Kona Odds

Last updated: Mid-July 2017

As most of the Kona contenders have done their summer IMs, here’s the updated Kona odds:

Male Race Participants

  • Jan Frodeno: 35% (2-1) 
  • Sebastian Kienle: 27% (3-1) 
  • Andi Boecherer: 17% (5-1) 
  • Tim Don: 8% (12-1) 
  • Lionel Sanders: 3% (36-1) 
  • Ben Hoffman: 3% (39-1)
Frodo is still the clear favorite to defend his title – he can be the first male to three-peat since the times of “Mark & Dave”. But with their great races in Frankfurt both Sebi and Andi have closed down the “statistical gap” to Frodo a bit. Now that Lionel Sanders has announced he’ll be racing Kona, he’s back among those with chances for a Kona win. Based on their wins with fast times in the Regional Championships in South Africa and Brasil, Tim Don and Ben Hoffman are also contenders.

Female Race Participants

  • Daniela Ryf: 75% (1-1) 
  • Rachel Joyce: 13% (7-1) 
  • Sarah Crowley: 5% (19-1) 
  • Kaisa Sali: 3% (38-1) 

Compared to the last post at the end of 2017, Daniela has even increased her winning chances. Rachel Joyce (now back racing IMs) and Mirinda Carfrae (pregnant and not racing in the 2017 season) have switched their positions. Sarah Crowley is now the athlete with the third best winning chances based on her wins in Cairns and Frankfurt.

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