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Ironman Netherlands 2017 (Aug 6th) – Seedings

IMMaastrichtLogoAs you can see from the number of “*”s next to the athlete’s names in the start lists, a lot of them have registered for other races as well. There could be a number of changes to the athletes that are actually going to race in Maastricht.

Update August 2nd: The latest startlist shows a number of withdrawals in the female field.

Update August 4th: Updated startlist after the Pro meeting, crossing out athletes that haven’t been at the Pro Meeting and are extremely unlikely to race.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2015 Bas Diederen (NED) 08:27:18 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 09:39:24
2016 Igor Amorelli (BRA) 08:28:17 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 09:24:42

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Igor Amorelli BRA 00:46:16 04:40:41 02:57:15 08:28:17
2 Mark Oude Bennink NED 00:46:18 04:47:26 02:56:08 08:33:44
3 Bas Diederen NED 00:46:22 04:40:33 03:04:27 08:35:57

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Mary Beth Ellis USA 00:48:18 05:14:41 03:17:08 09:24:42
2 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 00:54:44 05:45:28 03:04:47 09:51:07
3 Tineke Van den Berg NED 01:00:38 05:24:25 03:33:14 10:03:30

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:27:18 Bas Diederen 2015-08-02
Swim overall 00:46:16 Igor Amorelli 2016-07-31
Bike overall 04:40:33 Bas Diederen 2016-07-31
Run overall 02:48:36 Diego Van Looy 2016-07-31
Total female 09:24:42 Mary Beth Ellis 2016-07-31
Swim female 00:48:18 Mary Beth Ellis 2016-07-31
Bike female 05:14:41 Mary Beth Ellis 2016-07-31
Run female 03:04:47 Saleta Castro Nogueira 2016-07-31

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Netherlands is – 06:59.

Race Adjustments for IM Netherlands

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2015 -08:19 01:00 -01:25 01:38 25 of 32 -08:19 01:00 -01:25 01:38
2016 -05:39 02:12 -07:14 -00:02 15 of 20 -06:59 01:36 -04:20 00:48

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Netherlands is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 40.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 9% of a typical Kona field.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. T2 Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Bas Diederen NED 08:34:22 08:32:35 00:46:41 04:43:05 05:34:45 02:59:37 41% +5% -54% (20) 45
2 17 Michael Weiss AUT 08:36:01 08:34:12 00:53:02 04:37:26 05:35:28 03:00:33 94% +5% -1% (18) 51
3 5 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 08:42:56 08:40:23 00:47:58 04:57:59 05:50:57 02:51:59 79% +4% -17% (16) 72
4 9 Pedro Gomes * POR 08:46:44 08:41:23 00:51:08 04:53:30 05:49:39 02:57:05 46% +1% -54% (28) 76
5 16 Philipp Koutny * SUI 08:48:55 08:49:57 00:50:08 04:45:46 05:40:54 03:08:01 35% +21% -44% (6) 103
6 10 Esben Hovgaard * DEN 08:49:12 08:49:49 00:51:51 04:49:42 05:46:33 03:02:39 56% +29% -16% (12) 101
7 2 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 08:55:41 08:54:43 00:52:29 04:53:49 05:51:19 03:04:22 79% +2% -19% (10) 123
8 18 Harry Wiltshire * GBR 08:58:07 09:02:44 00:46:41 05:00:21 05:52:02 03:06:05 25% +16% -59% (22) 151
9 4 Nick Baldwin * SEY 09:03:23 09:10:53 00:52:26 04:55:00 05:52:26 03:10:57 53% +0% -47% (20) 177
10 12 Cedric Lassonde FRA 09:06:46 09:05:19 00:53:45 04:59:03 05:57:47 03:08:59 73% +0% -27% (10) 165
11 3 Michael Van Cleven * BEL 09:09:21 09:22:57 00:48:59 04:45:59 05:39:59 03:29:22 37% +0% -63% (3) (211)
12 8 Martijn Dekker NED 09:12:49 09:26:31 00:47:26 04:53:40 05:46:07 03:26:42 38% +0% -62% (3) (229)
13 7 Ivan Caceres Lopez ESP 09:15:32 09:22:15 00:51:55 05:14:02 06:10:56 03:04:36 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (211)
14 14 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen * BEL 09:27:11 09:32:23 00:54:49 05:08:42 06:08:31 03:18:40 44% +0% -56% (8) 242
15 15 Olivier Esser BEL 09:28:03 09:34:56 00:53:53 05:10:34 06:09:27 03:18:36 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (247)
16 6 Rob Bobbaers BEL 10:11:59 10:27:11 01:00:44 05:17:45 06:23:29 03:48:30 42% +0% -58% (4) (301)
11 Thomas Kaiser * GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (3) (n/a)
  13 Albert Riba Ochoa ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 11% of a typical Kona field.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. T2 Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 62 Alexandra Tondeur BEL 09:35:52 09:32:54 00:58:19 05:21:27 06:24:46 03:11:06 57% +22% -21% (6) 38
2 72 Camilla Lindholm Borg SWE 09:48:27 09:49:19 01:06:33 05:20:16 06:31:49 03:16:38 55% +18% -27% (17) (65)
3 71 Celine Schaerer * SUI 09:48:38 09:50:17 00:50:10 05:30:22 06:25:33 03:23:05 72% +0% -28% (9) 66
4 69 Katja Konschak GER 09:49:30 09:53:45 00:52:59 05:34:30 06:32:29 03:17:01 43% +19% -38% (20) 70
5 61 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 09:55:09 09:52:49 00:55:20 05:40:21 06:40:41 03:14:28 62% +27% -11% (13) 67
6 68 Tine Holst * DEN 09:55:10 09:48:28 01:03:19 05:25:09 06:33:28 03:21:42 76% +9% -15% (15) 64
7 70 Shiao-yu Li * TWN 10:04:54 10:02:26 01:04:26 05:33:09 06:42:36 03:22:18 55% +12% -33% (15) 86
8 64 Brooke Brown CAN 10:05:37 10:00:43 01:00:53 05:32:38 06:38:31 03:27:06 40% +0% -60% (12) 79
9 66 Kate Comber * GBR 10:06:10 10:01:20 00:52:51 05:35:52 06:33:43 03:32:27 100% +0% -0% (5) 81
10 63 Rahel Bellinga * NED 10:32:39 10:32:18 01:04:43 05:26:55 06:36:38 03:56:01 71% +21% -8% (7) 142
11 65 Kate Bruck USA 10:38:55 10:39:37 01:01:54 05:55:25 07:02:19 03:36:36 37% +0% -63% (5) 149
12 67 Annabel Diawuoh * GER 11:19:36 11:34:18 01:24:39 05:55:12 07:24:51 03:54:45 66% +34% -0% (3) 157

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Michael Weiss: 37% (2-1)
  • Bas Diederen: 33% (2-1)
  • Miquel Blanchart Tinto: 15% (6-1)
  • Pedro Gomes: 4% (22-1)
  • Esben Hovgaard: 4% (27-1)
  • Philipp Koutny: 3% (28-1)
  • Harry Wiltshire: 3% (30-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Alexandra Tondeur: 34% (2-1)
  • Saleta Castro Nogueira: 16% (5-1)
  • Katja Konschak: 15% (6-1)
  • Camilla Lindholm Borg: 14% (6-1)
  • Celine Schaerer: 11% (8-1)
  • Tine Holst: 7% (13-1)
  • Shiao-yu Li: 3% (37-1)

July 2017 Updates to the Top 10 Ratings

After the completion of all Regional Championships in mid-July, I have updated the Top 10 Rankings.

TOP 10 Rated Male Athletes

Jan and Sebi are still the clear #1 and #2, both have slightly improved their ratings. With DNFs in their most recent races, the old #3 (Nils) and #4 (Brent) have dropped back to the end of the Top 10. Andi Böcherer has taken over #3, ensuring that the Germans still occupy the first three positions. Patrik Nilsson has climbed from #7 to #4, and Bart Aernouts (now #6), Tim Don (#7) and Tim O’Donnell (#8) have entered the Top 10 by winning their most recent races with fast times.

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # IM Races
1 Jan Frodeno GER 07:58:16 IM Austria on 2017-07-02 8
2 Sebastian Kienle GER 08:04:24 IM Germany on 2017-07-09 14
3 Andi Boecherer GER 08:12:34 IM Germany on 2017-07-09 15
4 Patrik Nilsson SWE 08:15:57 IM Germany on 2017-07-09 8
5 Andy Potts USA 08:17:26 IM Western Australia on 2016-12-04 16
6 Bart Aernouts BEL 08:18:32 Challenge Roth on 2017-07-09 11
7 Tim Don GBR 08:18:42 IM Brasil on 2017-05-28 4
8 Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:19:34 IM Boulder on 2017-06-11 14
9 Nils Frommhold GER 08:21:03 Challenge Roth on 2017-07-09 9
10 Brent McMahon CAN 08:21:04 IM Brasil on 2017-05-28 7

TOP 10 Rated Female Athletes

On the female side, Daniela and Rinny are on top of the rankings. (Rinny hasn’t raced for a while but won’t drop out before October.) Rachel Joyce is back to racing, re-claiming #3. The rest of the order is unchanged, with only Yvonne Van Vlerken re-entering the Top 10 after her fast race in Roth.

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # IM Races
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 08:42:55 Challenge Roth on 2017-07-09 10
2 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 09:01:36 IM Hawaii on 2016-10-08 14
3 Rachel Joyce GBR 09:05:49 IM Boulder on 2017-06-11 18
4 Kaisa Sali FIN 09:09:12 IM South Africa on 2017-04-02 4
5 Heather Jackson USA 09:12:04 IM Boulder on 2017-06-11 7
6 Meredith Kessler USA 09:14:01 IM New Zealand on 2017-03-04 25
7 Susie Cheetham GBR 09:15:04 IM Brasil on 2017-05-28 6
8 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 09:15:51 IM Western Australia on 2016-12-04 4
9 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 09:17:34 Challenge Roth on 2017-07-09 26
10 Lucy Gossage GBR 09:17:45 IM UK on 2017-07-16 16

TOP 10 Swim-Rated Ironman Distance Athletes

TOP 10 Swim-Rated Male Athletes

The old #1 Dylan McNeice hasn’t been able to race an Ironman for some time, he’s therefore dropped out of the rankings for now with Clayton Fettell moving into the #1 spot. Among some other small changes Brad Kahlefeldt has now completed three races and is eligible for a ranking, he’s now the #7 ranked swimmer.

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # IM Races
1 Clayton Fettell AUS 00:46:23 IM Cairns on 2017-06-11 8
2 Jan Frodeno GER 00:46:45 IM Austria on 2017-07-02 8
3 Andy Potts USA 00:47:00 IM Western Australia on 2016-12-04 16
4 Marko Albert EST 00:47:03 IM Germany on 2017-07-09 18
5 Denis Chevrot FRA 00:47:20 IM Western Australia on 2016-12-04 9
6 Michael Fox AUS 00:47:34 IM Cairns on 2017-06-11 5
7 Brad Kahlefeldt AUS 00:47:35 Challenge Roth on 2017-07-09 3
8 Timothy O’Donnell USA 00:47:38 IM Boulder on 2017-06-11 14
9 Andi Boecherer GER 00:47:39 IM Germany on 2017-07-09 15
10 Carlos Lopez Diaz ESP 00:47:45 IM Germany on 2017-07-09 5

TOP 10 Swim-Rated Female Athletes

Lucy Charles takes over the #1 spot for the female swimmers, she is way ahead of everyone else except Lauren Brandon who isn’t quite eligible for a valid ranking just yet. Haley Chura is also back in #3, having finished her first Ironman race in more than two years.

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # IM Races
1 Lucy Charles GBR 00:47:55 IM Germany on 2017-07-09 3
2 Jodie Cunnama GBR 00:49:34 IM Hawaii on 2016-10-08 9
3 Haley Chura USA 00:50:08 IM Brasil on 2017-05-28 9
4 Meredith Kessler USA 00:50:34 IM New Zealand on 2017-03-04 25
5 Amanda Stevens USA 00:51:17 IM Arizona on 2016-11-20 18
6 Mary Beth Ellis USA 00:51:31 IM Hawaii on 2016-10-08 19
7 Leanda Cave GBR 00:51:46 IM Arizona on 2016-11-20 20
8 Celine Schaerer SUI 00:51:50 IM Brasil on 2017-05-28 7
9 Annabel Luxford AUS 00:52:00 IM New Zealand on 2017-03-04 4
10 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:52:02 Challenge Roth on 2017-07-09 10

TOP 10 Bike-Rated Ironman Distance Athletes

TOP 10 Bike-Rated Male Athletes

Andy Starykowicz is still the best rated bike rider among the Ironman athletes with just a few minor shifts in the Top 10.

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # IM Races
1 Andrew Starykowicz USA 04:22:41 IM Texas on 2017-04-22 7
2 Sebastian Kienle GER 04:25:02 IM Germany on 2017-07-09 14
3 Cameron Wurf AUS 04:27:01 IM Cairns on 2017-06-11 4
4 Andi Boecherer GER 04:29:29 IM Germany on 2017-07-09 15
5 Jan Frodeno GER 04:30:22 IM Austria on 2017-07-02 8
6 Dougal Allan NZL 04:31:05 Challenge Roth on 2017-07-09 9
7 Michael Weiss AUT 04:31:22 IM Austria on 2017-07-02 17
8 Lionel Sanders CAN 04:32:01 IM Arizona on 2016-11-20 6
9 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 04:33:39 IM New Zealand on 2017-03-04 21
10 Boris Stein GER 04:34:08 IM South Africa on 2017-04-02 8

TOP 10 Bike-Rated Female Athletes

Not too many changes among the top ranked female bike riders either. Daniela continues to be the clear #1, Heather Jackson has now moved into #2.

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # IM Races
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 04:54:50 Challenge Roth on 2017-07-09 10
2 Heather Jackson USA 05:03:14 IM Boulder on 2017-06-11 7
3 Anja Beranek GER 05:03:17 IM Germany on 2017-07-09 9
4 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 05:03:29 Challenge Roth on 2017-07-09 26
5 Jodie Cunnama GBR 05:04:50 IM Hawaii on 2016-10-08 9
6 Annabel Luxford AUS 05:05:46 IM New Zealand on 2017-03-04 4
7 Rachel Joyce GBR 05:06:21 IM Boulder on 2017-06-11 17
8 Tine Deckers BEL 05:06:29 IM Texas on 2017-04-22 17
9 Mary Beth Ellis USA 05:06:41 IM Hawaii on 2016-10-08 19
10 Lucy Gossage GBR 05:06:47 IM UK on 2017-07-16 16

TOP 10 Run-Rated Ironman Distance Athletes

TOP 10 Run-Rated Male Athletes

While Jan Frodeno continues to be the top ranked runner, Patrik Nelson (new #2, up from #7) and Bart Aernouts (new #3, up from #6) have climbed the ranks.

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # IM Races
1 Jan Frodeno GER 02:46:22 IM Austria on 2017-07-02 8
2 Patrik Nilsson SWE 02:48:11 IM Germany on 2017-07-09 8
3 Bart Aernouts BEL 02:48:56 Challenge Roth on 2017-07-09 11
4 David McNamee GBR 02:48:59 IM South Africa on 2017-04-02 6
5 Matt Hanson USA 02:49:11 IM Texas on 2017-04-22 10
6 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 02:49:48 IM Lanzarote on 2017-05-20 8
7 Viktor Zyemtsev UKR 02:51:13 IM Austria on 2017-07-02 19
8 Jeff Symonds CAN 02:51:16 IM Germany on 2017-07-09 7
9 Ivan Rana ESP 02:51:25 IM Austria on 2017-07-02 12
10 Diego Van Looy BEL 02:51:33 IM South Africa on 2017-04-02 4

TOP 10 Run-Rated Female Athletes

No changes for Rinny in the #1 spot, but Kaisa is now ranked #2 after Daniela was struggling a bit towards the end of the marathon in Roth. Lisa Roberts has improved her rating running 2:56 in Roth, while Rachel Joyce is back among the best runners after her win in Boulder.

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # IM Races
1 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 02:57:04 IM Hawaii on 2016-10-08 14
2 Kaisa Sali FIN 03:03:27 IM South Africa on 2017-04-02 4
3 Daniela Ryf SUI 03:03:35 Challenge Roth on 2017-07-09 10
4 Kristin Moeller GER 03:04:06 IM Cairns on 2017-06-11 22
5 Lisa Roberts USA 03:04:59 Challenge Roth on 2017-07-09 16
6 Eva Wutti AUT 03:05:01 IM Austria on 2017-07-02 7
7 Kelly Williamson USA 03:05:11 IM Boulder on 2017-06-11 15
8 Ruth Brennan Morrey USA 03:06:42 IM Arizona on 2016-11-20 4
9 Susie Cheetham GBR 03:07:14 IM Brasil on 2017-05-28 6
10 Rachel Joyce GBR 03:07:22 IM Boulder on 2017-06-11 17

Kona Qualifying Before the Last July Races

This post looks at Kona Qualifying before the remaining July races:

Date Type Race Points
23-Jul IM Ironman Lake Placid – MPRO ONLY P-2000
23-Jul IM Ironman France P-2000
23-Jul 70.3 70.3 Calgary P-500
30-Jul IM Ironman Switzerland P-2000
30-Jul 70.3 70.3 Ecuador P-750
30-Jul IM Ironman Canada – WPRO ONLY P-2000

The following assessments are built on the available start lists posted by Ironman and assume that there are not going to be any late entries. For both male and the female qualifying, no one racing in Calgary is able to affect qualifying.

If you want to stay up-to-date on Kona Pro qualifying, please subscribe to the KPR Observer – I send out regular email updates analyzing the latest developments, and for the remainder of the qualifying season it’s available at a reduced price of 19$.

Women’s Qualifying

There are 28 Kona points slots (not counting the Automatic Qualifiers) for the female Pros in July. (There will be another 7 in August.) The following table lists the athletes currently occupying the last qualifying slots:

Rank Athlete Points Races Comments
21 Corbin, Linsey 4725 2+2 (1900/320) also registered for IM Canada
22 Hauschildt, Melissa 4700 1+1
23 Grohmann, Katharina 4470 3+1 (960/140) also registered for 70.3 Ecuador
24 Brandon, Lauren 4425 2+2 (1600/515)
25 Abraham, Corinne 4400 3+1 (960/240)
26 McCauley, Jocelyn 4385 3+0 (385/0)
Kessler, Meredith 4265 3+1 (235/750) Going to decline (pregnant)
27 Luxford, Annabel 4230 1+2 (960/1500) also registered for IM France
28 Chura, Haley 4180 1+2 (2890/540)

As you can see, I’m not counting Meredith Kessler as she is pregnant and will decline her slot. This also assumes that Lucy Gossage is going to decline her slot as she has said numerous times. (The “formal declines” can only happen after the end of July qualifying when Ironman asks athletes to accept their slots.)

With these reasonable assumptions, Haley Chura currently occupies the last qualifying slot with 4.180 points. (She has the same number of points as Kristin Möller but has the better tie-breaker top score.) The following table lists what each of the athletes that can still catch her will need, even if that is not necessarily enough for securing a slot (i.e. even if one can pass Haley, there can still be others that further leap ahead).

Athlete Points Races Registered for Needs
Bartlett, Nikki 4055 3+1 (855/640) IM France, but unlikely to race 3rd
Lester, Carrie 3535 1+1 IM France 5th
Mack, Danielle 3450 3+0 (170/0) IM Canada 4th
Li, Shiao-yu 3145 3+1 (540/320) IM Switzerland 2nd
Joyce, Rachel 3140 1+2 (2000/220) IM Canada 3rd
Elmore, Malindi 3130 2+2 (1070/140) IM Canada 3rd
Holst, Tine 3035 3+1 (340/400) IM Switzerland 2nd
Schaerer, Celine 3000 3+1 (515/345) IM Switzerland 1st
DiMichele Miller, Leslie 2905 3+1 (230/220) IM Canada 2nd

Men’s Qualifying

There are 40 Kona points slots (not counting the Automatic Qualifiers) for the male Pros in July. (There will be another 10 in August.) Here are the male Pros in the last qualifying ranks:

Rank Athlete Points Races Comments
27 Plese, David 3775 3+1 (960/785) also registered for IM Switzerland
28 Duelsen, Marc 3765 3+1 (540/540)
29 Vinhal, Thiago 3740 2+1 also registered for 70.3 Ecuador
30 Rana, Ivan 3740 2+2 (30/45)
31 Kotshegarov, Kirill 3710 3+0 (340/0)
32 Kastelein, Nick 3690 1+2 (1280/640) also registered for IM Switzerland
33 Thomas, Jesse 3420 2+2 (1100/400) also registered for 70.3 Ecuador
34 Molinari, Giulio 3395 3+1 (720/750)
35 Colucci, Reinaldo 3390 1+2 (2455/435) also registered for 70.3 Ecuador
36 Fox, Michael 3355 3+1 (405/320)
37 Tohara, Kaito 3330 3+1 (230/220) also registered for IM France
38 McMahon, Brent 3170 2+2 (340/605) also registered for IM Lake Placid
39 Evoe, Patrick 3163 3+1 (8/540)  also registered for 70.3 Ecuador
40 Wiltshire, Harry 3085 2+2 (305/280) also registered for IM Switzerland

Currently Harry Wiltshire occupies the last qualifying slot, but it’s safe to assume that some are going to score and more than 3.085 points will be needed. The following table lists athletes that can get to at least 3.300 points and the results needed for that:

Athlete Points Races Registered for Needs
Wild, Ruedi (Not Validated) 3310 1+2 (340/540) IM Switzerland Finish
Fontana, Daniel 2860 2+2 (515/135) IM France, IM Switzerland 5th
Croneborg, Fredrik 2820 1+2 (2000/320) IM France 6th
Sapunov, Daniil 2710 3+1 (685/345) IM Switzerland 3rd
Degasperi, Alessandro 2690 2+1 IM France, IM Switzerland 5th
Weiss, Michael 2665 3+1 (235/750) IM Lake Placid 4th
Van Berkel, Jan 2475 1+2 (2090/145) IM Switzerland 4th
Chrabot, Matt 2460 1+2 (1600/220) IM Lake Placid 4th
Chevrot, Denis 2450 2+2 (340/640) IM France 3rd
Leiferman, Chris 2420 1+2 (1280/500) IM Lake Placid 4th
Llanos, Eneko 2165 3+1 (215/10) IM France 2nd
Wurf, Cameron 1925 3+1 (40/35) IM France, IM Switzerland 2nd
Tollakson, TJ 1860 1+2 (1280/180) IM Lake Placid 2nd
Graves, Philip 1850 3+1 (5/220) IM Switzerland 2nd
Koutny, Philipp 1680 3+1 (170/140) IM Switzerland 1st
Zyemtsev, Viktor 1675 1+2 (1280/115) IM France 1st
Hovgaard, Esben 1565 3+1 (290/195) IM Switzerland 1st
Santos, Fellipe 1435 1+2 (855/180) IM Switzerland 1st

Ironman UK 2017 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Race day had very typical “UK summer weather” – lots of loud and winds, and some run but also some sunshine. The numbers were also pretty typical, the main feature of the UK course is a very slow bike. The bike adjustment of -15:16 (leading to an overall adjustment of -16:19) shows how tough the bike is – the course is about as slow as Lanzarote and about a quarter hour slower than Kona.

The winning time of Cyril Viennot was the fastest male time we’ve seen since the somewhat suspiciously quick times in 2011, while Lucy Gossage was a few minutes slower than last year.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Cyril Viennot FRA 00:48:57 04:52:17 02:53:44 08:41:07 -03:42 US$ 8,000 2000
2 Will Clarke GBR 00:47:56 05:01:44 02:46:28 08:47:03 00:05 US$ 4,000 1600
3 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 00:55:50 04:57:04 02:48:49 08:48:16 00:15 US$ 3,000 1280
4 Bryan McCrystal IRL 00:57:09 04:55:03 03:11:51 09:10:31 -09:26 US$ 2,500 960
5 Nicholas Ward Munoz GBR 00:57:04 05:16:11 02:56:09 09:16:52 04:28 US$ 1,500 720
6 Pedro Gomes POR 00:52:03 05:27:14 03:00:04 09:25:44 33:22 US$ 1,000 540
7 Fraser Cartmell GBR 00:52:31 05:20:54 03:13:45 09:33:49 23:33   405
  Harry Wiltshire GBR 00:47:52 05:18:54   DNF      
  Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 00:49:38 05:29:27   DNF      
  Romain Guillaume FRA 00:47:54     DNF      
  Mark Bowstead NZL 00:48:54     DNF      

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Lucy Gossage GBR 01:01:15 05:23:07 03:09:15 09:39:48 05:16 US$ 8,000 2000
2 Diana Riesler GER 00:58:53 05:27:40 03:08:30 09:41:56 -04:25 US$ 4,000 1600
3 Nikki Bartlett GBR 01:01:17 05:27:35 03:23:09 09:59:08 -02:23 US$ 3,000 1280
4 Brooke Brown CAN 01:01:22 05:42:49 03:28:18 10:21:16 11:14 US$ 2,500 960
  Hannah Drewett GBR 00:52:01 06:13:04   DNF      

Kona Qualifying Implications

On the male side, the Top 3 finishers have now secured their Kona slots. Both Cyril Viennot (4.485) and Will Clarke (4.645) are well ahead of the projected cutoff of 3.500. Kyrill Kotshegarov (3.710) is also ahead of the expected cutoff and will quite likely get a July slot as well, but has to wait a bit longer to be completely safe.

On the female side Lucy Gossage was already safe before the race (but said she’s going to decline her slot), but Diana Riesler is now safe for a July slot. Nikki Bartlett is just short of a July slot, she has to hope for a few rolldowns or the August cutoff.

Ironman Switzerland 2017 (July 30th) – Seedings

IMSUI_LogoPrevious Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Christoph Mauch (SUI) 08:21:48 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:10:51
2006 Stefan Riesen (SUI) 08:16:50 Rebecca Preston (AUS) 09:24:18
2007 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:24:58 Rebecca Preston (AUS) 09:20:40
2008 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:16:05 Sibylle Matter (SUI) 09:30:12
2009 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:20:00 Sibylle Matter (SUI) 09:14:35
2010 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:12:40 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:00:04
2011 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:19:51 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:03:26
2012 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:17:13 Erika Csomor (HUN) 09:20:16
2013 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:33:39 Anja Beranek (GER) 09:21:31
2014 Boris Stein (GER) 08:33:02 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 09:13:30
2015 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:21:19 Beth Gerdes (USA) 09:21:05
2016 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:17:04 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 08:51:50

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:55:39 04:31:01 02:47:07 08:17:04
2 Timo Bracht GER 00:53:17 04:33:02 02:54:34 08:24:13
3 Jan Van Berkel SUI 00:52:56 04:33:37 02:59:23 08:29:12

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:53:16 04:46:30 03:07:31 08:51:50
2 Emma Bilham SUI 00:57:41 05:03:58 03:16:36 09:21:48
3 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 01:01:05 05:07:02 03:15:37 09:28:12

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:12:40 Ronnie Schildknecht 2010-07-25
Swim overall 00:45:29 Benjamin Sanson 2005-07-15
Bike overall 04:23:58 Stefan Riesen 2006-07-02
Run overall 02:41:58 Clemente Alonso McKernan 2011-07-10
Total female 08:51:50 Daniela Ryf 2016-07-24
Swim female 00:51:23 Celine Schaerer 2014-07-27
Bike female 04:43:53 Karin Thuerig 2010-07-25
Run female 03:00:27 Kristin Moeller 2014-07-27

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Switzerland is 05:58.

Race Adjustments for IM Switzerland

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 -06:34 01:11 03:25 -09:12 42 -06:34 01:11 03:25 -09:12
2006 13:38 01:59 06:01 02:44 35 03:32 01:35 04:43 -03:14
2007 19:39 -00:21 12:47 01:55 35 08:54 00:56 07:24 -01:31
2008 12:22 00:12 03:08 02:39 30 of 40 09:46 00:45 06:20 -00:29
2009 16:32 -00:11 08:33 04:06 37 11:07 00:34 06:47 00:26
2010 08:54 -00:32 06:45 03:19 30 of 38 10:45 00:23 06:47 00:55
2011 10:56 -01:55 02:05 06:03 20 10:47 00:03 06:06 01:39
2012 08:20 -02:34 03:50 01:39 31 10:28 -00:16 05:49 01:39
2013 -08:16 -04:44 03:28 -06:20 38 08:23 -00:46 05:34 00:46
2014 -02:13 -03:17 06:06 -01:38 28 of 36 07:20 -01:01 05:37 00:32
2015 -03:55 -02:25 01:59 -04:06 24 of 38 06:18 -01:09 05:17 00:06
2016 02:18 -03:20 06:56 -01:03 30 of 46 05:58 -01:20 05:25 00:01

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Switzerland is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 40.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 15% of a typical Kona field.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. T2 Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:15:30 08:25:01 00:53:23 04:29:15 05:27:38 02:47:52 83% +1% -16% (32) 21
2 31 Will Clarke GBR 08:16:16 08:31:03 00:49:54 04:35:27 05:30:21 02:45:55 9% +57% -34% (6) 39
3 29 Nick Kastelein AUS 08:18:14 08:31:28 00:48:24 04:29:23 05:22:48 02:55:26 100% +0% -0% (2) (42)
4 35 Alessandro Degasperi * ITA 08:22:39 08:28:21 00:52:25 04:37:58 05:35:23 02:47:16 78% +0% -22% (10) 30
5 2 Jan Van Berkel SUI 08:25:20 08:37:57 00:50:01 04:32:12 05:27:14 02:58:06 46% +25% -29% (14) 64
6 3 Ruedi Wild SUI 08:26:33 08:30:00 00:50:00 04:35:40 05:30:40 02:55:53 43% +32% -25% (4) 37
7 32 David Plese SLO 08:27:36 08:33:49 00:53:49 04:34:48 05:33:37 02:53:59 86% +9% -5% (22) 47
8 25 Daniel Fontana * ITA 08:28:20 08:34:26 00:50:24 04:36:51 05:32:15 02:56:05 66% +0% -34% (15) 52
9 18 Cameron Wurf * AUS 08:29:41 08:45:13 00:50:03 04:20:40 05:15:43 03:13:58 18% +82% -0% (4) 86
10 17 Daniil Sapunov UKR 08:33:42 08:48:48 00:49:39 04:45:06 05:39:45 02:53:57 80% +20% -0% (5) 100
11 30 Philipp Koutny SUI 08:36:24 08:49:57 00:52:11 04:32:51 05:30:03 03:06:21 35% +21% -44% (6) 103
12 15 Esben Hovgaard DEN 08:36:40 08:49:49 00:53:59 04:36:39 05:35:38 03:01:02 56% +29% -16% (12) 101
13 8 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:39:06 08:51:30 00:54:05 04:41:45 05:40:50 02:58:16 35% +5% -60% (28) 111
14 24 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:39:20 08:53:38 00:51:37 04:40:41 05:37:18 03:02:02 50% +25% -25% (22) 118
15 13 Samuel Huerzeler SUI 08:44:46 08:59:30 00:54:00 04:45:16 05:44:15 03:00:31 56% +44% -0% (8) 144
16 5 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:45:23 08:57:22 00:48:40 04:47:06 05:40:45 03:04:38 27% +18% -55% (21) 136
17 16 Fellipe Santos BRA 08:48:40 09:06:12 00:49:04 04:49:46 05:43:50 03:04:50 38% +62% -0% (2) (167)
18 36 Daniel Niederreiter AUT 08:50:41 08:57:55 00:52:38 04:47:26 05:45:03 03:05:38 67% +0% -33% (15) 138
19 6 Philip Graves GBR 08:51:34 08:55:32 00:50:13 04:31:12 05:26:25 03:25:09 100% +0% -0% (8) 127
20 4 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:53:31 09:05:03 01:01:13 04:43:51 05:50:05 03:03:26 89% +10% -2% (65) 162
21 26 Allister Caird AUS 08:55:55 09:24:41 01:01:03 04:39:33 05:45:36 03:10:19 12% +20% -67% (6) 216
22 22 John Manuel Galindo Rooney ESP 09:12:13 09:42:51 00:52:28 05:01:59 05:59:27 03:12:46 4% +37% -58% (5) 263
23 28 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 09:12:21 09:32:23 00:56:45 04:54:29 05:56:15 03:16:06 44% +0% -56% (8) 243
24 11 Urs Mueller SUI 09:15:26 09:25:29 00:55:51 04:52:54 05:53:45 03:21:41 79% +0% -21% (4) 223
25 14 David Jilek * CZE 09:27:52 09:37:46 00:59:29 04:56:03 06:00:33 03:27:19 79% +12% -9% (9) 255
26 7 Lukas Polan CZE 09:32:34 09:51:47 01:04:09 05:03:43 06:12:53 03:19:41 22% +36% -42% (14) 276
27 21 Sebastian Pedraza ITA 09:45:57 09:54:30 00:58:21 05:02:04 06:05:25 03:40:32 56% +2% -42% (15) 280
28 19 Gergely Nagy HUN 09:50:40 10:04:32 00:54:44 04:57:03 05:56:47 03:53:53 60% +6% -34% (9) 293
29 34 Michal Ivanco SVK 09:58:09 10:26:54 01:20:43 05:08:21 06:34:04 03:24:05 50% +0% -50% (2) (303)
30 9 Charles Martin FRA 10:10:20 10:29:53 00:54:03 05:09:49 06:08:52 04:01:28 26% +0% -74% (3) (306)
31 33 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:10:30 11:57:35 01:12:43 05:36:58 06:54:41 04:15:49 25% +24% -50% (41) 315
10 Thomas Kaiser GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (3) (n/a)
12 Alexander Chikin RUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
23 Alexander Polizzi AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
27 Lubos Truhlar CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 11% of a typical Kona field.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. T2 Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 43 Carrie Lester * AUS 09:10:48 09:25:29 00:55:21 05:00:12 06:00:32 03:10:16 48% +26% -26% (21) 22
2 41 Emma Bilham * SUI 09:24:00 09:40:22 00:55:31 05:09:26 06:09:57 03:14:03 81% +0% -19% (5) 49
3 42 Celine Schaerer SUI 09:29:39 09:50:17 00:51:09 05:12:55 06:09:05 03:20:34 72% +0% -28% (9) 65
4 55 Laurel Wassner USA 09:33:18 09:44:50 00:55:41 05:18:26 06:19:06 03:14:12 63% +16% -21% (10) 57
5 47 Tine Holst DEN 09:41:05 09:48:28 01:05:54 05:10:21 06:21:15 03:19:50 76% +9% -15% (15) 63
6 45 Regula Rohrbach SUI 09:49:06 09:59:20 00:58:45 05:03:05 06:06:50 03:42:16 45% +10% -46% (12) (77)
7 53 Shiao-yu Li TWN 09:50:35 10:02:26 01:07:04 05:18:03 06:30:07 03:20:28 55% +12% -33% (15) 85
46 Nina Derron SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
49 Martina Kunz SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Ronnie Schildknecht: 51% (1-1)
  • Will Clarke: 16% (5-1)
  • Alessandro Degasperi: 12% (7-1)
  • Jan Van Berkel: 8% (11-1)
  • Nick Kastelein: 6% (16-1)
  • David Plese: 5% (18-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Carrie Lester: 55% (1-1)
  • Emma Bilham: 22% (4-1)
  • Celine Schaerer: 10% (9-1)
  • Laurel Wassner: 8% (11-1)
  • Tine Holst: 4% (27-1)

Kona Qualifying

A lot of male athletes are still in need of “just a few more” points to qualify for Kona:

  • Ronnie Schildknecht is already safe, his main goal will be his tenth (!!) win at IM Switzerland.
  • David Please and Nick Kastelein are also well placed, I would be surprised to see them race. (If they decide to race, they won’t need the points anyways. Any finish by Nick would improve his total.)
  • 8th (305 points) or better: Rudi Wild
  • 5th (720 points) or better: Harry Wiltshire, Daniel Fontana
  • 4th (960 points) or better: Alessandro Degasperi, Jan Van Berkel
  • 3rd (1.280 points) or better: Daniil Sapunov
Will Clarke is also on the startlist, but highly unlikely to race after his second place at IM UK. A few others have a chance to secure a Kona slot with an unlikely win in Zürich (Philip Graves, Philipp Koutny, Esben Hovgard, Fellipe Santos)

There are also three females that want to make it to Kona by placing well in Zürich: Celine Schärer (3.000), Tine Holst (3.035) and Shiao-Yu Li (3.145) already have four races in their current total, so they will all need to finish in second place (1.600 points) or better. (Clearly, no more than two of them will be able to).  Carrie Lester is on the start list as well and could secure a slot with a third or maybe even a fourth place, but she probably only registered as a back up for France one week before. (She won’t be racing after winning IM France.)

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