Ironman Cozumel 2013 (Dec 1st) – Predictions

Update (Nov 29th): A few days before the race, there are a few athletes that are still on the list but won’t race. I’ve crossed out those that I’m aware of: Thomas Gerlach (said on his blog that he’ll visit family over Thanksgiving), Eimear Mullan (replied to me on Twitter: “Please shoot me if I race Cozumel!”) and Matthias Hecht (also on Twitter: “I will be back at IM Melbourne. Need a bit more time.”). I’m sure there will be a few more changes, please let me know if you have any newer information.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Ivan Rana ESP 00:50:27 04:37:16 02:44:05 08:15:07
2 Bas Diederen NED 00:50:17 04:37:39 02:51:57 08:22:55
3 Bert Jammaer BEL 00:52:08 04:36:04 02:53:18 08:24:51

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Mary Beth Ellis USA 00:54:36 05:05:26 03:11:17 09:15:38
2 Sophie De Groote BEL 01:04:59 04:57:01 03:09:47 09:15:45
3 Sonja Tajsich GER 01:13:55 05:00:15 03:02:40 09:21:30

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:15:07 Ivan Rana 2012-11-25
Swim overall 00:44:39 Uzziel Valderrabano 2009-11-29
Swim overall 00:44:18 Andres Castillo 2009-11-29
Bike overall 04:19:17 Michael Lovato 2011-11-27
Run overall 02:44:05 Ivan Rana 2012-11-25
Total female 09:07:08 Yvonne Van Vlerken 2010-11-28
Swim female 00:46:39 Bree Wee 2009-11-29
Bike female 04:45:20 Simone Braendli 2011-11-27
Run female 03:02:39 Beth Gerdes 2012-11-25

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Cozumel is 07:45.

Race Adjustments for IM Cozumel

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2009 07:45 06:32 -01:57 -01:39 26 07:45 06:32 -01:57 -01:39
2010 08:07 00:59 12:55 -03:32 30 07:56 03:45 05:29 -02:36
2011 09:29 01:52 12:33 02:39 40 08:27 03:07 07:50 -00:51
2012 05:39 -04:26 06:58 00:35 55 07:45 01:14 07:37 -00:29

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Cozumel has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 23 Nils Frommhold GER 08:04:09 08:11:12 00:46:38 04:37:00 02:50:32 (1)
2 1 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:13:22 08:20:33 00:47:42 04:36:51 02:52:25 2
3 75 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 08:16:10 08:23:23 00:48:41 04:31:55 02:59:17 6
4 3 Tyler Butterfield BMU 08:20:52 08:28:10 00:49:18 04:41:23 02:57:38 14
5 12 Michael Weiss AUT 08:22:53 08:30:12 00:54:54 04:30:14 02:59:16 18
6 41 Mathias Hecht SUI 08:33:00 08:40:28 00:47:40 04:42:34 03:06:30 42
7 31 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:36:00 08:43:31 00:48:26 04:49:05 03:03:03 55
8 19 Ritchie Nicholls GBR 08:37:23 08:44:55 00:48:28 04:58:18 02:57:29 63
9 4 Justin Daerr USA 08:39:15 08:46:49 00:53:55 04:46:52 03:03:08 68
10 17 Marek Jaskolka POL 08:39:29 08:47:03 00:47:24 04:54:21 03:02:22 70
11 21 Todd Skipworth AUS 08:44:56 08:52:35 00:45:53 04:40:02 03:25:27 88
12 13 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:45:29 08:53:08 00:54:42 04:51:32 03:01:54 90
13 33 Ezequiel Morales ARG 08:47:32 08:55:13 00:52:37 04:53:34 02:55:37 98
14 2 Bruno Clerbout BEL 08:48:52 08:56:34 00:51:02 04:58:54 03:01:46 108
15 39 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:49:50 08:57:33 00:54:54 04:44:50 03:14:40 112
16 22 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:49:56 08:57:39 00:53:40 04:46:22 03:15:04 114
17 14 AJ Baucco USA 08:51:04 08:58:48 00:52:37 04:50:48 03:12:28 123
18 32 Thiago Vinhal BRA 08:52:09 08:59:54 00:48:46 05:06:51 03:01:38 126
19 38 Christian Brader GER 08:52:29 09:00:14 00:56:26 04:52:48 03:10:29 128
20 76 Balazs Csoke HUN 08:53:28 09:01:14 00:48:08 04:51:42 03:18:36 133
21 11 Andres Castillo COL 08:55:36 09:03:24 00:47:41 04:52:38 03:20:44 147
22 74 Dan Mcintosh USA 08:58:38 09:06:29 00:52:02 04:52:51 03:13:16 154
23 5 Patrick Evoe USA 09:00:12 09:08:04 00:55:34 04:46:27 03:09:06 157
24 6 Leon Griffin AUS 09:01:02 09:08:55 00:53:18 04:53:17 03:32:17 161
25 25 Carlos Lopez diaz ESP 09:01:16 09:09:09 00:47:01 04:50:31 03:27:40 162
26 7 Sebastian Pedraza ITA 09:02:54 09:10:48 00:52:53 04:49:18 03:21:59 166
27 35 Allan Villanueva MEX 09:09:53 09:17:53 00:53:27 04:57:02 03:22:03 189
28 16 Olivier Cardoen BEL 09:10:21 09:18:22 00:54:56 04:52:21 03:24:36 189
29 43 Fabio Carvalho BRA 09:10:29 09:18:30 00:52:49 05:23:04 03:11:53 190
30 34 Adam O’Meara CAN 09:14:49 09:22:54 00:54:31 05:08:36 03:13:52 205
31 18 Craig Twigg GBR 09:27:07 09:35:22 00:52:13 04:55:50 03:41:54 243
32 27 Jose Valero ESP 09:30:12 09:38:30 01:00:48 05:07:00 03:27:13 257
33 29 Jozef Vrabel SVK 09:33:49 09:42:10 00:56:39 05:08:37 03:31:54 271
34 9 Logan Franks USA 09:38:07 09:46:32 01:02:10 05:08:08 03:26:18 287
35 28 Ivan Tejero Vazquez ESP 09:42:56 09:51:25 00:49:35 05:17:02 03:41:42 296
36 20 Simon Malo CAN 09:43:39 09:52:09 00:56:48 05:03:57 03:41:38 302
37 24 Daniel Soper USA 09:44:27 09:52:58 01:02:12 05:02:42 03:25:14 304
38 42 Aubrey Aldy USA 09:47:30 09:56:03 01:04:36 05:28:09 03:12:15 316
39 15 Peter Kotland USA 09:51:33 10:00:10 00:57:38 05:17:36 03:36:40 326
40 36 Sergio Quezada MEX 09:58:18 10:07:01 00:51:43 05:18:41 03:49:12 341
41 37 Reinaldo Oliveira BRA 10:13:30 10:22:26 01:00:00 05:21:01 03:52:09 381
42 8 Kevin Danahy USA 10:47:55 10:57:21 00:59:57 05:59:09 03:44:30 401
30 James Haycraft USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
10 Gabriel Raff ARG n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
26 Eduardo Crooke Gonzalez ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
40 Peru Alfaro ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 44 Rachel Joyce GBR 09:05:22 09:13:18 00:51:02 05:06:09 03:12:58 3
2 72 Celine Schaerer SUI 09:09:59 09:17:59 00:47:39 05:09:44 03:19:47 7
3 45 Jessie Donavan USA 09:25:03 09:33:17 01:07:21 05:07:15 03:15:21 25
4 70 Tine Deckers BEL 09:25:12 09:33:26 00:57:39 05:08:39 03:21:06 26
5 48 Amanda Stevens USA 09:28:51 09:37:08 00:49:05 05:16:55 03:27:32 31
6 73 Ashley Clifford USA 09:29:09 09:37:26 00:53:53 05:29:26 03:12:25 33
7 47 Asa Lundstroem SWE 09:32:15 09:40:35 00:59:59 05:15:36 03:21:12 44
8 69 Eimear Mullan IRL 09:39:09 09:47:35 01:00:47 05:25:58 03:13:56 55
9 53 Edith Niederfriniger ITA 09:39:22 09:47:48 00:54:37 05:26:35 03:21:09 56
10 65 Sara Gross CAN 09:40:10 09:48:37 00:55:39 05:33:18 03:18:27 56
11 50 Bree Wee USA 09:40:35 09:49:02 00:53:56 05:17:43 03:30:52 57
12 66 Keiko Tanaka JAP 09:40:45 09:49:12 00:54:17 05:27:11 03:22:37 58
13 49 Jackie Arendt USA 09:43:31 09:52:01 00:55:17 05:28:24 03:20:56 62
14 67 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:45:22 09:53:53 00:54:29 05:24:24 03:24:46 65
15 59 Malaika Homo USA 09:45:55 09:54:27 00:53:07 05:22:31 03:35:28 69
16 51 Svetlana Blazevic SCG 10:00:44 10:09:29 00:52:20 05:31:22 03:43:12 95
17 52 Anne Basso FRA 10:01:49 10:10:35 00:58:05 05:30:34 03:41:43 98
18 57 Monique Grossrieder SUI 10:03:46 10:12:33 01:04:44 05:34:16 03:27:28 104
19 64 Saleta Castro ESP 10:03:49 10:12:37 00:55:44 05:29:49 03:41:15 105
20 54 Steffi Steinberg GER 10:16:21 10:25:19 01:08:26 05:36:28 03:35:02 125
21 58 Tami Ritchie USA 10:35:10 10:44:25 00:52:02 06:06:59 03:44:40 134
22 61 Arrate Gonzalez ESP 10:44:20 10:53:43 01:08:18 05:56:04 03:46:16 137
23 55 Jennifer Lentzke CAN 11:04:06 11:13:46 01:12:39 05:45:22 03:46:56 142
24 60 Kristina Wiegand GER 11:31:54 11:41:58 01:07:24 06:21:38 04:16:31 144
62 Amy Javens USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
71 Astrid Ganzow GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
68 Lotty Harari PAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
56 Julie Van Veelen CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
63 Jocelyn Cornman USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The men’s field is a nice mix of „older established” athletes and „younger up-and-coming“ athletes, either coming off their Kona build (Eneko, Tyler) or gearing up again after a forced break (Marino, Nils and Mathias who were injured, Michael Weiss who served a doping ban). Nils Frommhold is the best rated athlete but has just one result (last year’s win at IM Arizona), therefore Eneko and Marino have to be considered the clear favorites:

  • Eneko Llanos: 31% (2-1)
  • Marino Vanhoenacker: 30% (2-1)
  • Nils Frommhold: 17% (5-1)
  • Tyler Butterfield: 9% (10-1)
  • Michael Weiss: 8% (12-1)
  • Mathias Hecht: 2% (45-1)

Female Race Participants

On the female side, Rachel Joyce has decided to race one more IM after Kona and even if she can’t be at the top of her game is the clear favorite. Behind her are a number of other athletes who’d love to snatch the win from her. The race dynamics could be very interesting, the two super-swimmers Amanda Stevens (coming off a DNF in Arizona) and Celine Schaerer (just one IM result, a 2nd place in Switzerland, but with a focused build for Cozumel) could break up the field very early.

  • Rachel Joyce: 59% (1-1)
  • Tine Deckers: 8% (11-1)
  • Amanda Stevens: 7% (13-1)
  • Ashley Clifford: 7% (14-1)
  • Celine Schaerer: 6% (16-1)
  • Jessie Donavan: 5% (18-1)
  • Asa Lundstroem: 3% (29-1)
  • Sara Gross: 2% (43-1)

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  1. Posts 17-30 nov | - December 1, 2013

    […]  Predicciones IM COzumel http://www.trirating.com/ironman-cozumel-2013-dec-1st-predictions/ 1 […]

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