Ironman Switzerland 2014 (July 27th) – Predictions

You can submit your own top picks on IM Predictions for a chance to win some nice prizes!
Update (July 22nd): There have been a few changes to the start list. Most notably, Natascha Badmann and Kristin Möller have been added to the women’s field – also changing the situation for the July KPR cutoff. (Thanks to Angela Naeth for letting me know that my data was outdated!)

Update (July 25th): Based on information I received from the Pro meeting, there is another interesting late addition: Daniela Ryf will be racing IM Switzerland as a “long training day”. She’s now being coached by Brett Sutton – you never know what he’ll be able to achieve with his athletes.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Christoph Mauch (SUI) 08:21:48 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:10:51
2006 Mathias Hecht (SUI) 08:26:01 Rebecca Preston (AUS) 09:24:18
2007 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:24:58 Rebecca Preston (AUS) 09:20:40
2008 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:16:05 Sibylle Matter (SUI) 09:30:12
2009 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:20:00 Sibylle Matter (SUI) 09:14:35
2010 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:12:40 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:00:04
2011 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:19:51 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:03:26
2012 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:17:13 Erika Csomor (HUN) 09:20:16
2013 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:33:39 Anja Beranek (GER) 09:21:31

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:55:59 04:32:16 03:01:59 08:33:39
2 Ivan Rana ESP 00:52:37 04:45:57 02:59:09 08:40:55
3 Per Bittner GER 00:55:47 04:49:07 02:57:54 08:46:23

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Anja Beranek GER 00:58:21 04:56:23 03:22:55 09:21:31
2 Celine Schaerer SUI 00:52:38 05:06:57 03:24:09 09:28:28
3 Erika Csomor HUN 01:01:21 05:10:12 03:17:24 09:33:17

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:12:40 Ronnie Schildknecht 2010-07-25
Swim overall 00:45:29 Benjamin Sanson 2005-07-15
Bike overall 04:27:42 Ronnie Schildknecht 2012-07-15
Run overall 02:41:58 Clemente Alonso-McKernan 2011-07-10
Total female 09:00:04 Karin Thuerig 2010-07-25
Swim female 00:51:35 Alison Hayden 2005-07-15
Bike female 04:43:53 Karin Thuerig 2010-07-25
Run female 03:04:24 Karin Thuerig 2010-07-25

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Switzerland is 07:57.

Race Adjustments for IM Switzerland

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 -03:50 00:25 02:46 -07:19 6 -03:50 00:25 02:46 -07:19
2006 15:12 01:09 04:34 00:02 21 05:41 00:47 03:40 -03:39
2007 16:41 -00:58 10:09 01:36 25 09:21 00:12 05:50 -01:54
2008 08:49 -00:10 01:43 01:50 22 09:13 00:06 04:48 -00:58
2009 12:50 -00:57 05:50 05:19 30 09:56 -00:06 05:00 00:18
2010 07:14 -01:25 05:36 01:59 27 09:29 -00:19 05:06 00:34
2011 11:01 -02:31 00:56 07:24 17 09:42 -00:38 04:31 01:33
2012 08:30 -03:10 04:02 02:18 24 09:33 -00:57 04:27 01:39
2013 -04:50 -05:13 02:43 -05:08 35 07:57 -01:26 04:15 00:53

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Switzerland has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 1 Pete Jacobs AUS 08:31:36 08:39:15 00:47:22 04:43:08 03:03:47 42
2 10 David Plese SLO 08:34:20 08:42:02 00:53:26 04:43:39 02:57:46 49
3 11 Filip Ospaly CZE 08:35:05 08:42:47 00:46:44 04:47:54 02:49:15 (53)
4 8 Michael Goehner GER 08:42:09 08:49:58 00:53:39 04:45:08 03:03:43 71
5 7 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:42:22 08:50:11 00:47:51 04:50:00 03:05:53 72
6 2 Jan Van Berkel SUI 08:43:16 08:51:06 00:48:11 04:40:56 03:16:07 76
7 3 Georg Potrebitsch GER 08:44:40 08:52:31 00:48:50 04:51:16 03:11:41 87
8 20 Darby Thomas FIN 08:44:42 08:52:33 00:57:15 04:45:41 03:00:03 88
9 12 Joe Skipper GBR 08:49:45 08:57:40 00:53:50 04:47:19 03:04:48 113
(9) 34 Alejandro Santamaria ESP 08:49:57 08:57:53 00:54:48 04:54:33 03:03:23 114
10 4 Mathias Hecht SUI 08:50:11 08:58:07 00:49:06 04:51:09 03:12:18 (116)
11 9 Sergio Marques POR 08:55:16 09:03:16 00:55:31 05:04:34 03:00:15 138
12 6 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:56:03 09:04:04 01:00:35 04:50:53 03:05:48 143
13 5 Boris Stein GER 08:56:15 09:04:16 00:56:44 04:38:39 03:07:16 (145)
14 29 Daniel Niederreiter AUT 08:58:02 09:06:05 00:52:10 04:54:51 03:11:34 (155)
(15) 32 Vincent Riess AUT 08:58:47 09:06:50 00:53:45 05:56:55 02:58:31 159
(16) 33 Bertrand Billard FRA 09:00:26 09:08:31 00:48:02 04:41:11 03:17:38 (163)
15 15 Reto Stutz SUI 09:03:35 09:11:43 00:56:57 04:44:14 03:17:27 (177)
16 21 Gabriele Mazzetta ITA 09:07:08 09:15:19 00:51:55 04:59:10 03:12:21 (190)
17 19 Tomas Mika CZE 09:24:16 09:32:42 00:52:27 05:16:09 03:09:53 (257)
18 28 Stefan Eichheimer GER 09:26:28 09:34:56 00:57:35 04:56:32 03:18:44 (264)
19 30 Daniel Mueller GER 09:30:04 09:38:36 00:51:15 05:05:44 03:37:50 282
20 18 David Jilek CZE 09:42:33 09:51:16 00:58:18 04:57:43 03:33:24 (330)
21 24 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 09:54:45 10:03:39 01:00:05 05:22:20 03:32:09 371
22 17 Remmert Wielinga NED 10:13:04 10:22:14 01:17:55 04:52:30 03:49:43 (417)
23 22 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:52:18 12:02:57 01:11:45 05:56:37 04:43:06 452
24 27 Josef Svoboda CZE 11:58:05 12:08:49 01:12:22 06:08:08 04:30:39 453
16 Dominic Rohan-Gates GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
23 Eduardo Crooke Gonzalez ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
25 Roland Schlappal AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
26 Mauro Baertsch SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
(1) 58 Natascha Badmann SUI 09:19:36 09:27:58 01:01:05 05:02:13 03:16:35 16
1 54 Sonja Tajsich GER 09:22:54 09:31:19 01:01:43 05:12:55 03:09:21 22
2 52 Erika Csomor HUN 09:23:05 09:31:30 00:57:55 05:13:47 03:13:21 23
3 51 Celine Schaerer SUI 09:26:14 09:34:42 00:47:38 05:09:46 03:18:38 (32)
(5) 59 Kristin Moeller GER 09:27:06 09:35:35 01:03:31 05:19:35 03:06:11 32
4   Astrid Ganzow GER 09:46:14 09:55:00 00:58:32 05:09:46 03:31:50 (79)
5 66 Michaela Rudolf AUT 09:47:31 09:56:18 01:05:09 05:12:47 03:30:04 83
6 53 Regula Rohrbach SUI 09:47:31 09:56:18 00:57:33 05:10:23 03:37:33 83
7 60 Nicole Klingler GER 10:03:52 10:12:54 01:06:10 05:30:59 03:33:57 (113)
8 62 Saleta Castro ESP 10:04:20 10:13:22 00:56:19 05:28:10 03:40:00 113
9 65 Katharina Grohmann GER 10:04:34 10:13:36 01:14:22 05:26:24 03:21:40 114
10 55 Evi Neuscheler GER 10:13:39 10:22:50 01:07:18 05:17:49 03:32:34 (133)
11 68 Monique Grossrieder SUI 10:14:50 10:24:02 01:05:22 05:37:27 03:29:21 133
12 64 Nicole Woysch GER 10:16:04 10:25:17 00:58:35 05:30:28 03:47:39 136
13 61 Vanessa Pereira POR 10:30:21 10:39:47 01:02:49 05:40:03 03:37:34 (149)
14 63 Megumi Shigaki JPN 10:43:59 10:53:37 00:59:12 05:41:39 04:04:48 154
67 Sabrina Mohn SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
56 Carolin Lehrieder GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Daniela Ryf SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The biggest name on the start list is Pete Jacobs – just one week after Roth he will try to validate his automatic Kona slot by just finishing. Even though he is the statistical odds-on favorite, I don’t see him to contend for the win. Mathias Hecht and Jan Van Berkel will try to continue the Swiss winning streak, but they face strong competition from Eastern European David Plese and Filip Ospaly, British Stephen Bayliss and German athletes Georg Potrebitsch and Michael Goehner.

  • Pete Jacobs: 29% (2-1)
  • David Plese: 14% (6-1)
  • Mathias Hecht: 11% (8-1)
  • Stephen Bayliss: 10% (9-1)
  • Filip Ospaly: 9% (10-1)
  • Georg Potrebitsch: 9% (10-1)
  • Michael Goehner: 6% (14-1)
  • Sergio Marques: 6% (16-1)
  • Jan Van Berkel: 5% (21-1)

Female Race Participants

On the women’s side, Erika Csomor has to be considered the favorite – she’s doing her „normal“ Austria – Switzerland double. Sonja Tajsich is still on the start list, but after her disappointing race in Frankfurt she’s probably a non-start. Similar to the men, Celine Schaerer and Regula Rohrbach will try to win another edition for their home country.

  • Erika Csomor: 38% (2-1)
  • Sonja Tajsich: 38% (2-1)
  • Celine Schaerer: 13% (6-1)
  • Regula Rohrbach: 7% (13-1)

Assessing the impact of Natascha and Kristin is tricky. As for Sonja, they have raced in Frankfurt and are probably not yet fully recovered. However, both just need a few extra KPR points, so they seem to be willing to risk a start so soon after their last IM. They might have a great day, but will probably not contend for the win. 

KPR Situation

Men

As noted above, Pete Jacobs just has has to finish to validate his automatic Kona slot.

After him, there are two athletes in a good position to qualify in July: David Plese (3.325) and Filip Ospaly (3.170) just need a few hundred additional points, so a 7th place should be enough for either of them. Behind them, Stephen Bayliss (1.690), Michael Geoehner (1.590) and Boris Stein (1.500) would need a win to get to the cutoff number – not very likely. Other athletes – such as Jan Van Berkel (1.215) – are already too far back, but they could use the points to increase their chances for an August slot.

Women

On the women’s side there is no athlete that can get to my projected cutoff of 4.900 points. The best placed athlete is Erika Csomor at 2.460 points.

The addition of Natascha and Kristin make Switzerland a lot more interesting from a KPR perspective. Kristin (4.790) just needs few hundred extra points to be really sure of a slot, so 10th is probably enough for her. Natascha has 3.755 points and needs at least 1.000 points to get a slot.  A 4th place (960 points) might be enough, but a 3rd (1.280 points) would be better.

Daniela Ryf (late entry) is an athlete that I had so far in the “not interested” category. She has already scored 2.810 points just from 70.3s, so winning the race might get her very close to the qualifying threshold. I have no idea whether this is a reasonable goal for her, but she is trained by Brett Sutton and he wouldn’t let her race if she wasn’t ready for it.

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