Ironman Hawaii 2015: Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

I have posted some initial analysis during the race, this post is based on the final results, taking all Pro finishers into account:

  • The 2015 race was considerably slower than last year – the tough conditions lead to an adjustment of -11:30, more than seven minutes slower than last year.
  • While the swim was about as slow as last year, the bike was a bit faster. Having followed the race I think that athletes were going a bit harder than normal, rather than the conditions being more favorable.
  • The main difference to the last years was on the run: An adjustment of -5:36 shows that times were around six minutes slower. This is reflected in the fastest run times of 2:49:52 by David McNamee and 3:06:25 by Liz Blatchford.

The harder run also lead to a large number of DNFs: While last year’s DNF rates were 20% (2013) and 23% (2014), this year there were 32% of Pro athletes that did not finish (30 out of 94 Pro starters).

Male Race Results

Jan Frodeno was the clear favorite, and he was close to the front for the whole day. There was a brief period when Tim O’Donnell was trying to get away on the bike, but he closed the gap with Sebastian Kienle into T2 and quickly pulled away on the run. His lead was never big enough to be comfortable, but in the end Frodo won by just over three minutes. Second place went to Andreas Raelert who had the best run of the top finishers – good to see him back on the podium after struggling for the last two years! “TO” earned third place and top US finisher after being active for most of the bike and then digging deep on the run.

Defending Champion Sebastian Kienle had a good swim and a good bike ride, but never managed to build a gap and then struggled a bit on the run, eventually dropping back to 8th place.

KonaMenPodium

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Jan Frodeno GER 00:50:50 04:27:27 02:52:21 08:14:40 -04:10 US$ 120000
2 Andreas Raelert GER 00:52:24 04:30:52 02:50:02 08:17:43 -12:56 US$ 60000
3 Timothy O’Donnell USA 00:52:24 04:26:13 02:55:46 08:18:50 -23:41 US$ 40000
4 Andy Potts USA 00:50:56 04:32:41 02:53:45 08:21:25 -13:53 US$ 22500
5 Tyler Butterfield BMU 00:52:33 04:29:35 02:56:19 08:23:09 -18:44 US$ 19000
6 Cyril Viennot FRA 00:52:35 04:34:27 02:53:05 08:25:05 -21:47 US$ 16000
7 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:52:36 04:26:56 03:04:10 08:28:10 -06:26 US$ 14000
8 Sebastian Kienle GER 00:52:36 04:25:53 03:06:08 08:29:43 03:07 US$ 12500
9 Brent McMahon CAN 00:52:26 04:27:51 03:06:02 08:30:13 08:47 US$ 11000
10 Boris Stein GER 00:57:27 04:30:48 02:58:48 08:31:43 -13:20 US$ 10000
11 David McNamee GBR 00:52:31 04:45:49 02:49:52 08:32:27 -07:44
12 Ivan Rana ESP 00:52:25 04:45:42 02:51:56 08:34:27 -01:24
13 Joe Skipper GBR 00:57:31 04:28:34 03:04:09 08:36:02 -13:09
14 Lionel Sanders CAN 01:01:10 04:35:17 02:54:41 08:36:26 -15:30
15 Tim Don GBR 00:52:23 04:38:36 03:01:51 08:39:05 -08:40
16 Michael Weiss AUT 01:01:13 04:28:34 03:09:19 08:44:30 08:00
17 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 00:52:43 04:53:46 02:54:28 08:45:21 -03:30
18 Pedro Gomes POR 00:56:37 04:47:55 02:57:19 08:46:14 -07:17
19 Romain Guillaume FRA 00:52:21 04:31:12 03:18:19 08:46:56 -07:40
20 Andi Boecherer GER 00:52:39 04:27:58 03:22:36 08:49:20 08:01
21 Jordan Rapp USA 00:57:00 04:39:22 03:08:35 08:50:21 13:28
22 Maik Twelsiek GER 00:57:01 04:25:10 03:25:15 08:52:11 02:37
23 Jeff Symonds CAN 00:52:41 05:04:05 02:50:15 08:52:18 11:51
24 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:56:44 04:45:16 03:11:25 08:58:46 04:38
25 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 00:52:28 04:27:18 03:39:03 09:03:25 34:03
26 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 00:56:47 04:47:15 03:14:55 09:04:19 09:01
27 Ben Hoffman USA 00:52:29 04:28:51 03:39:33 09:05:22 20:55
28 Justin Daerr USA 00:56:55 04:52:17 03:19:30 09:13:58 19:21
29 Nils Frommhold GER 00:52:20 04:42:06 03:37:08 09:16:44 49:42
30 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:56:40 04:47:52 03:36:27 09:26:16 40:59
31 Daniel Bretscher USA 00:57:07 05:04:37 03:20:33 09:27:12 33:10
32 Jan Van Berkel SUI 00:53:35 04:50:03 03:39:56 09:27:59 33:03
33 Igor Amorelli BRA 00:52:30 04:34:56 04:01:57 09:34:17 47:19
34 Christian Kramer GER 00:52:21 04:43:43 03:57:27 09:40:44 55:43
35 Dylan McNeice NZL 00:50:45 04:55:20 04:07:21 09:58:17 59:36
36 Tim Van Berkel AUS 00:52:30 04:35:34 04:25:09 09:58:18 1:14:08
37 Matt Chrabot USA 01:01:04 04:53:22 04:05:25 10:07:02 1:20:47
38 Fraser Cartmell GBR 00:52:26 05:12:57 03:56:33 10:07:08 1:09:50
Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 00:56:41 04:27:26 DNF
Bart Aernouts BEL 00:57:19 04:37:01 DNF
Matt Trautman ZAF 00:56:55 04:40:26 DNF
Callum Millward NZL 00:52:38 04:45:41 DNF
Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 00:52:23 04:46:58 DNF
Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:57:21 04:43:55 DNF
Luke Bell AUS 00:52:37 04:49:31 DNF
Brad Kahlefeldt AUS 00:52:24 04:58:54 DNF
Viktor Zyemtsev USA 00:56:58 04:59:59 DNF
Bas Diederen NED 00:52:31 05:07:31 DNF
Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 00:52:32 05:44:31 DNF
Luke McKenzie AUS 00:52:28 DNF
Denis Chevrot FRA 00:52:28 DNF
Paul Ambrose AUS 00:52:32 DNF
Cameron Brown NZL 00:57:09 DNF
Matt Hanson USA 01:01:11 DNF

Female Race Results

Daniela Ryf was the clear favorite after her amazing last two years of long distance racing. Similar to last year she took control of the bike after half the distance and built a gap to the rest of the field. Others tried to limit the distance to her but then struggled on the run. Daniela, however, was strong enough to post the third fastest marathon (by 12 seconds) and the only sub-9  finish of the day, winning by 13 minutes. Rachel Joyce had the best run of the women trying to limit the gap to Daniela on the bike – a satisfying end to a season where she struggled with a run injury for a while. Liz Blatchford had the best run of the day and ran herself onto the podium.

Defending Champion Mirinda Carfrae struggled with back issues, after she lost some time on the swim and some more in the first half of the bike, she ended her title defense at the turnaround in Hawi. She made it back to Kona in time to cheer for husband TO on the run.

KonaFemalePodium

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:56:14 04:50:46 03:06:37 08:57:57 -16:44 US$ 120000
2 Rachel Joyce GBR 00:56:11 05:01:29 03:08:42 09:10:59 -08:43 US$ 60000
3 Liz Blatchford AUS 00:56:13 05:07:25 03:06:25 09:14:52 -14:04 US$ 40000
4 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:56:11 05:00:41 03:17:14 09:18:50 -16:18 US$ 22500
5 Heather Jackson USA 01:04:36 05:04:43 03:07:53 09:21:45 -19:00 US$ 19000
6 Susie Cheetham GBR 00:57:39 05:14:33 03:06:55 09:23:50 -07:37 US$ 16000
7 Sarah Piampiano USA 01:10:01 05:02:28 03:06:33 09:24:32 -24:48 US$ 14000
8 Camilla Pedersen DEN 00:56:14 04:59:17 03:25:23 09:25:41 -05:32 US$ 12500
9 Caroline Steffen SUI 00:56:16 05:10:53 03:15:27 09:27:54 04:45 US$ 11000
10 Lucy Gossage GBR 01:05:08 05:02:40 03:15:51 09:28:36 -01:46 US$ 10000
11 Asa Lundstroem SWE 01:05:18 05:04:37 03:16:05 09:30:43 -15:44
12 Annabel Luxford AUS 00:56:08 05:04:00 03:27:50 09:32:43 -02:14
13 Mary Beth Ellis USA 00:56:16 04:59:29 03:33:37 09:33:34 04:18
14 Elizabeth Lyles USA 01:00:04 05:16:12 03:14:06 09:35:07 -05:08
15 Beth Gerdes USA 01:05:18 05:11:45 03:16:49 09:39:14 -09:54
16 Eva Wutti AUT 01:05:22 05:22:38 03:10:18 09:43:25 20:08
17 Britta Martin NZL 01:05:20 05:18:07 03:18:51 09:47:31 04:07
18 Kelly Williamson USA 00:59:54 05:35:52 03:10:12 09:51:01 09:26
19 Caitlin Snow USA 01:01:16 05:28:06 03:24:44 10:00:15 14:48
20 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 01:05:22 05:24:04 03:27:44 10:02:57 05:02
21 Mareen Hufe GER 01:05:12 04:59:15 03:55:52 10:05:01 16:07
22 Dede Griesbauer USA 00:56:39 05:11:08 03:56:34 10:09:49 07:35
23 Ruth Brennan Morrey USA 01:16:52 05:19:24 03:39:57 10:22:57 42:45
24 Laurel Wassner USA 00:57:42 05:36:59 03:51:30 10:33:49 37:48
25 Ariane Monticeli BRA 01:05:12 05:15:19 05:16:01 11:41:53 1:43:44
26 Meredith Kessler USA 00:56:13 05:37:39 05:44:57 12:26:22 1:50:05
Jodie Swallow GBR 00:55:04 04:58:48 DNF
Angela Naeth CAN 01:02:28 04:54:54 DNF
Gina Crawford NZL 00:56:18 05:21:52 DNF
Diana Riesler GER 01:04:20 05:14:59 DNF
Julia Gajer GER 00:57:38 05:42:55 DNF
Shiao-yu Li TWN 01:16:26 05:25:41 DNF
Astrid Stienen GER 01:09:53 05:44:15 DNF
Leanda Cave GBR 00:56:07 DNF
Haley Chura USA 00:56:22 DNF
Amanda Stevens USA 00:57:42 DNF
Heather Wurtele CAN 00:59:57 DNF
Mirinda Carfrae AUS 01:00:55 DNF
Tine Deckers BEL 01:05:12 DNF
Sofie Goos BEL 01:05:15 DNF

Photo Credit: Ironman

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