Update (July 23rd): Matt Hanson will not be starting, he’s decided to focus on qualifying for Kona 2015. In addition, Jozsef Major won’t race.
Update (July 25th): As I suspected, Amanda Stevens will not be racing. She’s probably focusing on Kona already!
You can submit your own top picks on IM Predictions for a chance to win some nice prizes!
Previous Winners
| Year | Male Winner | Time | Female Winner | Time |
| 2005 | Pierre Lavoie (CAN) | 09:27:22 | Heather Fuhr (USA) | 09:45:06 |
| 2006 | Victor Zyemtsev (USA) | 08:38:18 | Hollie Kenney (USA) | 10:50:42 |
| 2007 | Alex McDonald (USA) | 09:16:02 | Belinda Granger (AUS) | 09:40:20 |
| 2008 | Francisco Pontano (ARG) | 08:43:32 | Caitlin Snow (USA) | 09:51:00 |
| 2009 | Maik Twelsiek (GER) | 08:36:37 | Tereza Macel (CZE) | 09:29:36 |
| 2010 | Ben Hoffman (USA) | 08:39:34 | Amy Marsh (USA) | 09:27:30 |
| 2011 | TJ Tollakson (USA) | 08:25:15 | Heather Wurtele (CAN) | 09:19:03 |
| 2012 | Andy Potts (USA) | 08:25:07 | Jessie Donavan (USA) | 09:47:39 |
| 2013 | Andy Potts (USA) | 08:43:29 | Jennie Hansen (USA) | 09:35:06 |
Last Year’s TOP 3
Male Race Results
| Rank | Name | Nation | Swim | Bike | Run | Time |
| 1 | Andy Potts | USA | 00:46:48 | 04:48:33 | 03:02:41 | 08:43:29 |
| 2 | Daniel Fontana | ITA | 00:49:23 | 04:56:21 | 02:58:00 | 08:48:29 |
| 3 | Ian Mikelson | USA | 00:49:55 | 05:02:43 | 02:53:41 | 08:51:07 |
Female Race Results
| Rank | Name | Nation | Swim | Bike | Run | Time |
| 1 | Jennie Hansen | USA | 01:03:16 | 05:20:25 | 03:05:04 | 09:35:06 |
| 2 | Katy Blakemore | USA | 00:52:05 | 05:32:12 | 03:12:31 | 09:42:35 |
| 3 | Carrie Lester | AUS | 00:55:17 | 05:23:29 | 03:23:10 | 09:47:59 |
Course Records
| Leg | Gender | Record | Athlete | Date |
| Total | overall | 08:25:07 | Andy Potts | 2012-07-22 |
| Swim | overall | 00:45:01 | Andy Potts | 2012-07-22 |
| Bike | overall | 04:33:33 | TJ Tollakson | 2011-07-24 |
| Run | overall | 02:48:20 | Victor Zyemtsev | 2006-07-23 |
| Total | female | 09:19:03 | Heather Wurtele | 2011-07-24 |
| Swim | female | 00:50:48 | Tereza Macel | 2009-07-26 |
| Bike | female | 05:07:44 | Amy Marsh | 2010-07-25 |
| Run | female | 02:57:05 | Caitlin Snow | 2009-07-26 |
Course Rating
The Course Rating for IM Lake Placid is – 02:37.
Race Adjustments for IM Lake Placid
| Year | Adjustment | Swim Adj. | Bike Adj. | Run Adj. | # of Athletes | Rating | Swim Rating | Bike Rating | Run Rating |
| 2005 | 04:36 | 01:42 | -17:09 | 15:06 | 8 | 04:36 | 01:42 | -17:09 | 15:06 |
| 2006 | -16:12 | 00:30 | -13:47 | -06:50 | 22 | -05:48 | 01:06 | -15:28 | 04:08 |
| 2007 | -11:28 | 00:54 | -11:41 | 00:21 | 15 | -07:41 | 01:02 | -14:12 | 02:52 |
| 2008 | -01:31 | 00:31 | -06:08 | 01:07 | 33 | -06:09 | 00:54 | -12:11 | 02:26 |
| 2009 | -02:30 | -00:01 | -08:33 | -01:15 | 36 | -05:25 | 00:43 | -11:28 | 01:42 |
| 2010 | 02:33 | -02:53 | -03:47 | 01:49 | 37 | -04:06 | 00:07 | -10:11 | 01:43 |
| 2011 | 01:14 | -02:56 | -04:18 | 03:20 | 20 | -03:20 | -00:19 | -09:20 | 01:57 |
| 2012 | -00:39 | 00:38 | -06:49 | 01:39 | 11 | -03:00 | -00:12 | -09:02 | 01:54 |
| 2013 | 00:21 | 00:09 | -05:15 | 02:22 | 27 | -02:37 | -00:10 | -08:36 | 01:57 |
KPR points and Prize Money
IM Lake Placid has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 25k$.
Male Race Participants
| Rank | Bib | Name | Nation | Expected Time | Rating | Swim Rating | Bike Rating | Run Rating | Rank |
| 1 | 8 | Kyle Buckingham | ZAF | 08:35:17 | 08:32:47 | 00:48:24 | 04:28:52 | 02:56:30 | (21) |
| 3 | 3 | Pedro Gomes | POR | 08:54:27 | 08:51:52 | 00:50:51 | 04:48:05 | 03:08:09 | 80 |
| 5 | 4 | Joshua Rix | AUS | 09:03:00 | 09:00:22 | 00:49:53 | 04:46:48 | 03:19:49 | 127 |
| 6 | 6 | AJ Baucco | USA | 09:03:20 | 09:00:42 | unrated | 04:53:31 | 03:09:13 | 132 |
| 7 | 21 | Jonathan Shearon | USA | 09:03:26 | 09:00:48 | 00:53:34 | 04:46:17 | 03:14:41 | 133 |
| 8 | 12 | Balazs Csoke | HUN | 09:06:37 | 09:03:58 | 00:48:07 | 04:50:44 | 03:20:32 | 141 |
| 9 | 9 | James Chesson | USA | 09:08:18 | 09:05:39 | 00:55:54 | 04:50:12 | 03:05:09 | (152) |
| 10 | 10 | Ryan Cain | CAN | 09:16:15 | 09:13:34 | 00:55:59 | 05:03:31 | 03:08:08 | 187 |
| 11 | 23 | Patrick Wheeler | USA | 09:20:48 | 09:18:05 | 00:56:04 | 05:07:19 | 03:07:36 | 196 |
| 12 | 11 | Greg Close | USA | 09:30:41 | 09:27:55 | 00:58:05 | 05:04:24 | 03:12:55 | (235) |
| 13 | 15 | Vinny Johnson | USA | 09:32:08 | 09:29:22 | 00:53:18 | 05:09:47 | 03:10:04 | (244) |
| 14 | 22 | Jesse Vondracek | USA | 09:37:08 | 09:34:21 | 00:55:42 | 05:12:17 | 03:19:15 | 263 |
| 15 | 7 | Raymond Botelho | USA | 09:38:26 | 09:35:38 | 00:54:48 | 04:56:05 | 03:37:02 | 267 |
| 16 | 20 | Kyle Pawlaczyk | USA | 09:39:26 | 09:36:38 | 00:55:32 | 05:11:25 | 03:24:48 | 269 |
| 17 | 17 | Jim Lubinski | USA | 09:50:13 | 09:47:22 | 01:03:24 | 05:18:00 | 03:20:52 | 314 |
| 18 | 16 | Peter Kotland | USA | 10:01:34 | 09:58:39 | 00:57:17 | 05:19:08 | 03:33:48 | 361 |
| 19 | 18 | Simon Malo | CAN | 10:02:39 | 09:59:44 | 00:57:21 | 05:06:48 | 03:44:02 | (364) |
| 5 | Felipe Aguayo | CHE | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | |
| 13 | Andrew Fast | USA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | |
| 19 | Tomas Martinek | CZE | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) |
Female Race Participants
| Rank | Bib | Name | Nation | Expected Time | Rating | Swim Rating | Bike Rating | Run Rating | Rank |
| 1 | 41 | Kim Schwabenbauer | USA | 09:40:51 | 09:38:02 | 01:02:39 | 05:15:24 | 03:14:55 | 37 |
| 2 | 38 | Lisa Roberts | USA | 09:41:11 | 09:38:22 | 01:03:56 | 05:15:48 | 03:11:21 | 40 |
| 4 | 32 | Amber Ferreira | USA | 09:57:37 | 09:54:44 | 00:54:57 | 05:29:11 | 03:26:30 | 76 |
| 5 | 34 | Jessica Meyers | USA | 10:00:06 | 09:57:12 | 00:59:50 | 05:23:17 | 03:23:16 | (87) |
| 6 | 33 | Rachel Jastrebsky | USA | 10:22:00 | 10:19:00 | 01:00:53 | 05:34:26 | 03:35:44 | 128 |
| 7 | 44 | Kristyn Tobey | BMU | 10:39:44 | 10:36:38 | 01:08:33 | 05:31:10 | 03:42:46 | (144) |
| 8 | 36 | Leslie Lamacchia | USA | 10:49:50 | 10:46:41 | 01:08:45 | 05:35:40 | 03:47:34 | (151) |
| 9 | 40 | Robin Sandos | USA | 11:13:06 | 11:09:51 | 00:58:50 | 05:42:44 | 04:04:28 | (158) |
| 10 | 35 | Amanda Kourtz | USA | 11:14:28 | 11:11:12 | 01:15:05 | 05:22:32 | 04:14:42 | (158) |
| 37 | Kristin Lemos | USA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | |
| 43 | Kathryn Thomas | USA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | |
| 39 | Darbi Roberts | USA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) |
Winning Odds
Male Race Participants
Based on my predictions, it does not look to well for another US winner in Lake Placid. The odds are lead by Pedro Gomes (who took things a bit easier after qualifying for Kona), followed Kyle Buckingham (who had great first Pro Ironman by finishing 2nd in his home race in South Africa). Matt Hanson is probably the US athlete with the best chances, he’s had two great results earlier this year: 6th in Texas and 5th in Coeur d’Alene, posting the fastest run splits in both of them.
- Pedro Gomes: 35% (2-1)
- Kyle Buckingham: 20% (4-1)
Jozsef Major: 14% (6-1)Matt Hanson: 13% (7-1)- Joshua Rix: 7% (12-1)
- Balazs Csoke: 5% (19-1)
- Jonathan Shearon: 3% (34-1)
Female Race Participants
A US win is almost assured on the women’s side: There is only one non-US pro on the start list. Amanda will probably lead the race for most of the day, but Lisa, Kim and Amber will make the race interesting on the run.
Amanda Stevens: 40% (2-1)- Lisa Roberts: 31% (2-1)
- Kim Schwabenbauer: 17% (5-1)
- Amber Ferreira: 9% (11-1)
- Jessica Meyers: 3% (36-1)
The Race for Seventh
DarkMark, TheRealStarky and Pay10Deep are raising money to pay the 7th finishers in the men’s and women’s race at Ironman Lake Placid. They have asked me to analyze the athlete’s chances for a seventh place finish. In addition, Luke and I are helping them to increase awareness for the issue of small professional prize purses in Ironman races by offering a special version of IM Predicitions allowing you to pick the 7th finisher in the Lake Placid Pro races.
Men
Here are the athletes with the best chances to finish seventh:
- Raymond Botelho: 11% (8-1)
- Greg Close: 11% (8-1)
- AJ Baucco: 9% (10-1)
- Joshua Rix: 9% (10-1)
- Ryan Cain: 8% (11-1)
- Patrick Wheeler: 8% (11-1)
Women
The women’s side is a lot trickier – with only 13 athletes on the start list, there could be less than seven finishers. (Actually, „no one“ is my most probable prediction at about 30%, but my models aren’t well calibrated for these predicting the number of finishes.) Here are the likeliest seventh finishers:
- Leslie Lamacchia: 10% (9-1)
- Kristin Lemos: 9% (10-1)
- Kathryn Thomas: 9% (10-1)
- Darbi Roberts: 9% (10-1)
- Kristyn Tobey: 7% (12-1)
KPR Situation
Men
Not too many athletes from Lake Placid are contending for a July Kona slot. Kyle Buckingham is the one with the most points, but at 2.024 he would need a second or better to get to my projected cutoff at 3.500 points. Matt Hanson (1.480) and Pedro Gomes (1.440) could also make it with a win.
Women
Amanda Stevens should already be safe for a Kona slot – she sits at 5.175 points and my projected cutoff is at 4.900. Lisa Roberts (4.005) and Kim Schwabenbauer (3.450) should be able to get a Kona slot with a good placing (4th and 2nd respectively). Amber Ferreira (2.425 points) is already too far back to be able to qualify in July.