:32:47	72% +10% -18% (6)	105
6	57	Jocelyn McCauley	USA	09:58:35	10:23:05	00:59:01	05:26:49	03:27:44	41% +0% -59% (4)	(130)
7	68	Petra Krejcova	CZE	10:04:58	10:12:11	01:01:16	05:33:29	03:25:13	100% +0% -0% (3)	108
8	67	Diane Luethi	SUI	10:05:23	10:23:56	00:54:15	05:28:04	03:38:04	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(136)
9	61	Lina-Kristin Schink	GER	10:06:06	10:14:09	01:12:01	05:20:03	03:29:02	78% +0% -22% (6)	111
10	65	Nicole Woysch	GER	10:06:27	10:15:54	01:01:11	05:22:50	03:37:25	44% +2% -53% (23)	113
11	64	Helena Herrero Gomez	ESP	10:12:08	10:30:23	00:59:17	05:44:58	03:22:53	25% +0% -75% (5)	(144)
12	70	Maja Stage Nielsen	DEN	10:13:25	10:51:20	01:05:25	05:26:53	03:36:08	45% +0% -55% (2)	(160)
13	69	Nina Kuhn	GER	10:13:43	10:35:41	01:00:30	05:33:00	03:35:13	62% +0% -38% (2)	(153)
14	62	Alena Stevens	SVK	10:14:58	10:24:38	01:01:34	05:36:40	03:31:45	65% +23% -12% (5)	(136)
15	55	Jessica Ahlund	SWE	10:59:23	11:19:35	01:02:13	05:44:12	04:07:58	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(164)
16	63	Deborah Van Gossum	BEL	11:00:11	11:23:35	00:54:52	05:40:09	04:20:10	20% +80% -0% (2)	(164)
	56	Nikki Bartlett	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	58	Lauren Parker	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	59	Sara Svensk	SWE	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• Markus Fachbach: 44% (1-1)
• Horst Reichel: 25% (3-1)
• Konstantin Bachor: 17% (5-1)
• Ritchie Nicholls: 4% (23-1)
• Trevor Delsaut: 3% (34-1)
• Roman Deisenhofer: 2% (56-1)

Female Race Participants

• Diana Riesler: 47% (1-1)
• Emma Bilham: 19% (4-1) 43% (1-1)
• Natascha Schmitt: 23% (3-1) 26% (3-1)
• Leslie DiMichele Miller: 6% (15-1) 15% (6-1)
• Tineke Van den Berg: 3% (35-1) 5% (17-1)