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70.3 Championships 2017 Chattanooga – Analyzing Results

Female Race

Course Conditions

The conditions were relatively slow across all three legs. The way the swim was into and with currents produced some separation and relatively slow times, and the hilly bike and run courses were also pretty slow, making Chattanooga one of the harder 70.3 Championship courses. It’ll be interesting to see if that trend continues tomorrow for the men’s race. 

Female Race Results

Daniela Ryf put on “a clinic” on the bike. After a swim that was pretty much as expected, she had the fastest bike split by far, putting more than five minutes into Laura Philipp and about seven or eight minutes into the rest of the potential podium contenders. After that she had things under control and didn’t have to show what she was able to do on the run (though she still had the third best run split), winning by almost seven minutes. 

After last year’s champion Holly Lawrence dropped out on the bike (“I just didn’t have it today”), the podium spots were wide open. With Emma Pallant (who ran a race best 1:19 run split) and Laura Philipp (who had the second best bike and run splits) two younger European athletes were able to get their first 70.3 Worlds podiums.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:26:26 02:20:20 01:22:05 04:11:59 -10:49 US$ 45,000 3000
2 Emma Pallant GBR 00:27:53 02:28:00 01:19:48 04:18:36 -12:52 US$ 20,000 2700
3 Laura Philipp GER 00:29:47 02:25:45 01:21:12 04:19:40 -07:31 US$ 15,000 2430
4 Sarah True USA 00:25:38 02:30:16 01:22:45 04:21:40 -09:53 US$ 10,000 2185
5 Helle Frederiksen DEN 00:26:23 02:29:07 01:23:41 04:22:12 -03:35 US$ 7,500 1970
6 Annabel Luxford AUS 00:26:35 02:28:53 01:25:38 04:24:04 -02:27 US$ 6,500 1770
7 Heather Wurtele CAN 00:27:52 02:27:34 01:27:00 04:25:39 01:01 US$ 6,000 1595
8 Jeanni Seymour ZAF 00:27:40 02:28:20 01:27:42 04:26:30 -03:39 US$ 5,500 1435
9 Haley Chura USA 00:25:35 02:31:55 01:26:20 04:27:00 -09:09 US$ 5,000 1290
10 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 00:30:22 02:28:22 01:25:31 04:27:36 03:40 US$ 4,500 1165
11 Kirsty Jahn CAN 00:29:49 02:30:59 01:26:00 04:30:39 -06:29   990
12 Lisa Huetthaler AUT 00:29:42 02:25:45 01:32:12 04:30:51 -01:38   840
13 Alicia Kaye USA 00:26:30 02:29:16 01:32:14 04:31:14 03:20   715
14 Natalie Seymour GBR 00:29:39 02:32:02 01:28:27 04:33:29 -08:53   605
15 Lesley Smith USA 00:28:49 02:39:25 01:23:19 04:35:08 00:20   515
16 Stephanie Roy CAN 00:29:46 02:39:38 01:22:53 04:35:49 00:09   415
17 Maria Czesnik POL 00:27:45 02:34:09 01:30:56 04:36:01 -05:52   330
18 Kimberley Morrison GBR 00:29:08 02:27:36 01:36:27 04:36:27 -00:35   265
19 Astrid Stienen GER 00:31:07 02:36:42 01:26:00 04:37:21 -01:24   210
20 Judith Corachan Vacquero ESP 00:27:39 02:37:55 01:29:24 04:38:16 -00:33   170
21 Jen Annett CAN 00:32:01 02:32:22 01:34:29 04:39:55 00:14   125
22 Jennifer Spieldenner USA 00:26:22 02:39:31 01:30:53 04:39:58 05:48   125
23 Agnieszka Jerzyk POL 00:27:55 02:37:54 01:32:06 04:41:01 01:58   125
24 Luiza Cravo BRA 00:31:59 02:42:39 01:27:05 04:42:59 -01:41   125
25 Sue Huse CAN 00:35:01 02:41:32 01:27:26 04:43:59 04:17   125
26 Romina Palacio Balena ARG 00:29:05 02:45:40 01:31:19 04:48:13 02:47   125
27 Ewa Komander POL 00:31:18 02:39:06 01:37:05 04:48:34 04:58   125
28 Lauren Brandon USA 00:25:23 02:36:27 01:45:07 04:50:31 13:35   125
29 Amanda Wendorff USA 00:31:57 02:43:09 01:35:28 04:50:34 01:47   125
30 Monica Juhart AUS 00:29:38 02:42:42 01:39:24 04:55:09 00:08   125
31 Hannah Drewett GBR 00:27:36 02:44:43 01:39:37 04:55:37 -01:42   90
32 Robin Pomeroy USA 00:27:40 02:42:05 01:48:07 05:01:08 17:36   90
33 Carolina Furriela BRA 00:29:06 02:56:12 01:41:51 05:09:17 24:15   90
34 Sarah Lester AUS 00:35:01 02:56:44 01:44:52 05:16:37 12:59   90
  Pamela Tastets CHI 00:29:43 03:14:47   DNF      
  Holly Lawrence GBR 00:27:30     DNF      

Male Race

Course Conditions

Not surprisingly, the conditions men’s race one day after the female race were about as hard, making the Chattanooga course probably the toughest 70.3 Championship course. The tough swim created gaps that had an impact on how the race developed (rather than being closed in the first few miles)- Sebi’s slower swim forced him to ride harder than he probably would have liked  to make up the gap to the main group on the bike. 

Male Race Results

Ben Kanute was leading the race for most of the time, after the fastest swim (together with Javier Gomez), he also put out a huge effort on the bike, posting the second fastest bike split of the day, reaching T2 with a gap of four minutes to the rest of the field. It was clear that he would lose time on the run, but only Javier Gomez was able to catch him – Javier’s race best 1:10 run split allowed him to win his second 70.3 World Championship title. Ben held on for second place, and Tim Don had the second best run of the chase group, his 1:13 gave him a 90 second advantage on Sam Appleton. Fifth place went to Sebastian Kienle who had the best bike split of the day and entered T2 in second place, but then didn’t have the running legs to reclaim his 2012/13 title.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Javier Gomez ESP 00:24:08 02:12:27 01:10:30 03:49:45 -06:48 US$ 45,000 3000
2 Ben Kanute USA 00:24:03 02:08:10 01:16:23 03:51:06 -04:21 US$ 20,000 2700
3 Tim Don GBR 00:24:58 02:11:12 01:13:05 03:52:00 -04:31 US$ 15,000 2430
4 Sam Appleton AUS 00:25:01 02:11:01 01:14:36 03:53:32 -03:26 US$ 10,000 2185
5 Sebastian Kienle GER 00:28:22 02:07:45 01:16:02 03:54:44 00:20 US$ 7,500 1970
6 Maurice Clavel GER 00:25:07 02:11:03 01:16:33 03:55:17 -06:48 US$ 6,500 1770
7 Tyler Butterfield BMU 00:25:18 02:10:40 01:17:26 03:56:20 -02:02 US$ 6,000 1595
8 Andreas Dreitz GER 00:26:39 02:09:16 01:17:14 03:56:33 -02:51 US$ 5,500 1435
9 Ivan Tutukin RUS 00:26:24 02:15:00 01:12:48 03:56:53 -06:25 US$ 5,000 1290
10 Pieter Heemeryck BEL 00:25:27 02:11:02 01:18:26 03:57:36 -05:58 US$ 4,500 1165
11 Matt Chrabot USA 00:25:04 02:11:48 01:20:22 04:00:10 -01:08   990
12 Mauricio Mendez Cruz MEX 00:25:05 02:16:38 01:16:08 04:00:30 01:48   840
13 Rodolphe Von Berg USA 00:25:06 02:16:22 01:17:34 04:01:32 02:54   715
14 Tim Reed AUS 00:25:20 02:16:07 01:17:25 04:01:42 02:51   605
15 Matt Hanson USA 00:27:36 02:17:32 01:13:18 04:01:42 -01:12   515
16 Kevin Collington USA 00:26:31 02:15:04 01:17:45 04:02:08 -00:28   415
17 Reinaldo Colucci BRA 00:25:15 02:15:50 01:19:35 04:03:36 -00:30   330
18 Brent McMahon CAN 00:25:22 02:16:21 01:19:34 04:03:55 02:37   265
19 Jackson Laundry CAN 00:26:36 02:15:03 01:19:54 04:04:16 01:47   210
20 Taylor Reid CAN 00:26:37 02:14:54 01:20:08 04:04:18 -00:07   170
21 Drew Scott USA 00:26:25 02:15:22 01:23:57 04:08:13 02:30   125
22 Jesse Thomas USA 00:28:22 02:20:18 01:16:55 04:08:42 08:08   125
23 Patrick Dirksmeier GER 00:25:40 02:22:41 01:18:50 04:10:17 05:51   125
24 Mario De Elias ARG 00:28:18 02:20:23 01:19:24 04:11:00 02:16   125
25 Ivan Kalashnikov RUS 00:25:07 02:16:44 01:26:48 04:11:20 00:45   125
26 Adam Otstot USA 00:28:23 02:22:31 01:19:33 04:11:29 01:29   125
27 Trevor Wurtele CAN 00:28:17 02:22:25 01:22:37 04:14:20 11:51   125
28 Antoine Jolicoeur Desroches CAN 00:25:09 02:23:57 01:23:30 04:15:22 00:24   125
29 Felipe Van de Wyngard CHI 00:25:20 02:23:41 01:25:29 04:17:30 09:58   125
30 Eric Watson BHR 00:25:45 02:24:20 01:25:44 04:18:58 -04:07   125
31 Alan Carrillo Avila MEX 00:28:44 02:24:30 01:29:12 04:22:26 08:10   90
32 Carlos Javier Quinchara Forero COL 00:25:01 02:27:02 01:31:12 04:24:44 16:23   90
33 Yvan Jarrige FRA 00:25:43 02:26:03 01:50:06 04:43:43 31:00   90

70.3 Championships 2017 in Chattanooga (Sept 9th & 10th) – Seedings

703WorldsUpdate Sept 5th: Updated the list of participants based on the latest information. Only athletes that haven’t withdrawn are shown in the tables.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2006 Craig Alexander (AUS) 03:45:37 Samantha McGlone (CAN) 04:12:58
2007 Andy Potts (USA) 03:42:33 Mirinda Carfrae (AUS) 04:07:25
2008 Terenzo Bozzone (NZL) 03:40:10 Joanna Zeiger (USA) 04:02:48
2009 Michael Raelert (GER) 03:34:04 Julie Dibens (GBR) 03:59:33
2010 Michael Raelert (GER) 03:41:19 Jodie Cunnama (GBR) 04:06:28
2011 Craig Alexander (AUS) 03:54:48 Melissa Hauschildt (AUS) 04:20:55
2012 Sebastian Kienle (GER) 03:54:35 Leanda Cave (GBR) 04:28:05
2013 Sebastian Kienle (GER) 03:54:02 Melissa Hauschildt (AUS) 04:20:07
2014 Javier Gomez (ESP) 03:41:30 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 04:09:19
2015 Jan Frodeno (GER) 03:51:19 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 04:11:34
2016 Tim Reed (AUS) 03:44:14 Holly Lawrence (GBR) 04:09:12

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank  Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Tim Reed AUS 00:22:53 02:06:12 01:11:03 03:44:14
2 Sebastian Kienle GER 00:24:14 02:04:45 01:11:18 03:44:16
3 Ruedi Wild SUI 00:22:47 02:06:28 01:11:07 03:44:40

Female Race Results

Rank  Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Holly Lawrence GBR 00:23:24 02:19:28 01:21:48 04:09:12
2 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 00:26:46 02:21:06 01:18:43 04:11:09
3 Heather Wurtele CAN 00:25:05 02:22:26 01:21:38 04:13:36

Course Records

As the race has been run on a number of different courses, “course records” are a bit shaky and more an indication of “really fast times”.

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 03:34:04 Michael Raelert 2009-11-14
Swim overall 00:21:35 Marko Albert 2009-11-14
Bike overall 01:58:49 Andrew Starykowicz 2009-11-14
Run overall 01:09:05 Michael Raelert 2009-11-14
Total female 03:59:33 Julie Dibens 2009-11-14
Swim female 00:22:54 Lauren Brandon 2016-09-04
Bike female 02:07:15 Julie Dibens 2009-11-14
Run female 01:18:40 Mirinda Carfrae 2007-11-10

KPR points and Prize Money

70.3 World Championship is a P-3000 race. It has a total prize purse of 250.000 US$.

Female Race Participants

The female race will be held on Saturday, September 9th, the start is at 7:30 local time.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. T2 Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Holly Lawrence GBR 04:14:27 04:19:31 00:23:56 02:20:50 02:48:16 01:26:11 2
2 10 Daniela Ryf SUI 04:14:33 04:15:07 00:24:16 02:23:01 02:50:47 01:23:46 1
3 6 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 04:15:11 04:21:55 00:26:58 02:22:27 02:52:54 01:22:17 (5)
4 9 Heather Wurtele CAN 04:17:41 04:20:19 00:25:53 02:23:25 02:52:48 01:24:53 3
5 19 Helle Frederiksen DEN 04:19:08 04:24:09 00:24:21 02:24:47 02:52:38 01:26:30 9
6 2 Annabel Luxford AUS 04:19:53 04:22:14 00:24:22 02:24:35 02:52:27 01:27:26 5
7 3 Laura Philipp GER 04:20:09 04:25:35 00:27:00 02:25:35 02:56:05 01:24:04 12
8 15 Alicia Kaye USA 04:20:39 04:23:30 00:24:18 02:23:55 02:51:43 01:28:56 7
9 38 Heather Jackson USA 04:21:12 04:23:59 00:27:01 02:24:09 02:54:39 01:26:33 8
10 4 Jeanni Seymour ZAF 04:23:00 04:28:29 00:25:37 02:28:30 02:57:37 01:25:23 21
11 8 Emma Pallant GBR 04:25:28 04:29:56 00:26:40 02:31:16 03:01:26 01:24:02 28
12 21 Lisa Huetthaler AUT 04:25:30 04:30:46 00:26:52 02:27:40 02:58:02 01:27:28 32
13 34 Sarah True USA 04:25:46 04:29:58 00:24:18 02:33:01 03:00:49 01:24:57 29
14 12 Lesley Smith USA 04:26:55 04:33:02 00:26:53 02:32:24 03:02:47 01:24:08 45
15 26 Stephanie Roy CAN 04:27:41 04:39:24 00:28:01 02:30:31 03:02:02 01:25:39 82
16 17 Jennifer Spieldenner USA 04:28:21 04:32:18 00:24:18 02:30:46 02:58:33 01:29:48 41
17 18 Lauren Brandon USA 04:28:35 04:34:56 00:23:09 02:25:36 02:52:15 01:36:20 53
18 51 Astrid Stienen GER 04:28:37 04:39:30 00:28:07 02:29:19 03:00:56 01:27:41 84
19 14 Haley Chura USA 04:30:09 04:31:49 00:23:55 02:32:33 02:59:57 01:30:12 38
20 24 Kimberley Morrison GBR 04:30:15 04:35:16 00:26:29 02:23:54 02:53:52 01:36:23 58
21 48 Kirsty Jahn CAN 04:30:15 04:38:14 00:28:05 02:32:55 03:04:29 01:25:46 76
22 50 Jen Annett CAN 04:32:51 04:37:54 00:29:36 02:26:00 02:59:06 01:33:45 74
23 29 Agnieszka Jerzyk POL 04:32:59 04:37:14 00:25:57 02:35:37 03:05:03 01:27:56 69
24 23 Sue Huse CAN 04:33:09 04:37:52 00:31:54 02:31:29 03:06:53 01:26:16 73
25 22 Natalie Seymour GBR 04:34:27 04:40:42 00:28:02 02:33:00 03:04:32 01:29:55 100
26 41 Maria Czesnik POL 04:34:29 04:40:11 00:25:59 02:34:08 03:03:38 01:30:51 93
27 35 Allison Linnell USA 04:34:55 04:42:02 00:28:41 02:29:40 03:01:51 01:33:04 113
28 27 Judith Vaquera ESP 04:36:05 04:42:38 00:26:28 02:34:10 03:04:09 01:31:56 (118)
29 43 Robin Pomeroy USA 04:36:48 04:41:27 00:26:04 02:32:52 03:02:26 01:34:22 106
30 56 Ewa Komander POL 04:37:27 04:41:42 00:27:37 02:31:50 03:02:57 01:34:30 109
31 53 Luiza Cravo BRA 04:38:31 04:42:53 00:28:42 02:34:05 03:06:18 01:32:13 122
32 39 Jenny Schulz GER 04:38:36 04:42:36 00:29:47 02:38:18 03:11:34 01:27:02 117
33 54 Valerie Belanger CAN 04:38:43 04:42:22 00:33:38 02:28:48 03:05:56 01:32:47 115
34 49 Carolina Furriela BRA 04:39:18 04:42:49 00:26:37 02:38:04 03:08:11 01:31:07 119
35 45 Romina Palacio Balena ARG 04:39:40 04:43:34 00:26:19 02:37:56 03:07:45 01:31:55 126
36 55 Amanda Wendorff USA 04:41:45 04:46:54 00:27:46 02:32:50 03:04:06 01:37:39 159
37 37 Pamela Tastets CHI 04:44:50 04:48:38 00:27:53 02:37:42 03:09:06 01:35:44 171
38 42 Monica Juhart AUS 04:45:25 04:53:08 00:26:54 02:38:12 03:08:36 01:36:49 200
39 57 Hannah Drewett GBR 04:51:49 04:55:26 00:24:35 02:44:25 03:12:29 01:39:20 220
40 46 Sarah Lester AUS 04:56:19 05:01:30 00:30:23 02:43:50 03:17:43 01:38:36 257

Male Race Participants

The male race will be held on Sunday, September 10th, the start is at 7:30 local time.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. T2 Exp. Run Overall
1 5 Sebastian Kienle GER 03:48:25 03:50:24 00:24:17 02:05:43 02:33:30 01:14:55 3
2 12 Javier Gomez ESP 03:49:46 03:55:53 00:22:13 02:11:27 02:37:09 01:12:37 10
3 4 Tim Don GBR 03:50:13 03:53:29 00:22:54 02:08:08 02:34:33 01:15:40 4
4 47 Ben Kanute USA 03:51:46 03:57:06 00:22:35 02:07:47 02:33:52 01:17:54 (18)
5 1 Tim Reed AUS 03:51:56 03:55:41 00:22:58 02:09:08 02:35:36 01:16:20 9
6 2 Sam Appleton AUS 03:52:02 03:56:15 00:22:37 02:08:21 02:34:29 01:17:33 13
7 8 Tyler Butterfield BMU 03:52:57 03:55:16 00:23:17 02:08:24 02:35:11 01:17:46 7
8 7 Andreas Dreitz GER 03:53:49 04:01:03 00:23:42 02:07:57 02:35:08 01:18:41 49
9 9 Mauricio Mendez Cruz MEX 03:53:58 03:57:54 00:22:54 02:12:51 02:39:15 01:14:43 23
10 30 Brent McMahon CAN 03:54:25 03:58:06 00:22:38 02:09:46 02:35:54 01:18:31 25
11 14 Maurice Clavel GER 03:54:27 04:01:24 00:22:52 02:11:19 02:37:41 01:16:46 51
12 10 Rodolphe Von Berg USA 03:54:43 03:57:50 00:22:42 02:11:25 02:37:37 01:17:06 22
13 26 Jesse Thomas USA 03:55:41 03:57:19 00:24:29 02:10:29 02:38:28 01:17:13 18
14 34 Matt Chrabot USA 03:55:47 03:58:09 00:22:38 02:09:33 02:35:40 01:20:07 27
15 17 Kevin Collington USA 03:57:02 04:01:50 00:22:42 02:12:28 02:38:40 01:18:22 56
16 18 Matt Hanson USA 03:57:51 03:59:44 00:25:06 02:14:00 02:42:36 01:15:15 36
17 50 Trevor Wurtele CAN 03:58:03 03:59:09 00:24:32 02:11:32 02:39:35 01:18:28 33
18 29 Pieter Heemeryck BEL 03:58:07 04:02:51 00:22:49 02:13:26 02:39:45 01:18:22 63
19 21 Ivan Tutukin RUS 03:58:15 04:02:36 00:23:16 02:16:22 02:43:08 01:15:07 60
20 32 Jackson Laundry CAN 03:58:38 04:01:41 00:24:09 02:09:42 02:37:22 01:21:16 54
21 44 Chris Leiferman USA 03:59:00 04:04:53 00:25:00 02:11:58 02:40:27 01:18:33 90
22 39 Reinaldo Colucci BRA 03:59:32 04:00:55 00:23:09 02:12:08 02:38:47 01:20:45 47
23 15 Taylor Reid CAN 03:59:33 04:06:04 00:24:06 02:11:50 02:39:26 01:20:07 107
24 38 Patrick Dirksmeier GER 03:59:57 04:03:33 00:23:09 02:15:17 02:41:56 01:18:01 71
25 35 Felipe Van de Wyngard CHI 04:00:58 04:06:37 00:22:56 02:11:44 02:38:10 01:22:48 115
26 42 Drew Scott USA 04:02:00 04:04:54 00:23:25 02:10:26 02:37:20 01:24:40 91
27 27 Carlos Javier Quinchara Forero COL 04:02:55 04:07:20 00:22:56 02:17:17 02:43:43 01:19:12 128
28 24 Mario De Elias ARG 04:03:37 04:07:54 00:24:58 02:15:22 02:43:49 01:19:48 137
29 43 Ivan Kalashnikov RUS 04:04:35 04:12:17 00:23:10 02:19:11 02:45:51 01:18:44 211
30 55 Guy Crawford NZL 04:05:04 04:12:16 00:23:23 02:13:51 02:40:45 01:24:19 210
31 54 Adam Otstot USA 04:05:30 04:09:11 00:26:18 02:15:53 02:45:41 01:19:49 158
32 33 Yvan Jarrige FRA 04:05:34 04:11:29 00:23:09 02:17:37 02:44:16 01:21:18 190
33 51 Alan Carrillo Avila MEX 04:08:23 04:13:20 00:26:01 02:15:59 02:45:30 01:22:53 221
34 46 Antoine Jolicoeur Desroches CAN 04:09:04 04:14:08 00:23:05 02:15:54 02:42:29 01:26:35 236
35 52 Eric Watson BHR 04:16:44 04:22:18 00:22:44 02:27:05 02:53:19 01:23:25 369

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Sebastian Kienle: 47% (1-1)
  • Tim Don: 13% (7-1)
  • Javier Gomez: 12% (7-1)
  • Tim Reed: 11% (8-1)
  • Sam Appleton: 10% (9-1)
  • Joe Gambles: 2% (65-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Holly Lawrence: 45% (1-1)
  • Daniela Ryf: 21% (4-1)
  • Melissa Hauschildt: 13% (7-1)
  • Helle Frederiksen: 4% (24-1)
  • Jeanni Seymour: 4% (27-1)
  • Angela Naeth: 3% (31-1)
  • Heather Wurtele: 3% (33-1)
  • Laura Philipp: 2% (46-1)

Looking forward to the 70.3 Championships in Chattanooga

In addition to the ratings for full-distance races, I’ve started to collect and analyze results for “half-distance” races. The most important race on this distance is the “70.3 World Championships”. After being held in Clearwater, Florida from 2006 to 2010 and Henderson, Nevada for three years, the race venue has been changing each year. Last year it was held in Mooloolaba, Australia, this year’s edition will be a two-day event in Chattanooga, TN before it moves to Port Elizabeth in South Africa for next year.

Roughly five months before the race in Chattanooga, this post has a look at some of the athletes we can expect to play a major role in September. The Northern Hemisphere racing is just starting to pick up, so there may be new names coming to the front or established athletes changing their focus. For example, at the start of last season hardly anyone would have picked Holly Lawrence for a top finish at 70.3 Worlds, but then she had a string of good results over the summer and went on to win the 2016 70.3 World Championships. My friends at TriZone will be posting previews for the big 70.3 races using some of my data, have a look at their site as the season progresses!

Male Contenders for the 2017 Title

There’s a pretty big group of established 70.3 racers with excellent winning chances:

  • Sebastian Kienle (23% winning chance)
    Of course the 2012 and 2013 Champion has to be considered as one of the top favorites. But in the last years the 70.3 Champs have “only” been a stepping stone for Sebi to bigger goals in October.
  • Lionel Sanders (16%)
    Lionel has been racing extremely well over the 70.3 distance, but so far a podium at the 70.3 Worlds has eluded him. For 2017 he chose to focus on improving his swim so he has a reasonable to overcome the dynamics of the big fields that made it extremely hard in Mooloolaba to catch up to the main group. He has also said that he will not race Kona and will have the 70.3 Champs as his main focus for the season.
  • Terenzo Bozzone (14%)
    The 2008 Champion continues to race well on the 70.3 distance but it seems that he shifted his focus to the full distance. But he’s an experienced athlete that is still able to mix it up with the best on the half-distance.
  • Ruedi Wild (14%)
    Ruedi was 3rd at the 2016 Champs and has continued to win races even against strong competition. Even though he hasn’t won a big title yet, he should be considered for more than “just” a podium finish.
  • Javier Gomez (12%)
    By winning the title in 2014, Javier has shown that he’ll be a top contender when he decides to focus on the longer distances. It’s not clear if that’s his plan for the 2017 season as he’d love to contend for the ITU World title – and the Chattanooga race is just one week before the ITU Grand Final in Rotterdam. If he’s still in contention for the ITU title, I expect him to skip 70.3 Worlds this season. If he isn’t, he’ll be hard to ignore.
  • Tim Reed (8%)
    Winning the 2016 title in his home country was an emotional highlight for Tim Reed – and quite a surprise.  A successful title defense is probably even more unexpected.
Some other names:
  • Tim Don (4%)
    Tim focuses his racing on the 70.3 distance and is extremely successful. But he might lack just the last 1% of top speed to contend for the title in the stacked field I expect in Chattanooga.
  • Sam Appleton (3%)
    “Appo” has been steadily improving and after a 5th place in 2016, he’ll be eying the podium in 2017.
  • Andy Potts (3%)
    Andy continues to race well but seeing him repeat his 2007 title would be a huge upset. He’s likely focusing on racing well in Kona.
Some notable athletes are missing above because they have no recent 70.3 results (and therefore no winning probability):
  • Jan Frodeno
    Jan hasn’t finished a 70.3 for more than a year – and it’s unclear if he decides to tackle qualifying for Chattanooga. He has shown in 2016 that his main focus will be on defending his title in October and that he will sacrifice other goals for this.
  • Alistair and Jonathan Brownlee
    There has been speculation that the Brownlees will be moving to longer distances – if they decide to do so they’ll be immediately “short listed” for the title. However, it’s unclear if this will happen in 2017 or later. Alistair is on a few start lists for half-distance races so there seems to be a good chance to see him race in Chattanooga.

Female Contenders for the 2017 Title

While there are easily four or more male contenders for the 70.3 title, it looks as if there are two clear front runners on the female side:

  • Holly Lawrence (45% winning chance)
    Holly was the dominating 70.3 athlete of 2016, winning a couple of big races over the summer and also capturing the title with a strong swim/bike combo. Her win at the early season race in Oceanside has shown that she’s able to race at a similar level in 2017.
  • Daniela Ryf (28%)
    The 2016 70.3 Champs was the first race that Daniela was not able to win since her Kona debut in 2014. As usual she’ll have a big racing schedule over the summer (including a rumored world record attempt in Roth), and Chattanoga may be in the middle of a big Kona training block – similar to last year when she didn’t appear to be 100% fresh for Mooloolaba.
However, this does not mean that one of these two will automatically win the title, there are a lot of other athletes to consider. Just a few examples:
  • Melissa Hauschildt (10%)
    Mel has won the title in 2011 and 2013 and was the runner up in 2016. If she’s healthy, she is one of the few that’s able to beat Daniela and Holly.
  • Heather Wurtele (3%)
    Heather has been on the podium for the last three years and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see her extend that streak. But in past 70.3 Championship races she had to make up too much time after the swim to be in contention for the title.
There are a lot more athletes that wouldn’t be a big surprise to make it onto the podium when they are healthy and decide to put a focus on 70.3 Worlds: Helle Frederiksen, Angela Naeth, Heather Jackson, Meredith Kessler, Ellie Salthouse, Annabel Luxford just to name a few.

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