IM Lake Placid 2011 – Predictions (Main Post)

I almost missed the Lake Placid Race this weekend .. so I’m a little late, but here are my predictions for the race. As usual, you can find additional information on the participants in the details post.

Previous Results

Lake Placid is one of the slower courses on the calendar with a course rating of –1:54, so it is even a bit slower than Hawaii. Last year’s race was won by Ben Hoffman in 8:39 and Amy Marsh in 9:27.

Male Participants

Ben Hoffman is back to defend his title, but he is only the fifth rated athlete:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Eduardo Sturla ARG 08:41:30 08:39:40 23
2 Jason Shortis AUS 08:52:22 08:50:30 73
3 Luke Bell AUS 08:53:13 08:51:21 78
4 Torsten Abel GER 08:53:18 08:51:26 80
5 Ben Hoffman USA 08:55:22 08:53:29 88
6 TJ Tollakson USA 08:56:45 08:54:52 90
7 Mike Neill CAN 08:59:22 08:57:29 108
8 Mike Caiazzo USA 09:01:57 09:00:03 116
9 Ian Mikelson USA 09:13:37 09:11:41 176
10 Christopher Bagg USA 09:16:42 09:14:45 198
11 Raul Furtado BRA 09:20:40 09:18:42 236
12 Matthew Russell USA 09:24:02 09:22:03 260
13 Tim Snow USA 09:31:44 09:29:44 306
14 Logan Franks USA 09:36:42 09:34:41 336
15 Kyle Pawlaczyk USA 09:43:22 09:41:19 390
16 John Hirsch USA 09:47:24 09:45:20 414
17 Raymond Botelho USA 10:01:42 09:59:35 503
18 Arland Macasieb PHL 10:21:59 10:19:48 621
19 Sergio Quezada MEX 10:28:12 10:26:00 652
20 Tyler Lord CAN 10:41:16 10:39:01 691
21 Ryan Grant CAN 11:23:51 11:21:27 770
22 Ryan Cain CAN n/a unrated n/a
23 Holden Cameau USA n/a unrated n/a
24 Ryan Kelly USA n/a unrated n/a

There are six athletes almost on the same level – it looks as if it is going to be a very close race on Sunday!

Female Participants

On the female side, Linsey Corbin was on the start list for some time, but she still appears to be injured. The new front-runner is Heather Wurtele:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Heather Wurtele CAN 09:36:53 09:34:52 17
2 Tine Deckers BEL 09:42:11 09:40:09 28
3 Tyler Stewart USA 09:42:18 09:40:15 30
4 Jackie Arendt USA 10:10:53 10:08:44 102
5 Jacqui Gordon USA 10:13:13 10:11:04 111
6 Marie Danais CAN 10:26:42 10:24:30 157
7 Miranda Alldritt CAN 10:53:48 10:51:30 215
8 Amber Ferreira USA 11:40:57 11:38:30 265

Tine Deckers is another solid racer, and I’m sure that Tyler Stewart will be out near the front at least during the bike leg.

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