IM New Zealand 2011 – Analyzing the Results

This Saturday, Cameron Brown won IM New Zealand for an amazing 10th time. The women’s race was an unexpected win by Sam Warriner.

image (Photos from news article at Ironman website.)

Here is a closer look at the results.

Conditions

The conditions on race day sounded really bad – there was a lot of rain, probably also pretty cold weather. While these horrible sounding conditions are sometimes actually quite good for fast racing, this was not the case for New Zealand:

  • Course Rating prior to race: 18:39
  • Adjustment for 2011 race: 7:06

This means that New Zealand is usually about a quarter hour faster than IM Hawaii (which has a course rating of 2:50), but this year was about 11:30 minutes slower than usual. This is pretty much in line with the horrible race conditions.

Men’s Results

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Cameron Brown NZL 08:31:07 08:29:55
2 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 08:41:54 08:34:29
3 Mathias Hecht SWI 08:45:36 08:39:17
4 Keegan Williams NZL 08:49:34 08:47:01
5 Scott Curry CAN 08:50:44 09:32:03
6 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:58:30 09:00:44
7 Tuukka Miettinen FIN 09:12:16 09:20:32
8 Gavin Scott NZL 09:15:10 n/a
9 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:25:39 09:15:47
10 James Bowstead NZL 09:39:38 09:42:59
11 Brent Foster NZL 09:46:45 09:33:27
12 Scott McGregor NZL 09:52:32 n/a
13 Kerry Weeks NZL 10:04:24 n/a
14 Rich Munro AUS 10:53:20 09:33:45

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions.

Among the top athletes, Cameron was the one that was least affected by the conditions and landed a really convincing win. Petr Vabrousek was also even better than his expected time, but was passed by Scott Curry who really improved on his prior results.

Women’s Results

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Samantha Warriner NZL 09:28:24 n/a
2 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 09:31:33 09:00:22
3 Joanna Lawn NZL 09:31:53 09:28:29
4 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:40:01 10:06:56
5 Belinda Harper NZL 09:40:33 n/a
6 Kirsten Molloy AUS 09:49:02 n/a
7 Michelle Mitchell AUS 09:50:04 n/a
8 Renee Lane AUS 10:01:59 n/a
9 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:16:48 10:19:06
10 Jo Carrel NZL 10:54:31 10:50:28

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions.

Previously unrated Sam Warriner pulled off a surprise win. Her first rated race would put her into a Top10 spot in the rankings (but I require a minimum of two rated races). (I think I read somewhere that she has done a previous IM-distance race. Does anyone know where? Please let me know in the comments.)

Top rated Mirinda Carfrae had two flats on the bike, and she just edged out Jo Lawn. Kate Bevilaqua and the the other previously unrated women also performed well, posting solid times and provided some close racing.

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