Kona 2012 Odds: April Changes

In February, I started a series of posts on the Kona 2012 odds. This is the April update, after IM Melbourne and IM South Africa. You can always see the latest odds by clicking “Kona 2012 Odds” in the main menu.

Men

The current odds are as follows:

  • Craig Alexander: 34%
  • Chris McCormack, Andreas Raelert, Marino Vanhoenacker: 12% each
  • Pete Jacobs: 7%
  • Eneko Llanos, Cameron Brown: 6%
  • Paul Amey: 2%

And a look at the changes over time:

image

Here’s where the last set of changes are coming from:

  • I’ve added Chris McCormack back into the mix. With WTC “buying” the Cairns race and turning it into an “official” IM race with qualifying points and Chris being committed to race there (as he did last year when it was a Challenge race), his “validation” issue has been resolved and as long as he finishes he gets a spot on the Kona start list. He may still qulify for the Olympics, but even the he might show up in Kona to race. And once he’s in the race, he will have an influence on the dynamics of the race.
  • With Macca back in the race, almost everyone’s odds are going down.
  • Even with Macca in the field, Crowie’s great performance n Melbourne improved his odds to win again in Kona. He will be able to take his time to prepare for Kona and he seems to be on a completely different level of confidence since winning in Las Vegas and Kona.
  • After pushing Crowie to a sub-8 finish and delivering his career best performance, Cam Brown´s odds have grown to much more than a statistical blip.

Women

The current odds are as follows:

  • Mirinda Carfrae: 31%
  • Caroline Steffen: 19%
  • Leanda Cave: 14%
  • Rachel Joyce: 14%
  • Mary Beth Ellis: 7%
  • Catriona Morrison: 4%

The changes over the season:

image_thumb[7]

Here’s where the last set of changes are coming from:

  • The odds for Caroline Steffen and Rachel Joyce have improved after their great performances in Melbourne.
  • Rinnie’s odds have decreased after Melbourne, but she is still the clear favorite. However, I’m not worried about her for Kona – her Melbourne performance was better than her race in New Zealand last year.
  • For the rest of the athletes, there were no noticeable changes compared to February.
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