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Kona Odds

Last updated Oct 1st

Male Winner

This year’s race is pretty much open as all of the contenders have something that is not in their favor: Jan Frodeno has had the best results in the 2018 season, but he’s had to cancel his Kona race. Sebastian Kienle has been racing well for years, but hasn’t quite found the winning formula for Kona after his win in 2014. Patrick Lange is the defending champion but has not won a race in 2018. Last but not least, Lionel Sanders’ last prep race in Mont Tremblant taught him by his own admission a number of humbling lessons. But at least one of these three favorites is likely to have a good race in Kona, so the chances for the Long Shots are pretty slim.


  • Sebastian Kienle 24% 
  • Patrick Lange 20% 
  • Lionel Sanders 17%

Long Shots

  • Tim Don 10% 
  • Patrik Nilsson 7% 
  • Brent McMahon 4% 
  • Matt Hanson 3%

Female Winner

Can there be any doubt that Daniela Ryf is the obvious favorite on the women’s side? So far she has been superb in all her 2018 races. But there are a number of good athletes in the field, and not all of them will be ready to concede the race to Daniela quite yet.


  • Daniela Ryf >60%

Long Shots

  • Mirinda Carfrae 9% 
  • Lucy Charles 6% 
  • Corinne Abraham 3% 
  • Kaisa Sali 2% 
  • Heather Jackson 2% 
  • Sarah Crowley 2%

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