Author Archive | Thorsten

Kona 2019 Kings & Queens: Lucy Charles-Barclay

Kona Kings & Queens is a collaboration project with sports photographer James Mitchell to highlight some of the Pros racing in Kona. James supplies his awesome pictures (for more check his Instagram account), I add some data and commentary.

JM QoK Lucy Charles

LucyPoints

LucyBibF2

Lucy’s Kona races in the last two years are almost carbon-copies of each other: Win the swim (posting a new swim course record in 2018), then riding at the front of the race for most of the bike leg, being overtaken by Daniela Ryf at about 160k on the bike, then running well and hold on to second place in the marathon. If this year is going to be different, can she improve on second place or will she end up further back in the field?

Her 2019 racing so far has been almost flawless: She won Ironman South Africa even though the swim was shortened, minimizing her swim strength. At Challenge Samorin and Challenge Roth she took the lead in the swim as usual, after which no one in the world-class fields was able to reduce the gap to an extent that her win was in danger. In Roth she posted a new overall PR of 8:31:09 which is also the fastest long-distance time this season, and both her marathons in South African and Roth were under three hours. The only race she wasn’t able to win this year was 70.3 Worlds where she was quickly caught on the bike and then received a drafting penalty when she drifted into another athlete’s draft zone in a slight downhill and didn’t pass her. Even with a 5-minute penalty she still finished in fifth place.

In her last three IM-distance races she has shown that she is no longer “just” a swim specialist. She’s been consistently riding one of the fastest splits and her run has improved as well. As she continues to outswim most of her competition by about six minutes, it will require a very patient “catching up all day long” strategy to beat her. The last two years Daniela Ryf has been able to catch up to her on the bike – maybe this year Lucy will ride even harder to at least make it a race well into the marathon. The rest of the field will have to work harder than in the past to reduce the gap on the bike. It’ll be very interesting to see how the gaps between Lucy and the rest of the field will develop and if anyone other than Daniela will have a chance to overtake her this year.


This is an excerpt from my “Kona 2019 Rating Report”. You can download your copy here.

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Kona 2019 Kings & Queens: Bart Aernouts

Kona Kings & Queens is a collaboration project with sports photographer James Mitchell to highlight some of the Pros racing in Kona. James supplies his awesome pictures (for more check his Instagram account), I add some data and commentary.

JM KoK Bart Aernouts

BartPoints

BibBartM2

In the last few years, Bart has been racing well in Kona, with a second-place finish last year as his best result. Still, the quiet Belgian probably won’t factor in many race predictions. This is partly because he is losing a fair chunk of time in the swim (around 6 minutes to Jan Frodeno), and while he has improved his bike in recent years, he hasn’t yet become a “bike powerhouse” on the level of Sebastian Kienle or Cam Wurf. His real strength is on the run, especially in the Kona heat. Last year he was able to bridge up to the big bike group that included Patrick Lange and then posted the second-fastest run.

Bart hasn’t had a spectacular 2019 result, but his 6th place at 70.3 Worlds indicates that his Kona form is developing nicely. If he manages a decent swim, he’ll probably have good company in the deep Kona field. A slightly more aggressive bike than in the past could help him start the run in a good position. He’s one of the few athletes with a sub-2:45 run potential in Kona, and that run speed is what he’ll need in order to finish on the Kona podium.


This is an excerpt from my “Kona 2019 Rating Report”. You can download your copy here.

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Kona 2019 Kings & Queens: Sarah True

Kona Kings & Queens is a collaboration project with sports photographer James Mitchell to highlight some of the Pros racing in Kona. James supplies his awesome pictures (for more check his Instagram account), I add some data and commentary.

JM QoK Sarah True

SarahPoints

SarahBibF5

Sarah was fourth at the 2012 Olympic Games in London. After a disappointing DNF at the 2016 Rio Olympic Games she was able to make a great transition to long-distance racing, earning two more fourth places in big races, at 2017 70.3 Worlds in Chattanooga and in Kona 2018.

When she crossed the finish line in Kona 2018, she was clearly struggling and not 100% coherent anymore. She was struggling even more in this year’s Ironman races: She DNF’d on the run at IM Cairns and at IM Frankfurt when her body shut down and she wasn’t able to continue. Finally, in her third Ironman start in as many months, she was able to secure her Kona slot with a second-place finish at IM Mont Tremblant.

As far as I know it’s still a mystery what has created her problems on the run. This makes it very hard to predict what she’ll be able to do in this year’s Kona race and how she’s going to approach the race. The first half of the race will probably see her well-positioned after the swim, last year she was part of a small chase group behind the “super fish” Lucy Charles and Lauren Brandon. In her past Ironman races she’s been using that time to get settled on the bike and to start her attacks in the second half of the bike.

But her main strength in her 2018 Ironman races has been a great marathon, and she hasn’t yet been able to show that in 2019. I will closely follow her Kona race and especially her run, hoping she’ll be able to fight hard for the whole marathon – and then still be able to cross the finish line with a satisfied smile.


This is an excerpt from my “Kona 2019 Rating Report”. You can download your copy here.

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Kona 2019 Kings & Queens: David McNamee

Kona Kings & Queens is a collaboration project with sports photographer James Mitchell to highlight some of the Pros racing in Kona. James supplies his awesome pictures (for more check his Instagram account), I add some data and commentary.

JM KoK David McNamee

DavidPoints

DavidBibM3

After his third place in Kona 2017, there wasn’t much mention of David McNamee as a podium contender for 2018. That only changed in the last 90 minutes of the run when it was clear that David had another great marathon and would be able to run once more through most of the field.

We probably also won’t hear many mentions of David in this year’s podium picks. He didn’t have a good race in South Africa, the best result was his validated Kona podium slot. Challenge Roth wasn’t much better, but at least he posted the fastest run split.

David’s consistent results in Kona (11th, 13th, 3rd & 3rd from 2015 to 2018) are based on his strong marathons (2:49, 2:49, 2:45 and 2:46) – and a strong run will also be needed for a great 2019 Kona result.


This is an excerpt from my “Kona 2019 Rating Report”. You can download your copy here.

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Ironman Malaysia 2019 (Oct 26th) – Seedings

IMMalaysiaPrevious Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2006 Jason Shortis (AUS) 08:36:33 Sonja Tajsich (GER) 10:08:13
2007 Xavier Le Floch (FRA) 08:43:52 Nicole Leder (GER) 09:42:33
2008 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:34:42 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:29:21
2009 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:26:48 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:21:10
2010 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:22:31 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:23:33
2014 Patrik Nilsson (SWE) 08:41:53 Diana Riesler (GER) 09:26:38
2015 Mike Aigroz (SUI) 08:52:02 Diana Riesler (GER) 09:37:06
2016 Fredrik Croneborg (SWE) 08:39:12 Diana Riesler (GER) 09:25:34
2017 Romain Guillaume (FRA) 08:32:54 Diana Riesler (GER) 09:19:01
2018 Daniil Sapunov (UKR) 08:33:36 Mareen Hufe (GER) 09:25:21

Last Race’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Daniil Sapunov UKR 00:48:42 04:40:46 03:00:19 08:33:36
2 Kaito Tohara JPN 00:52:50 04:52:40 03:06:08 08:55:13
3 Urs Mueller SUI 00:52:43 04:53:37 03:18:59 09:09:11

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Mareen Hufe GER 00:57:54 05:00:13 03:22:59 09:25:21
2 Simona Krivankova CZE 01:05:29 05:22:21 03:23:09 09:55:35
3 Federica De Nicola ITA 01:00:27 05:14:52 03:38:07 09:57:28

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:10:35 Bryan Rhodes 2002-01-27
Swim overall 00:46:19 Dylan McNeice 2014-09-27
Bike overall 04:21:01 Marino Vanhoenacker 2010-02-27
Run overall 02:56:27 Jason Shortis 2006-02-26
Total female 09:19:01 Diana Riesler 2017-11-11
Swim female 00:53:12 Maki Nishiuchi 2009-02-28
Bike female 04:48:08 Belinda Granger 2009-02-28
Run female 03:15:02 Gurutze Frades Larralde 2015-11-14

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Malaysia is – 06:48.

Race Adjustments for IM Malaysia

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 -01:00 00:15 08:49 -10:05 17 of 22 -01:00 00:15 08:49 -10:05
2007 01:00 -00:24 07:35 -06:10 30 of 37 -00:00 -00:04 08:12 -08:08
2008 -06:21 -02:13 06:38 -10:47 21 of 22 -02:07 -00:47 07:41 -09:01
2014 -16:42 -02:01 -02:19 -12:23 21 of 27 -05:46 -01:06 05:11 -09:52
2015 -18:00 -01:37 -01:40 -14:44 42 of 55 -08:13 -01:12 03:49 -10:50
2016 -04:28 -00:34 01:33 -05:27 27 of 34 -07:35 -01:06 03:27 -09:57
2017 02:38 -00:21 04:23 -01:25 21 of 27 -06:07 -00:59 03:35 -08:44
2018 -11:33 -00:19 -04:06 -07:09 18 of 21 -06:48 -00:54 02:38 -08:32

Kona slots and Prize Money

IM Malaysia has 1m+1f Pro Kona slot(s). It has a total prize purse of 25.000 US$, paying 6 deep.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 5% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 20 Javier Gomez ESP 08:20:56 08:17:20 00:47:29 04:32:05 05:24:34 02:56:22 100% +0% -0% (2) (13)
2 23 Andy Potts USA 08:27:27 08:20:13 00:48:46 04:30:46 05:24:32 03:02:55 98% +2% -0% (22) 16
3 33 Philipp Koutny SUI 08:30:57 08:28:40 00:50:07 04:31:29 05:26:36 03:04:21 34% +37% -29% (13) 47
4 21 Daniil Sapunov UKR 08:37:47 08:46:29 00:49:15 04:39:44 05:33:59 03:03:48 55% +18% -27% (13) 103
5 22 Romain Guillaume FRA 08:42:49 08:43:06 00:49:22 04:31:54 05:26:16 03:16:33 40% +2% -58% (39) 86
6 46 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 08:42:50 08:36:48 00:49:01 04:41:26 05:35:27 03:07:23 66% +0% -34% (17) 66
7 31 Samuel Huerzeler SUI 08:44:43 08:43:30 00:53:40 04:41:14 05:39:54 03:04:49 81% +19% -0% (14) 88
8 26 Thiago Vinhal BRA 08:45:12 08:46:58 00:50:11 04:47:26 05:42:36 03:02:36 52% +17% -31% (19) 105
9 38 Kaito Tohara JPN 08:50:31 08:58:29 00:53:32 04:47:28 05:45:59 03:04:32 28% +23% -49% (13) 149
10 41 Per Van Vlerken GER 08:50:46 08:49:27 00:50:31 04:41:28 05:36:59 03:13:47 58% +3% -38% (29) 113
11 28 Blake Kappler AUS 08:58:58 09:00:12 00:52:16 04:41:29 05:38:45 03:20:13 75% +0% -25% (3) (155)
12 24 Nick Baldwin SEY 09:00:20 08:53:55 00:54:01 04:44:26 05:43:26 03:16:54 74% +0% -26% (24) (128)
13 27 Thomas Bosch GER 09:12:02 09:10:49 00:59:57 04:52:12 05:57:09 03:14:53 57% +17% -26% (8) 185
14 25 Balazs Csoke HUN 09:17:25 09:10:51 00:48:39 05:04:09 05:57:49 03:19:36 68% +3% -28% (34) 186
15 30 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:27:44 09:30:32 01:00:59 04:54:32 06:00:31 03:27:13 71% +20% -9% (24) 232
16 40 Zsombor Deak ROM 09:30:07 09:38:18 00:57:24 05:10:49 06:13:14 03:16:53 25% +65% -10% (6) 245
17 44 Freddy Lampret ZAF 09:33:29 10:09:07 00:54:45 04:55:17 05:55:02 03:38:27 23% +4% -73% (16) (264)
18 32 David Jilek CZE 09:38:28 09:38:41 00:58:56 05:00:14 06:04:10 03:34:18 89% +6% -4% (10) 246
19 39 Diego Vasquez ECU 09:44:21 09:51:36 00:55:58 05:02:14 06:03:12 03:41:09 100% +0% -0% (2) (254)
20 29 Robert Brundish GBR 10:05:00 10:24:49 00:56:14 04:39:42 05:40:57 04:24:03 15% +0% -85% (3) (269)
21 45 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:37:54 12:05:34 01:14:10 05:38:08 06:57:18 04:40:36 35% +10% -54% (55) 275
22 37 Josef Svoboda CZE 11:40:58 11:55:59 01:15:11 05:51:54 07:12:05 04:28:53 19% +25% -56% (22) 274
35 Imanol Sagarzazu ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (3) (n/a)
36 Petr Soukup CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 1% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 2 Jocelyn McCauley USA 09:10:10 09:14:17 00:53:41 04:57:22 05:56:04 03:14:06 19% +49% -32% (13) 15
2 10 Jenny Schulz GER 09:38:12 09:41:48 01:03:43 05:11:52 06:20:35 03:17:37 22% +76% -2% (6) 59
3 1 Simona Krivankova CZE 09:53:00 09:51:31 01:07:07 05:16:22 06:28:29 03:24:31 97% +3% -0% (13) 71
4 6 Federica De Nicola ITA 09:54:50 09:59:55 01:01:52 05:10:50 06:17:42 03:37:08 64% +0% -36% (6) 77
5 12 Naomi Washizu JPN 10:02:14 10:09:42 01:01:38 05:30:45 06:37:23 03:24:51 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (92)
6 7 Tessa Kortekaas NED 10:03:22 10:11:56 01:02:47 05:22:33 06:30:21 03:33:01 46% +0% -54% (2) (97)
7 5 Claire Davis AUS 10:29:39 10:37:28 00:54:21 05:43:57 06:43:18 03:46:21 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (120)
8 Magda Nieuwoudt ZAF n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
9 Katie Kyme AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
11 Lisa Tyack AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Javier Gomez: 31% (2-1)
  • Philipp Koutny: 25% (3-1)
  • Andy Potts: 21% (4-1)
  • Daniil Sapunov: 17% (5-1)
  • Jeremy Jurkiewicz: 2% (40-1)
  • Thiago Vinhal: 2% (56-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Jocelyn McCauley: 39% (2-1)
  • Jenny Schulz: 32% (2-1)
  • Simona Krivankova: 20% (4-1)
  • Federica De Nicola: 9% (11-1)
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