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Kona 2015 Odds – Male Pros

Male Winners


This year will be quite interesting as it is very hard to pick a clear favorite based purely on numbers. For Kona the previous year’s winner will always be in the mix. Defending champion Sebastian Kienle has shown some good races this year, so there is every reason to expect him close to the front again. But he is overshadowed by last year’s third, Jan Frodeno. Jan had a dominant race in Frankfurt, improving Sebi’s course record from last year and also winning the 70.3 Champs.

Based on the data the next athlete to consider is Marino Vanhoenacker. He still has to show that he can have one more great race in Kona. Frederik Van Lierde, the 2013 Champion, will be in the mix as well. Nils Frommhold seems to be ready to take another step forward after his 6th place last year and winning Challenge Roth in the summer.


  • Jan Frodeno 22% (3-1)
  • Sebastian Kienle 19% (4-1)

In the Mix

  • Marino Vanhoenacker 16% (5-1)
  • Frederik Van Lierde 12% (7-1)
  • Nils Frommhold 10% (9-1)

Long Shots

  • Brent McMahon 4% (26-1)
  • Ivan Rana 3% (28-1)
  • Andi Boecherer 3% (36-1)
  • Andy Potts 2% (50-1)

Male TOP 3

Sebi and Frodo are also my safe bets for a podium, but the third spot is pretty open. If Marino has a good race he has a good shot at the podium, but Frederik will make it hard. With Nils Frommhold and Andi Böcherer there are two more German podium contenders – we may easily end up with a German podium! Andy Potts is the big American hope for a podium spot.

Safe Bets

  • Sebastian Kienle 51% (1-1)
  • Jan Frodeno 44% (2-1)

Knocking on the Door

  • Marino Vanhoenacker 34% (2-1)
  • Nils Frommhold 29% (3-1)
  • Frederik Van Lierde 28% (3-1)
  • Andi Böcherer 27% (3-1)
  • Andy Potts 17% (5-1)

Outside Chances

  • Clemente Alonso 13% (7-1)
  • Brent MacMahon 13% (7-1)
  • Ivan Rana 8% (12-1)
  • Ronnie Schildknecht 8% (12-1)
  • Bas Diederen 6% (17-1)
  • Andreas Raelert 6% (17-1)
  • Jordan Rapp 4% (24-1)
  • Timothy O’Donnell 4% (27-1)
  • Ben Hoffmann 3% (31-3)

(Photo: Sebi and Frodo after the 70.3 Championships in Zell am See, Credit: Joern Pollex/Getty Images for Ironman)

This is an excerpt from my free “Kona Rating Report” – 150+ pages with tons of information about the Kona Pro races!

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