Ironman Lake Placid 2014 (July 27th) – Predictions

Update (July 23rd): Matt Hanson will not be starting, he’s decided to focus on qualifying for Kona 2015. In addition, Jozsef Major won’t race.

Update (July 25th): As I suspected, Amanda Stevens will not be racing. She’s probably focusing on Kona already!

You can submit your own top picks on IM Predictions for a chance to win some nice prizes!

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Pierre Lavoie (CAN) 09:27:22 Heather Fuhr (USA) 09:45:06
2006 Victor Zyemtsev (USA) 08:38:18 Hollie Kenney (USA) 10:50:42
2007 Alex McDonald (USA) 09:16:02 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:40:20
2008 Francisco Pontano (ARG) 08:43:32 Caitlin Snow (USA) 09:51:00
2009 Maik Twelsiek (GER) 08:36:37 Tereza Macel (CZE) 09:29:36
2010 Ben Hoffman (USA) 08:39:34 Amy Marsh (USA) 09:27:30
2011 TJ Tollakson (USA) 08:25:15 Heather Wurtele (CAN) 09:19:03
2012 Andy Potts (USA) 08:25:07 Jessie Donavan (USA) 09:47:39
2013 Andy Potts (USA) 08:43:29 Jennie Hansen (USA) 09:35:06

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Andy Potts USA 00:46:48 04:48:33 03:02:41 08:43:29
2 Daniel Fontana ITA 00:49:23 04:56:21 02:58:00 08:48:29
3 Ian Mikelson USA 00:49:55 05:02:43 02:53:41 08:51:07

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jennie Hansen USA 01:03:16 05:20:25 03:05:04 09:35:06
2 Katy Blakemore USA 00:52:05 05:32:12 03:12:31 09:42:35
3 Carrie Lester AUS 00:55:17 05:23:29 03:23:10 09:47:59

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:25:07 Andy Potts 2012-07-22
Swim overall 00:45:01 Andy Potts 2012-07-22
Bike overall 04:33:33 TJ Tollakson 2011-07-24
Run overall 02:48:20 Victor Zyemtsev 2006-07-23
Total female 09:19:03 Heather Wurtele 2011-07-24
Swim female 00:50:48 Tereza Macel 2009-07-26
Bike female 05:07:44 Amy Marsh 2010-07-25
Run female 02:57:05 Caitlin Snow 2009-07-26

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Lake Placid is – 02:37.

Race Adjustments for IM Lake Placid

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 04:36 01:42 -17:09 15:06 8 04:36 01:42 -17:09 15:06
2006 -16:12 00:30 -13:47 -06:50 22 -05:48 01:06 -15:28 04:08
2007 -11:28 00:54 -11:41 00:21 15 -07:41 01:02 -14:12 02:52
2008 -01:31 00:31 -06:08 01:07 33 -06:09 00:54 -12:11 02:26
2009 -02:30 -00:01 -08:33 -01:15 36 -05:25 00:43 -11:28 01:42
2010 02:33 -02:53 -03:47 01:49 37 -04:06 00:07 -10:11 01:43
2011 01:14 -02:56 -04:18 03:20 20 -03:20 -00:19 -09:20 01:57
2012 -00:39 00:38 -06:49 01:39 11 -03:00 -00:12 -09:02 01:54
2013 00:21 00:09 -05:15 02:22 27 -02:37 -00:10 -08:36 01:57

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Lake Placid has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 8 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:35:17 08:32:47 00:48:24 04:28:52 02:56:30 (21)
2 14 Matt Hanson USA 08:50:37 08:48:03 00:55:48 04:56:56 02:48:48 63
3 3 Pedro Gomes POR 08:54:27 08:51:52 00:50:51 04:48:05 03:08:09 80
4 2 Jozsef Major HUN 08:55:29 08:52:54 00:57:27 04:43:26 03:05:51 91
5 4 Joshua Rix AUS 09:03:00 09:00:22 00:49:53 04:46:48 03:19:49 127
6 6 AJ Baucco USA 09:03:20 09:00:42 unrated 04:53:31 03:09:13 132
7 21 Jonathan Shearon USA 09:03:26 09:00:48 00:53:34 04:46:17 03:14:41 133
8 12 Balazs Csoke HUN 09:06:37 09:03:58 00:48:07 04:50:44 03:20:32 141
9 9 James Chesson USA 09:08:18 09:05:39 00:55:54 04:50:12 03:05:09 (152)
10 10 Ryan Cain CAN 09:16:15 09:13:34 00:55:59 05:03:31 03:08:08 187
11 23 Patrick Wheeler USA 09:20:48 09:18:05 00:56:04 05:07:19 03:07:36 196
12 11 Greg Close USA 09:30:41 09:27:55 00:58:05 05:04:24 03:12:55 (235)
13 15 Vinny Johnson USA 09:32:08 09:29:22 00:53:18 05:09:47 03:10:04 (244)
14 22 Jesse Vondracek USA 09:37:08 09:34:21 00:55:42 05:12:17 03:19:15 263
15 7 Raymond Botelho USA 09:38:26 09:35:38 00:54:48 04:56:05 03:37:02 267
16 20 Kyle Pawlaczyk USA 09:39:26 09:36:38 00:55:32 05:11:25 03:24:48 269
17 17 Jim Lubinski USA 09:50:13 09:47:22 01:03:24 05:18:00 03:20:52 314
18 16 Peter Kotland USA 10:01:34 09:58:39 00:57:17 05:19:08 03:33:48 361
19 18 Simon Malo CAN 10:02:39 09:59:44 00:57:21 05:06:48 03:44:02 (364)
5 Felipe Aguayo CHE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
13 Andrew Fast USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
19 Tomas Martinek CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 41 Kim Schwabenbauer USA 09:40:51 09:38:02 01:02:39 05:15:24 03:14:55 37
2 38 Lisa Roberts USA 09:41:11 09:38:22 01:03:56 05:15:48 03:11:21 40
3 31 Amanda Stevens USA 09:46:29 09:43:39 00:49:32 05:20:05 03:28:59 48
4 32 Amber Ferreira USA 09:57:37 09:54:44 00:54:57 05:29:11 03:26:30 76
5 34 Jessica Meyers USA 10:00:06 09:57:12 00:59:50 05:23:17 03:23:16 (87)
6 33 Rachel Jastrebsky USA 10:22:00 10:19:00 01:00:53 05:34:26 03:35:44 128
7 44 Kristyn Tobey BMU 10:39:44 10:36:38 01:08:33 05:31:10 03:42:46 (144)
8 36 Leslie Lamacchia USA 10:49:50 10:46:41 01:08:45 05:35:40 03:47:34 (151)
9 40 Robin Sandos USA 11:13:06 11:09:51 00:58:50 05:42:44 04:04:28 (158)
10 35 Amanda Kourtz USA 11:14:28 11:11:12 01:15:05 05:22:32 04:14:42 (158)
37 Kristin Lemos USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
43 Kathryn Thomas USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
39 Darbi Roberts USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Based on my predictions, it does not look to well for another US winner in Lake Placid. The odds are lead by Pedro Gomes (who took things a bit easier after qualifying for Kona), followed Kyle Buckingham (who had great first Pro Ironman by finishing 2nd in his home race in South Africa). Matt Hanson is probably the US athlete with the best chances, he’s had two great results earlier this year: 6th in Texas and 5th in Coeur d’Alene, posting the fastest run splits in both of them.

  • Pedro Gomes: 35% (2-1)
  • Kyle Buckingham: 20% (4-1)
  • Jozsef Major: 14% (6-1)
  • Matt Hanson: 13% (7-1)
  • Joshua Rix: 7% (12-1)
  • Balazs Csoke: 5% (19-1)
  • Jonathan Shearon: 3% (34-1)

Female Race Participants

A US win is almost assured on the women’s side: There is only one non-US pro on the start list. Amanda will probably lead the race for most of the day, but Lisa, Kim and Amber will make the race interesting on the run.

  • Amanda Stevens: 40% (2-1)
  • Lisa Roberts: 31% (2-1)
  • Kim Schwabenbauer: 17% (5-1)
  • Amber Ferreira: 9% (11-1)
  • Jessica Meyers: 3% (36-1)

The Race for Seventh

DarkMark, TheRealStarky and Pay10Deep are raising money to pay the 7th finishers in the men’s and women’s race at Ironman Lake Placid. They have asked me to analyze the athlete’s chances for a seventh place finish. In addition, Luke and I are helping them to increase awareness for the issue of small professional prize purses in Ironman races by offering a special version of IM Predicitions allowing you to pick the 7th finisher in the Lake Placid Pro races.

Men

Here are the athletes with the best chances to finish seventh:

  • Raymond Botelho: 11% (8-1)
  • Greg Close: 11% (8-1)
  • AJ Baucco: 9% (10-1)
  • Joshua Rix: 9% (10-1)
  • Ryan Cain: 8% (11-1)
  • Patrick Wheeler: 8% (11-1)

Women

The women’s side is a lot trickier – with only 13 athletes on the start list, there could be less than seven finishers. (Actually, „no one“ is my most probable prediction at about 30%, but my models aren’t well calibrated for these predicting the number of finishes.) Here are the likeliest seventh finishers:

  • Leslie Lamacchia: 10% (9-1)
  • Kristin Lemos: 9% (10-1)
  • Kathryn Thomas: 9% (10-1)
  • Darbi Roberts: 9% (10-1)
  • Kristyn Tobey: 7% (12-1)

KPR Situation

Men

Not too many athletes from Lake Placid are contending for a July Kona slot. Kyle Buckingham is the one with the most points, but at 2.024 he would need a second or better to get to my projected cutoff at 3.500 points. Matt Hanson (1.480) and Pedro Gomes (1.440) could also make it with a win.

Women

Amanda Stevens should already be safe for a Kona slot – she sits at 5.175 points and my projected cutoff is at 4.900. Lisa Roberts (4.005) and Kim Schwabenbauer (3.450) should be able to get a Kona slot with a good placing (4th and 2nd respectively). Amber Ferreira (2.425 points) is already too far back to be able to qualify in July.

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