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Ironman Australia 2018 – Analyzing Results

IMAustraliaLogoCourse Conditions

After all the fast results at IM Texas one week ago, IM Australia had results close to what could have been expected from previous years. Conditions were good, but not massively: The swim and bike were a little bit faster than in the past, but then the run was a bit slower. The overall adjustment of 8:50 is in line with the course rating of 7:03.

A few new records were set: Marino Vanhoenacker improved the overall course record (set last year by David Dellow) by a minute. On the female side Bella Luxford was one second quicker than the swim record but then DNF’d, but Kelsey Withrow finished and now co-owns the swim record with Melissa Ashton. Laura Siddall lay the groundwork for her win with a new bike course record, she improved on Carrie Lester’s 2010 time and posted the first sub-5 bike split in Port Macquarie.

Male Race Results

Before the race, Marino Vanhoenacker seemed to be the athlete to beat. But into T2 Mark Bowstead was leading the race posting the fastest swim and bike split, but a 3:07 marathon saw him drop back into third. Even then Marino had to fight for the win: Luke McKenzie was never more than a few minutes behind, but he wasn’t quite able to close the gap and finished second. Marino won his 18th Ironman title and becomes the first athlete to claim wins in all six continents.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 00:45:57 04:30:55 02:54:12 08:14:37 01:27 US$ 8,000 2000
2 Luke McKenzie AUS 00:46:46 04:33:55 02:53:13 08:18:10 -01:06 US$ 4,000 1600
3 Mark Bowstead NZL 00:45:47 04:29:08 03:07:18 08:26:25 05:15 US$ 3,000 1280
4 Nathan Shearer AUS 00:54:30 04:38:38 02:52:13 08:29:13 -16:42 US$ 2,500 960
5 Paul Ambrose AUS 00:46:42 04:34:17 03:05:00 08:29:37 -11:00 US$ 1,500 720
6 Dougal Allan NZL 00:52:45 04:38:46 02:59:16 08:34:45 14:22 US$ 1,000 540
7 Mitchell Robins AUS 00:46:41 04:54:26 02:57:23 08:42:49 n/a   405
8 Levi Maxwell AUS 00:51:12 04:48:11 03:06:51 08:49:25 04:08   305
9 Jarrod Harvey AUS 00:51:39 04:52:30 03:09:33 08:58:12 n/a   230
10 Bryce McMaster NZL 00:52:40 06:01:01 04:13:21 11:12:37 1:01:47   170
  Casey Munro AUS 00:45:50 04:45:04   DNF      
  David Dellow AUS 00:45:53     DNF      
  Lachlan Kerin AUS 00:46:42     DNF      

Female Race Results

After a slower-than-normal swim, defending champion Laura Siddall had her work cut out: She was seven minutes behind rookie Kelsey Withrow and Annabel Luxford. It tool Laura more 140k catch to Annabel who was shortly after forced to drop out with asthma (worsened by a cold). After that it was clear sailing for Laura: After posting a new bike course record she also had the fastest run of the day, claiming her third Ironman title with a gap of more than 20 minutes to Melanie Burke in second and Kelsey Withrow in third.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Laura Siddall GBR 00:55:48 04:56:12 03:10:21 09:05:58 -05:17 US$ 8,000 2000
2 Melanie Burke NZL 01:00:14 05:10:45 03:14:33 09:29:49 -12:19 US$ 4,000 1600
3 Kelsey Withrow USA 00:48:42 05:27:09 03:23:11 09:44:59 n/a US$ 3,000 1280
4 Els Visser NED 00:55:50 05:11:49 03:44:53 09:56:31 n/a US$ 2,500 960
5 Renee Kiley AUS 00:57:52 05:17:54 03:36:20 09:58:13 n/a US$ 1,500 720
6 Jessica Mitchell AUS 01:00:13 05:25:08 03:27:09 09:58:25 03:37 US$ 1,000 540
7 Kierra Sansome AUS 01:00:54 05:53:10 03:33:12 10:32:40 n/a   405
  Annabel Luxford AUS 00:48:41     DNF      

Kona Qualifying Implications

As a P-2000 race, IM Australia didn’t produce too many changes, here’s a look at the athletes in the running for a slot:

  • Laura Siddall is now safe for a July slot.
  • On the male side, both Luke McKenzie and Marino Vanhoenacker are “in the bubble”. I’m not sure if Marino wants to do another Kona race (last year he declined his slot). 
  • Dougal Allan will need about 800 more points, he’s in my “close” category.
  • Annabel Luxford already had enough points, but she still needs an Ironman finish. I hope she recovers quickly from her asthma, and it’s not too late to register for IM Cairns in June.

70.3 St. George (May 6th) – Top Seeded Athletes

This weekend there’s the on of the highlights of the 70.3 season: 7.3 St. George is the North American Championship and always attracts a large and strong field. On the male side we the next edition of “Lionel vs. Germany”, while the female side has Heather Wurtele aiming for her third St. George title.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2014 Jan Frodeno (GER) 03:45:21 Meredith Kessler (USA) 04:11:53
2015 Tim Don (GBR) 03:51:56 Heather Wurtele (CAN) 04:17:58
2016 Lionel Sanders (CAN) 03:48:18 Heather Wurtele (CAN) 04:16:48
2017 Alistair Brownlee (GBR) 03:41:58 Holly Lawrence (GBR) 04:12:07

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Alistair Brownlee GBR 00:23:18 02:01:39 01:14:49 03:41:58
2 Lionel Sanders CAN 00:26:25 02:01:24 01:12:19 03:42:31
3 Sebastian Kienle GER 00:25:23 02:01:53 01:16:10 03:46:20

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Holly Lawrence GBR 00:24:56 02:17:46 01:26:57 04:12:07
2 Jeanni Seymour ZAF 00:25:03 02:25:00 01:22:36 04:15:12
3 Ellie Salthouse AUS 00:24:59 02:25:40 01:28:25 04:22:25

KPR points and Prize Money

70.3 St. George is a P-1500 race. It has a total prize purse of 100.000 US$.

Top Seeded Male Race Participants

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Overall
1 1 Lionel Sanders CAN 03:47:09 03:49:26 00:26:25 02:04:22 02:34:17 01:12:52 2
2 2 Sebastian Kienle GER 03:48:32 03:50:20 00:25:24 02:04:57 02:33:50 01:14:42 4
3 6 Sam Appleton AUS 03:53:05 03:55:26 00:23:29 02:08:52 02:35:52 01:17:13 11
4 4 Joe Gambles AUS 03:53:27 03:56:08 00:24:06 02:09:34 02:37:10 01:16:17 15
5 3 Tim Reed AUS 03:53:37 03:55:18 00:23:25 02:12:17 02:39:12 01:14:25 10
6 5 Michael Raelert GER 03:54:17 03:55:31 00:23:19 02:10:02 02:36:50 01:17:27 12
7 9 Michael Weiss AUT 03:55:04 03:58:12 00:27:22 02:12:39 02:43:31 01:11:33 34
8 7 Matt Hanson USA 03:58:09 03:58:44 00:25:59 02:14:36 02:44:05 01:14:04 39
9 10 Trevor Wurtele CAN 03:58:56 04:00:59 00:25:32 02:11:44 02:40:46 01:18:10 55
10 17 Antony Costes FRA 03:59:58 04:06:45 00:23:50 02:11:03 02:38:23 01:21:35 125

Top Seeded Female Race Participants

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Overall
1 35 Heather Wurtele CAN 04:18:33 04:21:06 00:27:15 02:23:47 02:54:32 01:24:01 5
2 36 Meredith Kessler USA 04:20:13 04:27:53 00:25:13 02:25:24 02:54:07 01:26:06 (23)
3 37 Jeanni Seymour ZAF 04:21:57 04:27:26 00:26:06 02:28:19 02:57:56 01:24:01 18
4 39 Alicia Kaye USA 04:23:38 04:25:02 00:25:22 02:25:05 02:53:56 01:29:42 11
5 38 Sarah True USA 04:23:42 04:27:10 00:25:22 02:31:38 03:00:30 01:23:12 16
6 43 Paula Findlay CAN 04:28:36 04:34:01 00:26:10 02:34:38 03:04:19 01:24:17 (55)
7 55 Pamella Oliveira BRA 04:30:06 04:33:01 00:25:23 02:32:12 03:01:05 01:29:01 48
8 52 Kirsty Jahn CAN 04:30:08 04:36:40 00:29:02 02:32:21 03:04:53 01:25:15 70
9 44 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 04:31:38 04:33:07 00:27:09 02:34:48 03:05:27 01:26:11 50
10 42 Katy Evans USA 04:32:47 04:38:40 00:26:24 02:33:30 03:03:24 01:29:23 (82)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Lionel Sanders: 54% (1-1)
  • Sebastian Kienle: 34% (2-1)
  • Sam Appleton: 6% (15-1)
  • Tim Reed: 3% (30-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Jeanni Seymour: 31% (2-1)
  • Heather Wurtele: 30% (2-1)
  • Meredith Kessler: 24% (3-1)
  • Alicia Kaye: 8% (12-1)
  • Sarah True: 7% (13-1)

Ironman France 2018 (June 24th) – Entry List

Update May 21st:

  • Added Manon Genet, Helena Herrero Gomez, Magali Tisseyre (WPRO), Bekim Christensen, Braden Currie, Scott Defilippis, Sebastien Jouffret, Matthew Leeman, Arland Macasieb, Bryan McCrystal, Gwenael Ouilleres (MPRO)
  • Heather Jackson is not on the latest entry list

Male Race Participants

Name Nation KPR points KPR races
Antony Costes FRA 3915 2+2 (540/625)
Boris Stein GER 3600 1+1
TJ Tollakson USA 2575 1+2 (1600/435)
Romain Guillaume FRA 2435 1+1
Andrej Vistica CRO 2240 2+0
Braden Currie NZL 2065 1+2 (340/640)
Frederik Van Lierde BEL 1605 1+1
Giulio Molinari ITA 1410 2+0
Markus Thomschke GER 1390 1+2 (1280/25)
Scott Defilippis USA 825 2+2 (230/50)
Domenico Passuello ITA 770 0+2 (0/20)
Matthew Leeman GBR 720 1+0
Pedro Gomes POR 615 1+2 (540/30)
Albert Moreno Molins ESP 515 1+2 (120/115)
Christian Brader GER 250 1+1
Sebastien Jouffret FRA 230 0+2 (0/115)
Guillaume Lecallier FRA 180 0+1
Robin Pasteur FRA 180 0+1
Mike Schifferle SUI 95 3+0 (25/0)
Bekim Christensen DEN 70 1+0
Mitchell Kibby AUS 50 0+1
Herve Faure FRA 35 0+1
David Bill SUI 30 0+1
Erik-Simon Strijk NED 20 0+1
Romain Babin CHI 8 0+2 (0/3)
Vicenc Castella Serra ESP 5 0+1
Rasmus Fitzner DEN 3 1+0
Victor Del Corral ESP 0 0+0
Aleksander Kochetkov LTU 0 0+0
Arland Macasieb PHI 0 0+0
Bryan McCrystal IRL 0 0+0
Gwenael Ouilleres FRA 0 0+0
Imanol Sagarzazu ESP 0 0+0
Timothy Van Houtem BEL 0 0+0
Diego Van Looy BEL 0 0+0
Morten Banke DEN    
Charles Bouin FRA    

Female Race Participants

Name Nation KPR points KPR races
Heather Jackson * USA 6770 1+2 (5835/435)
Carrie Lester AUS 6390 2+1
Manon Genet FRA 4120 2+1
Lisa Roberts USA 4000 2+0
Jessie Donavan USA 2165 2+1
Corinne Abraham GBR 1280 1+1
Charlotte Morel FRA 1280 1+0
Magali Tisseyre CAN 1280 1+0
Helena Herrero Gomez ESP 120 1+0
Natascha Schmitt GER 0 0+0
Antonina Reznikov ISR    

* Athlete no longer on the latest entry list

Ironman Texas 2018 – Analyzing Results

Course Conditions

As you can see from a quick glimpse at the results, this year’s IM Texas was super-fast. This first impression is also supported by my analysis of athlete’s performances, cross-referencing their times from other courses to IM Texas. Compared to previous editions, the results of Pro athletes this year have been about 12 minutes faster on average than last year. The swim and bike have been pretty normal for IM Texas. Even with Matt Hanson’s winning marathon time of 2:34:39, the run course was on the same course as in previous years, the times may even have been slightly slower.

The discussion on various social media is focused on the bike times. (The bike leg is where the times were much faster than in previous years.) Part of it was from a shortened course, as acknowledged by Ironman Texas on their Facebook page:

NewImage

I’m not sure if this FB post is telling the whole story of the bike course length: By a number of accounts the course was short last year, and the course maps showed that it was shortened even more for this year. However, it is nice that Ironman acknowledges the course was short and not eligible for any records. I will also consider the IM Texas results “invalid” and will not use them for fastest times or performances. (The comparisons between expected and actual times in the tables below are my best effort of analyzing the race.)

But even the shortened bike course is not telling the real story of the fast bike times at IM Texas. By almost all accounts from the race, there was rampant drafting going on during the bike leg, both in the Pro and agegroup ranks. Here are just a few observations from social media about the race:

  • In the briefing, the Pros were told that there likely wouldn’t be any draft marshaling in the second loop of the bike (Tweet by Ray Botelho).
  • Because of the crowding on the bike course, marshalls were pulled off the course during the race (Tweet by Tim Vibrock).
  • The main part of the bike course is an out-and-back on the three-lane Hardy Road. One lane is supposed to be for the out-leg, one for the back-leg and the third lane (the shoulder lane) for marshalls. Apparently this breaks down as soon as the bulk of AGs enters the road, and it’s no longer safe for officials to use the third lane (series of tweets by Kirk Noyes).
  • At least one Pro, Dimity-Lee Duke, abandoned the race when she didn’t want to join in the drafting going on (see her Instagram post).

While there were some crazy fast times on the bike (such as Andy Starykowicz’s 3:55, more than 8 minutes faster than anyone else in the field, or Jen Annett’s 4:25 followed by 4:27s and a 4:29) and also on the run (not only Matt Hanson’s 2:34:39, two sub-3 runs in the female field by Mel Hauschildt and Lesley Smith and also a number of what would have been PRs), the shortened bike course and the drafting make any “what would have been” a pure guessing game.

All in all, it was disappointing to see a Regional Championship provide such a frustrating race for most everyone involved. Of course there is a personal responsibility not to draft, but when there is no effort in enforcing the drafting rules and packs are forming, no one is held to a standard that is expected of Pro athletes (and age groupers as well).

The race organizers worked hard to come up with a course that’s acceptable to all communities involved. But Ironman could always be trusted to provide a good, reliable racing experience, and this year’s IM Texas fell short of that standard. I hope that the organizers will address the issues for future races in Texas.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time (Diff to exp.) Prize Money KPR Points
1 Matt Hanson USA 00:52:31 04:07:27 02:34:39 07:39:25 -26:33 US$ 30,000 4000
2 Ivan Tutukin RUS 00:49:30 04:10:21 02:35:19 07:39:57 -19:10 US$ 15,000 3400
3 Will Clarke GBR 00:49:49 04:09:58 02:40:43 07:45:22 -18:43 US$ 8,000 2890
4 Tim Van Berkel AUS 07:47:43 -08:17 US$ 6,500 2455
5 Jan van Berkel SUI 00:49:28 04:10:14 02:44:17 07:48:40 -16:21 US$ 5,000 2090
6 Brent McMahon CAN 00:49:26 04:10:26 02:44:52 07:49:49 02:26 US$ 3,500 1670
7 Ruedi Wild SUI 00:49:22 04:10:22 02:45:00 07:50:19 -08:32 US$ 2,500 1335
8 Andrew Starykowicz USA 00:49:27 03:54:59 03:00:57 07:50:56 -15:27 US$ 2,000 1070
9 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 00:49:25 04:10:29 02:48:32 07:53:43 -01:29 US$ 1,500 855
10 Johann Ackermann GER 00:49:15 04:03:19 02:59:38 07:57:02 -14:07 US$ 1,000 685
11 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 02:55:00 07:58:45 -11:23 515
12 David Plese SLO 00:54:09 04:13:36 02:47:07 08:00:33 -06:03 385
13 Paul Matthews AUS 00:49:23 04:10:48 03:01:35 08:06:14 03:57 290
14 Matthew Russell USA 00:54:07 04:05:56 03:02:38 08:07:42 03:55 215
15 Matic Modic SLO 00:56:44 04:14:15 02:53:05 08:09:39 -09:08 160
16 Samuel Huerzeler SUI 00:54:47 04:11:48 02:58:13 08:10:43 -06:22 120
17 Kristian Hoegenhaug DEN 00:54:55 04:11:31 02:59:33 08:11:49 16:25 90
18 Daniil Sapunov UKR 00:49:31 04:15:36 03:01:58 08:12:48 -02:55 70
19 Justin Daerr USA 00:52:21 04:19:46 03:01:43 08:19:07 06:50 50
20 Jesse Vondracek USA 00:52:41 04:17:55 03:04:10 08:20:21 -15:42 40
21 Sebastian Najmowicz POL 00:49:33 04:20:47 03:05:55 08:21:51 n/a 25
22 Alexander Chikin RUS 00:56:16 04:19:42 03:03:07 08:25:22 -12:53 25
23 Blake Becker USA 00:58:52 04:21:52 03:02:17 08:28:17 -21:44 25
24 Seppe Odeyn BEL 01:09:15 04:21:15 02:53:41 08:30:07 -07:46 25
25 James Capparell USA 00:49:32 04:21:43 03:15:45 08:32:24 -00:54 25
26 Jozsef Major HUN 00:59:12 04:27:30 03:02:51 08:37:28 20:47 25
27 Raymond Botelho USA 00:58:57 04:20:20 03:17:31 08:43:03 -07:33 25
28 Jordan Monnink CAN 00:56:53 04:33:08 03:06:53 08:43:40 06:41 25
29 James Lubinski USA 01:07:13 04:24:34 03:09:21 08:47:01 03:34 25
30 Mike Schifferle SUI 01:03:43 04:26:35 03:18:31 08:58:03 17:22 25
31 Peter Kotland CZE 00:59:00 04:34:34 03:24:48 09:05:49 -09:12 20
32 Per Bittner GER 00:54:47 04:33:03 03:41:52 09:15:13 1:08:13 20
33 Tripp Hipple USA 00:53:42 04:18:37 03:56:42 09:15:16 58:44 20
34 Max Biessmann USA 00:52:25 04:25:18 03:53:10 09:16:20 -23:30 20
35 Ohad Sinai ISR 01:05:52 04:28:26 03:46:25 09:27:14 -04:17 20
36 Christopher Stock USA 01:09:25 04:31:12 03:59:04 09:50:11 n/a 20
37 Ignacio Rubio Gomez ESP 00:59:20 04:42:53 05:15:08 11:06:53 25:48 20
Michael Fox AUS 00:49:08 04:10:54 DNF
Sean Donnelly GER 00:49:06 04:15:29 DNF
Mikolaj Luft POL 00:53:52 04:16:51 DNF
Trevor Delsaut FRA 00:54:52 04:48:43 DNF

Tim Berkel lost hos timing chip in the swim and his maraton time in the results (2:51) does not correspond to how the race developed. By his own data he swam in the 49-minute group, rode a 4:10 (coming off the bike in 4th place) and then ran a 2:43. Jeremy Jurkiewicz probably also had issues with his chip, I’m not sure how accurate his marathon time is.

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time (Diff to exp.) Prize Money KPR Points
1 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 00:59:07 04:29:55 02:57:07 08:31:05 -17:16 US$ 30,000 4000
2 Jodie Robertson USA 01:00:42 04:27:30 03:08:52 08:43:16 -14:10 US$ 15,000 3400
3 Lesley Smith USA 00:57:50 04:39:56 02:58:47 08:43:51 -23:04 US$ 8,000 2890
4 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:56:05 04:33:11 03:11:20 08:45:47 -04:10 US$ 6,500 2455
5 Sara Svensk SWE 00:59:33 04:32:33 03:09:53 08:46:49 -19:54 US$ 5,000 2090
6 Meredith Kessler USA 00:53:47 04:34:32 03:13:27 08:47:44 03:37 US$ 3,500 1670
7 Jen Annett CAN 01:02:23 04:25:10 03:16:52 08:49:27 -12:11 US$ 2,500 1335
8 Kimberley Morrison GBR 00:56:23 04:27:45 03:21:54 08:50:59 -13:47 US$ 2,000 1070
9 Tine Deckers BEL 00:59:29 04:35:01 03:17:18 08:57:34 02:50 US$ 1,500 855
10 Darbi Roberts USA 00:56:19 04:41:32 03:15:27 08:59:03 -19:31 US$ 1,000 685
11 Caroline Gregory USA 00:59:31 04:43:00 03:17:18 09:05:06 -1:00:29 515
12 Helena Kotopulu CZE 01:12:20 04:45:39 03:09:55 09:15:02 -08:51 385
13 Lauren Brandon USA 00:48:19 04:38:15 03:48:20 09:20:16 19:18 290
14 Kelly Fillnow USA 01:07:56 04:46:43 03:20:33 09:21:26 -04:56 215
15 Robyn Hardage CAN 01:03:18 04:50:34 03:22:02 09:22:13 -14:54 160
16 Amanda Wendorff USA 01:02:26 04:34:46 03:56:19 09:39:51 09:49 120
17 Kimberly Goodell USA 01:03:46 04:52:41 03:40:03 09:43:13 07:45 90
Jocelyn McCauley USA 00:56:51 04:32:12 DNF
Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 00:59:39 DNF
Helena Herrero Gomez ESP 01:03:45 DNF
Ashley Paulson USA 01:19:00 DNF

Kona Qualifying Implications

Here are the top men and their Kona qualifying chances:

  • Automatic Qualifier: Matt Hanson, Frederik Van Lierde (validated his AQ as former Kona champion)
  • Safe: Tim Van Berkel, Ivan Tutukin and Andy Starykowicz
  • On the Bubble: Brent McMahon, Jan Van Berkel
  • Close (but more points needed): Ruedi Wild, Will Clarke, Jeremy Jurkiewicz

And a look at the females and their race to Kona:

  • Automatic Qualifier: Mel Hauschildt
  • Safe: Lesley Smith
  • On the Bubble: Tine Deckers
  • Close (but more points needed): Jodie Robertson, Michelle Vesterby

Challenge Taiwan 2018 – Analyzing Results

Male Race ResultsCHTaiwan

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money
1 Dylan McNeice NZL 00:48:34 04:21:32 03:01:10 08:16:56 -27:54 US$ 6,600
2 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:52:03 04:27:16 02:57:16 08:22:11 -05:02 US$ 4,000
3 Luke Bell AUS 00:48:39 04:21:34 03:12:28 08:28:18 -06:34 US$ 2,100
4 Till Schramm GER 00:59:49 04:37:42 03:24:08 09:07:52 04:01 US$ 1,300
5 Sam Hsieh TWN 00:51:05 04:38:37 04:09:17 09:45:03 n/a US$ 1,000
  Christian Altstadt GER 00:56:31     DNF    

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money
1 Julia Grant NZL 01:01:44 05:05:57 03:24:16 09:38:31 -24:10 US$ 6,600
2 Alyssa Godesky USA 01:01:41 05:05:47 03:35:42 09:49:54 -00:38 US$ 4,000
3 Shiao-yu Li TWN 01:08:25 05:11:19 03:39:36 10:07:18 10:08 US$ 2,100
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