Archive | IM South Africa

Ironman South Africa 2019 – Analyzing Results

IMSA_LogoCourse Conditions

This year’s race in Port Elizabeth started with a shortened swim, apparently the conditions were unsafe on parts of the course, especially for the weaker agegroupers. (Ironman South Africa is a normally single large loop swim.) I wasn’t on site so I can’t have an informed opinion on whether it would have been possible to have a full swim at least for the Pros. It’ll be interesting to hear comments from the leading swimmers on that. The official swim distance was 1.6k, and the times seem very slow for that – probably a result of the hard conditions. Even if the swim were half the normal distance, the times would still be slow. (Josh swam just under 25 minutes so that would have been 50 minutes – he was seeded to swim under 48 minutes in Port Elizabeth.)

Even though the bike course has changed significantly to previous years, the times were comparable to earlier years. The run was very fast, it was roughly five minutes quicker than in earlier years. This might be influenced by the shortened swim, but in all likelihood the course was a bit short. We’ll have to wait a bit for GPS tracks to be posted in the next few days. (It seems that the run was about 1k short, corresponding to roughly 4 minutes of run time.)

Of course the shortened swim invalidates all time comparisons to other years or races. Nonetheless I have calculated how the athletes times stacked up to what could have been expected from them, resulting in the “Diff to expected” columns and the coloring of the numbers (green=faster than expected, red = slower than expected). The background colors show the fastest athletes in each of the legs.

Male Race Results

Once again, Josh Amberger was leading after the swim, but with the shortened course he only had 30 seconds on the field and was quickly caught by a large group. Andreas Dreitz needed the first of two bike loops to bridge up to the lead group, but once he did the group got smaller and smaller. In the final 20k of the bike Ben Hoffman built a gap of 90 seconds to a small group of four athletes.

Once on the run, Ben was extending his lead bit by bit – in the end he ran a 2:39 marathon and won by almost six minutes over Nils Frommhold who was the best runner of the chase group. Third and fourth place went to Michael Weiss and Eneko Llanos who caught most of the chase group with solid marathons. As they were already qualified, the next two spots were also Kona qualifying places, these went to Maurice Clavel and Andreas Dreitz. Josh Amberger ran a solid sub-3 marathon but that was only good enough for seventh place, just short of a Kona slot.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money
1 Ben Hoffman USA 00:26:03 04:24:24 02:39:17 07:34:19 -13:02 US$ 30,000
2 Nils Frommhold GER 00:25:48 04:26:23 02:43:43 07:40:12 -07:07 US$ 15,000
3 Michael Weiss AUT 00:30:05 04:24:18 02:43:41 07:42:35 -03:06 US$ 8,000
4 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:25:56 04:28:24 02:45:57 07:44:59 -14:23 US$ 6,500
5 Maurice Clavel GER 00:25:54 04:26:26 02:49:03 07:45:29 -07:14 US$ 5,000
6 Andreas Dreitz GER 00:26:20 04:25:23 02:49:01 07:45:38 -06:36 US$ 3,500
7 Josh Amberger AUS 00:24:59 04:27:00 02:56:00 07:52:19 -09:50 US$ 2,500
8 Matt Trautman ZAF 00:27:17 04:33:56 02:49:00 07:54:22 -05:17 US$ 2,000
9 Bart Aernouts BEL 00:28:36 04:37:28 02:46:01 07:56:20 15:11 US$ 1,500
10 Giulio Molinari ITA 00:25:42 04:29:12 03:02:22 08:02:13 00:18 US$ 1,000
11 David McNamee GBR 00:26:00 04:52:13 02:41:24 08:04:47 18:26
12 Samuel Huerzeler SUI 00:28:32 04:43:12 02:51:52 08:08:50 03:30
13 Gustavo Rodriguez Iglesias ESP 00:28:30 04:35:19 03:01:31 08:10:52 02:59
14 Sebastian Norberg SWE 00:30:09 04:42:38 02:53:40 08:11:00 -08:55
15 James Cunnama ZAF 00:28:16 04:36:56 03:03:05 08:12:26 25:14
16 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 00:26:54 04:43:46 03:04:35 08:20:04 -09:53
17 Reece Barclay GBR 00:25:51 04:55:46 02:53:49 08:20:29 08:37
18 Victor Arroyo Bugallo ESP 00:30:07 04:52:54 02:52:34 08:20:45 06:51
19 Paul Ruttmann AUT 00:29:37 04:46:25 03:14:15 08:35:27 n/a
20 Vinicius Canhedo BRA 00:29:38 04:57:38 03:08:18 08:41:16 02:43
21 Gerhard De Bruin ZAF 00:30:20 05:10:08 03:01:46 08:47:44 00:34
22 Eneko Elosegui ESP 00:31:04 05:09:04 03:08:24 08:55:23 01:20
Tim Van Berkel AUS 00:25:53 04:44:48 DNF
Tim Don GBR 00:25:32 DNF
Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:25:41 DNF
Patrik Nilsson SWE 00:25:56 DNF
Alessandro Degasperi ITA 00:26:07 DNF
Markus Thomschke GER 00:28:28 DNF

Female Race Results

When Lucy Charles-Barclay exited the swim, she was in the lead, but Lauren Brandon had been able to stay on her feet. They stayed in the lead for the first half of the bike, until German Anja Ippach had closed her four minute gap after the swim. Anja continued to ride strong in the second half of the bike and started the run with a three minute lead over Lucy and Lauren. By then the rest of the field was more than fifteen minutes back. Once on the run it was obvious that Lucy was the strongest runner of the three leading ladies, and towards the end of the first of four run loops she was able to take the lead. By then Gurutze Frades and Annah Watkinson were starting to close the gap to the front, in the end they were able to run fantastic 2:52 and 2:55 marathons and stormed onto the podium, also snagging the two available Kona slots on the female side. Lauren Brandon was able to post a new run PR, but that was only good for fourth, while Anja Ippach struggled towards the end and fell back into fifth place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money
1 Lucy Charles-Barclay GBR 00:25:20 05:05:46 02:59:32 08:35:31 03:20 US$ 30,000
2 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 00:32:59 05:10:07 02:52:40 08:40:47 -17:33 US$ 15,000
3 Annah Watkinson ZAF 00:30:44 05:12:17 02:55:02 08:43:18 -21:13 US$ 8,000
4 Lauren Brandon USA 00:25:28 05:05:41 03:17:54 08:53:35 -10:05 US$ 6,500
5 Anja Ippach GER 00:29:39 04:58:09 03:24:38 08:57:10 06:20 US$ 5,000
6 Tessa Kortekaas NED 00:34:08 05:18:54 03:11:52 09:10:01 n/a US$ 3,500
7 Antonina Reznikov ISR 00:39:35 05:22:09 03:11:23 09:19:25 -20:07 US$ 2,500
8 Federica De Nicola ITA 00:32:58 05:23:42 03:20:22 09:23:10 15:29 US$ 2,000
9 Ashley Paulson USA 00:40:09 05:31:39 03:06:48 09:24:11 05:35 US$ 1,500
10 Mareen Hufe GER 00:32:56 05:17:11 03:31:59 09:27:54 45:29 US$ 1,000
Angela Lindberg GER 00:36:59 06:14:54 DNF
Natalie Seymour GBR 00:32:07 DNF

Kona Qualifying

The following athletes were able to validate their Automatic Qualifier slots by finishing IM South Africa:

  • Lucy Charles-Barclay
  • Bart Aernouts
  • David McNamee

As Michael Weiss and Eneko Llanos were already qualified before the race, these athletes received a Kona slot (pending official results and acceptance at Monday’s award ceremony):

  • Gurutze Frades
  • Annah Watkinson
  • Ben Hoffman
  • Nils Frommhold
  • Maurice Clavel
  • Andreas Dreitz

Ironman South Africa 2019 (April 7th) – Seedings

IMSA_LogoUpdates:

  • April 6th: The following athletes have not signed in for the Pro Meeting and are unlikely to race on Sunday: Peru Alfaro and Philipp Lamberty. Johann Ackerman, Marcus Liebelt, Urs Müller and Angela Naeth haven’t even been on the sign-in sheets, so they probably have withdrawn earlier. I have crossed off these athletes in the tables below.
    This would make it 30 male and 12 female Pros racing, resulting in four male slots and 2 female slots. 
  • March 27th: Jan van Berkel announced that he has pinched a nerve and has to cancel his trip to South Africa. Speedy recovery!
  • March 28th: Evert Scheltinga also won’t be racing.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2006 Gerrit Schellens (BEL) 08:36:06 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:46:38
2007 Gerrit Schellens (BEL) 08:33:05 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:22:01
2008 Stephen Bayliss (GBR) 08:18:23 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:27:48
2009 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:17:32 Lucie Zelenkova (CZE) 09:16:32
2010 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:23:28 Sonja Tajsich (GER) 09:16:55
2011 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:05:36 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:33:56
2012 Clemente Alonso McKernan (ESP) 08:34:45 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:47:10
2013 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:11:24 Jessie Donavan (USA) 09:10:58
2014 Nils Frommhold (GER) 08:26:07 Simone Braendli (SUI) 09:31:54
2015 Frederik Van Lierde (BEL) 08:16:35 Jodie Cunnama (GBR) 09:26:56
2016 Ben Hoffman (USA) 08:12:37 Kaisa Sali (FIN) 09:06:50
2017 Ben Hoffman (USA) 07:58:40 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 08:47:02
2018 Kyle Buckingham (ZAF) 08:13:00 Lucy Charles-Barclay (GBR) 08:56:06

Last Race Results

Here’s the link to the analysis of last year’s results.

Male Top 3

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:48:22 04:31:51 02:48:42 08:13:00
2 Josh Amberger AUS 00:46:24 04:31:35 02:53:43 08:16:01
3 Maurice Clavel GER 00:48:21 04:31:56 02:54:01 08:18:51

Female Top 3

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Lucy Charles-Barclay GBR 00:47:32 04:57:21 03:05:45 08:56:06
2 Susie Cheetham GBR 00:55:48 05:01:54 03:00:47 09:02:58
3 Linsey Corbin USA 00:55:48 05:08:14 02:58:16 09:07:10

Course Records

There have been a couple of course changes over the years, especially on the bike. Nonetheless, the following are the fastest times in South Africa:

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:58:40 Ben Hoffman 2017-04-02
Swim overall 00:45:22 Anton Storm 2009-04-05
Bike overall 04:19:41 Raynard Tissink 2011-04-10
Run overall 02:42:52 Ben Hoffman 2017-04-02
Total female 08:33:56 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10
Swim female 00:47:32 Lucy Charles-Barclay 2018-04-15
Bike female 04:45:23 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10
Run female 02:52:54 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM South Africa is 03:26.

Race Adjustments for IM South Africa

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 01:34 -03:56 02:49 02:41 28 01:34 -03:56 02:49 02:41
2007 01:16 -08:10 06:34 02:52 33 01:25 -06:03 04:41 02:47
2008 15:32 01:07 10:31 03:54 36 06:07 -03:41 06:38 03:10
2009 17:18 02:43 13:35 01:01 28 08:55 -02:05 08:23 02:37
2010 09:38 -00:12 08:23 01:27 34 09:03 -01:42 08:23 02:23
2011 15:30 00:07 13:51 01:33 36 10:08 -01:24 09:17 02:15
2012 -11:58 -08:14 -06:39 02:54 28 06:58 -02:23 07:01 02:21
2013 06:23 -01:59 07:37 00:45 36 of 44 06:54 -02:20 07:05 02:09
2014 -12:12 -01:03 -08:23 -02:47 29 of 40 04:46 -02:11 05:22 01:36
2015 -13:44 -00:59 -11:06 -01:39 49 of 61 02:55 -02:04 03:44 01:16
2016 03:31 -03:11 06:40 00:03 42 of 53 02:59 -02:10 04:00 01:10
2017 08:21 -00:16 07:41 00:57 43 of 63 03:25 -02:01 04:18 01:09
2018 03:34 -00:07 01:35 02:06 35 of 47 03:26 -01:52 04:06 01:13

Kona slots and Prize Money

IM South Africa has 2m+2f +2u Pro Kona slot(s). Looking at the bib list, it is like that the female Pros will get two Kona slots, while the males will get four. (Final assignment is based on the number of Pros starting the race.) It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$, paying 10 deep.

Estimated Time Plan and Race Coverage

The following table shows the time plan for the race start and the estimated times for the first athlete in the transition zones or across the finish line. The estimates are based on the start time and my time estimates, these times can change based on how fast or slow the race ends up:

What Est. Racetime Est. Local Time
Male Pro Start 06:30
Female Pro Start 06:35
Age Group Start 06:45
First Male in T1 00:47:46 07:17
First Female in T1 00:49:08 07:24
First Male in T2 05:18:38 11:48
First Female in T2 05:47:29 12:22
Male Winner 08:06:50 14:36
Female Winner 08:53:29 15:28

Port Elizabeth is on South Africa Standard Time, 2 hours ahead of UTC. Here are the conversions to a few other time zones:

  • +8 hours: Melbourne (AEST, DST ends on April 7th), race starts 2:30pm
  • – 1 hour: United Kingdom (BST), race starts at 5:30am
  • no difference: Central Europe (CEST), race starts at 6:30am
  • – 6 hours: US East Coast (EDT), race starts at 12:30am
  • – 9 hours: US West Coast (PDT), race starts at 9:30pm on Saturday

The race will be available on Ironman NOW through Facebook Watch.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 74% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 8 Nils Frommhold GER 08:06:50 08:26:04 00:50:04 04:25:13 05:20:17 02:46:33 53% +0% -47% (11) (32)
2 2 Ben Hoffman USA 08:08:02 08:20:48 00:50:23 04:25:56 05:21:19 02:46:43 34% +37% -30% (21) 16
3 12 Patrik Nilsson SWE 08:08:29 08:15:07 00:49:12 04:28:40 05:22:52 02:45:37 47% +20% -33% (11) 6
4 5 Bart Aernouts (AQ) BEL 08:09:03 08:12:50 00:53:43 04:28:11 05:26:54 02:42:09 71% +24% -5% (14) 5
5 6 David McNamee (AQ) GBR 08:10:22 08:15:28 00:49:40 04:30:54 05:25:34 02:44:48 41% +39% -21% (9) 7
6 10 James Cunnama ZAF 08:15:26 08:23:38 00:50:32 04:27:03 05:22:34 02:52:52 53% +20% -27% (29) 27
7 15 Michael Weiss (KQ) AUT 08:16:00 08:23:45 00:55:40 04:22:02 05:22:43 02:53:17 90% +2% -8% (24) 28
8 14 Andreas Dreitz GER 08:16:41 08:21:34 00:51:22 04:22:16 05:18:38 02:58:03 70% +0% -30% (4) 20
9 11 Tim Van Berkel AUS 08:17:52 08:21:27 00:49:57 04:34:01 05:28:58 02:48:54 89% +6% -5% (26) 19
10 7 Tim Don GBR 08:19:19 08:28:54 00:49:48 04:24:50 05:19:37 02:59:42 19% +14% -67% (7) 43
11 1 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:19:22 08:27:33 00:50:28 04:31:10 05:26:37 02:52:45 80% +7% -13% (17) 36
12 4 Maurice Clavel GER 08:20:01 08:21:37 00:49:37 04:28:35 05:23:12 02:56:49 79% +0% -21% (4) 21
13 16 Jan van Berkel SUI 08:20:01 08:25:40 00:50:27 04:33:41 05:29:08 02:50:53 69% +20% -10% (20) 30
14 3 Josh Amberger AUS 08:21:31 08:35:16 00:47:46 04:28:28 05:21:14 03:00:17 60% +11% -29% (7) 62
15 19 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 08:23:58 08:31:22 00:51:33 04:38:36 05:35:09 02:48:49 69% +0% -31% (16) 53
16 13 Eneko Llanos (KQ) ESP 08:25:50 08:28:18 00:50:10 04:30:24 05:25:34 03:00:16 79% +0% -21% (36) 39
17 17 Giulio Molinari ITA 08:26:20 08:30:43 00:50:05 04:31:51 05:26:57 02:59:23 84% +0% -16% (8) 50
18 35 Evert Scheltinga NED 08:26:36 08:34:12 00:50:38 04:30:08 05:25:46 03:00:50 78% +0% -22% (8) 59
19 9 Matt Trautman (KQ) ZAF 08:27:07 08:30:00 00:52:20 04:33:50 05:31:10 02:55:57 30% +34% -36% (8) 47
20 18 Johann Ackermann GER 08:31:50 08:40:04 00:49:51 04:33:05 05:27:56 03:03:54 70% +0% -30% (13) 82
21 27 Samuel Huerzeler SUI 08:33:45 08:42:11 00:54:28 04:39:08 05:38:37 02:55:08 79% +21% -0% (14) 89
22 33 Gustavo Rodriguez Iglesias ESP 08:34:03 08:44:45 00:56:30 04:37:29 05:38:59 02:55:04 44% +34% -22% (6) 98
23 36 Markus Thomschke GER 08:34:26 08:37:31 00:53:40 04:36:01 05:34:41 02:59:45 55% +17% -29% (21) 76
24 21 Peru Alfaro San Ildefonso ESP 08:35:45 08:45:05 00:49:42 04:42:19 05:37:01 02:58:44 59% +0% -41% (5) 100
25 23 Reece Barclay GBR 08:40:12 08:56:43 00:49:49 04:42:53 05:37:42 03:02:30 56% +0% -44% (2) (141)
26 29 Markus Liebelt GER 08:41:35 08:55:18 00:54:34 04:35:50 05:35:24 03:06:11 40% +0% -60% (5) (137)
27 22 Victor Arroyo Bugallo ESP 08:44:01 08:52:32 00:59:07 04:46:39 05:50:46 02:53:15 64% +0% -36% (3) 124
28 25 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 08:51:18 09:05:28 00:53:16 04:38:20 05:36:36 03:14:42 41% +13% -46% (18) 168
29 31 Sebastian Norberg SWE 08:54:10 09:03:58 00:56:28 04:42:50 05:44:18 03:09:52 41% +21% -38% (5) 165
30 30 Urs Mueller SUI 09:00:55 09:10:52 00:54:36 04:47:54 05:47:30 03:13:25 66% +9% -25% (11) 182
31 24 Vinicius Canhedo BRA 09:07:07 09:22:38 00:54:15 04:57:50 05:57:05 03:10:02 16% +31% -53% (5) (216)
32 32 Jonas Oerarbaeck SWE 09:10:06 09:22:51 01:02:00 04:57:27 06:04:28 03:05:38 63% +0% -37% (3) (218)
33 20 Gerhard De Bruin ZAF 09:14:04 09:26:31 00:56:09 04:52:50 05:53:59 03:20:05 84% +16% -0% (7) 224
34 26 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:26:26 09:34:16 01:02:41 04:55:21 06:03:02 03:23:24 82% +4% -14% (22) 239
35 28 Philippe Lamberty LUX 10:12:58 10:34:01 00:55:36 04:54:34 05:55:09 04:17:49 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (269)
34 Paul Ruttmann AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (2) (n/a)
37 Clinton Gravett ZAF n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 20% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 40 Lucy Charles-Barclay (AQ) GBR 08:53:29 09:00:49 00:49:08 04:53:21 05:47:29 03:06:00 48% +52% -0% (6) 2
2 52 Angela Naeth CAN 09:14:45 09:25:27 01:01:16 04:53:37 05:59:53 03:14:52 3% +72% -25% (11) 33
3 43 Mareen Hufe (KQ) GER 09:16:12 09:19:01 01:00:22 04:55:46 06:01:09 03:15:03 79% +17% -4% (29) 20
4 44 Anja Ippach GER 09:20:21 09:29:34 00:53:53 04:58:20 05:57:13 03:23:08 52% +3% -45% (13) (38)
5 42 Lauren Brandon USA 09:27:21 09:38:17 00:49:48 05:04:24 05:59:12 03:28:09 39% +16% -46% (9) 49
6 41 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 09:28:57 09:34:42 01:02:42 05:11:47 06:19:29 03:09:28 84% +9% -7% (13) 43
7 45 Annah Watkinson ZAF 09:37:09 09:49:41 01:01:08 05:15:27 06:21:34 03:15:35 54% +0% -46% (8) 68
8 46 Federica De Nicola ITA 09:42:28 09:50:08 01:02:27 05:09:19 06:16:46 03:25:42 78% +0% -22% (4) 71
9 49 Ashley Paulson USA 09:58:05 10:08:27 01:15:11 05:28:13 06:48:23 03:09:42 66% +12% -23% (10) 94
10 48 Angela Lindberg GER 10:19:05 10:42:54 01:04:56 05:37:01 06:46:57 03:32:08 30% +0% -70% (7) (128)
11 50 Antonina Reznikov ISR 10:21:53 10:41:38 01:13:28 05:31:22 06:49:50 03:32:03 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (127)
47 Tessa Kortekaas NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
51 Natalie Seymour GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Bart Aernouts: 39% (2-1)
  • Nils Frommhold: 20% (4-1)
  • Ben Hoffman: 11% (8-1)
  • David McNamee: 10% (9-1)
  • James Cunnama: 6% (17-1)
  • Patrik Nilsson: 5% (21-1)
  • Tim Don: 3% (32-1)
  • Michael Weiss: 2% (48-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Lucy Charles-Barclay: 76% (1-1)
  • Mareen Hufe: 13% (7-1)
  • Angela Naeth: 5% (17-1)
  • Anja Ippach: 2% (44-1)
  • Gurutze Frades Larralde: 2% (61-1)

Ironman South Africa 2019 (April 7th) – Entry List

Update March 14th:

  • WPRO additions: Federica De Nicola, Mareen Hufe, Ashley Paulson, and Antonina Reznikov
  • MPRO additions: Peru Alfaro, Kyle Buckingham, James Cunnama, Karl-Johan Danielsson, Alessandro Degasperi, Tim Don, Andreas Dreitz, Eneko Elosegui, Ben Hoffman, Markus Liebelt, Eneko Llanos, David McNamee, Giulio Molinari, Sebastian Norberg, Jonas Oerarbaeck, Gustavo Rodriguez Iglesias, Evert Scheltinga, and Michael Weiss
  • The following athletes are no longer on the latest start list: Daniel Brown, and Imanol Sagarzazu – I have just added a question mark to their name in the list below.

Kona Slots and Prize Money

IM South Africa has 2m+2f +2u Pro Kona slots. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$, paying 10 deep.

There are 36 men and 13 women on the latest list, this would mean that both unassigned slots go to the men. (The final assignment will be based on the number of Pros starting the race. ) With quite a few males already qualified or just needing to validate their AQ slots, the rolldown could go quite far.

Male Race Participants

Name Nation
Johann Ackermann GER
Bart Aernouts (AQ) BEL
Peru Alfaro ESP
Josh Amberger AUS
Victor Arroyo Bugallo ESP
Reece Barclay GBR
Daniel Brown (?) AUS
Kyle Buckingham ZAF
Vinicius Canhedo BRA
Maurice Clavel GER
James Cunnama ZAF
Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE
Gerhard De Bruin ZAF
Alessandro Degasperi ITA
Tim Don GBR
Andreas Dreitz GER
Eneko Elosegui ESP
Nils Frommhold GER
Ben Hoffman USA
Samuel Huerzeler SUI
Philippe Lamberty LUX
Markus Liebelt GER
Eneko Llanos (KQ) ESP
David McNamee (AQ) GBR
Giulio Molinari ITA
Urs Mueller SUI
Patrik Nilsson SWE
Sebastian Norberg SWE
Jonas Oerarbaeck SWE
Gustavo Rodriguez Iglesias ESP
Paul Ruttmann AUT
Imanol Sagarzazu (?) ESP
Evert Scheltinga NED
Markus Thomschke GER
Matt Trautman (KQ) ZAF
Jan van Berkel SUI
Tim Van Berkel AUS
Michael Weiss (KQ) AUT

Female Race Participants

Name Nation
Lauren Brandon USA
Lucy Charles-Barclay (AQ) GBR
Federica De Nicola ITA
Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP
Mareen Hufe (KQ) GER
Anja Ippach GER
Tessa Kortekaas NED
Angela Lindberg GER
Angela Naeth CAN
Ashley Paulson USA
Antonina Reznikov ISR
Natalie Seymour GBR
Annah Watkinson ZAF

Ironman South Africa 2018 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

The weather in Port Elizabeth was great, but the lack of wind did not create fast times. Overall, the adjustments were typical for IM South Africa: a slow Ocean swim, followed by “normal” bike and run conditions. 

Lucy Charles posted a new female swim course record (beating Lucy Zelenkova’s 2009 swim by 8 seconds). Camron Wurf was very close to setting a new bike course record, he missed Ray Tissink’s 2011 time by just 3 seconds!

Male Race Results

The swim and bike unfolded as expected: Josh Amberger was taking the lead in the swim, he was two minutes ahead of the rest of the field. But Cam Wurf wasn’t too far back and by 90k he had taken the lead, starting the run with a seven minute lead on Josh and about ten minutes to a larger group of stronger runners. That group included defending champion Ben Hoffman but he quickly had back issues and was forced to walk almost the complete marathon (still finishing in just over 12 hours, but adding an IM finish to his KPR points to be eligible for a Kona slot). 

Cameron Wurf has improved his run and he was holding on to his lead for almost three of the four run legs. By then South African Kyle Buckingham had methodically worked his way to the front, first running away from the others in his bike chase group, then overtaking Josh Amberger and eventually taking the lead. In the end, his solid 2:48 marathon was good enough for a three minute win over Josh Amberger who also ran well. Third place went to the young German Maurice Clavel who executed a smart race in the big bike group followed by a 2:54 marathon, edging out Cam Wurf for the podium.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:48:22 04:31:51 02:48:42 08:13:00 -15:39 US$ 30,000 4000
2 Josh Amberger AUS 00:46:24 04:31:35 02:53:43 08:16:01 -16:10 US$ 15,000 3400
3 Maurice Clavel GER 00:48:21 04:31:56 02:54:01 08:18:51 04:09 US$ 8,000 2890
4 Cameron Wurf AUS 00:50:15 04:19:44 03:05:10 08:20:07 -08:34 US$ 6,500 2455
5 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:53:53 04:35:37 02:49:03 08:23:09 -01:33 US$ 5,000 2090
6 Jonathan Shearon USA 00:53:56 04:35:48 02:49:15 08:23:57 -16:50 US$ 3,500 1670
7 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 00:48:30 04:42:43 02:48:33 08:25:10 01:03 US$ 2,500 1335
8 Giulio Molinari ITA 00:48:19 04:37:53 02:54:57 08:25:29 -02:48 US$ 2,000 1070
9 Philipp Koutny SUI 00:50:44 04:40:33 02:50:35 08:26:18 -16:16 US$ 1,500 855
10 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:48:28 04:31:48 03:07:07 08:31:56 06:21 US$ 1,000 685
11 Peru Alfaro ESP 00:48:12 04:44:57 02:58:07 08:36:18 09:24   515
12 Michael Ruenz GER 00:57:42 04:47:55 02:48:17 08:38:21 -04:53   385
13 Matt Trautman ZAF 00:49:53 04:42:56 03:09:25 08:47:14 25:33   290
14 Sebastian Norberg SWE 00:53:52 04:46:57 03:15:27 09:00:39 n/a   215
15 Alberto Casadei ITA 00:48:20 05:03:44 03:07:54 09:05:18 29:30   160
16 Darby Thomas FIN 01:00:55 04:47:19 03:14:22 09:07:29 15:23   120
17 Gerhard De Bruin ZAF 00:53:44 04:51:41 03:22:03 09:11:47 -08:48   90
18 Bekim Christensen DEN 01:05:56 04:46:32 03:28:53 09:27:13 08:48   70
19 Hans Muehlbauer GER 00:55:31 05:22:21 03:11:41 09:34:55 15:18   50
20 Philippe Lamberty LUX 00:53:49 04:56:48 04:16:20 10:11:19 n/a   40
21 Ben Hoffman USA 00:49:17 04:30:57 06:42:00 12:06:48 3:53:55   25
  Evert Scheltinga NED 00:48:14 04:41:29   DNF      
  Pedro Gomes POR 00:49:15 04:46:04   DNF      
  Reece Barclay GBR 00:48:21 04:50:00   DNF      
  Alain Djouad-Guibert MOR 01:05:48 05:26:27   DNF      
  Markus Fachbach GER 00:49:13     DNF      
  Artem Parienko RUS 00:51:29     DNF      

Female Race Results

The female race was “The Lucy Show”: Lucy Charles posted the fastest swim and started the bike with a five minute lead. She was also riding well (the only female sub-5 bike split), by T2 she was eleven minutes ahead of Rachel McBride, twelve ahead of Susie Cheetham and 19 ahead of Linsey Corbin. All four leaders were running well, and even though Rachel fell back to fourth place, her 3:16 run was a new marathon PR for her. Linsey finished third with the best marathon in the field, her best marathon since 2014 season when she finished the fastest North American Ironman. Susie Cheetham set a new marathon PR, just missing the 3-hour mark but finishing a very solid second an continuing her streak of four podium finishes in Port Elizabeth in a row. But the undisputed winner by six minutes was Lucy, who also set a new marathon PR while winning her first Regional Championship and securing an Automatic Qualifier slot for Kona. 

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Lucy Charles GBR 00:47:32 04:57:21 03:05:45 08:56:06 -11:39 US$ 30,000 4000
2 Susie Cheetham GBR 00:55:48 05:01:54 03:00:47 09:02:58 -07:31 US$ 15,000 3400
3 Linsey Corbin USA 00:55:48 05:08:14 02:58:16 09:07:10 -09:12 US$ 8,000 2890
4 Rachel McBride CAN 00:52:47 05:04:06 03:16:55 09:18:34 -13:50 US$ 6,500 2455
5 Manon Genet FRA 00:59:43 05:06:05 03:11:21 09:21:59 -22:45 US$ 5,000 2090
6 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 00:59:18 05:11:02 03:14:38 09:30:14 -06:34 US$ 3,500 1670
7 Katharina Grohmann GER 01:10:06 05:13:17 03:06:53 09:35:07 -14:35 US$ 2,500 1335
8 Martina Kunz SUI 01:02:04 05:16:01 03:13:27 09:36:40 -03:26 US$ 2,000 1070
9 Maja Stage Nielsen DEN 00:58:06 05:17:11 03:16:59 09:37:21 18:57 US$ 1,500 855
10 Annah Watkinson ZAF 00:59:17 05:20:44 03:12:15 09:38:30 05:54 US$ 1,000 685
11 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 00:59:54 05:27:53 03:12:17 09:45:19 00:39   515
12 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 00:55:42 05:29:38 03:17:26 09:47:58 02:50   385
13 Corina Hengartner SUI 01:04:25 05:38:38 03:09:36 09:58:59 06:31   290
14 Patricia Bueno Perez ESP 01:06:41 05:55:17 04:03:38 11:12:58 26:03   215
  Charlotte Morel FRA 00:52:58 05:14:11   DNF      
  Emma Pallant GBR 00:55:47 05:13:39   DNF      
  Judith Corachan Vacquero ESP 00:55:46 05:15:35   DNF      
  Katja Konschak GER 00:55:50 05:24:41   DNF      
  Lina-Kristin Schink GER 01:07:29 05:21:00   DNF      
  Carolin Lehrieder GER 00:55:48     DNF      

Kona Qualifying Implications

This early in the season, a lot of athletes are looking to position themselves for an early Kona slot or at least a good path towards a slot. Here’s where the top finishers are currently placed.

Men

  • Automatic Qualifier: Kyle Buckingham
  • Safe for a July slot: Cameron Wurf, Maurice Clavel, Josh Amberger, Ben Hoffman
  • On the Bubble: Jonathan Shearon (at 3.290 he will probably need more points)
  • Close, but will need more points: Ronnie Schildknecht

Women

  • Automatic Qualifier: Lucy Charles
  • Safe for a July slot: Susie Cheetham, Linsey Corbin
  • All others will still need a good number of points to get to the projected cutoff of 4.400 points, the best placed are Manon Genet (3.370 points), Maja Stage Nielsen (3.335) and Rachel McBride (3.295). 

Ironman South Africa 2018 (Apr 15th) – Seedings

Analysis of IM South Africa is supported by Neil Cooper. Neil lives in Northern Island but is going to race IM South Africa. While he’s in the country he will also attend his son’s wedding a few days after the race. All the best to Neil and to his son (and his son’s bride!) for the upcoming wedding.

Update March 31st: Michelle Vesterby won’t be racing South Africa, she plans to do IM Texas.

Update April 9th: Nikki Bartlett won’t be able to race, she crashed riding her bike shortly before leaving for South Africa. Quick recovery!

Update April 10th: James Cunnama tweeted that he’ll need more time to build his fitness and won’t be racing this Sunday.

IMSA_LogoPrevious Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2006 Gerrit Schellens (BEL) 08:36:06 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:46:38
2007 Gerrit Schellens (BEL) 08:33:05 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:22:01
2008 Stephen Bayliss (GBR) 08:18:23 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:27:48
2009 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:17:32 Lucie Zelenkova (CZE) 09:16:32
2010 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:23:28 Sonja Tajsich (GER) 09:16:55
2011 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:05:36 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:33:56
2012 Clemente Alonso McKernan (ESP) 08:34:45 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:47:10
2013 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:11:24 Jessie Donavan (USA) 09:10:58
2014 Nils Frommhold (GER) 08:26:07 Simone Braendli (SUI) 09:31:54
2015 Frederik Van Lierde (BEL) 08:16:35 Jodie Cunnama (GBR) 09:26:56
2016 Ben Hoffman (USA) 08:12:37 Kaisa Sali (FIN) 09:06:50
2017 Ben Hoffman (USA) 07:58:40 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 08:47:02

Last Year’s TOP 3

Here’s the link to last year’s full results and analysis.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Ben Hoffman USA 00:49:14 04:22:33 02:42:52 07:58:40
2 Nils Frommhold GER 00:49:05 04:22:31 02:43:43 07:59:30
3 David McNamee GBR 00:49:09 04:28:45 02:45:36 08:07:31

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:53:48 04:50:50 02:57:27 08:47:02
2 Kaisa Sali FIN 00:55:29 04:53:03 02:59:10 08:52:26
3 Susie Cheetham GBR 00:53:56 04:57:43 03:08:36 09:04:49

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:58:40 Ben Hoffman 2017-04-02
Swim overall 00:45:22 Anton Storm 2009-04-05
Bike overall 04:19:41 Raynard Tissink 2011-04-10
Run overall 02:42:52 Ben Hoffman 2017-04-02
Total female 08:33:56 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10
Swim female 00:47:40 Lucie Zelenkova 2009-04-05
Bike female 04:45:23 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10
Run female 02:52:54 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM South Africa is 03:26.

Race Adjustments for IM South Africa

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 01:35 -04:53 -01:53 -00:21 28 01:35 -04:53 -01:53 -00:21
2007 01:16 -08:52 03:31 00:49 33 01:26 -06:52 00:49 00:14
2008 15:32 01:13 11:14 04:15 36 06:08 -04:11 04:18 01:34
2009 17:18 02:09 10:45 -01:03 28 08:55 -02:36 05:54 00:55
2010 09:39 -00:15 08:15 01:15 34 09:04 -02:08 06:23 00:59
2011 15:31 00:13 14:40 01:56 36 10:08 -01:44 07:45 01:08
2012 -11:59 -08:35 -08:23 01:54 28 06:59 -02:43 05:27 01:15
2013 06:23 -01:17 11:20 03:07 36 of 44 06:54 -02:32 06:11 01:29
2014 -12:13 -01:05 -08:46 -02:56 29 of 40 04:47 -02:22 04:32 00:59
2015 -13:45 -00:47 -10:09 -00:57 49 of 61 02:56 -02:13 03:04 00:48
2016 03:32 -02:43 09:06 01:34 42 of 53 02:59 -02:16 03:37 00:52
2017 08:21 -00:05 08:49 01:36 43 of 63 03:26 -02:05 04:03 00:56

KPR points and Prize Money

IM South Africa is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$ and automatic Kona qualifier slots for the winners.

Estimated Time Plan

The following table shows the time plan for the race start and the estimated times for the first athlete to end each leg or finish the race. The estimates are based on the start time and my time estimates, these times can change based on how fast or slow the race ends up:

What Racetime Local Time
Male Pro Start 06:30
Female Pro Start 06:35
Age Group Start 06:45
First Male Out of Water 00:48 07:18
First Female Out of Water 00:49 07:24
First Male End of Bike 05:17 11:47
First Female End of Bike 05:52 12:27
Male Winner 08:08 14:38
Female Winner 09:02 15:37

Port Elizabeth is on South Africa Standard Time, 2 hours ahead of UTC. Here are the conversions to a few other time zones:

  • +8 hours: Melbourne (AEST), race starts at 2:30 pm
  • -1 hour: United Kingdom (BST), race starts at 5:30
  • no change: Central Europe (CEST), race starts at 6:30
  • – 6 hours: US East Coast (EDT), race starts at 12:30am
  • – 9 hours: US West Coast (PDT), race starts at 9:30pm on Saturday

There is going to be live TV coverage for the race in South Africa, so we can expect a live stream on Ironman.com as well.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 25% of a typical Kona field.

#
Bib
Name
Nat
Expected
Rating
ESwim
EBike
ET2
ERun
Consistency
Overall
1 1 Ben Hoffman USA 08:07:57 08:17:42 00:50:31 04:25:44 05:21:15 02:46:42 43% +47% -9% (20) 9
2 4 James Cunnama ZAF 08:15:13 08:20:37 00:50:30 04:26:22 05:21:52 02:53:21 45% +35% -19% (26) 14
3 17 Maurice Clavel GER 08:17:19 08:38:13 00:50:21 04:25:08 05:20:29 02:56:50 47% +0% -53% (2) (70)
4 5 Matt Trautman ZAF 08:21:30 08:25:10 00:52:39 04:33:53 05:31:31 02:49:59 80% +0% -20% (6) (22)
5 8 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:22:45 08:28:02 00:54:05 04:31:45 05:30:51 02:51:54 61% +0% -38% (34) 32
6 2 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:22:49 08:31:55 00:51:03 04:33:43 05:29:47 02:53:02 65% +12% -22% (14) 47
7 18 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 08:25:40 08:27:28 00:53:21 04:38:56 05:37:17 02:48:23 73% +0% -27% (13) 30
8 7 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:26:18 08:28:58 00:50:31 04:29:49 05:25:20 03:00:58 85% +0% -15% (33) 34
9 6 Cameron Wurf AUS 08:27:18 08:32:00 00:51:54 04:20:31 05:17:25 03:09:53 45% +43% -12% (9) 49
10 27 Giulio Molinari ITA 08:28:19 08:31:38 00:50:30 04:31:09 05:26:39 03:01:40 100% +0% -0% (3) 45
11 12 Peru Alfaro ESP 08:28:55 08:45:47 00:49:08 04:38:37 05:32:45 02:56:10 82% +0% -18% (3) (90)
12 32 Evert Scheltinga NED 08:29:43 08:34:05 00:51:01 04:30:56 05:26:57 03:02:46 77% +0% -23% (4) 55
13 3 Josh Amberger AUS 08:32:44 08:35:28 00:48:22 04:28:32 05:21:54 03:10:50 57% +27% -15% (4) 61
14 11 Markus Fachbach GER 08:33:21 08:41:20 00:51:48 04:36:25 05:33:14 03:00:07 60% +1% -40% (22) 80
15 9 Michael Raelert GER 08:33:41 08:54:08 00:49:50 04:40:32 05:35:21 02:58:20 31% +0% -69% (4) (120)
16 15 Alberto Casadei ITA 08:35:41 08:49:52 00:49:49 04:45:52 05:40:41 02:55:00 34% +27% -39% (10) 104
17 20 Pedro Gomes POR 08:37:50 08:43:05 00:53:49 04:44:12 05:43:01 02:54:49 57% +1% -43% (30) 83
18 33 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:40:53 08:49:21 00:55:58 04:38:17 05:39:15 03:01:38 66% +6% -28% (20) 102
19 24 Philipp Koutny SUI 08:42:26 08:56:30 00:52:51 04:36:30 05:34:22 03:08:04 46% +0% -54% (7) 131
20 31 Michael Ruenz GER 08:43:26 08:51:56 00:57:17 04:45:22 05:47:39 02:55:47 68% +0% -32% (12) 113
21 34 Darby Thomas FIN 08:48:38 09:01:05 01:01:14 04:41:43 05:47:57 03:00:41 53% +0% -47% (12) 153
22 28 Hans Muehlbauer GER 09:09:16 09:23:25 00:54:07 05:05:33 06:04:40 03:04:36 45% +0% -55% (10) (220)
23 10 Gerhard De Bruin ZAF 09:16:31 09:29:52 00:57:10 04:57:10 05:59:20 03:17:11 76% +24% -0% (6) (234)
24 21 Christian Jais GER 09:17:05 09:40:35 00:58:45 04:48:30 05:52:15 03:24:50 18% +31% -51% (3) (258)
25 16 Bekim Christensen DEN 09:19:59 09:56:46 01:06:58 04:54:09 06:06:07 03:13:52 11% +0% -89% (3) (273)
26 19 Alain Djouad-Guibert MOR 10:29:54 11:05:02 01:16:02 05:12:41 06:33:42 03:56:12 12% +21% -67% (5) (295)
27 23 Aleksander Kochetkov LTU 10:51:18 11:11:58 01:11:38 05:38:42 06:55:20 03:55:58 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (296)
14 Reece Barclay GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
22 Bruno Joaquim BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
25 Philippe Lamberty LUX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
29 Sebastian Norberg SWE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
30 Artem Parienko RUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 30% of a typical Kona field.

#
Bib
Name
Nat
Expected
Rating
ESwim
EBike
ET2
ERun
Consistency
Overall
1 42 Lucy Charles GBR 09:01:43 09:11:18 00:49:24 04:57:59 05:52:23 03:09:20 21% +79% -0% (3) 4
2 41 Susie Cheetham GBR 09:09:57 09:14:05 00:56:40 05:03:28 06:05:09 03:04:48 87% +0% -13% (8) 5
3 49 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:15:58 09:19:44 00:54:21 05:01:25 06:00:46 03:15:12 78% +1% -20% (24) 8
4 44 Linsey Corbin USA 09:17:40 09:19:59 01:00:21 05:05:40 06:11:01 03:06:39 95% +5% -0% (24) 9
5 63 Maja Stage Nielsen DEN 09:19:55 09:22:13 01:01:00 05:05:09 06:11:09 03:08:46 100% +0% -0% (3) 17
6 46 Katja Konschak GER 09:29:18 09:43:02 00:55:44 05:16:45 06:17:29 03:11:49 42% +38% -20% (20) 49
7 45 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 09:32:33 09:40:34 01:03:11 05:14:29 06:22:40 03:09:53 70% +18% -12% (10) 46
8 59 Rachel McBride CAN 09:33:53 09:41:52 00:55:02 04:59:25 05:59:28 03:34:25 100% +0% -0% (3) 48
9 51 Annah Watkinson ZAF 09:34:21 09:48:01 01:01:00 05:10:37 06:16:36 03:17:45 58% +0% -42% (6) 57
10 47 Nikki Bartlett GBR 09:36:25 09:54:15 01:01:42 05:08:09 06:14:51 03:21:34 69% +0% -31% (4) 69
11 53 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 09:42:08 09:49:02 00:57:36 05:23:14 06:25:50 03:16:18 74% +19% -8% (15) 61
12 58 Carolin Lehrieder GER 09:42:28 10:20:29 00:57:34 05:16:41 06:19:15 03:23:13 20% +7% -73% (11) (115)
13 48 Katharina Grohmann GER 09:42:35 09:53:30 01:13:07 05:10:58 06:29:05 03:13:30 77% +23% -0% (17) 67
14 57 Martina Kunz SUI 09:43:07 09:55:40 01:04:41 05:10:42 06:20:23 03:22:44 100% +0% -0% (2) (71)
15 60 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 09:45:11 09:54:25 01:00:09 05:23:14 06:28:23 03:16:48 72% +16% -12% (8) 70
16 55 Manon Genet FRA 09:48:57 10:00:17 01:00:20 05:08:17 06:13:37 03:35:20 27% +37% -35% (3) (76)
17 56 Corina Hengartner SUI 09:49:20 10:06:37 01:04:04 05:12:30 06:21:34 03:27:46 34% +32% -34% (7) 90
18 62 Lina-Kristin Schink GER 09:57:48 10:15:09 01:12:49 05:22:52 06:40:42 03:17:06 57% +18% -24% (10) 109
19 54 Camille Donat FRA 10:13:45 10:33:13 00:53:28 05:30:11 06:28:40 03:45:05 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (132)
20 61 Charlotte Morel FRA 10:31:25 10:51:28 00:56:38 05:16:24 06:18:01 04:13:24 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (144)
21 52 Patricia Bueno Perez ESP 10:43:15 11:04:27 01:05:57 05:44:27 06:55:25 03:47:50 46% +54% -0% (2) (148)
43 Emma Pallant GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
50 Judith Corachan Vacquero ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Ben Hoffman, the winner of the last two years, is back to defend his title and is the favorite to extend his winning streak in Port Elizabeth. James Cunnama has been chasing a good result in his home IM for a long time, he hopes to win this race since his third place in 2011. Last year he was a disappointing tenth, but since then he’s been superb on the IM distance, including a win at IM Hamburg and a fifth in Kona. Two Australians are expected to play a big role in the race: Josh Amberger will likely lead the race in T1, and Cam Wurf should be the fastest bike rider in the field and should take the lead before T2, maybe even posting a new bike course record (provided the conditions are favorable). But as always in a Regional Championship field, there are lots of candidates for the win and almost the whole field looks to score solid points for a potential Kona qualification.

  • Ben Hoffman: 56% (1-1)
  • James Cunnama: 22% (3-1)
  • Josh Amberger: 6% (17-1)
  • Ronnie Schildknecht: 5% (19-1)
  • Kyle Buckingham: 3% (35-1)
  • Alessandro Degasperi: 2% (55-1)
  • Matt Trautman: 2% (57-1)
  • Cameron Wurf: 2% (65-1)

Female Race Participants

For various reasons, none of the previous champions are on the start list this year, so we are going to have a new winner. The odds are favoring one of the British to come home with the title: Lucy Charles made great improvements in 2017 and looks like a very likely T1 and T2 leader, but Susie Cheetham has also had a very solid 2017 season and has been on the podium in Port Elizabeth in all three of her IM South Africa starts. With Emma Pallant there is another interesting British athlete in the field: The second place finisher at 70.3 Worlds will be racing her first Ironman. Michelle Vesterby (20 IM finishes) and Linsey Corbin (23 IM finishes) are two experienced athletes that also have good winning chances, but there are a lot more athletes on the start list that will look for a good start of the season after their winter training block.

  • Lucy Charles: 44% (1-1)
  • Susie Cheetham: 31% (2-1)
  • Michelle Vesterby: 17% (5-1)
  • Linsey Corbin: 5% (17-1)

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