IM Cozumel 2011 – Predictions

I’m pretty busy in my day job right now, but Chris Bagg sent me an email asking for my predictions, so I put something together based on the start list on the Cozumel website. With the new IM Pro membership, there are quite a few athletes signing up for a lot of races. When they cancel, the lists are rarely updated accordingly. For example Dirk Bockel was on the list for Arizona, even though he had said weeks before that he wouldn’t start. So I hope this list doesn’t change too much before the start of the race …

Male Participants

Matthias Hecht is the favorite for winning the race:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Mathias Hecht SWI 08:33:56 08:42:07 37
2 Stephan Vuckovic GER 08:37:25 08:45:40 54
3 Swen Sundberg GER 08:37:55 08:46:10 60
4 Christian Ritter GER 08:38:42 08:46:58 65
5 Michael Lovato USA 08:40:03 08:48:20 72
6 Chris McDonald AUS 08:40:13 08:48:30 74
7 Axel Zeebroek BEL 08:41:47 08:50:06 86
8 Oscar Galindez ARG 08:47:03 08:55:27 110
9 Patrick Evoe USA 08:48:41 08:57:06 116
10 Mikel Elgezabal ESP 08:52:31 09:01:00 136
11 Christopher Bagg USA 08:55:47 09:04:19 151
12 Alejandro Santamaria ESP 08:57:04 09:05:37 160
13 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:57:07 09:05:40 161
14 Ian Mikelson USA 08:59:09 09:07:44 174
15 Balazs Csoke HUN 09:00:17 09:08:53 180
16 Michael Wetzel GER 09:01:26 09:10:04 187
17 Horst Reichel GER 09:02:25 09:11:04 193
18 Brandon Marsh USA 09:02:26 09:11:05 194
19 Mike Schifferle SWI 09:03:28 09:12:08 200
20 Patrick Wallimann SWI 09:03:34 09:12:14 201
21 Luiz Francisco Ferreira BRA 09:04:12 09:12:52 207
22 Bruno Clerbout BEL 09:07:57 09:16:41 233
23 Raul Furtado BRA 09:09:30 09:18:15 250
24 Zach Ruble USA 09:09:34 09:18:19 252
25 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 09:09:58 09:18:44 257
26 Tim Snow USA 09:20:02 09:28:57 333
27 Ben Cotter CAN 09:26:02 09:35:03 374
28 Adam O’Meara CAN 09:28:01 09:37:04 385
29 Brendan Halpin USA 09:32:59 09:42:07 418
30 Simon Malo CAN 09:39:28 09:48:42 465
31 Cesar Valera VEN 10:02:21 10:11:57 612
32 Bojan Maric SCG 10:05:19 10:14:58 629
33 Sergio Quezada MEX 10:18:16 10:28:07 694
34 Richard Wygand BRA 10:49:21 10:59:42 778
35 Luca De Paolis ITA n/a unrated n/a

Here are the percentages for winning the race:

  • Mathias Hecht: 28%
  • Michael Lovato: 24%
  • Swen Sundberg: 12%
  • Stephan Vuckovic: 12%
  • Chris McDonald: 8%
  • Axel Zeebroek: 6%
  • Patrick Evoe: 4%
  • Oscar Galindez: 2%

Female Participants

On the women’s side, I’m picking my country woman Sonja Tajsich for winning the race:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Sonja Tajsich GER 09:19:39 09:28:34 9
2 Erika Csomor HUN 09:27:10 09:36:12 24
3 Amanda Stevens USA 09:34:48 09:43:57 42
4 Sara Gross CAN 09:48:52 09:58:15 77
5 Ana Lidia Borba BRA 09:52:02 10:01:28 85
6 Annett Kamenz CAN 09:59:22 10:08:55 109
7 Anne Basso FRA 10:08:48 10:18:30 143
8 Simone Benz SWI 10:14:12 10:23:59 159
9 Terra Castro USA 10:14:20 10:24:07 160
10 Mariana Andrade BRA 10:29:21 10:39:23 198
11 Conny Dauben GER 10:37:40 10:47:50 218
12 Federica Frontini URU 10:40:28 10:50:40 222
13 Amanda Lovato USA 10:58:32 11:09:02 252

There are a few “shaky” candidates on the list (Amanda Stevens just raced in Arizona), but here are the odds for winning:

  • Sonja Tajsich: 50%
  • Erika Csomor: 33%
  • Amanda Stevens: 6%
  • Annett Kamenz: 5%
  • Sara Gross: 4%
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