IM South Africa

Ironman South Africa 2018 – Analyzing Results

April 16, 2018

Race Conditions

The weather in Port Elizabeth was great, but the lack of wind did not create fast times. Overall, the adjustments were typical for IM South Africa: a slow Ocean swim, followed by “normal” bike and run conditions.

Lucy Charles posted a new female swim course record (beating Lucy Zelenkova’s 2009 swim by 8 seconds). Camron Wurf was very close to setting a new bike course record, he missed Ray Tissink’s 2011 time by just 3 seconds!

Male Race Results

The swim and bike unfolded as expected: Josh Amberger was taking the lead in the swim, he was two minutes ahead of the rest of the field. But Cam Wurf wasn’t too far back and by 90k he had taken the lead, starting the run with a seven minute lead on Josh and about ten minutes to a larger group of stronger runners. That group included defending champion Ben Hoffman but he quickly had back issues and was forced to walk almost the complete marathon (still finishing in just over 12 hours, but adding an IM finish to his KPR points to be eligible for a Kona slot).

Cameron Wurf has improved his run and he was holding on to his lead for almost three of the four run legs. By then South African Kyle Buckingham had methodically worked his way to the front, first running away from the others in his bike chase group, then overtaking Josh Amberger and eventually taking the lead. In the end, his solid 2:48 marathon was good enough for a three minute win over Josh Amberger who also ran well. Third place went to the young German Maurice Clavel who executed a smart race in the big bike group followed by a 2:54 marathon, edging out Cam Wurf for the podium.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to exp.	Prize Money	KPR Points
1	Kyle Buckingham	ZAF	00:48:22	04:31:51	02:48:42	08:13:00	-15:39	US$ 30,000	4000
2	Josh Amberger	AUS	00:46:24	04:31:35	02:53:43	08:16:01	-16:10	US$ 15,000	3400
3	Maurice Clavel	GER	00:48:21	04:31:56	02:54:01	08:18:51	04:09	US$ 8,000	2890
4	Cameron Wurf	AUS	00:50:15	04:19:44	03:05:10	08:20:07	-08:34	US$ 6,500	2455
5	Ronnie Schildknecht	SUI	00:53:53	04:35:37	02:49:03	08:23:09	-01:33	US$ 5,000	2090
6	Jonathan Shearon	USA	00:53:56	04:35:48	02:49:15	08:23:57	-16:50	US$ 3,500	1670
7	Alessandro Degasperi	ITA	00:48:30	04:42:43	02:48:33	08:25:10	01:03	US$ 2,500	1335
8	Giulio Molinari	ITA	00:48:19	04:37:53	02:54:57	08:25:29	-02:48	US$ 2,000	1070
9	Philipp Koutny	SUI	00:50:44	04:40:33	02:50:35	08:26:18	-16:16	US$ 1,500	855
10	Eneko Llanos	ESP	00:48:28	04:31:48	03:07:07	08:31:56	06:21	US$ 1,000	685
11	Peru Alfaro	ESP	00:48:12	04:44:57	02:58:07	08:36:18	09:24		515
12	Michael Ruenz	GER	00:57:42	04:47:55	02:48:17	08:38:21	-04:53		385
13	Matt Trautman	ZAF	00:49:53	04:42:56	03:09:25	08:47:14	25:33		290
14	Sebastian Norberg	SWE	00:53:52	04:46:57	03:15:27	09:00:39	n/a		215
15	Alberto Casadei	ITA	00:48:20	05:03:44	03:07:54	09:05:18	29:30		160
16	Darby Thomas	FIN	01:00:55	04:47:19	03:14:22	09:07:29	15:23		120
17	Gerhard De Bruin	ZAF	00:53:44	04:51:41	03:22:03	09:11:47	-08:48		90
18	Bekim Christensen	DEN	01:05:56	04:46:32	03:28:53	09:27:13	08:48		70
19	Hans Muehlbauer	GER	00:55:31	05:22:21	03:11:41	09:34:55	15:18		50
20	Philippe Lamberty	LUX	00:53:49	04:56:48	04:16:20	10:11:19	n/a		40
21	Ben Hoffman	USA	00:49:17	04:30:57	06:42:00	12:06:48	3:53:55		25
	Evert Scheltinga	NED	00:48:14	04:41:29		DNF
	Pedro Gomes	POR	00:49:15	04:46:04		DNF
	Reece Barclay	GBR	00:48:21	04:50:00		DNF
	Alain Djouad-Guibert	MOR	01:05:48	05:26:27		DNF
	Markus Fachbach	GER	00:49:13			DNF
	Artem Parienko	RUS	00:51:29			DNF

Female Race Results

The female race was “The Lucy Show”: Lucy Charles posted the fastest swim and started the bike with a five minute lead. She was also riding well (the only female sub-5 bike split), by T2 she was eleven minutes ahead of Rachel McBride, twelve ahead of Susie Cheetham and 19 ahead of Linsey Corbin. All four leaders were running well, and even though Rachel fell back to fourth place, her 3:16 run was a new marathon PR for her. Linsey finished third with the best marathon in the field, her best marathon since 2014 season when she finished the fastest North American Ironman. Susie Cheetham set a new marathon PR, just missing the 3-hour mark but finishing a very solid second an continuing her streak of four podium finishes in Port Elizabeth in a row. But the undisputed winner by six minutes was Lucy, who also set a new marathon PR while winning her first Regional Championship and securing an Automatic Qualifier slot for Kona.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to exp.	Prize Money	KPR Points
1	Lucy Charles	GBR	00:47:32	04:57:21	03:05:45	08:56:06	-11:39	US$ 30,000	4000
2	Susie Cheetham	GBR	00:55:48	05:01:54	03:00:47	09:02:58	-07:31	US$ 15,000	3400
3	Linsey Corbin	USA	00:55:48	05:08:14	02:58:16	09:07:10	-09:12	US$ 8,000	2890
4	Rachel McBride	CAN	00:52:47	05:04:06	03:16:55	09:18:34	-13:50	US$ 6,500	2455
5	Manon Genet	FRA	00:59:43	05:06:05	03:11:21	09:21:59	-22:45	US$ 5,000	2090
6	Gurutze Frades Larralde	ESP	00:59:18	05:11:02	03:14:38	09:30:14	-06:34	US$ 3,500	1670
7	Katharina Grohmann	GER	01:10:06	05:13:17	03:06:53	09:35:07	-14:35	US$ 2,500	1335
8	Martina Kunz	SUI	01:02:04	05:16:01	03:13:27	09:36:40	-03:26	US$ 2,000	1070
9	Maja Stage Nielsen	DEN	00:58:06	05:17:11	03:16:59	09:37:21	18:57	US$ 1,500	855
10	Annah Watkinson	ZAF	00:59:17	05:20:44	03:12:15	09:38:30	05:54	US$ 1,000	685
11	Leslie DiMichele Miller	USA	00:59:54	05:27:53	03:12:17	09:45:19	00:39		515
12	Saleta Castro Nogueira	ESP	00:55:42	05:29:38	03:17:26	09:47:58	02:50		385
13	Corina Hengartner	SUI	01:04:25	05:38:38	03:09:36	09:58:59	06:31		290
14	Patricia Bueno Perez	ESP	01:06:41	05:55:17	04:03:38	11:12:58	26:03		215
	Charlotte Morel	FRA	00:52:58	05:14:11		DNF
	Emma Pallant	GBR	00:55:47	05:13:39		DNF
	Judith Corachan Vacquero	ESP	00:55:46	05:15:35		DNF
	Katja Konschak	GER	00:55:50	05:24:41		DNF
	Lina-Kristin Schink	GER	01:07:29	05:21:00		DNF
	Carolin Lehrieder	GER	00:55:48			DNF

Kona Qualifying Implications

This early in the season, a lot of athletes are looking to position themselves for an early Kona slot or at least a good path towards a slot. Here’s where the top finishers are currently placed.

Men

Automatic Qualifier: Kyle Buckingham
Safe for a July slot: Cameron Wurf, Maurice Clavel, Josh Amberger, Ben Hoffman
On the Bubble: Jonathan Shearon (at 3.290 he will probably need more points)
Close, but will need more points: Ronnie Schildknecht

Women

Automatic Qualifier: Lucy Charles
Safe for a July slot: Susie Cheetham, Linsey Corbin
All others will still need a good number of points to get to the projected cutoff of 4.400 points, the best placed are Manon Genet (3.370 points), Maja Stage Nielsen (3.335) and Rachel McBride (3.295).

Ironman South Africa 2018 (Apr 15th) – Seedings

April 12, 2018

Analysis of IM South Africa is supported by Neil Cooper. Neil lives in Northern Island but is going to race IM South Africa. While he’s in the country he will also attend his son’s wedding a few days after the race. All the best to Neil and to his son (and his son’s bride!) for the upcoming wedding.

Update March 31st: Michelle Vesterby won’t be racing South Africa, she plans to do IM Texas.

Update April 9th: Nikki Bartlett won’t be able to race, she crashed riding her bike shortly before leaving for South Africa. Quick recovery!

Update April 10th: James Cunnama tweeted that he’ll need more time to build his fitness and won’t be racing this Sunday.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2006	Gerrit Schellens (BEL)	08:36:06	Natascha Badmann (SUI)	09:46:38
2007	Gerrit Schellens (BEL)	08:33:05	Natascha Badmann (SUI)	09:22:01
2008	Stephen Bayliss (GBR)	08:18:23	Bella Bayliss (GBR)	09:27:48
2009	Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL)	08:17:32	Lucie Zelenkova (CZE)	09:16:32
2010	Raynard Tissink (ZAF)	08:23:28	Sonja Tajsich (GER)	09:16:55
2011	Raynard Tissink (ZAF)	08:05:36	Chrissie Wellington (GBR)	08:33:56
2012	Clemente Alonso McKernan (ESP)	08:34:45	Natascha Badmann (SUI)	09:47:10
2013	Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI)	08:11:24	Jessie Donavan (USA)	09:10:58
2014	Nils Frommhold (GER)	08:26:07	Simone Braendli (SUI)	09:31:54
2015	Frederik Van Lierde (BEL)	08:16:35	Jodie Cunnama (GBR)	09:26:56
2016	Ben Hoffman (USA)	08:12:37	Kaisa Sali (FIN)	09:06:50
2017	Ben Hoffman (USA)	07:58:40	Daniela Ryf (SUI)	08:47:02

Last Year’s TOP 3

Here’s the link to last year’s full results and analysis.

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Ben Hoffman	USA	00:49:14	04:22:33	02:42:52	07:58:40
2	Nils Frommhold	GER	00:49:05	04:22:31	02:43:43	07:59:30
3	David McNamee	GBR	00:49:09	04:28:45	02:45:36	08:07:31

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Daniela Ryf	SUI	00:53:48	04:50:50	02:57:27	08:47:02
2	Kaisa Sali	FIN	00:55:29	04:53:03	02:59:10	08:52:26
3	Susie Cheetham	GBR	00:53:56	04:57:43	03:08:36	09:04:49

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	07:58:40	Ben Hoffman	2017-04-02
Swim	overall	00:45:22	Anton Storm	2009-04-05
Bike	overall	04:19:41	Raynard Tissink	2011-04-10
Run	overall	02:42:52	Ben Hoffman	2017-04-02
Total	female	08:33:56	Chrissie Wellington	2011-04-10
Swim	female	00:47:40	Lucie Zelenkova	2009-04-05
Bike	female	04:45:23	Chrissie Wellington	2011-04-10
Run	female	02:52:54	Chrissie Wellington	2011-04-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM South Africa is 03:26.

Race Adjustments for IM South Africa

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2006	01:35	-04:53	-01:53	-00:21	28	01:35	-04:53	-01:53	-00:21
2007	01:16	-08:52	03:31	00:49	33	01:26	-06:52	00:49	00:14
2008	15:32	01:13	11:14	04:15	36	06:08	-04:11	04:18	01:34
2009	17:18	02:09	10:45	-01:03	28	08:55	-02:36	05:54	00:55
2010	09:39	-00:15	08:15	01:15	34	09:04	-02:08	06:23	00:59
2011	15:31	00:13	14:40	01:56	36	10:08	-01:44	07:45	01:08
2012	-11:59	-08:35	-08:23	01:54	28	06:59	-02:43	05:27	01:15
2013	06:23	-01:17	11:20	03:07	36 of 44	06:54	-02:32	06:11	01:29
2014	-12:13	-01:05	-08:46	-02:56	29 of 40	04:47	-02:22	04:32	00:59
2015	-13:45	-00:47	-10:09	-00:57	49 of 61	02:56	-02:13	03:04	00:48
2016	03:32	-02:43	09:06	01:34	42 of 53	02:59	-02:16	03:37	00:52
2017	08:21	-00:05	08:49	01:36	43 of 63	03:26	-02:05	04:03	00:56

KPR points and Prize Money

IM South Africa is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$ and automatic Kona qualifier slots for the winners.

Estimated Time Plan

The following table shows the time plan for the race start and the estimated times for the first athlete to end each leg or finish the race. The estimates are based on the start time and my time estimates, these times can change based on how fast or slow the race ends up:

What	Racetime	Local Time
Male Pro Start		06:30
Female Pro Start		06:35
Age Group Start		06:45
First Male Out of Water	00:48	07:18
First Female Out of Water	00:49	07:24
First Male End of Bike	05:17	11:47
First Female End of Bike	05:52	12:27
Male Winner	08:08	14:38
Female Winner	09:02	15:37

Port Elizabeth is on South Africa Standard Time, 2 hours ahead of UTC. Here are the conversions to a few other time zones:

+8 hours: Melbourne (AEST), race starts at 2:30 pm
-1 hour: United Kingdom (BST), race starts at 5:30
no change: Central Europe (CEST), race starts at 6:30
– 6 hours: US East Coast (EDT), race starts at 12:30am
– 9 hours: US West Coast (PDT), race starts at 9:30pm on Saturday

There is going to be live TV coverage for the race in South Africa, so we can expect a live stream on Ironman.com as well.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 25% of a typical Kona field.

#	Bib	Name	Nat	Expected	Rating	ESwim	EBike	ET2	ERun	Consistency	Overall
1	1	Ben Hoffman	USA	08:07:57	08:17:42	00:50:31	04:25:44	05:21:15	02:46:42	43% +47% -9% (20)	9
2	4	~~James Cunnama~~	~~ZAF~~	~~08:15:13~~	~~08:20:37~~	~~00:50:30~~	~~04:26:22~~	~~05:21:52~~	~~02:53:21~~	~~45% +35% -19% (26)~~	14
3	17	Maurice Clavel	GER	08:17:19	08:38:13	00:50:21	04:25:08	05:20:29	02:56:50	47% +0% -53% (2)	(70)
4	5	Matt Trautman	ZAF	08:21:30	08:25:10	00:52:39	04:33:53	05:31:31	02:49:59	80% +0% -20% (6)	(22)
5	8	Ronnie Schildknecht	SUI	08:22:45	08:28:02	00:54:05	04:31:45	05:30:51	02:51:54	61% +0% -38% (34)	32
6	2	Kyle Buckingham	ZAF	08:22:49	08:31:55	00:51:03	04:33:43	05:29:47	02:53:02	65% +12% -22% (14)	47
7	18	Alessandro Degasperi	ITA	08:25:40	08:27:28	00:53:21	04:38:56	05:37:17	02:48:23	73% +0% -27% (13)	30
8	7	Eneko Llanos	ESP	08:26:18	08:28:58	00:50:31	04:29:49	05:25:20	03:00:58	85% +0% -15% (33)	34
9	6	Cameron Wurf	AUS	08:27:18	08:32:00	00:51:54	04:20:31	05:17:25	03:09:53	45% +43% -12% (9)	49
10	27	Giulio Molinari	ITA	08:28:19	08:31:38	00:50:30	04:31:09	05:26:39	03:01:40	100% +0% -0% (3)	45
11	12	Peru Alfaro	ESP	08:28:55	08:45:47	00:49:08	04:38:37	05:32:45	02:56:10	82% +0% -18% (3)	(90)
12	32	~~Evert Scheltinga~~	~~NED~~	~~08:29:43~~	~~08:34:05~~	~~00:51:01~~	~~04:30:56~~	~~05:26:57~~	~~03:02:46~~	~~77% +0% -23% (4)~~	55
13	3	Josh Amberger	AUS	08:32:44	08:35:28	00:48:22	04:28:32	05:21:54	03:10:50	57% +27% -15% (4)	61
14	11	Markus Fachbach	GER	08:33:21	08:41:20	00:51:48	04:36:25	05:33:14	03:00:07	60% +1% -40% (22)	80
15	9	Michael Raelert	GER	08:33:41	08:54:08	00:49:50	04:40:32	05:35:21	02:58:20	31% +0% -69% (4)	(120)
16	15	Alberto Casadei	ITA	08:35:41	08:49:52	00:49:49	04:45:52	05:40:41	02:55:00	34% +27% -39% (10)	104
17	20	Pedro Gomes	POR	08:37:50	08:43:05	00:53:49	04:44:12	05:43:01	02:54:49	57% +1% -43% (30)	83
18	33	Jonathan Shearon	USA	08:40:53	08:49:21	00:55:58	04:38:17	05:39:15	03:01:38	66% +6% -28% (20)	102
19	24	Philipp Koutny	SUI	08:42:26	08:56:30	00:52:51	04:36:30	05:34:22	03:08:04	46% +0% -54% (7)	131
20	31	Michael Ruenz	GER	08:43:26	08:51:56	00:57:17	04:45:22	05:47:39	02:55:47	68% +0% -32% (12)	113
21	34	Darby Thomas	FIN	08:48:38	09:01:05	01:01:14	04:41:43	05:47:57	03:00:41	53% +0% -47% (12)	153
22	28	Hans Muehlbauer	GER	09:09:16	09:23:25	00:54:07	05:05:33	06:04:40	03:04:36	45% +0% -55% (10)	(220)
23	10	Gerhard De Bruin	ZAF	09:16:31	09:29:52	00:57:10	04:57:10	05:59:20	03:17:11	76% +24% -0% (6)	(234)
24	21	Christian Jais	GER	09:17:05	09:40:35	00:58:45	04:48:30	05:52:15	03:24:50	18% +31% -51% (3)	(258)
25	16	Bekim Christensen	DEN	09:19:59	09:56:46	01:06:58	04:54:09	06:06:07	03:13:52	11% +0% -89% (3)	(273)
26	19	Alain Djouad-Guibert	MOR	10:29:54	11:05:02	01:16:02	05:12:41	06:33:42	03:56:12	12% +21% -67% (5)	(295)
27	23	Aleksander Kochetkov	LTU	10:51:18	11:11:58	01:11:38	05:38:42	06:55:20	03:55:58	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(296)
	14	Reece Barclay	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	22	Bruno Joaquim	BRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	25	Philippe Lamberty	LUX	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	29	Sebastian Norberg	SWE	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	30	Artem Parienko	RUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 30% of a typical Kona field.

#	Bib	Name	Nat	Expected	Rating	ESwim	EBike	ET2	ERun	Consistency	Overall
1	42	Lucy Charles	GBR	09:01:43	09:11:18	00:49:24	04:57:59	05:52:23	03:09:20	21% +79% -0% (3)	4
2	41	Susie Cheetham	GBR	09:09:57	09:14:05	00:56:40	05:03:28	06:05:09	03:04:48	87% +0% -13% (8)	5
3	49	~~Michelle Vesterby~~	~~DEN~~	~~09:15:58~~	~~09:19:44~~	~~00:54:21~~	~~05:01:25~~	~~06:00:46~~	~~03:15:12~~	~~78% +1% -20% (24)~~	8
4	44	Linsey Corbin	USA	09:17:40	09:19:59	01:00:21	05:05:40	06:11:01	03:06:39	95% +5% -0% (24)	9
5	63	Maja Stage Nielsen	DEN	09:19:55	09:22:13	01:01:00	05:05:09	06:11:09	03:08:46	100% +0% -0% (3)	17
6	46	Katja Konschak	GER	09:29:18	09:43:02	00:55:44	05:16:45	06:17:29	03:11:49	42% +38% -20% (20)	49
7	45	Gurutze Frades Larralde	ESP	09:32:33	09:40:34	01:03:11	05:14:29	06:22:40	03:09:53	70% +18% -12% (10)	46
8	59	Rachel McBride	CAN	09:33:53	09:41:52	00:55:02	04:59:25	05:59:28	03:34:25	100% +0% -0% (3)	48
9	51	Annah Watkinson	ZAF	09:34:21	09:48:01	01:01:00	05:10:37	06:16:36	03:17:45	58% +0% -42% (6)	57
10	47	~~Nikki Bartlett~~	~~GBR~~	~~09:36:25~~	~~09:54:15~~	~~01:01:42~~	~~05:08:09~~	~~06:14:51~~	~~03:21:34~~	~~69% +0% -31% (4)~~	69
11	53	Saleta Castro Nogueira	ESP	09:42:08	09:49:02	00:57:36	05:23:14	06:25:50	03:16:18	74% +19% -8% (15)	61
12	58	Carolin Lehrieder	GER	09:42:28	10:20:29	00:57:34	05:16:41	06:19:15	03:23:13	20% +7% -73% (11)	(115)
13	48	Katharina Grohmann	GER	09:42:35	09:53:30	01:13:07	05:10:58	06:29:05	03:13:30	77% +23% -0% (17)	67
14	57	Martina Kunz	SUI	09:43:07	09:55:40	01:04:41	05:10:42	06:20:23	03:22:44	100% +0% -0% (2)	(71)
15	60	Leslie DiMichele Miller	USA	09:45:11	09:54:25	01:00:09	05:23:14	06:28:23	03:16:48	72% +16% -12% (8)	70
16	55	Manon Genet	FRA	09:48:57	10:00:17	01:00:20	05:08:17	06:13:37	03:35:20	27% +37% -35% (3)	(76)
17	56	Corina Hengartner	SUI	09:49:20	10:06:37	01:04:04	05:12:30	06:21:34	03:27:46	34% +32% -34% (7)	90
18	62	Lina-Kristin Schink	GER	09:57:48	10:15:09	01:12:49	05:22:52	06:40:42	03:17:06	57% +18% -24% (10)	109
19	54	Camille Donat	FRA	10:13:45	10:33:13	00:53:28	05:30:11	06:28:40	03:45:05	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(132)
20	61	Charlotte Morel	FRA	10:31:25	10:51:28	00:56:38	05:16:24	06:18:01	04:13:24	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(144)
21	52	Patricia Bueno Perez	ESP	10:43:15	11:04:27	01:05:57	05:44:27	06:55:25	03:47:50	46% +54% -0% (2)	(148)
	43	Emma Pallant	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	50	Judith Corachan Vacquero	ESP	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Ben Hoffman, the winner of the last two years, is back to defend his title and is the favorite to extend his winning streak in Port Elizabeth. James Cunnama has been chasing a good result in his home IM for a long time, he hopes to win this race since his third place in 2011. Last year he was a disappointing tenth, but since then he’s been superb on the IM distance, including a win at IM Hamburg and a fifth in Kona. Two Australians are expected to play a big role in the race: Josh Amberger will likely lead the race in T1, and Cam Wurf should be the fastest bike rider in the field and should take the lead before T2, maybe even posting a new bike course record (provided the conditions are favorable). But as always in a Regional Championship field, there are lots of candidates for the win and almost the whole field looks to score solid points for a potential Kona qualification.

Ben Hoffman: 56% (1-1)
~~James Cunnama: 22% (3-1)~~
Josh Amberger: 6% (17-1)
Ronnie Schildknecht: 5% (19-1)
Kyle Buckingham: 3% (35-1)
Alessandro Degasperi: 2% (55-1)
Matt Trautman: 2% (57-1)
Cameron Wurf: 2% (65-1)

Female Race Participants

For various reasons, none of the previous champions are on the start list this year, so we are going to have a new winner. The odds are favoring one of the British to come home with the title: Lucy Charles made great improvements in 2017 and looks like a very likely T1 and T2 leader, but Susie Cheetham has also had a very solid 2017 season and has been on the podium in Port Elizabeth in all three of her IM South Africa starts. With Emma Pallant there is another interesting British athlete in the field: The second place finisher at 70.3 Worlds will be racing her first Ironman. ~~Michelle Vesterby (20 IM finishes) and~~ Linsey Corbin (23 IM finishes) are two experienced athletes that also have good winning chances, but there are a lot more athletes on the start list that will look for a good start of the season after their winter training block.

Lucy Charles: 44% (1-1)
Susie Cheetham: 31% (2-1)
~~Michelle Vesterby: 17% (5-1)~~
Linsey Corbin: 5% (17-1)

Ironman South Africa 2018 (April 15th) – Entry List

March 20, 2018

Update March 20th: Added

WPRO: Patricia Bueno Perez, Lucy Charles, Carolin Lehrieder
MPRO: Peru Alfaro, Reece Barclay, James Cunnama, Darby Thomas

Update March 10th: Added

WPRO: Linsey Corbin, Monica Juhart, Katja Konschak, Martina Kunz, Asa Lundstroem, Charlotte Morel, Michelle Vesterby, Annah Watkinson
MPRO: Josh Amberger, Alberto Casadei, Gerhard De Bruin, Eneko Llanos, Dylan McNeice, Giulio Molinari, Hans Muehlbauer, Evert Scheltinga, Jonathan Shearon, Matt Trautman, Cameron Wurf

Male Race Participants

Name	Nation	KPR points	KPR races
James Cunnama	ZAF	6500	1+2 (5250/500)
Ben Hoffman	USA	3845	1+1
Cameron Wurf	AUS	2880	2+0
Maurice Clavel	GER	2205	0+2 (0/435)
Ruedi Wild	SUI	1860	1+2 (1100/220)
Jonathan Shearon	USA	1720	2+2 (540/100)
Matt Trautman	ZAF	1535	0+2 (0/750)
Josh Amberger	AUS	980	1+1
Ronnie Schildknecht	SUI	915	1+2 (235/180)
Philipp Koutny	SUI	875	2+1
Pedro Gomes	POR	615	1+2 (540/30)
Evert Scheltinga	NED	540	0+1
Dylan McNeice	NZL	520	1+1
Alessandro Degasperi	ITA	450	1+0
Michael Raelert	GER	400	0+1
Eneko Llanos	ESP	340	1+0
Giulio Molinari	ITA	340	1+0
Alberto Casadei	ITA	240	0+1
Michael Ruenz	GER	231	1+1
Gerhard De Bruin	ZAF	140	0+1
Bruno Joaquim	BRA	140	0+1
Darby Thomas	FIN	120	1+0
Alain Djouad-Guibert	MOR	5	0+1
Peru Alfaro	ESP	0	0+0
Christian Jais	GER	0	0+0
Aleksander Kochetkov	LTU	0	0+0
Philippe Lamberty	LUX	0	0+0
Sebastian Norberg	SWE	0	0+0
Artem Parienko	RUS	0	0+0
Reece Barclay	GBR
Hans Muehlbauer	GER

Female Race Participants

Name	Nation	KPR points	KPR races
Lucy Charles	GBR	7840	1+1
Susie Cheetham	GBR	5160	1+1
Emma Pallant	GBR	3620	0+2 (0/920)
Linsey Corbin	USA	2735	1+2 (1900/400)
Maja Stage Nielsen	DEN	2480	1+1
Asa Lundstroem	SWE	1780	2+1
Angela Naeth	CAN	1425	0+2 (0/640)
Manon Genet	FRA	1280	1+0
Charlotte Morel	FRA	1280	1+0
Saleta Castro Nogueira	ESP	1140	1+1
Katja Konschak	GER	960	1+0
Michelle Vesterby	DEN	960	1+0
Rachel McBride	CAN	840	1+1
Monica Juhart	AUS	775	1+2 (305/125)
Gurutze Frades Larralde	ESP	740	1+1
Martina Kunz	SUI	720	1+1
Annah Watkinson	ZAF	625	0+2 (0/280)
Leslie DiMichele Miller	USA	490	1+1
Judith Corachan Vacquero	ESP	390	0+2 (0/170)
Katharina Grohmann	GER	340	1+0
Nikki Bartlett	GBR	220	0+1
Lina-Kristin Schink	GER	220	0+1
Patricia Bueno Perez	ESP	160	1+1
Corina Hengartner	SUI	10	1+0
Camille Donat	FRA	0	0+0
Carolin Lehrieder	GER	0	0+0

Ironman South Africa 2017 – Analyzing Results

April 3, 2017

Race Conditions

Even if it was hot and windy, the conditions were quick this year: An adjustment of 8:21 was about five minutes quicker than last year which had been pretty typical for South Africa.

The winning time by Ben Hoffman of 7:58:40 was the first sub-8 finish ever in South Africa – even with the course changes last year this was a great new course record (the old fastest time was 8:05 by Raynard Tissink from 2011). Ben also posted a new run course record of 2:42:52, improving on the 2007 time by Gerrit Schellens. Nils Frommhold was also under both old course records, but was just a touch slower than Ben.

On the female side both Daniela and Kaisa finished sub-9 and were clearly under last year’s winning time, but the course records are still held by Chrissie Wellington from her 2011 win in 8:33 (including a 4:45 bike and a 2:52 marathon).

Male Race Results

As expected Cameron Wurf was leading on the bike, but when he lost some of his advantage towards the end of the bike leg, it was clear that he’d have a hard time to hold on to his lead on the run. Defending champion Ben Hoffman quickly went to the front on the marathon and even though Nils Frommhold was running strong and didn’t let Ben get away too far, he was never able to completely close the gap. In the end, Ben won by 50 seconds over Nils. Third place went to David McNamee who had the best run of the athletes in the second bike chase group, closely followed by South African Kyle Buckingham and Jan Van Berkel who were both having great days including strong marathons.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to exp.	Prize Money	KPR Points
1	Ben Hoffman	USA	00:49:14	04:22:33	02:42:52	07:58:40	-19:14	US$ 30,000	4000
2	Nils Frommhold	GER	00:49:05	04:22:31	02:43:43	07:59:30	-12:12	US$ 15,000	3400
3	David McNamee	GBR	00:49:09	04:28:45	02:45:36	08:07:31	-10:07	US$ 8,000	2890
4	Kyle Buckingham	ZAF	00:49:15	04:28:38	02:47:09	08:08:58	-21:27	US$ 6,500	2455
5	Jan Van Berkel	SUI	00:49:12	04:28:41	02:50:46	08:12:35	-22:21	US$ 5,000	2090
6	Boris Stein	GER	00:53:57	04:23:49	02:54:05	08:16:12	-00:48	US$ 3,500	1670
7	Frederik Van Lierde	BEL	00:49:05	04:28:32	02:57:02	08:19:10	07:18	US$ 2,500	1335
8	Giulio Molinari	ITA	00:49:07	04:28:34	02:59:16	08:21:09	01:25	US$ 2,000	1070
9	Andrej Vistica	CRO	00:53:53	04:34:43	02:50:01	08:23:21	-09:20	US$ 1,500	855
10	James Cunnama	ZAF	00:49:10	04:28:47	03:02:46	08:24:42	-01:34	US$ 1,000	685
11	Cameron Wurf	AUS	00:49:13	04:20:11	03:11:44	08:25:31	-31:04		515
12	Joe Skipper	GBR	00:53:59	04:32:04	02:57:57	08:28:46	04:13		385
13	Evert Scheltinga	NED	00:49:12	04:28:40	03:08:59	08:31:04	n/a		290
14	Eneko Llanos	ESP	00:49:19	04:28:31	03:11:44	08:34:15	16:35		215
15	Mario De Elias	ARG	00:53:58	04:34:47	03:03:29	08:36:22	-07:15		160
16	Johann Ackermann	GER	00:49:06	04:34:37	03:07:56	08:39:44	13:12		120
17	Roman Deisenhofer	GER	00:49:18	04:33:46	03:15:34	08:43:30	-01:00		90
18	Josh Amberger	AUS	00:48:02	04:29:29	03:23:11	08:44:41	n/a		70
19	Diego Van Looy	BEL	01:05:44	04:46:28	02:51:42	08:49:32	09:01		50
20	Erik-Simon Strijk	NED	00:53:54	04:34:39	03:27:10	09:00:36	21:10		40
21	Gerhard De Bruin	ZAF	00:55:46	04:53:50	03:13:00	09:07:31	-16:55		25
22	Freddy Lampret	ZAF	00:55:50	04:53:26	03:58:22	09:52:28	42:16		25
23	Emanuele Ciotti	ITA	00:53:56	04:58:15	03:54:46	09:53:08	32:22		25
24	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	01:00:07	05:41:27	03:11:04	09:59:52	54:39		25
25	Valentin Zasypkin	RUS	01:12:27	05:23:03	03:33:42	10:13:45	-32:17		25
	Carlos Aznar Gallego	ESP				DNF
	Christian Kramer	GER	00:49:10	04:37:07		DNF
	Jens Petersen-Bach	DEN	00:49:11	04:42:34		DNF
	Fredrik Baeckson	SWE	00:56:28	04:46:25		DNF
	Balazs Csoke	HUN	00:49:02	04:55:57		DNF
	Greg Close	USA	00:59:42	04:56:49		DNF
	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	00:48:05	05:17:49		DNF
	Ivan Risti	ITA	00:49:11			DNF
	Vinicius Canhedo	BRA	00:53:51			DNF
	Victor Del Corral	ESP	00:53:55			DNF
	Toumy Degham	FRA	00:54:00			DNF
	Bekim Christensen	DEN	01:05:14			DNF

Female Race Results

When Daniela Ryf was second out of the water (same time as Kate Comber) it looked like another start-to-finish win for her. But then Kaisa Lehtonen, Susie Cheetham and Julia Gajer were able to overtake her and build a two-minute lead towards the 90k mark. After the race Daniela revealed that she had back issues and almost didn’t start. After about three hours the pain eased and Daniela was able to take the lead in the second half of the bike, posting the fastest bike split of the day. She also posted a 2:57 marathon – the fastest run of the day – and won in 8:47. Kaisa Lehtonen also had a strong run and though she was five minutes back it never looked as if Daniela could just cruise home. Kaisa improved on her winning 9:06 finish from last year by more than 14 minutes. Third place went to Susie Cheetham who finished on the podium for the third time in three years of racing South Africa. When Julia Gajer started to struggle on the run (she had to dig deep to at least be able to finish the race), there were eight athletes within a few minutes close to the finish line – in the end there were five minutes between 4th and 11th place. Astrid Stienen had the most even race, she rode a 5:01 and was able to run a 3:16 marathon, just 22 seconds in front of Gurutze Frades in fifth.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to exp.	Prize Money	KPR Points
1	Daniela Ryf	SUI	00:53:48	04:50:50	02:57:27	08:47:02	06:07	US$ 30,000	4000
2	Kaisa Lehtonen	FIN	00:55:29	04:53:03	02:59:10	08:52:26	-12:17	US$ 15,000	3400
3	Susie Cheetham	GBR	00:53:56	04:57:43	03:08:36	09:04:49	-02:43	US$ 8,000	2890
4	Astrid Stienen	GER	01:01:07	05:01:42	03:16:52	09:24:37	05:58	US$ 6,500	2455
5	Gurutze Frades Larralde	ESP	01:00:37	05:11:20	03:08:02	09:24:59	-16:30	US$ 5,000	2090
6	Katja Konschak	GER	00:53:57	05:09:48	03:15:01	09:25:40	-16:42	US$ 3,500	1670
7	Alexandra Tondeur	BEL	00:58:37	05:08:06	03:13:09	09:26:29	-06:12	US$ 2,500	1335
8	Jeanne Collonge	FRA	00:59:47	05:04:58	03:16:09	09:27:18	-12:03	US$ 2,000	1070
9	Nikki Bartlett	GBR	00:58:40	05:03:09	03:19:59	09:27:49	-14:47	US$ 1,500	855
10	Katharina Grohmann	GER	01:10:04	05:05:47	03:08:56	09:29:20	-19:07	US$ 1,000	685
11	Ariane Monticeli	BRA	00:58:45	05:13:11	03:11:48	09:29:27	-06:42		515
12	Kate Comber	GBR	00:53:48	05:15:47	03:31:24	09:47:44	01:57		385
13	Manon Genet	FRA	00:58:44	05:03:36	03:42:29	09:50:32	n/a		290
14	Diane Luethi	SUI	00:58:34	05:17:12	03:31:51	09:52:50	05:41		215
15	Lina-Kristin Schink	GER	01:11:31	05:24:17	03:14:13	09:54:47	-06:42		160
16	Julia Gajer	GER	00:53:54	04:55:58	04:00:13	09:55:08	47:56		120
17	Jenny Fletcher	CAN	00:58:41	05:20:59	03:33:14	09:59:27	12:01		90
18	Steph Corker	CAN	01:01:41	05:27:35	03:28:32	10:04:18	n/a		70
	Natascha Schmitt	GER	00:58:43	05:15:21		DNF
	Kristin Moeller	GER	01:06:23	05:09:18		DNF
	Dimity-Lee Duke	AUS	00:58:37	05:25:19		DNF
	Danielle Mack	USA	01:06:12	05:34:36		DNF
	Carolin Lehrieder	GER	00:58:29			DNF
	Kirsty Jahn	CAN	00:58:33			DNF
	Annah Watkinson	ZAF	00:58:39			DNF
	Helena Herrero Gomez	ESP	01:09:05			DNF

Kona Qualifying

The points from IM South Africa allowed a number of athletes to improve their chances for Kona qualifying.

Male Slots

The following athletes have secured their Kona slots:

Ben Hoffman (Automatic Qualifier as a Regional Champion)
Frederik Van Lierde (Automatic Qualifier as a previous Kona champion, he had already validated)
Boris Stein (safe with 5.920 points)
David McNamee (safe with 4.790 points)

Nils Frommhold is on the bubble, another 70.3 race should be enough to secure the remaining points he still needs. Kyle Buckingham needs at least another 500 points, he probably needs another Ironman race.

Female Slots

The following athletes have secured their Kona slots:

Daniela Ryf (Automatic Qualifier as a previous Kona champion and winner of a Regional Championship)
Kaisa Lehtonen (safe with 9.495 points)
Astrid Stienen (safe with 5.495 points)

Susie Cheetham has improved her total to 3.480 points, she will likely have to race another Ironman to secure a Kona slot.

Ironman South Africa 2017 (April 2nd) – Seedings

April 3, 2017

IMSA_Logo With Ironman South Africa, the first Regional Championship of 2017 is coming up, offering direct Kona slots for the winners. The resulting fields are very strong, both defending Champions Kaisa Lehtonen and Ben Hoffman are back. On the male side we have the three last winners (Nils Frommhold, Frederik Van Lierde and Ben Hoffmann), on the female side we have Kona winner Daniela Ryf and three of the five Regional Champions from last year (Kaisa Lehtonen, Julia Gajer who won IM Texas and Jodie Cunnama who won IM Cairns).

Update March 28th: Jodie Cunnama announced she won’t be racing “for health reasons”.

Update March 27th: On Twitter Rachel McBride said “Wish I was there! Alas not racing”.

Update March 17th: Mareen Hufe (planning to race IM Brasil) and Laura Siddall won’t be racing.

Update March 20th: Alessandro Degasperi has announced on his blog he’ll focus on IM Lanzarote.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2006	Gerrit Schellens (BEL)	08:36:06	Natascha Badmann (SUI)	09:46:38
2007	Gerrit Schellens (BEL)	08:33:05	Natascha Badmann (SUI)	09:22:01
2008	Stephen Bayliss (GBR)	08:18:23	Bella Bayliss (GBR)	09:27:48
2009	Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL)	08:17:32	Lucie Reed (CZE)	09:16:32
2010	Raynard Tissink (ZAF)	08:23:28	Sonja Tajsich (GER)	09:16:55
2011	Raynard Tissink (ZAF)	08:05:36	Chrissie Wellington (GBR)	08:33:56
2012	Clemente Alonso McKernan (ESP)	08:34:45	Natascha Badmann (SUI)	09:47:10
2013	Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI)	08:11:24	Jessie Donavan (USA)	09:10:58
2014	Nils Frommhold (GER)	08:26:07	Simone Braendli (SUI)	09:31:54
2015	Frederik Van Lierde (BEL)	08:16:35	Jodie Cunnama (GBR)	09:26:56
2016	Ben Hoffman (USA)	08:12:37	Kaisa Lehtonen (FIN)	09:06:50

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Ben Hoffman	USA	00:52:58	04:29:36	02:45:50	08:12:37
2	Tim Van Berkel	AUS	00:50:00	04:32:33	02:48:15	08:14:51
3	Marko Albert	EST	00:49:37	04:30:53	02:54:19	08:18:52

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Kaisa Lehtonen	FIN	00:58:21	04:59:41	03:02:34	09:06:50
2	Susie Cheetham	GBR	00:58:21	05:04:26	03:02:43	09:09:49
3	Lucy Gossage	GBR	01:03:20	04:56:10	03:07:36	09:11:43

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:05:36	Raynard Tissink	2011-04-10
Swim	overall	00:45:22	Anton Storm	2009-04-05
Bike	overall	04:19:41	Raynard Tissink	2011-04-10
Run	overall	02:45:48	Gerrit Schellens	2007-03-18
Total	female	08:33:56	Chrissie Wellington	2011-04-10
Swim	female	00:47:40	Lucie Reed	2009-04-05
Bike	female	04:45:23	Chrissie Wellington	2011-04-10
Run	female	02:52:54	Chrissie Wellington	2011-04-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM South Africa is 02:59.

Race Adjustments for IM South Africa

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2006	01:35	-04:53	-01:53	-00:21	28	01:35	-04:53	-01:53	-00:21
2007	01:16	-08:52	03:31	00:49	33	01:26	-06:52	00:49	00:14
2008	15:32	01:13	11:14	04:15	36	06:08	-04:11	04:18	01:34
2009	17:18	02:09	10:45	-01:03	28	08:55	-02:36	05:54	00:55
2010	09:39	-00:15	08:15	01:15	34	09:04	-02:08	06:23	00:59
2011	15:31	00:13	14:40	01:56	36	10:08	-01:44	07:45	01:08
2012	-11:59	-08:35	-08:23	01:54	28	06:59	-02:43	05:27	01:15
2013	06:23	-01:17	11:20	03:07	36 of 44	06:54	-02:32	06:11	01:29
2014	-12:13	-01:05	-08:46	-02:56	29 of 40	04:47	-02:22	04:32	00:59
2015	-13:45	-00:47	-10:09	-00:57	49 of 61	02:56	-02:13	03:04	00:48
2016	03:32	-02:43	09:06	01:34	42 of 53	02:59	-02:16	03:37	00:52

KPR points and Prize Money

IM South Africa is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$.

Estimated Time Plan

What	Racetime	Local Time
Male Pro Start		06:30
Female Pro Start		06:35
Age Group Start		06:45
First Male Out of Water	00:50	07:20
First Female Out of Water	00:51	07:26
First Male End of Bike	05:21	11:51
First Female End of Bike	05:49	12:24
Male Winner	08:13	14:43
Female Winner	08:49	15:24

Port Elizabeth is on South Africa Standard Time, 2 hours ahead of UTC. Here are the conversions to a few other time zones:

+8 hours: Melbourne (AEST, DST ends on April 2nd)
-1 hour: United Kingdom (BST), race starts at 5:30
no change: Central Europe (CEST), race starts at 6:30
– 5 hours: US East Coast (EDT), race starts at 12:30am
– 8 hours: US West Coast (PDT), race starts at 9:30pm on Saturday

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	2	Frederik Van Lierde	BEL	08:13:03	08:19:35	00:50:04	04:26:50	02:51:08	80% +9% -11% (22)	8
2	3	Nils Frommhold	GER	08:15:45	08:19:07	00:49:53	04:26:42	02:54:10	83% +0% -17% (8)	6
3	1	Ben Hoffman	USA	08:16:55	08:25:18	00:51:18	04:31:09	02:49:27	34% +50% -16% (18)	19
4	4	Boris Stein	GER	08:20:51	08:24:41	00:54:49	04:29:07	02:51:54	65% +35% -0% (7)	15
5	8	Eneko Llanos	ESP	08:23:55	08:25:37	00:50:21	04:29:04	02:59:30	90% +0% -10% (28)	21
6	10	David McNamee	GBR	08:25:27	08:25:11	00:49:49	04:41:24	02:49:14	100% +0% -0% (5)	18
7	34	Joe Skipper	GBR	08:27:12	08:34:59	00:56:35	04:34:05	02:51:32	32% +29% -40% (14)	48
8	28	Giulio Molinari	ITA	08:29:44	08:42:52	00:51:47	04:30:32	03:02:25	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(77)
9	7	James Cunnama	ZAF	08:29:55	08:34:05	00:51:37	04:36:20	02:56:57	57% +10% -33% (23)	38
10	5	~~Alessandro Degasperi~~	~~ITA~~	~~08:30:31~~	~~08:35:14~~	~~00:53:18~~	~~04:42:44~~	~~02:49:28~~	~~73% +0% -27% (9)~~	50
11	6	Kyle Buckingham	ZAF	08:31:17	08:43:10	00:50:53	04:33:35	03:01:50	62% +0% -38% (11)	78
12	13	Johann Ackermann	GER	08:31:19	08:39:43	00:49:58	04:32:09	03:04:12	55% +0% -45% (8)	66
13	25	Christian Kramer	GER	08:32:29	08:35:41	00:49:35	04:37:04	03:00:49	77% +7% -16% (19)	54
14	11	Jens Petersen-Bach	DEN	08:33:30	08:34:21	00:53:04	04:43:40	02:51:45	63% +0% -37% (17)	42
15	9	Victor Del Corral	ESP	08:34:55	08:39:39	00:57:59	04:41:12	02:50:44	51% +0% -49% (15)	65
16	24	Markus Fachbach	GER	08:34:58	08:35:48	00:52:40	04:38:06	02:59:12	69% +1% -31% (20)	55
17	38	Jan Van Berkel	SUI	08:36:22	08:47:47	00:51:53	04:37:15	03:02:14	56% +9% -35% (13)	92
18	40	Andrej Vistica	CRO	08:36:24	08:40:28	00:55:30	04:39:12	02:56:43	83% +0% -17% (12)	71
19	31	Michael Ruenz	GER	08:44:23	08:51:13	00:57:17	04:47:07	02:54:59	71% +0% -29% (9)	101
20	29	Ivan Risti	ITA	08:46:21	09:04:06	00:50:42	04:46:30	03:04:09	39% +17% -44% (8)	154
21	23	Mario De Elias	ARG	08:46:33	09:02:17	00:53:33	04:50:57	02:57:04	2% +54% -43% (7)	146
22	35	Erik-Simon Strijk	NED	08:46:38	08:53:05	00:55:36	04:44:50	03:01:11	97% +3% -0% (8)	109
23	30	Roman Deisenhofer	GER	08:48:15	08:57:56	00:55:06	04:40:25	03:07:43	32% +68% -0% (6)	126
24	12	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	08:48:27	08:51:26	00:49:49	04:48:46	03:04:51	39% +26% -35% (18)	102
25	39	Diego Van Looy	BEL	08:50:59	08:54:00	01:08:19	04:46:08	02:51:32	100% +0% -0% (3)	113
26	73	Cameron Wurf	AUS	08:58:50	09:15:20	00:52:20	04:21:11	03:40:20	44% +56% -0% (2)	(183)
27	21	Balazs Csoke	HUN	08:58:59	09:03:32	00:50:01	04:52:33	03:11:26	47% +12% -41% (26)	152
28	26	Freddy Lampret	ZAF	09:00:06	09:36:19	00:54:42	04:47:12	03:13:13	1% +30% -69% (9)	(237)
29	37	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	09:01:44	09:14:30	00:58:43	04:51:43	03:06:18	69% +1% -29% (96)	179
30	20	Greg Close	USA	09:08:51	09:22:01	01:01:17	04:57:05	03:05:29	63% +0% -37% (7)	(199)
31	22	Gerhard De Bruin	ZAF	09:22:53	09:38:37	00:56:48	04:57:32	03:23:33	65% +35% -0% (5)	241
32	18	Bekim Christensen	DEN	09:24:39	09:39:12	01:07:39	04:56:41	03:15:19	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(243)
33	15	Carlos Aznar Gallego	ESP	09:27:03	09:41:39	01:06:27	05:06:47	03:08:48	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(246)
34	19	Emanuele Ciotti	ITA	09:31:03	09:35:39	00:55:03	04:56:38	03:34:22	60% +0% -40% (5)	235
35	41	Valentin Zasypkin	RUS	10:35:03	11:02:05	01:15:31	05:26:12	03:48:20	13% +23% -64% (5)	(295)
36	33	Drew Scott	USA	11:17:09	11:41:33	00:52:08	04:43:27	05:36:33	45% +0% -55% (2)	(297)
	14	Josh Amberger	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	16	Fredrik Baeckson	SWE	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	17	Vinicius Canhedo	BRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	32	Evert Scheltinga	NED	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	0% +0% -100% (2)	(n/a)
	36	Toumy Degham	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	43	Daniela Ryf	SUI	08:49:25	08:41:40	00:53:37	04:50:15	03:00:33	85% +0% -15% (9)	1
2	42	Kaisa Lehtonen	FIN	09:10:40	09:12:57	00:58:02	05:05:14	03:02:23	100% +0% -0% (3)	4
3	44	~~Jodie Cunnama~~	~~GBR~~	~~09:11:43~~	09:19:34	~~00:50:53~~	~~04:58:51~~	~~03:16:59~~	~~52% +0% -48% (12)~~	11
4	45	Susie Cheetham	GBR	09:11:52	09:21:32	00:57:29	05:08:02	03:01:21	69% +0% -31% (5)	14
5	46	Julia Gajer	GER	09:17:04	09:21:58	00:55:35	05:08:38	03:07:51	60% +0% -40% (12)	(15)
6	47	Astrid Stienen	GER	09:23:18	09:27:23	01:01:27	05:02:42	03:14:09	35% +28% -36% (10)	21
7	53	~~Laura Siddall~~	~~GBR~~	~~09:23:29~~	~~09:32:32~~	~~01:00:04~~	~~05:02:08~~	~~03:16:16~~	~~63% +30% -7% (10)~~	33
8	48	~~Mareen Hufe~~	~~GER~~	~~09:29:17~~	~~09:30:03~~	~~01:03:33~~	~~05:02:02~~	~~03:18:42~~	~~76% +15% -8% (23)~~	28
9	68	Danielle Mack	USA	09:37:51	09:44:37	01:04:43	05:19:19	03:08:48	52% +20% -28% (8)	54
10	52	Kristin Moeller	GER	09:40:14	09:42:40	01:06:39	05:25:55	03:02:41	80% +8% -12% (21)	51
11	49	Annah Watkinson	ZAF	09:40:46	09:44:35	01:01:09	05:15:17	03:19:19	100% +0% -0% (3)	53
12	64	Kirsty Jahn	CAN	09:41:16	09:56:15	01:01:49	05:24:18	03:10:09	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(72)
13	65	Katja Konschak	GER	09:42:18	09:51:07	00:56:14	05:25:21	03:15:42	42% +28% -30% (18)	63
14	74	Ariane Monticeli	BRA	09:42:58	09:44:58	01:04:36	05:20:56	03:12:26	52% +18% -29% (16)	56
15	69	~~Rachel McBride~~	~~CAN~~	~~09:42:59~~	~~09:58:00~~	~~00:59:09~~	~~05:07:10~~	~~03:31:40~~	~~n/a (1 IM Pro race)~~	~~(76)~~
16	72	Alexandra Tondeur	BEL	09:43:30	09:41:27	01:03:59	05:20:50	03:13:41	100% +0% -0% (3)	47
17	60	Dimity-Lee Duke	AUS	09:43:48	09:42:24	01:02:54	05:16:16	03:19:38	83% +17% -0% (11)	50
18	71	Natascha Schmitt	GER	09:43:53	09:57:04	00:57:09	05:12:21	03:29:23	44% +31% -25% (7)	73
19	50	Gurutze Frades Larralde	ESP	09:44:05	09:50:13	01:04:31	05:21:33	03:13:00	34% +39% -27% (7)	61
20	59	Camille Deligny	FRA	09:46:42	09:56:35	01:05:10	05:05:06	03:31:26	100% +0% -0% (2)	(72)
21	66	Carolin Lehrieder	GER	09:47:19	10:02:14	00:58:10	05:19:25	03:24:44	38% +14% -49% (8)	82
22	56	Jeanne Collonge	FRA	09:47:39	09:54:01	01:01:46	05:11:44	03:29:09	50% +5% -45% (10)	68
23	51	Katharina Grohmann	GER	09:52:11	10:03:14	01:14:04	05:16:31	03:16:36	100% +0% -0% (14)	84
24	54	Nikki Bartlett	GBR	09:54:00	10:09:18	01:06:16	05:17:38	03:25:05	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(95)
25	67	Diane Luethi	SUI	09:56:21	10:08:18	00:57:56	05:22:37	03:30:48	100% +0% -0% (2)	(94)
26	57	Kate Comber	GBR	09:57:34	10:00:50	00:56:51	05:25:21	03:30:23	100% +0% -0% (3)	78
27	61	Jenny Fletcher	CAN	09:59:20	10:14:47	00:59:15	05:22:14	03:32:51	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(104)
28	70	Lina-Kristin Schink	GER	10:09:34	10:16:48	01:15:23	05:20:25	03:28:46	83% +0% -17% (7)	107
29	55	Rahel Bellinga	NED	10:12:34	10:32:18	01:08:48	05:13:20	03:45:27	71% +21% -8% (7)	134
30	63	Helena Herrero Gomez	ESP	10:15:44	10:27:56	01:02:51	05:44:14	03:23:39	50% +0% -50% (7)	125
	58	Steph Corker	CAN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	62	Manon Genet	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The male race has two favorites – the winners from the last two years. Frederik Van Lierde had a fantastic race in Port Elizabeth in 2015, but Ben might have the momentum after a great 2016 season. Nils Frommhold is the 2014 winner, he’s looking for a good result after a frustrating 2016 season cut short by another stress fracture. Boris Stein needs just a finish for a Kona slot, but as last year he’ll be racing aggressively to test for any weaknesses to work on over the summer.

Frederik Van Lierde: 33% (2-1)
Ben Hoffman: 32% (2-1)
Nils Frommhold: 21% (4-1)
Boris Stein: 9% (10-1)

There is a number of other strong contenders not shown in the above list, for example I expect Eneko Llanos, Joe Skipper and David McNamee to contend for a podium spot.

Female Race Participants

There can’t be any discussion that two-time Kona champion Daniela Ryf has to be the favorite, even if the race is early in her season. Jodie Cunnama is likely to be leading after the swim, it’ll be interesting to see if she tries to go with Daniela on the bike, trying to reclaim her 2015 title that she lost after crashing under dubious circumstances last year. Kaisa Lehtonen has proven in Kona that her win at IM South Africa in 2016 wasn’t a “fluke result”, I’m looking forward to see her race after deciding to be coached by Siri Lindley last fall.

Daniela Ryf: 69% (1-1)
Kaisa Lehtonen: 15% (6-1)
Jodie Cunnama: 7% (14-1)

Susie Cheetham (3rd in 2015, 2nd in 2016, so what’s in store for 2017?) should be in the mix for at least a podium spot, and I expect a number of German athletes such as Julia Gajer, Astrid Stienen or ~~Mareen Hufe~~ (~~more likely to~~ racing IM Brasil) to have some good early season form as well. Laura Siddall has already raced two IM-distance races in New Zealand, ~~I’d be surprised to see her on the start line, but watch out for her if she is!~~ (Laura has withdrawn from racing IM South Africa.)