Challenge Regensburg 2016 (Aug 14th) – Predictions

This isĀ Challenge Regensburgthe first race on this course. All time predictions are based on a “neutral” course.

Between 2010 and 2012 there was an Ironman Regensburg, now the race is organized by a local team around professional athlete (and new mom) Sonja Tajsich under the Challenge banner. There are some similarities to the old course, but it has been redesigned to ensure local support for the event.

Prize Money

Challenge Regensburg has a total prize purse of 38.000 EUR.

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 Chris McCormack AUS 08:32:27 08:32:37 00:48:56 04:45:30 02:53:01 44% +0% -56% (18) (29)
2 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 08:41:11 08:40:14 00:51:21 04:48:00 02:56:50 81% +4% -15% (10) 55
3 Chris Fischer DEN 08:43:11 08:46:15 00:54:18 04:44:24 02:59:29 59% +15% -26% (6) 79
4 Jan Raphael GER 08:44:16 08:39:17 00:49:03 04:46:32 03:03:42 93% +0% -7% (23) 52
5 Matic Modic SLO 08:52:37 09:00:19 00:54:28 04:51:57 03:01:12 36% +54% -10% (7) 123
6 Malte Bruns GER 08:53:46 09:04:30 00:52:14 04:50:54 03:05:38 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (143)
7 Diederik Scheltinga NED 08:58:07 09:12:32 00:52:24 04:51:39 03:09:04 18% +51% -31% (3) (169)
8 David Naesvik SWE 08:59:20 09:07:40 00:55:13 04:46:54 03:12:13 65% +0% -35% (14) 150
9 Sebastian Bleisteiner GER 09:01:37 09:03:12 00:52:09 04:54:25 03:10:04 78% +0% -22% (5) 132
10 Mike Schifferle SUI 09:02:37 09:02:12 01:00:26 04:51:26 03:05:45 86% +10% -3% (56) 128
11 Tomas Mika CZE 09:06:26 09:08:17 00:54:57 05:03:32 03:02:58 84% +16% -0% (5) 153
12 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:07:15 09:02:55 00:56:29 04:56:32 03:09:14 71% +1% -29% (94) 131
13 Christian Birngruber AUT 09:08:15 09:19:07 00:52:28 04:51:41 03:19:07 42% +0% -58% (4) (186)
14 Egoitz Zalakain ESP 09:12:07 09:15:58 00:56:08 04:59:48 03:11:11 83% +14% -3% (9) (181)
15 Stefan Eichheimer GER 09:27:30 09:38:55 00:58:35 05:01:36 03:22:19 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (243)
16 Oliver Gonzalez MEX 09:38:37 09:40:57 00:51:17 05:26:10 03:16:09 100% +0% -0% (3) 245
Zoltan Bako HUN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
Mattera Crescenzo ITA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
Udo Tschirschwitz GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
Sebastian Veith GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 Erika Csomor HUN 09:40:45 09:34:59 00:59:40 05:16:36 03:19:29 83% +0% -16% (34) 39
2 Carolin Lehrieder GER 09:49:29 09:57:37 00:54:47 05:25:43 03:23:59 30% +23% -46% (6) 84
3 Silvia Felt GER 09:57:19 09:59:51 01:02:17 05:14:00 03:36:02 58% +0% -42% (6) (90)
4 Kathrin Walther GER 09:58:57 10:24:04 01:00:23 05:18:25 03:35:09 11% +32% -57% (8) 140
5 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 10:15:56 10:24:20 01:01:10 05:24:00 03:45:46 41% +9% -50% (11) 141
6 Anne Jensen DEN 10:17:10 10:23:23 01:07:11 05:22:26 03:42:33 57% +26% -17% (5) 137
7 Jana Candrova CZE 10:32:17 10:35:58 01:07:32 05:37:41 03:42:04 75% +2% -23% (15) 160
Julia Viellehner GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The main competition will be between two athletes that have won Challenge races before: Fredrik has won in Atlantic City and Taiwan, Chris has won Challenge Denmark in 2015 and 2016. Chris McCormack is on the start list, but his last finish over the IM distance is more than three years ago, it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to play a factor. Jan Raphael is a steady German athlete he’ll want to play a bigger factor than he was able in the star-studded field at Challenge Roth. Another interesting athlete is Malet Bruns – he was the fastest agegrouper in Kona last year and is racing as a Pro this season:

  • Fredrik Croneborg: 41% (1-1)
  • Chris Fischer: 38% (2-1)
  • Chris McCormack: 9% (10-1)
  • Jan Raphael: 8% (12-1)

Female Race Participants

Veteran Erika Csomor is the top-ranked female, but Carolin Lehrieder and Kathrin Walter would like to keep the title in Germany.

  • Erika Csomor: 50% (1-1)
  • Carolin Lehrieder: 29% (2-1)
  • Kathrin Walther: 14% (6-1)
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