IM Cozumel 2012 – Predictions

This weekend’s IM Cozumel continues the recent trend of large and strong fields for the post-Kona races. As usual, it was tricky to build a list of participants: I was working off the official list (regardless of how current it is) and added some athletes that have said they will start in Cozumel. On the men’s side we have top-rated athletes such as Dirk Bockel and Timo Bracht, and some future hopefuls such as James Cunnama, while the women’s side features Kona racers Amy Marsh and Michelle Vesterby looking for their next Ironman win. Last week there were a few late withdrawals for Arizona, it remains to be seen if this happens again for Cozumel.

Update: Amy Marsh will not be racing, she withdrew after Kona.

Update 2: I’ve received tweets about some more top racers starting in Cozumel:

  • Mary Beth Ellis (thanks to James Cunnama and Michelle Vesterby and Mary Beth for confirming she’ll start)
  • Sonja Tajsich (again, thanks to Michelle Vesterby)
  • Ivan Rana (thanks to Pablo Fuente)

I’ve added to the list of athletes (with their ratings) and also updated the odds.

Update 3: Ronnie Schildknecht announced on his blog that he won’t start.

Update 4: Yvonne van Vlerken will also start – what can she do only three weeks after winning IM Florida? (Thanks to Michelle Vesterby for pointing out that she was missing in all the published lists, but had committed to racing long ago.)

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Michael Lovato USA 00:48:47 04:19:17 03:01:41 08:23:52
2 Patrick Evoe USA 00:53:02 04:24:09 02:59:23 08:30:36
3 Alejandro Santamaria ESP 00:54:12 04:32:57 02:52:00 08:32:50

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Simone Braendli SWI 00:48:57 04:45:20 03:25:10 09:14:08
2 Sonja Tajsich GER 01:02:32 05:13:08 03:02:54 09:23:15
3 Sophie De Groote BEL 00:54:46 04:57:45 03:18:25 09:26:07

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:15:57 Andy Potts 2010-11-28
Swim overall 00:44:39 Uzziel Valderrabano 2009-11-29
Bike overall 04:19:17 Michael Lovato 2011-11-27
Run overall 02:52:00 Alejandro Santamaria 2011-11-27
Total female 09:07:08 Yvonne Van Vlerken 2010-11-28
Swim female 00:46:39 Bree Wee 2009-11-29
Bike female 04:45:20 Simone Braendli 2011-11-27
Run female 03:02:54 Sonja Tajsich 2011-11-27

Course Rating

Course Rating for IM Cozumel is 09:40.

Race Adjustments for IM Cozumel

Year Adjustment # of Athletes Rating
2009 12:23 27 12:23
2010 10:01 34 11:12
2011 06:36 41 09:40

KPR points and Price Money

IM Cozumel has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total price purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Timo Bracht GER 08:12:21 08:21:20 6
2 Dirk Bockel LUX 08:13:57 08:22:57 7
3 Ronnie Schildknecht SWI 08:20:27 08:29:35 16
4 James Cunnama ZAF 08:28:09 08:37:25 36
5 Eduardo Sturla ARG 08:33:34 08:42:56 52
6 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:34:32 08:43:55 58
7 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:35:02 08:44:25 60
8 Jimmy Johnsen DNK 08:35:25 08:44:49 63
9 Uwe Widmann GER 08:35:55 08:45:19 68
10 Patrick Evoe USA 08:41:14 08:50:44 97
11 Bert Jammaer BEL 08:41:50 08:51:21 101
12 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:42:59 08:52:31 106
13 Sylvain Rota FRA 08:43:26 08:52:59 108
14 Stefan Schmid GER 08:46:44 08:56:20 129
15 Brandon Marsh USA 08:49:42 08:59:22 145
16 Alexander Grigoryev RUS 08:52:59 09:02:42 168
17 Luke Dragstra CAN 08:57:37 09:07:25 195
18 Scott Defilippis USA 08:58:37 09:08:26 209
19 Zach Ruble USA 08:58:40 09:08:29 210
20 Andres Castillo Latorre COL 08:59:41 09:09:31 222
21 Horst Reichel GER 08:59:50 09:09:41 226
22 Nikolaus Wihlidal AUT 09:09:22 09:19:23 287
23 Allan Villanueva 09:10:14 09:20:16 295
24 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:17:50 09:28:00 354
25 Rene Vallant AUT 09:18:37 09:28:48 358
26 Jesse Vondracek USA 09:22:07 09:32:22 383
27 Teemu Kyllonen GBR 09:24:21 09:34:38 401
28 Blake Becker USA 09:33:51 09:44:19 465
29 Logan Franks USA 09:37:50 09:48:22 490
30 Ivan Tejero Vazquez ESP 09:51:38 10:02:25 580
31 Bojan Maric SCG 10:02:22 10:13:21 639
32 Olivier Cardoen BEL n/a unrated n/a
33 Patrick Donovan USA n/a unrated n/a

Also starting:

  • Ivan Rana (ESP) – unrated, but has just won the 70.3 in Lanzarote

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Amy Marsh USA 09:15:41 09:25:49 14
2 Elizabeth Lyles USA 09:19:12 09:29:24 19
3 Michelle Vesterby DNK 09:22:00 09:32:15 25
4 Sophie De Groote BEL 09:22:46 09:33:02 27
5 Kathleen Calkins USA 09:25:33 09:35:52 34
6 Carrie Lester AUS 09:25:42 09:36:01 35
7 Jessie Donavan USA 09:33:35 09:44:03 53
8 Beth Walsh USA 09:35:58 09:46:28 58
9 Michaela Rudolf AUT 09:41:02 09:51:38 75
10 Sara Gross CAN 09:44:02 09:54:41 83
11 Jackie Arendt USA 09:47:01 09:57:43 92
12 Heidi Sessner GER 09:51:06 10:01:53 106
13 Eimear Mullan IRL 09:53:29 10:04:18 116
14 Paolina Allan CAN 09:55:06 10:05:57 122
15 Barbara Tesar AUT 09:56:50 10:07:43 129
16 Stephanie Jones USA 09:58:00 10:08:54 136
17 Francesca Tibaldi ITA 09:58:06 10:09:00 137
18 Jacqui Gordon USA 09:59:19 10:10:15 140
19 Anne Basso FRA 10:10:33 10:21:41 175
20 Stephanie Ossenbrink CAN 10:12:04 10:23:14 181
21 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:13:12 10:24:23 182
22 Annett Kamenz GER 10:14:35 10:25:47 184
23 April Lea Gellatly USA 10:16:18 10:27:32 191
24 Fernanda Keller BRA 10:23:11 10:34:33 203
25 Leslie Lamacchia USA 10:27:11 10:38:37 213
26 Kristin Baker CAN 10:36:15 10:47:51 232
27 Amanda McKenzie AUS 11:00:59 11:13:02 261
28 Saki Kubota JAP 11:13:19 11:25:36 268
29 Amanda Felder Derkacs USA n/a unrated n/a
30 Tenille Hoogland CAN n/a unrated n/a
31 Ayesha Rollinson CAN n/a unrated n/a

Also starting:

  • Mary Beth Ellis (USA), rated 9:14:45
  • Sonja Tajsich (GER), rated 9:22:16
  • Yvonne Van Vlerken (AUT), rated 9:17:11

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Timo Bracht: 40% (1-1)
  • James Cunnama: 34% (2-1)
  • Dirk Bockel: 20% (4-1)
  • Luke McKenzie: 2% (48-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Mary Beth Ellis: 42% (1-1)
  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 33% (2-1)
  • Sonja Tajsich: 19% (4-1)
  • Carrie Lester: 2% (50-1)
  • Elizabeth Lyles: 2% (52-1)
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