IM New Zealand 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

As always, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

Previous Results

New Zealand is a medium fast course with a course rating of 5:16. Conditions in the last years were pretty consistent, but last year had some cold, wet conditions that led to a slower race (adjustment of 1:35). 2011  winners were Cameron Brown in 8:31:07 (for the tenth time – beating Torenzo Bozzone by more than 10 minutes) and Sam Warriner in 9:28:24 (in a much closer race with Mirinda Carfrae (9:31:33) and Joanna Lawn (9:31:53)).

Male Participants

All discussion about New Zealand will focus on the question if this this going to be the year that Cam Brown’s winning streak is going to come to an end. He certainly faces some strong competition, but I see quite a few question marks. Based on paper Marino Vanhoenacker is the clear favorite. But his last IM was Austria in July 2011, and  he had a DNF in Kona. Last year he also had a DNF is his season’s first IM start (in South Africa), so it remains to be seen if he’s on form. The other New Zealand contender Terenzo Bozzone had to sit out Hawaii for an Achilles tendon operation, but word is that he’s recovered well and he’s raring to go. Then there is Aaron Farlow who has just won Challenge Wanaka and will certainly look for another long distance win. It’ll also be interesting to see how IM rookie Timothy Reed is going to do. Quite a field!

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 08:14:36 08:19:28 4
2 Cameron Brown NZL 08:27:14 08:32:13 14
3 Marko Albert EST 08:30:21 08:35:22 23
4 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 08:33:52 08:38:55 28
5 Aaron Farlow AUS 08:37:43 08:42:49 40
6 Torsten Abel GER 08:41:14 08:46:22 61
7 Keegan Williams NZL 08:46:50 08:52:01 94
8 Simon Billeau FRA 08:48:10 08:53:22 99
9 Jamie Whyte NZL 08:49:22 08:54:35 107
10 Stefan Schmid GER 08:55:44 09:01:00 141
11 Guy Crawford AUS 09:06:30 09:11:53 210
12 Simon Cochrane NZL 09:13:02 09:18:28 266
13 Romain Guillaume FRA 09:20:39 09:26:10 327
14 James Bowstead NZL 09:31:46 09:37:24 403
15 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:40:04 09:45:46 466
16 Daiki Masuda JPN 09:59:38 10:05:32 593
17 James Cotter USA 10:01:28 10:07:23 608
18 Timothy Reed AUS n/a unrated n/a
19 Greg Close USA n/a unrated n/a
20 Shanon Stallard NZL n/a unrated n/a
21 Yu Shinozaki JPN n/a unrated n/a
22 Sean Donnelly GER n/a unrated n/a

Here’s a look at the winning odds – as noted above Marino is the clear “paper favorite”:

  • Marino Vanhoenacker: 66%
  • Cameron Brown: 20%
  • Terenzo Bozzone: 4%
  • Aaron Farlow: 4%

Female Participants

Cam Brown has been the dominating athlete on the men’s side, his female counterpart is Jo Lawn. She’s still the best ranked athlete in the field:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Joanna Lawn NZL 09:31:22 09:36:59 24
2 Gina Crawford NZL 09:32:29 09:38:07 30
3 Meredith Kessler USA 09:32:37 09:38:15 32
4 Jessica Jacobs USA 09:41:42 09:47:25 51
5 Candice Hammond NZL 09:47:15 09:53:02 67
6 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:51:43 09:57:32 77
7 Belinda Harper NZL 10:04:33 10:10:30 121
8 Rachael Paxton AUS n/a unrated n/a

However, the ratings are so close that the race is too hard to predict, as evidenced by a  look at the winning odds:

  • Gina Crawford: 23%
  • Jessica Jacobs: 23%
  • Meredith Kessler: 22%
  • Joanna Lawn: 21%
  • Belinda Harper: 5%
  • Kate Bevilaqua: 5%

I can’t remember ever seeing a four way tie for winning chances. I’m looking forward to some interesting racing!

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