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Helvellyn (Sept 6th) – Seedings

As described by John Levison of Tri247, “The Helvellyn Triathlon is one of the sport’s grueling gems where athletes experience the beauty of England’s Lake District and the joy and pain of traversing Mt. Helvellyn. The race begins with a one-mile swim in the calm, crystal clear waters of Lake Ullswater, after which athletes cycle a 38-mile route including the ‘Struggle,’ a 1,500ft climb of the Kirkstone pass, all topped off by nine mile run on the fells of Mt. Helvellyn.”

In recent years, the race did not have a Pro category, but with the lack of races currently happening, the British Pros have teamed up to have a UK-event, attracting quite a strong field of British Pro and other elite athletes. The PTO are supporting this effort and have made a prize purse of $ 15,000 available (more details here and below).

Of course, with very few Pros having raced the course in recent years, it’s next to impossible to predict the actual finishing times that world-class Pro athletes are going to achieve on Sunday. However, the data below can be used as a general indication of who the favorites are and where the strengths and weaknesses of each athlete are likely to be.

Last Race’s TOP 3

Male Results

Rank Name Finish
1 Beau Smith 03:35:20
2 Ben Goodfellow 03:49:53
3 Richard Bull 03:54:23

Female Results

Rank Name Finish
1 Diane Lee 04:30:28
2 Suzie Richards 04:36:39
3 Michelle Willcocks 04:40:07

Course Records

The current course records are

  • Men: 3:27:05 by Alex Lawton (2015)
  • Women: 4:03:36 Pollyane Veazey-French (2012)

With the strong field in this year’s race, both records could be broken!

Prize Money

The prize purse will be distributed in a gender-neutral format:

  • Based on the limited data, for the PTO I have calculated ideal times (performances roughly equivalent to a 70.3 World podium finish) of 3:20:06 for the men and 3:48:09 for the women.
  • The difference of 28:03 will be subtracted from the female “clock times” to arrive at a net time.
  • The first ten Pro athletes based on their net times will receive prize money. (There are some athletes in the “elite field” that don’t have a current Pro license, this includes the “retirees” Lucy Gossage and Will Clark.)
  • Each elite athlete will start on their own, with ten seconds between each athlete. The women will start first, and then there will be a gap of 28 minutes to the men. There will still be the need for some calculations after the finish line, but the order of athletes across the line should be close to the order of net times.

Male Race Participants

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun
1 9 Alistair Brownlee GBR 03:19:13 03:47:40 00:18:07 01:39:20 02:00:57 01:18:16
2 16 George Goodwin GBR 03:28:22 03:59:11 00:19:32 01:44:59 02:08:01 01:20:21
3 19 Will Clarke GBR 03:30:50 04:01:06 00:19:00 01:45:26 02:07:56 01:22:54
4 11 Elliot Smales GBR 03:31:04 04:00:39 00:18:42 01:46:19 02:08:31 01:22:33
5 10 Thomas Davis GBR 03:32:05 04:02:52 00:18:13 01:45:48 02:07:31 01:24:34
6 12 Sam Wade GBR 03:33:45 04:03:46 00:19:11 01:46:25 02:09:06 01:24:39
7 20 Joe Skipper GBR 03:35:55 04:04:42 00:20:54 01:42:00 02:06:24 01:29:31
8 18 Pete Dyson GBR 03:41:44 04:13:10 00:22:03 01:49:34 02:15:07 01:26:37
9 23 Fergus Roberts GBR 03:47:27 04:17:57 00:19:46 01:50:47 02:14:03 01:33:24
8 Jack Hindle GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated
13 Lewis Byram GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated
14 Jack Willis GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated
15 James Scott-Farrington GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated
17 Luke Howard GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated
21 Andrew Woodroffe GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated
22 Brian Fogarty GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated
24 Mitchell Smolen GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated

Female Race Participants

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun
1 3 India Lee GBR 03:52:58 04:25:07 00:20:19 01:55:05 02:18:54 01:34:04
2 5 Lucy Gossage GBR 03:57:48 04:31:33 00:23:36 01:57:04 02:24:10 01:33:38
3 2 Nikki Bartlett GBR 03:57:58 04:30:59 00:23:05 01:56:49 02:23:24 01:34:34
4 1 Lucy Hall GBR 03:59:38 04:33:10 00:18:57 01:55:39 02:18:06 01:41:32
5 4 Tara Grosvenor GBR 04:16:23 04:51:42 00:22:55 02:06:58 02:33:23 01:43:00
6 Joanne Clarke GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated
7 Ruth Astle GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated

Winning Odds

As usual, my calculations and odds are based on Pro races on the middle distance. Therefore Ruth Astle (new Pro who hasn’t raced a professional 70.3 race) and some other athletes coming from shorter distances are unranked but will do their best to mix things up and to make the race more difficult to predict. In addition, most athletes won’t have been able to race for quite some time. Finally, the unique format and required skills (fell running!) make it very hard to come up with solid predictions. It’s going to an interesting race for sure!

Male Race Participants

  • Alistair Brownlee: 82% (1-1)
  • George Goodwin: 10% (9-1)
  • Elliot Smales: 3% (29-1)
  • Will Clarke: 2% (43-1)
  • Thomas Davis: 2% (44-1)

Female Race Participants

  • India Lee: 48% (1-1)
  • Lucy Hall: 19% (4-1)
  • Nikki Bartlett: 18% (4-1)
  • Lucy Gossage: 14% (6-1)
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