Challenge Roth 2014 (July 20th) – Predictions

Update (July 11th): I somehow missed Erik-Simon Strijk in the start list – thanks to Erik-Simon for letting me know. I’ve added him to the table.

With Roth, the biggest of the non-WTC Ironman-distance races is coming up – and what a field they managed to put together!

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	Chris McCormack (AUS)	07:58:45	Belinda Granger (AUS)	09:14:06
2006	Chris McCormack (AUS)	08:00:52	Joanna Lawn (NZL)	09:01:17
2007	Chris McCormack (AUS)	07:54:23	Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED)	08:51:55
2008	Patrick Vernay (NCL)	08:09:34	Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED)	08:45:48
2009	Michael Goehner (GER)	07:55:53	Chrissie Wellington (GBR)	08:31:59
2010	Rasmus Henning (DEN)	07:52:36	Chrissie Wellington (GBR)	08:19:13
2011	Andreas Raelert (GER)	07:41:33	Chrissie Wellington (GBR)	08:18:13
2012	James Cunnama (ZAF)	07:59:59	Rachel Joyce (GBR)	08:45:04
2013	Dirk Bockel (LUX)	07:52:01	Caroline Steffen (SUI)	08:40:35

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Dirk Bockel	LUX	00:46:05	04:15:05	02:48:41	07:52:01
2	James Cunnama	ZAF	00:48:38	04:23:46	02:49:16	08:04:13
3	Timo Bracht	GER	00:48:31	04:32:09	02:44:55	08:08:18

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Caroline Steffen	SUI	00:51:45	04:42:21	03:03:07	08:40:35
2	Yvonne Van Vlerken	NED	00:54:40	04:39:35	03:09:33	08:46:22
3	Julia Gajer	GER	00:51:48	04:56:35	02:59:55	08:51:04

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	07:41:33	Andreas Raelert	2011-07-10
Swim	overall	00:45:57	Pete Jacobs	2009-07-12
Bike	overall	04:11:43	Andreas Raelert	2011-07-10
Run	overall	02:39:43	Rasmus Henning	2010-07-18
Total	female	08:18:13	Chrissie Wellington	2011-07-10
Swim	female	00:47:27	Ute Mueckel	2005-06-24
Bike	female	04:36:33	Chrissie Wellington	2010-07-18
Run	female	02:44:35	Chrissie Wellington	2011-07-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Roth is 19:45. Traditionally, it is one of the fastest courses on the calendar. By all descriptions, the course itself is not „easy“ – there are some steep hills on the bike, but they aren’t too long and followed by long descents that allow power-riders to post fast times. The run is flat and on a crushed surface that is relatively easy on the legs.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Roth

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2005	18:02	01:08	13:32	05:29	9	18:02	01:08	13:32	05:29
2006	12:37	01:17	06:34	03:26	37	15:19	01:13	10:03	04:28
2007	22:56	00:52	10:30	06:52	28	17:52	01:06	10:12	05:16
2008	20:40	01:58	06:46	07:55	38	18:34	01:19	09:20	05:56
2009	26:03	02:04	14:42	05:04	41	20:04	01:28	10:25	05:45
2010	19:15	00:27	07:23	05:16	42	19:56	01:18	09:55	05:40
2011	20:55	01:49	15:23	05:18	34	20:04	01:22	10:41	05:37
2012	16:05	02:22	05:41	04:54	50	19:34	01:30	10:04	05:32
2013	21:16	00:26	13:25	04:46	37	19:45	01:23	10:26	05:27

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	1	Dirk Bockel	LUX	08:02:10	08:20:29	00:46:45	04:33:21	02:56:19	2
2	9	Nils Frommhold	GER	08:03:07	08:21:28	00:46:45	04:30:06	02:53:09	(3)
3	7	Eneko Llanos	ESP	08:03:28	08:21:50	00:47:41	04:36:51	02:51:59	4
4	3	Timo Bracht	GER	08:04:11	08:22:34	00:49:30	04:36:46	02:51:48	5
5	15	Joe Gambles	AUS	08:18:14	08:37:09	00:48:08	04:39:15	03:03:24	31
6	2	James Cunnama	ZAF	08:20:06	08:39:06	00:49:55	04:44:55	03:00:55	40
7	6	Pete Jacobs	AUS	08:20:15	08:39:15	00:47:22	04:43:08	03:03:47	41
8	5	Luke McKenzie	AUS	08:20:56	08:39:57	00:47:38	04:38:08	03:09:23	42
9	4	Markus Fachbach	GER	08:23:32	08:42:39	00:49:48	04:43:09	03:04:05	(50)
10	18	Swen Sundberg	GER	08:31:11	08:50:36	00:52:16	04:45:13	03:08:33	74
11	17	Per Bittner	GER	08:31:41	08:51:07	00:49:57	04:52:46	03:02:02	77
12	11	Andrej Vistica	CRO	08:34:31	08:54:03	00:54:22	04:46:27	03:04:59	96
13	13	Fabian Conrad	GER	08:35:48	08:55:23	00:52:30	04:48:58	03:05:18	104
(14)	10	Erik-Simon Strijk	NED	08:36:09	08:55:45	00:53:00	04:48:47	03:08:07	107
14	23	Joel Jameson	GBR	08:36:52	08:56:30	00:56:47	04:53:45	02:57:56	109
15	20	Ritchie Nicholls	GBR	08:45:58	09:05:56	00:48:57	05:01:30	02:59:24	(155)
16	8	Roeland Smits	NED	08:47:39	09:07:41	00:53:03	04:51:42	03:10:06	(161)
17	22	Joseph Spindler	GER	08:48:47	09:08:52	01:03:43	04:53:25	03:03:34	165
18	28	Michael Wetzel	GER	08:52:35	09:12:49	00:55:50	04:58:05	03:11:57	186
19	26	Andreas Niedrig	GER	08:54:39	09:14:57	00:47:13	04:55:44	03:28:39	191
20	19	Dirk Wijnalda	NED	08:54:49	09:15:08	00:57:23	05:04:00	03:06:55	(192)
21	24	Thomas Naasz	NED	09:07:41	09:28:29	00:54:28	04:58:08	03:17:51	(239)
22	44	Harri Sokk	EST	09:08:59	09:29:50	01:01:04	04:48:32	03:18:55	(247)
23	30	Manuel Wyss	SUI	09:09:02	09:29:53	00:53:03	05:16:43	03:14:30	247
24	31	Nis Lind	DEN	09:26:22	09:47:53	01:00:31	05:05:03	03:24:42	(322)
25	32	Arland Macasieb	PHI	09:56:56	10:19:36	01:03:19	05:27:23	03:44:30	416
	12	Sylvain Sudrie	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	21	Sebastian Bleisteiner	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	42	Bart Candel	NED	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	43	Michael Rünz	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	54	Mirinda Carfrae	AUS	08:50:34	09:10:43	00:54:37	05:16:13	02:59:07	1
2	60	Rachel Joyce	GBR	08:52:21	09:12:34	00:51:01	05:06:09	03:11:41	2
3	51	Caroline Steffen	SUI	08:52:40	09:12:54	00:51:48	05:00:17	03:14:29	3
4	52	Yvonne Van Vlerken	NED	08:53:59	09:14:16	00:57:41	05:01:31	03:08:42	4
5	53	Julia Gajer	GER	09:01:01	09:21:34	00:52:50	05:15:24	03:09:17	7
6	58	Rebekah Keat	AUS	09:05:22	09:26:05	00:52:54	05:12:12	03:15:39	12
7	55	Anja Beranek	GER	09:08:49	09:29:40	00:52:51	05:08:06	03:22:48	20
8	59	Michelle Vesterby	DEN	09:12:39	09:33:38	00:52:35	05:12:25	03:23:29	28
9	57	Daniela Saemmler	GER	09:13:16	09:34:17	00:54:05	05:11:56	03:19:48	32
10	61	Diana Riesler	GER	09:19:13	09:40:27	00:59:17	05:09:14	03:25:03	42
11	62	Heleen Bij De Vaate	NED	09:32:35	09:54:20	01:05:35	05:16:36	03:26:08	76
12	64	Simone Maier	GER	09:33:04	09:54:50	01:04:19	05:22:08	03:19:21	78
13	63	Joyce Wolfe	IRL	09:38:44	10:00:43	01:01:21	05:32:40	03:22:52	94
14	56	Yvette Grice	GBR	09:41:39	10:03:44	00:55:41	05:36:07	03:24:04	96
15	65	Tracy Douglas	AUS	09:50:29	10:12:54	01:06:57	05:22:37	03:23:46	(115)
16	66	Ana Casares	ESP	09:50:56	10:13:22	01:08:56	05:26:09	03:32:18	(115)
17	68	Ann Ciaverella	USA	10:21:14	10:44:50	01:04:17	05:45:52	03:48:49	(152)
	69	Sirlet Viilas	EST	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	67	Lina-kristin Schink	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Dirk Bockel is back to defend his title and has to be considered the pre-race favorite. He is clearly able to focus on key races and deliver good performances. But he faces strong competition from a number of established athletes: Pete Jacobs hasn’t had a great performance since winning Kona 2012, Eneko Llanos who had a great 2013 season and is focusing on Roth and Kona this year, or Timo Bracht who decided to build his 2014 season around Roth. But there are also up-and-coming athletes that would love to build their career by winning this established race: Nils Frommhold who has already won two Ironman races in three starts, James Cunnama who narrowly missed the Kon podium, or Joe Gambles who is just getting started in Ironman racing.

• Dirk Bockel: 41% (1-1)
• Nils Frommhold: 17% (5-1)
• Eneko Llanos: 12% (7-1)
• Pete Jacobs: 12% (8-1)
• James Cunnama: 9% (10-1)
• Timo Bracht: 5% (18-1)
• Luke McKenzie: 3% (38-1)

Female Race Participants

Calling the men’s field „strong“ I have problems coming up with a word to describe the women’s field. Other than Kona, we have not seen Mirinda Carefrae, Racel Joyce, Caroline Steffen and Yvonne Van Vlerken in one race. Add in athletes such as steadily improving Michelle Vesterby (8th in Kona 2013) and Julia Gajer (three consecutive top-3s in Roth with sub-9h finishes) and it gets impossible to predict the race. Joycee is my statistical front runner, mainly because she very rarely has an off-day in a big race.

• Rachel Joyce: 36% (2-1)
• Mirinda Carfrae: 27% (3-1)
• Caroline Steffen: 21% (4-1)
• Yvonne Van Vlerken: 12% (8-1)
• Julia Gajer: 2% (65-1)

Photo Credits: Challenge Roth