Challenge Roth 2015 (July 12th) – Predictions

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	Chris McCormack (AUS)	07:58:45	Belinda Granger (AUS)	09:14:06
2006	Chris McCormack (AUS)	08:00:52	Joanna Lawn (NZL)	09:01:17
2007	Chris McCormack (AUS)	07:54:23	Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED)	08:51:55
2008	Patrick Vernay (NCL)	08:09:34	Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED)	08:45:48
2009	Michael Goehner (GER)	07:55:53	Chrissie Wellington (GBR)	08:31:59
2010	Rasmus Henning (DEN)	07:52:36	Chrissie Wellington (GBR)	08:19:13
2011	Andreas Raelert (GER)	07:41:33	Chrissie Wellington (GBR)	08:18:13
2012	James Cunnama (ZAF)	07:59:59	Rachel Joyce (GBR)	08:45:04
2013	Dirk Bockel (LUX)	07:52:01	Caroline Steffen (SUI)	08:40:35
2014	Timo Bracht (GER)	07:56:00	Mirinda Carfrae (AUS)	08:38:53

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Timo Bracht	GER	00:48:58	04:19:59	02:44:32	07:56:00
2	Nils Frommhold	GER	00:48:39	04:15:16	02:54:03	08:00:39
3	Eneko Llanos	ESP	00:49:02	04:19:54	02:57:35	08:09:29

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Mirinda Carfrae	AUS	00:55:24	04:46:48	02:53:27	08:38:53
2	Rachel Joyce	GBR	00:52:43	04:43:11	03:03:21	08:42:25
3	Caroline Steffen	SUI	00:52:08	04:48:14	03:05:05	08:48:42

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	07:41:33	Andreas Raelert	2011-07-10
Swim	overall	00:45:57	Pete Jacobs	2009-07-12
Bike	overall	04:11:43	Andreas Raelert	2011-07-10
Run	overall	02:39:43	Rasmus Henning	2010-07-18
Total	female	08:18:13	Chrissie Wellington	2011-07-10
Swim	female	00:47:27	Ute Mueckel	2005-06-24
Bike	female	04:36:33	Chrissie Wellington	2010-07-18
Run	female	02:44:35	Chrissie Wellington	2011-07-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Roth is 18:43.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Roth

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2005	18:02	01:08	13:32	05:29	9	18:02	01:08	13:32	05:29
2006	12:37	01:17	06:34	03:26	37	15:19	01:13	10:03	04:28
2007	22:56	00:52	10:30	06:52	28	17:52	01:06	10:12	05:16
2008	20:40	01:58	06:45	08:00	38	18:34	01:19	09:20	05:57
2009	25:59	02:04	15:06	05:07	41	20:03	01:28	10:29	05:47
2010	18:59	00:27	07:25	05:17	42	19:52	01:18	09:59	05:42
2011	20:43	01:49	15:24	05:19	34	19:59	01:22	10:45	05:39
2012	14:53	02:22	05:43	04:52	50	19:21	01:30	10:08	05:33
2013	21:13	00:27	13:24	04:46	37	19:34	01:23	10:29	05:28
2014	11:04	-00:10	13:08	-01:10	33	18:43	01:13	10:45	04:48

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	1	Timo Bracht	GER	07:59:01	08:23:54	00:47:33	04:23:14	02:43:15	8
2	2	Nils Frommhold	GER	07:59:48	08:17:04	00:46:17	04:18:22	02:50:08	3
3	27	Clemente Alonso McKernan	ESP	08:08:08	08:25:34	00:46:15	04:28:51	02:48:02	12
4	4	Andrew Starykowicz	USA	08:16:13	08:36:07	00:46:50	04:16:44	03:07:39	(37)
5	6	Markus Fachbach	GER	08:17:27	08:46:38	00:48:01	04:29:43	02:54:44	66
6	8	Andrej Vistica	CRO	08:22:12	08:46:44	00:51:05	04:31:54	02:54:13	67
7	5	Horst Reichel	GER	08:22:52	08:55:19	00:47:40	04:32:57	02:57:15	111
8	20	Per Bittner	GER	08:24:21	08:49:48	00:48:10	04:32:26	02:58:45	86
9	14	Fredrik Croneborg	SWE	08:26:37	08:47:53	00:50:43	04:40:19	02:50:34	77
10	9	Roeland Smits	NED	08:28:11	08:56:46	00:51:21	04:38:06	02:53:44	115
11	80	Johann Ackermann	GER	08:30:08	09:09:54	00:47:16	04:36:52	03:01:00	(173)
12	7	Thomas Hellriegel	GER	08:31:22	09:08:52	00:49:55	04:23:53	03:12:34	(166)
13	24	Stefan Schmid	GER	08:31:35	08:46:59	00:52:07	04:36:46	02:57:42	71
14	79	Casey Munro	AUS	08:33:22	08:56:56	00:45:49	04:30:56	03:11:38	(116)
15	16	Sergio Marques	POR	08:33:26	08:56:09	00:53:09	04:43:23	02:51:54	114
16	10	Christian Brader	GER	08:34:37	08:55:48	00:55:18	04:40:54	02:53:24	113
17	18	Gerrit Schellens	BEL	08:37:03	08:48:25	00:52:00	04:54:41	02:45:22	79
18	47	Gyula Kis	HUN	08:37:51	09:07:13	00:50:15	04:47:05	02:55:31	(154)
19	29	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	08:38:26	08:57:09	00:46:39	04:41:16	03:05:31	117
20	19	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	08:38:27	09:00:00	00:53:59	04:40:36	02:58:53	126
21	12	Scott Defilippis	USA	08:39:12	09:14:42	00:54:15	04:46:54	02:53:03	196
22	11	Michael Wetzel	GER	08:41:42	09:13:38	00:55:00	04:42:37	02:59:05	188
23	44	Dave Rost	NED	08:42:51	09:17:27	00:48:45	04:40:53	03:08:13	(204)
24	36	Gergö Molnar	HUN	08:44:08	09:04:15	00:48:39	04:43:20	03:07:09	143
25	15	Sebastian Bleisteiner	GER	08:45:03	09:14:30	00:51:00	04:45:19	03:03:44	(196)
26	17	Jens Kaiser	GER	08:46:23	09:17:45	00:56:06	04:37:54	03:07:23	(204)
27	69	Marcel Bischof	GER	08:49:08	09:19:43	00:55:03	04:43:56	03:05:09	216
28	25	Christopher Bagg	USA	08:49:28	09:28:28	00:53:13	04:42:08	03:09:06	251
29	42	Niels Brandt-Joergensen	DEN	08:50:37	09:20:42	00:55:59	04:50:43	02:58:55	(223)
30	22	Blake Becker	USA	08:52:12	09:31:47	00:51:32	04:47:24	03:08:16	268
31	26	Andreas Niedrig	GER	08:53:48	09:15:38	00:46:14	04:34:34	03:28:01	198
32	23	Raul Furtado	BRA	08:55:40	09:21:59	00:51:49	04:40:12	03:18:39	230
33	33	Thomas Naasz	NED	09:05:20	09:27:03	00:54:45	04:52:32	03:13:03	248
34	40	Urs Mueller	SWI	09:09:15	09:40:24	00:55:32	04:53:03	03:15:40	(305)
35	74	Dan McGuigan	AUS	09:12:40	09:55:00	01:00:22	04:42:07	03:25:11	(362)
36	48	Kasper Ougaard	DEN	09:16:59	09:58:52	01:01:30	04:50:31	03:19:58	(372)
37	35	Michael Louys	BEL	09:19:55	09:46:04	00:59:54	04:52:20	03:22:41	(322)
38	45	Josef Krivanek	CZE	09:33:59	09:59:15	00:57:24	05:00:15	03:31:19	(374)
39	75	Kaon Cho	KOR	12:29:03	13:11:32	01:00:07	05:02:32	06:21:25	(486)
	30	Olivier Godart	LUX	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	34	Marton Flander		n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	43	Robert Karas		n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	70	Christopher Haas		n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	71	Julian Mutterer	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	73	Henry Beck		n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	78	Toumy Degham	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	616	Christian Jais	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	1164	Carlos Silva		n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	51	Yvonne Van Vlerken	NED	08:52:15	09:13:35	00:56:35	04:44:53	03:05:47	5
2	52	Gina Crawford	NZL	09:00:47	09:23:47	00:50:36	04:59:54	03:05:18	16
3	53	Anja Beranek	GER	09:03:26	09:32:43	00:51:27	04:51:40	03:15:19	(32)
4	56	Diana Riesler	GER	09:03:59	09:32:41	00:56:10	04:48:33	03:14:16	31
5	59	Carrie Lester	AUS	09:23:00	09:37:59	00:53:46	05:06:06	03:18:08	45
6	54	Daniela Saemmler	GER	09:24:01	09:49:19	00:53:36	05:02:11	03:23:14	61
7	58	Natascha Schmitt	GER	09:25:17	10:16:41	00:52:27	05:18:15	03:09:34	(125)
8		Laura Bennett	USA	09:27:43	10:05:55	00:51:23	05:02:17	03:29:03	(105)
9	68	Stefanie Adam	BEL	09:35:41	10:20:33	00:54:41	04:57:05	03:38:55	(136)
10	60	Ana Casares	ESP	09:35:45	10:09:56	01:09:09	05:06:45	03:14:52	(112)
11	61	Verena Walter	GER	09:37:21	10:07:36	00:57:47	05:08:39	03:25:55	(110)
12	64	Vanessa Pereira	POR	10:14:41	10:44:57	01:01:19	05:30:05	03:38:17	168
13	65	Cathleen Knutson	USA	10:20:59	10:49:42	01:05:18	05:33:24	03:37:17	(169)
	63	Simona Krivankova		n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	67	Katja Kern		n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

This year we’ll see a re-match from last year: Timo Bracht ran down Nils Frommhold to finally win in Roth. As long as Andy Starykowicz is fit again after last year’s injury, he will make the race very interesting: He will be trying to build a big lead on the swim and bike (anyone betting on him going sub-4 for the bike?) and then hold on to his lead on the run. There are a few others that can contend for a podium spot.

• Timo Bracht: 36% (2-1)
• Nils Frommhold: 32% (2-1)
• Clemente Alonso McKernan: 19% (4-1)
• Andrew Starykowicz: 5% (19-1)
• Horst Reichel: 3% (31-1)
• Markus Fachbach: 2% (43-1)

Female Race Participants

Yvonne is the clear favorite, she has won here in 2007 and 2008. Gina Crawford another top athlete that is always good for a solid race. Anja Beranek will look for a good long distance race after deciding not to chase a Kona slot this year.

• Yvonne Van Vlerken: 54% (1-1)
• Gina Crawford: 18% (4-1)
• Diana Riesler: 18% (5-1)
• Anja Beranek: 8% (11-1)