Author Archive | Thorsten

Ironman Texas 2018 (April 28th) – Seedings

IMTexasLogoApril 19th: The latest startlist has a few withdrawals: Marc Duelsen, Michael Alonso McKernan, Linsey Corbin, Angela Naeth, Rachel McBride, and Caroline Livesey. In addition, Susie Cheetham announced she won’t do the double just two weeks after Ironman South Africa.

April 20th: Joe Skipper is still on the “official list”, but he tweeted that he won’t be racing. There was also another new Ironman list with a few more withdrawals: Cameron Wurf, Philip Koutny, Gregory Close, Sam Long, Derek Garcia, and Andi Giglmayr.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:08:20 Catriona Morrison (GBR) 08:57:51
2012 Jordan Rapp (USA) 08:10:44 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 08:54:58
2013 Paul Amey (GBR) 08:25:06 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 08:49:14
2014 Bevan Docherty (NZL) 08:09:37 Kelly Williamson (USA) 08:54:42
2015 Matt Hanson (USA) 08:07:03 Angela Naeth (CAN) 08:55:19
2016 Patrick Lange (GER) 07:13:13 Julia Gajer (GER) 08:11:01
2017 Matt Hanson (USA) 07:52:44 Jodie Robertson (USA) 08:56:32

Last Year’s TOP 3

You can find the full results and my analysis of IM Texas 2017 here.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Matt Hanson USA 00:51:46 04:13:53 02:42:07 07:52:44
2 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:53:34 04:14:40 02:43:28 07:56:21
3 Tyler Butterfield BMU 00:49:08 04:15:20 02:49:00 07:58:29

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jodie Robertson USA 01:02:31 04:43:45 03:03:41 08:56:32
2 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 00:57:57 04:53:47 03:02:27 08:59:31
3 Maja Stage Nielsen DEN 01:01:02 04:47:31 03:07:45 09:01:00

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:52:44 Matt Hanson 2017-04-22
Swim overall 00:46:20 John Flanagan 2011-05-21
Bike overall 04:01:14 Andrew Starykowicz 2017-04-22
Run overall 02:41:38 Matt Hanson 2014-05-17
Total female 08:49:14 Rachel Joyce 2013-05-18
Swim female 00:48:52 Lauren Brandon 2017-04-22
Bike female 04:40:39 Corinne Abraham 2015-05-16
Run female 02:51:46 Caitlin Snow 2012-05-19

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Texas is 13:00.

Race Adjustments for IM Texas

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 11:41 -02:11 19:12 -02:48 41 11:41 -02:11 19:12 -02:48
2012 14:02 -00:50 15:23 03:36 27 12:51 -01:30 17:18 00:24
2013 07:03 -01:11 16:44 01:16 30 of 46 10:55 -01:24 17:06 00:41
2014 17:00 01:02 17:51 03:54 44 of 55 12:26 -00:47 17:17 01:30
2015 09:29 -01:19 19:29 -04:34 33 of 52 11:51 -00:54 17:44 00:17
2017 18:46 -00:40 22:40 05:25 42 of 56 13:00 -00:52 18:33 01:08

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Texas is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 34% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 5 Brent McMahon CAN 08:03:00 08:14:00 00:49:17 04:19:42 05:13:59 02:49:01 64% +0% -36% (11) 7
2 1 Matt Hanson * USA 08:05:04 08:31:59 00:52:47 04:20:26 05:18:13 02:46:51 24% +33% -43% (13) 49
3 14 Will Clarke GBR 08:08:06 08:30:27 00:49:45 04:26:32 05:21:17 02:46:49 29% +45% -26% (7) 40
4 2 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:08:51 08:27:03 00:49:31 04:17:57 05:12:28 02:56:23 73% +5% -22% (25) 28
5 20 Joe Skipper GBR 08:09:18 08:25:41 00:54:21 04:17:45 05:17:06 02:52:12 62% +13% -25% (20) 25
6 19 Ivan Tutukin RUS 08:10:34 08:32:07 00:49:12 04:33:19 05:27:30 02:43:04 25% +0% -75% (3) (51)
7 4 Tim Van Berkel AUS 08:11:48 08:22:30 00:49:51 04:25:32 05:20:23 02:51:25 79% +12% -9% (23) 18
8 9 Matthew Russell USA 08:13:08 08:41:41 00:55:57 04:19:27 05:20:24 02:52:44 41% +31% -29% (44) (82)
9 42 Kristian Hoegenhaug DEN 08:13:35 08:38:30 00:57:35 04:11:35 05:14:10 02:59:25 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (71)
10 7 Ruedi Wild SUI 08:14:45 08:25:29 00:50:31 04:26:45 05:22:16 02:52:29 75% +14% -11% (6) 24
11 10 David Plese SLO 08:16:28 08:38:57 00:54:35 04:20:58 05:20:33 02:55:55 76% +8% -16% (23) 72
12 25 Marc Duelsen GER 08:17:18 08:34:05 00:51:05 04:25:49 05:21:54 02:55:24 89% +0% -11% (11) 56
13 16 Paul Matthews AUS 08:17:33 08:50:31 00:48:31 04:25:44 05:19:15 02:58:18 26% +0% -74% (15) (110)
14 18 Jan Van Berkel SUI 08:17:50 08:31:34 00:50:34 04:25:08 05:20:43 02:57:07 69% +14% -17% (17) 44
15 8 Cameron Wurf * AUS 08:18:14 08:32:00 00:51:48 04:09:53 05:06:41 03:11:33 45% +43% -12% (9) 50
16 40 Andreas Giglmayr AUT 08:18:14 08:48:37 00:48:44 04:17:21 05:11:05 03:07:09 38% +0% -62% (2) (101)
17 15 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 08:23:02 08:37:15 00:49:42 04:29:24 05:24:06 02:58:56 86% +0% -14% (15) 67
18 38 Michael Fox AUS 08:23:35 08:37:06 00:48:36 04:29:53 05:23:30 03:00:05 88% +12% -0% (6) 65
19 3 Andrew Starykowicz USA 08:25:27 08:33:03 00:49:46 04:05:43 05:00:28 03:24:59 20% +48% -32% (10) 54
20 29 Johann Ackermann GER 08:25:43 08:43:21 00:49:40 04:23:27 05:18:08 03:07:35 64% +0% -36% (9) (85)
21 23 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:25:53 08:41:17 00:53:37 04:30:03 05:28:40 02:57:13 34% +18% -48% (28) 80
22 12 Justin Daerr USA 08:26:14 08:40:33 00:53:56 04:28:17 05:27:12 02:59:02 74% +3% -22% (34) 77
23 33 Per Bittner GER 08:26:19 08:44:57 00:50:59 04:28:06 05:24:05 03:02:14 49% +6% -45% (25) 87
24 30 Michael Alonso ESP 08:28:04 08:54:35 00:55:58 04:20:06 05:21:04 03:07:00 0% +42% -58% (3) (122)
25 17 Daniil Sapunov UKR 08:29:20 08:59:29 00:50:00 04:35:46 05:30:46 02:58:34 62% +9% -29% (9) 144
26 26 Samuel Huerzeler SUI 08:29:51 08:50:07 00:54:04 04:31:51 05:30:56 02:58:55 55% +45% -0% (10) 106
27 11 Jozsef Major HUN 08:30:41 08:46:00 01:00:25 04:27:16 05:32:40 02:58:01 79% +13% -8% (35) 92
28 46 Matic Modic SLO 08:31:43 08:57:06 00:57:18 04:31:55 05:34:13 02:57:30 38% +10% -52% (13) 135
29 22 Philipp Koutny * SUI 08:33:07 08:56:30 00:52:19 04:25:45 05:23:05 03:10:02 46% +0% -54% (7) 132
30 24 Gregory Close USA 08:36:29 09:02:36 00:58:48 04:30:21 05:34:09 03:02:20 20% +35% -45% (11) 157
31 41 Tripp Hipple USA 08:37:25 08:58:36 00:54:06 04:28:35 05:27:41 03:09:44 70% +0% -30% (4) 140
32 28 Sam Long USA 08:41:48 08:57:30 00:57:29 04:30:39 05:33:09 03:08:39 77% +0% -23% (5) 137
33 39 Derek Garcia USA 08:42:29 09:00:55 00:54:52 04:30:57 05:30:49 03:11:40 52% +13% -35% (12) (151)
34 35 James Capparell USA 08:48:54 09:07:45 00:49:30 04:36:21 05:30:51 03:18:03 100% +0% -0% (3) 169
35 27 Jesse Vondracek USA 08:49:54 09:09:49 00:55:09 04:37:39 05:37:48 03:12:06 78% +21% -2% (21) 178
36 44 Colin Laughery USA 08:50:19 09:16:13 00:56:36 04:36:34 05:38:10 03:12:09 73% +27% -0% (9) 196
37 51 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:51:53 09:11:10 01:01:45 04:36:31 05:43:15 03:08:38 86% +7% -6% (70) 187
38 47 Jordan Monnink CAN 08:52:37 09:17:38 00:53:59 04:39:05 05:38:04 03:14:33 48% +0% -52% (2) (202)
39 21 Mikolaj Luft POL 08:56:14 09:17:02 00:55:30 04:30:00 05:30:31 03:25:43 69% +0% -31% (3) (199)
40 49 Seppe Odeyn BEL 08:56:17 09:23:21 01:08:06 04:44:48 05:57:54 02:58:23 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (219)
41 36 Alexander Chikin RUS 08:56:22 09:23:26 00:57:02 04:34:06 05:36:08 03:20:14 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (220)
42 31 Blake Becker USA 08:56:23 09:18:48 00:58:16 04:38:31 05:41:48 03:14:35 1% +61% -38% (23) 204
43 45 James Lubinski USA 08:58:32 09:18:50 01:04:45 04:41:47 05:51:32 03:07:00 61% +25% -14% (22) 205
44 37 Sean Donnelly GER 09:00:24 09:57:50 00:49:18 04:36:03 05:30:21 03:30:03 5% +6% -90% (4) (273)
45 34 Raymond Botelho USA 09:03:52 09:25:50 00:56:07 04:30:24 05:31:30 03:32:22 44% +13% -43% (17) 224
46 52 Matthew Shanks USA 09:13:42 09:37:00 01:00:50 04:55:39 06:01:29 03:12:13 56% +11% -33% (8) 251
47 43 Peter Kotland CZE 09:26:41 09:51:47 01:01:21 04:49:59 05:56:20 03:30:21 80% +12% -8% (27) 267
48 53 Ohad Sinai ISR 09:44:54 10:09:42 01:02:05 05:02:24 06:09:28 03:35:26 100% +0% -0% (2) 278
49 32 Max Biessmann USA 09:59:37 10:36:10 00:53:54 04:46:02 05:44:56 04:14:41 34% +0% -66% (2) (292)
50 50 Ignacio Rubio Gomez ESP 11:04:51 11:39:26 00:54:38 05:25:24 06:25:02 04:39:49 36% +0% -64% (3) (296)
48 Sebastian Najmowicz POL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
54 Christopher Stock USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days or IM South Africa (two weeks before).

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 34% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 66 Angela Naeth * CAN 08:55:58 09:39:17 00:59:44 04:43:35 05:48:19 03:07:39 16% +28% -56% (6) (41)
2 63 Meredith Kessler * USA 09:02:07 09:14:01 00:51:14 04:49:47 05:46:01 03:16:06 69% +6% -25% (27) (5)
3 69 Susie Cheetham * GBR 09:02:14 09:14:05 00:56:38 04:53:08 05:54:47 03:07:27 87% +0% -13% (8) 5
4 62 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 09:04:35 09:17:18 00:58:03 04:51:42 05:54:46 03:09:49 73% +8% -19% (6) 7
5 61 Jodie Robertson USA 09:05:03 09:44:16 01:03:04 04:48:33 05:56:38 03:08:25 17% +23% -60% (4) (50)
6 65 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:07:24 09:19:44 00:53:59 04:50:35 05:49:34 03:17:50 78% +1% -20% (24) 9
7 64 Linsey Corbin * USA 09:07:44 09:19:59 00:59:49 04:54:06 05:58:56 03:08:48 95% +5% -0% (24) 10
8 74 Jen Annett CAN 09:11:03 09:37:20 01:03:17 04:43:54 05:52:11 03:18:52 27% +64% -9% (7) 38
9 67 Jocelyn McCauley USA 09:11:06 09:25:15 00:56:26 04:56:25 05:57:51 03:13:15 45% +41% -14% (9) 23
10 70 Tine Deckers BEL 09:11:34 09:25:11 00:59:49 04:48:42 05:53:30 03:18:04 75% +3% -22% (23) 22
11 72 Lauren Brandon USA 09:16:00 09:32:42 00:49:05 04:53:49 05:47:54 03:28:06 62% +0% -38% (5) 32
12 73 Annah Watkinson * ZAF 09:23:23 09:48:01 01:00:23 04:56:41 06:02:04 03:21:19 58% +0% -42% (6) 56
13 76 Rachel McBride * CAN 09:23:39 09:41:52 00:54:27 04:47:38 05:47:06 03:36:33 100% +0% -0% (3) 48
14 71 Kimberley Morrison GBR 09:23:49 09:52:16 00:55:28 04:44:42 05:45:10 03:38:39 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (64)
15 88 Sara Svensk SWE 09:25:29 09:59:57 01:01:54 05:06:23 06:13:17 03:12:12 37% +0% -63% (2) (74)
16 77 Lesley Smith USA 09:25:31 09:54:03 00:58:30 05:10:09 06:13:39 03:11:52 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (68)
17 75 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 09:26:25 09:39:24 01:01:27 04:58:33 06:04:59 03:21:26 78% +10% -12% (14) 42
18 68 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:26:51 09:47:22 00:54:03 04:51:57 05:51:00 03:35:51 43% +13% -44% (28) 53
19 85 Caroline Livesey GBR 09:31:33 10:08:18 01:01:32 04:58:43 06:05:15 03:26:18 51% +14% -35% (10) 93
20 87 Darbi Roberts USA 09:37:06 10:06:57 00:55:32 05:06:41 06:07:14 03:29:52 32% +0% -68% (10) (90)
21 78 Kelly Fillnow USA 09:40:43 10:04:09 01:06:28 05:07:55 06:19:23 03:21:20 82% +5% -13% (15) 83
22 84 Helena Kotopulu CZE 09:43:53 10:13:21 01:12:17 05:07:41 06:24:58 03:18:55 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (106)
23 86 Ashley Paulson * USA 09:43:55 10:06:52 01:14:27 05:13:53 06:33:20 03:10:35 72% +16% -12% (8) 89
24 89 Amanda Wendorff USA 09:49:35 10:15:00 01:00:06 05:03:42 06:08:48 03:40:47 76% +0% -24% (3) (107)
25 79 Anne Basso FRA 09:54:38 10:14:51 00:59:08 05:14:28 06:18:36 03:36:02 65% +5% -30% (19) 106
26 89 Kimberly Goodell USA 09:56:49 10:26:56 01:04:13 05:20:40 06:29:52 03:26:57 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (122)
27 82 Robyn Hardage CAN 09:56:56 10:21:12 01:05:11 05:14:25 06:24:37 03:32:19 100% +0% -0% (2) (114)
28 83 Helena Herrero Gomez ESP 10:06:21 10:33:25 01:02:50 05:32:00 06:39:51 03:26:30 42% +0% -58% (10) 131
29 81 Caroline Gregory USA 10:09:10 10:42:50 00:58:44 05:27:05 06:30:49 03:38:21 51% +4% -45% (15) 139

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days or IM South Africa (two weeks before).

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Matt Hanson: 33% (2-1)
  • Brent McMahon: 19% (4-1)
  • Joe Skipper: 15% (5-1)
  • Will Clarke: 10% (9-1)
  • Frederik Van Lierde: 8% (11-1)
  • Matthew Russell: 6% (15-1)

Female Race Participants

Even though I had left Susie Cheetham and Linsey Corbin out of my original odds, there have been a few more high-level withdrawals, with significant changes of the winning odds on the female side:

  • Angela Naeth: 46% (1-1)
  • Jodie Robertson: 16% (5-1) 31% (2-1)
  • Meredith Kessler: 14% (6-1) 25% (3-1)
  • Jocelyn McCauley: 7% (13-1) 14% (6-1)
  • Melissa Hauschildt: 6% (16-1) 12% (7-1)
  • Michelle Vesterby: 8% (12-1)
  • Jen Annett: 5% (20-1)
0

Top Seeds for 70.3 California & 70.3 Texas

Oceanside70.3 California on April 7, 2018

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Lionel Sanders CAN 00:25:20 02:05:42 01:14:06 03:50:04
2 Chris Leiferman USA 00:25:35 02:10:31 01:12:12 03:53:15
3 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:25:47 02:14:08 01:13:08 03:57:49

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Holly Lawrence GBR 00:25:01 02:21:40 01:22:16 04:14:18
2 Ellie Salthouse AUS 00:25:39 02:27:32 01:23:59 04:23:21
3 Heather Wurtele CAN 00:26:15 02:26:31 01:26:55 04:25:22

KPR points and Prize Money

70.3 California is a P-750 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Top Male Seeds

#
Bib
Name
Nat
Expected
Rating
ESwim
EBike
ET2
ERun
Overall
1 1 Lionel Sanders CAN 03:49:03 03:49:39 00:26:16 02:06:06 02:35:51 01:13:12 3
2 2 Jan Frodeno GER 03:49:22 03:47:10 00:22:49 02:11:22 02:37:40 01:11:42 1
3 6 Sam Appleton AUS 03:53:21 03:55:26 00:23:25 02:10:16 02:37:10 01:16:11 11
4 3 Tim Reed AUS 03:54:30 03:55:21 00:23:17 02:13:47 02:40:34 01:13:56 10
5 8 Jesse Thomas USA 03:56:20 03:57:34 00:25:41 02:11:42 02:40:52 01:15:28 27
6 4 Chris Leiferman USA 03:56:31 04:04:53 00:25:48 02:12:12 02:41:30 01:15:01 (90)
7 12 Rodolphe Von Berg USA 03:56:33 03:58:31 00:23:30 02:13:34 02:40:34 01:15:59 34
8 7 Joe Gambles AUS 03:56:40 03:56:08 00:24:11 02:12:14 02:39:55 01:16:45 15
9 10 David McNamee GBR 03:58:03 03:58:07 00:23:37 02:15:56 02:43:03 01:15:00 31
10 9 Igor Amorelli BRA 03:58:18 03:58:40 00:23:36 02:10:01 02:37:07 01:21:11 37

Top Female Seeds

#
Bib
Name
Nat
Expected
Rating
ESwim
EBike
ET2
ERun
Overall
1 55 Anne Haug GER 04:13:30 04:15:53 00:26:04 02:26:37 02:56:11 01:17:19 2
2 51 Holly Lawrence GBR 04:15:26 04:18:35 00:24:50 02:22:24 02:50:44 01:24:42 3
3 52 Heather Jackson USA 04:21:21 04:23:59 00:27:53 02:25:57 02:57:19 01:24:02 9
4 56 Sarah True USA 04:24:35 04:27:33 00:25:24 02:33:03 03:01:56 01:22:39 18
5 53 Jeanni Seymour ZAF 04:24:42 04:27:04 00:26:24 02:30:36 03:00:30 01:24:12 15
6 64 Paula Findlay CAN 04:27:29 04:35:02 00:26:22 02:35:35 03:05:26 01:22:03 (59)
7 54 Carrie Lester AUS 04:28:19 04:28:36 00:26:42 02:28:36 02:58:48 01:29:31 24
8 58 Jennifer Spieldenner USA 04:29:11 04:33:19 00:25:02 02:32:42 03:01:14 01:27:57 49
9 57 Kelsey Withrow USA 04:32:19 04:38:52 00:25:43 02:31:43 03:00:56 01:31:23 81
10 59 Lisa Roberts USA 04:35:48 04:36:25 00:31:45 02:35:50 03:11:05 01:24:43 68

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Lionel Sanders: 52% (1-1)
  • Jan Frodeno: 32% (2-1)
  • Sam Appleton: 8% (11-1)
  • Tim Reed: 5% (21-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Holly Lawrence: 52% (1-1)
  • Anne Haug: 38% (2-1)
  • Heather Jackson: 6% (15-1)
  • Jeanni Seymour: 3% (38-1)

703Texas70.3 Texas on April 8, 2018

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Mauricio Mendez Cruz MEX 00:24:41 02:05:50 01:12:39 03:45:35
2 Timothy O’Donnell USA 00:24:36 02:02:06 01:17:15 03:46:19
3 Rodolphe Von Berg USA 00:24:39 02:05:53 01:16:17 03:49:01

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Kimberley Morrison GBR 00:28:34 02:10:38 01:33:21 04:15:40
2 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 00:28:43 02:22:19 01:24:05 04:18:00
3 Lauren Brandon USA 00:25:31 02:20:36 01:31:25 04:20:28

KPR points and Prize Money

70.3 Texas is a P-500 race. It has a total prize purse of 30.000 US$.

Top Male Seeds

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Overall
1 1 Sebastian Kienle GER 03:42:01 03:50:20 00:26:00 01:58:50 02:28:20 01:13:41 4
2 9 Ben Kanute USA 03:42:01 03:53:10 00:23:33 01:59:45 02:26:47 01:15:14 (7)
3 5 Michael Weiss AUT 03:46:38 03:58:13 00:28:02 02:04:27 02:36:00 01:10:38 32
4 12 Cody Beals CAN 03:47:29 03:59:46 00:26:17 02:03:56 02:33:43 01:13:46 46
5 3 Andrew Starykowicz USA 03:47:36 03:58:44 00:24:32 01:58:07 02:26:08 01:21:28 38
6 15 Ivan Tutukin RUS 03:49:16 04:01:42 00:24:50 02:08:40 02:37:01 01:12:15 63
7 14 Matt Hanson USA 03:49:32 03:59:25 00:26:30 02:07:02 02:37:02 01:12:30 42
8 28 Marc Duelsen GER 03:49:32 04:03:52 00:26:14 02:03:09 02:32:53 01:16:39 77
9 4 Matthew Russell USA 03:50:02 04:01:33 00:27:13 02:01:31 02:32:13 01:17:49 61
10 44 Raul Tejada GTM 03:50:34 04:04:09 00:27:04 02:05:37 02:36:10 01:14:24 84

Top Female Seeds

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Overall
1 53 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 04:09:51 04:19:37 00:29:05 02:16:01 02:48:36 01:21:15 4
2 55 Heather Wurtele CAN 04:10:52 04:20:55 00:27:47 02:16:23 02:47:40 01:23:12 5
3 57 Angela Naeth CAN 04:12:00 04:22:46 00:29:13 02:15:07 02:47:49 01:24:11 7
4 52 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 04:18:17 04:30:36 00:28:36 02:22:56 02:55:02 01:23:15 34
5 51 Kimberley Morrison GBR 04:18:23 04:34:53 00:27:56 02:14:02 02:45:27 01:32:56 56
6 62 Jodie Robertson USA 04:19:05 04:33:02 00:32:39 02:19:44 02:55:53 01:23:12 47
7 59 Haley Chura USA 04:19:19 04:30:07 00:25:12 02:23:47 02:52:28 01:26:51 32
8 56 Linsey Corbin USA 04:19:30 04:30:56 00:29:32 02:20:57 02:53:59 01:25:31 36
9 72 Kirsty Jahn CAN 04:20:12 04:33:56 00:29:37 02:23:34 02:56:41 01:23:31 52
10 58 Emma-Kate Lidbury GBR 04:25:21 04:46:48 00:27:38 02:21:11 02:52:18 01:33:03 154

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Sebastian Kienle: 39% (2-1)
  • Ben Kanute: 26% (3-1)
  • Michael Weiss: 12% (7-1)
  • Andrew Starykowicz: 11% (8-1)
  • Cody Beals: 6% (15-1)
  • Matt Hanson: 3% (30-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Melissa Hauschildt: 47% (1-1)
  • Heather Wurtele: 23% (3-1)
  • Angela Naeth: 17% (5-1)
  • Kimberley Morrison: 7% (13-1)
  • Haley Chura: 2% (60-1)
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Ironman South Africa 2018 (Apr 15th) – Seedings

Analysis of IM South Africa is supported by Neil Cooper. Neil lives in Northern Island but is going to race IM South Africa. While he’s in the country he will also attend his son’s wedding a few days after the race. All the best to Neil and to his son (and his son’s bride!) for the upcoming wedding.

Update March 31st: Michelle Vesterby won’t be racing South Africa, she plans to do IM Texas.

Update April 9th: Nikki Bartlett won’t be able to race, she crashed riding her bike shortly before leaving for South Africa. Quick recovery!

Update April 10th: James Cunnama tweeted that he’ll need more time to build his fitness and won’t be racing this Sunday.

IMSA_LogoPrevious Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2006 Gerrit Schellens (BEL) 08:36:06 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:46:38
2007 Gerrit Schellens (BEL) 08:33:05 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:22:01
2008 Stephen Bayliss (GBR) 08:18:23 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:27:48
2009 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:17:32 Lucie Zelenkova (CZE) 09:16:32
2010 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:23:28 Sonja Tajsich (GER) 09:16:55
2011 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:05:36 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:33:56
2012 Clemente Alonso McKernan (ESP) 08:34:45 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:47:10
2013 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:11:24 Jessie Donavan (USA) 09:10:58
2014 Nils Frommhold (GER) 08:26:07 Simone Braendli (SUI) 09:31:54
2015 Frederik Van Lierde (BEL) 08:16:35 Jodie Cunnama (GBR) 09:26:56
2016 Ben Hoffman (USA) 08:12:37 Kaisa Sali (FIN) 09:06:50
2017 Ben Hoffman (USA) 07:58:40 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 08:47:02

Last Year’s TOP 3

Here’s the link to last year’s full results and analysis.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Ben Hoffman USA 00:49:14 04:22:33 02:42:52 07:58:40
2 Nils Frommhold GER 00:49:05 04:22:31 02:43:43 07:59:30
3 David McNamee GBR 00:49:09 04:28:45 02:45:36 08:07:31

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:53:48 04:50:50 02:57:27 08:47:02
2 Kaisa Sali FIN 00:55:29 04:53:03 02:59:10 08:52:26
3 Susie Cheetham GBR 00:53:56 04:57:43 03:08:36 09:04:49

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:58:40 Ben Hoffman 2017-04-02
Swim overall 00:45:22 Anton Storm 2009-04-05
Bike overall 04:19:41 Raynard Tissink 2011-04-10
Run overall 02:42:52 Ben Hoffman 2017-04-02
Total female 08:33:56 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10
Swim female 00:47:40 Lucie Zelenkova 2009-04-05
Bike female 04:45:23 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10
Run female 02:52:54 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM South Africa is 03:26.

Race Adjustments for IM South Africa

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 01:35 -04:53 -01:53 -00:21 28 01:35 -04:53 -01:53 -00:21
2007 01:16 -08:52 03:31 00:49 33 01:26 -06:52 00:49 00:14
2008 15:32 01:13 11:14 04:15 36 06:08 -04:11 04:18 01:34
2009 17:18 02:09 10:45 -01:03 28 08:55 -02:36 05:54 00:55
2010 09:39 -00:15 08:15 01:15 34 09:04 -02:08 06:23 00:59
2011 15:31 00:13 14:40 01:56 36 10:08 -01:44 07:45 01:08
2012 -11:59 -08:35 -08:23 01:54 28 06:59 -02:43 05:27 01:15
2013 06:23 -01:17 11:20 03:07 36 of 44 06:54 -02:32 06:11 01:29
2014 -12:13 -01:05 -08:46 -02:56 29 of 40 04:47 -02:22 04:32 00:59
2015 -13:45 -00:47 -10:09 -00:57 49 of 61 02:56 -02:13 03:04 00:48
2016 03:32 -02:43 09:06 01:34 42 of 53 02:59 -02:16 03:37 00:52
2017 08:21 -00:05 08:49 01:36 43 of 63 03:26 -02:05 04:03 00:56

KPR points and Prize Money

IM South Africa is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$ and automatic Kona qualifier slots for the winners.

Estimated Time Plan

The following table shows the time plan for the race start and the estimated times for the first athlete to end each leg or finish the race. The estimates are based on the start time and my time estimates, these times can change based on how fast or slow the race ends up:

What Racetime Local Time
Male Pro Start 06:30
Female Pro Start 06:35
Age Group Start 06:45
First Male Out of Water 00:48 07:18
First Female Out of Water 00:49 07:24
First Male End of Bike 05:17 11:47
First Female End of Bike 05:52 12:27
Male Winner 08:08 14:38
Female Winner 09:02 15:37

Port Elizabeth is on South Africa Standard Time, 2 hours ahead of UTC. Here are the conversions to a few other time zones:

  • +8 hours: Melbourne (AEST), race starts at 2:30 pm
  • -1 hour: United Kingdom (BST), race starts at 5:30
  • no change: Central Europe (CEST), race starts at 6:30
  • – 6 hours: US East Coast (EDT), race starts at 12:30am
  • – 9 hours: US West Coast (PDT), race starts at 9:30pm on Saturday

There is going to be live TV coverage for the race in South Africa, so we can expect a live stream on Ironman.com as well.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 25% of a typical Kona field.

#
Bib
Name
Nat
Expected
Rating
ESwim
EBike
ET2
ERun
Consistency
Overall
1 1 Ben Hoffman USA 08:07:57 08:17:42 00:50:31 04:25:44 05:21:15 02:46:42 43% +47% -9% (20) 9
2 4 James Cunnama ZAF 08:15:13 08:20:37 00:50:30 04:26:22 05:21:52 02:53:21 45% +35% -19% (26) 14
3 17 Maurice Clavel GER 08:17:19 08:38:13 00:50:21 04:25:08 05:20:29 02:56:50 47% +0% -53% (2) (70)
4 5 Matt Trautman ZAF 08:21:30 08:25:10 00:52:39 04:33:53 05:31:31 02:49:59 80% +0% -20% (6) (22)
5 8 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:22:45 08:28:02 00:54:05 04:31:45 05:30:51 02:51:54 61% +0% -38% (34) 32
6 2 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:22:49 08:31:55 00:51:03 04:33:43 05:29:47 02:53:02 65% +12% -22% (14) 47
7 18 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 08:25:40 08:27:28 00:53:21 04:38:56 05:37:17 02:48:23 73% +0% -27% (13) 30
8 7 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:26:18 08:28:58 00:50:31 04:29:49 05:25:20 03:00:58 85% +0% -15% (33) 34
9 6 Cameron Wurf AUS 08:27:18 08:32:00 00:51:54 04:20:31 05:17:25 03:09:53 45% +43% -12% (9) 49
10 27 Giulio Molinari ITA 08:28:19 08:31:38 00:50:30 04:31:09 05:26:39 03:01:40 100% +0% -0% (3) 45
11 12 Peru Alfaro ESP 08:28:55 08:45:47 00:49:08 04:38:37 05:32:45 02:56:10 82% +0% -18% (3) (90)
12 32 Evert Scheltinga NED 08:29:43 08:34:05 00:51:01 04:30:56 05:26:57 03:02:46 77% +0% -23% (4) 55
13 3 Josh Amberger AUS 08:32:44 08:35:28 00:48:22 04:28:32 05:21:54 03:10:50 57% +27% -15% (4) 61
14 11 Markus Fachbach GER 08:33:21 08:41:20 00:51:48 04:36:25 05:33:14 03:00:07 60% +1% -40% (22) 80
15 9 Michael Raelert GER 08:33:41 08:54:08 00:49:50 04:40:32 05:35:21 02:58:20 31% +0% -69% (4) (120)
16 15 Alberto Casadei ITA 08:35:41 08:49:52 00:49:49 04:45:52 05:40:41 02:55:00 34% +27% -39% (10) 104
17 20 Pedro Gomes POR 08:37:50 08:43:05 00:53:49 04:44:12 05:43:01 02:54:49 57% +1% -43% (30) 83
18 33 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:40:53 08:49:21 00:55:58 04:38:17 05:39:15 03:01:38 66% +6% -28% (20) 102
19 24 Philipp Koutny SUI 08:42:26 08:56:30 00:52:51 04:36:30 05:34:22 03:08:04 46% +0% -54% (7) 131
20 31 Michael Ruenz GER 08:43:26 08:51:56 00:57:17 04:45:22 05:47:39 02:55:47 68% +0% -32% (12) 113
21 34 Darby Thomas FIN 08:48:38 09:01:05 01:01:14 04:41:43 05:47:57 03:00:41 53% +0% -47% (12) 153
22 28 Hans Muehlbauer GER 09:09:16 09:23:25 00:54:07 05:05:33 06:04:40 03:04:36 45% +0% -55% (10) (220)
23 10 Gerhard De Bruin ZAF 09:16:31 09:29:52 00:57:10 04:57:10 05:59:20 03:17:11 76% +24% -0% (6) (234)
24 21 Christian Jais GER 09:17:05 09:40:35 00:58:45 04:48:30 05:52:15 03:24:50 18% +31% -51% (3) (258)
25 16 Bekim Christensen DEN 09:19:59 09:56:46 01:06:58 04:54:09 06:06:07 03:13:52 11% +0% -89% (3) (273)
26 19 Alain Djouad-Guibert MOR 10:29:54 11:05:02 01:16:02 05:12:41 06:33:42 03:56:12 12% +21% -67% (5) (295)
27 23 Aleksander Kochetkov LTU 10:51:18 11:11:58 01:11:38 05:38:42 06:55:20 03:55:58 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (296)
14 Reece Barclay GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
22 Bruno Joaquim BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
25 Philippe Lamberty LUX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
29 Sebastian Norberg SWE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
30 Artem Parienko RUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 30% of a typical Kona field.

#
Bib
Name
Nat
Expected
Rating
ESwim
EBike
ET2
ERun
Consistency
Overall
1 42 Lucy Charles GBR 09:01:43 09:11:18 00:49:24 04:57:59 05:52:23 03:09:20 21% +79% -0% (3) 4
2 41 Susie Cheetham GBR 09:09:57 09:14:05 00:56:40 05:03:28 06:05:09 03:04:48 87% +0% -13% (8) 5
3 49 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:15:58 09:19:44 00:54:21 05:01:25 06:00:46 03:15:12 78% +1% -20% (24) 8
4 44 Linsey Corbin USA 09:17:40 09:19:59 01:00:21 05:05:40 06:11:01 03:06:39 95% +5% -0% (24) 9
5 63 Maja Stage Nielsen DEN 09:19:55 09:22:13 01:01:00 05:05:09 06:11:09 03:08:46 100% +0% -0% (3) 17
6 46 Katja Konschak GER 09:29:18 09:43:02 00:55:44 05:16:45 06:17:29 03:11:49 42% +38% -20% (20) 49
7 45 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 09:32:33 09:40:34 01:03:11 05:14:29 06:22:40 03:09:53 70% +18% -12% (10) 46
8 59 Rachel McBride CAN 09:33:53 09:41:52 00:55:02 04:59:25 05:59:28 03:34:25 100% +0% -0% (3) 48
9 51 Annah Watkinson ZAF 09:34:21 09:48:01 01:01:00 05:10:37 06:16:36 03:17:45 58% +0% -42% (6) 57
10 47 Nikki Bartlett GBR 09:36:25 09:54:15 01:01:42 05:08:09 06:14:51 03:21:34 69% +0% -31% (4) 69
11 53 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 09:42:08 09:49:02 00:57:36 05:23:14 06:25:50 03:16:18 74% +19% -8% (15) 61
12 58 Carolin Lehrieder GER 09:42:28 10:20:29 00:57:34 05:16:41 06:19:15 03:23:13 20% +7% -73% (11) (115)
13 48 Katharina Grohmann GER 09:42:35 09:53:30 01:13:07 05:10:58 06:29:05 03:13:30 77% +23% -0% (17) 67
14 57 Martina Kunz SUI 09:43:07 09:55:40 01:04:41 05:10:42 06:20:23 03:22:44 100% +0% -0% (2) (71)
15 60 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 09:45:11 09:54:25 01:00:09 05:23:14 06:28:23 03:16:48 72% +16% -12% (8) 70
16 55 Manon Genet FRA 09:48:57 10:00:17 01:00:20 05:08:17 06:13:37 03:35:20 27% +37% -35% (3) (76)
17 56 Corina Hengartner SUI 09:49:20 10:06:37 01:04:04 05:12:30 06:21:34 03:27:46 34% +32% -34% (7) 90
18 62 Lina-Kristin Schink GER 09:57:48 10:15:09 01:12:49 05:22:52 06:40:42 03:17:06 57% +18% -24% (10) 109
19 54 Camille Donat FRA 10:13:45 10:33:13 00:53:28 05:30:11 06:28:40 03:45:05 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (132)
20 61 Charlotte Morel FRA 10:31:25 10:51:28 00:56:38 05:16:24 06:18:01 04:13:24 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (144)
21 52 Patricia Bueno Perez ESP 10:43:15 11:04:27 01:05:57 05:44:27 06:55:25 03:47:50 46% +54% -0% (2) (148)
43 Emma Pallant GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
50 Judith Corachan Vacquero ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Ben Hoffman, the winner of the last two years, is back to defend his title and is the favorite to extend his winning streak in Port Elizabeth. James Cunnama has been chasing a good result in his home IM for a long time, he hopes to win this race since his third place in 2011. Last year he was a disappointing tenth, but since then he’s been superb on the IM distance, including a win at IM Hamburg and a fifth in Kona. Two Australians are expected to play a big role in the race: Josh Amberger will likely lead the race in T1, and Cam Wurf should be the fastest bike rider in the field and should take the lead before T2, maybe even posting a new bike course record (provided the conditions are favorable). But as always in a Regional Championship field, there are lots of candidates for the win and almost the whole field looks to score solid points for a potential Kona qualification.

  • Ben Hoffman: 56% (1-1)
  • James Cunnama: 22% (3-1)
  • Josh Amberger: 6% (17-1)
  • Ronnie Schildknecht: 5% (19-1)
  • Kyle Buckingham: 3% (35-1)
  • Alessandro Degasperi: 2% (55-1)
  • Matt Trautman: 2% (57-1)
  • Cameron Wurf: 2% (65-1)

Female Race Participants

For various reasons, none of the previous champions are on the start list this year, so we are going to have a new winner. The odds are favoring one of the British to come home with the title: Lucy Charles made great improvements in 2017 and looks like a very likely T1 and T2 leader, but Susie Cheetham has also had a very solid 2017 season and has been on the podium in Port Elizabeth in all three of her IM South Africa starts. With Emma Pallant there is another interesting British athlete in the field: The second place finisher at 70.3 Worlds will be racing her first Ironman. Michelle Vesterby (20 IM finishes) and Linsey Corbin (23 IM finishes) are two experienced athletes that also have good winning chances, but there are a lot more athletes on the start list that will look for a good start of the season after their winter training block.

  • Lucy Charles: 44% (1-1)
  • Susie Cheetham: 31% (2-1)
  • Michelle Vesterby: 17% (5-1)
  • Linsey Corbin: 5% (17-1)

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Who to Look for in 2018 Long-distance Racing

With the 2018 season slowly getting started, here’s a list of trends, themes and athletes to look for in Ironman-distance racing. This is not intended to be a comprehensive list, and there isn’t enough space to highlight every “interesting athlete to watch this year”, so apologies in advance to everyone who isn’t mentioned!

Athletes Stepping Up to Ironman Racing

Every year, there are a number of athletes with great success on shorter distance who give racing on the Ironman-distance a try. While there isn’t a guarantee that their racing prowess transfers to the longer distance, the talent that is evident usually makes them very interesting when they line up in their first Ironman race.

For 2018, Emma Pallant (second in 70.3 Championships) and Laura Philipp (third in 70.3 Championships) have announced that they will race an Ironman. Emma is registered for IM South Africa, Laura plans to race IM Germany where she’ll be joined by Anne Haug who has just stepped up to the 70.3 distance in 2017(winning 70.3 Dubai).

2017FemalePodium037.png

Photo: The podium of the 70.3 World Championship in 2017. Daniela Ryf went on to defend her Kona title, Emma Pallant (left) and Laura Philipp (right) will step up to Ironman racing in 2018. (Credit: Donald Miralle for Ironman)

On the male side, there is a huge anticipation of Javier Gomez to race Ironman. (I’m not aware of a firm plan for his first Ironman, but I’m guessing he’ll race one of the Regional Championships in Cairns or Frankfurt. Update March 26th: Spanish media report that Javier will race IM Cairns.) There’s been a lot of talk about the Brownlee brothers stepping up to Ironman racing as well, but for now they seem to be focused on short-course and 70.3 racing rather than Ironman.

All of the athletes mentioned above have scored well in 70.3 races so that just one solid Ironman race will be enough for them to be on the Kona start line – adding even more excitement to the highlight of 2018 Ironman-distance racing.

Returning Super Moms

2016 and 2017 have seen a large number of “triathlon babies” – a lot of high-profile female athletes have taken a break from triathlon to have a baby and then return to long-distance racing. In 2017 we’ve had two “Super Moms” in the Kona Top 10 (Liz Lyles and Jocelyn McCauley), two more in the Kona field that had a baby in 2016 (Rachel Joyce and Sonja Tajsich), and one more “new mom” who won an Ironman but missed Kona qualifying (Eva Wutti).

For the 2018 season there are even more Super Moms returning to racing: Three-time Kona champion Mirinda Carfrae gave birth to daughter Isabelle before Kona 2017, she is already back to training and as a prior Kona champion only needs a validation finish to secure her place on the Kona start line. She has just announced that she will be racing IM Cairns in June.

RinnyTOIzzy

Photo: Mirinda with husband Tim O’Donnell and daughter “Izzy”. Credit: Welcome to the Tim and Rinny Show! on YouTube.

Things will be a lot harder for Meredith Kessler (son Mak born in November), Liz Blatchford (daughter Mahli born in June) and Jodie Cunnama (son Jack born in November), they need a points slot and have to start 2018 racing with no points and only March to July to get to 4.400 points needed for a slot. Caroline Steffen is another “new mom” (son Xander born in late December) who’s back to training, but I’m not aware of any long-distance racing plans for her. (She was focused on the 70.3 distance before she got pregnant.)

The First Sub-4 Bike Leg?

Last year we’ve seen a new “Ironman bike record” when Andy Starykowicz posted a 4:01 bike split at IM Texas. That race was Andy’s return from a horrible bike accident when he was run over by a truck, and he wasn’t sure how well he’d be able to run so he was clearly focused on a good bike split. (His run split was just 3 minutes faster than his bike and is currently the slowest run split for a sub-9 finish overall.) In October, he was more balanced and won IM Louisville with a 4:08 bike and 3:07 run. Another super-biker is Cam Wurf who set a new bike course record at IM Hawaii and who was also able to win Ironman Wales with a solid run.

CamBikeKona

Photo: Cam Wurf leading on the bike in Kona. Credit: Ingo Kutsche

I think that both Andy and Cam (and maybe a few others) would be able to post a sub-4 bike leg if that was their main goal in a race, but their focus is probably more on improving their run and on being competitive for the wins in strong, deep fields. But maybe they think that their best chance to win a race is to get a huge advantage on the bike? In addition, there are almost always athletes that maybe aren’t fully competitive in all legs who opt to go for the glory of a fast bike split. Overall, I’m pretty sure that we’ll see a sub-4 bike in the next few years, but I’m not sure it’ll happen this season quite yet.

Coming Back from Injury

Avoiding or managing injuries plays a big role in long-distance racing. Mel Hauschildt is one of the athletes that’s been forced to deal with injuries on a regular basis. In 2017 she wasn’t able to race before late August, but then was able to finish the ITU Long Distances Worlds, 70.3 Championships and Kona and ended the year by with two wins at 70.3 Western Sydney and IM Western Australia. It would be great to see what she’s able to do when she has two consecutive build periods without having to take a long break for an injury. After winning IM Texas in 2015, Angela Naeth hasn’t been able to complete another Ironman race because of a long string of injuries. Towards the end of 2017 she has returned to 70.3 racing and plans to race an Ironman this spring. (She’s on the entry lists for both IM South Africa and IM Texas.) Angela and her bike strength can hugely impact the race dynamics in any Ironman race she enters.

It’s always unfortunate when athletes qualify for Kona but then are not able to race because of an injury. Last year Tine Holst, Andy Boecherer, Carlos Lopez and Will Clarke had to cancel their Kona start, but are already planning their 2018 season for a return to Kona. Two more athletes made it to Kona with plans to race and had accidents on the Big Island. Tim Don fractured a vertebra just three days before the race and was forced to wear a horribly uncomfortable halo for a few weeks, but by now he’s back to some light training. Matt Russell was hit by a car while in the race and was in critical condition for a couple of days when he lost a lot of blood. While he still sheds the occasional piece of glass, he seems to have been able to make a quick recovery and is on the entry list for IM Texas.

Looking Closer at Regional Trends

There’s always some up-and-down among the big triathlon nations, so here are some predictions of the Ironman racing from the viewpoint of different countries:

(Even) More Germans in Kona

MariceRothThe German men have been dominating in Kona – they have won four titles in a row from 2014 to 2017! But their depth of strong males is almost as impressive, and it seems that even when one athlete runs into problems that there are others ready to step up, such as when Frodo was struggling and Sebi couldn’t quite take the lead on the run, Patrick blasted out another sub-2:40 run to win the race. Also, some new names show up on the Kona radar every year. Two athletes you should follow across this season are Andi Dreitz and Maurice Clavel. Both have stepped up to IM racing in 2017, Andy won IM Italy and Maurice was third at Challenge Roth. Both are targeting Kona for 2018 and are in a good position to qualify with one more solid result: Andi already has 3.435 points and should be able to snag a slot with one more good 70.3 finish, while Maurice with 2.205 points is racing IM South Africa to get the points he needs for a Kona slot.

Photo: Maurice crossing the finish line at Challenge Roth. Credit: TriRating

While the German women were not quite as successful as the men, they have also been able to snag a number of Kona Top10 finishes and Ironman wins in previous years. In 2017, Mareen Hufe was the best German female in Kona, finishing just outside the Top10. With some new faces (such as Laura Philipp mentioned above) the pressure for the established German women will only increase, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see two German ladies in the Kona 2018 Top10.

The Big American Hope to Win Kona

For quite some time the “Big Three” US male athletes have been Ben Hoffman, Tim O’Donnell and Andy Potts. They’ve traded the title of “Best American Kona Finisher”, but late in the race none of them have really been in contention for more than a podium spot. While the US always has a number of good athletes racing the Ironman distance, so far none of them have been able to crack the Top 10 in Kona. (Fun fact: Other than Ben, Tim or Andy, Chris Lieto was the last one to finish in the Top 10 in 2009.) When looking for “new faces” among the US male athletes that haven’t raced Kona before, the only name I could come up with is Kevin Collington. He’s been getting faster under the guidance of Matt Dixon and is now an Ironman winner in a hot and humid race (IM Taiwan 2017). With Ben Kanute there was an American on the podium of the 70.3 Championships, but for now he is still focused on the shorter distances.

So “The Big American Hope to Win Kona” might actually be a woman. There’s a large number of athletes that have already had success in Kona such as Heather Jackson (3rd in 2016, 4th in 2017), Sarah Piampiano (7th in 2015 and 2016 but DNF in 2017) or 10-time Kona veteran Linsey Corbin. In 2017 there were three US women in the Top 10: Heather, Liz Lyles – since retired – and Jocelyn McCauley, at 29 years among the younger female Pros. Lauren Brandon had a strong impact on the swim and bike but then didn’t have the run she was looking for. Considering how dominant Daniely Ryf has been in the last years, a Kona win is not very likely for the US women in 2018, but my money is on the best US female to finish higher than the best male.

Scandinavian Ladies

MajaKonaThe Scandinavian countries Finland, Sweden, Denmark and (to a lesser degree) Norway have a surprisingly deep talent pool for Ironman racing. Kona 2017 had two athletes finish in the Top10 (Patrik Nilsson 8th in the men’s field and Kaisa Sali who was 5th in the female field). Look out especially for the Scandinavian ladies in 2018 racing. Asa Lundstroem, Camilla Pedersen and Michelle Vesterby have raced well in Kona before but didn’t have a good race in Kona – they will be back to show that they can do much better. In addition, there are a number of “new faces”: Maja Stage Nielsen was 12th with the best run outside the Top10, at 29 years she has just completed her first season of long-distance racing. Then there is Helle Frederiksen who stepped up to IM racing after multiple wins on the 70.3 distance. Her first Ironman in Arizona was a sub-9 finish with a new Danish record. The Scandinavian males have been on the podium before (Pauli Kiuru was second in 1993, Torbjorn Sindballe third in 2007), and I think it’s time for the first Scandinavian female on the Kona podium.

Photo: Maja Stage Nielsen is all smiles after crossing the Kona finish line in 12th place. Credit: TriRating

Rule Britannia

The British athletes have had ten wins on the IM-distance in 2017, and they’ve been successful in Kona as well: Lucy Charles was second female, and David McNamee was third on the male side. These days it’s hard to decide if the men or women are more successful. The British ladies have been successful for quite some time: Rachel Joyce, Lucy Gossage, Jodie Cunnama and Susie Cheetham have won Ironman races and finished in the Kona Top10, and there are always new athletes stepping up,  such as Lucy Charles last year.

For quite some time, the British men struggled to keep up, but the 2017 results have been impressive: A huge win by Tim Don at IM Brasil with a new British record of 7:40, and David McNamee was the first British athlete on the Kona podium. In addition there are Will Clarke and Joe Skipper who have posted sub-8 finished but so far haven’t been able to transfer their speed to a good finish in the more tactical race in Kona.

Aussie Aussie

Just a few years back, the Australian men have been dominating in Kona: Between 2007 and 2012 Chris McCormack, Craig Alexander and Pete Jacobs won the title six times in a row for the Aussies. In 2013 Luke McKenzie almost extended that series (he finished second to Frederik Van Lierde), since then each year Tim Van Berkel has been the highest Aussie finisher with just a single Top10 (7th 2014, 36th 2015, 19th 2016 and 15th 2017). In the meantime, the Aussie ladies have continued to do well, Mirinda Carfrae won three times and even when Rinny didn’t race in 2017, there have been three Australian ladies in the Top10 (Sarah Crowley, Carrie Lester and Annabel Luxford).

However, things seem to be improving for the Australian men: Josh Amberger (in his first season of IM racing) was leading after the swim with a big gap, and T2-leader Cam Wurf made a huge impression when he set a new Kona bike course record. Nick Kastelein (even though he DNF’d) has also been racing well on the long-distance, winning IM Switzerland. It’s been a while that an Aussie male has been in the Kona Top10 – something that I expect to change in 2018!

Asians Starting to Close the Gap

The last few paragraphs have focused on the “big triathlon nations”, countries that win the most Ironman races across the globe. Having looked at the fastest 2017 finishing times from the continents (Women and Men),  it’s one continent that lags behind the others: Asia. However, Ironman is now owned by a Chinese company, and they are continuing to expand not only in China but in other Asian countries as well. While we haven’t yet seen a return of Ironman China (held three times between 2008 and 2010 in challenging conditions), there are now four 70.3s in China on the calendar, some even offering Kona slots. Last year, we’ve also seen the first Chinese athlete earning prize money in a 70.3 race (Jiang Zhi Hang who was sixth at 70.3 Xiamen and earned US$ 750). The number of races in other Asian countries is growing as well and it’s only a question of time until the Asian athletes are starting to close the gap to the other continents.

Ironman Australia 2018 (May 6th) – Entry List

Update April 3rd:

  • Added Gurutze Frades Larralde (WPRO) and Clayton Fettell (MPRO)

Update April 12th:

  • Added Jessica Mitchell (WPRO), David Dellow, Casey Munro, Alex Reithmeier, and Marino Vanhoenacker (MPRO)
  • Claire Davis is no longer on the latest version of the start list.

Male Race Participants

Name Nation KPR points KPR races
Dougal Allan NZL 2240 1+1
Luke McKenzie AUS 2115 1+1
Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 1600 1+0
Nathan Shearer AUS 1295 2+1
Casey Munro AUS 600 0+2 (0/255)
Lachlan Kerin AUS 425 0+2 (0/145)
Paul Ambrose AUS 340 1+1
David Dellow AUS 220 0+1
Levi Maxwell AUS 220 0+1
Alex Reithmeier AUS 195 0+1
Mark Bowstead NZL 0 0+0
Clayton Fettell AUS 0 0+0
Jarrod Harvey AUS 0 0+0
Aleksander Kochetkov LTU 0 0+0
Bryce McMaster NZL 0 0+0
Mitchell Robins AUS 0 0+0

Female Race Participants

Name Nation KPR points KPR races
Annabel Luxford AUS 5215 1+1
Laura Siddall GBR 3810 2+1
Kelsey Withrow USA 1280 0+2 (0/640)
Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 740 1+1
Jessica Mitchell AUS 405 1+0
Claire Davis * AUS 400 0+2 (0/180)
Kierra Sansome AUS 370 1+1
Melanie Burke NZL 345 0+1
Els Visser NED 170 1+0
Renee Kiley AUS 65 0+1
Jennifer Lentzke CAN 10 0+1

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