Ironman Mont Tremblant 2015 (Aug 16th) – Predictions

A number of these athletes are also on the start list for Timberman on the same day, so there’s going to be a number of changes to these lists.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2012	Romain Guillaume (FRA)	08:40:48	Jessie Donavan (USA)	09:30:46
2013	Luke Bell (AUS)	08:26:06	Mary Beth Ellis (USA)	09:07:56
2014	TJ Tollakson (USA)	08:16:17	Sara Gross (CAN)	09:40:26

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	TJ Tollakson	USA	00:49:43	04:26:55	02:54:21	08:16:17
2	Daniel Halksworth	GBR	00:49:37	04:43:04	02:57:38	08:35:15
3	Andreas Raelert	GER	00:49:38	04:34:38	03:08:59	08:38:31

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Sara Gross	CAN	00:58:42	05:28:14	03:07:33	09:40:26
2	Amber Ferreira	USA	00:58:40	05:19:58	03:18:33	09:43:46
3	Beth Shutt	USA	01:03:21	05:21:16	03:15:12	09:46:45

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:16:17	TJ Tollakson	2014-08-17
Swim	overall	00:47:45	Brandon Marsh	2013-08-18
Bike	overall	04:26:55	TJ Tollakson	2014-08-17
Run	overall	02:52:20	Stefan Schmid	2013-08-18
Total	female	09:07:56	Mary Beth Ellis	2013-08-18
Swim	female	00:49:22	Haley Chura	2013-08-18
Bike	female	04:58:18	Mary Beth Ellis	2013-08-18
Run	female	03:03:45	Kim Schwabenbauer	2013-08-18

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Mont Tremblant is 07:08.

Race Adjustments for IM Mont Tremblant

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2012	09:41	-01:09	05:55	04:40	12	09:41	-01:09	05:55	04:40
2013	04:17	-00:35	03:13	04:09	32	06:59	-00:52	04:34	04:24
2014	07:25	-01:36	02:08	05:11	14	07:08	-01:07	03:46	04:40

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Mont Tremblant is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 100.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	3	Jordan Rapp	USA	08:19:12	08:31:06	00:52:51	04:26:52	02:54:30	21
2	1	Viktor Zyemtsev	USA	08:30:16	08:35:16	00:52:12	04:42:54	02:50:10	35
3	2	Lionel Sanders	CAN	08:31:13	08:48:29	00:56:51	04:25:09	03:04:14	(85)
4	5	Justin Daerr	USA	08:34:09	08:42:53	00:54:10	04:41:26	02:53:33	60
5	4	Paul Ambrose	GBR	08:37:11	08:49:44	00:50:14	04:37:22	03:04:35	89
6	9	Trevor Delsaut	FRA	08:39:56	08:47:14	00:54:16	04:46:35	02:54:05	77
7	6	Matthew Russell	USA	08:40:43	08:51:08	00:58:40	04:40:50	02:56:12	94
8	24	Eric Limkemann	USA	08:40:59	08:58:33	00:50:25	04:38:26	03:07:08	(124)
9	21	Stephen Kilshaw	CAN	08:44:08	09:14:17	00:54:11	04:46:30	02:58:26	195
10	8	Christophe Bastie	FRA	08:50:19	08:54:15	00:55:21	04:40:33	03:09:25	107
11	10	Thomas Gerlach	USA	08:53:02	09:08:04	00:55:37	04:43:09	03:09:16	161
12	20	Chad Holderbaum	USA	08:57:08	09:24:51	00:55:33	04:49:08	03:07:26	244
13	13	James Chesson	USA	09:00:51	09:26:45	00:57:39	04:52:32	03:05:41	(249)
14	19	Nigel Gray	CAN	09:04:51	09:15:46	00:55:42	04:48:04	03:16:05	(203)
15	25	Jim Lubinski	USA	09:12:10	09:39:59	01:02:39	05:00:52	03:03:39	302
16	27	Brendan Naef	CAN	09:13:06	09:35:03	00:58:56	05:00:36	03:08:34	284
17	28	Patrick Wheeler	USA	09:15:18	09:30:36	00:57:32	05:06:03	03:06:43	260
18	26	Douglas MacLean	USA	09:16:05	09:26:20	00:59:03	05:03:23	03:08:39	246
19	23	Peter Kotland	CZE	09:52:26	10:03:25	01:00:10	05:10:14	03:37:02	382
	12	Patrice Brisindi	CAN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	14	Brian Fleischmann	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	15	Jason Frank	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	17	Pierre-Yves Gigou	CAN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	18	Dylan Gleeson	CAN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	22	Adam Kosmicki	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Lionel Sanders and Viktor Zyemtsev have already secured their Kona slots in July. In addition to them, there is a number of athletes looking to qualify in August:

• Paul Ambrose (3.095 but already 5 results – might be okay with a Top5, safe with a Top3 result)
• Matthew Russell (2.540 but 5 results), Jordan Rapp (2.180), Trevor Delsaut (2.065) Justin Daerr (1.840) – they probably need to win for a slot

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	36	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	09:11:22	09:17:15	00:52:07	05:01:08	03:13:08	9
2	38	Liz Blatchford	AUS	09:12:45	09:17:16	00:51:55	05:09:51	03:05:59	10
3	41	Elizabeth Lyles	USA	09:17:48	09:29:53	00:58:15	05:12:08	03:02:25	24
4	40	Rebekah Keat	AUS	09:18:31	09:24:59	00:54:40	05:08:35	03:10:17	(20)
5	42	Sarah Piampiano	USA	09:24:57	09:37:19	01:02:29	05:07:22	03:10:06	44
6	50	Carrie Lester	AUS	09:24:59	09:34:13	00:55:49	05:08:13	03:15:58	34
7	54	Lisa Roberts	USA	09:28:41	09:34:29	01:05:54	05:14:11	03:03:35	37
8	37	Jessie Donavan	USA	09:33:50	09:39:52	01:08:02	05:05:28	03:15:20	47
9	35	Sara Gross	CAN	09:33:56	09:53:52	00:57:24	05:21:37	03:09:54	75
10	45	Amber Ferreira	USA	09:38:55	09:49:34	00:57:27	05:17:00	03:19:29	66
11	58	Laura Siddall	GBR	09:38:59	09:58:31	00:59:41	05:12:15	03:22:04	84
12	61	Karen Thibodeau	CAN	09:42:25	09:59:46	00:55:45	05:24:27	03:17:13	88
13	39	Jackie Hering	USA	09:46:32	09:56:18	00:56:34	05:25:15	03:19:43	80
14	43	Kaitlin Anelauskas	USA	09:51:06	10:17:10	00:55:11	05:43:07	03:07:49	(129)
15	44	Anne Basso	FRA	10:01:10	10:16:01	01:00:21	05:29:07	03:26:42	125
16	49	Heather Leiggi	USA	10:03:08	10:18:55	01:01:29	05:29:40	03:26:59	132
17	46	Jacqui Gordon	USA	10:06:05	10:19:16	01:01:56	05:24:12	03:34:58	135
18	55	Molly Roohi	USA	10:07:17	10:16:44	01:06:20	05:29:26	03:26:31	127
19	47	Caroline Gregory	USA	10:07:58	10:23:16	00:57:00	05:40:40	03:25:17	149
20	53	Tami Ritchie	USA	10:10:28	10:35:04	00:53:41	05:40:50	03:30:58	165
21	56	Maggie Rusch	USA	10:28:06	10:49:18	01:04:39	05:35:45	03:42:41	(174)
22	57	Robin Sandos	USA	10:50:09	11:12:05	01:00:48	05:42:51	04:01:29	(181)
23	51	Caroline Martineau	CAN	11:55:14	12:19:22	01:09:10	06:05:34	04:35:29	(183)
	48	Carly Johann	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	52	Carrie McCoy	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	59	Caroline St-Pierre	CAN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	60	Kathryn Thomas	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

With Mary Beth Ellis, Liz Blatchford and Liz Lyles the top three seeded are already safe for a Kona slot. A few others might still make it in August with a good result, but each of them already has five results:

• Sarah Piampiano (4.410 points, probably okay with a Top 5)
• Jessie Donavan (2.945), Jackie Hering (2.500) – they probably need a win for a slot

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Based on the previous results, Jordan Rapp is the clear favorite to win Mont Tremblant. He has taken a long time after his DNF in Texas to be in peak shape. Viktor has just won IM Canada in Whistler, he might be a DNF or at least a little tired. Paul Ambrose (DNF), Justin Daerr (3rd) and Matthew Russell (7th) were also racing in Canada:

• Jordan Rapp: 50% (1-1)
• Viktor Zyemtsev: 22% (4-1)
• Paul Ambrose: 13% (7-1)
• Justin Daerr: 9% (11-1)
• Matthew Russell: 2% (46-1)
• Trevor Delsaut: 2% (59-1)

Female Race Participants

With Mary Beth Ellis, Liz Blatchford and Liz Lyles there are three strong Kona contenders looking for their next Ironman win before racing in Kona. Carrie Lester is coming off a second place at Challenge Roth and Jessie Donavan was 6th in Canada. Sara Gross and Rebekah Keat are making a comeback after a long break from racing:

• Mary Beth Ellis: 34% (2-1)
• Liz Blatchford: 31% (2-1)
• Elizabeth Lyles: 11% (8-1)
• Carrie Lester: 9% (10-1)
• Sara Gross: 6% (16-1)
• Rebekah Keat: 5% (19-1)
• Jessie Donavan: 2% (63-1)