Ironman Mont Tremblant (Aug 21st) – Predictions

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2012	Romain Guillaume (FRA)	08:40:48	Jessie Donavan (USA)	09:30:46
2013	Luke Bell (AUS)	08:26:06	Mary Beth Ellis (USA)	09:07:56
2014	TJ Tollakson (USA)	08:16:17	Sara Gross (CAN)	09:40:26
2015	Jordan Rapp (USA)	08:17:37	Mary Beth Ellis (USA)	09:09:05

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Jordan Rapp	USA	00:51:33	04:25:01	02:55:53	08:17:37
2	Justin Daerr	USA	00:51:39	04:41:50	02:57:41	08:36:12
3	Paul Ambrose	AUS	00:50:56	04:37:06	03:04:26	08:38:12

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	00:50:22	04:53:21	03:20:02	09:09:05
2	Liz Blatchford	AUS	00:52:03	05:01:15	03:10:56	09:09:55
3	Lisa Roberts	USA	01:04:30	05:02:47	03:00:37	09:13:45

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:16:17	TJ Tollakson	2014-08-17
Swim	overall	00:47:45	Brandon Marsh	2013-08-18
Bike	overall	04:25:01	Jordan Rapp	2015-08-16
Run	overall	02:52:20	Stefan Schmid	2013-08-18
Total	female	09:07:56	Mary Beth Ellis	2013-08-18
Swim	female	00:49:22	Haley Chura	2013-08-18
Bike	female	04:53:21	Mary Beth Ellis	2015-08-16
Run	female	03:00:37	Lisa Roberts	2015-08-16

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Mont Tremblant is 07:10.

Race Adjustments for IM Mont Tremblant

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2012	09:58	-01:07	06:23	04:34	13	09:58	-01:07	06:23	04:34
2013	04:48	-00:33	03:38	03:49	36	07:23	-00:50	05:00	04:12
2014	07:49	-01:34	02:33	05:06	16 of 24	07:31	-01:04	04:11	04:30
2015	06:04	00:04	07:17	01:14	35 of 41	07:10	-00:47	04:58	03:41

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Mont Tremblant is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 100.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	1	Jordan Rapp	USA	08:22:34	08:29:37	00:53:05	04:30:12	02:54:17	77% +8% -15% (19)	21
2	8	Callum Millward	NZL	08:22:51	08:31:20	00:49:13	04:37:55	02:50:43	53% +0% -47% (5)	(26)
3	7	Paul Matthews	AUS	08:26:22	08:31:09	00:47:48	04:37:06	02:56:29	35% +0% -65% (9)	24
4	6	Andrew Starykowicz	USA	08:28:27	08:32:59	00:49:56	04:20:57	03:12:34	60% +0% -40% (7)	31
5	3	Matthew Russell	USA	08:30:28	08:46:02	00:57:42	04:35:45	02:52:01	52% +33% -15% (37)	79
6	9	Victor Del Corral	ESP	08:31:00	08:39:51	00:56:29	04:39:51	02:49:40	59% +0% -41% (14)	54
7	2	Romain Guillaume	FRA	08:31:15	08:49:26	00:49:12	04:33:48	03:03:16	52% +18% -30% (28)	89
8	24	Eric Limkemann	USA	08:35:03	08:43:42	00:50:25	04:37:01	03:02:36	50% +32% -18% (4)	(66)
9	5	Paul Ambrose	AUS	08:35:26	09:00:17	00:50:33	04:36:38	03:03:15	41% +4% -56% (20)	125
10	4	Chris McDonald	AUS	08:42:23	08:46:05	00:54:17	04:41:01	03:02:05	67% +7% -26% (42)	80
11	16	Thomas Gerlach	USA	08:43:33	09:01:16	00:54:41	04:38:09	03:05:43	39% +11% -51% (21)	129
12	29	Jonathan Shearon	USA	08:44:13	08:54:44	00:54:22	04:39:30	03:05:21	63% +10% -26% (14)	100
13	20	Stephen Kilshaw	CAN	08:47:45	09:11:37	00:55:55	04:46:38	03:00:13	59% +40% -1% (8)	164
14	15	Scott Defilippis	USA	08:50:00	09:11:49	00:57:10	04:53:46	02:54:04	32% +29% -39% (22)	167
15	11	Christopher Bagg	USA	08:56:37	09:26:21	00:54:43	04:48:27	03:08:26	8% +36% -56% (12)	210
16	13	Guy Crawford	NZL	08:59:21	09:14:38	00:49:49	04:40:26	03:24:06	27% +37% -36% (12)	179
17	19	Chad Holderbaum	USA	09:04:15	09:13:54	00:55:22	04:50:00	03:13:53	41% +9% -50% (10)	176
18	14	Matthew Curbeau	USA	09:05:32	09:25:58	00:56:38	04:49:04	03:14:51	33% +43% -24% (6)	208
19	25	James Lubinski	USA	09:08:26	09:28:28	01:03:21	04:54:44	03:05:21	38% +35% -27% (17)	217
20	23	Colin Laughery	USA	09:14:57	09:22:30	00:59:51	04:57:55	03:12:11	100% +0% -0% (3)	(197)
21	27	Brendan Naef	CAN	09:15:17	09:34:31	00:58:09	04:59:24	03:12:43	51% +49% -0% (8)	230
22	28	Kyle Pawlaczyk	USA	09:17:06	09:52:27	00:56:49	05:01:21	03:13:56	6% +19% -75% (8)	(263)
23	18	Travis Hawkins	USA	09:36:23	09:50:05	01:03:07	05:07:43	03:20:33	100% +0% -0% (2)	(261)
24	21	Peter Kotland	CZE	09:36:41	09:55:55	00:59:52	05:03:15	03:28:35	54% +26% -21% (21)	266
25	12	Timothy Clarke	USA	09:47:06	10:06:57	00:57:38	05:09:16	03:35:12	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(278)
	10	Chris Leiferman	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	17	Nick Glavac	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	22	David Lacombe	CAN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	26	Jerome McEniry	CAN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	35	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	09:09:43	09:18:10	00:51:19	04:57:52	03:15:32	94% +0% -6% (18)	14
2	37	Carrie Lester	AUS	09:11:53	09:25:57	00:54:50	05:02:22	03:09:42	49% +36% -15% (19)	23
3	36	Amanda Stevens	USA	09:22:28	09:30:05	00:52:21	05:10:49	03:14:17	60% +21% -19% (17)	28
4	38	Uli Bromme	USA	09:37:45	09:51:41	01:03:53	05:10:33	03:18:19	35% +38% -27% (14)	70
5	40	Amber Ferreira	USA	09:40:01	09:55:26	00:57:34	05:14:28	03:23:00	43% +21% -36% (15)	80
6	39	Laurel Wassner	USA	09:44:31	09:52:41	00:55:43	05:28:05	03:15:43	68% +0% -32% (8)	73
7	41	Kate Bevilaqua	AUS	09:49:27	10:11:07	00:56:51	05:19:54	03:27:42	22% +6% -72% (27)	109
8	46	Caroline St-Pierre	CAN	09:57:34	10:20:51	00:56:51	05:36:38	03:19:04	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(132)
9	45	Caroline Martineau	CAN	10:12:48	10:35:05	01:04:30	05:27:15	03:36:02	42% +36% -22% (5)	(158)
10	42	Katy Cargiulo	USA	10:48:22	10:58:14	01:05:45	05:55:05	03:42:32	100% +0% -0% (3)	(166)
	43	Michelle Harburg	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	44	Jessica Jones	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	47	Amy Vantassel	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	48	Amanda Wendorff	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• Jordan Rapp: 29% (2-1)
• Callum Millward: 15% (6-1)
• Matthew Russell: 14% (6-1)
• Paul Matthews: 12% (7-1)
• Andrew Starykowicz: 8% (12-1)
• Eric Limkemann: 6% (15-1)
• Victor Del Corral: 6% (17-1)
• Romain Guillaume: 4% (22-1)
• Paul Ambrose: 4% (27-1)

Female Race Participants

• Mary Beth Ellis: 48% (1-1)
• Carrie Lester: 39% (2-1)
• Amanda Stevens: 8% (11-1)
• Uli Bromme: 2% (47-1)
• Amber Ferreira: 2% (55-1)

KPR Situation

Here are tables with the top-ranked athletes in the KPR (after the races of August 6th and 7th) that still have a chance for a Kona slot:

Top KPR Male Race Participants

Bib	Name	Nation	KPR points	KPR races
3	Matthew Russell	USA	6650	3+2 (720/180)
8	Callum Millward	NZL	3580	2+3 (685/435)
4	Chris McDonald	AUS	3525	3+2 (540/20)
7	Paul Matthews	AUS	3225	1+3 (2455/145)
2	Romain Guillaume	FRA	2535	2+3 (565/20)
1	Jordan Rapp	USA	2510	3+1 (340/0)
6	Andrew Starykowicz	USA	2500	1+3 (960/400)
9	Victor Del Corral	ESP	2320	1+2
29	Jonathan Shearon	USA	2115	3+2 (230/100)
10	Chris Leiferman	USA	1615	0+3 (0/435)

Top KPR Female Race Participants

Bib	Name	Nation	KPR points	KPR races
35	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	4900	2+3 (1900/180)
37	Carrie Lester	AUS	4420	2+2
36	Amanda Stevens	USA	2925	2+3 (720/145)
39	Laurel Wassner	USA	2405	2+3 (340/75)
41	Kate Bevilaqua	AUS	1775	1+3 (540/400)

Mary Beth Ellis has already raced in Maastricht (and won there basically securing a Kona slot) and Carrie Lester received a July slot. Both are unlikely to race before Kona.