Looking ahead to Kona 2013 – First Predictions

In 2012 I did a series of posts on the winning odds for Kona and how they change over the year. I’d like to continue that for 2013. Here is the first post of that series.

Male

After all the 2012 racing is over, here are the chances for winning Kona 2013 for the men:

  • Craig Alexander: 24% (3-1)
  • Pete Jacobs: 23% (3-1)
  • Marino Vanhoenacker: 17% (5-1)
  • Chris McCormack: 11% (8-1)
  • Andreas Raelert: 7% (13-1)
  • James Cunnama: 5% (18-1)
  • Nils Frommhold: 3% (31-1)
  • Cameron Brown: 2% (43-1)
  • Eneko Llanos: 2% (43-1)
The graph on the right shows the changes that occurred since early October 2012 (including Kona):Kona2013MenOdds
  • Crowie’s “bad” race in Kona decreased his chances, but he still leads the odds. (Similar to Macca, it remains to be seen if he is actually going to race Kona 2013).
  • With Crowie’s lowered odds, the DNFs of Macca and Marino actually led to an increase in their odds (even in the absence of new results). They’ll have to race in 2013 if they want to qualify for Kona, and that will give a better indication of where they are.
  • Pete Jacobs’ win has put him into almost a statistical dead heat with Crowie. He just knows how to race Kona, and it will be very interesting to see what influence the pressure of defending is going to have on him.
  • Andreas Raelert continues to slip in the odds. After four years on the Kona podium, you can’t ignore him, but will he ever make it to the top spot? I’m keeping my fingers crossed for him!
  • James Cunnama is just one of a number of new athletes that didn’t race Kona in 2012 but may play a role in 2013.
  • Eneko Llanos (just as Cam Brown) is still a great athlete, but probably can’t be considered a top Kona contender for much longer.

Female

Here are the 2013 Kona odds for the women:

  • Mirinda Carfrae: 25% (3-1)
  • Leanda Cave: 22% (4-1)
  • Caroline Steffen: 22% (4-1)
  • Rachel Joyce: 11% (8-1)
  • Mary Beth Ellis: 7% (13-1)
  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 4% (26-1)

Here are a few of the events that lead to the changes:Kona2013WomenOdds

  • After the Kona race, Rinnie, Leanda and Caroline are very close together – it would be very hard to pick a favorite. Rinnie has to find back to her winning form, and Leanda and Caroline will have to work hard to repeat their great 2012 season (or even improve further). An exciting October to look forward to, especially considering that Rinnie and Leanda probably won’t race another IM before Kona!
  • Rachel and Mary Beth will look for some further improvement to close the (statistical) gap to the first three women.
  • As for the men, there are going to be a few athletes that were not on the 2012 list that are going to play in role in 2013.¬†Yvonne van Vlercken is one example, if she manages to stay on track with her training and prep, I’m sure that she’ll have a great season.
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